Guest essay by Eric Worrall
h/t JoNova – The floor show from Aussie climate scientists whose jobs are on the line is continuing. Now that climate job security is a thing of the past, it turns out there are all sorts of uncertainties about climate projections, which maybe didn’t get much exposure, back in the golden years of government funded research.
According to The Guardian;
In the email to staff on Thursday, Marshall said that since climate change was proven to be real, CSIRO could shift its focus.
“Everybody is laughing at Marshall’s statement,” the scientist told Guardian Australia. “Who is he to declare that climate change is answered? The IPCC says so many problems are not answered yet. And unless you know how the climate is changing, how do you adapt to it?”
Read more: http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/05/senior-csiro-scientist-derides-chief-executives-claim-climate-change-is-answered
It gets better. Tony Haymet, who seems to have parachuted safely into a professorship at the SCRIPPS Institution of Oceanography in the US, before the Aussie climate job cuts started, had this to [say];
“If you are a complete failure, what you do is take one of your best divisions, shut it down, and invest in your pet project,” Haymet said.
“That’s the coward’s way out … The job is to raise more resources. It’s like shutting down the Australian cricket team, saying we need a lacrosse team, and spending three decades investing in that.”
…
“We’ve only seen the beginning of climate change. We don’t know what the heck is waiting for us
Read more: Same link as above
Then there are really lame excuses for keeping the tax money flowing, like the following from Neville Nicholls, Professor Emeritus, School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University;
This decision cedes our place at the big table with the adults discussing what to do about climate change. From today we join the minnows on the little table on the veranda, waiting to be told what we will have to do by the grown-up countries that still have access to high-quality climate science.
Read more: https://theconversation.com/csiro-is-poised-to-slash-climate-research-jobs-experts-react-54170
I mean seriously? Does it matter who produces the information? Not that much actual usable information has been produced to date, if we are to believe the sudden rush of assertions about the uncertainty of climate projections, and the need for more research.
Just imagine if similar climate research job cuts were looming in the USA and Britain. We might discover that we don’t really understand the climate system at all.
We used Newtonian physics to get to the moon and back. Those same basic physics govern whether a cataclysmic meteor is careering toward our planet, and we don’t know what the heck is waiting for us. That doesn’t mean we need 1 million meteor scientists to sit around to one-up each other on ever-more catastrophic predictions on how soon a meteor might hit. We don’t need a million meteor scientists to create computer models of how the impact of a meteor strike might play out with ever larger meteors, or over 10,000 years in the future.
If the science is settled, the scientists need to go work on other things of more gravity that are still unknown, rather than argue over how many CO2 molecules dance on the head of a pin.
I dunno. Didn’t a meteor just kill some poor bloke in India? That is the problem with these change things. First one bloke, then two, then 4, then … and before you know it millions will die of meteor change.
Millions won’t die from meteor strikes until someone finds a reasonably plausible way to blame meteors on Man.
(Loose bolts from the space station?)
Gunga Din
It was George Bush wot done it!
Brings new meaning to hiding under a rock.
Exactly! Illegal aliens! First one sneaks in- and it was assisted by who? Global warming, that’s who! Warmed up the air before the meteor got here so there would be less resistance. That nice Indian man was probably a climate scientist- just going about his everyday efforts to save the planet from evil industrialists when he was ruthlessly attacked by an illegal alien rock.
But it might be worth it to have a million astronomers cataloging ALL of the possible meteors careening around the solar system that might hit us though.
We know, sooner or later the earth will be hit.
The same can’t be said for AGW.
That sounds like a method to find a million meteors only to discover that they’re all the same meteors.
Plus all million ‘new’ astronomers will be shrieking that is “worse than they thought”.
Remember, jobs for ex ‘climate science’ team members must take advantage of their skills while avoiding tempting them to use their less salubrious skills and weaknesses.
Ditch digging, underground coal or uranium mining, asteroid farming, moon lander flag men, mars dust sweepers, comet drivers…
Near Earth Object detection
See http://www.boulder.swri.edu/clark/ncarhist.html
And https://carlkop.home.xs4all.nl/shoegra.html
You don’t need a million astronomers to do it. It’s a job for several people with the proper equipment.
However, once cataloged, you still have to have a couple of Orion class spaceships ready, preferably on low Earth orbit. Especially for an object zooming in from deep space on a hyperbolic trajectory, never ever seen and never cataloged. That’s how it should be done.
It costs money, but the ultimate doomsday costs even more. The technology is around for half a century anyway.
AtheoK: I recall that a number of years ago a nuclear physicist postulated that there was only one electron that somehow zoomed all over the universe.
Actually, “ultimate doomsday” costs nothing at all.
The issue is that astronomers are honest and were clear about what the risks were. To this day, they still are.
Climate science does not have this type of integrity. Not even within orders of magnitude.
This is my argument. There is historical evidence that is REALLY indisputable that asteroids strike the earth with significant impact every 2 million years or so and really big asteroids every 60 million years or so. We are currently definitely on the “DUE” situation. Nevertheless it might take a million years or it might hit tomorrow.
What we do know is that when one of these buggers hits there is an extremely high probability of 1 billion or more deaths. This will make any other natural disaster or possibly all other natural disasters ever to hit the world in humankinds history combined into one disaster. The results will be stressful for the earth but it will survive however, having 15% of al humanity killed in one hit will be unbelievable magnitude. This is not speculation. It is a fact that will happen.
Unlike Global Warming which will take hundreds of years to manifest and we can adapt to or that we can warn ourselves of impending storms, we can build buildings to survive 9,0 earthquakes. We can have rapid response teams to storms or other normal disasters or anything that global warming could throw. On the other hand an asteroid strike will give us possibly a month or two warning if we are lucky. In any case understanding how an asteroid will break up in the atmosphere and impact is impossible. So, we won’t know who will be hit until the thing actually is in the atmosphere and crashing. At that time no mitigation, no building codes, no underground shelter or fast response would help. 1 billion people will die and that’s it within minutes.
Is it worth spending a few billion here and there to track these things? To work on ways to deflect asteroids or to build alternate safe havens like mars? The CAGW crowd is worried about a degree or two. If an asteroid hits like this the earth will be plunged into ice ball earth again for possibly hundreds of years or thousands and many more will die. The climate will fall 10s of degrees overnight and possibly stay that way for whoever is alive at the time or survives lifetime.
I realize it is a remote thing but it is real. It will happen. We ignore it and continue as if that day will never happen. Life could be snuffed out on this little planet in many ways. The sun itself could have a little outburst and engulf the earth in massive radiation and heatwave that would melt and kill as bad as any asteroid or worse. As far as we know this is the only place in the entire universe that life has started and come to this point. It would be ashame if this tiny singular spot of life incredibly rare were snuffed out and humans did nothing to insure that life itself, that the little miracle we have here is lost forever so that the universe would remain lifeless rock for trillions of light years in all directions (some think it is that big).
I have trouble understanding what the CAGW crowd thinks the negative effects of all this CO2 are. They speak in these apocalypic terms. I am aware there are apocalyptic scenarios but climate change by CO2 is not something I can grasp. The seas go up a few meters in a few hundred years? Really we are worried about saving beachfront property owners of the future? Food supply imperiled? Really? With all the technology, increasing arable land, longer growing seasons they think this is remotely believable? Diseases from the tropics coming to get us? Really with so many mutations of existing bugs ahead of us and improvements in medical technology it is hard to believe this is the big risk. I just don’t understand what they are worried about. It makes no sense to me. None of it makes any sense. I try but it simply is stupid.
Those golden years were taxpayer funded. Government has no inate means of funding anything.
G
Planet X will mess up all the orbits so it won’t matter any way … 😉
Fantastic! The question is, if government funding was available to disprove CAGW would you accept the job?
I project (not predict) that 97% of all climate scientist would accept money to disprove CAGW.
Well I’m sure that the 2500 Nobel prize winning scientists will quickly be snapped up to work in other fields.
I hear that they are having trouble keeping plasma warm enough for long enough for commerially viable nuclear fusion. They could use their expertise to correct the temperature data.
The guys a BOM managed to turn cooling into warming over a whole continent, I’m sure they create a little more heat in a small confined volume. It just needs to be homgenised. Since they refuse to publish their methods they are in the enviable position of being the only ones who know how to do it.
They can name their price !!
Since the IPCC is 95% certain, we only need to keep about 5% of them on to tie up the loose ends.
The rest should be able to find some seasonal work : picking cherries. They’re good at that.
The Nobel prize presumably acknowledges somebody who discovered something important. Patents sort of do the same thing.
Neither one bestows universal knowledge on the recipient. There’s no history of such successes being repeated with success in other fields.
Marie Curie is just about the only dual Nobel winner in two different fields. (Physics and Chemistry I believe).
Sadly, her successes killed her.
G
mike , that is a whole new level of sarcasm right there, brilliant .
Mike–this made me bust out laughing, “I hear that they are having trouble keeping plasma warm enough for long enough for commerially viable nuclear fusion. They could use their expertise to correct the temperature data.”
Actually Shelly, since the plasma fields do not hold the heat, certainly they could just surround them with CO2, a million parts per million, presto fusion solved.
==
The contradictions in these “scientists” wishing to keep their gravy are astounding…
==============================
“And unless you know how the climate is changing, how do you adapt to it?”
==============================
What the hell, they just spent 20 years telling us how the earth is warming CATASTROPHICALLY! Now they do not know “how the climate is changing” I will “adapt” by looking out side. If it is raining I will bring my umbrella. Neither you, me, or society should listen to one word these yahoos utter, let alone fund them.
LOL this made my day.
RichardK,
No (with respect) that is NOT the question.
Please remember when, how and by whom the term “global warming” was invented. That “inventor” is a known liar who has no proof whatever that CO2 is a pollutant and therefore the onus is entirely upon the “inventor” to give such proof.
It is NOT for me or for you or anyone else to disprove that which was NOT invented by any of us.
None of us is likely to have ever used the term before it was invented.
There is no such thing as global warming: there never was.
Regards,
WL
A few thoughts…
Regarding the CSIRO cuts, what we’re likely to see is something similar to the purges by Stalin in the mid to late 1930’s back when it was really hot (maybe that was global warming caused?). Anyone not deemed completely loyal and completely politically on point will be the first to go. See ya’ all you lukewarmers.
Will this be like making concentrated orange juice out of a bunch of oranges? Just add grant money down the road and it reconstitutes. And if those that remain head off to Antarctica again, will it be like frozen concentrated orange juice in the little cans in the freezer section? But I digress…
Maybe I’m being naïve and there were none that were ever off-point or lukewarm (and would never accept money to actually look at the CAGW theory scientifically).
In any case, you can be assured that the worst of the climate hooligans will remain.
hoo·li·gan
ˈho͞oləɡən/
noun
a violent young troublemaker, typically one of a gang.
synonyms: troublemaker, delinquent, juvenile delinquent, mischief-maker, vandal, alarmist climate non-scientist
So then, we in the USA can expect another Cold War? This time with Australia?
Somebody, ANYBODY !! Please tell me WHEN, in the last 4.6 billion years of the Earth’s history, did the climate STOP changing ???
That’s the question the alarmists refuse to answer because the answer would embarrass them and maybe set people thinking. And we can’t have THAT.
I guess now they know how coal miners feel.
Of course there’s always performance art.
OMG….how embarrassing for them.
Bondi, Gold and Hoyle were Cosmologists but their Steady State Theory was wrong. So what point is the video making? Do Climate Scientists in videos have total authority in Climate science?
Well, that convinced me. And “I’m a fuckin’ climate scientist”. Who would have guessed?
Maybe I’ll go watch my plants grow now… That was really, debilitating?
Here are more climate scientists.
If you have to justify your job to others, your job isn’t really justifiable, is it? If you’re a fireman, you don’t need fires to “prove” the worth of your position. Ditto a policeman, the trash collector, the doctor, etc. Next time, don’t claim the science is “settled”. Keep them guessing.
In Ray Bradbury’s sci-fi novel Fahrenheit 451, it was the firemen making the fires: out of books lest anyone think outside the party line. See any parallels to cli-fi writers at CSIRO?
That’s always been a great issue with the whole CAGW swindle. We have been lectured to and threatened by the so-called experts for years The experts have expressed undying certitude in their predictions. To which I say, “Dear Expert, you expect us to reshape the world’s economy and everyone’s lifestyle, so you cannot be wrong about anything you say.” And now when the gravy train isn’t arriving, these experts say, “Oops, we’re not sure about a whole bunch of stuff.” Yeah, right. Now pick up your computer games and go play with them somewhere else.
More than threatened, people have lost jobs and careers, they have tried to rewrite international law, so sceptics can be imprisoned and silenced.
“We don’t know what the heck is waiting for us.”
*
Of course we know “what’s waiting for us”. They’ve made it abundantly clear. EVERYTHING is waiting for us: Drought, heat, rain, floods, snow, no-snow, earthquakes, volcanoes, giant jellyfish and meteorites – to name but a few of their promises and hype. We’re going to fry as the seas boil and freeze our assets off in the impending Ice Age. It’s all there!
They never could make up their minds, even though they claimed high certainty of each and every claim. Why should we pay them for their shoddy work and their computer games of make-believe? It is criminal to gain funding through *frord* and deception, is it not? What about inciting panic in order to bring down society and shut down civilization? People die when that happens. That ought to count for something. These people need to be investigated and charged.
Couldn’t their computer models calculate the job security sensitivity to doubling of scaremongering?
Accurately? Um….nope. Not that either. 🙂
… and depressed dogs and sharknadoes
Dang! I forgot the depressed dogs and the sharknadoes.
“We don’t know what the heck is waiting for us.”
I would hope that they would find honest work. Except that history shows that these people can’t do honest work. And no, I still can’t bring myself to call them scientists.
Typo alert: that’e fnord I think, not frord.
I totally believe that this is the result of “hiring” (developing, creating) “climate communicators” (aka advertising/marketing/propagandists) to talk to the world about “climate science”. They wanted the world to be scared…..so the climate communicators tried scaring the public to death with widgets and bombs and whatnot. No dice. So they tried to put a deadline on things-Kyoto, Al Gore’s line in the sand, Paris-to “force” the public to demand and end to fossil fuel usage. No dice. But at the same time they advertised Paris as a GRAND solution-so everybody took their parade chairs and parasols and went home.
But…but….wait…..we still need our jobs!….you’ve successfully marketed us OUT of work! You’ve created a situation in which either the world is doomed and we can’t stop it (so who needs to spend money keeping us at work) or we’ve struck a deal in which the world is saved (so who needs to spend money keeping us at work) !!!
I think HUGE congratulations to social scientists like John Cook, and Stephan Lewandowsky, and Dana Nuccitelli and other talented “climate communicators” are in order!!! For what? Why, for so ineptly misunderstanding/miscalculating human behavior and helping to create campaigns that backfired so spectacularly on each other, that they almost rendered climate scientists obsolete in the process! Now…if Mickey Mann and Friends can render the satellite data/research obsolete as well, maybe we can defund NASA and NOAA’s “climate research” teams and get back to space exploration and marine biology???
Yes folks, this is what happens when the government hands out money to irresponsible, egotistical, completely illogical people. They end up eating their own on the way to fame and citations per publication!
I have always said that CAGW promoters can and will do more damage to their own arguments than any “skeptic” could ever hope to do to it.
You’re right on. The people that act out of fear always have something more immediate to worry about than sea-level rise 50-80 years from now. Scare tactics can work, but the consequences must be immediate, personal and devastating.
i think you nailed the situation perfectly there aphan .
@ur momisugly Aphan, I love the “eat their own” remark, it is time for popcorn and a brew! . I do fell somewhat sorry for the guys that lost their jobs but hey that’s what you get for being a sycophant instead of your standing up!
Aphan:
+10
Richard
I have to agree to an extent, but I think you sell vocal skeptics short a bit. Australia is the first to de-fund “climate science” but they weren’t a major contributor to start. When the US see the light, and Europe rolls over, the job will be largely finished. Until then this is a battle won, but the war isn’t over.
Without a vocal skeptical audience, who would force the cAGW proponents to make the absurd claims and idiotic rebuttals they have? In a vacuum of blind acceptance they just thrive at the public trough. Don’t count yourselves worthless.
Bartleby,
Oh I don’t discount vocal skeptics at all. I have no doubt that the war isn’t over yet. 🙂
It has just never ceased to amaze me how stupid and counterproductive Cook and Lew and others have been. (especially since they work in the social sciences) I seriously hope that someday someone does the research to find out if there’s a correlation between Cook and Lew and Oreskes and others behaviors and the INCREASE in skeptics over time. It would be the cherry on that crap Sundae if they actually had a profound influence on it’s downfall.
Oh…and PS….I find it ironic (in a fun sort of way) that Australia is ALSO the place where some of the most prominent “climate communicators”/CAGWers are employed.
Settled science consequences unsettled the scientists who settled the suddenly now unsettled science according to unsettled scientists.
Trying to have your cake and eat it too usually ends in severe indigestion.
What I find remarkable is you have guys with advanced degrees in technical fields scared to death because they might get laid off and have to look for another job. Meanwhile here in this country, coal miners and workers in industries that support them are being laid off by the thousands in rural areas where there aren’t many other jobs, particularly ones that pay as well as mining. I have a lot sympathy for the miners but much less sympathy or empathy for the researchers.
It was the cries of “bad coal…BAD BAD COAL” from the guys with the advanced degrees in technical fields that caused the coal miner/worker lay offs. It’s too bad that the laid off tech/scientists don’t have to stand in the unemployment lines with the laid off coal miners because I suspect that the coal miners would beat the living crap out of them.
+ Many and deservedly so!
Looks good on ’em, doesn’t it? Guys AND gals, presuming CSIRO is an equal opportunity expunger.
Sean, given the absolutely lousy “science” these people with their questionable advanced degrees have been practicing, I believe the coal miners are more employable and have better chances of landing jobs. Charlatans do not last long in private industry.
And if predictions of cooling are accurate, the coal miners will be employed again long before the climateers are.
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
How to keep your government funded climate job. Lessons 101-103 :
– “We have no idea what the climate is doing.”
– “The science is not settled.”
– “The 97% consensus thing was merely a propaganda tool to prove our theory when the data wouldn’t.”
I wonder if Cook et al covered this in their Denial 101 online course? (snark)
People I hate to point this out, but no one has gotten a pink slip yet.
The Australian Gov is going to be under tremendous pressure to rescind the layoffs. They will in all likelihood demand Mr Marshall’s head on a platter.
The question is will the powers that be hold their ground.
michael
Mike please keep us up to date on this and on this thread, Thanks!
Typo alert:
Should it be say?
Lacrosse – The effect is similar to Australian Rules Football played with bloody huge clubs. The sport has been considerably cleaned up. Not nearly as many people die playing it these days.
Lacrosse was often played between Eastern North American tribes to settle disputes rather than going to war. Lacrosse was like a war game, like “Climate Science”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_lacrosse
Are Footie matches still allowed 4% casualties amongst players before the match is abandoned?
Well if the famous ‘97% of Climate Scientists’ agree that the Science is settled we no longer need them.
So sack the 97% and put the funding to the 3% that have other ideas.
I bet that in a few years it would be 3% saying ‘The Science is Settled’ and 97% saying we need more research.
I regard the long term climate models as the computerized equivalent of witch craft – nobody knows exactly what is going on but it creates a hell of a lot of noise and keeps the shaman gainfully employed…
Maybe we need a cartoon of scientists dancing around a computer and a chap in the background pulls the plug…
Apologies to Joni…A more complete version
Both Sides, Now
Environmentalists claim to care
that CO2 is added to the air
from energy that’s used everywhere
They’ve looked at climate that way
But now they only mock the sun
They say rain and snow will never come
So many things they could have done
But climate got in their way
They’ve looked at climate from both sides now
From hot and cold, and still somehow
It’s climate illusions they recall
they really don’t know climate at all
Carbon turns the models wheel
It drives the temperature you feel
This fairy tale will soon come real
they’ve modeled climate that way
But Paris is just another show
They’ll all be crying when you go
And if you care, don’t let them know
Don’t give yourself away
They’ve tweaked the models from both sides now
From give and take, and still somehow
It’s model’s illusions they recall
They really don’t trust models at all
But Models and Data don’t agree
The temperature has stagnated you see
they couldn’t let the data be
It just got in their way
But now the data is looking strange
They temperature record’s changed
The Data’s lost, the science defamed
It’s changing every day
They’ve looked at climate from both sides now
From win and lose and still somehow
It’s climate’s illusions they recall
they really don’t know life at all
They’ve looked at climate from both sides now
From win and lose and still somehow
It’s climate’s illusions they recall
they really don’t know life at all
But they themselves told us that the Science was settled! 97% of them were in agreement. They said that the certainty and confidence was now over 95%. Nothing more to be done, was there now? Bye, bye……
They rely on expert judgement. But without the experts, all is lost.
Do not expect adult behavior from spurned scientists. Back in the 1980’s, I was visiting the old Sperry Research Center when the announcement came, out of the blue, that the facility was being closed. By sundown, that bunch of outraged PhD’s had stripped its office-supply storeroom of every pencil, pad, staple and scrap of paper in it. Only a few, forlorn paperclips remained scattered about the floor. The place looked as if a Viking raiding party had passed through.
So, what the soon-to-be-unemployed climate scientists are saying is, “we don’t know what we’re talking about and what’s happening to the climate, so we need funding and jobs to find out.”
I’ll take them at their word … they don’t know what they’re talking about. Why waste money on their nonsense when there are more pressing concerns needing attention in the here and now.
But the best way for them (grant leaches, profiteer and politicians) to benefit from the CGI here and now is to scare people about the there and then.
I’m an engineer with 35+ years of experience and have no problems finding work. I build stuff that employees other people and gives them the opportunity to manage their own lives. Environmental scientist/climate scientist/activist or whatever; build theories that are targeted at disrupting the free markets, killing jobs and enslaving people to the government. They feel powerful by having the control.
I’ve been involved in science for a long time and these people are not scientist, they are trained activist who despise capitalism and have very little science skills. My opinion of course.
Jjs. I’m a physicist with 35+ years experience. I too have no problem finding work. I’ve worked mostly in industry including nuclear and healthcare. While you and I were doing useful things like building stuff people needed, developing useful products, doing real research to seriously understand the world around us and solving problems something strange has been going on at the universities.
I just can’t imagine what my PhD supervisor would say to me if I told him that my computer model was more believable than the data. It seems like there has been a complete moral breakdown in academia.
Many of us have been saying if the science is settled and the debate is over, why do we need a 100,000 climate mechanics armed with one linear equation which they refuse alter even after over 35yrs.
I think we can call this the Stephen Schneider Effect. They took him at his word that cliSci has to exaggerate and lie as much as they feel comfortable with to get the message out there and to express no uncertainty. Well cliSci, we’ll done.
This is much bigger than Csiro. The Unis are choc full of students who are facing irrelevance and professors who won’t be needed. If the pause filled up clinics with cliSci folk in classical psychological d*Nile, layoffs will fill the need for psyche ‘resource teams to prevent them from doing harm to themselves. Melissa, I warned you five years ago to not take environmental option in geology but you put me in the spam folder.
My daughter too (sigh)
My daughter is working in a liquor store she telling me sales are up!
“We don’t know what the heck is waiting for us.”
Well, unemployment for one.
Bruce they have been offered the opportunity to go into mitigation, but at this stage its uncertain whether any of them will make the cut.
That climate change job trend graph in the article looks like a reversed hockey stick. I wonder if that will correlate with temperature trends soon, or, will they just keep adjusting the data to death.
Welcome to the real world. The climate guys are now just starting to worry about their futures. Just wait until you lose your jobs for real like hundreds of thousands of oil/gas industry people – like myself – who are already out of work. Mind you it’s worse for us as we were actually doing something useful.
If only there was some kind of device that could be launched into space where it can measure climate change for the whole planet! Then each country wouldn’t need hundreds of people to measure climate change; they could provide genuinely GLOBAL datasets! Imagine the resources saved!
It’s thousands of people and there is such a device up there and the data twisters are trying to kill the satellite data. Its okay for these pesky satellites to tell us what is happening on Mars (which BTW also had a shrinking ice cap in the 1990s.), Titan, Saturn and the rest, but don’t do that kind of stuff for the earth.
“but don’t do that kind of stuff for the earth.” – or more to the point, don’t do it with the Earth and forget to make it show a nice warming trend, exactly the same slope as the most popular models show. Not most correct, you notice – it’s just a beauty contest.