Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A tremendous political drama with broad ramifications for Global Climate Policy is unfolding in Britain, as referendum votes are tallied for whether Britain should remain part of the European Union.
While the general consensus is the result is running neck and neck, with an almost 50:50 split in the vote, Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, home of the infamous Climatic Research Unit, thinks the chances of Britain voting to remain part of the EU is zero.
EU referendum rolling forecasts
03:00 Fifth forecast update
My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
(81 of 382 areas reporting.)
Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.
(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)
Read more: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.rv1inwb7a
The British EU referendum vote has potentially major consequences for global climate policy. Prominent greens seem to want Britain to remain part of the anti-democratic EU, because this would bind elected British politicians to continue to adhere to strong European Union green targets.
A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.
More to come, when the count is complete.
UPDATE (EW): Brexit is looking even more likely – other major polling organisations are predicting a victory for Britain leaving the European Union.
Sky News
http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/06/24/voting-continues-in-brexit-referendum.html
Guardian
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe
etc.
UPDATE 2 (EW) – BREXIT Wins, Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remain, resigns. If the “Brexit Contagion” spreads, this may be a fatal political blow to the hardline green policies of the European Union.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/
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It’s not who votes and how that counts – it’s who counts the votes and how that is important.
Sorted!
Now, how am I going to get to sleep???!!!
Ha! I know… I’ll just pull out my copy of “Basic Statistics” and start to…… (yawn)…….read….zzzz.
I love to see all the bettors get up-ended! Every election we hear, “Oh, look at the betting markets, they always get it right! The smart money is always right!” Well tonight all of the so-called “smart money” was WRONG and turns out to be a bunch of chumps who just lost huge amounts of money because they bet on what they WISHED was true, not on any actual knowledge.
So in the future, whenever any one says “well, look at what the smart money is doing” just point out that it may turn out to all be very stupid money, indeed.
WWS
I have a different opinion. The betting money was close and the left got some backers to bet on REMAIN to shift the odds in REMAIN’s favor. The odds were shifted by a few big bets. (But small money when you consider what propaganda costs.)
When people believe the betters always get it right then it was cheap propaganda to shift those odds in favor of REMAIN. That the odds were suddenly in REMAIN’s favor was all over the news. So for peanuts REMAIN got a huge propaganda boost. And the left had about an even money chance of actually making money!
Want to bet that was not what went on?
Eugene WR Gallun
https://www.gold.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-today/
Head of steam …
http://uk.investing.com/indices/uk-100-advanced-chart
Living in Oregon I ran across a copy of The New York Times in a waiting room. I never read it now but picked it up. Below the fold on the front page was a news story?? (or more accurately an opinion piece — I don’t believe The New York Times puts much hard news on its front page nowadays) that stated IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH that this whole BREXIT thing was all Cameron’s fault BECAUSE HE ALLOWED THE PEOPLE TO VOTE ON IT!!
On its front page The New York Times was lamenting allowing people to vote! Damn! You can’t let them vote because they might do what the liberal elites don’t want!
So The New York Times says — No guns and no voting. That’s the world The New York Times wants for Americans.
Eugene WR Gallun
Thank UKIP. Cameron had to promise to hold a referendum, or the Tories would have lost due to defections to the UK Independence Party.
Well spin my nipple nuts and send me to Alaska! We’re free!
At ten o’clock ladt night remain were very confident. It’s been a long night but what a great dawn
Tonyb
After the exit polls I muttered that they might be wrong and went to sleep. This morning I reluctantly turned the TV on with blurry eyes and then barely believed them. The vote would have been significantly higher if the establishment hadn’t thrown everything at us including threats, insults and moral blackmail.
If the globalist mafia knew a practical way to attach the dead body of Jo Cox to strings, and physically use it as a marionette, they would have done it, following Burns’ example:
The Simpsons Weekend At Burnsie’s
http://www.ebaumsworld.com/videos/the-simpsons-weekend-at-burnsies/82282738/
@ur momisugly 19:50
This was the one thing the bureaucrats didn’t want, the people getting their say on what has been going on in the EU.
Now we have to get a good deal and rebuild our once Great nation.
I have been hoping and praying this will bring about an improvement throughout the whole of the EU.
Maybe just maybe they will be able to bring in a set of accounts which actually show what happened to all the money collected!
James Bull
The end of the AGW movement is inside this.
I sure hope so! This is great news. 🙂
A population psyche that wants self rule certainly won’t like dictation from the UN or other large imposing organizations.. I don’t think it is just the EU…. It is the world.
The UN, by similarity, will take a kick in the head.
Paul – you are sooooo right! What a fantastic day. Cheers, mate. 🙂
For a change the people have won a victory, this is a huge victory for most of readers who follow this wonderful website. The EU is toast and so are the warmist.
I could not be happier.
+1000
Upshot could be Northern Ireland joining the Republic. Dublin regime is no longer dominated by the Catholic Church, so there is less reason for Protestant majority Ulster to remain separate. Divorce is now legal in the Republic, and even abortion practically so.
Let Scotland go her own way. Once the oil runs out, the National Socialist regime there will beg to be let back into the Union. Scotland can’t sell enough scotch to support its creaky welfare state without fossil fuel revenues. It’s Venezuela of the North.
That will never happen. As a former resident of the RI I can tell you NI, in particular The Orange Men, are, sadly, not the slightest bit interested in a unified Ireland.
Independence, then, or union with Scotland. But NI did like the open border and free trade with the Republic.
“even abortion practically so”
except when the mother’s life is a stake and she is going to die in horrible suffering?
Ireland is a disgusting country, shouldn’t even have been allowed in Europe.
If the UK follows up on leaving the EU, some of the constituent members don’t want to leave, and may leave the UK. It will be the never ending story.
Let NI and Scotland leave the Union. Best wishes. It’s not like the bad old days, when England couldn’t afford to have French or German allies on its land or sea borders. Now it doesn’t matter.
Do NI and Scotland really want to join the Eurozone? The Euro is probably toast. The errant provinces will soon beg, beg, to stay in the Sterling Zone. Like the Twilight Zone, only more concrete.
Why would Scotland and NI want to join a disintegrating Europe? How would they pay their fees? Lurking in the background is Greece whose financial problems have still not been resolved. The EU has become bloated and cannot absorb more countries. Any way, there are four other countries in the queue to join.why would either home nation be allowed to jump the queue?
Tonyb
It’s not a matter of being allowed. The EU would welcome new (former) members at this juncture, whether they could pay their fees or not. Scotland could, as long as the oil lasts.
But you’re right that other countries will follow UK’s lead, at least in holding referenda, if not in voting to bail on the rat-infested, leaky, sinking Commie ship.
The EFTA was OK, but when it became the EC and EU, with its own unaccountable, tyrannical regime and currency, but without a genuine popular government to back that currency, it was time to leave. Way overdue. At least Britain never joined the Eurozone.
If Scotland and Northern Ireland leave UK and join the EU on their own would that mean they would need the formal things like passports, customs, tariffs etc to enter or trade with the UK? It would definitely make the immigration issue interesting.
My guess is that entering Scotland from England would be like going from the US to Canada, ie passport yes, but visa no. Used not to even require a passport.
I doubt that punitive tariffs are going to happen. Germany, which basically rules the EU, trades heavily with Britain. Angela dare not slap tariffs on British goods, since retaliation by London would cost her more than it would hurt Merrie Olde.
Garbo
The eu has already got Monrovia Albania and Serbia lined up for membership. Why would they put another two economic minnows ( with due respect to two lovely countries)to the head of the queue?
Anyway They would be new countries not an old country rejoining so I can not see the prospective members mentioned putting up with the queue jumping
Tonyb
If NI does NOT leave the UK, they will need passports etc to drive down the road into Eire – since the economies and even the road system are so inter dependent it will be a massive blow to NI.
going to the shop? don’t forget your passport now!
“Griff June 24, 2016 at 4:25 am”
You are so uninformed. Not only do you know nothing about climate, you know nothing of the relationship between NI and RI. Too funny! Brexit will do nothing to that relationship as it was not a problem before the UK entered the EU and won’t be after the UK exits.
@LdB: It’s doubtful – the UK had open border agreements with Ireland predating the EU by decades, which remain in force. People would laugh at the thought of Scottish / English border guards / passport checks even with an independent Scotland. A lot depend on how far EU bureaucrats and political elites are prepared to go with a ‘scorched earth’ policy to save their jobs. If they have any common sense they will do this with carrots rather than sticks and do their best to preserve free trade. If they resort to sticks, they might scare the little people of Europe into keeping quiet in the short term, but in the long run they will overthrown by a European population as, if not more, disaffected than the UK’s (especially when they realise they have been forced to fund the goliath climate scam). Even if the EU imposes tarrifs, chances are the NI borders (and Scottish in the case of Independence) would become a popular smuggling route and the UK government would look the other way for smaller players – it would probably do the local economies a lot of good in any case..
The Swiss don’t have any trouble visiting France, Germany or Italy.
Tony,
Think you mean Montenegro rather than Monrovia.
Griff: “If NI does NOT leave the UK, they will need passports etc to drive down the road into Eire”
No they won’t.
You’re making stuff up again.
A lot of French people work in Switzerland, where they get better salaries and are mostly the “poor workers” there.
They get health assurance in Switzerland but the our government insist on them paying for the Sécurité Sociale, which is an illegal demand (see French and European law).
France doesn’t have an “NHS” so people should be free to choose their social insurance (except for “family” obviously), but the government torments those who do. Lastly, the patently illegal SS courts have been suppressed.
The French government is desperate to hide the fact that without a “legal” security system like NHS, people in Europe are free to choose their social insurance. The European Commission is lying about that to help the French government.
The evidence and the experts quite definitely predicted a narrow lead for Bremain.
At 2a.m. all of that fell apart when the bookies odds hit even both ways and around that time the pound may have collapsed!! Hurrah.
I should perhaps have cut my exposure, but I was not concerned in the days leading up to the vote, since evidence and experts pointed to a 75-80% certainty that this would not occur.
Hurrah, for evidence and expertise. Which sometimes guides us to believe in things which are not the case.
However, by some intriguing coincidence, the Brexiteers themselves have been formerly (but informally) charged with tending to ignore “evidence” and “experts”.
On many matters including the climate change consensus. As observed here:
http://www.euractiv.com/section/uk-europe/news/brexit-campaign-leadership-dominated-by-climate-sceptics/
“The biggest political revolution in Britain since the Peasants’ Revolt of 1381”
That overlooks beheading Charles I.
Play it LOUD AND LONG.! Long live the QUEEN.
I suspect the Queen is trying to outlive her son Charles – for the sake of Her Country, of course. Should Charles predecease her, Andrew would be next in line.
No, William would be next in line. Under the old inheritance laws, rule passed to the oldest son of the current ruler. Now rule passes to the oldest child, regardless of sex. Currently, William’s son George is third-in-line to the throne.
I pray for the health of (Canada’s) Queen every day. “Please Lord, let our Queen outlive her embarrassment of a son!”
Vigilant,
About time the sexual succession issue was settled. While France had its Salic Law, the question was moot in England and later the UK. This led to at least two terrible civil wars that spring immediately to mind, ie The Anarchy and the Wars of the Roses, but maybe others.
Henry V felt that, contrary to the Salic Law, he was rightful claimant to the French throne, yet, hypocritically, his claim to the English crown was because his dad, the usurper Henry IV, was the son of John of Gaunt, the third surviving son of King Edward III, rather than through Philippa, daughter of Lionel of Antwerp, the second son, the line of the eldest son, Edward, the Black Prince (of Wales) having ended with the murder by Henry’s dad of his cousin Richard II.
Germany is now the singular economic leader in Europe and they are soft towards Russia.
Are we seeing the emergence of a new soviet empire?
Reading the comments here you would believe the UK is (now was) a downtrodden state under the yoke of a malevolent EU, and that the more than 48% that voted to remain are all misguided, unpatriotic cretins, probably communists, warmistas or worse. Do you really believe this guff?
The leave side has won by a majority, but has swapped one set of problems for another. The skies are not necessarily bluer.
Google the “Brexit Movie”. You might just see the light…..
I’ll save you the effort…Watch this and see if you don’t think BREXIT was a great idea. It makes no mention of climate change or immigration btw…….
This is about Economics and Sovereignty
Published on May 12, 2016
BREXIT THE MOVIE is a feature-length documentary film to inspire as many people as possible to vote to LEAVE the EU in the June 23rd referendum.
BREXIT THE MOVIE spells out the danger of staying part of the EU. Is it safe to give a remote government beyond our control the power to make laws? Is it safe to tie ourselves to countries which are close to financial ruin, drifting towards scary political extremism, and suffering long-term, self-inflicted economic decline?
BREXIT THE MOVIE shows a side of the EU they don’t want us to see: the sprawling self-serving bureaucracy, the political cynicism, the lack of accountability, the perks, the waste, the cronyism, the corruption.
BREXIT THE MOVIE cuts through the patronizing intellectualism of the noble, higher goals of ‘Project Europe’, to reveal the self-interestedness of the political-bureaucratic class which runs and benefits from the EU.
BREXIT THE MOVIE highlights the danger of becoming a prisoner in an insular, backward-looking Fortress Europe. And it explores the exciting opportunities that open up to us when we look beyond the narrow confines of the EU.
BREXIT THE MOVIE looks to the future, arguing forcefully and persuasively that it is safer and wiser to live in a country which is free, independent, self-governing, confident and global.
For more information, visit http://www.brexitthemovie.com
Category
People & Blogs
Blue skies for many. Sovereign they are now
Free from the tyranny and rules of the EU. Free not to have their money taken for other people’s desire to take. I’d say blue skies.
Dull skies for 48.1% of the voting population?
While I don’t like to be commanded from Brussels either (to many EU laws don’t take into account the differences in population density and industrialization of the different countries), I don’t think that Britain will get that “free” from the EU as they wish.
If they want to stay a preferred trade partner of the rest of the EU, they will be forced to implement the same (environmental and economical) rules as they have today, but without any participation in the decision making. That is already the case for Norway and Switzerland…
@Alan Kendall: No, not dull skies for the 48%; they will benefit equally from the gains of the majority. And because of that majority they will get their democratic voice back. None of us shall any longer be ruled by unelected bureaucrats in Brussels. That alone is a result.
You’re right. The sky is not necessarily bluer. it is extremely discouraging that 48% voted to Remain.
Three Cheers for the UK! Western Civilization isn’t dead yet.
A very big “Thank You” to all you non-Brits above who have posted your congratulations and good wishes for our future.
At last, after 40 years, I won’t feel so ashamed when I meet our Commonwealth cousins who rightly pointed out when we joined the Common Market (as the EU was originally known then) how we had stabbed them in the back. To you, my heartfelt apologies.
I am sooooooooooooo happy at this moment. And now I have to go and wake Mrs Ozade and give her the good news :)))))))
Amen to that, Luc.
Hopefully we (OZ and NZ) can regain our status as Britain’s Dairy, lost to the ‘Common Market’. We certainly can do with it in OZ.
I voted for Britain to leave the European union and I think this is the first time I have been on the winning side on any election. I hope that our standard of living will not continue to be forced down by mass immigration from Europe and that we will no longer be forced to comply with European green energy targets, which makes energy more expensive for the ordinary person.
Briton,
Your punishment for this imprudence will be more fingerwagging, “get to the back of the queue” scolding from the US president. We rebels have been putting up with that here in colonies for 7 1/2 yrs. Now you’ll get some more from the Worst Ever US President.
Im figuring the panic in WH will result in Obama letting our Attorney General off her leash and biting Crooked Hillary so as to replace her with Biden.
“Briton,
Your punishment for this imprudence will be more fingerwagging, “get to the back of the queue” scolding from the US president.”
Trump will return Great Britain to the front of the line in a little less than seven months from now. He said so today in his speech in Scotland.
Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last!
I don’t dare go on Facebook because all the family young ‘uns tended towards remain. But maybe if I stick to lower case I could get away with one small yeeee-haw
1 – In the UK we get 8% of our electricity from the EU (5.1% from France & 2.8% from Holland )
National Grid says Spare electricity capacity, would be 2% this year, (Three years ago the margin was 17%) an additional 2% is available by turning off industry.
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZJXq8vCbzKs9rbR3pCWwrg52mW9RjPYULE39vXw3XDkvFDMzAKQ
UKs energy mix
euanmearns.com
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSbXzRDy3cuE31T-o9ngFGTSjoStLvML89jUknW8AxsVv8H3PKOPA
2 – 100% of our Nuclear is owned by France (along with our water & sewage) & ~ 80% of all our power generating capacity is foreign owned/controlled.
3 – Sterling has fallen to its lowest level since 1985 – marking a sharper dive even than on Black Wednesday in 1992.
4 – You do the maths…
This is mainly the result of Ed Millerbands 2008 ‘Green’ energy bill (in the Bliar government), nothing to do with the EU.
If we have a harsh 2016/17 winter, people will pay dearly for that decision…with their lives.
The only good thing to be gained from Brexit –
It will be “massively damaging” to the UK’s crazy renewables sector…according to Energy and Climate Change Minister Lord Bourne
“You do the maths”
Heh.
Se what being in the EU did?
It sapped GB of vital resources and capabilities.
Sunk-cost fallacy much? Would’ve been better to get out decades ago when the creeping socialist tentacles from Brussels hadn’t yet crossed the channel, but better late than never.
If Britain can ax the Green nonsense and fire those mothballed coal plants back up, energy won’t be a problem, and the country will be in a stronger position to unplug itself from the EU’s lotus-eating dependency machine.
“100% of our Nuclear is owned by France”
100% WRONG
EDF is NOT “France”. France doesn’t own nuclear power plants.
100% British nuclear is owned by EDF…
84% of EDF is owned the French state.
EDF – Électricité de France S.A. is a French electric utility company, 84% owned by the French state.
Founded: April 8, 1946, Paris, France
“The company, which is 84-per cent state owned “
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8cdd1d32-3075-11e5-91ac-a5e17d9b4cff.html#axzz4Cd9Yptkl
http://m.fin24.com/fin24/economy/france-finalising-uk-nuclear-plant-deal-minister-20160417
EDF could be 100% owned by the French State, it still wouldn’t be France.
EDF is EDF and there are still laws in France!
Well we finally plucked up the courage and voted to leave the anti-democratic European Union. With any luck this whole thing will unravel and mankind can once more move forward, rather than stagnating and trying to return to the 18th-century. With it will go I hope with my blessing all of the politically correct claptrap that is done so much to contaminate social dialogue over the last few decades. Perhaps to we will see less of the anti-white anti-male campaigning that has done so much to harm relations between the sexes. Well done the people of Britain.
Hear, hear!