David Burton writes:
Remember this little article by Nils-Axel Mörner, not quite three years ago?
The Marshall Islands and their Sea Level Changes
He discussed Kwajalein Atoll, in the Marshall Islands, where there’s a tide gauge that seemed to be measuring accelerated sea-level rise:
Of course, the Climate Community sounded the alarm. “Sinking islands call for NZ action,” trumped the New Zealand Herald. “Low-lying islands face existential threat from rising sea levels,” declared the Bangladesh Daily Star.
But Nils warned against drawing panicked conclusions from just one tide gauge. He pointed out that the apparent surge in sea-level at Kwajalein was atypical, and thus unlikely to herald an acceleration in global sea-level rise. He speculated that it could be due to local factors, such as subsidence caused by local construction projects. “In conclusion, don’t “hang your hat” on the Kwajalein graph,” he wrote.
Willis Eschenbach then chimed in, and pointed out that the the apparent trend was simply too short to draw any conclusion from it. Indeed, the literature indicates that at least 50-60 years of data are necessary to deduce a robust sea-level trend from a single tide gauge record.
Of course, Nils and Willis were right. Look at the Kwajalein tide gauge now:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=1820000
It’s obvious that the apparent acceleration in sea-level at Kwajalein was transient, and did not indicate the beginning of an accelerating trend in sea-level rise.
To me, it looks like sea-level at Kwajalein is inversely correlated with ENSO. When the current El Niño ends, so will the current dip in sea-level at Kwajalein, probably.
Over the long term, the sea-level trend at Kwajalein will prove to be approximately linear, just like it is at every other high-quality, long term coastal tide gauge in the world. Seven decades of heavy GHG emissions have caused no increase at all in the rate of coastal sea-level rise.
It seems it tracks nicely with ENSO:
(updated: Here’s a tighter. tidier version of the juxtaposed Kwajalein and ENSO grapha)
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Thank heavens you showed that graph of the synchronism of ENSO and sea level at Kwajalein. When I saw the earlier graph I immediately thought – “Aha, a magma chamber under the island has emptied and is now refilled, to more than before. Remember St Helens. Beware Volcano!”
‘Who will bell the cat?’ asks kim non-pareil.
I meself have asked that question many times, given
the Antonio Gramski long march through the institutions
and the Saul Alinsky 101 twelve rules fer radicals regardin’
closin’ down debate by philosopher kings who
will tell yer what yer
need ter know
and what
yer can
say.
(bts who favours the open society over the closed society.)
Mörner previously claimed that the upward trend was due to subsidence following building work. What does he pin the recent drop on? The sale of helium-filled balloons to kids?
Just trolling, are we Tony?
Brett Keane March 29, 2016 at 8:23 am
Doesn’t seem like Tony is trolling. From Nils-Axel:
I posted the Majuro record above …
w.
First of all, it is not accurate for Tony to say that “Mörner previously claimed that the upward trend was due to subsidence following building work.”
As you can see from Willis’ quote of Mörner (“it looks like Kwajalein is affected by… or some…’correction;”), it is clear that Mörner was just speculating about possible causes. He did not “claim” to know that subsidence was the cause.
Nor is it clear that Mörner’s speculation was wrong. Although ENSO obviously affects sea-level at Kwajalein, that’s not necessarily the only thing affecting it. It is certainly possible that subsidence due to construction has also affected the tide gauge [1] href=”https://www.google.com/maps/place/Kwajalein+Atoll/@8.7320425,167.7345401,504m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m2!3m1!1s0x65ac2eae99e3be7f:0xd63f6a78cbe5df1b”>2] [a href=”http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/images/stationphotos/1820000B.jpg”>3] [4] [5].
Sorry, that Google Maps link apparently confused WordPress. Trying again:
[1] href=”http://tinyurl.com/KwajaleinEchoPier”>2] [a href=”http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/images/stationphotos/1820000B.jpg”>3] [4] [5].
Oops, it wasn’t the Google Maps link, it was my typo. Third time’s the charm…
[1] href=”http://tinyurl.com/KwajaleinEchoPier”>2] [3] [4] [5].
Oops, it wasn’t the Google Maps link, it was my typos. 4th time’s the charm?
[1] [2] [3] [4] [5].
As a marine meteorologist I know trade winds constantly acting on the sea surface have an effect. Mean sea levels in north Queensland along the east coast of Australia are around 30cm higher than mean sea levels south of Sydney as the trade winds pile the water up against the coast in the north. This gives rise to the East Coast Current that flows up to 4 knots south along the coastline as the levels attempt equalisation. Trade winds are probably the cause of variations in sea level at Kwajalein.
“(updated: Here’s a tighter. tidier version of the juxtaposed Kwajalein and ENSO graph)”
sea level pressure anyone?
Kwajalein if my memory serves me correctly copped a pounding in WW11 lucky it is still floating,
Yes, a good thing we didn’t put troops there. If Guam was in danger of tipping over, what ever would have become of poor Kwajalein? (do I need /sarc?)
BTW, that ENSO graph (Niño 3.4 region Oceanic Niño Index) is from Golden Gate Weather Services:
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.jpg
The data in the graph is from NOAA:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
The Kwajalein sea-level graph is, of course, also from NOAA:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=1820000
(To make the combined graph, I just shrunk the ENSO graph with Irfanview [which I highly recommend] to match the scale of the Kwajalein sea-level graph, and then patched the two together with MS Paint.)
The inverse correlation between ENSO and Kwajalein sea-level means worriers can always find something to worry about: During El Niño they can fret about record-breaking temperatures. During La Niña they can fret about the looming “climate refugee” crisis, from disappearing Pacific islands. I’ll bet there’s a nice correlation between ENSO and the ratio of news stories & press releases about temperature vs. news stories & press releases about inundated islands.
China doesn’t seem to be concerned about sea level rise
https://stream.org/climate-surprise-co2-good-earth/
” WHEN NEW THEORIES ARE AVAILABLE, OLD THEORY MUST DUMP. CLIMATE CHANGE THIRD GROUP. AIR CONDITIONING OF MOTHER EARTH. !!!!!
NOT CO2 & GREEN HOUSE GASES CHANGING CLIMATE. CARBON ECONOMY IS FAILING EVERYWHERE. “Why I am different from 31, 847 CLIMATE AND GLOBAL WARMING SCIENTISTS? ” http://joychenputhukulam.com/newsMore.php?newsId=37630
Climate Research Fools went to Eastern Antarctic while temperature was -9° C.
Raveendran Narayanan USA
As you might expect, San Diego’s sea-level graph is not far from being the mirror image of Kwajalein:
http://www.sealevel.info/1820000_Kwajalein_San_Diego_2016-04_vs_ENSO.png
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=9410170
Lesson: the ocean sloshes.