Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A tremendous political drama with broad ramifications for Global Climate Policy is unfolding in Britain, as referendum votes are tallied for whether Britain should remain part of the European Union.
While the general consensus is the result is running neck and neck, with an almost 50:50 split in the vote, Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, home of the infamous Climatic Research Unit, thinks the chances of Britain voting to remain part of the EU is zero.
EU referendum rolling forecasts
03:00 Fifth forecast update
My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)
Read more: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.rv1inwb7a
The British EU referendum vote has potentially major consequences for global climate policy. Prominent greens seem to want Britain to remain part of the anti-democratic EU, because this would bind elected British politicians to continue to adhere to strong European Union green targets.
A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.
More to come, when the count is complete.
UPDATE (EW): Brexit is looking even more likely – other major polling organisations are predicting a victory for Britain leaving the European Union.
Sky News
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/06/24/voting-continues-in-brexit-referendum.html
Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe
etc.
UPDATE 2 (EW) – BREXIT Wins, Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remain, resigns. If the “Brexit Contagion” spreads, this may be a fatal political blow to the hardline green policies of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/
After 402 thoughts on Brexit, this may be interesting. Following up one of the early posts, I came across the Indiana Pi Bill, and find that the Indiana Senate decided to postpone debate on it indefinitely. As the Indiana Lower House has already passed the Bill, it is possibly that some ex-Brussellist may persuade the Indiana Senate that it should resuscitate the debate, and pass the Bill.
It has taken a long time to come to fruition, but the worm has turned, see:
The money men have already started their revenge by a totally immoral attack on Sterling. Unless they are thick as two short planks they must be aware that nothing will happen for some time so the attack on Sterling was a revenge operation for disobeying them and nothing more. Except perhaps a warning to other states thinking of leaving.
That they started when they did was one of the most remarkable pieces of prediction in financial history or more likely some highly questionable insider leaking of counts before the official release.
“The UK will not be ‘welcomed with open arms’ by the remaining European Union if it votes to ‘desert’ the 28-nation bloc in the June 23 referendum, European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker has warned.”
Such a bad loser – the European Union started out well with the Roma treaty but was driven to failure by megalomaniacal politicians and bureaucrats! It has happened with United Nations too – I just takes a lot of guts to be the first statesman to take action.
People like to have alternatives – evolution and natural selection is based on having alternatives.
“Power tends to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely. ”
-Lord Acton
The aims of the European Union were peace, economic growth, free trade, freedom to live anywhere in the Union.
Now the aim of the EU is to keep the EU as it is.
100% of the French TV channels are on full hate mode.
Bullshit.
“Bullshit”
Please elaborate
Meaning they are for or against the EU?
The big French medias were trying to have a semblance of editorial balance on Europe a few years ago, before the French referendum on the Treaty for a Constitution for Europe – which they consistently described as “not a Constitution”, despite the “constitution” literally in the title!!!! The authorized experts, commentateurs, “éditocrates” could practically say an elephant isn’t an elephant, even with the elephant on top of them. Before that French referendum, they were giving most airtime (say 3/4) to the expected winners, the pro-treaty. After the victory of the French “no”, and the failure of the PR machine, instead of giving airtime to the (projected) future winners, the “yes”, they gave airtime to the losers, the “yes”!
Now they are in full-mode: the Brexiters are exaggerating, lying, and they killed Jo Co although they did not, in a they did it kind of way (are you crazy?).
And they are even interviewing academic “economists” (like Christian de Boissieu) about how we need to punish GB and ourselves, ’cause otherwise other nations might want to leave, ya know. (!!!!!)
GB is almost treated (actually threatened) like Russia invading Ukraine.
Also, they are interviewing progressists to explain that a referendum is only a snapshot of public opinion influenced by many factors, so the result is not a thing.
So I guess here it’s pretty much the URSS paradise, only people are too uneducated to notice.
A member of “EuropaNova” said we need more civic classes (we already have courses where we learn the structures of the political institution (l’Assemblée nationale, le Sénat, le Parlement européen…)) and to send secondary school pupil abroad so that they become better European citizens (and learn more about foreign tongues, I guess).
I mean french TV is not on full hate mode as you like to imagine.
Nobody here is happy with the current form of the EU and if there was a referendum in France we could maybe expect the same kind of outcome because after decades of undemocratic decisions and political correctness people would jump at any occasion to make the “system” pay.
On the other hand there is a kind of consensus that “you don’t have to throw the baby with the bath water” (hope that expression translates well). In spite of strong opposition to the EU form and policies, on the left right and extremes, 75% of the people would vote to remain part of it.
Bottom line, people kind of understand why they voted that way but some may blame the UK for the inertia of the EU (special status on everything, vetoing of anything dear to other countries, systematic blackmailing and opposition to any reform and strong push for the ultra-liberal policies that… the brits voted against yesterday!!!). Well, I guess that’s the insular mentality for you.
So, good riddance, no hard feelings and good luck to you.
“strong push for the ultra-liberal policies that… the brits voted against yesterday”
Ultraliberal? Europe is ultraliberal now?
Europe is less socialist than France, but that’s all.
Brexit isn’t about “ultraliberal”, unless you count freedom of anyone to enter any country (and get social service money).
Magna Carta, 1215.
Peasants’ Revolt, 1380.
Charles I Beheaded, 1649.
Glorious Revolution & Bill of Rights, 1688.
Reform Act, 1832.
Brexit, 2016.
Eight hundred and one years of progress in liberty.
Hoo-boy, they are already calling for a do-over.
Elites claiming that the plebs didn’t know enough or weren’t smart enough to vote the correct way. The rulers need to strike quickly while economic ill effects outweigh immediately positive ones.
They know that soon Britain will be on the paths to prosperity of Norway and Switzerland, thanks to removing the dead hand of stifling regulation from off British ingenuity and willingness to work and earn.
So that´s the way it works – the losing part can demand a do-over – until it wins!
The EU has done that twice in the past with votes that didn’t match their expectations (AFAIK) and were openly brazen about it saying they’ll keep repeating the referendums until the voters “get it right”. I doubt that will work this time as the UK controls the referendum now.
Now: “UPDATED: UK petition calling for a Brexit re-vote gains more than 2 million signatures”
The guy was on TV, he said he created the petition as a joke. (!)
I live in Canada but travelled to the UK perhaps 50 times, and have spent considerable time there.
The UK is lovely to visit, but everything* costs about twice what it does in Canada and the USA. Why is that possible, and why is that in any way correct?
[*everything except Cadbury chocolate – yum!]
I suggest that if the UK breaks away from the strangle-hold of Europe, it will prosper and the cost of everyday goods and services will ultimately fall to levels now enjoyed by North American society.
The cost of living in the UK has become untenable. Brexit is part of the solution.
Regards to all, Allan