Lindzen: A recent exchange in the Boston Globe clearly illustrated the sophistic nature of the defense of global warming alarm

Guest essay by Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT

A recent exchange in the Boston Globe clearly illustrated the sophistic nature of the defense of global warming alarm.

In the December 3, 2015 edition of the Boston Globe, the distinguished physicist, Freeman Dyson, had on op-ed, “Misunderstandings, questionable beliefs mar Paris climate talks.” His main point, stated immediately, is that any agreement reached in these talks would “likely do more harm than good.” In an otherwise, thoughtful commentary, however, Dyson begins with a common error. He attributes the basis for climate alarm to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

For reasons that I will address shortly, this is an entirely understandable error. Dyson’s description of the IPCC position is

“The IPCC believes climate change is harmful; that the science of climate change is settled and understood; that climate change is largely due to human activities, particularly the release of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by industrial societies; and that there is an urgent need to fight climate change by reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide.”

To be sure, it would be hard to identify the ‘beliefs’ of the IPCC, but I take it that he means their position. Obviously, the IPCC does not claim that the ‘science is settled;’ that would destroy the raison raison d’être for the existence of the IPCC.

Also, insofar as the IPCC is not supposed to make policy recommendations, it does not claim “that there is an urgent need to fight climate change by reducing emissions of carbon dioxide.” That climate change is harmful is, of course, the basis for the existence of the IPCC, and is an intrinsic source of regrettable bias. The IPCC does not claim that climate change is mostly due to human activities generally; it restricts itself to the period since about 1970, which was the end of the most recent cooling period (a period which gave rise to global cooling concerns). Even the IPCC recognizes that climate change has always occurred – including a warming episode from about 1919 to 1940 that was almost identical to the warming episode from about 1978 to 1998 that the IPCC does identify with human activities. However, all the claims cited by Dyson are frequently made by politicians and environmental activists (including Ban Ki Moon, Secretary General of the UN), and the IPCC scientists never really object. Why should they? Support for climate science (a rather small backwater field) has increased from about $500 million per year to about $9 billion.

Dyson, further notes that the ice ages were major examples of climate change that we don’t fully understand, and that lacking this understanding suggests that we don’t really understand climate change. As another example of something that we don’t understand, he cites the potential role of the sun. Dyson then goes on to praise environmentalism in general, to approve of the increasing wealth of China and India, and their understandable unwillingness to forego this, and finally notes the well-known fact that CO2 is plant food whose increase has been associated with extraordinarily valuable increases in agricultural productivity.

In the December 13, 2015 Boston Globe, 8 members of the MIT faculty (three physicists, two hydrologists, one meteorologist, and two atmospheric chemists) attacked both Dyson and his claims. Their letter was entitled “So much more is understood about climate change than skeptic admits.”

They proceed to express their dismay with Dyson’s “limited understanding and short-sighted interpretation of basic elements of climate science.” There follow 3 disingenuous objections to Dyson’s scientific examples. As concerns ice ages, the MIT professors argue that they took thousands of years, allowing humans to adapt. They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades. With respect to the sun, they argue that solar activity changes have been minor, ignoring the potential amplification due to solar impacts on cloud formation, most recently explored by Svensmark and Shaviv, but already suggested by Dickinson in the 1970’s. With respect to the role of CO2 as plant food, the letter writers appeal, without justification, to other limiting factors, ignoring that the greatest limiting factor, water, is alleviated with elevated levels of CO2. They also ignore literally hundreds of observational studies.

The letter writers then propose that ‘prospects’ in renewable energy, energy efficiency and safe and secure nuclear energy should presumably justify the abandonment of cheap, safe and available fossil fuels by developing nations. Yes, safe. Control of real pollutants is well developed already.

The letter writers go on to their only unambiguously correct claim: namely, that the IPCC does not declare that the science is settled. They then present the iconic statement if the IPCC’s Working Group 1 (the one dealing with the scientific assessment – as opposed to the remaining 2 working groups that generally begin with worst case scenarios in order to claim impacts and design mitigation strategies): “The IPCC report presents strong evidence that more than half of the climate change seen in recent decades is human-driven.” One may readily disagree with the claim of ‘strong evidence’ since the claim (based on model results) depends on the assumption that models correctly display natural internal variability which very clearly they don’t.

That said, the claim that most of the climate change since 1960 is due to human activities, refers to more than half of a change on the order of only 0.5C, and is entirely consistent with the possibility that the sensitivity is low and far from dangerous – especially since model projections for warming since 1978 have almost all exceeded what has been observed (regardless of ‘adjustments to the data). Indeed, the warming since the end of the little ice age (around 1800) of about 1C has been accompanied by improvements in virtually all measures of human welfare. Why another 1C should be considered planet threatening is rarely explained. The letter writers’ conclusion that the observed warming implies “a great risk that increasing greenhouse gases will result in future climate change with destructive consequences for humanity and the natural environment” does not follow from the iconic statement; nor is it made by the IPCC. Rather, it is, as has already been noted, the conclusion that is added by environmental activists and politicians.

A careful reading of the letter of the 8 professors leaves one wondering whether the dismay they express over Dyson’s “limited understanding and short-sighted interpretation of basic elements of climate science” is not merely a projection of their own limitations and biases.

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daveandrews723
December 26, 2015 6:51 am

But those 8 scientists are “saving the world”, don’t you know? Just ask them. Oh, and they have also built very nice careers for themselves with the HUGE increases in climate science grants over the past couple of decades. Those junkets to Paris, Copenhagen, etc. aren’t cheap. But only a cynic (skeptic) would accuse them of putting their egos and self-interest ahead of science.

Santa Baby
Reply to  daveandrews723
December 26, 2015 9:00 am

No they are not saving the World. They are in fact destroying the World in order to save Marxism?

Ernest Bush
Reply to  Santa Baby
December 26, 2015 11:05 am

A great insight said with so few words. I am going to steal that last sentence and use it elsewhere.

Reply to  Santa Baby
December 27, 2015 9:52 pm

“Marxism,” “careerism,” “egos” — dream on, climate change–denying bozos, dream on. You”re all, quite simply and quite scientifically provably, crainiorectal.
You folks who don’t read the science, don’t read the data, huddle in conspiratorial covens used to worry me, but now you just crack me up.
You’re on the same level as folks such as these: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfMZ9sDXAp0
Yup, that’s you. Science has left you behind. You’re consigned to paranoid fantasies of conspiratorial leftists “steeeeeling me guns un me freedom ‘n’ me taxes!”
You’re wrong. Quite simple, provably, irrefutably, and embarrassingly, you’re wrong. “Wrong.” Y’know what that means? “Not right.” Got it?

Reply to  Rik Myslewski
December 27, 2015 10:00 pm

OK Ric, we did a test, and this is the result of your comment:
http://americandigest.org/aabullshitdetect.gif

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Rik Myslewski
December 28, 2015 8:16 am

Rik Myslewski

You’re wrong. Quite simple, provably, irrefutably, and embarrassingly, you’re wrong. “Wrong.” Y’know what that means? “Not right.” Got it?

This statement is true: “You’re wrong. Quite simple, provably, irrefutably, and embarrassingly, you’re wrong. “Wrong.” Y’know what that means? “Not right.” (There is no evidence of man-‘s present or potential future release of CO2 to be anything but beneficial to Mankind as a whole. )

MarkW
Reply to  Santa Baby
December 28, 2015 6:39 am

Wow Rik, so much disdain for people who don’t believe that govt is the solution to all problems.

Randy
Reply to  Santa Baby
December 28, 2015 11:32 am

“You folks who don’t read the science, don’t read the data, huddle in conspiratorial covens”
I so wish I could make long term legally binding bets. Clearly one of us hasn’t spent much time going over the intricacies of the data. LOL.

Reply to  Randy
December 28, 2015 1:22 pm

Check out Long Bets dot org. They’re legally binding. Or go to Las Vegas, they’ll fade anything.

Craig
Reply to  Santa Baby
December 29, 2015 10:19 am

@Rik – always fun to be lectured by an atheist who warships at the church of climate change. Remember this quote: “It was the hierarchy I didn’t like, the idea that there is one way of looking at the world, and it’s either my way or the highway. After that, it took me a few years for the scales to fall completely from my eyes and realize it’s not just the church that’s untrue. It’s also everything else it’s based upon.”

Goldrider
Reply to  daveandrews723
December 26, 2015 9:30 am

Soooo . . . let’s write a rebuttal and dispute them, point by point. That’s what it’s going to take for the average newsbag to start dismissing this stuff as the sophistry it is.

Ernest Bush
Reply to  Goldrider
December 26, 2015 11:02 am

@ Goldrider – If you mean MSM by newsbag, or the people who read or watch MSM pundits, they will simply ignore rebuttals. The truth impinges on core beliefs that university scientists are absolutely to be believed with no skepticism whatsoever. They have not been taught thinking, much less critical thinking. They will never feel the joy that comes in the exchange of ideas and discoveries. In a mob they may very well attempt to literally crucify those trying to rebut implanted ideas that now form a basis for their religious beliefs. It’s a minefield out there for skeptics.

Reply to  Goldrider
December 26, 2015 3:03 pm

Ernest
There is no longer a Main Stream Media. They are leftist and way out of the mainstream considering the population they wish to subject. It is propaganda and the and they only preach to the choir. The term MSM needs to be changed to something that would better identify them.
D

RWTurner
Reply to  Goldrider
December 26, 2015 10:14 pm

Nature is working on a rebuttal all her own. The temperature trend will be looking so negative once the next La Nina occurs that it will be fun to see how Climate inc. responds.

JohnTyler
Reply to  Goldrider
December 28, 2015 8:20 am

Goldrider:
You cannot be serious; no sentient person with the intellect of a pebble could possible believe what you suggest.
The AGW thesis is a political ideology akin to a religious movement. Just as citing the relevant passages in the Koran showing that islam is a religion of peace will have zero influence on the ISIS muslim killers, laying out the real climate science will have zero affect on the AGW true believers and their most influential propaganda arm, the mainstream media.
True believers cannot be swayed; they just believe. There is no evidence, fact(s), results, data – NOTHING AT ALL – that will even have them reconsider their belief. Add on top of that all the “research” $$$$ they receive, and you are literally trying to communicate with a dead horse.
Try convincing an individual who believes that the 9-11 World Trade attack was an inside job carried out by Bush/Cheney/Halliburton/Israeli Mossad that he/she is mistaken. And they don’t even get paid to believe that.
Good luck.

scribblerg
Reply to  daveandrews723
January 1, 2016 3:30 pm

@Rik – You do realize that you made that comment on an article written by a world renowned climate scientist commenting on the arguments made by one of the greatest scientists of the 20th century, yes? Ya wanna tell us all how “the Science has left you behind” still? Ya wanna try and stand toe to toe with Lindzen? Tell us all, could you even get admitted to MIT? Get accepted to a program he teaches? Get enough of his attention to support your research or doctoral thesis?
Do you realize how completely detached from reality you are? As for cringing over Marxism, apparently you don’t read leading voices of the AGW hysteria movement like Naomi Klein or Obama’s own energy czar who claims to be “rewiring the DNA of capitalism”? Or Obama himself who actually taught the tactics of Saul Alinsky in classes to “organize” – Alinsky a devout commmunist.
These are all straight up facts that are non-controversial and destroy your entire commentary and view. You claim to be scientific, I’ve just falsified your premise, are you going to change your position now? Lol, here’s what you really need to get. You are becoming irrelevant. Nobody actually believes you, they just tolerate you because they want to telegraph that they have “virtue”. In fact the entire catastrophic AGW cabal is run on virtue signalling – but in reality nobody believes you. No govt will take real steps, and nobody will vote for someone who does. Hmmm, what does that say about you, ehh, Rik?

richardscourtney
Reply to  daveandrews723
January 2, 2016 3:24 am

Rik Myslewski:
The above essay by Dr. Richard Lindzen, MIT, concludes saying

A careful reading of the letter of the 8 professors leaves one wondering whether the dismay they express over Dyson’s “limited understanding and short-sighted interpretation of basic elements of climate science” is not merely a projection of their own limitations and biases.

Your response says

You folks who don’t read the science, don’t read the data, huddle in conspiratorial covens used to worry me, but now you just crack me up.
You’re on the same level as folks such as these: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfMZ9sDXAp0
Yup, that’s you. Science has left you behind. You’re consigned to paranoid fantasies of conspiratorial leftists “steeeeeling me guns un me freedom ‘n’ me taxes!”
You’re wrong. Quite simple, provably, irrefutably, and embarrassingly, you’re wrong. “Wrong.” Y’know what that means? “Not right.” Got it?

Well, Lindzen certainly does “read the science”, and he does “read the data”: indeed, he provided much of it. Furthermore, his work leads “the science” so has not “left {him} behind”. His comments on “the 8 professors” are informed realism and NOT the “paranoid fantasies” which you imagine.
In other words, your post demonstrates beyond any possibility of doubt that you are wrong. Quite simple, provably, irrefutably, and embarrassingly, you’re wrong. “Wrong.” Y’know what that means? “Not right.” Got it?
In case you cannot grasp the reality of how utterly and completely wrong you are, I refer you to the wicki account of Lindzen whose views you have the audacity to call “wrong”.

Richard Siegmund Lindzen (born February 8, 1940) is an American atmospheric physicist known for his work in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, atmospheric tides, and ozone photochemistry. He has published more than 200 scientific papers and books. From 1983[1] until his retirement in 2013, he was Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.[2] He was a lead author of Chapter 7, “Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks,” of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report on climate change. He has criticized the scientific consensus about climate change[3] and what he has called “climate alarmism.”[4]

Richard

FijiDave
December 26, 2015 6:52 am

Ah, the voice of sanity. Well said, Dr. Lindzen.
And Season’s Greetings to you.

December 26, 2015 6:58 am

Dr Lindzen…your reply to the reply should also be in the Boston Globe.

lee_jack01
Reply to  B'wana Finklestein
December 26, 2015 7:46 am

+1
It’s concerning that the MIT 8 does not recognize this.
“A careful reading of the letter of the 8 professors leaves one wondering whether the dismay they express over Dyson’s “limited understanding and short-sighted interpretation of basic elements of climate science” is not merely a projection of their own limitations and biases.”

ShrNfr
Reply to  lee_jack01
December 26, 2015 4:50 pm

Sadly, there are grant whores at MIT too. It is enough to make me want a refund on my PhD from that institute.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  lee_jack01
December 26, 2015 11:34 pm

Here’s a photo from 2009 showing MIT’s new climate computer, AKA climate roulette wheel. This was NOT a joke! It was intended to epitomize MIT’s grasp of AGW as of publication. I’m not sure how they managed to keep straight faces during the photo shoot. I tried to contact MIT’s News Office to verify that this was a bit of whimsy, but received no reply, so I must assume they took this ludicrous piece of junk seriously. Prinn, one of the MIT eight, is third from the left in the 2009 photo.
http://news.mit.edu/sites/mit.edu.newsoffice/files/styles/news_article_image_top_slideshow/public/images/2009/200908311113506360_0.jpg?itok=OiSXfou7

Ann Banisher
Reply to  lee_jack01
December 27, 2015 6:31 am

I just refer to those professors as the Hateful 8,

Reply to  B'wana Finklestein
December 26, 2015 8:32 am

I don’t know which venue will give Dr. Lindzen’s reply more eyeballs. It is likely that Dr. Lindzen’s reply will have more relevant eyeballs given the specialist nature of WUWT and the general nature of the Boston Globe. readership is done differently for print and web.

ShrNfr
Reply to  TMLutas
December 26, 2015 4:56 pm

The readers of the Boston Glop usually have a skill set that only allows them to find a restroom (of some sex or other) at high noon on a cloudless day. To say that anything that does not parrot the “liberal line” would not be published and if it were, that it would be subject to derision is an understatement. You might as well be trying to convert the Pope to Buddhism if you tried to talk rational science with these folks. I will admit that they are not as bad as Bloomberg News, but they are not far behind.

jayhd
December 26, 2015 7:09 am

“limited understanding and short-sighted interpretation of basic elements of climate science”
What is “climate science”? From what I have read and observed, most of the climate scientists who perpetuate the AGW hoax are anything but scientists. Pre-eminent among them is Michael Mann, who refuses to release his data and methodology. Mann has no problem suing those who disagree with him, but refuses to answer interrogatories from those he is suing. And rather than debate the merits of their science and findings, the AGW proponents resort to name calling, personal attacks and attempt to stifle debate on the subject through legislative and governmental decree. So to me, “climate science” is on par with astrology and phrenology. In other words, it’s not science.

ferdberple
Reply to  jayhd
December 26, 2015 7:57 am

Astrology successfully predicts the ocean tides. Climate science projects with no skill. That is the difference between prediction and projection. Skill.

Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 8:43 am

you mean astronomy, no doubt

Menicholas
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 12:31 pm

Yes, for me, the only thing Astrology has ever predicted was, due to my being an Aries, I am therefore stubborn.

Aphan
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 12:37 pm

I’ve actually seen horoscopes more accurate than some climate studies 🙂

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 1:13 pm

I agree with Aphan: The astrology in newspapers is simply entertainment, but there are astrology sites and skills out there that are disturbingly accurate day after day. I don’t know how they do it but there you go, believe it or not.
PS: I’m not into astrology myself but a close friend is, and she has on many occasions read my stars from astrology.com and I have to admit, it is spot on 9 times out of 10.

Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 5:00 pm

In IPCC terminology, predictions are susceptible to “validation” while projections are susceptible to “evaluation.” It follows from the definition of “validation” in mathematical statistics that a “prediction” is a kind of proposition and that a “projection” is not a kind of proposition. Thus with reference to IPCC terminology “prediction” and “projection” are not distinguished by the level of the skill contrary to Mr. Berple’s assertion.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 5:16 pm

Terry Olberg…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 6:07 pm

BusterBrown:
I’ve used “validate” as it was used by the IPCC in writing its early assessment reports. In “Spinning the Climate” the IPCC peer-reviewer Vincent Gray reports informing IPCC management of the fact that none of its models had been validated, contrary to the claim that was made by an assessment report manuscript. IPCC management reacted by changing “validate” to “evaluate” in this and subsequent assessment reports.
Authors sometimes use “cross-validate” as a synonym for the term that Gray, the IPCC and I call “validate.” See, for example, the article at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-validation_(statistics) for Wikipedia’s definition.
In composing the manuscript for the peer-reviewed article at http://wmbriggs.com/post/7923/ I used “validate” in the same way as here. The referee, a PhD-level statistician and professor of statistics exhibited no difficulty in understanding what I meant. I’m surprised to learn that a person as accomplished in statistics as you claim to be would have difficulty.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 6:21 pm

Terry Oldberg says: “I’ve used “validate” as it was used by the IPCC in writing its early assessment reports.”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 6:27 pm

PS Terry Oldberg.

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  ferdberple
December 26, 2015 8:26 pm

BusterBrown:
Whether an article that was reviewed before its publication by a person holding an M.S. in meteorology and Ph.D in statistics, a person who was a professor of statistics at an elite research university and who had served on the committee of the American Meteorological Society on statistical issues was “peer-reviewed” when reviewed by him and published by him in his blog lacks logical relevancy. Whether a model that was not “validated” under the IPCC’s definition of the term was “validated” under your definition of the term is logically irrelevant.
If you’d like, we can move past your semantic quibbles and on to the substantive issue of the logic (if any) of the IPCC’s conclusions. Otherwise sayonara.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  ferdberple
December 27, 2015 4:34 am

Terry Oldberg makes mention of “semantic quibbles ”
..
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  ferdberple
December 27, 2015 11:20 am

Re. Greg Cavanagh
December 26, 2015 at 1:13 pm
Forer’s demonstration (one size fits all):
You have a great need for other people to like and admire you.
You have a tendency to be critical of yourself.
You have a great deal of unused capacity which you have not turned to your advantage.
While you have some personality weaknesses, you are generally able to compensate for them.
Your sexual adjustment has presented problems for you.
Disciplined and self-controlled outside, you tend to be worrisome and insecure inside.
At times you have serious doubts as to whether you have made the right decision or done the right thing.
You prefer a certain amount of change and variety and become dissatisfied when hemmed in by restrictions and limitations.
You pride yourself as an independent thinker and do not accept others’ statements without satisfactory proof.
You have found it unwise to be too frank in revealing yourself to others.
At times you are extroverted, affable, sociable, while at other times you are introverted, wary, reserved.
Some of your aspirations tend to be pretty unrealistic.
Security is one of your major goals in life.
See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barnum_effect
–AGF

David L. Hagen
December 26, 2015 7:20 am

Lindzen eloquently exposes the “climate shmexperts”! See Marc Fitch Shmexperts: How Ideology and Power Politics are Disguised as Science

We are constantly bombarded with studies and so-called expert opinions that are contradictory, controversial, and ineffective

Fitch explains why we need to apply common sense critical thinking to sift the “wheat from chaff” in such exchanges.
The Younger Dryas evidence Lindzen cites is expertly addressed by Don Easterbrook.

December 26, 2015 7:23 am

But it COULD happen, therefore, we must panic!

Jaakko Kateenkorva
Reply to  Reality check
December 26, 2015 7:45 am

That’s right RC. And if doesn’t happen, panic was for a good cause.

RockyRoad
Reply to  Jaakko Kateenkorva
December 26, 2015 9:14 pm

Panic is their only cause. Without panic, they have no cause.

urederra
December 26, 2015 7:26 am

“The IPCC report presents strong evidence that more than half of the climate change seen in recent decades is human-driven.” One may readily disagree with the claim of ‘strong evidence’ since the claim (based on model results) depends on the assumption that models correctly display natural internal variability which very clearly they don’t.

CAGW is not even a quantitative theory, and the aim is to keep it as ambiguous and undefined as possible. That way it is more difficult to falsify. Only if the theory is kept undefined they can arque that every single climate event is due to global warming. Blizzards in New York or Boston, polar vortex, south pole record ice extension and accumulation, the pause or hiatus, big lakes ice estension, the missing red spot, everything can be explained cualitatively with a mathematically undefined theory.

Warren Latham
Reply to  urederra
December 30, 2015 2:07 am

urederra,
You are EXACTLY right ! (They perpetuate the myth.)
Regards,
WL

waster
December 26, 2015 7:27 am

Why is it so difficult for ANYBODY to define climate change? A change in the statistical distribution of weather events over a long period (centuries). So show me the changes already.

Menicholas
Reply to  waster
December 26, 2015 9:59 am

All skeptics should refrain from using the term ?climate change”.
The meme is global warming, and we should not assist the climate liars in their slippery attempts to change the subject or obfuscate what they are claiming.

JohnWho
Reply to  Menicholas
December 26, 2015 7:59 pm

Concur. This has been mentioned many times.
The CAGW position has not been able to show evidence that human CO2 emissions are causing any discernable warming and if it isn’t doing that, it can’t possibly be causing a discernable change in the climate.

Reply to  Menicholas
December 27, 2015 12:28 pm

Yes, I fully agree with that thought. I typically respond to others with “Didn’t you mean to say catastrophic climate change?”. Or I will also use catastrophic global warming. The adverb “catastrophic” is the important addition in any conversation when responding to warmists so that any other readers of the comments are exposed to the true thought being expressed by warmists.

Warren Latham
Reply to  Menicholas
December 30, 2015 2:11 am

Menicholas,
Concur also.
I’ve been banging on about this for a long time with OTHERS HERE.
Anthony
Please, I ask again, DELETE the word “change” from your WUWT heading.
Thank you.
Regards,
WL

December 26, 2015 7:32 am

‘That said, the claim that most of the climate change since 1960 is due to human activities, refers to more than half of a change on the order of only 0.5C, and is entirely consistent with the possibility that the sensitivity is low and far from dangerous’
One of the most ‘holy cow’ moments for me in climate science was realizing that sensitivity studies already assume ALL net warming is manmade – and not since 1979 or 1950, but since thermometer records started!
Now, observational / energy budget studies (Otto, Lewis, etc) do make an allowance for natural variability, usually by taking into account the Atlantic multidecade oscillation. This means that if you’re going to compare a beginning period with an end period (decades) you have to pick them in the same phase of the AMO, meaning they must be 60-70 years apart. I think they also take into account some (minimal) solar forcing and choose beginning-end periods with little volcano activity. But that’s it – in the end they take one decade at the beginning, another at the end, and assume any temperature increase has been due to man.
And still they end up with sensitivity of 1.5ºC or something like that, i.e. at the very bottom of the IPCC range.
The problem with natural variability is that the most obvious natural factor affecting temperature, clouds, is very poorly understood. AFAIK there still isn’t a good dataset on exactly how much of the planet is covered by clouds (and of what kind) at any moment, so good luck modelling that for the XIX century. Since natural changes in cloud cover cannot be quantified, the IPCC and climate scientists in general assume they don’t exert any forcing, i.e. their effect is the same now as in 1970 as in 1870. (Ironically, the IPCC does try to estimate effects of man-made aerosols on clouds – though these are minimal, something like an additional 0.5w/m2 vs 70w/m2 for clouds as a whole).
Anyway, what I want to say is that the IPCC’s iconic statement, which many have taken as justifying climate action, is in fact extremely conservative. Even studies assuming far more end up with low sensitivity estimates.
Lindzen also says:
‘Indeed, the warming since the end of the little ice age (around 1800) of about 1C has been accompanied by improvements in virtually all measures of human welfare. Why another 1C should be considered planet threatening is rarely explained.’
I have nothing more to say. Except, that Lindzen overplayed his hand with the ‘planet-threatening’ thing, which is something of a strawman as almost no one actually says that (maybe John Kerry). But yeah, why another degree would bring catastrophe remains an unanswered question…
…and with the news coming from Antarctica, a catastrophist answer is getting more and more untenable.

John Leggett
Reply to  Alberto Zaragoza Comendador
December 26, 2015 8:08 am

Also Al Gore, Michael E. Mann, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Tim Osborn, Mike Hulme, B Obama.

Reply to  John Leggett
December 27, 2015 5:20 am

Also, nearly every political leader in socialist and other backwards countries around the world plus God’s representative on earth all push CAGW.

Menicholas
Reply to  Alberto Zaragoza Comendador
December 26, 2015 10:04 am

“Except, that Lindzen overplayed his hand with the ‘planet-threatening’ thing, which is something of a strawman as almost no one actually says that (maybe John Kerry). ”
Hogwash.
This claim is made all the time by posers large and small.
You must not be paying very much attention, sir, if you honestly believe this to be the case.
Lindzen’s entire essay was very much of an understatement.

Reply to  Menicholas
December 27, 2015 5:21 am

+100

rogerknights
Reply to  Menicholas
December 27, 2015 5:22 pm

Correct. “Planet-threatening” is implied by “We’re trying to save the planet,” etc.

willb01
Reply to  Alberto Zaragoza Comendador
December 26, 2015 11:42 am

Besides clouds, ocean currents comprise another obvious natural factor that seems poorly accounted for. The world ocean covers 71% of the Earth’s surface, has a huge thermal capacity (compared to the atmosphere or ground), and has an average temperature somewhere south of 4C. The only thing protecting us from this cold temperature is a relatively thin layer of water, warmed by the sun, that is constantly being removed by circulating ocean currents and tidal mixing.
The onset of the Younger Dryas, a rather severe climate change event, is thought to have been caused by a decline in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. In our present-day climate conditions, how much change might be needed in ocean current circulation patterns and/or rates to induce a comparatively smaller 1C change in global temperature?

Reply to  willb01
December 26, 2015 1:57 pm

The problem with the oceans as a positive forcing is, well, where is the heat coming from? Because we know for sure that they are accumulating heat.
Now, the oceans inducing some change in clouds which in turn causes positive forcing, that sounds more likely.
I literally just read about Younger Dryas in this article. Can’t find anything on what oceans temps were doing, though.

richard verney
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 2:47 am

I frequently make this point when it is claimed that the GHE adds 33degC to the planet’s temperature.
it is incorrect to assess the planet’s temperature based upon a very thin layer of SST. It is only by chance that we have the SST that we currently see. Come back in a different period, and the SST would be very different, and that would be so not because of any significant difference in the incoming radiative budget..
We would not have ice ages if the oceans were uniformly as warm as the SST. It is the low average temperature of the oceans that comes back to bite when ice ages begin to onset.

Thomas
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 7:03 am

+10
“… has an average temperature somewhere south of 4C. The only thing protecting us from this cold temperature is a relatively thin layer of water, warmed by the sun, that is constantly being removed …”
I do not think that most people appreciate the gravity of that observation.
Consider Lake Superior or Lake Baikal as a temperature analog to the ocean. Both lakes have bottoms that extend well below sea level with deep water temperatures just below 4C. I have gone swimming in Lake Superior in August when the thin top layers have finally warmed to 70F/21C in the shallow bays of the Apostle Islands, and I can tell you that any wind-producing passing summer storm will churn the water enough to destroy the thin layer of warm water that makes swimming possible. On most days, if you stop swimming and stand in the shallows, you toes will notice the cold lurking just feet below the surface. The bottoms of these lakes are always just below 4C because that is the temperature at which water reaches maximum density, and that cold water sinks to the bottom and stays there. Water is such a poor conductor of heat that not even the surface of the earth, presumably 55C just below the lakes, can warm the water. Lake Baikal is so deep and narrow that it actually cools the earth’s crust around the lake bottom (see link below).
http://www.bww.irk.ru/baikalwater/temperature.html
So if cold water (4C) sinks to the bottom, and water in general is a poor conductor of heat, and the deepest waters actually cool the earth’s crust, how can there be ANY heat hiding in the deep oceans?

RichardLH
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 7:29 am

OK, so sea water is slightly different to fresh water but….
The energy can be hiding in the oceans as global rotational energy rather than heat. That’s just where they think to look.

willb01
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 9:26 am

In comparing the temperatures of Lake Superior and Lake Baikal to that of the ocean, there are a couple of differences to consider:
– The average yearly surface temperatures of those two lakes are very cold compared to the average yearly surface temperature of the Earth as a whole.
– The lakes don’t have an equivalent to the ocean’s meridional overturning circulation.

willb01
Reply to  Alberto Zaragoza Comendador
December 26, 2015 4:29 pm

Regardless of the cause of the “forcing”, there is always only one source for the heat – the sun. And I don’t think it’s surprising at all that the oceans are accumulating heat. With the average ocean temperature at less than 4C and the average global surface temperature at 16C, I think it’s quite probable that the oceans have been gradually gaining heat since the beginning of the Holocene.
What could contribute to a positive ocean “forcing”? One possibility (purely speculative) – if the rate of ocean current circulation slowed a bit then the surface waters would have a chance to accumulate more energy from the sun before circulating down to the abyssal plain. More accumulated energy in the surface waters = higher surface temperature.

richard verney
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 2:50 am

What we should be asking is why is the ocean so cold if the ocean has been receiving solar + DWLWIR for approximately 4.5 billion years, and if DWLWIR is effectively mixed into and warms the oceans.
If Solar + DWLWIR is effectively sequestered to depth, then the oceans should be a lot lot warmer after all this time.

willb01
Reply to  willb01
December 27, 2015 6:48 am

The reason the average ocean temperature is 4C is because 4C is likely close to the Earth’s average surface temperature during the Quaternary period. The Earth is now in an ice age but thankfully for us we are presently living during a (relatively brief) interglacial, when surface temperatures are substantially warmer than normal.
The oceans themselves would have been much warmer during the Eocene (50 million years ago). It has probably taken them millions of years to cool to their present temperature.

Paul of Alexandria
Reply to  willb01
December 29, 2015 8:40 pm

Actually. Two sources: the sun and the radio-generated internal heat of the Earth, via volcanic vents (as described in another recent WUWT article). The last probably has about as much effect on oceanic temperatures as the first.
The answer to Mr Verney below is simple. During the night, any part of the ocean that isn’t shielded by clouds is staring into the 4K background of space, the ultimate heat sink. The whole AGW debate boils down to the atmospheric and ocean surface temperature (including effects leading to cloud formation) at which the energy lost by blackbody radiation from the Earth equals the energy received from the Sun + that due to the Earth’s internal heat leaking through the crust.

ECK
Reply to  Alberto Zaragoza Comendador
December 27, 2015 6:12 pm

“maybe John Kerry”. I’m not sure he’s an actual person, but a holograph. No real human could be that obtuse.

waster
December 26, 2015 7:32 am

Why can’t anybody define climate change?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  waster
December 26, 2015 8:00 am

Because they don’t want to. They know the common person will latch onto a general phrase such “climate change”, adopt it and spew it around at all their social gatherings as a pretense to being informed on matters of great importance. As long as that continues the politicians will use it to stick more control over us under the premise that it is the people’s will being done. Then the politicians will continue to fund climate change using our dollars and the circle becomes complete. No sense upsetting the apple cart or the gravy train.

Fly over Bob
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 10:35 am

Your use of the term “Common Person” is without meaning. Historically the use of the word COMMON in a social setting referred to someone in an inferior status, as in common thief, as opposed to Bernie Madoff. My experience with the term “Climate Change,” understood as caused by human activity, was usually stated by college students or graduates. The people I know that work with there hands and minds to make and fix things know full well what the Climate Quacks are pushing with Climate Change. Spend some time with mechanics and carpenters et al gives insight into what is real.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 3:30 pm

re: Fly over Bob December 26, 2015 at 10:35 am
As a sales person I come in contact with many, many different types of people. Most of them, especially when in a social setting, will mention “climate change” or “global warming” or such without any idea of the science of climate or what the issues are. They simply parrot what they see or read on the internet or TV. These are retail persons. cashiers, office persons, secretaries, business assistants, administrators, etc. Most have regular jobs, live a modest life and worry about their income month to month. These “common people” as I referred to them are the everyday people that are essential in making the world go round. But they are not the so called skilled laborers. They do not have a technical type mind which is why they tend to defer to what they read or see with little effort to dig deeper. They are the majority who tend to believe the consensus and express that in their votes. The politicians know this so they play them and we end up getting what we have now.

Aphan
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 4:25 pm

“As a sales person I come in contact with many, many different types of people. Most of them, especially when in a social setting, will mention “climate change” or “global warming” or such without any idea of the science of climate or what the issues are. They simply parrot what they see or read on the internet or TV. These are retail persons. cashiers, office persons, secretaries, business assistants, administrators, etc. Most have regular jobs, live a modest life and worry about their income month to month. These “common people” as I referred to them are the everyday people that are essential in making the world go round. But they are not the so called skilled laborers. They do not have a technical type mind which is why they tend to defer to what they read or see with little effort to dig deeper. They are the majority who tend to believe the consensus and express that in their votes. The politicians know this so they play them and we end up getting what we have now.”
Wow. The number of generalizations in that paragraph is stunning. That MOST of the people you come into contact represent an accurate aggregate of the whole of all those people. That all of the people you meet who mention “climate change” or “global warming” in a social situation do so “without any idea of the science of climate or what the issues are”-unless of course you have made the time to speak to each and every one of them personally and have empirical evidence that NONE of them have any idea…in which case, I apologize for questioning. That “common people”, unlike “skilled laborers” cannot/do not have “technical type minds” and defer to what they read or see with little effort. Seriously? Some of the smartest people I know never went to college, or aren’t even in the work force. The “majority” of people DO NOT BELIEVE the consensus, according to recent polls, and how a candidate feels about “climate change” is only ONE of many things people take into consideration when voting. In fact, only 40% of Americans vote in the midterm elections, and roughly 50-60% in the Presidential ones. A lot of people do not vote because they feel it makes no difference, so you’re assumptions about all those “common people” are just that…your personal assumptions.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 4:49 pm

+1 though I’d add that even if they had a technical mind they don’t the time nor inclination to figure out what lies behind the curtain.
as a salesman u know that if a scientist says it many people suspend doubt.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 7:25 pm

re: Aphan December 26, 2015 at 4:25 pm
Yes, Alphan as a real estate sales person my job, about 90% of what I do, is to talk to people. I spend the majority of my days out and about talking to people. I go to Chamber of Commerce events and talk to people. I go to happy hours and talk to people. I go to any gathering I can attend and talk to people. Now, in my travels I hear conversations about climate change. These are people from every walk of life, all ages, all income levels, all levels of education, all different skills. I listen to what they are saying and if I can, I calmly interject myself into the conversation. I can tell you that in almost all of those conversations most of the people have no idea what they are talking about. They are just parroting what they heard on the news. My favorite question to ask is “Do you know what percent of the atmosphere is made up of CO2”. No one, not one in three years, has been close to being correct. Most people say about 20%. So yes, I speak to many, many people about their climate change views. So I will stand by my generalizations. After all, we all form out judgements by out personal experiences. These are some of mine.

rogerknights
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 27, 2015 5:54 pm

“Historically the use of the word COMMON in a social setting referred to someone in an inferior status . . .”
That was more true in Britain than here. In the US, the term, “the common man” has a neutral (means “average”) or positive connotation.

“Jefferson was in the process of adoring the common man,”
“The wave which he started, the upsurge of the common man, would never disappear, but it would undulate,”
—Howard Fast, “Citizen Tom Paine”
“The “‘plain folks'” or “common man” approach attempts to convince the audience that the propagandist’s positions reflect the common sense of the people. It is designed to win the confidence of the audience . . . .A common example of this type of propaganda is a political figure, usually running for a placement, in a backyard or shop doing daily routine things. This image appeals to the common person.”
—http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propaganda_techniques

Reply to  waster
December 26, 2015 8:26 am

My Alerts.
Monumental Earth Changes.
This Changes Everything.
This one-sided growth of the inner core deforming crust inside,changes the shape of the Earth’s shape depends Earth’s. Out is albedo http://go.nature.com/w6iks3 Big Under Ground Alteration Around the World http://ln.poleshift.ning.com/p/s9JyK Inexplicable Giant Sinkholes Opening Worldwide http://wp.me/P2HHA2-P4
Precession Earth Matters://Earth’s tilt brings big changes during seasons of the year http://shar.es/1fFoSQ New research shows Earth’s tilt influences climate change http://wp.me/p7y41
Orbit http://wp.me/p7y41-vDW
Climate Changes is a measure of the Speed and one of the flags katastrofy.

BallBounces
December 26, 2015 7:32 am

Great article!

December 26, 2015 7:41 am

In all conditioned phenomena – change is inevitable. The cult that has risen to thwart this law of the universe are the true ‘deniers’/’skeptics’. Obvious to those familiar with past climate. A simple and frequent post of the Vostok data is ample evidence alone to undermine the propaganda used to move the masses. Is reveals nothing but change and the maximums and minimums we can and should expect. Moreover, it reveals the peril that will follow in the inevitable cooling and subsequent crop failures – like those witnessed in the ‘Little Ice Age’. Let them know they should rejoice each time they hear – “it has warmed” or “not cooled.” CO2 and warmth bring food, and food brings life. Keep it simple. They are not even aware that they are made of CO2 – as is all life on earth.

Reply to  Roy Hutchinson
December 26, 2015 11:13 am

They are not even aware that they are made of CO2 – as is all life on earth.

In addition, carbon is the fourth most common chemical element in the Milky Way (4600 ppm), only the fifteenth on Earth (760 ppm) and, yet, the second in the human body (18%). What’s the point of the carbon footprint?

iseeit
December 26, 2015 7:44 am

Climate ‘science’ is largely a political project.
Just another brick in the wall.

Barbara
December 26, 2015 7:51 am

The academic institutions in the Boston area rake in big bucks from the climate agenda and have plenty of influence political and other on the residents of that area. Climate agenda is a bread and butter issue for these people.

LINER011
Reply to  Barbara
December 26, 2015 5:37 pm

Since the sceptics are always accused of taking money from the Koch Bros, or from Big Oil, Professor Dyson should find out the amount of ‘climate change’ government grants given to MIT over the past 25 years

Jim G1
December 26, 2015 7:52 am

Dr. Lindzen,
“The IPCC does not claim that climate change is mostly due to human activities generally; it restricts itself to the period since about 1970, which was the end of the most recent cooling period (a period which gave rise to global cooling concerns). ”
I recall more than a couple presentations by Dr. Iben Browning in the early to mid 80’s where the concern was still global cooling. I believe the disaster mongers did not get on the global warming train until somewhat later than you indicate and the main impetus, to me, seems to be the redistribution of wealth to themselves.
Jim G, CIT 1970

Reply to  Jim G1
December 26, 2015 8:24 am

The AGW crowd goes where the political money leads them. There is little science where the meal ticket goes.

Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 8:00 am

Dr. Lindzen,

That climate change is harmful is, of course, the basis for the existence of the IPCC, and is an intrinsic source of regrettable bias.

I infer from this that you therefore believe that climate change is not harmful. One wonders how you arrived at this conclusion, especially given …

Dyson, further notes that the ice ages were major examples of climate change that we don’t fully understand, and that lacking this understanding suggests that we don’t really understand climate change. As another example of something that we don’t understand, he cites the potential role of the sun.

… all that you claim we don’t understand about how climate works.

They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades.

I would think that dramatic change requires a dramatic driver. So, if this is not the most dramatic driver …
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/graphics/global.total.jpg
… what is it?

Dyson then goes on to praise environmentalism in general, to approve of the increasing wealth of China and India, and their understandable unwillingness to forego this, and finally notes the well-known fact that CO2 is plant food whose increase has been associated with extraordinarily valuable increases in agricultural productivity.

Bit of an incomplete analysis. One of several other factors to consider:comment image
http://image.slidesharecdn.com/pppp-140207172858-phpapp02/95/modern-agricultural-practices-6-638.jpg

With respect to the role of CO2 as plant food, the letter writers appeal, without justification, to other limiting factors, ignoring that the greatest limiting factor, water, is alleviated with elevated levels of CO2.

And yet, water is still the greatest limiting factor.

They also ignore literally hundreds of observational studies.

How many of those hundred observational studies occurred in literally controlled conditions vs. in open fields where, say, noxious weed species also benefitted from the increased levels of CO2?

Mason
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 8:37 am

Hello Brandon,
can you please go into further detail on exactly how your carbon graph relates to CO2 in the atmosphere, heck I can’t recall ever getting caught in a rain of liquid CO2, cement, or better yet diamonds! And with that explanation can you please provide a little more insight as to how carbon is a “dramatic driver” of global temperature, especially since your carbon graph is off by 30-50 thousand years in comparison to the “Dansgard-Oeschger” events?

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 12:02 pm

Mason,

can you please go into further detail on exactly how your carbon graph relates to CO2 in the atmosphere …

comment image

And with that explanation can you please provide a little more insight as to how carbon is a “dramatic driver” of global temperature, especially since your carbon graph is off by 30-50 thousand years in comparison to the “Dansgard-Oeschger” events?

Requoting Dr. Lindzen: They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades.

Mason
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 12:53 pm

Thanks Brandon,
you’ve shown how methane (gas) is converted into CO2 in the atmosphere, but your graph shows that over 2/3 of the carbon (I assume the graph shows carbon produced by humans) is in solid and liquid form. So please explain the mechanism which puts solid and liquid carbon into the atmosphere?

Aphan
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 1:32 pm

Brandon, your graph shows “Metric Tons of Carbon” for which the chemical element’s symbol is C. When asked “How does your “carbon” graph, relate to CO2 in the atmosphere”? you posted the chemical formula
CH4+202—–> Co2 + 2H20. Not only is CH4 = METHANE, but your graph doesn’t mention amounts of methane or oxygen or water or CO2 in the atmosphere….so…?
BG-“I would think that dramatic change requires a dramatic driver. So, if this is not the most dramatic driver (metric tons of Carbon)…what is it?”
If whatever your graph is talking about IS some kind of “dramatic driver”, when why hasn’t it driven any dramatic changes since 1750? It certainly hasn’t driven a Dansgard-Oeschger or Younger Dryas type change in a decade or less. Maybe there’s just a MORE dramatic driver at work overwhelming the less dramatic driver you seem to be concerned with.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 2:17 pm

Mason,

you’ve shown how methane (gas) is converted into CO2 in the atmosphere, but your graph shows that over 2/3 of the carbon (I assume the graph shows carbon produced by humans) is in solid and liquid form.

See below.
Aphan,

Brandon, your graph shows “Metric Tons of Carbon” for which the chemical element’s symbol is C. When asked “How does your “carbon” graph, relate to CO2 in the atmosphere”? you posted the chemical formula CH4+202—–> Co2 + 2H20. Not only is CH4 = METHANE, but your graph doesn’t mention amounts of methane or oxygen or water or CO2 in the atmosphere….so…?

http://www.bpc.edu/mathscience/chemistry/images/periodic_table_of_elements.jpg
Below the symbol for each element is a number representing: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_mass
The rest is just arithmetic.

If whatever your graph is talking about IS some kind of “dramatic driver”, when why hasn’t it driven any dramatic changes since 1750? It certainly hasn’t driven a Dansgard-Oeschger or Younger Dryas type change in a decade or less.

Since Dr. Lindzen is the one who introduced the word “dramatic” to this discussion, your question is perhaps best directed to him about what he does and does not consider “dramatic”.

Maybe there’s just a MORE dramatic driver at work overwhelming the less dramatic driver you seem to be concerned with.

Since Dr. Lindzen is talking Dansgaard-Oeschge-level drama [1], it sure seems to me that the cause would be difficult to miss. That’s pretty much the point in me asking him his thoughts on the cause(s).
—————
Wikipedia quantifies the level of “drama” thusly: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dansgaard%E2%80%93Oeschger_event
In the Northern Hemisphere, they take the form of rapid warming episodes, typically in a matter of decades, each followed by gradual cooling over a longer period. For example, about 11,500 years ago, averaged annual temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet warmed by around 8 °C over 40 years, in three steps of five years (see,[3] Stewart, chapter 13), where a 5 °C change over 30–40 years is more common.

Aphan
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 3:07 pm

BG- Said “Since Dr. Lindzen is the one who introduced the word “dramatic” to this discussion, your question is perhaps best directed to him about what he does and does not consider “dramatic”.”
Here’s the context of Dr. Lindzen’s use of dramatic-
“As concerns ice ages, the MIT professors argue that they took thousands of years, allowing humans to adapt. They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades.”
Seems obvious to me that the MIT professors think that rapid/dramatic changes take thousands of years, when in fact, evidence suggests that rapid/dramatic changes happen much, MUCH faster.
BG-“Since Dr. Lindzen is talking Dansgaard-Oeschge-level drama [1], it sure seems to me that the cause would be difficult to miss. That’s pretty much the point in me asking him his thoughts on the cause(s).”
Which cause would be difficult to miss? Since it’s never been established that D-O events all have the same trigger, and the global climate changes that they have triggered have occurred in VERY “short” time frames geologically speaking (some in as little as a decade) what point were you trying to make with a chart that seems to be showing large “Carbon” increases over a 250+ year period with NO significant global climate changes?

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 26, 2015 5:02 pm

Aphan,

Seems obvious to me that the MIT professors think that rapid/dramatic changes take thousands of years, when in fact, evidence suggests that rapid/dramatic changes happen much, MUCH faster.

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/349/6248/602.short
Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover
The mechanisms of Late Pleistocene megafauna extinctions remain fiercely contested, with human impact or climate change cited as principal drivers. We compared ancient DNA and radiocarbon data from 31 detailed time series of regional megafaunal extinctions and replacements over the past 56,000 years with standard and new combined records of Northern Hemisphere climate in the Late Pleistocene. Unexpectedly, rapid climate changes associated with interstadial warming events are strongly associated with the regional replacement or extinction of major genetic clades or species of megafauna. The presence of many cryptic biotic transitions before the Pleistocene/Holocene boundary revealed by ancient DNA confirms the importance of climate change in megafaunal population extinctions and suggests that metapopulation structures necessary to survive such repeated and rapid climatic shifts were susceptible to human impacts.

Maybe those fancy MIT profs. know more than you think.

Which cause would be difficult to miss?

Pick one. Any event(s) big enough to cause D-O-level drama in surface temps seems unlikely to go unnoticed by modern measuring equipment.

Since it’s never been established that D-O events all have the same trigger, and the global climate changes that they have triggered have occurred in VERY “short” time frames geologically speaking (some in as little as a decade) what point were you trying to make with a chart that seems to be showing large “Carbon” increases over a 250+ year period with NO significant global climate changes?

I don’t understand why D-O events would require the same trigger for any of them to be noticed by modern observers should one be occurring at present.
Was my question to Dr. Lindzen not clear when I first asked it? I would think that dramatic change requires a dramatic driver. So, if [fossil fuel use] is not the most dramatic driver … what is it?
As for geological time frames, 150 years is still peanuts. Glaciation cycles over tens of thousands of years are not associated with mass extinctions to the same extent that D-O events and other instances of near-instantaneous climate disruptions are. Typically larger, slower reproducing species are more vulnerable than smaller, rapidly reproducing species.
Maybe, just maybe, our effect on the biosphere will be gradual enough for the species we depend on for health and happiness will be able to cope. But again, in keeping with the theme of the head post, there is much we don’t understand about climate … AND ecology. It amazes me (but not really) that Dr. Lindzen would follow up his “it’s alll soooo impenetrably complex and uncertain” argument with appeals to elementary biology along the lines of “CO2 is plant food”, and that the hard-core skeptics in this forum aren’t all over him for trying to have it both ways.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 5:48 pm

BG-“I would think that dramatic change requires a dramatic driver. So, if [fossil fuel use] is not the most dramatic driver … what is it?”
Fossil fuel use has not caused a dramatic change as far as YOU defined “dramatic change” as being of D-O impact. No change, no driver.
“As for geological time frames, 150 years is still peanuts. Glaciation cycles over tens of thousands of years are not associated with mass extinctions to the same extent that D-O events and other instances of near-instantaneous climate disruptions are. ”
Dr Lindzen doesn’t say the MIT professors don’t understand ice ages, nor does he claim they are wrong about ice age glaciation cycles. He brings up quote “episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods”. So you trying to insinuate that either he, or I, are equating the two is erroneous. It is idiotic to debate about the cause of any future D-O event until one actually occurs.
BG- “Dr. Lindzen would follow up his “it’s alll soooo impenetrably complex and uncertain” argument with appeals to elementary biology along the lines of “CO2 is plant food”, and that the hard-core skeptics in this forum aren’t all over him for trying to have it both ways.”
That he is trying to have it both ways IS YOUR OPINION. He’s not saying “since Co2 is plant food…it cant possibly ever be bad”. If he actually HAD (and you admitted that he did not make that claim) we’d be all over him for it. But he didn’t. However, YOU keep trying to insinuate that he MEANT that, without any real evidence to support your idiotic, and illogical claim, and so YOU became the target. YOU keep attempting to have it both ways by BY your own ADMISSION. You want to claim that Dr Lindzen is a moron for saying “We don’t know…so its no big deal” while actually CLAIMING “We don’t know…so it is a big deal. You can only make assumptions about Dr. Lindzen meant, but we can all read your own words!
You’re either deliberately annoying or oblivious.

Mason
Reply to  Mason
December 27, 2015 1:28 pm

Gee Brandon, nice periodic table, but it isn’t quite as nice as your dodge on my and Aphan’s questions. If you really believe all the carbon in your graph ends up as CO2 in the atmosphere, then you need to explain the chemical reactions that lead to it becoming CO2 in the atmosphere. Showing a periodic table and then saying it is just arithmetic demonstrates a lack of understanding of basic chemistry. So if you don’t understand basic chemistry how can I possibly believe you know anything about CAGW/Climate Change/whatever-crazy-name-it-will-be-next, oh that’s right it isn’t about actual science and facts, it’s more like a religious dogma!
Regards

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 27, 2015 5:18 pm

Aphan,

Fossil fuel use has not caused a dramatic change as far as YOU defined “dramatic change” as being of D-O impact.

You have seriously selective reading skills. That’s Dr. Lindzen’s “definition” not mine. One more time for the slow half of the class, here is his direct quote:
They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades.
See the word in bold text above? It’s: dramatic. Those words were written by Dr. Lindzen, not me.

Dr Lindzen doesn’t say the MIT professors don’t understand ice ages, nor does he claim they are wrong about ice age glaciation cycles.

I didn’t say that Dr. Lindzen said any of those things. What I wrote (which you quoted) was: As for geological time frames, 150 years is still peanuts. Glaciation cycles over tens of thousands of years are not associated with mass extinctions to the same extent that D-O events and other instances of near-instantaneous climate disruptions are.

He brings up quote “episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods”.

Nice to see that your ability to do proper attribution has returned.

So you trying to insinuate that either he, or I, are equating the two is erroneous.

Um, no. Feel free to guess again, or conversely …. ask me for clarification.

It is idiotic to debate about the cause of any future D-O event until one actually occurs.

I beg to differ. See, one premise of Dr. Lindzen’s essay is that we don’t know much about climate. Calling it idiotic to debate about the cause of past or putative future D-O events is the surest way I know to remain in perpetual ignorance.

That he is trying to have it both ways IS YOUR OPINION.

Duh. Do you have something against me having and/or expressing my opinion?

He’s not saying “since Co2 is plant food…it cant possibly ever be bad”. If he actually HAD (and you admitted that he did not make that claim) we’d be all over him for it.

As I’ve said previously, I think (I believe) that he knows his audience. As I’ve done previously, I cite dbstealey:
Here’s a good example of the truth: the rise in CO2 is harmless. It is not the cause of Arctic ice fluctuations or any of the other ‘carbon’ scares. Furthermore, the truth is that the added CO2 has caused increased agricultural productivity around the globe, which directly affects the world’s poorest who subsist on less than $2 a day.
If the alarmist contingent got its way and reduced CO2 to 350 ppm or less, the world’s poorest would get whacked hard, suffering malnutrition and starvation as food costs would necessarily rise.
The totally cost-free and very effective natural fertilization by atmospheric CO2 keeps food costs down; a savings that directly benefits those routinely subsisting on the edge of starvation.
Therefore, a corollary truth is that those who push for lower CO2 levels are complicit in what their proposal would cause: sickness and death. That is another truth.

I disagree with the man about many — well no, most — things, but I do admire his eloquence and in this case his directness. There’s no doubt in my mind what he actually thinks, and especially in this case, why he thinks it.

However, YOU keep trying to insinuate that he MEANT that, without any real evidence to support your idiotic, and illogical claim, and so YOU became the target. YOU keep attempting to have it both ways by BY your own ADMISSION. You want to claim that Dr Lindzen is a moron for saying “We don’t know…so its no big deal” while actually CLAIMING “We don’t know…so it is a big deal. You can only make assumptions about Dr. Lindzen meant, but we can all read your own words!

It’s nice to know that it’s ok for you to read between the lines, but not ok for me to do it.

You’re either deliberately annoying or oblivious.

Is it that you either don’t understand the fallacy of false dichotomy, or you simply don’t care to avoid using them? I wouldn’t want to assume either way.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 7:32 pm

Gates,
You say you know what I mean when I write something. Since you follow enough of my comments to know, you also know that I’ve often said I don’t predict the future. I can’t; it’s the future. Almost all the climate predictions are made by the alarmist crowd, from accelerating sea level rise, to ocean acidification, to disappearing Arctic ice, to Micronesia being drowned, to… well, to everything bad. Every alarmist prediction has failed, but that doesn’t stop them from continuing to falsely yell “Fire!” in a crowded theater.
So when I wrote that the rise in CO2 has been beneficial, my apologies for not being clearer. The rise in CO2 has been an unmitigated benefit with no global damage or harm found. (If that’s wrong, then identify the harm caused by the rise in human-emitted CO2.)
I stand by that view, and so far no one has ever identified any global harm from the rise in CO2 (from about 3 parts in 10,000, to only 4 parts in 10,000. Yikes. How frightening.)
Therefore, we can confidently say that the rise in CO2 is “harmless”. I understand that you fervently wish it were otherwise. But it’s not. The climate alarmist crowd was flat wrong. What keeps the argument going incessantly is that they won’t admit they were wrong. If they acknowledged it then we could all move on to the next step; getting China, India, Russia, and a hundred smaller countries to reduce their particulate and other pollution to U.S. levels.
But that isn’t happening, and the reason is that the alarmist gang won’t swallow their stupid pride and admit what everyone knows: that all the predictions of runaway global warming and climate catastrophe from human CO2 were WRONG.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 27, 2015 5:33 pm

Mason,

Gee Brandon, nice periodic table, but it isn’t quite as nice as your dodge on my and Aphan’s questions.

Thanks, it’s nice to be appreciated.

If you really believe all the carbon in your graph ends up as CO2 in the atmosphere, then you need to explain the chemical reactions that lead to it becoming CO2 in the atmosphere.

Oh, well that’s easy, I don’t believe it all ends up as CO2 in the atmosphere.
Showing a periodic table and then saying it is just arithmetic demonstrates a lack of understanding of basic chemistry.
My chem professors would disagree with you.
You know what a zeroth-order approximation is, don’t you?

So if you don’t understand basic chemistry how can I possibly believe you know anything about CAGW/Climate Change/whatever-crazy-name-it-will-be-next, oh that’s right it isn’t about actual science and facts, it’s more like a religious dogma!

ROFL, if you’re relying on me to learn about (C)AGW/CC you’re Doing it Wrong. Try the primary literature instead.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mason
December 28, 2015 7:11 pm

Mason,

Zeroth-order approximations, really? Anyone using approximations (best guess) in chemistry at university or high-school would not have passed when I was studying.

That’s probably because high school and undergrad chemistry problems are designed to be readily solvable by more exact means. In real world applications like atmospheric chemistry / carbon cycle geology — which is post-doctoral level work — zeroth-order approximations help laymen such as myself get a feel for how things work without having to get a PhD in the process.
Besides, recalling that your original question to me on this subthread …
can you please go into further detail on exactly how your carbon graph relates to CO2 in the atmosphere
… didn’t call for detailed calculations, I haven’t been exactly motivated to break out the mainframe and start crunching numbers. I mean really, if you’re going to keep moving the goalpost on me, it seems only fair that you be the one to also kick the ball.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 8:38 am

Brandon Gates,
Regarding “dramatic drivers,” what do you know about CO2? Did you know that CO2 absorbs virtually 100% of 15-micron IR, including the so-called blanket-blank “shoulders,” within 3 meters of the Earth’s surface? Did you know that doubling the CO2 to 800 ppm would lower this to maybe 2 meters? Did you know that radiating CO2 at the so-called Top of Atmosphere cannot heat the surface, as this radiation is thermalized miles above the surface?
Dramatic? If you say so…

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 26, 2015 12:03 pm

Michael Moon,

Did you know that CO2 absorbs virtually 100% of 15-micron IR, including the so-called blanket-blank “shoulders,” within 3 meters of the Earth’s surface?

The number I usually see is 10 meters, but what’s a few meters among friends?

Did you know that doubling the CO2 to 800 ppm would lower this to maybe 2 meters?

It would be nice if you showed your work, but for sake of argument I can run with that figure.

Did you know that radiating CO2 at the so-called Top of Atmosphere cannot heat the surface, as this radiation is thermalized miles above the surface?

You’ve confused the change in net radiative forcing (the difference between ingoing and outgoing flux) as calculated at TOA with the mechanics how IR-active molecules affect flux balance at every level of the atmosphere wherein they are present. Using the numbers you provide above, 100% of the radiation emitted from the surface is thermalized at 3 m above the surface at 400 ppmv CO2, 2 m at 800 ppmv.
Association football players call what you have just done an “own goal”.

Dramatic? If you say so…

Requoting Dr. Lindzen: They ignore the Dansgard-Oeschger events (episodes of dramatic change within glacial periods) which involved major changes in decades as well as the onset of the Younger Dryas (where glaciation suddenly reoccurred after the initial deglaciation of the last major glaciation) that also involved major changes setting on in decades.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 26, 2015 6:04 pm

Brandon,
“You’ve confused the change in net radiative forcing (the difference between ingoing and outgoing flux) as calculated at TOA with the mechanics how IR-active molecules affect flux balance at every level of the atmosphere wherein they are present. Using the numbers you provide above, 100% of the radiation emitted from the surface is thermalized at 3 m above the surface at 400 ppmv CO2, 2 m at 800 ppmv.”
Can you explain how IR-active molecules affect flux balance at middle levels when they emit equally in all directions? Absorptions will be thermalized within a few meters in any direction.

Reply to  Michael Moon
December 27, 2015 12:29 pm

Brandon Gates,
Maybe a little thick? Think this through: yes right now 100% thermalizes at 3 meters, the real Greenhouse Effect. What important change would come about from moving this one meter closer to the surface? You made my point for me…

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 27, 2015 4:28 pm

Chic Bowdrie,

Can you explain how IR-active molecules affect flux balance at middle levels when they emit equally in all directions?

They emit equally in all directions, but generally speaking don’t receive equally from all directions due to lapse rate.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 27, 2015 9:32 pm

Brandon,
“They emit equally in all directions, but generally speaking don’t receive equally from all directions due to lapse rate.”
The differences in absorption from up or down are miniscule if you consider mean free path lengths on the order of meters. As the atmosphere thins, these differences become more meaningful, but net radiation is always upward. Meanwhile convection moves the bulk of the energy up. CO2 won’t change that.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 28, 2015 2:55 pm

Michael Moon,

Think this through: yes right now 100% thermalizes at 3 meters, the real Greenhouse Effect. What important change would come about from moving this one meter closer to the surface?

I have thought it through. There’s another 3 meter layer stacked on top of the first 3 meter layer. That’s a total of 6 meters, yes?
Now we increase CO2 until upwelling LW from the surface is thermalized within 2 meters. Now we have a total of three layers within the first 6 meters of atmosphere, each approximately 2 meters thick.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 28, 2015 3:19 pm

Chic Bowdrie,

The differences in absorption from up or down are miniscule if you consider mean free path lengths on the order of meters.

With the troposphere being ~10 km thick, there are a lot of layers.

As the atmosphere thins, these differences become more meaningful, but net radiation is always upward.

Of course net radiation is outbound on balance, the atmosphere is not a net source of energy.
As the atmosphere thins, the absorption cross-section decreases, which means that our 3 meter layer at the surface becomes 30 meters at some height, then 300, then 3,000, etc.

Meanwhile convection moves the bulk of the energy up.

Photons move faster than bulk masses of atmosphere.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 28, 2015 9:04 pm

“Photons move faster than bulk masses of atmosphere.”
It’s not a race, Brandon. No matter how fast photons travel, they only go as far as the first impact with an IR active molecule. This will be most likely within a few meters unless the air is thin or if the concentration of IR active molecules is low. Because collisions predominate over re-emissions, the photons’ energy will be assimilated in the bulk air. How do the photons that are emitted near the surface at present atmosphere composition get to where the air is thin enough for photons to escape to space?

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 28, 2015 10:23 pm

Chic Bowdrie,

It’s not a race, Brandon.

I know, Chic. However, your argument as I understand it makes it sound so.

No matter how fast photons travel, they only go as far as the first impact with an IR active molecule. This will be most likely within a few meters unless the air is thin or if the concentration of IR active molecules is low.

I’m in agreement with you there, and have been all along.

Because collisions predominate over re-emissions, the photons’ energy will be assimilated in the bulk air.

Yes, as I’ve stated before, 99.9999% of absorbed photons are thermalized, and 6% of collisions cause a photon to be emitted back out. I think we both agree that this is the warming mechanism for at least the ground layer.

How do the photons that are emitted near the surface at present atmosphere composition get to where the air is thin enough for photons to escape to space?

Convection does the bulk of it of course. However, the way you’ve been describing the process makes it sound as if photons are absorbed in the lobby, and don’t pop out until the lift reaches the top floor. Hence the “race”, because I’m telling you that every 6 out 100 collisions are causing photons to hop off the elevator and start the thermalization process all over again.
I’m suggesting you’d do well to think about the implications of that.

Chic Bowdrie
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 29, 2015 5:33 am

That is a great analogy. The way I see it, those six photons get on the next elevator and therefore 94% of the energy is going up by convection. Also increasing CO2 doesn’t slow down the rate at which the energy is going up. That is determined by how much solar insolation gets on at ground level.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Michael Moon
December 29, 2015 9:44 am

Chic Bowdrie,

That is a great analogy. The way I see it, those six photons get on the next elevator and therefore 94% of the energy is going up by convection.

Thanks. Keep in mind that for every up elevator in the world there is one which is going down.

Also increasing CO2 doesn’t slow down the rate at which the energy is going up. That is determined by how much solar insolation gets on at ground level.

161 W/m^2 at ground level is the global average for absorbed solar according to Trenberth and Kiehl. 396 W/m^2 is the global average upwelling LW from the surface according to same. Please explain the difference?

Lancifer
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 8:40 am

Brandon, your pathetic response to Dr. Lindzen reminds me of a line form Ghost Busters II,
“You are like the buzzing of flies to him!”

Menicholas
Reply to  Lancifer
December 26, 2015 10:38 am

Brandon sometimes talks a lot (but thankfully sometimes clams up or goes away) but rarely says anything.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Lancifer
December 26, 2015 12:04 pm

Lancifer,

“You are like the buzzing of flies to him!”

Given that others far better credentialed than I have rebutted his arguments in the past with little to no apparent effect, I don’t doubt it.

urederra
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 8:53 am

Brandon Gates December 26, 2015 at 8:00 am

And yet, water is still the greatest limiting factor.

In some places water is the limiting factor, in other places CO2 is, In others Nitrogen or phosphorus is the limiting factor. Temperature is the limiting factor in other places.
If water is the limiting factor, then we irrigate.
If nitrogen and phosphorus are the limiting factors, then we fertilize.
If CO2 is the limiting factor, then smart, not brainwashed people inject CO2 into greenhouses. The Netherlands is a good example.
If you want to read about the effect of increased CO2 on plant growth you can find thousands of peer reviewed papers at co2science.org including weeds, which are also living beings, like rye or polar bears.
If you want to find a correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels, I recommend a temperature versus CO2 concentration graph, not a CO2 production versus time. BTW, your graph shows that the largest CO2 production ocurred on the XXI century, when the temperature hasn’t changed at all, which falsifies AGW.

Menicholas
Reply to  urederra
December 26, 2015 10:39 am

More CO2 will continue to make water less of a limiting factor.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  urederra
December 26, 2015 12:05 pm

urederra,

In some places water is the limiting factor, in other places CO2 is, In others Nitrogen or phosphorus is the limiting factor. Temperature is the limiting factor in other places.

I’m glad you realize that there are multiple factors to consider.

If water is the limiting factor, then we irrigate.
If nitrogen and phosphorus are the limiting factors, then we fertilize.
If CO2 is the limiting factor, then smart, not brainwashed people inject CO2 into greenhouses.

You forgot: If temperature is the limiting factor, we air-condition.
Smart, not brainwashed, people realize that most agriculture in the world is done in open fields not greenhouses. Something else smart people realize is that as temperature changes, so does evaporation rate … not just from plants but from irrigation ditches and the soil itself. A robust analysis would net such expected effects against the expected water efficiency gains due to elevated CO2. A very robust analysis would consider how changing rainfall patterns would be expected to affect water available for irrigation in places where that is already necessary, and places where crops are less reliant on irrigation.
If we take him at his word, Dr. Lindzen cannot do this because he is claiming that we don’t know much about how climate works. As such, I find it more than a bit odd that he’s apparently confident that elevated CO2 will be a net benefit to agriculture.

If you want to read about the effect of increased CO2 on plant growth you can find thousands of peer reviewed papers at co2science.org including weeds, which are also living beings, like rye or polar bears.

I’ve read several. I have no doubt that pumping CO2 into greenhouses promotes crop growth even when all other required inputs remain fixed.

If you want to find a correlation between temperature and atmospheric CO2 levels, I recommend a temperature versus CO2 concentration graph, not a CO2 production versus time.

Oh sure, I like scatter plots just fine …
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-W0dggL-4e68/VMzoRRfoyHI/AAAAAAAAAUE/yAHA4IAVS4c/s1600/Temp%2Bvs%2BCO2%2BScatterplot%2BEDC%2Bwith%2Bmodern.png
… I made that one about a year ago.

BTW, your graph shows that the largest CO2 production ocurred on the XXI century, when the temperature hasn’t changed at all, which falsifies AGW.

It falsifies the statement that surface temperature is 100% dictated by the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere. Fortunately the people who study this stuff aren’t as completely brain-dead as their detractors bizarrely make them out to be …
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oxFP6mUKqIY/VTWEdb3gJzI/AAAAAAAAAbU/YiRjFJ8Zb8M/s1600/HADCRUT4%2B12%2Bmo%2BMA%2BForcings.png
… so there are plenty of data out there for curious truth-seeking skeptics such as myself to have a go at figuring out what other factors are relevant over periods of months all the way out to decades and centuries.

urederra
Reply to  urederra
December 26, 2015 12:45 pm

Nice try,. but you are not going to mess with me.
Go and poke fun at somebody else.

Latitude
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 9:07 am

noxious weed species also benefitted from the increased levels of CO2?
===
that was really lame

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 9:46 am

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Hugs
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 10:35 am

Because it is an irrelevant, alarmist ‘truth’.
Growth is welcome even if some of it is lost to weeds.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 10:41 am

Thank you…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Menicholas
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 10:43 am

I recall when the CO2 fertilization affect was first noted by realists, several studies were published that tried to make the case that increasing CO2 only benefitted weeds, and not desirable plants.
So i suppose Brandon’s admission can be seen as a sort of progress among the alarmist crowd.

Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 11:41 am

Bluster Brown sez:
Thank you for admiring it is “the truth”
Here’s a good example of the truth: the rise in CO2 is harmless. It is not the cause of Arctic ice fluctuations or any of the other ‘carbon’ scares. Furthermore, the truth is that the added CO2 has caused increased agricultural productivity around the globe, which directly affects the world’s poorest who subsist on less than $2 a day.
If the alarmist contingent got its way and reduced CO2 to 350 ppm or less, the world’s poorest would get whacked hard, suffering malnutrition and starvation as food costs would necessarily rise.
The totally cost-free and very effective natural fertilization by atmospheric CO2 keeps food costs down; a savings that directly benefits those routinely subsisting on the edge of starvation.
Therefore, a corollary truth is that those who push for lower CO2 levels are complicit in what their proposal would cause: sickness and death. That is another truth.
There are many nefarious reasons for that cold-hearted attitude. But the real reasons are hidden behind their Noble Cause Corruption: they pretend that they’re killing people ‘for the good of the planet’, or some such high sounding wonderfulness. They’re good, ethical people, see?
But the truth is, they are not. They are thoroughly evil, reprehensible charlatans, with self-serving schemes floating around under their skewed haloes. Their ‘carbon mitigation’ schemes will not help those most in need. Rather, the truly poor will be even more miserable if the do-gooders ever get their way.
The clueless mouth breathers who watch the Nightly News while nodding their heads alaong with the anchor babe, and the stock video clips of calving glaciers and polar bears apparently stranded on ice floes, are easy pickings for the untruthful clique who are manipulating those lemmings like string puppets.
But that pesky ‘truth’ is causing the climate alarmist clique endless problems. Now the public rates concern over “climate change” as the least important problem the country faces. And as readers here know, the rise in CO2 (AKA: “global warming”, which morphed into “climate change”) has turned out to be completely harmless, and greatly beneficial to the biosphere of which we are a part. It is not a problem at all, but rather, an unexpected benefit.
The truth is that CO2 is harmless and beneficial. The alarmist crowd got everything completely backward, upside down, and wrong. But becauase the truth is not in them (otherwise they would have admitted they were wrong, instead of mendaciously doubling down with their ‘carbon’ scare), they refuse to admit what the rest of us know: their original conjecture was flat wrong. A few degrees more global warmth would be a net benefit. Cold kills. Polar bears are doing just fine. Natural sea level rise is not accelerating. The Arctic ice scare is a completely bogus false alarm over the natural ebb and flow of polar ice. And every other alarming prediction they’ve made has truned out to be untrue. No exceptions. They have been completely wrong from the get-go.
The truth is a beautiful thing to most scientists. Not to the climate alarmist crowd. They hate what the truth is telling them, because it threatens their easy money, and their endless all expenses paid jaunts to holiday venues, and their undeserved rock star treatment by a fawning media (they were dweebs and nerds before the ‘dangerous AGW’ scare came along, and they’re not going to easily give up that unexpected and fun lifestyle, and being ‘Mr. Popularity’ for something they consider unimportant, like telling the truth).
Yes, the truth is a wonderful thing. And it often takes time, but the truth always prevails. Smart alarmists will quietly begin hedging their bets; the smartest ones will admit they were wrong about the ‘carbon’ scare. But the rest will eventually crash and burn, because the internet never forgets. And skeptics won’t let anyone forget.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 11:47 am

DB,
The rise in CO2 isn’t harmless; it’s beneficial.

Reply to  Gloateus Maximus
December 26, 2015 2:07 pm

Hi GM,
I’ve been asking the following question for a few years now:
“Can anyone post verifiable examples of global damage or harm directly attributable to the rise in human emitted CO2?”
So far, no one has ever posted any examples of such harm. Therefore, the rise in CO2 has been ‘harmless’. …QED, no?
But I’m always willing to learn, so if you have any such examples of global harm, please post them.
Keep in mind that the rise in CO2 over the past century and a half has been from about 3 parts in 10,000, to only 4 parts in 10,000. No one could even tell without using sensitive measuring instruments.
The entire “man-made global warming” debate is about the rise in CO2. They have made that into the scare; their climate alarmism couldn’t exist without the CO2 boogeyman.
So I continue to hold the alarmists’ feet to the fire by challenging them to post empirical observations quantifying the harm, if any, caused by the rise in CO2.
And you are right concerning the fact that CO2 is beneficial. It has been up to ≈20X higher in the past, without causing any runaway global warming (or regular old global warming, for that matter).
More CO2 is causing a GREENING of the planet, as observed by satellites, and coroborrated by numerous field experiments. They all show solid evidence of the beneficial effects of more CO2.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 12:09 pm

Latitude,

that was really lame

Surely you’re not arguing that only crop plants benefit from elevated CO2 in the atmosphere?

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 12:18 pm

Dbstealey: ” natural fertilization by atmospheric CO2 ”

Correct…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  BusterBrown@hotmail.com
December 26, 2015 4:09 pm

Observe Bluster’s ‘weeds’ comment for a textbook example of deflection.
Weeds don’t matter. Agricultural productivity matters. And ag productivity is rising in lockstep with rising CO2.
Bluster prefers 3rd World subsistence farmers to starve, or at least suffer from malnutrition. If he didn’t, he would be cheering the rise in harmless CO2.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 12:21 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  BusterBrown@hotmail.com
December 26, 2015 4:08 pm

Bluster Brown,
And your point is …?
More CO2 has been entirely beneficial. It did not cause the endlessly predicted global warming (thus, the tap-dancing to “climate change”).
So the climate alarmist contingent was flat wrong. They could not have been more wrong. They are the textbook definition of WRONG.
And as a member of that wrong cult, you are also… .

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 2:08 pm

LOL, Brandon’s gardening advice, whatever you do don’t fertilise those tomatoes don’t water those chrysanthemums, it’ll just help the weeds grow.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 2:57 pm

DB,
My point is that harmless implies neither harm nor benefit, whereas more CO2 in the air is in fact beneficial, not just harmless.

Reply to  Gloateus Maximus
December 26, 2015 8:42 pm

GM,
That’s why I wrote: ‘Harmless and beneficial. CO2 is both.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 3:57 pm

Chris Hanley,

LOL, Brandon’s gardening advice, whatever you do don’t fertilise those tomatoes don’t water those chrysanthemums, it’ll just help the weeds grow.

LOL, I’m the worst person in the world to ask gardening advice of, but I do know from direct observation that it takes a crew of 5 guys over an hour to pull up the weekly crop of foxtails in the landscaping … and that left unattended they would quickly overwhelm the less competitive — but pretty — plants they worked so hard to install in their place. Rare is there a benefit on this orb that doesn’t come with some additional cost.
Whether more CO2 would be a NET benefit is the question, and a good one at that. In the spirit of the OP, for the answer, I refer you to Dr. Dyson by way of Dr. Lindzen; there are many things about climate that we don’t fully understand.
I’m saying; ok then, if you don’t understand it, probably best to not be tweaking it.
Pretty simple logic … I marvel that so many folks struggle with it.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 4:42 pm

BG- “LOL, I’m the worst person in the world to ask gardening advice of, but I do know from direct observation that it takes a crew of 5 guys over an hour to pull up the weekly crop of foxtails in the landscaping … and that left unattended they would quickly overwhelm the less competitive — but pretty — plants they worked so hard to install in their place. Rare is there a benefit on this orb that doesn’t come with some additional cost.”
So, you consider it a “benefit” when humans tear up the indigenous plants (weeds) in a given area and attempt to “tweak” the terrain with landscaping that cannot thrive on it’s own without man’s help. Right? Do those 5 guys also use powered mowers, edgers, weed whackers, automobiles and/or trucks? I ask because you seem perfectly ok with the “benefit” of having professional landscapers come with some additional cost to the planet itself. But then again, you may have attempted (and continue to attempt) to have all that “tweaking” stopped and left alone to return to nature. I’d hate to assume either way…
BR-“there are many things about climate that we don’t fully understand.” “I’m saying; ok then, if you don’t understand it, probably best to not be tweaking it.” “Pretty simple logic … I marvel that so many folks struggle with it.”
Captain Marvel…and by the very same logical premise, that “if we don’t fully understand the climate”, then you have no support for the argument that human emissions are damaging it, or “tweaking it” even a little! That you cannot SEE how the same flawed logic undermines your entire argument, is pretty stunning to everyone else.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 4:57 pm

I’m saying; ok then, if you don’t understand it, probably best to not be tweaking it.
Pretty simple logic … I marvel that so many folks struggle with it.

Thanks for providing the patient Brandon. Appeal to ignorance and fear wrapped in one.
The next most popular of the holidays heard from lollygaggers …
“Are you saying we should go back to burning dirty fuels, clogging our air and ruining our waters ??”

Chris Hanley
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 4:24 pm

“… it takes a crew of 5 guys over an hour to pull up the weekly crop of foxtails in the landscaping …”.
============================
Great, more CO2 = more green jobs.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 4:28 pm

Chris Hanley says: ” more green jobs.”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Aphan
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 4:49 pm

Buster Brown-
“Unfortunately, most of the landscaping jobs created are taken by undocumented illegals. It exacerbates the problem with the southern border.”
Well then shame on Brandon Gates right? There would be no jobs for undocumented illegals if people did their own landscaping. And perhaps there would be no undocumented illegals taking jobs if our government actually spent as much time trying to protect the country that they do trying to protect the environment.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 4:55 pm

Aphan: “then shame on Brandon Gates right?

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

RockyRoad
Reply to  Latitude
December 26, 2015 9:34 pm

Sure I can blame the contractors for hiring illegals. What they’re doing is illegal.

Reply to  RockyRoad
December 26, 2015 9:51 pm

The ends justifies the means on multiple issues in society these days.
Mr Ed would have a very difficult time explaining this to Wilbur.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 27, 2015 12:50 pm

knutesea,

Appeal to ignorance and fear wrapped in one.

Here’s the original “appeal to ignorance” to which I am responding: Dyson, further notes that the ice ages were major examples of climate change that we don’t fully understand, and that lacking this understanding suggests that we don’t really understand climate change.
Fearing the unknown may very well be fallacious, but it’s hard to argue that it isn’t an effective survival trait.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 1:09 pm

Fearing the unknown may very well be fallacious, but it’s hard to argue that it isn’t an effective survival trait.

It’s an effective survival trait when the fear is based on reality. When it’s not you increase your chances of wasting precious attention and energy on less meaningful things.
Let’s take investing/building wealth. Many an uninformed informed investor chases a popular thing out of fear that they are missing something and they end up losing more often than not. The informed investor learns to watch for the panic (uninformed fear) and then buys.
One of the best leadership traits is knowing the difference between what is real and what is not. It’s no easy task as evident from the multiple biases man possesses. Most good leaders have trusted advisors who call them on their bullshit.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 27, 2015 1:37 pm

Aphan,

So, you consider it a “benefit” when humans tear up the indigenous plants (weeds) in a given area and attempt to “tweak” the terrain with landscaping that cannot thrive on it’s own without man’s help. Right?

Yes.

Do those 5 guys also use powered mowers, edgers, weed whackers, automobiles and/or trucks?

Yes.

I ask because you seem perfectly ok with the “benefit” of having professional landscapers come with some additional cost to the planet itself.

I don’t give a flying leap about the planet. George Carlin’s epic rant about plastics and the planet is a fair assessment of my feelings on it being existentially impervious to our influence. What I do care about is the planet’s ability to support human life and civilization in the style and comfort to which we have been accustomed. Since we are unarguably reliant on the biosphere for our continued sustenance, I have a selfish interest in its continued productivity.
When stuff like this goes down …
http://scriptshadow.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/rUNFYnD.jpg
… images like this …
http://advocacy.britannica.com/blog/advocacy/wp-content/uploads/oil-bird.jpg
… can’t help but tug at my heart strings, but what literally puts me off my feed are images like this …
http://www.marketplace.org/sites/default/files/WWW/data/images/repository/2010/06/16/20100616_dead_fish_23.jpg
And my empathy really gets into 5th gear reading headlines like this: Empty nets in Louisiana three years after the spill
The money quote: “This economy is totally gone in my community,” said Encalade, 59. “There is no economy. The two construction jobs that are going on — the prison and the school — if it weren’t for those, the grocery store would be closing.”
These are the thoughts I have in my head when the landscapers show up with two-stroke-powered leaf blowers and chainsaws. For visceral emotional response, CO2-driven warming just doesn’t rate because frankly, for me, things like Katrina, Sandy and Haiyan occur at a frequency which I personally think is indistinguishable from the base rate.

But then again, you may have attempted (and continue to attempt) to have all that “tweaking” stopped and left alone to return to nature.

I have zero interest in “giving” the planet back to “nature”. I’m part of nature, and damn glad to belong to the species which is the apex predator.

I’d hate to assume either way…

But you apparently don’t hate irrelevant discussions about my personal lifestyle.

Captain Marvel…and by the very same logical premise, that “if we don’t fully understand the climate”, then you have no support for the argument that human emissions are damaging it, or “tweaking it” even a little! That you cannot SEE how the same flawed logic undermines your entire argument, is pretty stunning to everyone else.

What’s stunning for me is that you and others here continually edit out the context of my argument, which is in response to Dr. Lindzen paraphrasing Dr. Dyson: Dyson, further notes that the ice ages were major examples of climate change that we don’t fully understand, and that lacking this understanding suggests that we don’t really understand climate change. As another example of something that we don’t understand, he cites the potential role of the sun.
Either learn how to read, or find it within yourself to honestly portray what you read. I’d hate to assume either way …

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 2:23 pm

BG
You put alot of effort into your posts and your a decent writer. Because you put so much effort, I assume it reflects a major part of your persona. This part struck me as a central theme :

“What I do care about is the planet’s ability to support human life and civilization in the style and comfort to which we have been accustomed. Since we are unarguably reliant on the biosphere for our continued sustenance, I have a selfish interest in its continued productivity.”

.
Heartfelt and sincere.
I also see that your are pushing the narrative that the uncertainty of climate change is something we should protect ourselves from. You tag team that narrative with dirty fossils have no place in sustaining the world you envision.
Obviously you know that climate always changes. I’m sure your also smart enough to know we were both warmer and colder in the past all without little man’s influence.
“Better” forms of energy are a fine aspiration and those that want that should achieve it on its own merit, not by manipulating fear. Being honest and not fooling people will achieve a better chance that the world you envision will occur.
The effort becomes more efficient. The movement meaningful.
Lead.

Aphan
Reply to  knutesea
December 27, 2015 2:52 pm

One has to wonder why he didn’t just start with that instead of all the dancing and strawman building and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him. What did he hope to accomplish? What was his purpose? His tactics certainly do not win others to his position or engender trust or belief. Perhaps he just wanted to waste our time, but at least it increases traffic here at WUWT. 🙂

Reply to  Aphan
December 27, 2015 4:17 pm

Don’t know.
What I do know is WUWT has a certain caliber of thinker and someone throwing themselves into the pot may think they have to impress with some hyper attempt at thought swordplay.
Countless examples of that behavoir in all types of societal groups. It’s obviously easier to observe when you’re not in it. I’m just guessing and of course don’t “know”. E-behavoir is harder to read than real life.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 27, 2015 9:40 pm

knutesea,

It’s an effective survival trait when the fear is based on reality.

Fear of the unknown makes it explicitly clear that reality is not known.

When it’s not you increase your chances of wasting precious attention and energy on less meaningful things.

Which odds can only possibly be calculated after the fact. And then only if the thing wasn’t deadly and didn’t kill you.

The informed investor learns to watch for the panic (uninformed fear) and then buys.

Most stock pickers do not beat the market index of choice. Many many get completely wiped out. That reminds me, has Chipotle hit bottom yet?
Are you SURE?

One of the best leadership traits is knowing the difference between what is real and what is not.

Yes of course, and I would agree with you that accurate perception of past reality lends itself to forecasting future realities, but it’s not guaranteed. Shit happens.

It’s no easy task as evident from the multiple biases man possesses.

I totally agree.

Most good leaders have trusted advisors who call them on their bullshit.

And more importantly; are humble and wise enough to listen to good advice.
So. I don’t do risk management for a living, but I’ve visited various risk departments enough to pick up some basics:
1) Have a good handle on one’s total exposure.
2) Be diversified.
3) The higher the uncertainty, the higher the percieved risk.
With respect to AGW and (1) I consider myself almost wholly in the dark.
I can, and have, made a case for “early” transition to renewables and nulear power by way of (2).
(3) is the main one I’ve been banging on in this thread, and it has been, shall I say, mostly falling on deaf ears. Or interpreted as fear-mongering.
[break]

You put alot of effort into your posts and your a decent writer. Because you put so much effort, I assume it reflects a major part of your persona.

Thank you. I like to write and I like to learn, and have a touch of evangelical spirit. I also like to argue.

Heartfelt and sincere.

It felt good to write, glad it was appreciated.

I also see that your are pushing the narrative that the uncertainty of climate change is something we should protect ourselves from.

Almost. I’m saying that climate change is something we should avoid because it is uncertain how it will play out. I’m a long way from being able to tell you honestly that yes, I absolutely believe a > 1.5-2.0-(pick one)-degree rise in temperature is going to result in unambiguous disaster.
What I’m most confident about is that we are having a noticeable affect on multi-decadal temperature trends, and that the main mechanism is CO2. IOW, the past and present is written, it’s livable, and therefore keeping things as close as possible to that range is more prudent than forging ahead into an uncertain, unknown future which is already full of those things for a litany of other reasons.

You tag team that narrative with dirty fossils have no place in sustaining the world you envision.

No. One of my rules of thumb is that thinking in such absolutes is not realistic or practical. Shale gas fracking is a good short-term trade for coal-fired electrical power in my mind. I’d rather build more nukes and use the methane for surface transport, but that runs afoul of the solar and wind or bust crowd to my perennial consternation. If tales of our imminent demise hold even a sliver of truth, I think the best call is to keep all options on the table.
I’d like to conserve as much crude oil as possible for use by the petrochemical industry, from which we get medicines and fertilizers.

Obviously you know that climate always changes. I’m sure your also smart enough to know we were both warmer and colder in the past all without little man’s influence.

I’m a data junkie, and I’ve got over a million years worth of it on this very laptop. My inexpert personal opinion having sifted and sorted through it over the years is that our signal is clearly detectable amidst the natural ones.

“Better” forms of energy are a fine aspiration and those that want that should achieve it on its own merit, not by manipulating fear. Being honest and not fooling people will achieve a better chance that the world you envision will occur.

A couple of thoughts. I’m a 70’s child, old enough to remember the 2nd (1979) oil crisis. The clean energy, free of foreign entanglements bit has been tried — I got more than my fair share of it in my formative years. I’ve argued it myself in this very forum several times earlier this year. Market forces are still winning the argument.
Secondly, when people sincerely believe in some existential threat, I don’t consider it manipulative or otherwise dishonest for them to speak to their fear of it.

Lead.

Ah, if only I had the skills and means, I’d throw most of it at setting up my own geothermal drilling/generating operation and then franchise. Perhaps it isn’t too late to try.
Aphan,

One has to wonder why he didn’t just start with that instead of all the dancing and strawman building and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him.

Ok, so a few things. I didn’t have a very good opinion of Dr. Lindzen before I read this essay, and each re-reading of it only serves to reinforce my negative opinion. He makes a number of arguments I consider flawed and that I think someone with his intelligence and resume wouldn’t give in error. In short, I suspect his motives, but I generally make a point of not imputing motive because,
1) Motives are difficult to discern and all but impossible to “prove”,
2) I think it’s better to attack the argument not the man, and
3) arguing that someone who holds contrarian views on AGW is an industry shill (or anything in the that neighborhood) is literally pouring gasoline on a fire that simply doesn’t need the encouragement.

What did he hope to accomplish? What was his purpose?

I mainly wanted to see if anyone on your “side” of the fence saw the same thing AND was willing to speak to it.

His tactics certainly do not win others to his position or engender trust or belief.

I don’t expect someone with your views to be swayed no matter how I comport myself. To the extent that I have any hope of having some influence — which I realistically consider quite slim — I would only ever expect to reach those who remain undecided.
If tactical considerations are your thing, I suggest you step back a moment and look at things like who has been calling whom names and other “tone” kinds of things. I have certainly not been “perfect” in that respect, but if you review my conversations I think you’ll find that I’m generally polite and respectful toward others who extend me the same courtesy.

Perhaps he just wanted to waste our time, but at least it increases traffic here at WUWT. 🙂

Which means I’m getting read too. Seems a fair trade.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 10:16 pm

Gates says:
Which means I’m getting read too.
Dream on. Like most readers, I skip over your anal-retentive parsing of everything. Can’t you ever just cut to the chase? Apparently not.
NONE of your alarmist pals’ predictions or fantasies have ever come true. They were all wrong. NO exceptions.
Normal, rational folks would realize that their scardey-cat worries about climate catastrophes have been so thoroughly debunked that continuing to post about them would make people like Gates a laugingstock.
But True Belief is religion; in this case, it’s Gates’ own eco-religion. He’s infected by it, and there’s no hope of salvation or redemption. The scales will never fall from his eyes.
So prove me wrong, Gates: post empirical, verifiable, testable measurements quantifying the putative fraction of global warming caused by human CO2 emissions. Or go home.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 28, 2015 7:13 am

Almost. I’m saying that climate change is something we should avoid because it is uncertain how it will play out. I’m a long way from being able to tell you honestly that yes, I absolutely believe a > 1.5-2.0-(pick one)-degree rise in temperature is going to result in unambiguous disaster.
What I’m most confident about is that we are having a noticeable affect on multi-decadal temperature trends, and that the main mechanism is CO2. IOW, the past and present is written, it’s livable, and therefore keeping things as close as possible to that range is more prudent than forging ahead into an uncertain, unknown future which is already full of those things for a litany of other reasons.

You write long posts which unfortunately are not conducive to the blogosphere because they are not very conversational. In the e-world IM is better. Obviously face to face is best. I carved out the above quote because it articukated the core of yoir belief.
Since you “believe” that what man is doing to change climate is imprudent (notice I’m reflecting your words) and you’re not interested to personally evaluating that belief, you should move on to a forum that discusses how to fix that imprudent choice.
I don’t run WUWT, but my personal opinion of this site is that it is very useful for those who doubt that CAGW exists. Here, they are rigid about providing evidence to beliefs and fervent concerning the routing out of fallacious debate concerning that evidence.
In summary, since your not here to challenge your own beliefs concerning CO2 influenced CAGW, you’ll eventually end up talking to yourself.
Lastly, since you’re a data head, I’d suggest one of the ways to test your belief is to create a business proposal concerning your energy solutions and shop it to the targeted market. I think you’ll find that options such as geothermal are good local alternatives. The new trend is a decentralization of coal based electricity. This will result in the localized choices for what works best and the localized infrastructure to support it. If you can make or save people money, the market will reward you.
Good luck and if you go this route please send me a link to your webpage.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 28, 2015 12:50 pm

knutesea

You write long posts which unfortunately are not conducive to the blogosphere because they are not very conversational.

I offer the possibility that discussing a massive and complex system as climate is not conducive to short communications. That said, I am all too aware that concision is not one of my strengths.

Since you “believe” that what man is doing to change climate is imprudent (notice I’m reflecting your words) and you’re not interested to personally evaluating that belief, you should move on to a forum that discusses how to fix that imprudent choice.

You proceed from a false explicit assumption that I’m not interested in evaluating my beliefs, a false implicit assumption that I don’t read/participate in fora which discuss how to reduce CO2 emissions and cap it off with the false choice that I can only participate here or somewhere else.

Here, they are rigid about providing evidence to beliefs and fervent concerning the routing out of fallacious debate concerning that evidence.

I think that sometimes, some do a good job of living up to it. Sometimes, it gets a bit overdone … witness the several comments on this thread characterizing my arguments invoking principles of risk mitigation as fallacious appeals to ignorance as if it is somehow possible for me to provide evidence of future events.

Lastly, since you’re a data head, I’d suggest one of the ways to test your belief is to create a business proposal concerning your energy solutions and shop it to the targeted market.

Probably the best option for me personally is to find a start up offering some ground floor opportunities. Your point about offering geothermal as an alternative to decentralized coal is an interesting one. Very small wells require less up-front capital risk, but to be cost-effective they would also have to be very shallow relative to larger installations. That puts a limit on the number of opportunities, but if it’s an under-served niche there could be a viable business model to serve it.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 28, 2015 1:41 pm

dbstealey,

So prove me wrong, Gates: post empirical, verifiable, testable measurements quantifying the putative fraction of global warming caused by human CO2 emissions.

Haven’t we done this dance already? Didn’t I already tell you that all I can give you are estimates of human contributions to temperature trends? Haven’t you therefore already declared victory because the fact that I can’t provide a direct measurement means that I must be wrong?
Why do you repeat the same question over and over and over after it has already been honestly answered to the best of present human ability?
Here is the IPCC attribution statement: More than half of the observed increase in global mean surface temperature (GMST) from 1951 to 2010 is very likely due to the observed anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations.
This is a summary of the estimated component contributions:comment image
And this is the probability distribution function of the causes attributed to anthropogenic influences based on the above plot:
http://www.realclimate.org/images/attribution.jpg
Based on that PDF, the best guess is that 110% of the observed warming since 1950 is due to anthropogenic influences.
You may read about the particulars here:
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf

Or go home.

I am home.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 28, 2015 6:54 pm

Gates says:
“all I can give you are estimates”
That’s all anyone has. But we need measurements, because measurements are data and without data you’re really just guesstimating. Posting graphics doesn’t make your guesstimates valid.
Based on those guesstimates, every alarming prediction ever made has turned out to be wrong. When that happens rational folks will admit that they’re on the wrong track. And of course, you are: you have no credible evidence showing that human emitted CO2 does anything. All you have are your guesstimates. But you’re ruled by your belief system as surely as any Jehovah’s Witness, and your lengthy, drawn out commentaries are accomplishing nothing except re-confirming your bias.
Without measurements quantifying what you believe is happening, you’ve got nothing.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Latitude
December 28, 2015 9:48 pm

dbstealey,

But we need measurements, because measurements are data and without data you’re really just guesstimating.

You asked for the fraction of warming attributable human activity. That is a calculation. Because that caluclation involves things which we cannot measure directly, estimates are used. That means that the final calculation is an estimate, yes? We agree? Good.
Now, just because estimates were used in the calculation does not mean that no measurements were included in the calculations. I repeat, you can find the particulars of what went into making those pretty pictures here:
https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter10_FINAL.pdf
As much as I personally would love to have a handheld device that I could take outside and measure the A in GW with, no such device exists and all but certainly never will.
Once again, I have answered your question. I understand you don’t accept the answer because about the only data I know of that meet your requirements for being empirical, verifiable, and testable either come from ice cores or microwave sounding units (with bonus points awarded for using the Wood for Trees website). Not much I can do about that, but it does tend to make me wonder how truly genuine your requests for data are given how much page space you fill rejecting so much of it.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 29, 2015 10:50 am

Gates says:
I understand you don’t accept the answer …
Oh, but I do accept your answer. Your answer is a guesstimate.
But it’s fun watching you try to tap-dance around the fact that the entire ‘carbon’ scare is supported only by guesstimates and mountains of propaganda money.
Wake me when someone measures AGW.

Reply to  dbstealey
December 29, 2015 11:33 am

DB
A post over at CE laid down a descriptive phrase … warmist wriggle worms … deny, divert, confuse … I think his name was Mike Flynn.

bill hunter
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 9:41 am

Gates: “I infer from this that you therefore believe that climate change is not harmful. One wonders how you arrived at this conclusion, especially given …”
Lindzen does not appear to make any such inference as fact. What he points out is the one degree warming thus far (mostly natural) has been accompanied by beneficial impacts on humans. The world is still generally a cold place for human beings (note: equatorial population rates versus polar population rates per sq meter). While such a measure is not conclusive, Lindzen has often pointed out that the preponderance of evidence suggests warming will more likely be beneficial than harmful. Your response is cherry picking suggesting other developments as accounting for the unquestioned net beneficial effects on human populations over the past 150 years without any kind of proof.
What is really being challenged here is the freedom of people to improve their chances of survival based upon their personal choices without clear scientific evidence that their personal choices are going to be harmful to the environment. Its the same kind of thinking employed by dictators from the beginning of time. Evidence is not important, what is important is what I believe and what I believe is more important than what others believe.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 12:54 pm

bill hunter,

Lindzen does not appear to make any such inference as fact.

I’m well aware that he doesn’t come right out and say, “everything is going to be fine, there’s nothing to worry about” … that’s what Stealey is for: Here’s a good example of the truth: the rise in CO2 is harmless.
I’m pretty sure Dr. Lindzen knows his audience.

While such a measure is not conclusive, Lindzen has often pointed out that the preponderance of evidence suggests warming will more likely be beneficial than harmful.

Requoting Dr. Lindzen parphrasing Dr. Dyson: Dyson, further notes that the ice ages were major examples of climate change that we don’t fully understand, and that lacking this understanding suggests that we don’t really understand climate change. As another example of something that we don’t understand, he cites the potential role of the sun.

Your response is cherry picking suggesting other developments as accounting for the unquestioned net beneficial effects on human populations over the past 150 years without any kind of proof.

My main argument is this: in the face of large uncertainty about how the climate system works (we don’t fully understand), the conservative risk-management response is to minimize changes to that system.

What is really being challenged here is the freedom of people to improve their chances of survival based upon their personal choices without clear scientific evidence that their personal choices are going to be harmful to the environment.

Go back, again, to the Dr. Curry-esque Uncertainty Monster Dr. Lindzen has invoked and consider the other side: without clear scientific evidence that our personal choices are going to be beneficial to the environment, there’s little assurance to people of the poorer nations of the planet that their chance of survival (as a nation) is as good as those of rich nations.
It really would have been priceless to have seen you argue with the representatives of low-lying island nations at COP21 about the importance of your personal freedoms as an enhancement to their chances of their survival on their own soil.

Its the same kind of thinking employed by dictators from the beginning of time. Evidence is not important, what is important is what I believe and what I believe is more important than what others believe.

Evidence of future events has been impossible to come by since the beginning of time. Evidence from past events suggests that the relative stability of temperatures during the Holocene is most beneficial to our success as a species.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 1:01 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Aphan
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 2:04 pm

“My main argument is this: in the face of large uncertainty about how the climate system works (we don’t fully understand), the conservative risk-management response is to minimize changes to that system.”
It is equally as illogical to assume that we can minimize changes to a system WE DO NOT understand! You’re standing on the same platform you are mocking Lindzen for, you know that right?
“Evidence from past events suggests that the relative stability of temperatures during the Holocene is most beneficial to our success as a species.”
Evidence from the past suggests that thee relative stability of temperatures during the Holocene is a FREAK of nature, is NOT the norm, is an ANOMALY in the history of this planet! If you want to go all correlation is causation irrational, then you cannot object to the statement that maybe human development is the REASON the climate has remained so stable during this exact period in history! What if our attempt to remove Co2 from the atmosphere results in a RETURN to the chaotic, abruptly changing climate of the past?
There is ZERO empirical evidence that minimizing changes to that system will prevent that system from changing.

Reply to  Aphan
December 26, 2015 3:09 pm

Lots of tight +1 logic in this thread esp aphan’s … excellent educational reading.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:02 pm

Brandon,
That increasing CO2 concentration from three to four molecules per 10,000 dry air molecules over the past 115 years or so has in fact been beneficial is a fact. There is no hypothetical about it.
Adding another two molecules, to 600 ppm, over the next century would be even more beneficial. Better yet would be doubling the vital trace gas to 800 ppm, at which level most plants would still be gasping for the CO2 they need. Best of all would be 1200 ppm, ie the level in real greenhouses.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:06 pm

Gloateus Maximus says:
.
” or so has in fact been beneficial is a fact.”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:14 pm

Buster,
Dunno how the greening of the earth via CO2 fertilization has escaped your notice.
http://earthsky.org/science-wire/elevated-carbon-dioxide-making-arid-regions-greener
The Sahel, for instance, which used to be a region of concern, no longer is or less so, thanks to a little more plant food in the air. As you must know, with more CO2 available, plants don’t need to leave their leaf stomata open as long to get the food they need, hence they lose less water, so can live in more arid environments.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:19 pm

Buster,
[snip. -mod]
I was counting on that, dangit, now you’ve gone and ruined it! 😀
Aphan,

It is equally as illogical to assume that we can minimize changes to a system WE DO NOT understand!

Typically I assume that a steady-state system will not depart from that state unless perturbed.

You’re standing on the same platform you are mocking Lindzen for, you know that right?

I’m challenging Dr. Lindzen’s implied conclusion that more CO2 is good because … plant food … in light of his opinion (buttressed by Dr. Dyson’s) that “we don’t fully understand” climate. I’m a bit surprised (but not really) that some of the more skeptical folks here aren’t all over him for that apparent contradiction.

Evidence from the past suggests that thee relative stability of temperatures during the Holocene is a FREAK of nature, is NOT the norm, is an ANOMALY in the history of this planet!

Be that as it may [1], it still does not address the observation that said relative stability may have been of the utmost benefit to human beings.

If you want to go all correlation is causation irrational, then you cannot object to the statement that maybe human development is the REASON the climate has remained so stable during this exact period in history!

That’s a logical possibility of course, but I’d need a plausible physical explanation backed by evidence to support it. I must confess; I have no such explanation or evidence. OTOH, I have a plausible physical explanation for CO2’s radiative effects on the atmosphere, and gobs of evidence supporting the argument that it has indeed had an effect on global temperatures since the beginning of the industrial revolution.

What if our attempt to remove Co2 from the atmosphere results in a RETURN to the chaotic, abruptly changing climate of the past?

10,000 years of CO2 ~280 ppmv with global temps only varying on the order of 0.5 K suggest that such concerns are unlikely.

There is ZERO empirical evidence that minimizing changes to that system will prevent that system from changing.

Well again, my default assumption about steady state physical systems is that they don’t change state on a whim. I suppose it’s possible that cyclical boom/bust cycles of unseen Leprechauns smelting gold on the bottom of the oceans explains the ice-age cycles over the past 800 k years, but …comment image
… evidence suggests that the planet is fairly predictable in its response to long-period external forcing changes.
————
[1] The relative stability of the Holocene is almost certainly due to orbital forcing cycles being presently out of phase with each other relative to previous interglacials, thereby damping the rate and amplitude of their combined forcing.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:20 pm

Gloateus Maximus says:
.
“greening of the earth via CO2 fertilization”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Aphan
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 3:59 pm

BG-“Typically I assume that a steady-state system will not depart from that state unless perturbed.”
Earth is not a “steady state system”. The past 11,000+ years or so are an anomaly, out of the ordinary.
BG-“I’m challenging Dr. Lindzen’s implied conclusion that more CO2 is good because … plant food … in light of his opinion (buttressed by Dr. Dyson’s) that “we don’t fully understand” climate. I’m a bit surprised (but not really) that some of the more skeptical folks here aren’t all over him for that”
He said Co2 IS plant food….which it is. Do you disagree? Too busy being all over YOU for attributing your irrational “implied” conclusion to HIM….while using the same flawed logic to defend yourself. You see, logic dictates that in his absence, I can only make assumptions about what he meant or implied, and assumptions are often wrong. But you ARE here, hence, I’m questioning YOUR logic, which continues to be flawed even after questioning.
BG- “Be that as it may [1], it still does not address the observation that said relative stability may have been of the utmost benefit to human beings.”
That relative stability started at the beginning of, and continues through, human civilization,…it’s STILL OCCURRING under high CO2 levels. That high CO2 level is PART OF that utmost beneficial to human being period.
BG-“Well again, my default assumption about steady state physical systems is that they don’t change state on a whim.”
Well again, only a fool’s default position would be that the last 11,000+ years, of relative stability, cancels out/negates the other 4.5 Billion years of Earth’s existence. The “steady state” of Earth’s climate is abrupt, often chaotic climate change. So I eagerly await you explaining upon what “whim” Earth’s “steady/changing constantly/state changed 11,000+ years ago! I’ll make popcorn and sit by my monitor.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:06 pm

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
December 26, 2015 at 3:20 pm
Can you really be this misinformed? Of course it’s not from algae. It’s from C3 green plants, which represent approximately 95% of Earth’s plant biomass. C3 plants lose 97% of the water taken up through their roots to transpiration. Examples include cereal grains such as wheat, rice, barley and oats, plus other important crops, like peanuts, cotton, sugar beets, tobacco, spinach and soybeans, as well as most trees and lawn grasses, eg rye and fescue.

Reply to  Gloateus Maximus
December 26, 2015 8:40 pm

GM says:
Can you really be this misinformed?
He is, believe me. I know first-hand.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:11 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:12 pm

PS: People don’t grow algae in greenhouses. They keep greenhouses at 1300 ppm of CO2 because that’s optimum for the valuable plants grown in those ideal conditions.
The ignorance of alarmists of the most elementary scientific facts never ceases to amaze me.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:15 pm

Buster,
Re weeds. Apparently you’re unaware of how agriculture works. Farmers, orchardists and gardeners seek to control weeds and encourage crops. In a state of nature, “weeds” are often preferable to desert sand and soil without vegetation. Pastoralists can graze or browse their livestock on many wild plants.
Strange that so-called Greens hate the greening of the Earth thanks to man-made plant food added to the air.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:15 pm

Gloateus Maximus…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:18 pm

Gloateus Maximus
.
“seek to control weeds and encourage crops.”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:39 pm

Buster,
I’m getting tired of having to educate you on the most elementary science and agriculture.
Most phytoplankton get their CO2 from the water, not the air.
Farmers spray or harrow to get rid of weeds in any case, regardless of how many there are going to be. “Weeds” outside of cropland are forage for the animals which pastoralists drive over the pasture or rangeland.
How many times must such simple realities be explained to you? “Weeds” are green plants, so also green the earth. Growing vegetation where before there was desert is a good thing. Even plants without use for humans are a carbon sink, which you should like.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 4:45 pm

Gloateus Maximus says: “Most phytoplankton get their CO2 from the water, not the air. ”

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Reply to  BusterBrown@hotmail.com
December 26, 2015 5:32 pm

Movie review
The popcorn was cheap but the warmist character’s script was wordy and poorly developed.
Was that the intention of the director ?

JB Goode
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 5:02 pm

@Brandon Gates December 26, 2015 at 12:54 pm
‘It really would have been priceless to have seen you argue with the representatives of low-lying island nations at COP21 about the importance of your personal freedoms as an enhancement to their chances of their survival on their own soil’
Brandon FYI
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise#.VXI6nzcw-id
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/02/150213-tuvalu-sopoaga-kench-kiribati-maldives-cyclone-marshall-islands/
So who would you have me argue with,while you’re busy sorting Dick Lindzen out?
This guy?

How about Ian Fry,who lives in Australia just on the outskirts of Canberra in a landlocked city called Queanbeyan.He starts crying at the 3min mark.

Thanks Brandon, you’re priceless.

Aphan
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 5:04 pm

Buster Brown- “PS, I checked pictures of Death Valley, and the increased CO2 doesn’t seem to have done much to “green” that area.”
Oh, well THAT proves him wrong right there! Because everyone knows that all you need is CO2 to turn things green!

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 5:11 pm

Aphan…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 6:27 pm

Aphan,

Earth is not a “steady state system”.

I didn’t say that it was. What I did say is: Typically I assume that a steady-state system will not depart from that state unless perturbed.
Now are you honestly going to argue with me that the planet isn’t trying to achieve thermodynamic equilbrium with itself and its surroundings?

The past 11,000+ years or so are an anomaly, out of the ordinary.

Yes, you said that already. The Milankovitch plot I already posted above contains some clues as to why that might be.

He said Co2 IS plant food….which it is. Do you disagree?

Don’t be silly, of course I agree.

But you ARE here, hence, I’m questioning YOUR logic, which continues to be flawed even after questioning.

Dr. Lindzen not being here didn’t stop me from questioning his argument. Perhaps he’ll be so kind as to clear up any confusion.

That relative stability started at the beginning of, and continues through, human civilization,…it’s STILL OCCURRING under high CO2 levels.

Not according to data I consider reliable …
http://skepticalscience.com//pics/regemcrufull.jpg
… your mileage will likely vary.

That high CO2 level is PART OF that utmost beneficial to human being period.

I would say that the abundance of cheap energy which caused that rising CO2 level was the most benefit. The total cost side of that ledger remains to be seen.

Well again, only a fool’s default position would be that the last 11,000+ years, of relative stability, cancels out/negates the other 4.5 Billion years of Earth’s existence.

Oh, I agree, but what that has to do with my argument is anyone’s guess. My macroecon prof put it to me this way: prior to the industrial revolution, human economic output amounts to basically … nothing. Kind of drove home the point that climate conditions 150 years ago to now is more relevant to our lives of relative wealth and luxury than 4.5 billion years ago is.

The “steady state” of Earth’s climate is abrupt, often chaotic climate change.

And my response to you is the same as it is to Dr. Linzden: if CO2 isn’t the main driver for the changes we’ve seen since the mid-19th century, what is?
Chaos is not a cause, and deterministic physical systems don’t respond to magic so far as I know.

So I eagerly await you explaining upon what “whim” Earth’s “steady/changing constantly/state changed 11,000+ years ago!

For the third time now, look at the Milankovitch plot I already posted. If you don’t get what is there to see and understand, ask.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 7:37 pm

Me-Earth is not a “steady state system”.
BG-“I didn’t say that it was. What I did say is: Typically I assume that a steady-state system will not depart from that state unless perturbed.”
Let me clarify-Earth has never been a “steady state system”, not in the past, nor now. So references to a steady state system and what may or may not perturb that system are irrelevant here.
BG-“Now are you honestly going to argue with me that the planet isn’t trying to achieve thermodynamic equilbrium with itself and its surroundings?”
First, I would never argue with you that the planet is, or is not, “trying” to do something. Use of the word “try” indicates will, conscious effort towards something. So it would be irrational to assume the Earth can “try” anything. Second, objects in thermodynamic equilibrium have the same temperature. For the planet to be in thermodynamic equilibrium with itself and its surroundings, by definition, the planet and its surroundings would all have to achieve the same temperature. Such a thing has never happened in the past, and it’s very unlikely to happen anytime soon.
Me-“That relative stability started at the beginning of, and continues through, human civilization,…it’s STILL OCCURRING under high CO2 levels.”
BG-“Not according to data I consider reliable …”
Even Marcott didn’t think his 20th century data was reliable!
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/03/response-by-marcott-et-al/comment-page-1
Q: What do paleotemperature reconstructions show about the temperature of the last 100 years?
A: Our global paleotemperature reconstruction includes a so-called “uptick” in temperatures during the 20th-century. However, in the paper we make the point that this particular feature is of shorter duration than the inherent smoothing in our statistical averaging procedure, and that it is based on only a few available paleo-reconstructions of the type we used. Thus, the 20th century portion of our paleotemperature stack is not statistically robust, cannot be considered representative of global temperature changes, and therefore is not the basis of any of our conclusions.
BG-“And my response to you is the same as it is to Dr. Linzden: if CO2 isn’t the main driver for the changes we’ve seen since the mid-19th century, what is?”
Oh I can play that game! If magic unicorn farts are not the main driver, what is? If bologna sandwiches are not the main driver, what is? Let’s see…Twinkies were invented in 1933…and sales began dropping around 2009…when did the “pause” “slowdown” “hiding heat” start? Maybe Twinkies are the main driver! Burden of proof is on the person claiming Co2 is the main driver, not me.
You bore me. And I want a Twinkie. Night!

Reply to  Aphan
December 26, 2015 7:54 pm

Aphan
Thanks again for the back and forth w BG.
After spending the past few months reading the blogger debate I became more confident in engaging in real life. It bore fruit this holiday as I was fortunate to discuss the issue with a few up in coming college graduates. All 3 youngins sent me text messages asking for more information and definitely are now skeptical of cagw.
The skepticism has caused them a bit of a quandary since they are also dedicated green energy advocates.
Again, much appreciated. I don’t think I’m the only whippersnapper that benefits in this manner.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 7:40 pm

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/11/a-simple-test-of-marcott-et-al-2013/
look like wuwt had a field day with this reconstruction attempt

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 6:52 pm

Gloateus Maximus,

That increasing CO2 concentration from three to four molecules per 10,000 dry air molecules over the past 115 years or so has in fact been beneficial is a fact. There is no hypothetical about it.

Nice to see that my side of this debate doesn’t have a monopoly on the science being settled. Sharing is good. I like to share.

Adding another two molecules, to 600 ppm, over the next century would be even more beneficial.

Two mere molecules of a trace gas can have that profound of a benefit? With no undue plausibly conceivable negative side effects? As DB is fond of saying: what a magical gas!

Better yet would be doubling the vital trace gas to 800 ppm, at which level most plants would still be gasping for the CO2 they need. Best of all would be 1200 ppm, ie the level in real greenhouses.

Well, so long as wet bulb temps stay below 37 C most of the time over most of the planet at 1200 ppmv, land-based mammals (particularly the ones on the order of our size and higher) will probably be ok … so perhaps there isn’t much to be concerned about. Heck, there’s probably a killing to be made building boats for the express purpose of navigating downtown Miami … get in early and literally ride the wave of financial success!
I can’t speak for how crustaceans will react to the lowered pH in oceans though. Remember, this is complex stuff, and according to Dr. Dyson by way of Dr. Linzen, there is a lot we don’t understand about climate … AND the biosphere. Nevermind economics ….

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:06 pm

JB Goode,

https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn27639-small-atoll-islands-may-grow-not-sink-as-sea-levels-rise#.VXI6nzcw-id

I guess you missed this: However, Kench’s findings do not apply to other types of island, like the volcanic main islands of Fiji, Tonga and Samoa.
And this: “There will be less emphasis on external migration of ‘environmental refugees’ from atoll nations that has gained such prominence in the last few years,” he says. But he notes that the atoll-building sediment comes from productive coral reefs, which face a range of threats such as warming oceans and pollution.
Other than that, it’s nice to read some potential good news for once.

So who would you have me argue with,while your’e busy sorting Dick Lindzen out. This guy?

” … could the islands … you know … tip over?” Priceless. Yes, I’d be happy sorting that guy out with you.

How about Ian Fry, who lives in Australia just on the outskirts of Canberra in a landlocked city called Queanbeyan. He starts crying at the 3min mark.

Skipped that one, pehaps you can summarize why he started crying and tell me how that in any way shape or form actually addresses any of my arguments on this thread … especially how that gets Dr. Lindzen off the hook for saying there’s much we don’t know about climate out one corner of his mouth and then amost immediately telling us out of the other corner that CO2 is plant food … implying that we’re obviously only going to benefit from changing the chemistry of our atmosphere.

Thanks Brandon,your’e priceless.

Awww shucks, I really do try you know.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 7:51 pm

“especially how that gets Dr. Lindzen off the hook for saying there’s much we don’t know about climate out one corner of his mouth and then amost immediately telling us out of the other corner that CO2 is plant food … implying that we’re obviously only going to benefit from changing the chemistry of our atmosphere.”
YOU inferred that, HE did not say that. False Attribution=logical fallacy, false dilemma=fallacy,appeal to ridicule=logical fallacy, straw man=logical fallacy.
I don’t know much about cow manure (fact) but it’s plant food (fact). Now tell me, using logic, that I just implied that we’re OBVIOUSLY only going to benefit by adding cow manure to our atmosphere. Go on. You got this! (See how idiotic your argument is?) Probably not..

clipe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:21 pm
BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:28 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:29 pm

If they can be trained to not eat the crops, we’re all good. One wonders why this isn’t already standard practice amongst the industrialized farming concerns of the world.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:31 pm

lol Buster, I see your search-fu has exceeded mine this fine day.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:34 pm

Brandon…
(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:36 pm

Near as I can tell … I went away for a time and ignored him upon my return.

clipe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:41 pm

Yum yum! Cheaper curried goat on the menu.
Artichoke Thistle
Black Berry’s*
Bull Thistle
Canada Thistle
Cheat Grass
Common Mullein
Common Tansy
Dalmatian Toad flax
Dandelions
Downy Brome
Horsetail
Indian tobacco
Ivy
Knap Weed
Kosia Weed*
Larkspur
Leafy Spurge*
Loco Weed
Medusa Head
Morning Glory
Musk Thistle
Nettle
Oxide Daisy
Plumless Thistle
Poison Oak
Poison Hemlock*
Puncture Vine (goat heads)
Purple Lostrife
Purple Star Thistle
Rush Skeleton Weed
Russian Olives*
Sage
Scotch Broom
Scotch Thistle
Snap Weed
Spotted Knapweed*
Sweet Clover
Yellow Star thistle*
Yucca
Wild Roses*
* Goat favorites

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:42 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

clipe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:52 pm

Buster, you hacked off a sentence.
The following alkaloid-containing plants are rarely eaten, except to stave off starvation.

BusterBrown@hotmail.com
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 7:57 pm

(Note: “Buster Brown” is the latest fake screen name for ‘David Socrates’, ‘Brian G Valentine’, ‘Joel D. Jackson’, ‘beckleybud’, ‘Edward Richardson’, ‘H Grouse’, and about twenty others. The same person is also an identity thief who has stolen legitimate commenters’ names. Therefore, all the time and effort he spent on his comments is wasted, because I am deleting them wholesale. ~mod.)

mebbe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 8:03 pm

There appear to be two different worlds, but, in each of them, CO2 is recognized as a wonder gas.
On planet Burnt Toast, CO2 is a potent but duplicitous vapour, giving birth to an abundance of life but ready at an instant to scorch all terrestrial organisms and dissolve their marine counterparts in a bath of acid.
On adjacent orbit, Heavenly Leavener has never enough of the miraculous gas; here, CO2 is as beneficent as it is malign on the other world.
Wherever it is that I’m from, the destructive powers have not been observed, whereas it seems hard to dispute that healthy, well-watered plants do better when they are given more CO2.
It is not clear, however, that moribund plants (due to lack of water) will thrive because they get more CO2.
Yes, we know that substantial enrichment of CO2 prompts partial closure of stomata (not early closure) and we know that if water, warmth and nutrients are not lacking, plants will grow both faster and bigger.
It’s a very interesting part of the world that, for years and years, had water availability that was just shy of the critical difference made by a few ppm of CO2 and now that we’ve got that increase, greenery is springing up where there was none before. At what stage of their growth would that happen?
Obviously CO2 can’t compensate for failed germination, since there aren’t any leaves.
CO2 makes green things bigger, it does not make brown things green and it doesn’t make green things brown.

clipe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 8:10 pm

Goats don’t need anyone to tell them what’s edible.

clipe
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 8:33 pm

Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 at 7:31 pm
lol Buster, I see your search-fu has exceeded mine this fine day.
Fine day indeed. Buster’s “search-fu” consisted of clicking on the first google goat link and failing to properly read it in his haste to counter the fact goats love CO2.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 9:00 pm

Aphan,

Let me clarify-Earth has never been a “steady state system”, not in the past, nor now. So references to a steady state system and what may or may not perturb that system are irrelevant here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steady_state
I’m not wedded to convincing you that thinking of the planet in terms of the steady state concept is valid or not. It’s pretty clear that you’re more interested in rebutting my argument about deterministic sytems following a chain of causality with semantics and invoking chaos as some kind of mythical cause in and of itself.

First, I would never argue with you that the planet is, or is not, “trying” to do something. Use of the word “try” indicates will, conscious effort towards something.

Oh look at me, anthropormorphizing when I should have been anthropogenizing. That’s it, I admit it, my whole argument is now dust. Congratulations, you got me.

Second, objects in thermodynamic equilibrium have the same temperature.

Yup.

For the planet to be in thermodynamic equilibrium with itself and its surroundings, by definition, the planet and its surroundings would all have to achieve the same temperature. Such a thing has never happened in the past, and it’s very unlikely to happen anytime soon.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe
Heat death does not imply any particular absolute temperature; it only requires that temperature differences or other processes may no longer be exploited to perform work. In the language of physics, this is when the universe reaches thermodynamic equilibrium (maximum entropy).
The entropy definition of the 2nd law of thermodynamics is what?

Even Marcott didn’t think his 20th century data was reliable!

Yes I know, that’s one reason HADCRUT4 was tacked on to the tail end of the proxy data series.

Oh I can play that game! If magic unicorn farts are not the main driver, what is?

Ok good, now you know what I’m thinking when people like you warble on about chaos, and repeat ad naseum that climate is always changing and always has.

Burden of proof is on the person claiming Co2 is the main driver, not me.

Ah, well that has been explained and demonstrated to me quite convincingly in peer reviewed literature and first year atmospheric meterology texts. I get it that you don’t buy into it, seems reasonable to ask you for an alternative explanation.

You bore me.

I’m crushed.

YOU inferred that, HE did not say that.

It appears that I’m not the only one who did, as the CO2 is plant food argument is being pressed with alacrity on this thread. Perhaps you should also set them straight until such time as Dr. Lindzen clarifies his meaning.

JohnKnight
Reply to  bill hunter
December 26, 2015 9:26 pm

Brandon Gates,
“My main argument is this: in the face of large uncertainty about how the climate system works (we don’t fully understand), the conservative risk-management response is to minimize changes to that system.”
Regardless of “down side” of that approach? Like it was just a matter of picking the option that carried least risk of :”the system” changing?
Sir, if we don’t know whether the hypothetical change would be beneficial or harmful overall, that entire argument is based on the unspoken presumption that our current climate state is optimum. If we don’t understand it, then by definition we don’t know it’s optimum.
Your main argument is very weak, it seems to me sir, and it’s a very expensive sort of conservatism you’re championing, that much we do know.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 12:13 am

JohnKnight,

Sir, if we don’t know whether the hypothetical change would be beneficial or harmful overall, that entire argument is based on the unspoken presumption that our current climate state is optimum.

No, it’s based on the implicit assumption that knowledge of the past states of the planet which coincide with human presence is more certain than unprecedented future states we’d like to be compatible with human presence on the planet.

Your main argument is very weak, it seems to me sir, and it’s a very expensive sort of conservatism you’re championing, that much we do know.

Do you own a home? Is it insured? If a lien-holder didn’t require you to insure it, would you still have a policy?
If your answer to all or most of the above is “no”, well then I truly get it that you think my argument is weak.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 9:10 am

How does having homeowners insurance, or not, support your argument? Homeowners insurance doesn’t prevent your house from being destroyed in any way. It merely replaces your home if it does get destroyed. Reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere doesn’t mean the planet won’t destroy your home, and it certainly won’t replace it. We have homeowners insurance for two reasons, accidents happen, and because we cannot control nature.

Reply to  Aphan
December 27, 2015 9:26 am

BG sounds like many of the young 20s that I’ve spoken to. I understand the analogy. Hes grasping at a straw to demonstarte how doing what he suggests is not effort poorly spent.
CO2 control is access to controlling a dirty energy creation paradigm that they want to change. Heard a very interesting pov from a youngin … ‘ya know, we have spent several wars over oil and my generation wants that to change’.
Now before you go nitpicking into their opinion and their sense of oil wars just let it sink in …..
They don’t want to fight over oil.
They prefer a future with clean and as little damage to the environment as possible energy.
They think CO2 control gets them there.
It would have been far cleaner to say that upfront but from their pov the ends justifies the means.

JohnKnight
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 1:47 am

Brandon Gates,
“No, it’s based on the implicit assumption that knowledge of the past states of the planet which coincide with human presence is more certain than unprecedented future states we’d like to be compatible with human presence on the planet.
And those states don’t include colder that optimum conditions? Is this some kind of joke ort something? And what’s with the “unprecedented future states”? Are you assuming humans never existed in a warmer climate state? . . .
(Oh my goodness, you’re a climate change denier! I thought there was no such animal, but you’ve proved me wrong it seems ; )
“Do you own a home? Is it insured?
You don’t seem to understand; to me, pumping trillions of dollars out of the people’s hands insures they will be poorer, and less able to deal with real problems that arise for whatever reason. A “conservative” approach precludes radically changing things, at great expense, without clear evidence that greater expense will be uncured if CO2 emissions continue. (At minimum).
Essentially catastrophically more harm that benefit, for sure . . when we don’t know there will actually be any “unprecedented” warming, let alone that there won’t be significant benefits, even if there are significant harmful aspects that result from AGW.
We’re not talking about anybody replacing the world should it get severely damaged, the insurance analogy is silly. This is more like moving into a trailer, so if the house burns down, I’ll have a head-start on trailer life ; )
(I don’t think you’re sincere, you’re too clever to believe what you’re pitching here, it seems to me.)

Reply to  JohnKnight
December 27, 2015 8:15 am

+1
Trust your instinct JK

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 12:24 pm

Aphan,

Homeowners insurance doesn’t prevent your house from being destroyed in any way. It merely replaces your home if it does get destroyed.

Yes, IF it does get destroyed. IF nobody can tell me for certain whether my house will be destroyed or not, why should I be forced by the lien-holder to buy a policy?
It’s a rhetorical question, deliberately disingenuous for effect.

Reducing the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere doesn’t mean the planet won’t destroy your home, and it certainly won’t replace it.

Clearly earthquakes, fires, acts of terrorism (and/or God, which most insurance policies explicitly don’t cover), etc. would continue to occur.

We have homeowners insurance for two reasons, accidents happen, and because we cannot control nature.

Yes, and we have a good idea based on past rates of accident what sort of future losses to expect on a per-home basis. This means that, in theory, an insurance premium is some function of the replacement value multiplied by the rate of loss.
The problem with the cost of CO2 mitigation is that the actuarial tables do not exist. All estimates of future human, biosphere (and ultimately, economic) loss are just that — estimates based on subjective economic models loosely coupled with output from very imperfect physical models … and maybe here and there some semi-empirical models based on flood and wildfire damages.
I don’t like it any more than you do, I assure you.
The thing is, we make risk management decisions using imperfect (or non-existent) knowledge all the time, and spend a lot of money attempting to make sure that worse than the worst case scenario does not happen. About the largest scale I can immediately think of is national defense, which in the US accounts for about 4% of GDP, and around 35% of federal tax revenues.
Can you tell me for certain that we’re not overpaying our premium? How would you know? Here’s one view:comment image
Says the stereotypical bleeding heart envirowingnut leftist: Are we planning on getting into a war with the entire rest of the world or something? I could slightly less irrationally argue: look, of the nations on that leader board, the most we’d have to worry about handling simultaneously is China and Russia. Parity with them in nominal dollars is $276 billion, so why not slash $364 billion from the defense budget and save ourselves 57%? Heck that would reduce the budget deficit from $426 billion to $62 billion without raising taxes OR going after entitlement spending.
Do I really advocate doing such a thing? No. My first objection right off the bat is that instantly slashing 57% of our military spending would all but surely send our defense contractors’ stocks into a tailspin and the economy would tank. My second objection is: it’s hard to argue with success — no foreign state has attacked us on our own soil since 1941, and no foreign state has set hostile feet on our mainland since 1812 [1]. Maybe halving our military budget would not affect the deterrent value of our armed forces … but I can’t be sure can I? Seems to me that the result of our overwhelmingly world-best military power has reduced the risk of invasion close enough to zero as to make quibbling over whether it’s to three or four decimal places moot.
Sounds rational doesn’t it? No. No, it really isn’t. It’s an emotional argument. I pay my share of the US defense budget for the peace of mind.
I would gladly fork over 1% of my income in carbon taxes for the same peace of mind, with the added benefit of a cleaner conscience.
————
[1] Pancho Villa’s 1916 incursion wasn’t state-sanctioned, but it does arguably qualify as an invasion by an occupying force. I’m not forgetting the Civil War either.

JohnKnight
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 4:27 pm

Brandon Gates,
“I would gladly fork over 1% of my income in carbon taxes for the same peace of mind, with the added benefit of a cleaner conscience.”
I seriously doubt the sort of people you’re targeting with this meandering justification for handing over more money and power to the DC/UN elites to play God with, sir. Therefor I see no point in chasing down your every “Big Brother is our Saviour” line of fear mongering pretend reasoning. The “defense” expenditures have resulted in nothing remotely resembling “peace of mind”, it seems to me, but rather a multitude of violent escapades abroad, and a whole lot of carnage that only a psychopath could feel a clean conscious as a result of, as I see the world.

Reply to  JohnKnight
December 27, 2015 4:35 pm

The early 20s age bracket that I’ve hung out with these holidays say they would gladly fork over 10% for the new energy frontier they envision. As one joked … yeah, but that may change as we pay our own bills.
That was funny in its honesty.
The one that really caught my attention was the one that said … at least we aren’t spending the money defending some oil rich desert. What I sensed in that remark was that part of this current mass movement is a backlash to war that they perceive is alot about oil.
My peanut gallery perception is that the youth are latching onto the cagw movement at least in part a a rejection of the “old ways” of war and specifically war for oil.

Aphan
Reply to  JohnKnight
December 27, 2015 5:09 pm

BG said “I would gladly fork over 1% of my income in carbon taxes for the same peace of mind, with the added benefit of a cleaner conscience.”
Poor guy. Burdened with a disquieted mind, a dirty conscience, and disposable income! I myself do not suffer from any of those afflictions, but I can genuinely pity those who do. 🙂

Reply to  Aphan
December 27, 2015 5:35 pm

False guilt has been preyed upon by the manipulators … Dante would have them burn the hottest.

Aphan
Reply to  knutesea
December 27, 2015 5:45 pm

I wonder if their ashes in the atmosphere of hell will cool it or warm it further? At least if it cooled it, they’d feel better about themselves. 🙂

JohnKnight
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 4:33 pm

Oops, I left out the “have read this far” at the end of my first sentence above.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 6:13 pm

JohnKnight,

The “defense” expenditures have resulted in nothing remotely resembling “peace of mind”, it seems to me, but rather a multitude of violent escapades abroad, and a whole lot of carnage that only a psychopath could feel a clean conscious as a result of, as I see the world.

Here’s exactly what I wrote: I would gladly fork over 1% of my income in carbon taxes for the same peace of mind, with the added benefit of a cleaner conscience.
Apparently I did not make myself clear enough. I recognize that my relatively lavish and comfortable lifestyle is due in no small part to our history of importing foreign oil. To ensure safe passage of those products by way of ocean shipping, we have historically deployed the most powerful navy in human history. And yes, I believe that the 2003 invasion of Iraq was more about securing its oil reserves (and doing favors for the Administration’s various corporate financiers) than it was about yellowcake and aluminum centrifuge tubes. I thought it was a bad call before we went in, and I know for a fact that it was a bad call in retrospect.
The non-invasion part of that is the dirty conscience which goes along with the sense of security. I simply do not see that it would have been feasible to have imported all of that oil without projecting military power around the choke points along the shipping lanes.
Moving to non-fossil fuel energy would go along way toward undirtying my conscience for two reasons:
1) It would mean that I am passing on less of fossil fuel’s externalized costs in terms of climate impacts to future generations, and
2) Offers some hope of reduction in our foreign entanglements, particularly the Middle East.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 8:03 pm

http://www.npr.org/2012/04/11/150444802/where-does-america-get-oil-you-may-be-surprised
Your irrational guilt and fear in the #1 area aside, this should make you feel better in the #2 department (unless you object to enriching foreign countries through purchasing their exports for some odd reason)

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 27, 2015 6:20 pm

Aphan,

Burdened with a disquieted mind, a dirty conscience, and disposable income!

I’m of the mind that a person who doesn’t find some dirt in his or her conscience isn’t looking hard enough, isn’t being honest about what they see, lacks empathy, or some combination of those.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 27, 2015 7:47 pm

What your mind “finds” is both questionable and irrelevant to this discussion.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 28, 2015 12:18 am

Aphan,
Let’s rewind, shall we?

Poor guy. Burdened with a disquieted mind, a dirty conscience, and disposable income!

Let me get this straight. It IS relevant for you to tell others what’s going on inside my head. It is NOT relevant for me to tell others what’s going on inside my own head. Surely I’m missing something, because I’ll be damned if that makes any rational sense.

JohnKnight
Reply to  bill hunter
December 28, 2015 2:30 pm

“Moving to non-fossil fuel energy would go along way toward undirtying my conscience for two reasons:
1) It would mean that I am passing on less of fossil fuel’s externalized costs in terms of climate impacts to future generations, and
2) Offers some hope of reduction in our foreign entanglements, particularly the Middle East.”
!) assumes severe “climate impacts on future generations due to use of fossil fuels”. You don’t say “in case there will be big problems for future generations due to atmospheric CO2”, you assume it. When challenged about that assumption, you played the “insurance” card”, so to speak, but you can’t manage to stay consistent, for when that was challenged, you went back to the assumption.
2) assumes that we have no hope of reducing “our foreign entanglements, particularly the Middle East”, without “moving to non-fossil fuel energy”, which implies that the people who steered this ship, so to speak, into such “entanglements” are still steering it . . but will somehow lose that status if we fork over lots of money to . .. the people steering it.
I tire of the shell game, sir.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 28, 2015 3:59 pm

JohnKnight,

You don’t say “in case there will be big problems for future generations due to atmospheric CO2”, you assume it.

Risk management involves making assumptions. There is no other way because empirical evidence of future events does not exist by definition.

… assumes that we have no hope of reducing “our foreign entanglements, particularly the Middle East”, without “moving to non-fossil fuel energy” …

Really? In what way did my statement, “Offers some hope of reduction in our foreign entanglements, particularly the Middle East” preclude the possibility of reducing tensions in the Middle East by some other means?

Aphan
Reply to  bill hunter
December 28, 2015 6:01 pm

BG Said- “Let me get this straight. It IS relevant for you to tell others what’s going on inside my head. It is NOT relevant for me to tell others what’s going on inside my own head. Surely I’m missing something, because I’ll be damned if that makes any rational sense.”
My word, you’re like a long winded bouncy ball that never lands in the same place twice. Let’s review-
BG said “I would gladly fork over 1% of my income in carbon taxes for the same peace of mind, with the added benefit of a cleaner conscience.”
AFTER which I said “Poor guy. Burdened with a disquieted mind, a dirty conscience, and disposable income! I myself do not suffer from any of those afflictions, but I can genuinely pity those who do. :)”
BECAUSE you indicated you wanted peace of mind (logically indicating you have an UNpeaceful mind=disquieted) and a “cleaner conscience” (something that needs to be cleaner is thus dirty).
So YOU told us what is going on in your head. I merely commented ON what you had already STATED-to someone else, who also seems concerned about your current state of mind. Your state of mind is only relevant to discussions about your state of mind. It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all.
THEN you came back with this-
BG “I’m of the mind that a person who doesn’t find some dirt in his or her conscience isn’t looking hard enough, isn’t being honest about what they see, lacks empathy, or some combination of those.”
“To which I replied that what your mind “finds” is both questionable and irrelevant to this discussion.”
It makes PERFECT rational sense. Personal opinions are ALWAYS questionable (doubtful as regards truth or quality) and your personal mental determinations (what your mind “finds”) regarding any person (including yourself) “who doesn’t find…” aren’t really relevant to any discussion that isn’t about that topic.
You seem to like to talk, a LOT, but many of the things you say are not based in reason and logic and thus do not support the claims you make or some of the conclusions you have drawn. Attempting to point this out to you has proven completely futile, and your constant gish galloping and off topic careening gets old really fast. If I wanted to converse with a hyperactive, long winded person who can’t stay on topic and bases every other comment on emotions like fear and guilt and hysteria, (vs facts and logic) all I have to do is say “Hi” to the 13 year old girl next door. I come to WUWT for conversations that ARE NOT like that.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 29, 2015 11:17 am

Aphan,

Your state of mind is only relevant to discussions about your state of mind. It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all.

I agree. However, my state of mind is apparently relevant to you for some reason:
Aphan
December 27, 2015 at 2:52 pm
One has to wonder why he didn’t just start with that instead of all the dancing and strawman building and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him. What did he hope to accomplish? What was his purpose? His tactics certainly do not win others to his position or engender trust or belief. Perhaps he just wanted to waste our time, but at least it increases traffic here at WUWT. 🙂

I’d ask why you feel compelled to speculate about my motives, but since “It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all,” and you “… come to WUWT for conversations that ARE NOT like that,” it would seem that you are bound by principle to not answer. However, I could be missing something or just being irrational again — not that it matters, right?
Right.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 29, 2015 2:42 pm

Once again Brandon Gates has demonstrated the inability to represent what someone else said accurately. Until he can do so, his conclusions about that person cannot be viewed as logical or rational because they are not based on facts/evidence. (So yes BG, you are missing something AND being irrational again)
Aphan said – “One has to wonder why he didn’t just start with that instead of all the dancing and strawman building and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him. What did he hope to accomplish? What was his purpose? His tactics certainly do not win others to his position or engender trust or belief. Perhaps he just wanted to waste our time, but at least it increases traffic here at WUWT. :)”
BG replied- “I’d ask why you feel compelled to speculate about my motives, but since “It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all,” and you “… come to WUWT for conversations that ARE NOT like that,” it would seem that you are bound by principle to not answer. However, I could be missing something or just being irrational again — not that it matters, right?”
Now, you’ll notice BG uses quotation marks to indicate that he’s referencing something that I said previously. Unfortunately, he selectively chose parts of TWO different statements I made (in different contexts) and combined them together in a way that does not represent what I actually said, either time, accurately.
(Aphan December 28, 2015 at 6:01 pm )
(Aphan speaking) “So YOU told us what is going on in your head. I merely commented ON what you had already STATED-to someone else, who also seems concerned about your current state of mind. Your state of mind is only relevant to discussions about your state of mind. It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all.”
(Aphan speaking again, later on, about something else) “If I wanted to converse with a hyperactive, long winded person who can’t stay on topic and bases every other comment on emotions like fear and guilt and hysteria, (vs facts and logic) all I have to do is say “Hi” to the 13 year old girl next door. I come to WUWT for conversations that ARE NOT like that.”
As anyone can see for themselves, I made a comment about what HE SAID about his state of mind, in a conversation with someone else, about his state of mind=relevant to THAT conversation, but obviously his state of mind is completely irrelevant to conversations about climate science, or vegetation production or anything scientific at all. ( only logic I’m using there)
I ALSO stated that I come to WUWT for conversations with people who are NOT -“hyperactive”, “long winded” “can’t stay on topic” and who don’t base “every other comment on emotions like fear and guilt and hysteria, (vs facts and logic)”. I NEVER said that
Now, I DID express curiosity about HIS ACTIONS-Why he didn’t just start out here explaining his positions instead of dancing around and building strawmen and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him.
But to speculate is to -“form a theory or conjecture about a subject without firm evidence.” After pointing out his exact behavior here, I asked two questions -“What did he hope to accomplish?” and “What was his purpose?” And the ONLY speculation I offered in response to my own questions was “Perhaps he just wanted to waste our time”. Dictionary- “Perhaps-used when one does not wish to be too definite or assertive in the expression of an opinion.”
It is perfectly normal, and logical (and scientific) to observe something-such as how someone behaves-and wonder what was the purpose for that behavior? What did the person behaving so hope to accomplish with that behavior? But because I cannot possibly KNOW either one of those things (I lack firm evidence on either one) I refrained from making any statement that could be viewed as a definitive or assertive “theory or conjecture” on the matter.
Brandon, you have irritated almost every single person you’ve engaged with here because you do not clearly state outright and directly what YOUR position on any given subject is, and you constantly come to conclusions about other people say that are unsupported by the evidence of their words, and thus illogical and irrational. This does not move conversations forward. It is irritating as crap and thus is not constructive. And your behavior fits a the following definition of a “concern troll” -“A concern troll is a… user whose actual point of view is opposed to the one that the troll claims to hold. The concern troll posts in Web forums devoted to its declared point of view and attempts to sway the group’s actions or opinions while claiming to share their goals, but with professed “concerns”. The goal is to sow fear, uncertainty and doubt within the group.”
If you’re not a concern troll, stop acting like one. If you keep acting like one, I’ll ask the mods to treat you like one.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 29, 2015 6:00 pm

Aphan,

Now, I DID express curiosity about HIS ACTIONS-Why he didn’t just start out here explaining his positions instead of dancing around and building strawmen and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him.

And, not that it’s relevant according to you, I gave you my answer already: December 27, 2015 at 9:40 pm

One has to wonder why he didn’t just start with that instead of all the dancing and strawman building and finger pointing when no one would attack his strawmen with him.

Ok, so a few things. I didn’t have a very good opinion of Dr. Lindzen before I read this essay, and each re-reading of it only serves to reinforce my negative opinion. He makes a number of arguments I consider flawed and that I think someone with his intelligence and resume wouldn’t give in error. In short, I suspect his motives, but I generally make a point of not imputing motive because,
1) Motives are difficult to discern and all but impossible to “prove”,
2) I think it’s better to attack the argument not the man, and
3) arguing that someone who holds contrarian views on AGW is an industry shill (or anything in the that neighborhood) is literally pouring gasoline on a fire that simply doesn’t need the encouragement.

What did he hope to accomplish? What was his purpose?

I mainly wanted to see if anyone on your “side” of the fence saw the same thing AND was willing to speak to it.

Did you miss that post?

As anyone can see for themselves, I made a comment about what HE SAID about his state of mind, in a conversation with someone else, about his state of mind=relevant to THAT conversation, but obviously his state of mind is completely irrelevant to conversations about climate science, or vegetation production or anything scientific at all.

Yes obviously, my state of mind does not affect the truth value of a scientific — or any — statement. I can “feel” that 2 + 2 = 5 all I want, but that won’t make it so.
However, your original post …

Aphan
December 27, 2015 at 7:47 pm
What your mind “finds” is both questionable and irrelevant to this discussion.

… didn’t contain the qualifiers, “climate science, or vegetation production or anything scientific at all”. When you first introduced those qualifiers …

Aphan
December 28, 2015 at 6:01 pm
Your state of mind is only relevant to discussions about your state of mind. It bears no relevance to climate science or vegetation production or anything scientific at all.
Brandon Gates
December 29, 2015 at 11:17 am
I agree.

… I agreed with you.

If you’re not a concern troll, stop acting like one. If you keep acting like one, I’ll ask the mods to treat you like one.

I don’t consider myself a concern troll. If Anthony or the mods would like me to amend my posting behavior, I welcome them to request it of me.
As you have an obvious problem with my posting behavior, I would suggest that it’s best if you simply ignored me.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 29, 2015 8:02 pm

“I mainly wanted to see if anyone on your “side” of the fence saw the same thing AND was willing to speak to it.”
I’m not even going to speculate, I’m going to ASK you to state, precisely and clearly, what “side” of what “fence” you are referring to.

Reply to  Aphan
December 29, 2015 9:01 pm

Wriggle worm wriggles.
Deny
Divert
Confuse

Aphan
Reply to  knutesea
December 29, 2015 9:22 pm

*gasp* Sounds like TROLL behavior to me.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 30, 2015 8:28 am

Aphan,

I’m not even going to speculate, I’m going to ASK you to state, precisely and clearly, what “side” of what “fence” you are referring to.

People who argue that rising CO2 levels are not a credible environmental/economic risk, and/or may be a net benefit, and therefore oppose policies designed to reduce emissions.
IOW, the opposite of “alarmists”, “climastrologists”, “chicken-littles”, “envirowingnuts”, “warmunists”, “warmistas” etc.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 30, 2015 9:24 am

Brandon Gates (replying to Aphan)

I’m not even going to speculate, I’m going to ASK you to state, precisely and clearly, what “side” of what “fence” you are referring to.

People who argue that rising CO2 levels are not a credible environmental/economic risk, and/or may be a net benefit, and therefore oppose policies designed to reduce emissions.
IOW, the opposite of “alarmists”, “climastrologists”, “chicken-littles”, “envirowingnuts”, “warmunists”, “warmistas” etc.

Brandon: You have created two sets of descriptions of “typical stereotypes. Those descriptions do describe two Venn diagrams of stereotypical behavior (belief systems that in turn proscribe life styles and a desire to force those decision of other peoples’ life choices, i.e, two “religions”. One of freedom and choice. One of dictatorship and intolerance and slavish obedience to the external demands of an unconscious, unaccountable bureaucratic government.)
But your two sentences did NOT tell Aphan which closed minded loop of the two Venn diagram circles you place yourself in!

Brandon Gates
Reply to  bill hunter
December 30, 2015 9:35 am

RACookPE1978,

One of freedom and choice. One of dictatorship and intolerance and slavish obedience to the external demands of an unconscious, unaccountable bureaucratic government.
But your two sentences did NOT tell Aphan which closed minded loop of the two Venn diagram circles you place yourself!

Aphan’s question was about my binary categorization, not yours.

Aphan
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 30, 2015 6:01 pm

BG- “People who argue that rising CO2 levels are not a credible environmental/economic risk, and/or may be a net benefit, and therefore oppose policies designed to reduce emissions. IOW, the opposite of “alarmists”, “climastrologists”, “chicken-littles”, “envirowingnuts”, “warmunists”, “warmistas” etc.”
False dilemma-“A false dilemma (also called false dichotomy, false binary, black-and-white thinking, bifurcation, denying a conjunct, the either–or fallacy, fallacy of exhaustive hypotheses, the fallacy of false choice, the fallacy of the false alternative, or the fallacy of the excluded middle) is a type of informal fallacy that involves a situation in which only limited alternatives are considered, when in fact there is at least one additional option.”
Brandon, ANY “binary categorization”, is obviously an example of flawed logic if there is at least one other possible option. For example, I personally don’t fit all the stated parameters of the first category, nor do I fit the opposite of all those things, so I can only conclude that I myself present at least that one additional option.
It has been my experience in this forum that there are many different opinions and positions held by those who post here. In fact, people who fit the definition you posted, or the exact opposite of it, are truly rare, fringe individuals here, and are not representative of the vast majority. You came into this blog with expectations based on that flawed conclusion that there are only twotypes of people in the global warming debate. And that is exactly why you could have only expected one of two illogical reactions from posters here to your personal opinion about Dr. Lindzen- either vocal support for it, or vocal support against it.
BG said “I mainly wanted to see if anyone on your “side” of the fence saw the same thing AND was willing to speak to it.” [“it” being what HE personally concluded from Dr. Lindzen’s post].
In order to make that statement BG, you must have already made the following, illogical, assumptions:
1) that everyone at WUWT is on the same “side” that I, Aphan, belong to.
AND
2) If no one speaks to it- then a) they did not see the same thing I did b) they saw the same thing, but were unwilling to speak to it.
Since no one spoke to it (except BusterBrown who was identified as a troll and banned) you then attempted to try to force people to a) see the same thing you did. When no one agreed that they saw the same thing you did, your self-limiting thinking forced you to assume b) that they DID actually see it, but were unwilling to admit it.
Now, what is interesting is that at one point BG you said-
“Ok, so a few things. I didn’t have a very good opinion of Dr. Lindzen before I read this essay, and each re-reading of it only serves to reinforce my negative opinion. He makes a number of arguments I consider flawed and that I think someone with his intelligence and resume wouldn’t give in error. In short, I suspect his motives, but I generally make a point of not imputing motive because,
1) Motives are difficult to discern and all but impossible to “prove”,
2) I think it’s better to attack the argument not the man, and
3) arguing that someone who holds contrarian views on AGW is an industry shill (or anything in the that neighborhood) is literally pouring gasoline on a fire that simply doesn’t need the encouragement.”
BG, it’s obvious from your statements that you knew better than to attack the man, but what you did insteaad was create a strawman argument (one that Dr. Lindzen didn’t make himself or you could have just quoted him doing it) and proceeded to attack the strawman.
I tried to point out what you were doing over and over and over again. Others here tried to get you to listen to WHAT I was actually saying-not what you thought I was attempting to DO. Brandon, the flawed way that you THINK about people is revealed in the flawed way you TALK/respond to the people here. You are logical one moment, and irrational and illogical the next. Your assumptions about people appear to drive most of your responses to them, because you only selectively respond to SOME of the things people say (and taken out of context) rather than to everything they said. Context matters Brandon.
Something that I hope you come to accept, whether you like it or not is this: What people say exactly on the internet is the only logical evidence you can use for or against that person, because once it passes through your mental, interpretive filter, if it comes out with any modifications, at all, it instantly becomes YOURS, not theirs.
I’m done explaining this to you, and everyone else here already knows and accepts it.

Aphan
Reply to  bill hunter
December 30, 2015 6:14 pm

Brandon-I replied to you, but I started a new subthread because the scrolling is making me insane.

Mike Singleton
Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 10:22 am

Brandon,
How about showing a time series of the total flux of Carbon through the atmosphere, or are there no propaganda sites with a picture that you can copy and paste?

Brandon Gates
Reply to  Mike Singleton
December 26, 2015 1:03 pm

Mike Singleton,

How about showing a time series of the total flux of Carbon through the atmosphere, or are there no propaganda sites with a picture that you can copy and paste?

I consider using loaded terminology to be a propaganda technique.

Reply to  Brandon Gates
December 26, 2015 12:35 pm

Dear Brandon
Are you still insisting that every wiggle on a climate temperature curve needs to have a specific driver (which of course can only be CO2)?
Are you clinging so hard to your “right” to be wilfully ignorant of, to religiously scrub your brain of any knowledge of, dissipative chaotic-nonlinear systems which comprise most of the universe? That these systems change without “forcing” as was simply and elegantly shown by Ed Lorenz in 1962?
The scientific community is in denial of chaos and nonlinearity. The AGW fiasco is the catastrophe to which this denial has led.

Brandon Gates
Reply to  philsalmon
December 26, 2015 1:43 pm

philsalmon,

Are you still insisting that every wiggle on a climate temperature curve needs to have a specific driver (which of course can only be CO2)?

Are you still beating your wife?
a) Every temperature change must be in response to some physical mechanism.
b) Even though our powers of observation with respect to (a) are limited, it’s bleeding obvious that CO2 is not causing every wiggle.

Are you clinging so hard to your “right” to be wilfully ignorant of, to religiously scrub your brain of any knowledge of, dissipative chaotic-nonlinear systems which comprise most of the universe? That these systems change without “forcing” as was simply and elegantly shown by Ed Lorenz in 1962?

Are you still beating your wife again?
Lorenz (1963) “Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow”: http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Deterministic_63.pdf
Yes, I’ve read it … several times. Let’s start with the final sentence of the abstract: The feasibility of very-long range weather forecasting is examined in light of these results.
If you’re of the mind that a butterfly can cause temps to change on the order of a few degrees (up or down) over the course of 50-100 years, and that such a move would be completely unpredictable, it really boggles my mind that you’d be a-ok with doubling the concentration of a radiatively-active molecule in the atmosphere without so much as a second thought.

Reply to  philsalmon
December 27, 2015 12:16 am

So you read DNF 63, but clearly didn’t get the message; you can lead a horse to water etc.
That argument about butterfly wing sensitivity and CO2 is the only only on used by warmistas to reply to the chaos-nonlinearity issue, last time about 5 years ago by your colleague / alter-ego R Gates. This argument is clearly not the result of any serious though about the issue. The merest glance at the history of CO2 levels shows it to be false. CO2 in the atmosphere has been many times higher that the present level for most of the Phanerozoic. Where is the evidence of super-sensitivity to CO2? Nowhere. CO2 has always followed, not led, temperatures.
“They have eyes but do not see,
Ears but do not hear”

Reply to  philsalmon
December 27, 2015 12:20 am

So you read DNF 63, but clearly didn’t get the message; you can lead a horse to water etc.
That argument about butterfly wing sensitivity and CO2 is the only one used by warmistas to reply to the chaos-nonlinearity issue, last time about 5 years ago by your colleague / alter-ego R Gates. This argument is clearly not the result of any serious thought about the issue. The merest glance at the history of CO2 levels shows it to be false. CO2 in the atmosphere has been many times higher that the present level for most of the Phanerozoic. Where is the evidence of super-sensitivity to CO2? Nowhere. CO2 has always followed, not led, temperatures.
“They have eyes but do not see,
Ears but do not hear”

RichardLH