Chris Turney: Penguins Don't Migrate, they're dying!

Adelie penguin at eggs. Bellingshausen Station, Antarctic. Author 	Akulovz, source Wikimedia

Adelie penguin at eggs. Bellingshausen Station, Antarctic. Author Akulovz, source Wikimedia

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Chris Turney, leader of the ill fated 2013/14 Ship of fools expedition to the Antarctic, which got stuck in the global warming while trying to retrace the Mawson Expedition, has been urging people to listen to his expert knowledge of Penguin colonies.

More than 150,000 Adélie penguins have perished in a single colony in Antarctica after the grounding of a giant iceberg.

The penguins used to thrive at Cape Denison in Commonwealth Bay, where strong winds blowing off the ice sheet kept a large area of water open near the shore.

But in December 2010 an iceberg bigger than the ACT grounded in the bay, trapping floating sea ice near the coast. The penguins now have to make a round trip of more than 120km to feed in the sea and since 2011 the population has plummeted from 160,000 to just 10,000.

According to new research co-authored by the University of NSW’s Climate Change Research Centre and published in the journal Antarctic Science, the colony could be wiped out within 20 years unless the sea ice breaks up or the iceberg, with an area of about 2900 square kilometres, moves.

“Iceberg doesn’t really do it justice,” Professor Turney said. “It’s like a small country, it’s enormous.

“As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline, and make the travelling distances for some of these colonies even further than they have been.”

Adélie penguins usually return to the colony where they hatched and try to return to the same mate and nest. Professor Turney said the Cape Denison penguins could face a grim future. “They don’t migrate,” he said. “They’re stuck there. They’re dying.

Read more: Sydney Morning Herald

The abstract of Turney’s study;

The arrival of iceberg B09B in Commonwealth Bay, East Antarctica, and subsequent fast ice expansion has dramatically increased the distance Adélie penguins (Pygoscelis adeliae) breeding at Cape Denison must travel in search of food. This has provided a natural experiment to investigate the impact of iceberg stranding events and sea ice expansion along the East Antarctic coast. As part of the Australasian Antarctic Expedition 2013–14, the Adélie penguin colony at Cape Denison was censused to compare to historic counts. Whilst some 5520 pairs still bred at Cape Denison there has been an order of magnitude decline in Adélie numbers in the area in comparison to the first counts a century ago and, critically, recent estimates based on satellite images and a census in 1997. In contrast, an Adélie population on the eastern fringe of Commonwealth Bay just 8 km from the fast ice edge was thriving, indicating the arrival of B09B and fast ice expansion was probably responsible for the observed recent population decline. In conclusion, the Cape Denison population could be extirpated within 20 years unless B09B relocates or the now perennial fast ice within the bay breaks out. Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.

Read more: http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?fromPage=online&aid=10171606&fulltextType=RA&fileId=S0954102015000644

I have no doubt a natural catastrophe like the Cape Denison Iceberg can have a severe local impact, and I’m not surprised that a lot of birds have died, given the abrupt onset of the disaster. But suggesting penguins “don’t migrate” is ridiculous; if that was the case, there would only be one colony in the whole world, or more likely, there wouldn’t be any penguins at all.

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Luke

I’m sure by “they don’t migrate” he meant they return to the same breeding site every year, not that they don’t move to productive feeding areas.

Leo G

More likely he meant that while they do migrate seasonally, they don’t immigrate. Very nationalistic are those penguins.

george e. smith

Well in the spirit of Charles Darwin, if the Adele penguins put up with their new geography, to their detriment, the species that fills their vacant niche, will have better survival habits.
G
Nobody is guaranteed to have everything to their liking.

This reminds me of just how stupid organisms can behave en mass – Calhoun’s mice experiments (http://www.returnofkings.com/36915/what-humans-can-learn-from-the-mice-utopia-experiment) and Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Mackay (http://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/24518) Not the penguins.. well a bit.. more the ‘scientists’

Mick In The Hills

Gee, a climate paper that contained vague assertions.
Another world first for Chris Turney?

Mike

Professor Christmas Turkey put lives in danger. Both those of his tourist-activist guests and the crews of the ship he chartered and of the two ships that had to try to get them out of the mess they got themselves into.
He severely disrupted the REAL science missions going on in Antarctica because resupply ships ended up being diverted to save his ass.
He also intentionally misrepresented the climate impacts authorisation allowing his trip to go ahead as being approval of the scientific content of his mission.
The man is a fool and L1AR, why would anyone give a monkeys about his ignorant and biased ideas about penguin colonies?

Greg Cavanagh

I thought Chris was under investigation by his university for spending (from memory) $3 million dollars on his expedition while stating that it was for a different purpose. I’ve long been waiting to here the results of that investigation.

M Seward

I was chatting with an Australian science professor recently who was telling me that all Australian scientists and senior science students ( ie. Masters and PhD’s) are now basically required to undergo ‘science communications’ training, take part in ‘science communications’ spruikfests and are actually thereby rated as ‘communicators’. This is coupled with the aggregated publishing rating score, i.e publish in publication A get 10 points, publication F only 1 point, winner gets the promotion!!
This is apparently all about having ‘relevence’ with the public and thus politicians so that funding can be readily maintained. In other words its part of a grassroots political lobbying campaign. The real result of course is that ‘science’ is being turned into ‘mcdonalds scienceburger’ schtuff with its topics chosen effectively by its marketability. We are now basically getting science distorted by marketing strategy, sliced and diced to maximise revenue, assigned to those who can sel, sell, sell the best and gab the most headlines.
Professor Turney is the epitome of this utter schlock. Its end point is science as untestable, headline grabbing hypothersis, ideally supported by a model, that will never be further investigated as funding will be diverted to the champagne field trip to provide the footage for the next hyperbolic headline.
Forget about the military – industrial complex as dominating our politics and politicians, its all been taken over by the media-sciency simplex.

Anne Ominous

This reminds me very much of just a couple of years ago, when claims were made that penguins in one area had nearly all died off. It turned out later that they had simply MIGRATED somewhere else.
I don’t have a link to the actual re-discovery of the penguins handy, but there is some mention here:
http://dailycaller.com/2014/07/17/global-penguin-population-booms-despite-global-warming-fears/

Yippiy

It seems to me that the decline in penguin numbers at that Cape site is offset by the thriving colony nearby!
As the abstract says: “… an Adélie population on the eastern fringe of Commonwealth Bay just 8 km from the fast ice edge was thriving…”

Nigel S

W H Auden
The Fall of Rome (part of)
Caesar’s double-bed is warm
As an unimportant clerk
Writes I DO NOT LIKE MY WORK
On a pink official form.
Unendowed with wealth or pity,
Little birds with scarlet legs,
Sitting on their speckled eggs,
Eye each flu-infected city.
Altogether elsewhere, vast
Herds of reindeer move across
Miles and miles of golden moss,
Silently and very fast.

TYoke

Luke wrote: “I’m sure by ‘they don’t migrate’ he meant they return to the same breeding site every year, not that they don’t move to productive feeding areas.”
That dismissal does not address Eric Worrall’s summation at all. If penguins “returned to the same breeding site every year”, then as Eric said, at best there would be only one breeding colony in the whole world.
“Don’t migrate” is a ridiculous assertion, intended purely for warmist political consumption.

Luke

OK, there is limited breeding dispersal- that would lead to the same outcome.

George Tetley

That little olde iceberger is fresh water, WOW, tow it to Ethiopia, they need freshwater.

bh2

This is called “natural selection”. Evidently greenies don’t believe in evolution.

These are climate change refugees we’re talking about here!!! (grin) Don’t ever forget that the only thing that the greenies allow “nature” to “select” for death is people who disagree with them, on anything.

Keitho

So have they died or migrated?

That’s the problem. Without bodies, he can’t prove they died or are dying. Without tracking every single one of them, their migration can’t be proven either.
But “Professor” Turney has a habit of making wild climate-related declarations and then getting “trapped” in them later. “The sea ice is melting!” (I’m stuck in the sea ice…come get me) “We’re going to land just off the coast near Mawson’s Camp!” (We’re going to have to land hours away from it by snowmachine and have to make 24 hour long round trips to it) “There’s plenty of time to go to shore and do our noble research” (Well the Captain did say that a storm coming and told us all to remain on board) “The weather was clear and bright when we set sail” (Ok…there was terrific wind, blowing snow and ice bergs all around us….)
So when he screams “The penguins are dying”, most of us are going to wait for the “trap” that is surely coming (Ok…there were no bodies and they could have migrated).

DonK31

The penguins are all dying because there’s more ice in the sea!

toorightmate

The last time he was there it was daytime and he could see lots of penguins.
This visit was at night and he could not see any penguins.
Conclusion: The penguins have perished.
{I suspect the good professor does not know whether it is daytime or night time. And that is not all he does not know}

Father Mike.

I don’t think he knows his @rse (English spelling) from a hole in the ground.

Reed Coray

Your conclusion reminded me of the old joke. A scientist trained an ant to dance when the scientist played a waltz on his violin. Interested in expanding his knowledge of ants, the scientist amputated the front two legs of the ant and played the ant’s favorite waltz. The ant easily danced on four legs. Continuing, the scientist amputated the back two legs of the ant and again played the ant’s favorite waltz. The ant wiggled in a manner that clearly indicated he was trying to dance, albeit clumsily. As a final step, the scientists removed the ant’s last two remaining legs and played the waltz. The ant lay there like a rock. The scientist concluded that when you remove all the legs of an ant, the ant goes deaf (and won’t migrate). As I recall, the scientist’s name was Turkey.

“Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++
Is he “off message” with all his warmist friends? Didn’t his “ship of fools” trip involve looking at the “last” of the Antarctic sea ice?

Gentle Tramp

And why are the penguins not extinct already? Antarctica was much warmer between 8000 and 1000 years before present:
http://web.a.ebscohost.com/abstract?direct=true&profile=ehost&scope=site&authtype=crawler&jrnl=15537390&AN=51902440&h=976W3LUap%2fwRT5dJSFcChTQGIctH%2frBPy58sgEeFcUckatIB0m3pkdoccQxBPixrjedxE7J%2fN0ZRPOLOcrEFAQ%3d%3d&crl=c
A DLF report summarized those findings this way:
“About from 7000 until 1000 BP, todays strongly icy coast of Victoria Land in Antarctica must have been icefree and therefore much warmer than today. In this period there is a rapidly growing colony of sea-elephant that was able to establish, which was clearly proved by DNA and C14 investigations of numerous well-preserved carcass residues as reference. When it was getting colder around 1000 years ago, this colony died out again. Recent work shows that the sea-elepfants so well advanced in the warmer climate, that this colony was able to develop much more vitalizing mutations in the genetic material, as at present mostly smaller and barely growing colonies on the Antarctic islands.”
For the latter statement see here:
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/281/1779/20133078.abstract
So we see here clearly: Climate warming is much better for Antarctic animals than vice versa! Antarctica is cooling since the last decades and THAT is bad for the penguins…

DonK31

The polar bears are all dying because there’s less ice in the sea!
Where is the Goldilocks amount of ice in the sea?

John F. Hultquist

Too thick and too much spring ice is not good.
That and other stuff can be found here:
https://polarbearscience.com/

John F. Hultquist

More likely there has been a dispersion, as with the Minoan civilization.
Unless, of course there are 150,000 little bodies on ice, so to speak.

Stephen Richards

Yes, Pity Turdey is unable to sail to the antarctic to photograph them. Would be much more convincing

I actually hope there is some kind of “no sail list” like the no-fly one, and that his name is on it!

Or some ridiculously FAT sea lions laying around….

NW sage

I’m not sure how he (the author) is convinced that this sort of incident has never, ever happened before. Or perhaps it has and there is a whole species of penguins that is now extinct and we will never know about it. Life happens!

emsnews

There were extinctions of various species of penguins like the super giant ones, in the past.
This is how evolution works. Penguins were created by the Ice Ages and thrived due to the Ice Ages.

markl

Another AGW knee jerk reaction to weather.

Father Mike.

Another AGW jerk.

Chris Turney finds some distressed penguins as evidence of something.
The something has disputable premises and debatable reasoning for it.
Continue to dispute / debate those. It is what science does.
John

B.J

They say in their paper something often happens, which they don’t know the cause off. (“Whilst the numbers of Adélie penguins have apparently varied markedly over the last century due to unknown factors,”) So is it a factor this time? Is it 0% or 100% this time. It makes the paper worthless !!!!!

Russell
markx

Turney misses the point that an iceberg breaking off and gluing itself to a different part of the coastline is not actually melting.
I’m going out on a limb here and am guessing that continual snowfall on Antarctica over millions of years must mean icebergs break off. Otherwise the place would just keep getting bigger.

George McFly......I'm your density

I think Professor Turney may have obtained his qualifications at the University of Wan-King, a virtual university where fluffy thinking and reasoning abounds.

nc

Actually he could attend any of the universities in British Columbia, University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser, University of Northern British which just elected a Chancellor who was in Steven Harpers conservative government. That election has the very left leaning students and faculty in an uproar. Do not want to leave out the University of Victoria they all excel in fluffy thinking and lack of reason.

UBC is considered one of the top U’s on the planet (33rd I believe). They just decided NOT to diverse their portfolio that included investments in the so called “bad” fuel companies. The place was in in uproar. Although in the past few months those investments are shaky at best the leadership stood up against the greens, thank god the people at UBC that are actually IN CHARGE aren’t “fluffy thinkers”!
One of my biggest problems with Universities is that they have allowed “students” to hang around for years beyond the time they are supposed to graduate. To me that has got to stop!

Crispin in Waterloo but really in Beijing

tobias smit
I did not hear that UBC had been targeted as well for the ‘fossil fuel disinvestment’ campaign. Thanks for that. It is just starting at Waterloo U. It was attempted at Queens last year which held long hearings to collect submissions. The investment board concluded that a) such disinvestment would only be symbolic with no meaningful impact, b) that it would cost the university returns on investments they manage for no meaningful gain, c) that they are responsible to produce results, d) that empty symbols have no value to anyone. All there are paraphrases – the text is available on line.
That campaign was visibly supported by, among others, USA-based 350.org. One can assume it is part of the US-financed campaign to prevent Canada building pipelines through which to export its oil wealth to overseas customers (read, China). The BC Premier recently commented negatively about the rent-a-mobs that have been blocking energy projects, lately the natural gas loading port project. She has been so off-message the CBC has had to reduce coverage of her complaints. But Christy said it again in Toronto last week.

simple-touriste

Emotion over reason.
Same old same old.

Marcus

…Hmmm….Glo.Bull Warming is causing too much ice ?? Umm, ok…

Menicholas

We should dynamite them an opening.

Marcus

That Giant Iceberg would make a lot of bottled water, drag that sucker to California and get rich !!

I like it! I’ll go for the ice rather than the water, if I may. I will have scotch with mine.

Was there not a plan to do just that oh 40 years ago?

Tobias, what happened, did somebody drink it already? 🙂

lee

Dick Smith, an Australian entrepreneur, dragged a fake ice berg into Sydney once as an April Fool’s joke.

Hivemind

“That Giant Iceberg would make a lot of bottled water, drag that sucker to California and get rich !!”
Dick Smith did that once, he had an iceberg towed into Sydney Harbour. It was a fake, of course, just like all global warming is.

urederra

Marcus
February 13, 2016 at 5:12 pm
That Giant Iceberg would make a lot of bottled water, drag that sucker to California and get rich !!

Some people will say that you are accelerating sea level rise. If they have found a way of making CO2 look bad, they can find a way of making about anything look bad.

PeterD

Go to the SMH article comments section and read what David Killick wrote, very interesting.

John F. Hultquist

Thanks for that lead.

papiertigre

I have just returned from two months at Cape Denison. The Adelie penguins there are in good health. Their numbers are down, perhaps a bit under half of what I’ve seen in the previous four expeditions I’ve been on there since 1997 but the ones that remain are not starving or silent but rather in rude and noisy form and breeding well. There are many tens of thousands of penguins and chicks present.
The actual decline in numbers in Dr Turney’s paper is hard to determine. These are the figures quoted in table 1 of the original paper: Mawson reported perhaps 200,000 birds.In 1931 there was 10,000. In 1974 there was 2000 adults. In 1982 there was 3500. In 1997 there was 24,000. The iceberg arrived in 2010. In 2011 there was 26,000 birds. In 2013 he reports 5230 occupied nests, so something like 10,000 adults plus chicks. (So the suggestion 150,000 birds have disappeared is way off). But Dr Turney was at Cape Denison barely a day and in my experience a proper survey of penguin numbers at this site takes several days if not weeks. My suspicions is the counts don’t really tell us much. Certainly this summer there was tens of thousands of birds at the site, far in excess of what Dr Turney has reported.
The good news is a fresh count was conducted this summer by a fastidious observer over several weeks. I suspect it will go some way to allaying fears that the Adelie penguins of Cape Denison are dying out. The other good news is the walk across the sea ice is only 12km at present, much less in most cases because there are plentiful tide cracks further in.
Commenter
David Killick
Location
Hobart.
Date and time
February 12, 2016, 9:35PM
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/giant-iceberg-could-wipe-out-adlie-penguin-colony-at-cape-denison-antarctica-20160212-gmslgx.html#ixzz407ivcBhA
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

papiertigre

In short Turney is full of carp. Nice of David to bend over backward not to make as fine a point of it.

papiertigre

This kind of blew up big, appearing in USAToday. Hopefully, since Turney is a bald faced prevaricator who went into the global warming racket because he wasn’t skillful enough to make a go of it picking pockets on the subway, or manly enough to roust old ladies out of their pensions, hopefully, once generally discovered, this will be the end to him. He’ll be cashiered to bother us no more.

B.J

Thank you.

Analitik

Here’s the study that David Killick mentioned
There is still good, thorough, honest (non-glamorous) scientific work going on down there
http://www.themercury.com.au/lifestyle/hobart-gp-sally-hildred-takes-the-pulse-of-penguin-colony-in-antarctica/news-story/cdd060b108051cbb32bfbd69580c6c51

Eve

My problem is that the iceberg grounded in the bay in Dec 2010. What has Chris been doing for the last 5 years and two months? Writing a paper about it? Watching the penguins die? Is the iceberg still there? Has he tried to break it up? Lots of questions Chris.

Wrusssr

Actually he roughed out a draft of the paper while he was icebound. Then it was off to find an iceberg, penguins, etc . . .

papiertigre

And Turney was only there one day. Just long enough to make his predetermined beat up of a story almost plausible.

ozspeaksup

yeah..watching them die is an “interesting experiment”
if they really gave a damn they’d dynamite a hole or find some means to assist them..
thats of course IF? they are actually dying in such vast numbers as to wipe them out
it seems that may NOT be the truth anyway

Raven

. . thats of course IF? they are actually dying in such vast numbers as to wipe them out
it seems that may NOT be the truth anyway

Interactive Map
To reveal the geographical distribution of an individual penguin species,hover the cursor over its name.
It would appear that the Adelie Penguin is the most widely dispersed and abundant species by far.

bjc70

Who’s “Beano” ?

“Adélie penguins living in the Ross Sea region in Antarctica migrate an average of about 13,000 kilometres (8,100 mi) during the year as they follow the sun from their breeding colonies to winter foraging grounds and back again. “Follow the sun” means that during the winter the sun doesn’t rise south of theAntarctic Circle, but sea ice grows during the winter months and increases for hundreds of miles from the shoreline, and into more northern latitudes, all around Antarctica, so that as long as the penguins live at the edge of the fast ice, there will be sunlight. As the ice recedes in the spring, they remain on the edge of it, until they are once again on the shoreline during a sunnier season. The longest treks have been recorded at 17,600 kilometres (10,900 mi).[22]” wiki
Weird Chris….

papiertigre

This +

catweazle666

Seems Chris Turkey doesn’t know as much about penguins as he thinks.
New research using satellite images reveals that emperor penguins are more willing to relocate than previously thought
Discovery of colony movement challenges long-standing theory that emperor penguins return to the same area each year to nest
A new study led by the University of Minnesota offers new insights on the long-term future of emperor penguins by showing that the penguins may be behaving in ways that allow them to adapt to their changing environment better than we expected.
Researchers have long thought that emperor penguins were philopatric, which means they would return to the same location to nest each year. The new research study used satellite images to show that penguins may not be faithful to previous nesting locations.
Researchers involved in the new study found six instances in just three years in which emperor penguins did not return to the same location to breed. They also report on one newly discovered colony on the Antarctic Peninsula that may represent the relocation of penguins.
University of Minnesota College of Science and Engineering researcher and the study’s lead author Michelle LaRue shared her findings at the IDEACITY conference in Toronto on June 20. The study will also be published in an upcoming issue of Ecography, a professional journal publishing research in spatial ecology, macroecology and biogeography.
“Our research showing that colonies seem to appear and disappear throughout the years challenges behaviors we thought we understood about emperor penguins,” said LaRue, a research associate in the University’s Department of Earth Sciences. “If we assume that these birds come back to the same locations every year, without fail, these new colonies we see on satellite images wouldn’t make any sense. These birds didn’t just appear out of thin air—they had to have come from somewhere else. This suggests that emperor penguins move among colonies. That means we need to revisit how we interpret population changes and the causes of those changes.”

http://discover.umn.edu/news/science-technology/new-research-using-satellite-images-reveals-emperor-penguins-are-more

bit chilly

so we don’t know what we think we do regarding a single species of penguin,but we know all we need to know regarding cagw . as we say in these parts “aye right !”.

What is irksome about mr. ‘ship of fools’ is that he doesn’t mind claiming that penguins have died from:
A) being so far from the water
B) unable to make the long trip
But, mr. ‘ship of fools’ turney is unable to point to any dead penguins.
A) There are not piles of dead penguins at the colony
B) There are not trails of dead penguins leading to the water’s edge
Which means the penguins either drowned or were scarfed up by great white sharks and killer whales or, like most sensible birds, they decided to swim somewhere closer and not bother walking 60km again.
Has anybody ever actually verified that the ship of fools master can count?

CaligulaJones

Our results have important implications for wider East Antarctic if the current increasing sea ice trend continues.

See:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full
“We investigated this in detail and show that for central Antarctica an increase in CO2 concentration leads to an increased long-wave energy loss to space, which cools the Earth-atmosphere system. These findings for central Antarctica are in contrast to the general warming effect of increasing CO2.”
So again, it is presumably all our fault. Is that correct?

markl

Werner Brozek commented: “….http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL066749/full….So again, it is presumably all our fault. Is that correct?”
Amazing, do they really believe people will believe CO2 will cause both heating and cooling but only in areas where it will do harm? CO2 is very devious. I’ve failed to find where this conjecture is explained in a cohesive manner.

PeterK

“I’ve failed to find where this conjecture is explained in a cohesive manner.”
markl: What you don’t understand with ‘climate change’, is that a molecule of CO2 that is located in the warm / warmer parts of the world reacts and magnifies the heat molecules, causing run-a-way global warming.
Conversely, CO2 molecules found in the cooler / colder parts of the world reacts and magnifies the cold molecules, resulting in a colder climate and possibly run-a-way global cooling.
Reading what you wrote, tells me that you don’t understand how CO2 works in the atmosphere and also I do believe that you are not a qualified ‘climate scientists’ of the third order to opine as you did.

papiertigre

That co2 is versatile.

Antarctica is the only place on earth where the surface is routinely colder than the lower stratosphere. They believe that since the lower stratosphere is radiating at a higher temperature than the surface in Antarctica, additional radiation from CO2 at this level cools the planet. This is probably true.
Where they go astray is their belief that there is a continuum of absorption and radiation from CO2 from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Almost like conduction from the surface to space. This is not true anywhere on the planet. There is a radiation gap in the CO2 bands between about 100 meters above the surface and the lower stratosphere. The light is exhausted.
CO2 begins to radiate again in the lower stratosphere because it is lit up again indirectly by solar energy captured by ozone. By this means increasing CO2 cools the stratosphere not only in Antarctica, but all over the planet.

Ed Zuiderwijk

This cooling occurs when the surface is colder than the atmosphere above it, which in central Antarctica during the winter is the case: the only way heat can be transported to the centre is by air currents, which therefore necessarilly must be warmer.

Takes all of one minute to ascertain that this is the most common penguin. There are over 250 colonies, which have been increasing. The population has increased by 53% in the last 20 years (Hmmm). That theyb are extremely migratory with the average migration at over 8,000 KM and a long of over 10,000 KM.there are millions, and there is no evidence this collision simply did not have large numbers move as they are perfectly capable of and have been observed doing many times. They are very playful, gutsy fellows and this is their primary weakness. They will chance a predator to dive and sled for fun.

Oops. Should be miles, not kilometers. BTW, these are the most studied penguins and the most beloved, which is why this sympathy play, I suppose.

What scientists say, things like what Tourney has said, wrt all the doom/ alarm of AGW is completely contrary to nature, contrary to reason or common sense; it is absurd; it is senseless; it is utterly foolish. It is all those things to such an extent that it cannot reasonably be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional of media investigative reporters.
That means they are all gamers and mimics, thus applied reasoning has been pre-empted.
John

Correction to ‘John Whitman on February 13, 2016 at 5:30 pm’: Tourney, it should be ‘Turney’.
John

simple-touriste

“It is all those things to such an extent that it cannot reasonably be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional of media investigative reporters.”
Can the idea that (hetero) mens have twice as many sexual partners than women be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional, gullible or plain stupid of media investigative reporters or member of the public?
Yet I think I have been hearing that since I have been watching the news on TV.

simple-touriste on February 13, 2016 at 6:14 pm
– – – – – – –
simple-tourist,
You have pioneered psycho-sexual climate alarmism. Congratulations . . . not.
John

clipe

?

“One survey, recently reported by the federal government, concluded that men had a median of seven female sex partners. Women had a median of four male sex partners. Another study, by British researchers, stated that men had 12.7 heterosexual partners in their lifetimes and women had 6.5.
But there is just one problem, mathematicians say. It is logically impossible for heterosexual men to have more partners on average than heterosexual women. Those survey results cannot be correct.
It is about time for mathematicians to set the record straight, said David Gale, an emeritus professor of mathematics at the University of California, Berkeley.
“Surveys and studies to the contrary notwithstanding, the conclusion that men have substantially more sex partners than women is not and cannot be true for purely logical reasons,” Dr. Gale said.”
http://scienceblogs.com/purepedantry/2007/08/14/men-and-woman-cannot-have-diff/
People who accept things prima fascia are gullible idiots.

markl

simple-touriste commented: “…Can the idea that (hetero) mens have twice as many sexual partners than women be accepted, prima fascia, by even the most unprofessional, gullible or plain stupid of media investigative reporters or member of the public?…”
Exactly. Somehow common sense mean less than appeal to authority? And who/what authority? The King has no clothes? There’s been insignificant/no warming to cooling (depending on your data set) in the last twenty years yet continually absurd connections to AGW are made as if it were occurring and expect people to accept the claims anyway.

DonM

Aphan,
it may just be twisting statistics and letting the reader jump to conclusions … average (mean, median,mode …?)
Or some respondents exaggerate upward and some the other way … what a surprise. People that enjoy the hype (or actually need it to get through the day) then accept the responses … what a surprise.

Hugs

Aphan a median is very different from average. Think about four males at two and four females at one and one at four. In that case medians are one and two.

“simple-touriste February 13, 2016 at 6:14 pm”

I presume you know where the ‘blue light’ districts are that equal the size of the ‘red light’ districts?
And that you know a lot of lady sailors/soldiers heading to town after long privations?

“Aphan February 13, 2016 at 7:16 pm”

Not to worry Aphan:
Follow-up researchers catalogued men and ladies approximate honesty, noted that men who did talk, bragged; ladies who did talk, tended to pander to questioner’s responses (shock effect), both men and ladies who didn’t like to respond were very recalcitrant about any numbers greater than one.
Then there was an early attempt at DNA research in France where the researchers had difficulty getting permission to test whole families. Curious until the researchers noticed that a percentage of the families they did test had at least one child with a different Father than the one of the surveyed family… Ooo La La Oops!

simple-touriste

“I presume you know where the ‘blue light’ districts are that equal the size of the ‘red light’ districts?
And that you know a lot of lady sailors/soldiers heading to town after long privations?”
????
This was NOT a discussion about prostitution. I don’t want to go there unless you tell me why I should go there.

papiertigre

Ship of fools Turney? This just gets better and better.

Jeff (FL)

500 polar bears look up from their I-Pads and start hitch-hiking.

HAHA! I love it! Thank you for that, Jeff. 🙂

george e. smith

The species of penguin that replaces the Adele will be more adaptable to their changing environment.
G Empty niches don’t stay empty for long.

There are millions of Adelie penguins in the Antarctic, and the Adelie has adapted very well to it’s changing environment. Turney knows as much about penguins as he does about sea ice=not enough.

Andrew

Didn’t one of the stupid things migrate to NZ, turning up at Wellington (on the north island)?
I’ve been calling climate “scientists” penguin counters. I meant it as a sarcastic label. I hadn’t realised he has spent the last 6 years actually counting penguins!

Hivemind

Well, they don’t just count themselves, do they? It’s a tough job, but somebody has to collect all that grant money.

toorightmate

If wicked old mankind can change the climate, breaking up an iceberg should be a piece of cake.
And the disappearing penguins can reappear!!!!!!
“The Science of Stupid” – starring the unlearned professor.
I took a shipload of fools to Antarctica to show them the disappearing sea ice – and got stuck in the sea ice.
I worked with other fools to find that the increase in sea ice is trapping icebergs which is killing penguins.
You couldn’t make this stuff up.

Gary Pearse

“But in December 2010 an iceberg bigger than the ACT grounded in the bay, trapping floating sea ice near the coast.”
Note the subliminal (non) reference to a reason why his Ship of Fools was taken by surprise. He’s unwittingly transferred himself to the Adelie penguin colony and their (posited) plight. This iceberg is also the reason why Antarctic ice is expanding so much when the Fools were expecting a globally warmed coastline. You can see the psychological harm that was done to the guy with the Ripley’s Believe it or not hugest hubris in the world. He is cursed to keep writing the same story in every way he can to to try in vain to escape from his Foolishness.

Dreadnought

So, old Chris(tmas) Turkey pops his head up above the parapet again after his toe-curling Ship Of Fools fiasco.
I’d have expected him to cobble together a study that was at least vaguely plausible. Perhaps this is his swan song.

It sounds like the problem is that it is too cold for the iceberg to melt. Or is the fool trying to say icebergs never happened before the warming following the LIA.

Actually that is the core of the observation, something lost on this dolt. The Antarctic iceshelf as wellthe continental ice mass is increasing.

David A

.. and the southern oceans have been cooling.
Penguin colony A is decreasing, Nearby Penguin colony B is increasing. CAGW cientist does not know that colony A moved into colony B. Counting is not easy, they all look alike and put on the same damm suit every day.

H.R.

David A says:
” Counting [penguins] is not easy, they all look alike and put on the same damm suit every day.”
I believe that’s one of the circles of hell, though I forget which one. You don’t get out of that circle until you count all of the penguins. If you get the wrong number, you have to start all over again.
It makes for a tough choice. Do you want the torment of fire and brimstone or do you want to count penguins for eternity?

Yirgach

A certain song comes to mind…

Dave in Canmore

End the free money to these academic fools! There are just too many real problem on this earth. The only thing climate science has taught me is what a tragic waste of everyone’s money has gone on for 20 years.
This madness will only end when the free money ends. Period. You want to study something? Find someone to freely give their money to it. Without billions of dollars being taken from people and spent with no oversight and no value demanded back, this climate madness would be literally nowhere to be found. This just makes me so angry.

bit chilly

i will second that motion. in this day and age it is an absurd waste.

I agree, Dave. I used to think we were a modern civilization on the brink of wonderful things, now I feel more that we are still in the dark ages, ruled over by imbeciles and shysters. The scope of this abominable waste is too huge to ignore. Those responsible should not be allowed to skulk back into the shadows and get away with it. I fervently hope that the backlash, when it comes, will be severe. It will certainly be merited.

markl

A.D. Everard commented: “…Those responsible should not be allowed to skulk back into the shadows and get away with it. I fervently hope that the backlash, when it comes, will be severe. It will certainly be merited.”
+1 “Those responsible” is debatable. The useful idiots and greedy ones are obvious but the facilitators are well hidden. I think the UN is “those responsible” with the support/direction of Socialist/Communist/Ist empire builders with the backing of wealthy Capitalistic individuals having ideology crisis.

Maggy Wassilieff

Adelie Penguins are quite capable of establishing new colonies.
http://www.aukjournal.org/doi/pdf/10.1642/AUK-14-31.1

John F. Hultquist

Thanks for the link.
But there too they write: … “ including 8 that we conclude have gone extinct.
Someone should write Heather & friend and ask the basis of that “we conclude.”
Maybe a new colony moved on to an ice shelf nearby and the now missing ones said — too close, bye, bye.

So the embarrassment didn’t end his nonsense then?
For all I know, when he and his “tourist” shipmates got stuck in the ice they ate all the penguins. It might have happened.

Krudd Gillard of the Commondebt of Australia

Would have thought Christmas Turkey would have gone to ground forever after by now but, no, he just keeps sticking his head up…

Marcus

There were also a lot of icebergs around at the start of the last little ice-age. The Guardian was one of the ships in the 2nd fleet to Australia that hit one of them and ended up floating slowly to South Africa. Maybe today’s Guardian will eventually be sunk by the reality of the latest little ice-age.

Bob Burban

The penguins on the Galapagos Islands north of the equator either swam there or were rafted on iceberg(s) … probably the latter.

littlepeaks

Did you ever wonder why there are no dead penguins on the ice in Antarctica? Where do they go?
Wonder no more!!!!!!! It is a known fact that the penguin is a very ritualistic bird which lives an extremely ordered and complex life. The penguin is very committed to its family and will mate for life, as well as maintain a form of compassionate contact with its offspring throughout its life.
If a penguin is found dead on the ice surface, other members of the family and social circle have been known to dig holes in the ice, using their vestigial wings and beaks, until the hole is deep enough for the dead bird to be rolled into, and buried.
The male penguins then gather in a circle around the fresh grave and sing:
“Freeze a jolly good fellow.”
“Freeze a jolly good fellow.”
You really didn’t believe that I know anything about penguins, did you?
I am sorry, an urge came over me that made me do it!!!

H.R.
ralfellis

For-eze. Ho,ho, ho.

Reed Coray

Thanks for the laugh. You’ve made my morning.

Reed Coray

Make that: “You’ve made my mourning.”

Paul Carter

The report relies on questionable philopatry:
From http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/07/01/blinded-by-beliefs-the-straight-poop-on-emperor-penguins/
“Believing Emperors are loyal to their breeding locations (philopatry), whenever researchers counted declining penguins at their study site, they assumed the missing penguins had died. However other studies had shown populations could suddenly double, and such observations challenged the notion of philopatry. “

Nigel S

British Antarctic Survey “top penguin expert” live on BBC via satellite phone yesterday (13 Feb, 17:25 GMT) downplayed the philopatry argument but still managed to blame the increase in sea ice on global warming.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0707r9q (from 25:38)

rabbit

“As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline, and make the travelling distances for some of these colonies even further than they have been.”
Doesn’t all ice flowing from Antarctica’s ice sheets into the ocean eventually break off and float away? How is this increased by global warming?

Robert

Penguins killed by ice and snow ! Now I believe but can’t help but think was it exactly 160 thou or was it rounded .

indefatigablefrog

So, how did the first Adélie penguin get there?
Or did they just manifest into existence at that breeding site? (from another dimension, perhaps).
Or have they been there since the beginning of time?
They never discover new breeding sites, so clearly all penguins at all individual breeding sites are, in reality, actually entirely different species of animal and not even related.
Is it my imagination or are academic scientists the very last people to understand that the world is a place where “shit happens” and there are “known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns”.
Everybody laughed when Rumsfeld shared these words of wisdom with the world.
But plenty of people are late getting the message.
Also as the Buddha may not have explained, but certainly Darwin did – change is constant and inevitable, especially for wildlife, which has no postal address or property deeds. Are academic scientists actually living in a world of childlike discovery in which they marvel at the discovery of basic stuff that is plainly obvious to most of the other residents of the planet?
Obviously Chris Turney can’t be quite that stupid so I am inclined to suppose that he is simply looking for attention and money. He probably doesn’t really give a crap about penguins.

David Cage

Where on earth do they train scientists now? Surely even a GCSE school kid will know that if the temperature is warm the iceberg will melt overall. What is more there will be plenty of places where localised melting allows sufficient area for them to feed. The existence of a huge iceberg that is not melting proves that any effect is not global but localised and one needs to examine where it started out from for a localised source of heat. I wonder why NASA chose never to provide updates for its file AMSRE_SSTAn_M-MOD_LSTAD_M which clearly shows that large localised natural events are providing much if not all of the global warming and the areas are nowhere near large human population or industrial areas. Could it be that reality is off message compared to climate science?

Billy Liar

The B-9B iceberg came from the B-9 iceberg which broke off the Ross Ice Shelf in October 1987. It will be having its 30th birthday next year!
I severely doubt whether B-9 calved from the Ross Ice Shelf due to global warming since ice shelves tend to break up for mechanical reasons (storm/tide stress) as they progress further out to sea.
No large berg (>1,000 km²) has calved from Antarctica since 2002.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recorded_icebergs_by_area

Chris Turkey, leader of the ill fated 2013/14 Ship of fools expedition to the Antarctic just keeps on giving and giving us bizarre stories. This latest Emperor Penguin tale is one of his best spoofs.

John F. Hultquist

Adélie penguins

Steve R

Perhaps Mr Turney is having difficulty getting over his recent trauma of being stranded by the ice, and projecting this trauma on the penguins?

stock

The massive arrogance of this idiot “we got stuck in our own experiment”

confusedphoton

I find it amazing that most people are unaware of penguins living in warm conditions – South Africa and Galapagos. They are not dying from heat exhaustion!!!!!!!!

professor turkey explains Antarctic ice science
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/AntarcticaCool.jpg

Coeur de Lion

Some time ago the BBC conned poor Dickie Attenborough to stand on a beach in Antarctic and complain about the disappearance of the ice and the Adelies.

mwhite

http://iceagenow.com/Glacial_Maximum_World_Map.jpg
So how did they survive the last ice age???

emsnews

And notice how 90% of Russia including SIberia, was glacier free! This is proof that seeing how the climate works, to watch for Ice Age conditions, one simply looks at Hudson Bay, epicenter of all Ice Ages. If it doesn’t melt in summer, we are in an Ice Age again.

Think I know what happened here. If I was a penguin hearing biochar salesman Turney’s manic Tom Cruise laugh, I’d head off in the other direction too.

richard

“As the planet warms you’re going to get more ice melting. The reality is, more icebergs will be released from Antarctica and just embed themselves along the coastline”
same old, same old me thinks!
” On January 2, 1868 the 1326 ton clipper “Mermaid” arrived in Lyttelton after an 89 day passage from GB and it was reported that, ” When in the vicinity of Cape Leeuwin, Captain Rose and his officers had an anxious time avoiding 30 huge icebergs.” Are icebergs seen off Albany or Margaret River ever these days ?”
” In February 1877, the “City of Auckland” was 1200 miles WNW of Cape Horn and ran into a patch of icebergs with fog which kept them all busy for an afternoon. How common would this be these days in summer ?”
” In 1893 (after arriving in Nelson in September 92), the iron sailing ship “Margaret Galbraith” was homeward bound around Cape Horn. Mr. N.H. Burgess the 2nd Officer reported that from three days north of the Falklands to about one weeks sailing north of the Falklands they were “among the ice,” which culminated with a days sailing past a single giant berg “40 to 50 miles long,” The account suggest the ship may have been only making 3 to 5 knots around this time, certainly at night one would expect them to throttle back. They had a close call on first encountering the ice north of the Falklands.
It may be partly by chance that the length of this iceberg was reported because the sailing people seemed more impressed by the height of ice encountered than the extent of any particular piece. The 40 to 50 mile long berg mentioned above was reported as being 1000 ft asl at the NE end”
” The 1000 ton plus iron sailing ship “Himalaya”, on a 109 day voyage from Liverpool to Wellington, departed 9, November 1894 and arrived 25, February, 1895. The captain reported seeing several icebergs off the Cape (of Good Hope) and then, “.. that from the Cape to the Crozets was a most trying time as icebergs were in sight for a distance of two thousand miles.”
The same “Margaret Galbraith” on a 123 day passage to Napier arriving 15, January 1895, was surrounded by ice for six days in the vicinity of 44 S Latitude and 25 E Longtitude.

fretslider

Why on Earth does Turney bother? He’s oblivious to his total lack of credibility.
““They don’t migrate,” he said. “They’re stuck there. They’re dying.“
Really?
Adelie Penguins are migratory and after breeding do not return to their colonies until the next spring.
http://www.penguinworld.com/types/adelie.html
“Adélie penguins living at the far southern extreme of their geographic range migrate an average of about 13,000 kilometers during the year as they follow the sun from their breeding colonies to winter foraging grounds and back again.
“They’re definitely making a longer distance migration than we thought,” said Grant Ballard External Non-U.S. government site, lead author of a study recently published in the journal Ecology that examined the birds’ past and present migration patterns, and how changes in climate and sea ice extent might affect migration patterns in the future.”
http://antarcticsun.usap.gov/science/contenthandler.cfm?id=2230
Like I said, why does he bother?

emsnews

It is all the fault of the penguins for not leaving him their new address when they moved. Or maybe they were running away from him, he bothers them too much.