Worst science of the year: “‘Unprecedented’: Scientists declare ‘global climate emergency’ after jet stream crosses equator”

This ridiculous claim made me think of this line:

Sometimes, number one, you just have to bow to the absurd – Jean Luc Picard, Star Trek TNG

From RAW Story and the Tabloid Climatology department:

In a column on Tuesday, environmental blogger Robert Scribbler noted that the Northern Hemisphere Jet Stream had merged with the Southern Hemisphere Jet Stream.

“It’s the very picture of weather weirding due to climate change. Something that would absolutely not happen in a normal world,” he wrote. “Something, that if it continues, basically threatens seasonal integrity.”

“Like many extreme events resulting from human-forced climate change — this co-mingling of upper level airs from one Hemisphere with another is pretty fracking strange,” Scribbler explained. “Historically, the Tropics — which produce the tallest and thickest air mass in the world — have served as a mostly impenetrable barrier to upper level winds moving from one Hemisphere to another. But as the Poles have warmed due to human-forced climate change, the Hemispherical Jet Streams have moved out of the Middle Latitudes more and more. ”

“That’s bad news for seasonality,” he continued. “You get this weather-destabilizing and extreme weather generating mixing of seasons that is all part of a very difficult to deal with ‘Death of Winter’ type scenario.”

University of Ottawa climate scientist Paul Beckwith called the new behavior“unprecedented.”

“Our climate system behaviour continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before,” Beckwith observed. “Welcome to climate chaos. We must declare a global climate emergency.”

In a YouTube video, Beckwith said that the jet stream behavior signaled “massive hits to the food supply” and “massive geopolitical unrest.”


Umm, the tropics are an “impenetrable barrier”? Riiiight. OK have a look at Beckwith’s deer in the headlights video:

I like the “impenetrable barrier” line…as if everything in the atmosphere is somehow fixed and rigid. It reminds me of the sort of thinking that said we’d never get into the stratosphere. Even in recent times, we have been told that the stratosphere is a “barrier” to the mixing of air.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053%3C0905:RWPSAM%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Beckwith Scribbler may have borrowed that “impenetrable barrier” phrase from a  recent story about the Van Allen radiation belts.

http://www.sci-news.com/space/science-impenetrable-barrier-earth-02302.html

BTW Paul Beckwith is one of the founders of the Arctic Methane Emergency Group (AMEG) and so when I pointed out that studies have shown no methane emergency, he obviously needed to find a new emergency.

See: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/06/22/new-agu-study-negates-the-climate-methane-emergency-in-alaska/

and

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/19/the-arctic-methane-emergency-appears-canceled-due-to-methane-eating-bacteria/

Looks like Beckwith has a classic case of Emergency Deprivation Syndrome.

It’s really nothing but:

tabloid_climatologyBut, Dr. Roy Spencer really has the last laugh in a story he posted about this yesterday:


“Climate System Scientist” Claims Jet Stream Crossing the Equator is Unprecedented

June 29th, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Paul Beckwith has a masters degree in laser optics, which he has somehow parlayed into being a “Climate System Scientist” to spread alarmism about the climate system.

But his post “Unprecedented, Jet Stream Crosses Equator” suggests he knows little of meteorology, let alone climate.

A “jet stream” in the usual sense of the word is caused by the thermal wind, which cannot exist at the equator because there is no Coriolis force. To the extent that there is cross-equator flow at jet stream levels, it is usually from air flowing out of deep convective rain systems. That outflow often enters the subtropical jet stream, which is part of the average Hadley Cell circulation.

jetstream3-550x220

There is frequently cross-equatorial flow at jet stream altitudes, and that flow can connect up with a subtropical jet stream. But it has always happened, and always will happen, with or without the help of humans. Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it’s in no way unprecedented.

We’ve really only known about jet streams since around WWII…one of my professors, Reid Bryson, was one of the first to advise the U.S. military that bombers flying to Japan might encounter strong head winds. The idea that something we have been observing for only several decades on a routine basis (upper tropospheric winds in the tropics) would exhibit “unprecedented” behavior is rather silly.

I especially like this portion of Paul’s post:

“We must declare a global climate emergency. Please consider a donation to support my work..”

Nice touch, Mr. Beckwith.


About 10 minutes after publication this post was updated to correctly attribute a quote to Robert Scribbler, and the “tabloid climatology” graphic was added. – Anthony

UPDATE: Joe Bastardi adds this via email

In 1975 (or 1976) we had a cold front ( from the south) cross the equator.  I remember people flipping out about that, the awe of it, not that it was some kind of magical sign of impending doom. In any case that is even more impressive to see a trough from the south push so much to deliver such an event.

Here is the article reference in the journal:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477(1976)057%3C1435%3AASHCFP%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Here is the 1957 version:

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/092/mwr-092-11-0513.pdf

UPDATE2:

The normally pro-AGW Capital Weather Gang calls this claim “utter nonsense”.

Ryan Maue, a senior meteorologist with a doctoral degree who works at WeatherBell Analytics, agreed with Mass that the cross-equator flow is totally normal and not evidence of a joint hemispheric jet stream. “Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer,” he said.

To be clear, the hypothesis that global warming is destabilizing the polar jet stream is a legitimate idea that has been published in peer-reviewed journals, though it remains controversial. But even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. “I’d say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual,” she said.

Such information viewed through the lens of a non-specialist may come across as both credible and alarming but damages the reputation of the science when ultimately shown to be flawed.

“This fear-mongering helps no one,” Maue said.

UPDATE3: (7/3/16)

Even Michael Mann says the claim is bunk.

mann-on-jet-stream

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Jimmy Haigh

Just like every other religious nutter, they can not wait for Armageddon

Greg

It does remind me of people wearing sandwich boards saying ‘the end is nigh’ while they panhandle for spare change

Less nuts, less cheese, less lust.
Only those Englanders who frequented London’s Oxford Street in the 1970s will know what I’m on about.

Or the ones touting, “Economic collapse coming any second. Your money will be worthless. Send $19.95 for my book on how to prepare for the coming crash.”
Now if they requested five cans of green beans for the book, it might peak my interest.
And then there’s the, “How to make a fortune in the stock market. Send $29.95 for my book.” Wouldn’t making a fortune in the market be easier than writing and selling a book?

David Smith

Bazzer,
I remember who you mean!
David

Phil

I’d forgotten that guy. I once bought his weird, mis-spelt pamphlet, full of warnings against the temptations of the flesh – worth every penny! Wish I’d kept it…

EricHa

“Less nuts, less cheese, less lust.”
Great guy, there in all weathers. Only a couple of hundred yards from Cranks Restaurant in Marshal St the vegetarian restaurant famous for its nut burgers, sad looking cheese and bean bakes, spring veg tarts and grass shakes with customers who were all fully paid up members of ban the bomb, anti nuke, single black lesbian mothers squatting association and any other Hampstead/Islington bandwagon that was popular this week.
Maybe he was right. Maybe if it wasn’t for all the nuts, cheese and free love all the raving CAGW alarmist nutters wouldn’t have been spawned.

1saveenergy

It was Stanley Green
There’s even a wiki page about him
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanley_Green
brings back memory’s

Tom Yoke

I loved this quote:
“We must declare a global climate emergency. Please consider a donation to support my work..”
He’s reduced the core principle in Climate Science to just 15 words. Excellent work.

EricHa

He reminded me of Ivor Cutler
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivor_Cutler
In fact I am not convinced it wasn’t him 🙂

RoHa

I remember him, Bazzer. Less sitting, too.

n.n

Repent and invest in greener portfolios. Perhaps sacrifice/abort a virgin life for good measure.

Another Ian

Jtom
The model for all of these is that not so well known book
“How to do it and not get it”
Written by
“One who did it, got it and can’t get rid of it”

Goldrider

Why don’t they just go Old Skool and put on a purple shroud and drink the Kool-Aid?

Highest temperature ever, highest temperature in 1400 years, highest sea level rise in 28000 years, highest level of co2 in 60 million years, unprecedented temperatures in lower ocean never before seen, arctic sea ice melt greatest ever, no sea ice by 2000. Jet stream crosses equator first time ever.
They warned the skeptics about talking about weather but they routinely use the latest number that is high and make indefensible proclamations that are completely unfounded. None of these statements can be verified and are undoubtedly untrue. One thing I’ve noticed is what they did with the hockey stick that is exactly what they are doing here.
They take data that is smoothed or missing the detail to establish precise highs and lows for any period prior to the last 30 years. For instance, we have no idea if temps during the MWP were higher than today at any point, but they splice current instantaneous data with smoothed data from the past and say that a new record was reached. This is indefensible. There is no way to determine if individual days months or years were higher 1000 years ago than today. They did this with the hockey stick. They pasted tree records with recent thermostat data and showed this massive rise when the tree ring data from current records shows nothing like the movement the thermostats show.

Jeff Alberts

For instance, we have no idea if temps during the MWP were higher than today at any point, but they splice current instantaneous data with smoothed data from the past and say that a new record was reached. This is indefensible. There is no way to determine if individual days months or years were higher 1000 years ago than today. They did this with the hockey stick. They pasted tree records with recent thermostat data and showed this massive rise when the tree ring data from current records shows nothing like the movement the thermostats show.

Worse yet, we’re constantly presented with a single line purporting to be “global temperature” or “NH Temperature” or some such meaningless nonsense.

Marcus

….As a half American, half Canadian Agnostic fence sitter, I’m not sure which half of me is more embarrassed !…… Please help with your comments below !!

FJ Shepherd

A good ole, FFS handles everything, Marcus.

JohnKnight

Well, Marcus, I hear your waffling plea, and I offer this compromising perceptive;
Who is really behind/driving this reason crushing CAGW steamroller is hard to say with any certainty, but as far as I can tell, it might as well be Satan ; )

RobbertBobbert GDQ

Marcus,
I can only offer this American/English combo from the Classic Comedian Rita Rudner.
‘I wonder what our children would be like. My husband is English and I’m American. They’d probably be rude but disgusted by their own behaviour.’
We are firing so ‘ …I think men who have a pierced ear are better prepared for marriage. They’ve experienced pain and bought jewelry….’
The Big Finish ‘…Someday I want to be rich. Some people get so rich they lose all respect for humanity. That’s how rich I want to be…’

Frederik Michiels

we are doomed as the pope just announced that we are not seing CAGW, this warming is satan that is opening his gate of hell… and we’re feeling that heat as global warming.
(do i need to add the joke tag?)

beng135

Hilarious — “weather weirding”…..

Keitho

I know. I wonder what he would make of the ITCZ.

Rob Morrow

Apparently he learned science from Frank Herbert.
http://furiousfanboys.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Dune-e1287594060110.jpg

Snarling Dolphin

Lol. Worst. Movie. Ever.

Evan Jones

And one of the best books ever. (The first one, that is!)

Auto

Good Dolphin, S – it depended if you knew the book – or not.
Auto

rbabcock

I actually thought this was an Onion article. I couldn’t figure out if it was a parody or this guy was actually postulating this.

PiperPaul

That phenomenon is called, “Poe’s Law” and it is very common these days because internet + disconnect from reality + easily-led + virtue-signalling + moral cowardice + vengeful attitude + psychological projection is a very bad combination.
https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Poe's_law

Mumbles McGuirck

That’s exactly what I thought when I saw the name “Scribbler”. Is that Dickensian or what?

And Poe’s Law is an example of “Precession of Simulacra”.
I was going to supply explanatory link but found this funny and insightful guide that does a brilliant job:
http://www.continentcontinent.cc/index.php/continent/article/view/91

John F. Hultquist

Please consider a donation to support my work..
Riiiight. Where do I send my donation for nonwork by a fool?
Starting a Thursday Funny?

I like your thinking, John.
Paying people to not work is being discussed among the new economy trailblazers around the world. Some avant-garde thinkers call it “Paid to Exist”.
If Paul Beckwith and the eponymous Robert Scribbler were simply paid to exist like everyone else, they could both predict whatever unprecedented disaster they wanted and nobody would give a damn.
I am warming up to the idea.
Switzerland’s Proposal to Pay People for Being Alive

Go to a cocktail party in Berlin, and there is always someone spouting off about the benefits of a basic income, just as you might hear someone talking up Robin Hood taxes in New York or single-payer health care in Washington. And it’s not only in vogue in wealthy Switzerland. Beleaguered and debt-wracked Cyprus is weighing the implementation of basic incomes, too. They even are whispered about in the United States, where certain wonks on the libertarian right and liberal left have come to a strange convergence around the idea — some prefer an unconditional “basic” income that would go out to everyone, no strings attached; others a means-tested “minimum” income to supplement the earnings of the poor up to a given level.

MarkW

“I am warming up to the idea.”
Global Warming, there’s nothing it can’t do.

John,
it would also be much cheaper because we would not have to measure if Beckwith’s brain shows any electrical activity. It would boil down to a simple question: *)
Does he have a pulse?

Even better, conservatives think, such a program could significantly reduce the size of our federal bureaucracy. It could take the place of welfare, food stamps, housing vouchers and hundreds of other programs, all at once: Hello, basic income; goodbye, H.U.D. Charles Murray of the conservative American Enterprise Institute has proposed a minimum income for just that reason — feed the poor, and starve the beast. “Give the money to the people,” Murray wrote in his book “In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State.” He suggested guaranteeing $10,000 a year to anyone meeting the following conditions: be American, be over 21, stay out of jail and — as he once quipped — “have a pulse.”

———-
*) I am sure Messrs. Obama and Trudeau would somehow settle that “being American” thing for the greater good of the collective …

John,
It would also be much cheaper because we would not have to measure if Beckwith’s brain shows any electrical activity. It would boil down to a simple question: *)
Does he have a pulse?

Even better, conservatives think, such a program could significantly reduce the size of our federal bureaucracy. It could take the place of welfare, food stamps, housing vouchers and hundreds of other programs, all at once: Hello, basic income; goodbye, H.U.D. Charles Murray of the conservative American Enterprise Institute has proposed a minimum income for just that reason — feed the poor, and starve the beast. “Give the money to the people,” Murray wrote in his book “In Our Hands: A Plan to Replace the Welfare State.” He suggested guaranteeing $10,000 a year to anyone meeting the following conditions: be American, be over 21, stay out of jail and — as he once quipped — “have a pulse.”

———-
*) I am sure Messrs. Obama and Trudeau would somehow settle that “being American” thing for the greater good of the collective …

That is totally what welfare is in America. The Democrats keep fighting for the poor(food stamps, welfare, medicare, housing subsidies, the list goes on, and now they are clamoring to make US minimum wage basically a “living wage”…for idiots without a skill except to facebook and instagram….and complain about the rich folk ruining their lives….sigh.

schitzree

Honestly, with how many people are on welfare in the US, something like a universal ‘basic’ income that goes out to everyone would seem to be both fair and reasonable. the problem I see with it is that a significant portion of the population are going to be satisfied with it and never bother getting a job. once all those people drop out of the workforce you’ll need to increase taxes on the ones remaining to pay for the program and that will convince some that their work isn’t worth the extra pay they’ll get out of it, and drop out as well. And so on and so on, and endless spiral. Or at least endless until you reach a point that the workers can’t produce enough to pay for all the non-workers.
And that doesn’t even take into account the non-workers voting in politicians who will increase their ‘Basic Living Stipend’. Anyone who’s read David Weber’s Honor Harrington series knows where that inevitably leads.
Now, maybe in a post scarcity economy where the creation of wealth has been automated such an idea could be implemented. But we aren’t there yet. And even then there are probably pitfalls that we can’t even imagine now. Heck, with enough automated wealth creation we might not even need money for deciding what we can have, at least materially. Star Trek’s worldview brought to life.

EricHa

I was thinking of something similar on a recent visit to the job centre during a small gap in employment. It isn’t just signing on anymore. Now you get assigned a Jobs Coach and are allocated a 15 minute slot where some jerk who has only ever looked for a job 2 or 3 times in their lives gives you ‘advice’ on how to write a cv and where to look to find a job. While you are waiting for your 15 minute coaching slot you notice that most of the Jobs Coaches aren’t actually coaching anyone and your own personal Jobs Coach won’t acknowledge your presence until the second hand on the big clock reaches 12. Then the session starts and you have to put up with 15 minutes of the condescending jerk telling you you aren’t looking hard enough and maybe you would like to come in for the 2 hour afternoon humiliation session.
The 15 minute coaching sessions start at 10am until 12am so the jerk on a high job centre salary with a superannuated final salary pension scheme only sees 8 people a day 40 people a week. if that, who get £70 each that is £2,800 paid in benefits. Salary costs for said jerk will be in the region of £2,800 then there is desk cost, building costs, security guard costs, rates, computer centre costs, several other office overheads, several layers of management locally and nationally, ministerial costs, travel and expenses, training costs at all levels. etc. etc
The actual costs of paying out of work benefits must be four or five times higher than the actual money received by out of work people. It would be cheaper to get rid of all those non jobs and just pay £70 to everyone in the country working or not and lower everyone’s tax code by 3 points to get it back if you are employed. Then all those jerks who are highly qualified at job coaching and seeking can put their talents to good use and go and find a proper job!!

Evan Jones

The idea is viable in a successful society of huge wealth produced in large part by automation. But this is not the time for it. Not yet.

emsnews

The plan is called ‘inflation’.

And long as he is well compensated financially, and treated with great respect, Beckwith truly means well. A lifetime of working with laser optics may not have prepared him to be a spokesman for the intertropical convergence zone jet stream behaviours. Strictly speaking, no one person is competent to speak with authority on the climate as a whole.

Auto

alf
A very true statement: –
“Strictly speaking, no one person is competent to speak with authority on the climate as a whole.”
There are some – including certainly several contributors on here, who can certainly speak with knowledge – and expertise – on m a n y elements of ‘climate’.
That said – and despite the mantra of Mann’s co-religionists – the science is not fully settled.
That does mean ‘send money’.
And if honestly spent and honestly reported – fine.
And that is going to happen under the present [pre POTUS Election 2016] arrangements?
Yeah. Right!
Auto – loving two positives making a negative!

tadchem

“Our climate system behaviour continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before.” – Paul Beckwith
“There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy”. – William Shakespeare
‘Unprecedented’ merely means Beckwith’s baseline of experience is inadequate to include such a phenomenon, and suggests his imagination is equally unable to have envisioned the possibility.

Taphonomic

The amount of times the term “unprecedented” is used by climate scientists is unprecedented.

Tom in Florida

Perhaps they simply do not know what unprecedented means.

They keep using that word …

” I do not think (that word) means what you think it means.” – Inigo Montoya (Princess Bride)

JohnWho

It sometimes appears that there are a lot of words that they use that don’t mean what they think they mean.

David Chappell

“When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.” Alice Through the Looking Glass

RoHa

Some of our local newsreaders can’t even pronounce it. They say “unpreecedented”.

LdB

Actually Roy missed what he was saying that the jetstreams are switching sides in a figure 8 dance. I agree with Anthony’s view that there is probably nothing new in that just the real time sites to allow us armchair experts have only been online a short time.
The ocean currents are doing the same dance right now so I doubt there is anything special going on
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/orthographic=208.25,0.55,437/loc=-149.521,-0.369

Paul Coppin

The University of Ottawa/Université d’Ottawa is vying very hard to wrest the title of “Worst Educational Institution in Canada” away from the perennial favourite, Ryerson University. Correlation may not be causation, but is it a coincidence that the president of U d’O was Canada’s worst Attorney General in past Liberal governments?

Steamboat McGoo

“…vwying vewy hard to vwest…”. Fixed that for ya.

Ian L. McQueen

How does Carleton Univ (also in Ottawa, I believe) add up in this comparison? I am thinking of their School of Journalism in particular.
Ian M

Paul Coppin

I actually know a Carleton journalism grad quite well. She’s a sharp, competent, together kind of girl, not easily fooled… which is probably why she can’t get a job in journalism. After 10 years of working for the Cdn federal government, bailing out a particular division and going nowhere, she quite the civil service and went with a health sciences administration, which was a tad ironic because she was in a fight with her supervisor over a health issue that had her on reduced hours, and they kept sending her back to the health authority for more documentation. She saw an ad while there for a better suiting, higher paying position, and oopsie, TTJ&SI.
No journalism school in Canada has a good rep, mostly because virtually no journalist in Canada has a good rep. Overall, tho, as a B list college, Carleton generally is respected. U d’Oh , not so much.

Paul Coppin

Urggh – “quit the civil service…”

Another disaster that just ain’t so. We do seem to be running at least two a week.

RH

This guy doesn’t know what he’s talking aboot.

Bruce Cobb

Or about.

BruceC

He could be Scottish?

Steve Lohr

Or, he could have an illness…….or something.

Mumbles McGuirck

RH

Bruce, it was a joke. Hoser.

Bruce Cobb

So was mine, eh?

Gentle Tramp

Such lamentable tabloid stunts are only thinkable in an atmosphere of a common consensus between zeitgeist-“scientists” and uncritical MSM – So it doesn’t matter whether such a claim is ridiculous or not, as long there will be a juicy headline…
BTW: Speaking of consensus “science”, here goes another portion of previous “settled science” down to the garbage pile of historic nonsense… :
http://www.bmj.com/content/353/bmj.i1246

Gentle Tramp

And here is just one more brand-new study showig how wrong “settled science” can be after taking a second and really critical look:
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0158118

Gentle Tramp

Ooops – showing – of course… 😉

These may be true, but as we saw with the ‘salt wars’, it doesn’t matter. There are too man people with career invested in the whole notion of “fat bad!” that this wont change the dietary recommendations for decades.

Here are a couple of thought-provoking questions to ask anyone who accuses others of being anti-science: Would you book a flight on an airplane that was as unreliable as weather forecasts more than ten days in advance? Or whose landings were as inconsistent as the frequently changing dietary recommendations from nutritional research?

http://www.evolutionnews.org/2016/06/theres_no_grand102935.html

Jeff Alberts

Would you book a flight on an airplane that was as unreliable as weather forecasts more than ten days in advance?

Ten Days??? I wouldn’t fly in a plane that was as unreliable as a weather forecast is ten HOURS in advance! Hell, sometimes even ten MINUTES!

Steve Oregon

He said, “This is new as far as I am aware”
OMG that’s impressive science.
As far as I am aware aliens are living among us.

n.n

Operating outside of the scientific domain (e.g. inference, prophecy) is so unbecoming an aspiring “scientist”.

mkelly

If there was no mixing of hemispheric air masses how did all that freon get to the South Pole?

Matt Bergin

+ 2,000,000
I was wondering who would notice that little inconsistency.

J PAK

Significant levels of CFCs were NOT found in the Antarctic stratosphere. They found chlorine and assumed it must have come from CFCs when in all probability the Cl came from Mt Erubus when it was erupting.

Mark from the Midwest

He’s probably confusing it with crossing the proton streams, like in Ghostbusters. It’s an easy mistake to make when your background is in laser optics.

Oh you laugh now (and made me laugh hard too) but when Gozer shows up in the form of a 112 feet tall marshmallow “Mann”, it will be the guy with the laser beams that saves the world from him and we both know it. *huge grin*

F. Ross

Run, run, the sky is failing!

Could this be the same Paul Beckwith, who forecast in March 2013 that all the Arctic sea ice would disappear that summer?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/12/03/shock-news-another-climate-scientist-cocks-up/
Or maybe it’s the Paul Beckwith who claimed, on the basis of one EF-5 tornado, that climate change was making tornadoes stronger, when the reverse is happening?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2013/12/04/more-junk-science-from-paul-beckwith/
Surely not!!

Rob Morrow

Clowns like this guy are the reason Stephen Harper “muzzled” government scientists. If you ask me, he should have spayed and neutered them too.

That muzzling only applied to scientists working for government agencies, not those in universities.

rw

I recognized the name too. I’m sure I also saw a reference to a prediction by the same individual of a multi-meter rise in sea level in a few decades.
What intrigues me is that, among other things, he seems utterly shameless. I would have been nonplussed if my Arctic ice prediction turned out to be so far off, but he seems utterly unfazed. I will have to look back at a book by Jon Ronson that I just read called The Psychopath Test. I can’t remember all the diagnostic signs, but I’m sure that there’s some similarity to the present case.

TA

Joe: “In any case that is even more impressive to see a trough from the south push so much to deliver such an event.”
Do you think this trough will push north of the equator?

pbweather

OMG. This guy has no idea about tropical meteorology. How many of these self proclaimed climate scientists know as little about weather and climate as this guy? My money is on a lot.

simple-touriste

How many “peer” “reviewer” in biomed and MD understand a thing about statistics and the p-values they worship?
Even less than the number of climate scientists who know about the atmosphere.
How else can you explain the attitude WRT vaccines? Does a study that shows an elevated risk of vaccine no reaching the arbitrary .05 level somehow demonstrates the safety of the vaccine? This is what many “scientists” believe. (The cult of vaccines is just the most preposterous demonstration of the pseudo science in medicine.)

Oleaginous Outrager

Please use the correct terminology. They’re not “peer reviewers”, they’re “proofreaders”.

97% maybe?

This guy is doing his job and staying on message.
Any weather that is weird or strange or can be made to look that way is a religious sign of the end times. It is all in the Bible there someplace. St. John of Someplace or the Other warned us a while back that CO2 would be the instrument of God’s punishment for mankind’s sins, SUVs, heating, and incandescent bulbs.
Yes, this guy is right on message. He understands the narrative.

John M. Ware

How appropriate that this material comes from the pen (computer, whatever) of a man named Scribbler.

This is no surprise if you know anything about weather and climate. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is not coincident with the geometric Equator, therefore the subtropical jet is going to cross the geometric Equator frequently. The ITCZ marks what used to be called the Heat Equator.
http://www.meteoweb.eu/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/seasonal_migration_ITCZ.jpg

Kiwikid

Tim
But why does it do it and at this time of the year

Frederik Michiels

kiwikid, reading the sources posted in the article answers your question:
start quote from source “Ryan Maue, a senior meteorologist with a doctoral degree who works at WeatherBell Analytics, agreed with Mass that the cross-equator flow is totally normal and not evidence of a joint hemispheric jet stream. “Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer,” he said.” end quoting the source.
we’re now in this transition this is a set of months from mid May till end of july. just two high pressure systems that are in the right location north and south of the equator for a equatorial crossing subtropical jet stream and you got it. (simplistic explenation just don’t forget you need tow high pressures as in the south a high pressure has the correct opposite circulation to make an equatorial atmospheric river bridge)
says enough of how often it can happen.

ferdberple

environmental blogger Robert Scribbler
===================
any relation to Ernest Scribbler, who penned the “deadly joke” that won WWII for the Allies?

PiperPaul

Heh, that’s a good one from way back.

Slipstick

Here starts out by saying “We no longer have the stable, predictable system we used too have…”. That was his first mistake. Exactly when was the climate system ever stable or predictable, except over the very short or long term? The system is inherently chaotic, consisting of innumerable interdependent circulations and couplings, with scales ranging from millimeters to thousand’s of kilometers and seconds to millennia, random volcanic and cometary inputs, and a massive variable independent primary input, resulting in aperiodic oscillations of variable amplitude and transient local deviations. The only effectively stable terms are the Earth’s rotational and orbital parameters, and even those vary slightly on a millennial scale. Interpreting a single, relatively small, “finger” peeling off from a circulation as indicative of a larger pattern is ludicrous.

Jeff Alberts

Exactly when was the climate system ever stable or predictable, except over the very short or long term?

It’s not even predictable over the short term, when all they do is rely on weather models. Forecasts for the SAME DAY in my area are frequently wrong when it comes to cloud cover and precipitation. Often it will be raining at the very moment they say it isn’t. They can sometimes brute force it and get something close to right, but it’s pretty much a WAG.

This is what happens when people who haven’t studied either weather or climate start blogging about weather and climate. They write up sensationalist nonsense. Spencer and Bastardi know about weather and do a good job of debunking this nonsense from non-scientists. Wind flow across the equator happens pretty frequently. It’s weather.

Latitude

Fire up the jet stream modulator!!!comment image

BallBounces

The phenomenon presented here is climate alarmist weirding.

TomRude

One eyed crowd correcting the blinds… Thanks for the laugh.

Bruce Cobb

What we have is a global Stupid emergency. The Stupid has built up to unprecedented levels, such that “scientists” will spew any kind of nonsense like Scribbles and Beckwitless have. They just can’t help themselves.

Steve R

Global Climate Emergency!!!???? I’m afraid my town’s Civil Alert System has fallen into disrepair.

Bob Cormack

You’ll notice, by studying this graphic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Radiocarbon_bomb_spike.svg, that it takes about 5 years to homogenize the Northern and Southern Hemisphere atmospheres.
I wonder how that happens with that “impenetrable barrier” in-between?

simple-touriste

The mother and the fetus also had an “impenetrable barrier” in-between, and then there was diethylstilbestrol (DES)!

DCA

Is it just me, or did Beckwith say “el ninyo”?

Jeff Alberts

What should he have said?

Steve R

A wall along the equator up to the tropopause should nip this problem in the bud. Another reason to vote for Trump.

Bob Boder

too far south

Roger Bournival

“Never cross the streams!”

Gentle Tramp

And don’t pay the ferryman… 😉

Just some guy

The sky is falling! The sky is falling!

James Allison

At 1.57m in the video Beckwith raises one of those telescopic back scratchers presumably to scrape that naughty Northern jet stream southwards.

Resourceguy

No credentials are needed in the game of yelling fire in the theater.

simple-touriste

I feel like academic “science” outside the hard fields is falling to pieces.
Not all scientist outputs have collapsed, but they all bath in the noxious ethical failure environnement.
Do we need to “bail out” the ethics of the university? Can we print ethics?

TimTheToolMan

I wonder if the model’s ever do it. I’m thinking not though….

Bruce of Newcastle

Sinuous Rossby waves appear to be related to low solar activity, according to a number of papers (eg link) and notably Mike Lockwood in reference to the jet stream blocking events occurring during the last solar cycle minimum.
It’s fun we are seeing climate catastropharians try to pin it on CO2 again, just as we’re seeing the solar cycle drop towards the next minimum.

bit chilly

the most astounding part of this post is the claim paul beckwith has a job …… at a university .deary me, this is the same beckwith that claimed the arctic ice was going to disappear in 2013 right ?
do universities on the other side of the atlantic do any background checks on who they employ ?

Resourceguy

Another place makes the list of schools to avoid in the college search process.

toorightmate

If I suggested that the solution to this problem is simply to move the equator, would I be thinking outside the box.
We may all have to pay an additional “move the equator” tax.

Gunga Din

Worst science of the year: “‘Unprecedented’: Scientists declare ‘global climate emergency’ after jet stream crosses equator”

A “global climate emergency”?
I guess that depends on how many “Hiroshima Bombs” the jets are carrying.
(Of course, I say that in jets..er..jest.)

Denis

So it isn’t a Hollywood storyboard?

Thomas Graney

Yes, Mr. Scribbler, we are screwed, not by the weather, but by the likes of you.

Raw Story has removed the scam report from its site without any apology for its publication.

NW sage

Darn, all a myth (at leased it mythed us). I truly was hoping that I’d finally get to breathe some of that fine air from the neighborhood of Australia. Look how wonderful THEY are.

Tom Johnson

Air is heavy. There’s about 14.7 pounds of it above every square inch of the earth’s surface. There’s a whole lot of square inches of the earth’s surface. All that air mass generally moves along with the surface below it. When it doesn’t, we call it ‘wind’. Since the equator is moving along at over 1000 mph, there’s a whole lot of momentum in the moving air at the equator. Whenever that air gets a slight trend to move south, there ain’t nuthin’ at the equator that’s gonna to stop it. (Don’t tell Trump. He might decide to build a wall there.)