Antarctic Sea Ice as a "cork" to prevent CO2 release

From the UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE and the “thank goodness Antarctic Sea Ice is growing” department comes this surprising finding.

Antarctic Sea Ice anomaly since 1979 to present. Note that it is currently summer in the southern hemisphere.
Antarctic Sea Ice anomaly since 1979 to present. Note that it is currently summer in the southern hemisphere.

Melting of massive ice ‘lid’ resulted in huge release of CO2 at the end of the ice age

A new study reconstructing conditions at the end of the last ice age suggests that as the Antarctic sea ice melted, massive amounts of carbon dioxide that had been trapped in the ocean were released into the atmosphere.

The study includes the first detailed reconstruction of the Southern Ocean density of the period and identified how it changed as the Earth warmed. It suggests a massive reorganisation of ocean temperature and salinity, but finds that this was not the driver of increased concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The study, led by researchers from the University of Cambridge, is published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The ocean is made up of different layers of varying densities and chemical compositions. During the last ice age, it was thought that the deepest part of the ocean was made up of very salty, dense water, which was capable of trapping a lot of CO2. Scientists believed that a decrease in the density of this deep water resulted in the release of CO2 from the deep ocean to the atmosphere.

However, the new findings suggest that although a decrease in the density of the deep ocean did occur, it happened much later than the rise in atmospheric CO2, suggesting that other mechanisms must be responsible for the release of CO2 from the oceans at the end of the last ice age.

“We set out to test the idea that a decrease in ocean density resulted in a rise in CO2 by reconstructing how it changed across time periods when the Earth was warming,” said the paper’s lead author Jenny Roberts, a PhD student in Cambridge’s Department of Earth Sciences who is also a member of the British Antarctic Survey. “However what we found was not what we were expecting to see.”

In order to determine how the oceans have changed over time and to identify what might have caused the massive release of CO2, the researchers studied the chemical composition of microscopic shelled animals that have been buried deep in ocean sediment since the end of the ice age. Like layers of snow, the shells of these tiny animals, known as foraminifera, contain clues about what the ocean was like while they were alive, allowing the researchers to reconstruct how the ocean changed as the ice age was ending.

They found that during the cold glacial periods, the deepest water was significantly denser than it is today. However, what was unexpected was the timing of the reduction in the deep ocean density, which happened some 5,000 years after the initial increase in CO2, meaning that the density decrease couldn’t be responsible for releasing CO2 to the atmosphere.

“Before this study there were these two observations, the first was that glacial deep water was really salty and dense, and the second that it also contained a lot of CO2, and the community put two and two together and said these two observations must be linked,” said Roberts. “But it was only through doing our study, and looking at the change in both density and CO2 across the deglaciation, that we found they actually weren’t linked. This surprised us all.”

Through examination of the shells, the researchers found that changes in CO2 and density are not nearly as tightly linked as previously thought, suggesting something else must be causing CO2 to be released from the ocean.

Like a bottle of wine with a cork, sea ice can prevent CO2-rich water from releasing its CO2 to the atmosphere. The Southern Ocean is a key area of exchange of CO2 between the ocean and atmosphere. The expansion of sea ice during the last ice age acted as a ‘lid’ on the Southern Ocean, preventing CO2 from escaping. The researchers suggest that the retreat of this sea ice lid at the end of the last ice age uncorked this vintage CO2, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

“Although conditions at the end of the last ice age were very different to today, this study highlights the importance that dynamic features such as sea ice have on regulating the climate system, and emphasises the need for improved understanding and prediction as we head into our ever warming world,” said Roberts.

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January 5, 2016 9:12 am

We know incremental CO2 has a minimal effect on the temperature, so what’s the big deal? It’s all just part of the fear mongering used to justify the existence and agenda of the IPCC.
The only possible use for this ‘knowledge’ would be as an escape valve for the next ice age where we can blow up the Antarctic to put CO2 into the atmosphere and keep agriculture from crashing and the world from starving,
If they really wanted to scare people with facts, rather than fantasy, they should talk about the inevitable catastrophe that will result from the next ice age. Of course, the truth doesn’t fit the narrative …

RACookPE1978
Editor
January 5, 2016 9:14 am

I am not buying their theory:
If this “massive” – but NOT named nor measured! – Antarctic Sea Ice Meltoff in the distant past led to a “massive” release of CO2 at the end of the last Ice Age, then a “large” melting of Antarctic Sea Ice in today’s world should lead to (at least!) a detectable CO2 release in today’s world.
Conversely, a “large” sudden “freezing” of Antarctic sea ice in today’s world should lead to a detectable change in CO2 in today’s world.
However, in today’s world, the “seasonal” changes in Antarctic sea ice have been changing. Further, these seasonal changes used to vary from 1.5 Mkm^2 at minimum in February up to 14-15 Mkm^2 in September. Quite a large change in itself, but we see only a small predictable change in CO2 levels that is (by “all” expert opinions at present – due entirely to the growth and fall of northern hemisphere leaves and plants. These “writers” of their Antarctic sea ice-CO2 meltoff need to explain what percent of today’s CO2 seasonal changes are due specifically to the yearly seasonal changes in Antarctic sea ice seen every year since the satellite records began in 1979.
They have not apparently done this basic “back-check”.
Worse, they need to explain how today’s truly “massive” “CO2-contradictory” Antarctic sea ice INCREASE since 1979 from a “average” minimum of 1.5 Mkm^2 up to today’s 2.5 to 3.0 Mkm^2 is “proved” by their theory to retain CO2 in the deep ocean at levels higher than in the earlier satellite sea ice years.
At the other end of the sea ice season, they also need to establish by measurement (or comparision between “model results” of sea ice levels) that today’s much HIGHER maximum sea ice levels in September also retain CO2 at the expected/predicted increased rates – rates that should differ from the “usual” seasonal rises and drops due to northern hemisphere plant growth and death.
But it is worse than that.
If a “change from the Antarctic sea ice anomaly” is triggering the predicted “change in the retention of CO2 in the depths” that their theory predicts, then we should see a change in “measured daily/weekly/monthly CO2 anomaly levels” when Antarctic sea ice actually does change significantly.
Well, in today’s world, several sudden 2 and 3 Mkm^2 changes in Antarctic sea ice did occur in the satellite record. Look at the Antarctic sea ice anomaly chart above again: In 1979-80-81, Antarctic sea ice dropped by 3.0 Mkm^2, rose back to +1.0, then dropped again back to -1.0 Mkmk^2. The writers should show either a corresponding change in CO2 anomalies, or show why such a change should NOT have occurred. (Sea surface and deep water circulation times, dwell times in their proposed cycle, lack of area, wrong area of sea ice growth and loss, wrong time of the month, or whatever.)
But sudden large changes in sea ice (changes occurring over on a few months) happened again and again: 1985, 1988, 2005, 2009, 2011, 2015. There is no such change in CO2 levels.
But. Consider that perhaps their theory needs a truly massive change. A sea ice minimum increasing from 1.5 Mkm^2 – not to 3.0 Mkm^2, but to 15 or 20 Mkm^2. A sea ice maxium increasing from today’s latitude 58 area of 16 Mkm^2 up to … 35 Mkm^2? 40 Mkm*2.
If so, what is their evidence of how far the “Ice Age” southern ice edge was? Sea ice cannot leave morrains, nor carve valleys into the waves. Each seasonal maximum melts, and the “edge” of the melting has no rocks nor glacier debris carried from the land mass out that far from the coast. (Near the coast? Maybe something is visible under the undersea muck and buildup continuously dropping from above. But that is NOT the outer rim of the yearly sea ice edge!)

January 5, 2016 10:36 am

No problem, Jamal. But stop using fossil fuel products if you like, no need to be hypocritical.

David in Texas
January 5, 2016 1:12 pm

Are they talking about the end of the last ice age, Karoo Ice Age which ended 250 million years ago or the last glacial period which ended about 12,000 years ago? We are living in an ice Age now, the Current Ice Age. Anyone?

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  David in Texas
January 5, 2016 1:15 pm

I’m sure they mean the last NH glaciation of the present Cenozoic Ice Age or Ice House.

Gloateus Maximus
January 5, 2016 1:27 pm

Antarctic sea ice extent at the LGM, from 1998. For comparison, in the Tierra del Fuego region of South America, Cape Horn lies at 56°S and Punta Arenas at 53°S:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/98GL02012/full
We used modern analog technique applied to Antarctic diatoms to quantitatively reconstruct seasonal sea-ice extent at the Last Glacial Maximum. Winter maximum sea-ice limit occurred around 48°S in the Atlantic and western Indian sectors, around 55°S in the eastern Indian and western Pacific sectors, and around 58–60°S in the eastern Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Summer maximum sea-ice extents during the last ice age and today are similar, which contradicts CLIMAP’s findings. This implies a reduced summer albedo feedback of the Southern Hemisphere and a greater transfer of heat and moisture from the ocean to the atmosphere than shown by previous qualitative studies.

co2islife
January 5, 2016 6:43 pm

Melting of massive ice ‘lid’ resulted in huge release of CO2 at the end of the ice age
A new study reconstructing conditions at the end of the last ice age suggests that as the Antarctic sea ice melted, massive amounts of carbon dioxide that had been trapped in the ocean were released into the atmosphere.

That pretty much debunks the theory that CO2 leads Temperature, and you would expect a rapid spike in the CO2, which you don’t find in the CO2 record.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  co2islife
January 6, 2016 4:06 am

Yup. The warming oceans naturally released more CO2, bumped up a little by the removal of “permanent” sea ice cover.

John F. Hultquist
January 5, 2016 10:48 pm

“. . . and the community put two and two together and said . . .”
Old joke. What is 2 + 2? {Feel free to replace lawyer with climate scientist.}
The lawyer was interviewed last, and again the final question was, “How much is two plus two?” The lawyer drew all the shades in the room, looked outside to see if anyone was there, checked the telephone for listening devices, and then whispered, “How much do you want it to be?”

Gloateus Maximus
January 6, 2016 4:48 am

This paper appears similar, if not identical, to this one from MIT in June 2014:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/06/140602160001.htm
Solving the puzzle of ice age climates: Southern Ocean and explanation for ‘Last Glacial Maximum’

Gloateus Maximus
January 6, 2016 5:33 am

The narrow strait that existed during the LGM between an enlarged Patagonia and the Falklands must have frozen over, allowing the Falkland Islands wolf to have arrived there from South America over winter sea ice.
http://www.nature.com/ncomms/journal/v4/n3/full/ncomms2570.html

Brett Keane
January 6, 2016 3:41 pm

Steven Mosher
January 5, 2016 at 4:33 pm: re those supposed laws of physics Steven. If you are going to make such claims, please state them to us, and defend them. No, didn’t think so. Just another drive by shooting…..

philsalmon
January 6, 2016 4:03 pm

Holocene inception began about 22 kYa (thousand years ago) with Antarctica starting to warming. The NH at the same time slightly cooled. However at about 14 kYa the “Bolling-Allerod” (BA) happened, i.e. the NH abruptly warmed, as evidenced by Greenland cores. This caused a reciprocal pause and slight reversal in the (already long established) gradual Antarctic warming – the bipolar seesaw. In opposition to the BA, Antarctica went into cooling – the much studied “Antarctic reversal”. At the time of the BA there was a sharp rise in global sea level – 20 meters in 500 years. Weaver et al 2003 (link below) show that this was caused by a collapse of the gradually warming Antarctic ice sheet. The pulse of fresh meltwater from Antarctica had the effect of speeding up the AMOC and the gulf stream in the NH, bringing rapid warming to the NH and the BA.
A basic oceanographic feature comparing the NH with the SH in the palaeo record is more fluctuation and instability in the NH and more stable, gradual changes in the SH. The nonlinear instability of the AMOC is the root of this. It is driven by the salinity positive feedback in the AMOC. Also, there is a clear signature of interhemispheric bipolar seesawing, whereby when the NH moves in one direction, the SH moves in another.
The bipolar seesaw continued – the BA warming was shortlived. Down in the deep ocean, interactions between cold bottom water formed in the Antarctic and Arctic caused – about a thousand years later – an abrupt stoppage of the AMOC and the gulf stream. This ended the BA. In fact the cuplrit was Antarctic Intermediate water (AAIW) – see again Weaver et al. With the interruption of the gulf stream the NH went cold again – the Younger Dryas. In response – by now you get the picture – the Antarctic did the opposite and turned to gradual warming. After about 1000 years of NH cold with no gulf stream, the effect of the Antarctic collapse subsided allowing the AMOC and the gulf stream to resume. By now the gradual Antarctic warming was more or less complete, around 12 kYa. Warming at in the NH was completed at the same time by abrupt warming which terminated the YD. This marked the final end of the last glacial and the Beginning of the Holocene.
http://rockbox.rutgers.edu/~jdwright/GlobalChange/Weaveretal_Science_2007.pdf
http://epic.awi.de/15280/1/Lam2004a.pdf
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/97GL02658/pdf
O wait … scratch all that! It was all just due to CO2!
No need to do science any more. Just need to learn to say “SEE OWE TOO”.

philsalmon
January 6, 2016 4:12 pm
Brian H
January 7, 2016 12:15 am

Go back & read the WUWT entry: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/22/volcanoes-and-ozone-their-interactive-effect-on-climate-change/ .You will never credit/blame CO2 for warming again.

January 7, 2016 10:03 am

Andy May – sample sea water below present ice and see if there is more CO2 -a great idea that would definitively settle the question but climate science doesn’t do data gathering. They make a model from their minds, run it on big computers and “sample data” from this universe instead.
Crispin in Waterloo
January 5, 2016 at 3:28 pm
“”Earth Sciences who is also a member of the British Antarctic Survey. “However what we found was not what we were expecting to see.” Yeah, well then, it shows that earlier models and assumptions were and are contradicted by reality. Shades of most climate science. The idea that ice creates a cap surely has to be based on “keeping the water cold” not “a cap”.”
Also, what caused the warming that ended the glacial period and warmed up the oceans so that the ice could melt and release CO2 (and why, then, should we care?). Are they saying that this caused the Holocene Climate Maximum (I don’t like the obfuscating term ‘optimum’ – it avoids saying warm in the same fashion as “pause” says resumption of warming is a year or few from now. The ‘pause’ was such a stressful load for them and their faithful that, regardless of optics and smell, they had to kill it. The experience of ‘Climategate’ taught them that Alinsky was correct, just keep lying and the pecadillos will be lost in time.)