Dr. Leif Svalgaard advises us of this paper via email. Apparently some people want to ring the “cosmic dinner bell” by broadcasting powerful radio transmissions to get the attention of possible extra-terrestrial civilizations. This paper sums up the argument.
The Very Large Array (VLA) of radio telescopes at night.
Abstract:
There is an ongoing debate pertaining to the question of whether Earth should initiate intentional and powerful radio transmissions to putative extra-terrestrial (ET) civilizations in the hope of attracting ET’s attention. This practice is known as METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence) or Active SETI. The debate has recently taken on a sense of urgency, as additional proponents have announced their intention to commence de novo transmissions as soon as they become funded and acquire the needed time on a powerful transmitter such as Arecibo. Arguments in favor of METI are reviewed. It is concluded that METI is unwise, unscientific, potentially catastrophic, and unethical.
INTRODUCTION
In the medical sciences, proposed experiments must pass ethics review boards. Some experiments are simply too dangerous or unethical to be performed, certainly not just on one’s own lonely say-so. We do not clone humans; we do not conduct table top experiments with smallpox; and we no longer inject human subjects with pathogens in order to trace the course of a disease or to see how long it might take for subjects to die. Though a commonplace in medical research, astronomers face no such ethical reviews, since theirs is normally an observational science only. When it comes to METI (Messaging to ET Intelligence, also called or Active SETI), which is not observational but manipulative, and on which may hinge the very fate of the world, perhaps they should.
Do space aliens present a clear and present danger and, if so, is there anything we can do about it? There is not one scintilla of credible evidence that Earth has ever been visited by space aliens, much less that aliens have sought to do damage to the Earth. However, extraterrestrials (ET), if they exist, may soon learn that Earth harbors technologically advancing life forms, and that may change everything. Our electromagnetic (EM) emissions leave Earth at the speed of light. EM that left Earth in 1930 has already swept over approximately the nearest 7,000 stars.
That said, Earth’s EM leakage is either very weak, not pointed at nearby stars, or both. Further, the Earth grows quieter annually as more information is transmitted via cable, the Internet, and satellites rather than terrestrially over the air. Unless ET’s receivers are both powerful and omnidirectional, they will not detect us.
ET’s receivers could be omni-directional, but unable to pick up a signal so weak as the proverbial I Love Lucy. For example, the gigantic Arecibo radio telescope could not detect terrestrial TV transmissions, if broadcast from the distance of our nearest neighboring stars. Alternatively, an ET receiver could be very powerful, but it might take millennia for it to get around to slewing in our direction, given the large number of potential targets. By the time Earth returns into ET’s crosshairs for a routine check in, we might have gone silent.
The first modern SETI search was conducted by Frank Drake in 1960 [1]. From that date until today, there has been no agreed upon detection of an alien signal. Some are now arguing that since so much time has elapsed without success, it is time to announce ourselves to ET by using our most powerful radio telescopes as transmitters in order to proactively send our signals to Earth’s nearest stars in an effort to attract ET’s attention. Arecibo, for instance, is so powerful that, when used as a transmitter, its signal is potentially capable of being detected at vast interstellar distances.
A new consideration of the METI debate assumes some urgency at this time. When the SETI Institute (SI) rejected a proposal from Vakoch and Shostak to initiate immediate high power radio transmissions directed to Earth’s neighboring stars, Vakoch founded another organization, METI International [2, 3], with the same intent [4, 5]. Fearing a gathering storm, a cohort of SETI scientists and thinkers issued a statement in opposition to METI in February, 2015 [6]. John Gertz
The current paper will further consider the arguments of METI’s proponents (METI-ists) and opponents.
…
CONCLUSIONS
Whenever one hears a “scientist” assert that ET must be altruistic, or that ET surely knows we are here, or that the closet ET civilization is at least x LY away, ask to see the data set on which they base their conclusions. As of today, no such data set exists. In the absence of any evidence whatsoever, whether one believes that the extraterrestrial civilization we might first encounter will be benign, in the fashion of Spielberg’s Close Encounters of the Third Kind, or ET, or malicious, as in Ridley Scott’s Alien, or robotic, or something else entirely is strictly a matter of one’s personal taste. SETI experiments seek to learn what actually resides or lurks out there in the universe. METI plays Russian roulette without even knowing how many bullets are in the chamber.
It would be wiser to listen for at least decades if not centuries or longer before we initiate intentional interstellar transmissions, and allow all of mankind a voice in that decision. The power of SETI has grown exponentially with Moore’s Law, better instruments, better search strategies, and now thanks to Milner’s visionary investment, Reviewing METI: A Critical Analysis of the Arguments meaningful funding. The advances are so profound that it is reasonable to say that the SETI of the next 50 years will be many orders of magnitude more powerful than the SETI of the last 50 years.
Shostak, perhaps METI’s most articulate proponent, knows this and has widely predicted that we will achieve Contact within the next two decades. So why can he and his fellow METI-ists not wait at least until then before initiating transmissions?
A METI experiment based on an actual methodology that includes a plan to receive ET’s reply, might leave some to call that method madness, but at least it would qualify as actual science. Sending a message without a practical plan in place to receive a return message, leads to the conclusion that METI transmissions are like a Hail Mary, they have more in common with a faith based religion than with science. METI-ists implicitly believe that ET is omniscient (they know we are here even though our leakage is trivial); all good (ET must be altruistically interested in our welfare); and omnipotent (even though we have made no provision to receive their return message, they will make themselves known to us somehow). It is fair to ask that METI- ists not impose their religion on the rest of us.
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birdynumnum
May 20, 2016 5:08 pm
Looking forward to the day some alien space craft shows up dragging Pioneer 10 behind it, deposits it on NASAs front door step and a note descends attached to a cable.
” Is this yours?”
” If it is, would you kindly stop chucking your junk around in Space, it is making the place untidy.”
Shut up and hunker down. Don’t want to attract the attention of the Mechs (Greg benford) or Kzin (Larry Niven).
Carla
May 20, 2016 5:14 pm
Finding more and more exoplanets, all the time. Wish I could remember the last estimate. Billions?
Milky Way Galaxy
Our home galaxy the Milky Way has a radius of 34 kiloparsecs (110,000 light years) and contains 100 to 400 billion (B) stars. The Stellar Neighborhood is a small region at a distance of 8.33 kiloparsecs (27,200 light years) from its center.
Estimated Number of Habitable Worlds*
40B – 49B
Around M-Dwarf Stars
38B – 46B
Around Solar-like Stars
2B – 3B
* B = billions http://phl.upr.edu/projects/habuniverse
For a completely hilarious take on this topic, see Tim Allen’s “Galaxy Quest” with the great Alan Rickman as the Spock character. Aliens pick up earth’s transmission of the Galaxy Quest TV show and assume it is an ‘historical record’ – check it out before stirring the pot of interstellar (miss) communication.
Saw a program just this week, with Michio Kaku, saying that most of the exoplanets are “hellish”. I.e., the frequency of exoplanets that are hospitable to life appears to be much lower than was expected. Sorry, don’t remember many details, just watched it a few minutes.
@ur momisugly Ric Werme, I tend to switch channels when comes on ( That is not often these days, I rarely watch TV any longer, the Net gives anything I want, without the “******” advertising.
I think we have a moral obligation to broadcast our presence, so the intelligent races of the galaxy can avoid accidental contamination by our stupidity. I suggest the “We’re here!” message be recorded by politicians, for maximum impact. 🙂
David Ball
May 20, 2016 5:27 pm
In Arthur C. Clarke’s book, The Fountains of Paradise, he describes what to me is the most likely first contact scenario. The book is well worth your time for several reasons, that being one of them.
It might be cool to contact “aliens”, but I assume they would just be searching for the same answers to our questions.
jakee308
May 20, 2016 5:42 pm
Couldn’t we find a better use for that money than this? It serves no purpose scientifically.
That doesn’t count the more negative possibilities.
It’s like all the counting of earth like or life supporting planets they’re finding.
Until/unless we succeed in discovering a way to travel a lot faster than light, we’re never going to see those places and knowing about them serves little purpose here on Earth. Again money spent that could be used more productively elsewhere.
Let’s get out into and explore our own solar system before we start worrying about what’s 1300 light years away.
Depends on the message we transmit, dunnit? “Though I walk through the shadow of the valley of death, I will fear no evil, because I’m the meanest motherf**ker in the valley.”
Pointman
I suspect the velociraptor had nothing on a Bengal tiger, and we’ve solved that one.
Recall that most dinos had brains the size of walnuts; probably very predictable.
I think it would be better to transmit the original version than the blasphemous one. If aliens are intelligent enough to decipher it then although they won’t recognise the source they might be able to deduce that we have a moral code based on a belief in God.
Rob
May 20, 2016 6:12 pm
Does anybody else hear Monty Python’s “Universe Song” playing in the background?
McCoy,
That poetry got me upset. Fortuntely, I have something to relax me…
Everyone can benefit from this. Give it a try.
CD in Wisconsin
May 20, 2016 6:16 pm
Rather than us sending THEM a signal, there has been a lot of speculation for many years now that it was the other way around. Anybody remember the WOW! signal from Aug. 15th, 1977?
Since it was picked up and recorded, there has been of course a lot of speculation about its source including that it came from an intelligent alien source.
Now however, there MAY be a perfectly natural explanation for it: http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/space/stories/mysterious-wow-signal-may-finally-have-explanation.
Quote:
“It just so happens that two comets, 266P/Christensen and P/2008 Y2 (Gibbs), have orbits that would have put them in position in 1977 to be the possible source of the signal. Neither of these comets had been discovered yet in 1977, so nobody thought of them until now.
When comets pass close enough to the sun, they release a lot of hydrogen, and it’s possible that hydrogen being shed in this way could emit at the same wavelength as the “Wow!” signal.
Comet 266P/Christensen is scheduled to return to the same region of space as it was in 1977 on Jan. 25 2017. Comet P/2008 Y2 (Gibbs) will return on Jan. 7 2018. This means that scientists can re-analyze both comets to see if their hydrogen signature matches the “Wow!” signal. If one of them does, that would seemingly put the issue to rest….”
I’m not a scientist have been wondering about the WOW! signal for many years now. Let’s hope that this explanation for it is the correct one.
Rewrite: I’m not a scientist BUT have been wondering…. The signal was never picked up again, so the comet/hydrogen explanation certainly sounds like the most plausible one.
There are lots of comets in the solar system. If a comet was the source of the WOW signal how come we haven’t picked up similar signals from other comets?
@Roy: The comet has to get close enough to the sun (a star) to emit large amounts of hydrogen. How often does that happen? And the antenna has to be at the right place at the right time to pick up the hydrogen signal from the comet. How often does that happen?
I’m not a scientist, so I can’t answer those questions.
Life forms, even aliens would not choose to travel in space for thousands of years, unless they were exceptionally advanced, or desperate. In that case they would regard us as mere cockroaches to be crushed, or taken advantage of. We should keep quiet..
Mike the Morlock
May 20, 2016 6:19 pm
Well if they do come and they are nice and advanced in all the wonderful ways proponents hope they are, we can then breath easy, reach out to shake hands or whatever, then we knock’em on the head and steal all their stuff. Its a plan right?
michael
TA
May 20, 2016 6:33 pm
You mean all that huge universe is out there and we can’t get to it!?
Well, there is a lot about the universe we don’t know. I wouldn’t rule anything out.
Marcus
May 20, 2016 6:34 pm
….”Dr. Leif Svalgaard advise us of this paper via email.” ?
…Should that be ADVISED us ?
Only an alien could be so picky. Turn yourself in.
Tom Dayton
May 20, 2016 6:37 pm
Pointless question, because by putting a telescope not terribly far from their own star, the aliens can use gravitational lensing to detect even the weak radio signals from our street lights. We have been signaling for decades.
JustAnOldGuy
May 20, 2016 6:40 pm
I’m firmly convinced we’re in quarantine or perhaps solitary confinement. Even if the nurse or jailer hears us yelling they won’t pay any attention. It would be the cosmic equivalent of a puppy whining in the pound.
TomRude
May 20, 2016 6:45 pm
The precautionary principle taken to absurdity… next we should shut down every signal, light just in case.
Meanwhile NATO’s reckless politics might do the job much faster than potential aliens.
601nan
May 20, 2016 6:55 pm
Seems everyone on Facebook wants to say, “Hallo”, in one form or another. Then soon after the bigotry, genderism and racism emerges in a confligration of hate! Not so much different that USENET NEWS GROUPS.
I suspect that an “alien” intelligence attempting a “contact” to the peoples of Earth, will be sadly … mistaken in their …. assumptions. And therefore, need to take defensive actions for their own survival. Defensive actions means eradication of a viral and deadly life form to all others; Us.
Though unprovable, it is perhaps better to think that we Homo Sapiens Sapiens are the first and only sentient organism to emerge from the big bang, and the last.
601non wrote: “Though unprovable, it is perhaps better to think that we Homo Sapiens Sapiens are the first and only sentient organism to emerge from the big bang, and the last.”
It is said that sentience is necessary for the ability to suffer. I think a lot of different animals feel suffering at some point in their lives.
I have had a lot of dogs in my life, and I have seen them display very human traits at one time or another. My current Australian shepard talks to me like “Chewbaca” of Star Wars fame. She sounds just like him! 🙂
I don’t know why other animals could not reach the level of humans, if given enough time, and the right circumstances. We did it, and we are animals.
Logically, the universe should be teaming with life of some kind or another. If it only happened here, that would seem to be highly unusual. We would then all need to get down on our knees and thank our creator for treating us in such a special way.
Of course, if the speed of light is a real limit in the universe, then all these creatures can pretty much live out their lives unmolested by aliens, even if the universe is teaming with life.
Some migration between stars could take place as sentient beings increased in numbers and started spreading out beyond their solar system into their respective oort cloud, and started utilizing the resources located there.
Given enough time the migration would reach from one star to another, migrating across one star’s oort cloud to another star’s oort cloud. It would take a long time doing it that way. But, what else do they have to do? 🙂
Marcus
May 20, 2016 7:03 pm
..To put things in perspective, suppose we find alien life forms on another Earth-like planet, and it turns out to be populated by nothing but liberals ?? Now that is scary ! (notice I didn’t say intelligent life) !
David M. Lallatin
May 20, 2016 7:39 pm
Just in time for ID2. Trolling is chumming, in this case.
I’ll wait for the reviews of the movie, and hope the time with grandsons is better spent than it was in recent experiences.
Looking forward to the day some alien space craft shows up dragging Pioneer 10 behind it, deposits it on NASAs front door step and a note descends attached to a cable.
” Is this yours?”
” If it is, would you kindly stop chucking your junk around in Space, it is making the place untidy.”
Shut up and hunker down. Don’t want to attract the attention of the Mechs (Greg benford) or Kzin (Larry Niven).
Finding more and more exoplanets, all the time. Wish I could remember the last estimate. Billions?
Milky Way Galaxy
Our home galaxy the Milky Way has a radius of 34 kiloparsecs (110,000 light years) and contains 100 to 400 billion (B) stars. The Stellar Neighborhood is a small region at a distance of 8.33 kiloparsecs (27,200 light years) from its center.
Estimated Number of Habitable Worlds*
40B – 49B
Around M-Dwarf Stars
38B – 46B
Around Solar-like Stars
2B – 3B
* B = billions
http://phl.upr.edu/projects/habuniverse
For a completely hilarious take on this topic, see Tim Allen’s “Galaxy Quest” with the great Alan Rickman as the Spock character. Aliens pick up earth’s transmission of the Galaxy Quest TV show and assume it is an ‘historical record’ – check it out before stirring the pot of interstellar (miss) communication.
Like the three amigos in space.
A take with arguably the most lethal punchline in SF.
Saw a program just this week, with Michio Kaku, saying that most of the exoplanets are “hellish”. I.e., the frequency of exoplanets that are hospitable to life appears to be much lower than was expected. Sorry, don’t remember many details, just watched it a few minutes.
From hellish environments come hellish creatures, not a good scenario to evoke to support METI
No need to apologize, a few minutes is all that we expect anyone to watch from a Michio Kaku program….
@ur momisugly Ric Werme, I tend to switch channels when comes on ( That is not often these days, I rarely watch TV any longer, the Net gives anything I want, without the “******” advertising.
sorry I forgot what’s his name, correction, “When Kaku comes on”, (argh Friday night fingers).
Mr Myagi has a lot to answer for.
MetaMars – Consider the source … LOL
According to the Grauniad, we’re already busted.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/08/18/bizarre-craptastic-theory-from-the-guardian-penn-state-and-nasa-et-will-kill-us-because-global-warming-will-tip-them-off-that-we-are-a-bad-species/
Ho hum… what a waste of bandwidth.
Anyone who mentions “The Precautionary Principle” in the Climate Wars is forbidden from endorsing METI. Violators should be shot as double agents.
It won’t matter. We already have nano probes on the drawing board. If there is an advanced alien civilisation anywhere near us, they are already here.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/12/stephen-hawking-backs-100-million-russian-effort-to-build-a-relativistic-space-probe/
I think we have a moral obligation to broadcast our presence, so the intelligent races of the galaxy can avoid accidental contamination by our stupidity. I suggest the “We’re here!” message be recorded by politicians, for maximum impact. 🙂
In Arthur C. Clarke’s book, The Fountains of Paradise, he describes what to me is the most likely first contact scenario. The book is well worth your time for several reasons, that being one of them.
“The Mote in God’s Eye” — Niven & Pournelle, is the best 1st contact sci-fi novel IMHO.
Great subject to study to death (literally);-)
It might be cool to contact “aliens”, but I assume they would just be searching for the same answers to our questions.
Couldn’t we find a better use for that money than this? It serves no purpose scientifically.
That doesn’t count the more negative possibilities.
It’s like all the counting of earth like or life supporting planets they’re finding.
Until/unless we succeed in discovering a way to travel a lot faster than light, we’re never going to see those places and knowing about them serves little purpose here on Earth. Again money spent that could be used more productively elsewhere.
Let’s get out into and explore our own solar system before we start worrying about what’s 1300 light years away.
Depends on the message we transmit, dunnit? “Though I walk through the shadow of the valley of death, I will fear no evil, because I’m the meanest motherf**ker in the valley.”
Pointman
Yes, Pointman, until we run into the interstellar version of a velociraptor, then we’ll see who’s the ‘baddest’
I suspect the velociraptor had nothing on a Bengal tiger, and we’ve solved that one.
Recall that most dinos had brains the size of walnuts; probably very predictable.
That’s rather the point. You don’t run into apex predators, they specialise in finding you all by themselves. Hammer or the nail …
Pointman
I think it would be better to transmit the original version than the blasphemous one. If aliens are intelligent enough to decipher it then although they won’t recognise the source they might be able to deduce that we have a moral code based on a belief in God.
Does anybody else hear Monty Python’s “Universe Song” playing in the background?
Can’t avoid it.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=23Dm7sQ1C1E
I hear Vogon poetry…
McCoy,
That poetry got me upset. Fortuntely, I have something to relax me…
Everyone can benefit from this. Give it a try.
Rather than us sending THEM a signal, there has been a lot of speculation for many years now that it was the other way around. Anybody remember the WOW! signal from Aug. 15th, 1977?
Since it was picked up and recorded, there has been of course a lot of speculation about its source including that it came from an intelligent alien source.
Now however, there MAY be a perfectly natural explanation for it:
http://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/space/stories/mysterious-wow-signal-may-finally-have-explanation.
Quote:
“It just so happens that two comets, 266P/Christensen and P/2008 Y2 (Gibbs), have orbits that would have put them in position in 1977 to be the possible source of the signal. Neither of these comets had been discovered yet in 1977, so nobody thought of them until now.
When comets pass close enough to the sun, they release a lot of hydrogen, and it’s possible that hydrogen being shed in this way could emit at the same wavelength as the “Wow!” signal.
Comet 266P/Christensen is scheduled to return to the same region of space as it was in 1977 on Jan. 25 2017. Comet P/2008 Y2 (Gibbs) will return on Jan. 7 2018. This means that scientists can re-analyze both comets to see if their hydrogen signature matches the “Wow!” signal. If one of them does, that would seemingly put the issue to rest….”
I’m not a scientist have been wondering about the WOW! signal for many years now. Let’s hope that this explanation for it is the correct one.
Rewrite: I’m not a scientist BUT have been wondering…. The signal was never picked up again, so the comet/hydrogen explanation certainly sounds like the most plausible one.
If you played it backwards does a Led Zepplin track emerge?
There are lots of comets in the solar system. If a comet was the source of the WOW signal how come we haven’t picked up similar signals from other comets?
@Roy: The comet has to get close enough to the sun (a star) to emit large amounts of hydrogen. How often does that happen? And the antenna has to be at the right place at the right time to pick up the hydrogen signal from the comet. How often does that happen?
I’m not a scientist, so I can’t answer those questions.
This guy says he decoded the ‘Wow!’ signal.
Life forms, even aliens would not choose to travel in space for thousands of years, unless they were exceptionally advanced, or desperate. In that case they would regard us as mere cockroaches to be crushed, or taken advantage of. We should keep quiet..
Well if they do come and they are nice and advanced in all the wonderful ways proponents hope they are, we can then breath easy, reach out to shake hands or whatever, then we knock’em on the head and steal all their stuff. Its a plan right?
michael
You mean all that huge universe is out there and we can’t get to it!?
Well, there is a lot about the universe we don’t know. I wouldn’t rule anything out.
….”Dr. Leif Svalgaard advise us of this paper via email.” ?
…Should that be ADVISED us ?
Only an alien could be so picky. Turn yourself in.
Pointless question, because by putting a telescope not terribly far from their own star, the aliens can use gravitational lensing to detect even the weak radio signals from our street lights. We have been signaling for decades.
I’m firmly convinced we’re in quarantine or perhaps solitary confinement. Even if the nurse or jailer hears us yelling they won’t pay any attention. It would be the cosmic equivalent of a puppy whining in the pound.
The precautionary principle taken to absurdity… next we should shut down every signal, light just in case.
Meanwhile NATO’s reckless politics might do the job much faster than potential aliens.
Seems everyone on Facebook wants to say, “Hallo”, in one form or another. Then soon after the bigotry, genderism and racism emerges in a confligration of hate! Not so much different that USENET NEWS GROUPS.
I suspect that an “alien” intelligence attempting a “contact” to the peoples of Earth, will be sadly … mistaken in their …. assumptions. And therefore, need to take defensive actions for their own survival. Defensive actions means eradication of a viral and deadly life form to all others; Us.
Though unprovable, it is perhaps better to think that we Homo Sapiens Sapiens are the first and only sentient organism to emerge from the big bang, and the last.
601non wrote: “Though unprovable, it is perhaps better to think that we Homo Sapiens Sapiens are the first and only sentient organism to emerge from the big bang, and the last.”
It is said that sentience is necessary for the ability to suffer. I think a lot of different animals feel suffering at some point in their lives.
I have had a lot of dogs in my life, and I have seen them display very human traits at one time or another. My current Australian shepard talks to me like “Chewbaca” of Star Wars fame. She sounds just like him! 🙂
I don’t know why other animals could not reach the level of humans, if given enough time, and the right circumstances. We did it, and we are animals.
Logically, the universe should be teaming with life of some kind or another. If it only happened here, that would seem to be highly unusual. We would then all need to get down on our knees and thank our creator for treating us in such a special way.
Of course, if the speed of light is a real limit in the universe, then all these creatures can pretty much live out their lives unmolested by aliens, even if the universe is teaming with life.
Some migration between stars could take place as sentient beings increased in numbers and started spreading out beyond their solar system into their respective oort cloud, and started utilizing the resources located there.
Given enough time the migration would reach from one star to another, migrating across one star’s oort cloud to another star’s oort cloud. It would take a long time doing it that way. But, what else do they have to do? 🙂
..To put things in perspective, suppose we find alien life forms on another Earth-like planet, and it turns out to be populated by nothing but liberals ?? Now that is scary ! (notice I didn’t say intelligent life) !
Just in time for ID2. Trolling is chumming, in this case.
I’ll wait for the reviews of the movie, and hope the time with grandsons is better spent than it was in recent experiences.