UAH V6 Global Temperature Update for March, 2016: +0.73 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for March, 2016 is +0.73 deg. C, down a little from the February record-setting value of +0.83 deg. C (click for full size version). This makes March 2016 the warmest March in the satellite record (since 1979), and statistically tied with April 1998 for the second warmest month.
![UAH_LT_1979_thru_March_2016_v6-1[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/04/uah_lt_1979_thru_march_2016_v6-11.jpg?quality=83)
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 15 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2015 01 +0.30 +0.44 +0.15 +0.13
2015 02 +0.19 +0.34 +0.04 -0.07
2015 03 +0.18 +0.28 +0.07 +0.04
2015 04 +0.09 +0.19 -0.01 +0.08
2015 05 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27
2015 06 +0.31 +0.38 +0.25 +0.46
2015 07 +0.16 +0.29 +0.03 +0.48
2015 08 +0.25 +0.20 +0.30 +0.53
2015 09 +0.23 +0.30 +0.16 +0.55
2015 10 +0.41 +0.63 +0.20 +0.53
2015 11 +0.33 +0.44 +0.22 +0.52
2015 12 +0.45 +0.53 +0.37 +0.61
2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
2016 02 +0.83 +1.17 +0.50 +0.99
2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.09
I suspect that February and March represent peak El Nino warmth in the lower troposphere, and the rest of the year will see cooling. Whether 2016 ends up being a record warm year will depend upon just how fast global temperatures fall as La Nina approaches, now forecast for late summer or early fall.
The “official” UAH global image for March, 2016 should be available in the next several days here.
NOTE: This is the twelfth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is in peer review.
The new Version 6 files (use the ones labeled “beta5”) should be updated soon, and are located here:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt
Mid-Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tmt
Tropopause: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/ttp
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tls
Added by Anthony
Dr.Ryan Maue on Twitter reports this about the surface temperature record.
March 2016 temperature anomaly +0.63°C [Feb 2016 was +0.70°C & YTD now 0.64°C]
After joining peaks (warmer months) and troughs (cooler months) and adding 3rd order polynomial trend lines, it appears that slowdown in cooler months is more prominent.
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/UAHt.gif
The trend lines suggest that continuation of the pause, or even fall in global temperature are more likely than an imminent rise. I doubt that Dr. Spencer would make much out of it.
Owen in GA
April 2, 2016 at 6:51 am wrote:
“The melting is occurring in models of models based on models. There is no data in any of the reports.
But it makes a really bad science fiction movie (my apologies to those three people in the world who thought “Water World” was a good movie!)”
I liked that movie! Especially the part where the quad-50 was shooting up the fort.
I used to spend a lot of time with a quad-50 over in Phu Bai, South Vietnam. It’s a *good* friend. It will take good care of you! 🙂
During the Korean war, in the 1950’s, the marines said the the best thing to use against Chinese human-wave attacks, was the Quad-50. As long as the marines had ammo, the Chinese couldn’t break through. They mowed them down as fast as they came.
I was pretty well defended while I spent time at Phu Bai. I had the Quad-50 on my right (on the perimeter bunkerline), and a Duster, a 40mm twin-barreled, rapid-fire cannon on my left. I felt pretty secure sitting there between those two.
You’re so intrinsically full of sh** you should be named Outhouse. Like all true believers you lie because it’s an inherent trait of you to do it.
Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology is in peer review.
Hopefully the new version for UAH passes review and becomes official.
I’m sorry if I’m late, but does anyone have any other Hypothesis to LIA and Middle Age warming other than Solar TSI?
Is English wine going to be a huge hit again soon?
TSI is the leading theory for both, with volcanism a possible factor and ocean circulation changes.
It already is!
“There were four English gold medal winners at the 2013 International Wine Challenge awards:
Gusbourne Blanc de Blancs 2008 (Sparkling)
Furleigh Classic Cuvee 2009 (Sparkling)
Nyetimber Rose 2008 (Sparkling)
Denbies Noble Harvest 2011 (Sweet white)
English wines won 19 silver and 25 bronze medals”
http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-23008300
Where are all the alarming articles: Catastrophic temperature drop, never seen before, I have no words for it.
The last one is because they have used up the words.
Svend, if we get a temperature that is the lowest in the record I think you will see those headlines.
Vukcevic, The graph you display does not appear to correspond to the UAH TLT data for the N.H. past couple of months (see Roy Spencer’s data at the top). The figures for January, February and March were 0.69, 1.17 and 0.94 respectively. Your graph appears to show values below about 0.62 for all these months.
Also why did you select to show a 3rd order polynomial fit? Why not 4th, 5th or 6th order polynomials?
In fact as there are 448 months of data you could have used a 448th order polynomial and got a polynomial fit that went through exactly each data point and gave an Rsq coefficient of exactly 1.
I would however suggest not to try to use a higher order than 448 to try to get an Rsq that exceeds 1. Some people might consider that to be overfitting the data.
As an interesting observation: April and May are supposed to be the hot months in the Philippines, yet even if we are well into April, the hot summer heat is curiously absent. I remember the article here on Wattsupwiththat showing abnormal cold water in the south-east Asia ocean territory. Well, reporting from the ground it really does seem to have a cooling effect.
I just love it when the deniers own data provide strong evidence for global warming…..
[And I just love it when by using a nyah-nyah put down with a d-word, Dr. Mark H. Shapiro proves he’s part of the problem with the “State of Education
in America today”, something he writes about. How immature. – Anthony]
I just love it when the believers own data provide strong evidence against global warming…