Chris Turney: Penguins Don’t Migrate, they’re dying!

Adelie penguin at eggs. Bellingshausen Station, Antarctic. Author 	Akulovz, source Wikimedia

Adelie penguin at eggs. Bellingshausen Station, Antarctic. Author Akulovz, source Wikimedia

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Chris Turney, leader of the ill fated 2013/14 Ship of fools expedition to the Antarctic, which got stuck in the global warming while trying to retrace the Mawson Expedition, has been urging people to listen to his expert knowledge of Penguin colonies.

More than 150,000 Adélie penguins have perished in a single colony in Antarctica after the grounding of a giant iceberg.

The penguins used to thrive at Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay, where strong winds blowing off the ice sheet kept a large area of water open near the shore.

But in December 2010 an iceberg bigger than the ACT grounded in the bay, trapping floating sea ice near the coast. The penguins now have to make a round trip of more than 120km to feed in the sea and since 2011 the population has plummeted from 160,000 to just 10,000.

According to new research co-authored by the University of NSW’s Climate Change Research Centre and published in the journal Antarctic Science, the colony could be wiped out within 20 years unless the sea ice breaks up or the iceberg, with an area of about 2900 square kilometres, moves.

“Iceberg doesn’t really do it justice,” Professor Turney said. “It’s like a small country, it’s enormous.

“As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline, and make the travelling distances for some of these colonies even further than they have been.”

Adélie penguins usually return to the colony where they hatched and try to return to the same mate and nest. Professor Turney said the Cape Denison penguins could face a grim future. “They don’t migrate,” he said. “They’re stuck there. They’re dying.

Read more: Sydney Morning Herald

The abstract of Turney’s study;

The arrival of iceberg B09B in Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, and subsequent fast ice expansion has dramatically increased the distance Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding at Cape Denison must travel in search of food. This has provided a natural experiment to investigate the impact of iceberg stranding events and sea ice expansion along the East Antarctic coast. As part of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–14, the Adélie penguin colony at Cape Denison was censused to compare to historic counts. Whilst some 5520 pairs still bred at Cape Denison there has been an order of magnitude decline in Adélie numbers in the area in comparison to the first counts a century ago and, critically, recent estimates based on satellite images and a census in 1997. In contrast, an Adélie population on the eastern fringe of Commonwealth Bay just 8 km from the fast ice edge was thriving, indicating the arrival of B09B and fast ice expansion was probably responsible for the observed recent population decline. In conclusion, the Cape Denison population could be extirpated within 20 years unless B09B relocates or the now perennial fast ice within the bay breaks out. Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.

Read more: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=10171606&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0954102015000644

I have no doubt a natural catastrophe like the Cape Denison Iceberg can have a severe local impact, and I’m not surprised that a lot of birds have died, given the abrupt onset of the disaster. But suggesting penguins “don’t migrate” is ridiculous; if that was the case, there would only be one colony in the whole world, or more likely, there wouldn’t be any penguins at all.

187 thoughts on “Chris Turney: Penguins Don’t Migrate, they’re dying!

  1. I’m sure by “they don’t migrate” he meant they return to the same breeding site every year, not that they don’t move to productive feeding areas.

    • More likely he meant that while they do migrate seasonally, they don’t immigrate. Very nationalistic are those penguins.

      • Professor Christmas Turkey put lives in danger. Both those of his tourist-activist guests and the crews of the ship he chartered and of the two ships that had to try to get them out of the mess they got themselves into.

        He severely disrupted the REAL science missions going on in Antarctica because resupply ships ended up being diverted to save his ass.

        He also intentionally misrepresented the climate impacts authorisation allowing his trip to go ahead as being approval of the scientific content of his mission.

        The man is a fool and L1AR, why would anyone give a monkeys about his ignorant and biased ideas about penguin colonies?

      • I thought Chris was under investigation by his university for spending (from memory) $3 million dollars on his expedition while stating that it was for a different purpose. I’ve long been waiting to here the results of that investigation.

      • I was chatting with an Australian science professor recently who was telling me that all Australian scientists and senior science students ( ie. Masters and PhD’s) are now basically required to undergo ‘science communications’ training, take part in ‘science communications’ spruikfests and are actually thereby rated as ‘communicators’. This is coupled with the aggregated publishing rating score, i.e publish in publication A get 10 points, publication F only 1 point, winner gets the promotion!!

        This is apparently all about having ‘relevence’ with the public and thus politicians so that funding can be readily maintained. In other words its part of a grassroots political lobbying campaign. The real result of course is that ‘science’ is being turned into ‘mcdonalds scienceburger’ schtuff with its topics chosen effectively by its marketability. We are now basically getting science distorted by marketing strategy, sliced and diced to maximise revenue, assigned to those who can sel, sell, sell the best and gab the most headlines.

        Professor Turney is the epitome of this utter schlock. Its end point is science as untestable, headline grabbing hypothersis, ideally supported by a model, that will never be further investigated as funding will be diverted to the champagne field trip to provide the footage for the next hyperbolic headline.

        Forget about the military – industrial complex as dominating our politics and politicians, its all been taken over by the media-sciency simplex.

      • It seems to me that the decline in penguin numbers at that Cape site is offset by the thriving colony nearby!
        As the abstract says: “… an Adélie population on the eastern fringe of Commonwealth Bay just 8 km from the fast ice edge was thriving…”

      • W H Auden
        The Fall of Rome (part of)

        Caesar’s double-bed is warm
        As an unimportant clerk
        Writes I DO NOT LIKE MY WORK
        On a pink official form.

        Unendowed with wealth or pity,
        Little birds with scarlet legs,
        Sitting on their speckled eggs,
        Eye each flu-infected city.

        Altogether elsewhere, vast
        Herds of reindeer move across
        Miles and miles of golden moss,
        Silently and very fast.

    • Luke wrote: “I’m sure by ‘they don’t migrate’ he meant they return to the same breeding site every year, not that they don’t move to productive feeding areas.”

      That dismissal does not address Eric Worrall’s summation at all. If penguins “returned to the same breeding site every year”, then as Eric said, at best there would be only one breeding colony in the whole world.

      “Don’t migrate” is a ridiculous assertion, intended purely for warmist political consumption.

      • These are climate change refugees we’re talking about here!!! (grin) Don’t ever forget that the only thing that the greenies allow “nature” to “select” for death is people who disagree with them, on anything.

      • That’s the problem. Without bodies, he can’t prove they died or are dying. Without tracking every single one of them, their migration can’t be proven either.

        But “Professor” Turney has a habit of making wild climate-related declarations and then getting “trapped” in them later. “The sea ice is melting!” (I’m stuck in the sea ice…come get me) “We’re going to land just off the coast near Mawson’s Camp!” (We’re going to have to land hours away from it by snowmachine and have to make 24 hour long round trips to it) “There’s plenty of time to go to shore and do our noble research” (Well the Captain did say that a storm coming and told us all to remain on board) “The weather was clear and bright when we set sail” (Ok…there was terrific wind, blowing snow and ice bergs all around us….)

        So when he screams “The penguins are dying”, most of us are going to wait for the “trap” that is surely coming (Ok…there were no bodies and they could have migrated).

    • The last time he was there it was daytime and he could see lots of penguins.
      This visit was at night and he could not see any penguins.
      Conclusion: The penguins have perished.
      {I suspect the good professor does not know whether it is daytime or night time. And that is not all he does not know}

      • Your conclusion reminded me of the old joke. A scientist trained an ant to dance when the scientist played a waltz on his violin. Interested in expanding his knowledge of ants, the scientist amputated the front two legs of the ant and played the ant’s favorite waltz. The ant easily danced on four legs. Continuing, the scientist amputated the back two legs of the ant and again played the ant’s favorite waltz. The ant wiggled in a manner that clearly indicated he was trying to dance, albeit clumsily. As a final step, the scientists removed the ant’s last two remaining legs and played the waltz. The ant lay there like a rock. The scientist concluded that when you remove all the legs of an ant, the ant goes deaf (and won’t migrate). As I recall, the scientist’s name was Turkey.

  2. “Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.”
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++
    Is he “off message” with all his warmist friends? Didn’t his “ship of fools” trip involve looking at the “last” of the Antarctic sea ice?

  3. The polar bears are all dying because there’s less ice in the sea!

    Where is the Goldilocks amount of ice in the sea?

  4. More likely there has been a dispersion, as with the Minoan civilization.
    Unless, of course there are 150,000 little bodies on ice, so to speak.

  5. I’m not sure how he (the author) is convinced that this sort of incident has never, ever happened before. Or perhaps it has and there is a whole species of penguins that is now extinct and we will never know about it. Life happens!

    • There were extinctions of various species of penguins like the super giant ones, in the past.

      This is how evolution works. Penguins were created by the Ice Ages and thrived due to the Ice Ages.

  6. Chris Turney finds some distressed penguins as evidence of something.

    The something has disputable premises and debatable reasoning for it.

    Continue to dispute / debate those. It is what science does.

    John

  7. Turney misses the point that an iceberg breaking off and gluing itself to a different part of the coastline is not actually melting.

    I’m going out on a limb here and am guessing that continual snowfall on Antarctica over millions of years must mean icebergs break off. Otherwise the place would just keep getting bigger.

  8. I think Professor Turney may have obtained his qualifications at the University of Wan-King, a virtual university where fluffy thinking and reasoning abounds.

    • Actually he could attend any of the universities in British Columbia, University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser, University of Northern British which just elected a Chancellor who was in Steven Harpers conservative government. That election has the very left leaning students and faculty in an uproar. Do not want to leave out the University of Victoria they all excel in fluffy thinking and lack of reason.

      • UBC is considered one of the top U’s on the planet (33rd I believe). They just decided NOT to diverse their portfolio that included investments in the so called “bad” fuel companies. The place was in in uproar. Although in the past few months those investments are shaky at best the leadership stood up against the greens, thank god the people at UBC that are actually IN CHARGE aren’t “fluffy thinkers”!
        One of my biggest problems with Universities is that they have allowed “students” to hang around for years beyond the time they are supposed to graduate. To me that has got to stop!

      • tobias smit

        I did not hear that UBC had been targeted as well for the ‘fossil fuel disinvestment’ campaign. Thanks for that. It is just starting at Waterloo U. It was attempted at Queens last year which held long hearings to collect submissions. The investment board concluded that a) such disinvestment would only be symbolic with no meaningful impact, b) that it would cost the university returns on investments they manage for no meaningful gain, c) that they are responsible to produce results, d) that empty symbols have no value to anyone. All there are paraphrases – the text is available on line.

        That campaign was visibly supported by, among others, USA-based 350.org. One can assume it is part of the US-financed campaign to prevent Canada building pipelines through which to export its oil wealth to overseas customers (read, China). The BC Premier recently commented negatively about the rent-a-mobs that have been blocking energy projects, lately the natural gas loading port project. She has been so off-message the CBC has had to reduce coverage of her complaints. But Christy said it again in Toronto last week.

    • I have just returned from two months at Cape Denison. The Adelie penguins there are in good health. Their numbers are down, perhaps a bit under half of what I’ve seen in the previous four expeditions I’ve been on there since 1997 but the ones that remain are not starving or silent but rather in rude and noisy form and breeding well. There are many tens of thousands of penguins and chicks present.
      The actual decline in numbers in Dr Turney’s paper is hard to determine. These are the figures quoted in table 1 of the original paper: Mawson reported perhaps 200,000 birds.In 1931 there was 10,000. In 1974 there was 2000 adults. In 1982 there was 3500. In 1997 there was 24,000. The iceberg arrived in 2010. In 2011 there was 26,000 birds. In 2013 he reports 5230 occupied nests, so something like 10,000 adults plus chicks. (So the suggestion 150,000 birds have disappeared is way off). But Dr Turney was at Cape Denison barely a day and in my experience a proper survey of penguin numbers at this site takes several days if not weeks. My suspicions is the counts don’t really tell us much. Certainly this summer there was tens of thousands of birds at the site, far in excess of what Dr Turney has reported.
      The good news is a fresh count was conducted this summer by a fastidious observer over several weeks. I suspect it will go some way to allaying fears that the Adelie penguins of Cape Denison are dying out. The other good news is the walk across the sea ice is only 12km at present, much less in most cases because there are plentiful tide cracks further in.
      Commenter
      David Killick
      Location
      Hobart.
      Date and time
      February 12, 2016, 9:35PM

      Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/giant-iceberg-could-wipe-out-adlie-penguin-colony-at-cape-denison-antarctica-20160212-gmslgx.html#ixzz407ivcBhA
      Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  9. My problem is that the iceberg grounded in the bay in Dec 2010. What has Chris been doing for the last 5 years and two months? Writing a paper about it? Watching the penguins die? Is the iceberg still there? Has he tried to break it up? Lots of questions Chris.

    • Actually he roughed out a draft of the paper while he was icebound. Then it was off to find an iceberg, penguins, etc . . .

      • And Turney was only there one day. Just long enough to make his predetermined beat up of a story almost plausible.

    • yeah..watching them die is an “interesting experiment”
      if they really gave a damn they’d dynamite a hole or find some means to assist them..
      thats of course IF? they are actually dying in such vast numbers as to wipe them out
      it seems that may NOT be the truth anyway

      • . . thats of course IF? they are actually dying in such vast numbers as to wipe them out
        it seems that may NOT be the truth anyway

        Interactive Map
        To reveal the geographical distribution of an individual penguin species,hover the cursor over its name.

        It would appear that the Adelie Penguin is the most widely dispersed and abundant species by far.

  10. “Adélie penguins living in the Ross Sea region in Antarctica migrate an average of about 13,000 kilometres (8,100 mi) during the year as they follow the sun from their breeding colonies to winter foraging grounds and back again. “Follow the sun” means that during the winter the sun doesn’t rise south of theAntarctic Circle, but sea ice grows during the winter months and increases for hundreds of miles from the shoreline, and into more northern latitudes, all around Antarctica, so that as long as the penguins live at the edge of the fast ice, there will be sunlight. As the ice recedes in the spring, they remain on the edge of it, until they are once again on the shoreline during a sunnier season. The longest treks have been recorded at 17,600 kilometres (10,900 mi).[22]” wiki

    Weird Chris….

  11. Seems Chris Turkey doesn’t know as much about penguins as he thinks.

    New research using satellite images reveals that emperor penguins are more willing to relocate than previously thought

    Discovery of colony movement challenges long-standing theory that emperor penguins return to the same area each year to nest

    A new study led by the University of Minnesota offers new insights on the long-term future of emperor penguins by showing that the penguins may be behaving in ways that allow them to adapt to their changing environment better than we expected.

    Researchers have long thought that emperor penguins were philopatric, which means they would return to the same location to nest each year. The new research study used satellite images to show that penguins may not be faithful to previous nesting locations.

    Researchers involved in the new study found six instances in just three years in which emperor penguins did not return to the same location to breed. They also report on one newly discovered colony on the Antarctic Peninsula that may represent the relocation of penguins.

    University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering researcher and the study’s lead author Michelle LaRue shared her findings at the IDEACITY conference in Toronto on June 20. The study will also be published in an upcoming issue of Ecography, a professional journal publishing research in spatial ecology, macroecology and biogeography.

    “Our research showing that colonies seem to appear and disappear throughout the years challenges behaviors we thought we understood about emperor penguins,” said LaRue, a research associate in the University’s Department of Earth Sciences. “If we assume that these birds come back to the same locations every year, without fail, these new colonies we see on satellite images wouldn’t make any sense. These birds didn’t just appear out of thin air—they had to have come from somewhere else. This suggests that emperor penguins move among colonies. That means we need to revisit how we interpret population changes and the causes of those changes.”

    http://discover.umn.edu/news/science-technology/new-research-using-satellite-images-reveals-emperor-penguins-are-more

    • so we don’t know what we think we do regarding a single species of penguin,but we know all we need to know regarding cagw . as we say in these parts “aye right !”.

    • What is irksome about mr. ‘ship of fools’ is that he doesn’t mind claiming that penguins have died from:
      A) being so far from the water
      B) unable to make the long trip

      But, mr. ‘ship of fools’ turney is unable to point to any dead penguins.
      A) There are not piles of dead penguins at the colony
      B) There are not trails of dead penguins leading to the water’s edge

      Which means the penguins either drowned or were scarfed up by great white sharks and killer whales or, like most sensible birds, they decided to swim somewhere closer and not bother walking 60km again.

      Has anybody ever actually verified that the ship of fools master can count?

  12. Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.

    See:
    http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full

    “We investigated this in detail and show that for central Antarctica an increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space, which cools the Earth-atmosphere system. These findings for central Antarctica are in contrast to the general warming effect of increasing CO2.”

    So again, it is presumably all our fault. Is that correct?

      • “I’ve failed to find where this conjecture is explained in a cohesive manner.”

        markl: What you don’t understand with ‘climate change’, is that a molecule of CO2 that is located in the warm / warmer parts of the world reacts and magnifies the heat molecules, causing run-a-way global warming.

        Conversely, CO2 molecules found in the cooler / colder parts of the world reacts and magnifies the cold molecules, resulting in a colder climate and possibly run-a-way global cooling.

        Reading what you wrote, tells me that you don’t understand how CO2 works in the atmosphere and also I do believe that you are not a qualified ‘climate scientists’ of the third order to opine as you did.

    • Antarctica is the only place on earth where the surface is routinely colder than the lower stratosphere. They believe that since the lower stratosphere is radiating at a higher temperature than the surface in Antarctica, additional radiation from CO2 at this level cools the planet. This is probably true.

      Where they go astray is their belief that there is a continuum of absorption and radiation from CO2 from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Almost like conduction from the surface to space. This is not true anywhere on the planet. There is a radiation gap in the CO2 bands between about 100 meters above the surface and the lower stratosphere. The light is exhausted.

      CO2 begins to radiate again in the lower stratosphere because it is lit up again indirectly by solar energy captured by ozone. By this means increasing CO2 cools the stratosphere not only in Antarctica, but all over the planet.

    • This cooling occurs when the surface is colder than the atmosphere above it, which in central Antarctica during the winter is the case: the only way heat can be transported to the centre is by air currents, which therefore necessarilly must be warmer.

  13. Takes all of one minute to ascertain that this is the most common penguin. There are over 250 colonies, which have been increasing. The population has increased by 53% in the last 20 years (Hmmm). That theyb are extremely migratory with the average migration at over 8,000 KM and a long of over 10,000 KM.there are millions, and there is no evidence this collision simply did not have large numbers move as they are perfectly capable of and have been observed doing many times. They are very playful, gutsy fellows and this is their primary weakness. They will chance a predator to dive and sled for fun.

    • Oops. Should be miles, not kilometers. BTW, these are the most studied penguins and the most beloved, which is why this sympathy play, I suppose.

  14. What scientists say, things like what Tourney has said, wrt all the doom/ alarm of AGW is completely contrary to nature, contrary to reason or common sense; it is absurd; it is senseless; it is utterly foolish. It is all those things to such an extent that it cannot reasonably be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional of media investigative reporters.

    That means they are all gamers and mimics, thus applied reasoning has been pre-empted.

    John

    • “It is all those things to such an extent that it cannot reasonably be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional of media investigative reporters.”

      Can the idea that (hetero) mens have twice as many sexual partners than women be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional, gullible or plain stupid of media investigative reporters or member of the public?

      Yet I think I have been hearing that since I have been watching the news on TV.

      • simple-touriste on February 13, 2016 at 6:14 pm

        – – – – – – –

        simple-tourist,

        You have pioneered psycho-sexual climate alarmism. Congratulations . . . not.

        John

      • “One survey, recently reported by the federal government, concluded that men had a median of seven female sex partners. Women had a median of four male sex partners. Another study, by British researchers, stated that men had 12.7 heterosexual partners in their lifetimes and women had 6.5.

        But there is just one problem, mathematicians say. It is logically impossible for heterosexual men to have more partners on average than heterosexual women. Those survey results cannot be correct.

        It is about time for mathematicians to set the record straight, said David Gale, an emeritus professor of mathematics at the University of California, Berkeley.

        “Surveys and studies to the contrary notwithstanding, the conclusion that men have substantially more sex partners than women is not and cannot be true for purely logical reasons,” Dr. Gale said.”

        http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2007/08/14/men-and-woman-cannot-have-diff/

        People who accept things prima fascia are gullible idiots.

      • simple-touriste commented: “…Can the idea that (hetero) mens have twice as many sexual partners than women be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional, gullible or plain stupid of media investigative reporters or member of the public?…”

        Exactly. Somehow common sense mean less than appeal to authority? And who/what authority? The King has no clothes? There’s been insignificant/no warming to cooling (depending on your data set) in the last twenty years yet continually absurd connections to AGW are made as if it were occurring and expect people to accept the claims anyway.

      • Aphan,

        it may just be twisting statistics and letting the reader jump to conclusions … average (mean, median,mode …?)

        Or some respondents exaggerate upward and some the other way … what a surprise. People that enjoy the hype (or actually need it to get through the day) then accept the responses … what a surprise.

      • Aphan a median is very different from average. Think about four males at two and four females at one and one at four. In that case medians are one and two.

      • “simple-touriste February 13, 2016 at 6:14 pm”

        I presume you know where the ‘blue light’ districts are that equal the size of the ‘red light’ districts?
        And that you know a lot of lady sailors/soldiers heading to town after long privations?

        “Aphan February 13, 2016 at 7:16 pm”

        Not to worry Aphan:
        Follow-up researchers catalogued men and ladies approximate honesty, noted that men who did talk, bragged; ladies who did talk, tended to pander to questioner’s responses (shock effect), both men and ladies who didn’t like to respond were very recalcitrant about any numbers greater than one.

        Then there was an early attempt at DNA research in France where the researchers had difficulty getting permission to test whole families. Curious until the researchers noticed that a percentage of the families they did test had at least one child with a different Father than the one of the surveyed family… Ooo La La Oops!

      • “I presume you know where the ‘blue light’ districts are that equal the size of the ‘red light’ districts?
        And that you know a lot of lady sailors/soldiers heading to town after long privations?”

        ????

        This was NOT a discussion about prostitution. I don’t want to go there unless you tell me why I should go there.

  15. The species of penguin that replaces the Adele will be more adaptable to their changing environment.

    G Empty niches don’t stay empty for long.

    • There are millions of Adelie penguins in the Antarctic, and the Adelie has adapted very well to it’s changing environment. Turney knows as much about penguins as he does about sea ice=not enough.

  16. Didn’t one of the stupid things migrate to NZ, turning up at Wellington (on the north island)?

    I’ve been calling climate “scientists” penguin counters. I meant it as a sarcastic label. I hadn’t realised he has spent the last 6 years actually counting penguins!

    • Well, they don’t just count themselves, do they? It’s a tough job, but somebody has to collect all that grant money.

  17. If wicked old mankind can change the climate, breaking up an iceberg should be a piece of cake.
    And the disappearing penguins can reappear!!!!!!

    “The Science of Stupid” – starring the unlearned professor.
    I took a shipload of fools to Antarctica to show them the disappearing sea ice – and got stuck in the sea ice.
    I worked with other fools to find that the increase in sea ice is trapping icebergs which is killing penguins.

    You couldn’t make this stuff up.

  18. “But in December 2010 an iceberg bigger than the ACT grounded in the bay, trapping floating sea ice near the coast.”

    Note the subliminal (non) reference to a reason why his Ship of Fools was taken by surprise. He’s unwittingly transferred himself to the Adelie penguin colony and their (posited) plight. This iceberg is also the reason why Antarctic ice is expanding so much when the Fools were expecting a globally warmed coastline. You can see the psychological harm that was done to the guy with the Ripley’s Believe it or not hugest hubris in the world. He is cursed to keep writing the same story in every way he can to to try in vain to escape from his Foolishness.

  19. So, old Chris(tmas) Turkey pops his head up above the parapet again after his toe-curling Ship Of Fools fiasco.

    I’d have expected him to cobble together a study that was at least vaguely plausible. Perhaps this is his swan song.

  20. It sounds like the problem is that it is too cold for the iceberg to melt. Or is the fool trying to say icebergs never happened before the warming following the LIA.

    • Actually that is the core of the observation, something lost on this dolt. The Antarctic iceshelf as wellthe continental ice mass is increasing.

      • .. and the southern oceans have been cooling.

        Penguin colony A is decreasing, Nearby Penguin colony B is increasing. CAGW cientist does not know that colony A moved into colony B. Counting is not easy, they all look alike and put on the same damm suit every day.

      • David A says:
        ” Counting [penguins] is not easy, they all look alike and put on the same damm suit every day.”

        I believe that’s one of the circles of hell, though I forget which one. You don’t get out of that circle until you count all of the penguins. If you get the wrong number, you have to start all over again.

        It makes for a tough choice. Do you want the torment of fire and brimstone or do you want to count penguins for eternity?

  21. End the free money to these academic fools! There are just too many real problem on this earth. The only thing climate science has taught me is what a tragic waste of everyone’s money has gone on for 20 years.

    This madness will only end when the free money ends. Period. You want to study something? Find someone to freely give their money to it. Without billions of dollars being taken from people and spent with no oversight and no value demanded back, this climate madness would be literally nowhere to be found. This just makes me so angry.

    • I agree, Dave. I used to think we were a modern civilization on the brink of wonderful things, now I feel more that we are still in the dark ages, ruled over by imbeciles and shysters. The scope of this abominable waste is too huge to ignore. Those responsible should not be allowed to skulk back into the shadows and get away with it. I fervently hope that the backlash, when it comes, will be severe. It will certainly be merited.

      • A.D. Everard commented: “…Those responsible should not be allowed to skulk back into the shadows and get away with it. I fervently hope that the backlash, when it comes, will be severe. It will certainly be merited.”

        +1 “Those responsible” is debatable. The useful idiots and greedy ones are obvious but the facilitators are well hidden. I think the UN is “those responsible” with the support/direction of Socialist/Communist/Ist empire builders with the backing of wealthy Capitalistic individuals having ideology crisis.

    • Thanks for the link.
      But there too they write: … “ including 8 that we conclude have gone extinct.

      Someone should write Heather & friend and ask the basis of that “we conclude.”
      Maybe a new colony moved on to an ice shelf nearby and the now missing ones said — too close, bye, bye.

  22. So the embarrassment didn’t end his nonsense then?

    For all I know, when he and his “tourist” shipmates got stuck in the ice they ate all the penguins. It might have happened.

  23. Would have thought Christmas Turkey would have gone to ground forever after by now but, no, he just keeps sticking his head up…

  24. There were also a lot of icebergs around at the start of the last little ice-age. The Guardian was one of the ships in the 2nd fleet to Australia that hit one of them and ended up floating slowly to South Africa. Maybe today’s Guardian will eventually be sunk by the reality of the latest little ice-age.

  25. The penguins on the Galapagos Islands north of the equator either swam there or were rafted on iceberg(s) … probably the latter.

  26. Did you ever wonder why there are no dead penguins on the ice in Antarctica? Where do they go?

    Wonder no more!!!!!!! It is a known fact that the penguin is a very ritualistic bird which lives an extremely ordered and complex life. The penguin is very committed to its family and will mate for life, as well as maintain a form of compassionate contact with its offspring throughout its life.

    If a penguin is found dead on the ice surface, other members of the family and social circle have been known to dig holes in the ice, using their vestigial wings and beaks, until the hole is deep enough for the dead bird to be rolled into, and buried.

    The male penguins then gather in a circle around the fresh grave and sing:

    “Freeze a jolly good fellow.”
    “Freeze a jolly good fellow.”

    You really didn’t believe that I know anything about penguins, did you?

    I am sorry, an urge came over me that made me do it!!!

  27. The report relies on questionable philopatry:

    From https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/01/blinded-by-beliefs-the-straight-poop-on-emperor-penguins/

    “Believing Emperors are loyal to their breeding locations (philopatry), whenever researchers counted declining penguins at their study site, they assumed the missing penguins had died. However other studies had shown populations could suddenly double, and such observations challenged the notion of philopatry. “

  28. “As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline, and make the travelling distances for some of these colonies even further than they have been.”

    Doesn’t all ice flowing from Antarctica’s ice sheets into the ocean eventually break off and float away? How is this increased by global warming?

  29. Penguins killed by ice and snow ! Now I believe but can’t help but think was it exactly 160 thou or was it rounded .

  30. So, how did the first Adélie penguin get there?
    Or did they just manifest into existence at that breeding site? (from another dimension, perhaps).
    Or have they been there since the beginning of time?
    They never discover new breeding sites, so clearly all penguins at all individual breeding sites are, in reality, actually entirely different species of animal and not even related.
    Is it my imagination or are academic scientists the very last people to understand that the world is a place where “shit happens” and there are “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns”.
    Everybody laughed when Rumsfeld shared these words of wisdom with the world.
    But plenty of people are late getting the message.
    Also as the Buddha may not have explained, but certainly Darwin did – change is constant and inevitable, especially for wildlife, which has no postal address or property deeds. Are academic scientists actually living in a world of childlike discovery in which they marvel at the discovery of basic stuff that is plainly obvious to most of the other residents of the planet?
    Obviously Chris Turney can’t be quite that stupid so I am inclined to suppose that he is simply looking for attention and money. He probably doesn’t really give a crap about penguins.

  31. Where on earth do they train scientists now? Surely even a GCSE school kid will know that if the temperature is warm the iceberg will melt overall. What is more there will be plenty of places where localised melting allows sufficient area for them to feed. The existence of a huge iceberg that is not melting proves that any effect is not global but localised and one needs to examine where it started out from for a localised source of heat. I wonder why NASA chose never to provide updates for its file AMSRE_SSTAn_M-MOD_LSTAD_M which clearly shows that large localised natural events are providing much if not all of the global warming and the areas are nowhere near large human population or industrial areas. Could it be that reality is off message compared to climate science?

    • The B-9B iceberg came from the B-9 iceberg which broke off the Ross Ice Shelf in October 1987. It will be having its 30th birthday next year!

      I severely doubt whether B-9 calved from the Ross Ice Shelf due to global warming since ice shelves tend to break up for mechanical reasons (storm/tide stress) as they progress further out to sea.

      No large berg (>1,000 km²) has calved from Antarctica since 2002.

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recorded_icebergs_by_area

  32. Chris Turkey, leader of the ill fated 2013/14 Ship of fools expedition to the Antarctic just keeps on giving and giving us bizarre stories. This latest Emperor Penguin tale is one of his best spoofs.

  33. I find it amazing that most people are unaware of penguins living in warm conditions – South Africa and Galapagos. They are not dying from heat exhaustion!!!!!!!!

  34. Some time ago the BBC conned poor Dickie Attenborough to stand on a beach in Antarctic and complain about the disappearance of the ice and the Adelies.

    • And notice how 90% of Russia including SIberia, was glacier free! This is proof that seeing how the climate works, to watch for Ice Age conditions, one simply looks at Hudson Bay, epicenter of all Ice Ages. If it doesn’t melt in summer, we are in an Ice Age again.

  35. Think I know what happened here. If I was a penguin hearing biochar salesman Turney’s manic Tom Cruise laugh, I’d head off in the other direction too.

  36. “As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline”

    same old, same old me thinks!

    ” On January 2, 1868 the 1326 ton clipper “Mermaid” arrived in Lyttelton after an 89 day passage from GB and it was reported that, ” When in the vicinity of Cape Leeuwin, Captain Rose and his officers had an anxious time avoiding 30 huge icebergs.” Are icebergs seen off Albany or Margaret River ever these days ?”

    ” In February 1877, the “City of Auckland” was 1200 miles WNW of Cape Horn and ran into a patch of icebergs with fog which kept them all busy for an afternoon. How common would this be these days in summer ?”

    ” In 1893 (after arriving in Nelson in September 92), the iron sailing ship “Margaret Galbraith” was homeward bound around Cape Horn. Mr. N.H. Burgess the 2nd Officer reported that from three days north of the Falklands to about one weeks sailing north of the Falklands they were “among the ice,” which culminated with a days sailing past a single giant berg “40 to 50 miles long,” The account suggest the ship may have been only making 3 to 5 knots around this time, certainly at night one would expect them to throttle back. They had a close call on first encountering the ice north of the Falklands.
    It may be partly by chance that the length of this iceberg was reported because the sailing people seemed more impressed by the height of ice encountered than the extent of any particular piece. The 40 to 50 mile long berg mentioned above was reported as being 1000 ft asl at the NE end”

    ” The 1000 ton plus iron sailing ship “Himalaya”, on a 109 day voyage from Liverpool to Wellington, departed 9, November 1894 and arrived 25, February, 1895. The captain reported seeing several icebergs off the Cape (of Good Hope) and then, “.. that from the Cape to the Crozets was a most trying time as icebergs were in sight for a distance of two thousand miles.”

    The same “Margaret Galbraith” on a 123 day passage to Napier arriving 15, January 1895, was surrounded by ice for six days in the vicinity of 44 S Latitude and 25 E Longtitude.

  37. Why on Earth does Turney bother? He’s oblivious to his total lack of credibility.

    ““They don’t migrate,” he said. “They’re stuck there. They’re dying.“

    Really?

    Adelie Penguins are migratory and after breeding do not return to their colonies until the next spring.

    http://www.penguinworld.com/types/adelie.html

    “Adélie penguins living at the far southern extreme of their geographic range migrate an average of about 13,000 kilometers during the year as they follow the sun from their breeding colonies to winter foraging grounds and back again.

    “They’re definitely making a longer distance migration than we thought,” said Grant Ballard External Non-U.S. government site, lead author of a study recently published in the journal Ecology that examined the birds’ past and present migration patterns, and how changes in climate and sea ice extent might affect migration patterns in the future.”

    http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2230

    Like I said, why does he bother?

    • It is all the fault of the penguins for not leaving him their new address when they moved. Or maybe they were running away from him, he bothers them too much.

      • The Akademik Shokalskiy was receiving sea-ice satellite data and weather forecasts on the area. Expedition co-leader Greg Mortimer said in an interview with the BBC that “the ice situation was very unexpected and (ran) counter to what we had seen on the most recent ice charts and weather forecasts we had”. There Modelling was off a tad, and the are trying to model for 2035 to 2100 say what !!!!!

  38. About three weeks ago another ship of fools left Australia for Antarctica. The head fool gave our ABC (your BBC) an interview telling them what they expect to find there. Firstly would be much warmer water which would have killed off the food that the schools of smaller fish eat thus they will be killed off. Then the whales and penguins that eat them will die. He said it all with a straight face. )

  39. You’d think that Mr Turney would avoid sticking his head up from behind an iceburg considering all the stick he received last time. Must be a glutton for punishment.

  40. Next thing we will hear is that other colonies of Adelie penguins have miraculously increased in size.

    Is this the same Chris Turney of the Akademik Shokalskiy “ship of fools” fame?

  41. Anthony Watts. There are lots of defamatory comments on this site and many of them are on this thread. Some calling Turney a liar in the conduct of his profession without foundation, others make generally defamatory comments about Turney in the conduct of his profession without citations.

    It’s way past time for you to take responsibility for your defamatory conduct as author and / or publisher of those defamatory remarks. The place to do that is in an Australian court where actions in Defo have an easier path to a favourable decision than do those brought before US courts.
    Funds await an Australian litigant willing to carry this forward and there are a couple of Australian scientists who come to mind.

    [Dan, perhaps you should start at home, by weeding out defamatory comments made by Miriam O’Brien of Mt. Beauty, AU, aka “Sou” of “Hotwhopper” at her blog. I’m sure there’s plenty of legal action close to home you can send to court. As for commentators here, I’m not responsible for their opinions. – Anthony]

    • Dan you don’t know about the “Ship of Fools” incident? It made international news and was fodder for all the comedy shows. Oh and other illustrious defamed climate scientists reported hundreds of thousands of Emperor penguins had died, only to have them turn out stronger than ever somewhere else!! They did the same with a group of polar bears and I believe they also lost a half million caribou (reindeery thingys). These animals rove thousands of miles, well known by school children but not, apparently by the experts, like Turney. Even an Ozzie climate industry association gave him a prize for the impossibly incompetent junket to Antarctica with family, friends, journalists, camera crews whom he put in extreme peril. He got them caught in heavy Antarctic sea ice on a journey to see what global warming was doing to the continent. In bitter cold and stuck in the ice with women, children and journalists, tourists he and they had to be ignominiously rescued by a Chinese research ice breaker’s helicopter and finally an Ozzie research station service ship. He screwed up a year’s research efforts by several nations’ Antarctic stations by diverting resources to rescue this motley lot. He was excoriated by these groups and was, I believe to be sued for 3million bucks as part of the cost to the other expeditions.

      I’m going to let you google all this stuff if you know how to do that. Oh, and why would you speak so proudly of your nation’s absence of free speech – you used to have it until you let the Marxbrothers take the helm. Now I know how kangaroo courts got their name.

    • You think these comments are defamatory, just wait till I get on a witness stand. Or anywhere near a camera.

      James Mayeau at your service.

    • Dan said:

      . . . others make generally defamatory comments about Turney in the conduct of his profession without citations.

      Chris Turney is the inventor and a founding Director. of Carbonscape.

      Carbonscape has developed a platform capability, using proprietary, continuous flow, digital microwave technology to produce solutions to the major issues facing our world today. Carbonscape is a carbon refining company, harnessing the power and finesse of microwave technology to revolutionise the analogue pyrolysis process, taking waste and other organic matter and turning it into value-added products, including oils, gases and activated carbon.

      Carbonscape Directors.

      Perhaps Chris Turney could be considered as having a conflict of interest, no?
      Did Chris Turney declare his vested interest in sequestering carbon dioxide. No.

      He’s an activist seeking to profit from alarmism while having his nose in the public trough while wearing a lab coat. He deserves all the stick he gets.
      The “the conduct of his profession” ? . . . don’t make me laugh.

      For the Monty Python fans:
      Has Chris Turney become the Black Knight of the Climate Change industry?.

    • Dan, Dan, Dan. I believe you have the word “derogatory”confused with the word “defamation”. You also seem to have invented a new term called “actions in Defo” because no such word, or abbreviation currently exists.

      Turney is an idiot. See that right there? That’s called a derogatory opinion. My saying it is not against the law, and Anthony Watt’s isn’t responsible because I said it. Of course, you publicly accusing Anthony Watts of committing a crime…such as defamation, just might be against the law. What’s your last name and location Dan so we can check on the laws that pertain to you authoring defamatory comments here?

      But even in Australia-
      “Publishing something which might seem defamatory won’t be against the law if:

      *- the information is substantially true,
      *-the information is published with the consent of the person being defamed, or
      *-the information wasn’t very important and it is unlikely that the person’s reputation will actually be damaged.”

      There is plenty of evidence that the opinions expressed here about Turney are true, and unless WUWT has some kind of superpower that we’re all unaware of, what is said here about him isn’t very important and isn’t likely that his reputation will actually be damaged. At least, not more than his own actions have already done.

  42. Dan here is my answer I have been around in the North; ( Canada ) for over 70 years and you know what ! the weather has not repeat has not changed one iota. Some days are warmer and some are colder it’s called WEATHER/ ” so cut out the crap. All you so called climate scientists stop taken Tax Payer’s money.

  43. This month a scientific discovery and advance of truly momentous significance was announced – measurement of gravity waves, incontrovertibly validated by the recording at two separate sites the same signal wavetrain from a spinning and colliding pair of black holes.

    One wonders if climate pseudoscientists like Turkey ever look with anything like envy on the participants of scientific projects like the gravity wave project, where data is real and shows something unexpected? These people actually saw a huge event occurring a billion years ago / lightyears away. That’s is true science. Satisfaction of real discovery.

    Contrast that with the thin diet of Christmas Turkey and colleagues consisting of cooking up fictional “explanations” of why the combined facts of (a) cooling air temps in Antarctica, (b) expanding Antarctic sea ice and (c) cooling Southern ocean, all point somehow to global and Antarctic warming.

    Despite their criminal dishonesty one feels a little sorry for such Turkeys. Getting out of bed in the morning for them must be similar to what it is like for, say, a Nigerian phishing scammer/spammer. No prospect of the satisfaction of achieving or building anything real, only parasitic theft by deception.

    • I’m going to wait a little longer on this gravity waves stuff. Last year we had the Higgs Boson discovered…..or maybe discovered…. and then no more said. They announced the discovery seemingly prematurely because old Higgs was at an advanced age – it looked like the ‘caring thing to do.

      • Gary

        Do you think that the recording at two separate sites, at the same time, the same signal wavetrain from a spinning and colliding pair of black holes, could be an artefact? When this wavetrain corresponds almost exactly to what is simulated for such an event? This looks pretty solid to me.

        It was a small spacequake.

      • “It was a small spacequake.”

        So….a Little Bang?

        But science requires validation, duplication. And when your project has already cost $1.1 BILLION over the span of 40 years with zero evidence that it actually works, well…let’s just say that having it look “almost exactly” like what is simulated for such an event…seems just a tad too perfect.

        From the NY Times article-
        “Lost in the transformation was three solar masses’ worth of energy, vaporized into gravitational waves in an unseen and barely felt apocalypse. As visible light, that energy would be equivalent to the brightness of a billion trillion suns.
        And yet it moved the LIGO mirrors only four one-thousandths of the diameter of a proton.”

        Seriously? You called that a small spacequake? It sounds like a cataclysm beyond the comprehension of the human mind…and it moved some Earth mirrors less than an ant fart would. Seems like a lot of time, effort and money just to prove we could “measure” something.

  44. The penguins have been birthing their young on the shores of Antarctica for a long, long time before the continent of Antarctica ever became perpetually covered in snow, ice and/or glaciers.

    The penguins chose their “birthing” locale on the barren shores of Antarctica many, many eons ago ….. and the inherited instinct possessed by their descendants dictates that the current population of penguins return to that same “birthing” locale regardless of how many linear feet or miles of sea ice separates said “birthing” locale from the “open” (ice free) water.

  45. penguin symbol replaces panda symbol, sounds good both b&w and the penguins are smaller so that is less ink.

  46. Yes, I can see how “global warming” contributes to more sea ice.
    And less sea ice.
    The important thing is, it’s our fault penguins are dying.

  47. Dan
    February 14, 2016 at 3:49 am

    “Anthony Watts. There are lots of defamatory comments on this site and many of them are on this thread…”

    It may surprise you to know that Anthony Watts, John Coleman and Joe D’Aleo assisted the ship out of its difficulties with high quality Antarctic weather charts and ice movements that proved to have been very effective. I’ll let you google that too.

    • From the BBC article that you linked;

      ‘Initially, it was thought he was dehydrated and malnourished. It was only discovered he was suffering from a serious infection – bacterial peritonitis – when he was treated at Union Glacier base camp.

      He was then flown to a hospital in Punta Arenas, Chile, to undergo surgery but died on Sunday.

      Peritonitis is inflammation of the peritoneum, the thin layer of tissue that lines the inside of the abdomen. According to the NHS, most cases come from injury or infection in another part of the body.’

  48. Turney sez;“As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting.”
    Yes, and as Turney and his Climatist friends continue to lie about climate, their noses will continue to grow longer, and their pants will burn increasingly hotter.

  49. Did Turkey ever plant all those Kauri trees he promised ?
    Every time he opens his mouth, the Kauri population expands by a leap.

    unless he is a lying toad

    • Kauri trees are huge, awesome looking trees. Tane (Tar-ney) Mahuta (The Father of the Forrest) in Northland, New Zealand (NZ), is something like 3000 years old. I was gifted another NZ native, a Totara (Toh-trah), during my citizenship ceremony. I called the Wellington regional council and asked if it could be planted in a park somewhere. And sure enough it was, just north of Wellington. I’ll be long gone before it gets anywhere near maturity.

  50. The penguins made it through the last ice ice age that lasted some 100K years and ice ages before that as well. They also made it through the last interglacial period, the Eemian, which was warmer then this one with more ice cap melting and higher sea levels then today. The climate change of the modern warm period is trivial compared to what they have gone through in the past. We do not need to sacrifice economy for sake of the penguins because doing so will not help them one iota. What we do need to do is to control our own population for our selves. If Mankind does not control his own population then Nature will, catastrophically.

  51. I have skimmed through responses here. I hope I [am] not repeating something

    Some info:

    ADÉLIE FACTS

    Scientific name Pygoscelis adeliae (named after the wife of the French explorer Durmont d’Urville)
    The longest studied Antarctic organism
    The most abundant and widespread Antarctic penguin
    10 million Adélies make up 80% of the bird biomass in the Southern Ocean
    Adélies live up to 14 years of age
    Adélies are colonial nesting birds
    Colonies are found in the 3% of the Antarctic coastline that is ice-free
    Most Adélies breed in the colony of their birth – called natal philopatry
    There are 38 colonies and over 5 million Adélies in the Ross Sea region
    On land, Adélies are found in clusters; one or two large colonies (up to 250 000 breeding pairs) surrounded by smaller ones
    Adélies feed mainly on krill and small fish
    The main predators of Adélies are skuas, which will quickly eat unguarded eggs and chicks on land, and leopard seals and killer whales at sea
    Human disturbance, pollution and rubbish have disrupted some colonies in the past; the areas Adélies breed in are often the same sites chosen for scientific stations and bases. There is a much greater awareness of this issue now, however
    Understanding the dynamics of penguin population change is important, as these changes can be used as sensitive indicators of global climate change

    Source; New Zealand Landcare research

    The info indicates that there are over 400 colonies around Antarctica

    The disaster is what?

  52. So, the ice between Cape Denison & open water must be littered with 10’s of thousands of penquin carcasses if what Turkey says is true. There must also have been a large increase in the Skua population.

  53. Did you ever wonder why there are no dead penguins on the ice in Antarctica? Where do they go?

    Wonder no more. It is a known fact that the penguin is a very ritualistic bird which lives an extremely ordered and complex life. The penguin is very committed to its family and will mate for life, as well as maintain a form of compassionate contact with its offspring throughout its life.

    If a penguin is found dead on the ice surface, other members of the family and social circle have been known to dig holes in the ice, using their vestigial wings and beaks, until the hole is deep enough for the dead bird to be rolled into, and buried.

    The male penguins then gather in a circle around the fresh grave and sing:

    “Freeze a jolly good fellow,”
    “Freeze a jolly good fellow !”

  54. Global warming climate change, ….. aka: gradual increase in near-surface air temperatures, ….. has never caused …. nor will ever cause … the “calving” of glaciers or the “fracturing” and/or break-up of Arctic or Antarctica sea ice.

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