Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A fascinating rift is growing in the climate community.
While US scientists appear to be doing everything in their power to bury the ongoing pause in global warming, with questionable adjustments to their data, UK Ocean Scientists are refusing to give up without a fight.
On the basis of a 2014 paper, UK Ocean scientists have just secured a budget, to launch a major investigation into why global warming has paused, and to work out how to predict future pauses.
… In 2014 scientists at the NOC and The University of Southampton published research showing the important role played by the absorption of heat by the North Atlantic, Tropical Pacific and Southern Oceans in the most recent slow-down of global warming. The world leading ocean models available at the NOC will enable a high quality investigation of the wider role the ocean plays in global warming variability.
Dr Bablu Sinha, who is the project lead for NOC, said that climate change is recognised as one of society’s most pressing problems. The SMURPHS project will address the question of why the rate of surface warming varies on decadal time-scales and will inform government policies on climate change adaptation. This will fill important gaps in the understanding of the different processes controlling climate and how they interact with each other. Absorption of heat by the ocean is one of the most important climate moderating processes. The NOC will provide world leading expertise in ocean observations and ocean circulation models to help ensure the success of SMURPHS. …
Read more: http://www.hydro-international.com/content/news/project-investigates-the-global-warming-hiatus
Settled science anyone?
Translation:
‘Give us money to live comfortably without concerns, program our old models into our preconceived model concepts of what ocean warming is and should act like; and to take frequent ocean voyages to exotic locations.’
Thank you, Janice, for your video of the oceans. This provides the explanation for how the heat gets into the deep oceans. Whales and porpoises jump out of the sea because they like the warmth from the sun, and basking sharks, well, they bask. When nicely warmed up they swim down to the deep ocean looking for food, and take the heat down with them. There you are. QED.
Even if you adopt a non-scientific but common sense view of this whole enterprise, you would have strong doubts about the AGW theory. The earth is four thousand five hundred million years old. We have evolved from a primordial soup of basic molecules into thinking, reasoning beings that can land ourselves on the moon and come back from it alive. Isn’t it reasonable to conclude that the Earth’s atmosphere must be VERY stable and resistant to perturbations from a slight change in a trace gas in the atmosphere? Surely in the geological past, there must have been countless times when forest fires raged unchecked, or volcanoes spewed billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, all while we were evolving into our present state, What is 100 years against this 4.5 billion year timescale? It’s absolutely nothing! My advice to the AGW crowd is to get a life and spend your scientific time doing something useful. If you still have to believe in this conjecture, then relax. We are homo sapiens. We’re not fruit flies. We can adapt to climate change. My ancestors came out of Africa which was probably a balmy 30 degrees into Europe which was wet, cold and miserable. They adapted and so can your descendents and mine.
The “Pause” isn’t really a pause at all–it’s simply the continuation of a 60 year cycle that has been recurring for at least 500 years and we’re right on target. All you have to do is look back into the past and it’s very apparent what is happening. All of this is documented in my earlier papers and is spelled out in detail in a forthcoming book by Elsevier.
Nice discussion thus far!
Chris says:
“2% of solar energy goes into the atmosphere, 92% into the oceans, and the remaining 6% into ice masses (glaciers, the poles and Greenland). That’s a ratio of 45 to 1.”
This is correct, but you forgot to mention that solar radiation is an entirely natural forcing, not a man-made one. Man-made CO2 back-radiation accounts for 0.6 watts/sqm, compared to 332 watts/sqm for direct solar. That means the warming effect of human CO2 on the oceans is a mere 0.2% of the ocean warming. So while it’s important to study ocean warming, we are primarily looking at a natural process, not a human-generated one. Unless by “human-generated” we mean “created by our imaginations”.
That .2% causes a tiny increase in evaporation with the resulting water vapour rising high into the atmosphere where it condenses and the excess energy is free once more.
Colour me cynical.
Same quality of “investigation” given the CRU Emails?
Where is that “recreated raw data” the CRU promised within 3 years?
Investigating the pause?
Using what data sets?
Over what time period?
I have seen signs that CRU/UKMO/GB universities have been, starting in small ways, to separate themselves from US (and let’s not forget the center of gravity of climate science idiocy – Australia) since Climategate. The resistance to M. Mann by British dendro researchers, (Phil Jones) the first of the Clime Syndicate to recognize the dreaded “Pause”, ocean acidification greatly exaggerated, this thread on the Pause is real, etc.
The US branch will hang in, at least until the presidential elections and M. Mann’s lawsuit from which his escape is blocked by Steyn’s countersuit. Obama pushes the cash out there and intimidates his own gov scientists to come out with stuff he can use to kill US free enterprise and install the marksbrothers permanently. The pause buster science of NOAA was perfectly made to order for this.
Ozzie Cli Sci?? Well they have been cut off (350 scientists are looking for bank teller and other jobs) and are whirling around ejecting random papers at great speed, probably a step toward going up in smoke.
“Ozzie Cli Sci?? ”
That might be right GP. Or not.
With do nothing Malcolm at the helm as the newest illegitimate and disloyal Prime Minister whispering sweet some-things into the greens’ shell-like, Australia can look forward to a repeat of the incompetent Gillard gambit of getting into bed with the greens for a nice little romp. The illegitimate off-spring of which is likely to be the reinstitution of a carbon dioxide tax or a trading scheme of one form or another. Remember Malcolm Turnbull is a product of Goldman Sachs. As such he can’t be trusted. Oh, and he’s also a politician; double jeopardy.
The hope for the future now rests with the National Party and its agreement with the Liberals that constrains Malcolm from sending the economy down the gurgler with his imbecilic Carbon dioxide beliefs.
I have voted Liberal for 45 years, but not this election, this election I will vote Labor. I have no choice. If I vote for a Turnbull Government I know the Party will be moved farther to the “Left”. The only way I can get a Conservative Government back in power is to vote the Liberals out. It is only from opposition the Party will change, so they must be removed from office. I know that Labor will add a further 300 billion to our debt, I know they will let in thousands of refugees, I know they will keep their corrupt unions but that’s the price I must pay. I see it as my duty to remove socialism from my once conservative political party. It’s a sad sad day.
Jim,
Please consider voting for the Nationals.
Even if the Nationals don’t run a candidate in your electorate (because of the “non-compete” agreement with their Coalition partners) for the House of Reps, you can still vote for them in the Senate and help lock out the eco-socialist greens and Labor while strengthening the only constraint we have on Malcolm the socialist banker and the rest on the left leaning Liberal Party.
“Look! Nothing’s been happening for nearly 20 years. If this keep up, our entire way of life (research grants, public speaking gigs, media coverage, stimulus money, futile mitigation projects, government programs, and so on) could be in serious danger. We’ve got to find out why nothing is happening and put a stop to it, NOW!” – anonymous climate alarmist