The End of Food


Guest essay by Eric Worrall

“So, you’re awake. But you’re still going to die”. The first words I heard spoken by my surgeon, waking from general anaesthetic, after a horrific operation to try to repair the mess created by my ruptured appendix.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m very grateful to the surgeon, whose extraordinary skill undoubtably saved my life. But that day I believed his warning. I thought I was going to die. After all, he was a highly qualified surgeon, a credible source of information.

I learned something that week about credibility and evidence. People who follow WUWT might be aware of the flimsiness of the evidence behind sensationalist climate warnings. But most people don’t pay much attention to climate issues. Many of them remain susceptible to authoritative sounding scare stories.

Consider the following;

The world faces widespread food shortages due to global warming: Crops will become scarce as droughts ravage Africa and Asia

Widespread water shortages caused by rising global temperatures could lead to food shortages and mass migration, an expert has warned.

The head of the World Meteorological Society, Michel Jarraud has warned that of all the threats posed by a warming climate, shrinking water supplies are the most serious.

It is predicted that by 2025, some 2.8 billion people will live in ‘water scarce’ areas – a huge rise from the 1.6 billion who do now.

Parts of Africa, the Middle East and Asia will be worst affected, with pockets of Australia, the US and southern Europe also predicted to suffer.

Mr Jarraud told Carbon Brief that although it has been a few years since a spate of major food crises, ‘all the ingredients are there for a food crisis to come back on a very large scale.’

Read more:

Why isn’t this warning credible? For one thing, climate models have demonstrated no skill whatsoever at predicting climate on a global scale, let alone a regional scale. So making solemn announcements about specific future regional climate events, based on models which cannot demonstrate predictive skill, seems more than a little pointless.

But you have to know that climate models are useless at prediction, to be able to conclude the warning isn’t credible. People don’t have time to research everything they are told. If someone credible tells a person seriously bad news, about an issue of which they have little prior knowledge, many people simply accept what they are told.

I didn’t die – so my surgeon was wrong. Maybe I was just very lucky, though I believe there was another factor working in my favour. Everyone on my father’s side of the family live to an obscenely old age, and rarely get ill. The surgeon told me my appendix had ruptured at least a week before I was admitted to hospital. For most of that week, my immune system fought gangrene and peritonitis to a standstill, doing such a good job, I didn’t even know I was sick.

Even with experience and skill, prediction is a difficult. In my opinion, an authoritative sounding prediction based on unskilled models is downright reprehensible.

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December 25, 2015 4:27 am

I’m pretty sure your surgeon was right. He may have had a problem with the timing. (And I kinda wonder why he would say that if he knew you were listening.)

Reply to  Carl Brannen
December 25, 2015 6:21 am

A famous doctor once said “Most patients don’t realize that ten out ten of them will die.”
It’s all about timing.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  cedarhill
December 25, 2015 6:55 am

That’s right. In the course of human life, nobody gets out alive!

Reply to  cedarhill
December 25, 2015 9:36 am

I like to tell people who are not listening closely, “Isn’t it a warning to us that everybody who ate green peas during the Civil War died?”
After we are actually born and until we take our first breath, we are superhuman, completely independent of outside energy sources. After that, life is all an extended dependency. Sigh.

Reply to  cedarhill
December 25, 2015 6:18 pm

I knew a physician who opened up the abdomen of a man who had a lethal case of gas gangrene. Realizing the futility of doing any kind of traditional medical intervention, (and also because this was in Mexico), he ordered his assistant to run to a nearby store and buy a 5-lb. bag of white sugar. They spread 5 pounds of sugar throughout the patient’s abdomen, and the patient fully recovered.

Reply to  cedarhill
December 25, 2015 10:51 pm

If they send a man to Mars, he will be the first person in the history of the earth to get out of here alive.

Reply to  cedarhill
December 26, 2015 3:36 pm

Thanks for the amazing story.
Microb Pathog. 2012 Jan;52(1):85-91. doi: 10.1016/j.micpath.2011.10.008. Epub 2011 Nov 4.
Sugar inhibits the production of the toxins that trigger clostridial gas gangrene.
Méndez MB1, Goñi A, Ramirez W, Grau RR.

Reply to  Carl Brannen
December 25, 2015 10:57 am

I’m Immortal……….so far

Jeff Stanley
Reply to  Andy
December 26, 2015 4:13 am

It’s like the guy who fell out of a fifty story building. As he passed the thirtieth floor, someone leaning out the window asked, “How’s it going?”
“So far, so good.”

Reply to  Andy
December 26, 2015 3:39 pm

It’s like the guy who jumped from the top of a fifty story building because he thought he was the last man on earth. As he passed the thirtieth floor, he head a telephone ringing.

Reply to  Andy
January 1, 2016 2:42 pm

#1 cause of death is birth,

Steven Miller
Reply to  Carl Brannen
December 25, 2015 11:38 am

I had a very similar situation. I had been having abdominal pain for a couple of weeks which I had been trying to ignore. It got better for a while and then took a turn for the worse. When I started changing color my wife who is a nurse became alarmed and insisted that I go to the urgent care. I waited all day at the urgent care while every crying child with the sniffles went ahead of me. They finally took some blood and when the results came back and they took a closer look at my x-rays… the staff went into panic mode and insisted that I go to the hospital immediately in an ambulance. I refused and drove myself home and my wife took me in to the hospital.
They were already assembling a “surgical team” at the hospital when I arrived. Another set of pictures was taken and my wife heard a doctor exclaim, “Whoa!” when he looked at them. He then apologized to her. I asked the head surgeon if they couldn’t just put me on some antibiotics and let me come back to get things patched up when the infection cleared up. He said I would die if we tried that. I didn’t take him seriously because I had been working as a professional firefighter for over 20 years and have heard the same type of warnings from paramedics over and over to get people to do what they want. I was given no alternatives so I went ahead with the surgery.
To make a long story shorter. My appendix had been ruptured for a week and I had developed a pretty bad infection. They opened me up from hip bone to hip bone, pulled a bunch of my innards out, washed them off, irrigated what was left inside, loaded me full of antibiotics, stuffed everything back in, sewed me back up and called it good.
Surprisingly I never felt a lot of pain. My infection cleared up and since my wife is a nurse… they let me go home in just a few days after initially estimating I would be there for over a week. And if anyone really wants to hear a more colorful version of the event I will have my wife write something.
I took away a completely different lesson that does not have a good correlation with the global warming scam. Despite all the warnings of my impending doom from panicky sounding health care professionals I never did take this thing very seriously until a year later. I had a “probationary” firefighter working under me. He told me that his dad who was the same age as me had died recently. When I asked him what happened he told me a story very similar to my own experience only his dad died from the infection. Did I have better doctors, medicine, treatment, a stronger immune system, or was it just dumb luck? It wasn’t until then that I realized that the doctors weren’t kidding. I really could have died.
I had a dangerous job. I jumped off of mountain cliffs for fun into windy conditions with my hang gliders, along with a lot of other dangerous past times, but until the “probationary” told me his tearful story about his dad I never really thought about any of this stuff catching up with me. So now I do try and more carefully consider warnings that I am given; but I am still not a fool.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Steven Miller
December 26, 2015 1:44 am

“Steven Miller
December 25, 2015 at 11:38 am”
The father of a workmate in New Zealand died the very next day from septicemia after cutting his arm on some rusty guttering while working (He was a builder). I was recently very ill from suspected food poisoning and a few months before pneumonia. Can’t be too careful.

James W
Reply to  Steven Miller
December 26, 2015 4:42 am

You’ll die of stubbornness, but they can put “He was no fool.” on your tombstone.

Reply to  Steven Miller
January 1, 2016 3:04 pm

Basically I’ve come to the conclusion when your time is up, nothing is going to save you, and similarly if it’s not your time, you’ll probably be the only survivor of a plane wreck.
About 5 years before he died, my dad had an abdominal aortic aneurysm, and lost half his blood according to doctors. The operation to repair the aneurysm was successful.
The doctor who operated on him later told my wife, “If it wasn’t for his heart and lungs, he never would have made it through the surgery.”
Dad had smoked unfiltered cigarettes for about 45 years, and wasn’t in the best physical condition.
Go figure!

Reply to  Carl Brannen
December 25, 2015 7:44 pm

However, I know someone who was told four separate times, to make her will be cause she wouldn’t survive more than a day or two. Four times, four different illnesses, each time she told the doctor “how do you know, you aren’t God.” So yes we all die, but nobody know when. Everybody know we all die, so I am not sure what your point is.

Lank the knife
Reply to  Carl Brannen
December 25, 2015 9:00 pm

You were very lucky that your surgeon was not Australian Medical Association President Dr Brian Owler. Owler is a climate change alarmist who believes AGW sceptics like yourself are ‘scumbags’. Some of his followers advocate limited medical attention for sceptics and he may have ‘forgotten’ to sew you back up if he knew who you were.

Reply to  Lank the knife
January 1, 2016 3:06 pm


December 25, 2015 4:28 am

Your surgeon did something very unethical and indeed, you had grounds to sue him is this conversation was witnessed.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 25, 2015 5:54 am

Well, there are what might be called mechanical defenses in the peritoneal cavity which serve autonomously to “wall-off” intestinal ruptures and abscesses (notably those of diverticula), and appendiceal infectious inflammation and rupture can present with such defenses well in train, temporarily limiting the spread and effects of enteric integrity failures to a surprising extent, said extent commonly discerned only at the time of surgery.
I have no precise idea of how frequently an appendicitis case will so present, but insofar as I know, it’s not a common phenomenon. Mr. Worrall may have lucked out in this fashion.
When physical findings, lab values, and diagnostic imaging led to a diagnosis either appendicitis infectious diverticulitis, I commonly recommended a “belt-and-suspenders” initiation of antibiotic treatment with parenteral ceftriaxone (Rocephin) and metronidazole (Flagyl) while blood cultures were cooking. The surgeons to whose services I admitted these cases never complained, and outcomes didn’t suffer because I’d pressed for such treatment modalities.

Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 25, 2015 8:39 am

We are equal in one way. We don’t know the future. Even the best in their respective fields are talking about probability when they make predictions. Even your eventual death is best understood as a probability (very very high correlation to the predicted outcome). The future is not known. You don’t need to understand climate models to notice the alarmists aren’t careful at all to explain their predictions as calculated probabilities. When IPCC says 95% certain – they just make up that number. Do they explain how they arrive at 95%? Do they show their math?

Pete Smith
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 25, 2015 10:41 am

I was much like this. Easter 1995, I was home from university. I had a non-specific abdominal pain, so went to the local surgery. Doctor said it didn’t look like appendicitis, but if I’d not improved in a couple of days, to make an appointment.
Nothing improved, so a few days later, phoned to make an appointment, and was met by the receptionist telling me that I would not be seen under any circumstances.
Shrugged it off, and carried on for another week. Went for a walk one day, and felt an explosive pain in my stomach, but carried on still.
Easter Sunday morning, I couldn’t stand up straight, and my stomach had gone huge. Got to A&E, went downhill rapidly. Reacted badly to general anaesthetic, and had to be put into a coma for 24 hours while I was weaned off it.
Long story short, after an unstable white blood count and unstable temperature, 3 weeks later had an CAT scan (dates it there!) to find an abscess under my diaphragm, containing ~500ml of pus, which was removed via a hole between 2 ribs.
At that point, I realised that a local anaesthetic would remove pain, but not sensation. The feeling of having a large bore *something* jammed between two ribs felt like someone shoving a cube of beef onto a kebab skewer.
They used a large (100ml) syringe to remove vast quantities of gunge from my insides.
Merry christmas all!

David, UK
Reply to  emsnews
December 25, 2015 6:21 am

@emsnews I’m sure surgeons everywhere would love to know your real name, so they can be sure to avoid ever having you as a patient, lest they may say or do something that gets them sued. Sheesh.

Reply to  David, UK
December 25, 2015 6:45 am

Telling someone he’s gonna die soon and being wrong is a serious mistake from a surgeon. For real. Almost as bad as telling they will be OK when they’ll die.

Reply to  David, UK
December 25, 2015 9:36 am

“Telling someone he’s gonna die soon and being wrong is a serious mistake from a surgeon. ”
So, rather than telling them his real prognosis and doing what he can (though he doesn’t expect it to help) he should either lie about their assessment and rose-color it, or not try to do what he can so that his prognostications come true?

Reply to  David, UK
December 26, 2015 6:05 am

When someone is struggling to stay alive, telling that person that he is going to die is wrong. Take it from someone who has attended to dying people: you give them optimism or gentle words, you don’t tell them they are doomed.
Also, you never know when someone will come back from the edge!

Reply to  David, UK
December 26, 2015 1:35 pm

So, rather than telling them his real prognosis

Exactly, tell a REAL prognosis, not a wild guess. If you tell me my prognosis and you’re plain wrong about it I can’t much value the prognosis you gave. Wrong prognosis is also a basis for wrong treatment, so it is not a thing to be taken lightly.
So if you can’t say, say can’t say.

Reply to  David, UK
December 26, 2015 6:55 pm

It’s not unethical to give a patient an honest opinion about their prognosis. Unwise, perhaps. However, unless it’s a deliberate lie, then there is no ethical breach. Lying to spare harm during a hopeless fight is also not a serious breech, but it is actually the more ethically dubious option. Giving an honest opinion is the best, and straight is better than couching it in fine language.
Hugs, patients surprise you, and any doctor who can say they have never been wrong is a newbie or a liar.

Bill Powers
Reply to  emsnews
December 25, 2015 2:27 pm

I think you should be looking for the moral of the story and not who to sue next. Go back and read Eric’s last sentence under the dull light of CAGW rather than a surgeons bedside manners.

Reply to  Bill Powers
December 25, 2015 4:52 pm

Surgeons are notorious for having terrible bedside manners. That’s why most of their patients are unconscious.

Ernest Bush
Reply to  Bill Powers
December 25, 2015 5:51 pm

– Its the one time someone can get away with stabbing you and cutting off body parts. Anybody else would get prosecuted.

Brian H
Reply to  Bill Powers
December 26, 2015 11:34 pm

Yeah, doctors are caring and compassionate. Surgeons score high on sociopathy. Truth.

Reply to  Brian H
December 27, 2015 12:13 am

Writes Brian H:

Yeah, doctors are caring and compassionate. Surgeons score high on sociopathy. Truth.

Hrm. Being myself a physician, and having known a boatload of cutters over the past half-century or so, I’d give the “sociopathy” business a pass.
And while I like the “caring and compassionate” P.R. image for us Marcus Welby types, I doubt that you’re familiar with the levels of misanthropy common among the average hospital’s Department of Medicine membership.

There is no body cavity that cannot be reached with a number fourteen needle and a good strong arm.

― Samuel Shem, The House of God (1978)

December 25, 2015 4:42 am

Unfortunately, the whole of the media in the West seems obsessed by needing to predict everything for their fearful readers, who need to know everything about everything with utter exactitude.
Well, do they? Or is that simply the media being lazy in their understanding of their fellow human beings? Or are they shaping them to crave that, as it suits the purpose of their moguls?
Where ‘the end of food’ is concerned, I prefer to ask a simple question: ‘how much food, per human alive, has the world produced the past 100 years?’
That question should tell you, in the round, assuming no catastrophic events like enormous volcanoes allied to the sun going totally quiet taking place, what the prospects are most likely to be in the next 25 years. Of course, if population goes up exponentially, then the productivity increases required to maintain necessary per capita production levels become ever harder.
So the question prefer to ask is this: ‘Is there any reason currently why the per capita food production achieved by the world’s humans will not continue to be satisfactory in the next 25 years?’
That question allows you to manage risk effectively, whilst remaining sanguine, optimistic and grounded.
Of course the question must be examined rigorously and no doubt key assumptions may need to be made.
But if the data of the past 100 years is satisfactory, then seeking out the reasons why it won’t continue to be so seems, to me at least, a way to keep our leaders, our experts and our fellow citizens in a happier place……

Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
Reply to  rtj1211
December 25, 2015 8:26 am

It isn’t just the raw production numbers that matter; it’s also the ability to transport food to areas which aren’t producing enough. There have always been local and regional disruptions in food production. 100 years ago there wasn’t enough transportation capability to compensate for a large regional shortage; today there is, as long as local authorities allow it to happen.

Power Grab
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
December 25, 2015 11:02 am

“…as long as local authorities allow it to happen.” <– BINGO!
You know, as long as I have been aware that predictions of overpopulation and starvation have been publicized, they have always turned out to be false. From where I sit, it appears that having plenty of people on the planet means you have plenty of people to produce and distribute food.

Mark luhman
Reply to  Alan Watt, Climate Denialist Level 7
December 28, 2015 6:11 pm

Power Grab To the most part we can thank the gallons of fuel that allow us to produce and move all that food.

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  rtj1211
December 25, 2015 12:58 pm

It’s all about News Headlines.
Which makes the news channels rather useless at their own hands. Karma at work I suppose.

December 25, 2015 4:44 am

IIRC, the theory is that more CO2 means more atmospheric water vapor, where water vapor is supposed to have a multiplier effect since it is a far more potent greenhouse gas. There was supposed to be a positive feedback loop between water vapor and CO2, which would spiral out of control and wipe us all out. However more water vapor means more wet stuff, not more dry and droughts. Maybe I don’t fully understand the CAGW hypothesis, but whenever I hear “drought” I automatically dismiss it as a consequence of CO2-induced warming based on their own theory. Am I wrong about how the theory is supposed to work? I quit believing it a dozen years ago anyway but I’m still curious how they come up with their claims, it just seems like they’re throwing everything at the wall now.

Craig Loehle
Reply to  Notanist
December 25, 2015 6:35 am

The meme about more rain and more droughts both happening arises from the Hadley circulation. This circulation at the equator gives both the rain belt (think Amazon jungle) and as the air descends the dry zones of the tropics. According to the models, this cycle should intensify with global warming giving both more rain (where it rains) and more drought (where it is dry). This does NOT apply where most of the people in the world live (like North America, China, Eurasia). There is also the little problem that the models don’t do the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone correctly, so their forecasts of how it should change…well.

Reply to  Craig Loehle
December 25, 2015 6:35 pm

Dr Loehle says: the models don’t do the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone correctly
Thanks for this, something I have not seen discussed online. Could you advise how readers might explore this further.

Brian H
Reply to  Craig Loehle
December 26, 2015 11:39 pm

Also, the troposphere mid zone is much drier than AGW sez. The H2O feedback is a fraction of that assumed.

December 25, 2015 4:47 am

Maybe this article should be called “death and (carbon) taxes”

December 25, 2015 4:54 am

“Even with experience and skill, prediction is a difficult.”
Prediction is especially difficult if it is a prediction about the future!

Reply to  markstoval
December 25, 2015 5:42 am

I predict Coolidge will win.
See how easy that was? ;o)

December 25, 2015 4:56 am

Since several years back, I always end up with a smile on my face when I hear/read about meteorologists trying to predict the future further ahead than five days … 10 years …?

Reply to  SasjaL
December 25, 2015 6:30 am

Wednesday ALL four local TV stations predicted a light snowfall, 1/2 to 1 inch max, for Thursday. One station even cited the results of three different weather models indicating the most we would get was 1 inch. By noon on Thursday we had 8 inches on the ground it was still snowing at 1 inch per hour and there were NO snow plows on any roads other than the major highways and interstate highways. News at noon indicated that there were over 100 traffic accidents. As I had put off buying needed medicine I had to drive the 1/2 mile on an unplowed road to the drugstore and counted nine cars off of the road and in ditches.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  usurbrain
December 25, 2015 7:03 am

Meanwhile, last evening I sat outside in my back yard under the full moon with several friends. All of us were in shorts and t shirts enjoying a peaceful time around my fire pit. BTW, the fire was for aesthetics only as it was around 75F. Couldn’t ask for a better evening or weather.

Reply to  usurbrain
December 25, 2015 7:55 am

Obviously, they didn’t polish their crystal balls well/hard enough …
A few inches of snow and below freezing wouldn’t hurt here in the middle between Stockholm and Oslo …

Reply to  usurbrain
December 25, 2015 11:49 am

Look at the actual forecast where the TV weathercasters depend on somebody writing the script from the forecast which gives percentage chances over a particular area. Many of them have never read the forecast or learned how to interpret it. i.e. 50% chance of rain up to 1 in. That can mean anything from scattered sprinkles over the whole region to drenching thunderstorms delivering a few inches over limited areas.`The total rain averaged over the area is quite likely to be an inch. The area getting rain in 24 hours is quite likely to be 50%. It is a pretty vague forecast which basically means it’s not going to be dry and it’s not going to flood. Check out the window before you leave.
Around central PA the forecasters have finally caught on and highly emphasize that the local rain or snow depends on EXACTY where the front travels and what the temps are on either side of it. They’ve gotten burned so many times that if it’s anything but sunshine coming they put the weather map on screen and show a projected track for it, like a hurricane forecast!

chris moffatt
December 25, 2015 4:59 am

How much more water vapor can the atmosphere hold once the Relative Humidity has reached 100% as it did here in rural Virginia yesterday with a temperature of 75F?
I think Eric’s surgeon was simply being wryly humorous. His meaning “I saved you this time but you’re going to kick off eventually from something or other anyway”. Can a patient sue a skilled surgeon merely because the patient doesn’t get the small joke?

Samuel C. Cogar
Reply to  chris moffatt
December 25, 2015 5:38 am

Chris, the percent (%) of Relative Humidity is a function of the air temperature. So, if the temperature in rural Virginia increases to 85F today and the Relative Humidity remains at 100% then there will be more water vapor in the air than there was yesterday.

Reply to  chris moffatt
December 25, 2015 8:51 am

Some jokes are simply less funny than others. That one reminds me of this exchange just before hand surgery::
PATIENT: Will I be able to play the violin?
SURGEON: Oh, you’re a violinist?
PATIENT: No, but I thought it would be nice to play the violin.

Reply to  chris moffatt
December 25, 2015 9:04 am

Yet another candidate for “Worst Surgery Joke:” During administration of ether to a sedate, elderly minister (true story):
REV. PATIENT: Hey, Doc, do you know how to make holy water?
SURGEON: No, how?
REV. PATIENT: Put it on the stove and boil the Hell out of it.
I still think Eric’s doctor wins the prize.

Mark luhman
Reply to  chris moffatt
December 28, 2015 6:14 pm

At a 100% humidity you are in a fog and the moister in the air begins to condense out, and cover just about everything.

December 25, 2015 5:03 am

“So making solemn announcements about specific future regional climate events, based on models which cannot demonstrate predictive skill, seems more than a little pointless.”
The point of such solemn announcements is to frighten the populace, so they are hardly pointless. They are, at the very least, unfair; and, they are probably unethical.

Reply to  firetoice2014
December 29, 2015 12:55 am

If the person making the claim/prediction is aware they’re simply being alarmist and there’s no tangible evidence to support their claim, it’s unethical, and perhaps criminal; no different than shouting “Fire!” in a crowded auditorium, knowingly selling a horse with bad teeth, or snake oil to a sick person.
The problem is these people have been allowed to claim ignorance rather than malice as an excuse. It’s remarkable that society will excuse a con-man after the fact when he claims “ignorance” and lack of skill, since they themselves can’t predict the weather either. They willingly believe the incredible, then excuse the perpetrator afterwards because his claims were incredible to begin with. P.T. Barnum had it right, it seems as if people not only tolerate being lied to, they enjoy it.
It’s OK to be fooled if the purpose is entertainment. Personally it isn’t a type of entertainment I enjoy but I’m clearly in a minority. On the other hand I would not take being lied to by a professional, such as a medical doctor, on a subject that had grave impact on my life or livelihood. I’m almost certain that was the reason the FDA was created to regulate patent medicines, and why medical practitioners were forced to self-regulate; there are inappropriate places to intentionally mislead the public for personal gain.
In the late 20th and now 21st century we’re faced with a new type of snake oil and haven’t yet figured out how to control the retailers. In a sane world, the agency responsible for that regulation might be something like the EPA, unfortunately they’re the people who need regulating.

December 25, 2015 5:13 am

What I don’t accept is this: the average global temperature is about 14 degrees C, or 287 degrees K.
The climate scientists claim these dire consequences will occur when the global temperature increases by 2 Celsius degrees (or the absolute temperature rises to 289 degrees K. That represents a 0.7% increase in the atmospheric energy level.
Is the climate so sensitive that all H***L breaks loose with a 0.7% change in its energy level? If so, how on earth did our species manage to evolve and survive in such a delicate and sensitive environment? It must have taken hundreds of millions if not billions of years for us to evolve from single cell entities to a species that can contemplate going to Mars. It’s just not credible, and I don’t buy it on the basis of common sense.

Reply to  Trebla
December 25, 2015 7:27 am

Trouble is sense isn’t common these days & you cant model 97% of it.

Jeff Alberts
Reply to  Trebla
December 25, 2015 9:11 pm

You shouldn’t accept that there is an “average global temperature”, period.

Reply to  Jeff Alberts
December 29, 2015 1:10 am

I think it’s fair to represent an “average” global temperature. We should be able to talk about the average global temperature of Mars or Pluto. But for the metric to be useful it has to have error bars.
I’d be willing to bet serious amounts of money that the standard error of estimate for Earth’s average global temperature exceeds 1K. No one talks about that.

December 25, 2015 5:24 am

The usual condescending Bleeding Heart pleas for our poor brethren in Africa and Asia, but this time backed by the false spectre of Climate Change creating food shortages but no mention of uncontrolled escalating populations and resultant increasing food demand! Nothing like a bit of hidden guilt to sustain your self-righteousness!
These people should realise that:
1. Africa and Asia have always had the capabilities and resources needed for helping themselves, particularly sufficient labour, and without the West’s funding inputs; China alone has demonstrated that! Parts of Africa, for example Ethiopia with the exception of 5 years of Mussolini, have been independent for 100’s of years. Any problems they have are largely due to their own actions and inactions.
2. More CO2 means bigger crop yields and, as demonstrated by Malthus’s wrong predictions, increasing populations don’t impose future food shortages; given application of higher productivity for the increasing labour and some very basic technology on water retention and storage/distribution – much of which was available and practiced within the Middle East, Asia and Africa many centuries ago!

Reply to  cassandra
December 25, 2015 6:45 pm

“Africa and Asia have always had the capabilities and resources needed for helping themselves”
Forty years working in Asia and Africa confirm that they have all the resources except what is needed to control how the governing elites operate and how to manage changes in government without bloodshed.

Ian W
December 25, 2015 5:32 am

So making solemn announcements about specific future regional climate events, based on models which cannot demonstrate predictive skill, seems more than a little pointless.

It is obviously not pointless or this extremely well qualified and intelligent individual, head of the World Meteorological Office would not have made the statement. He must know that the climate models are useless merely projecting their designer’s view of what will happen to far into the future for even an accurately based model to be correct. So the interesting question raised by his statement is ‘Why is he making it while knowing it to be almost certainly untrue?’

Tom Judd
Reply to  Ian W
December 25, 2015 6:24 am

“So the interesting question raised by his statement is ‘Why is he making it while knowing it to be almost certainly untrue?’”
Um, maybe because like the rest of us he’s capable of lying from time to time? Surely, you’ve lived long enough to know that people do that.

Ian W
Reply to  Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 7:28 am

Well of course – but the question that you have dodged is, why lie? After all the alternative is good news: there will be no catastrophic climate change and food is in good supply. He knows that the projections are incorrect but continues to weeping and waving shrouds. So why do it?

Tom Judd
Reply to  Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 8:46 am

Ian W on December 25, 2015 at 7:28 am
“…why lie?”
Because he thinks human beings are inherently bad and gluttonous. Because doing so will offer salvation from “mankind’s greed and indifference” (quote from Sir John Houghton; former head of the IPCC). Because he thinks he has to scare us to get us to do what he thinks we should do. Because, even though he has no idea whatsoever of the volumes and percentages involved (probably no one does), he still has a ‘gut feeling’ (and that’s all it is) that the Earth is being depleted and therefore our lifestyles our unsustainable. Because he’s a joyless masochist.

Greg Cavanagh
Reply to  Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 1:06 pm

I think in their mind it will create action to help these people. Proclaim catastrophe in the future and (presumably) it will mobilize a rescue reaction.
Something along the lines of: “Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”
Quote by Timoth Wirth, U.S./UN functionary, former elected Democrat Senator:

Reply to  Ian W
December 25, 2015 8:32 am

Because there are political and social rewards for what he is doing. There are also punishments for not saying things are going to get hotter and drier and we are in dire danger because of this. A weatherman in France was fired for going against the global warming crowd. If one wants to stay employed by the media, one says what one is told. Some people will not lie, some will. Those who do not generally have difficulty finding work in media, universities and government. It’s about reward and punishment, not about the truth.

Berényi Péter
December 25, 2015 5:52 am

“So, you’re awake. But you’re still going to die”. […] I didn’t die – so my surgeon was wrong.

Worse than that. He was right after all, in the long run, just missed the time scale completely.

December 25, 2015 5:53 am

Ian W December 25, 2015 at 5:32 am

So the interesting question raised by his statement is ‘Why is he making it while knowing it to be almost certainly untrue?’

I take it that’s a rhetorical question, Comrade Ian?

Ian W
Reply to  H.R.
December 25, 2015 7:36 am

Not totally tovarish. More something to make people think. We know that the projections are incorrect, they have been falsified multiple times. He knows the same, yet continues to incorrectly trumpet catastrophe, when it appears the ‘worst’ case is an optimum with plentiful food and benign weather with less extremes – which we are seeing now. So what / who could persuade him to make the catastrophic pronouncements as even the gullibles will cotton on soon that the shroud waving is unjustified.

Samuel C. Cogar
December 25, 2015 6:12 am

With the current position of the Jet Stream over North America ….. me thinks NASA and NOAA is gonna have a lot of fun trying to explain the “CO2 connection” to their claim of ….. “December 2015 was the very hottest HOT month ever”.
I wonder who will be the 1st to claim that atmospheric CO2 is directly responsible for the “meandering” of the Jet Stream?

Reply to  Samuel C. Cogar
December 25, 2015 8:46 am

It’s already happened:
“The study is particularly relevant in the context of a controversial hypothesis championed by Francis that the jet stream will get more wavy in the future with climate change (ClimateWire, April 3).”

Reply to  Reality check
December 25, 2015 7:00 pm

I suggest researching this further using the following key words: Rossby waves; polar vortex; H. H. Lamb.
In particular, H. H. Lamb showed how atmospheric waves were implicated in the catastrophe of the Little Ice Age, a period of hardship that was not caused by human activities, but nevertheless found many people accused of conspiring with the Devil to alter the weather.
Turnabout, Scientific American makes use of Rossby waves to support global-warming alarmism.
Who will dare be accused of conspiring with the modern witches and warlocks, identified as Deniers and Skeptics?

Samuel C. Cogar
Reply to  Reality check
December 26, 2015 4:59 am

@ Reality check
The meandering of the Jet Stream has been a primary “tool” for weather forecasters (meteorologists) for the past several decades. In other words, the more correct their predictions of said JS “meandering” is for the next 5 to 10 days, whatever, …. then the more correct their weather predictions will be.
This is the current position of the JS in the Northern Hemisphere, to wit:
And if you click the following “link” you can create an “animation” of what the Meteorologists are PREDICTING for the “meandering” of the JS over the next 6 day, to wit:
And even though the Meteorologists don’t actually know the exact cause of the “seasonal” north/south movement of the JS …. or the exact cause of its “loopey” meandering, ….. they do know two (2) important facts about the JS: ……. 1) when the JS moves South it “sucks” the cool/cold Arctic air behind it; 2) when the JS moves North it “sucks” the warm/hot Tropical air behind it;. And iffen you look at the above JS graphic those “2 facts” are quite obvious and explains “why” they are currently experiencing “blizzard” conditions in New Mexico and Colorado ….. and the East Coast is enjoying June temperatures at Christmas time.

Reply to  Reality check
December 29, 2015 1:47 am

Sadly, Scientific American is no longer a source of scientific information, they’ve become a political mouthpiece after joining the Nature Publishing group back in 2009. I don’t know who owns the NPG, but if Sci. Am. is any example, the editorial bias is strongly oriented towards supporting the AGW hypothesis now.

December 25, 2015 6:13 am

Sadly the food shortage claim is basically correct. As the world cools so the ‘food growing window’ gets smaller. The world was just three weeks short this year and it had an effect, so blame it on droughts and global warming… a win win.

Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 6:13 am

Glad you recovered.
“I didn’t die – so my surgeon was wrong. Maybe I was just very lucky, …”
It probably wasn’t luck. Doctors are not as good at predicting those things as people think. I had a doctor tell me, in no uncertain terms, from the results of a test performed in September 2003, that nobody lives beyond 5 years. I asked if there was anything they could do and that doctor told me no.
Well, there was something they could do: major organ transplant. The general guidelines at the time recommended against one until life expectancy was 2 years or less. What a crock! Nobody can figure that out, and the surgeon essentially told me that. Honest guy; he told me, “I could shorten your life.” Ultimately I declined pursuing the procedure.
Then in 2011 a genius doctor told me I had 6 months to a year left. I decided against sending in my copay.
Glad you’re with us and happy holidays and happy new year!

Tom Judd
Reply to  Eric Worrall
December 25, 2015 6:49 am

You’re most welcome. Your insight is a year round gift to us all.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 7:07 am

Reminds me of the old Henney Youngman line:
“A doctor gives his patient 6 months to live, he couldn’t pay the bill so he gives him another 6 months.”
Glad you are still with us.

Reply to  Tom Judd
December 25, 2015 7:12 pm

When I was 3 months old in the days before antibiotics I was diagnosed with cerebral meningitis. The physician said that I would be either a cripple or mentally deficient
But I have always been physically agile and did obtain high GPAs for MA and M.S. degrees at US universities.
However, the physician was not entirely wrong: I do have difficulty with certain mental gymnastics, such as those required to believe in catastrophic man-made global warming.

Mike Bromley the Kurd
December 25, 2015 6:15 am

Eric, it was eleven years ago New Year’s Eve, while still reeling from the Indian Ocean Tsunami, That my appendix announced its intent to self destruct. I probably should have Medivac’d from the drilling site to the hospital, in Northeastern British Columbia. I arrived at Beaverlodge hospital after 180 Km in a big 4×4, feeling kind of, well, gray. The desk nurse didn’t look up when saying “fill this out”. I said “I’m not feeling like writing”….she looked up and saw my complexion….And went into STAT mode. After the X-Ray, even I could see the banana in my abdomen….which exploded during the flying ambulance ride to Grande Prairie. I got wheeled right through the waiting room to surgery prep…in complete agony. The last Thing I remember was the anesthetist, A calm Sikh gentleman with a lovely purple turban. I looked at him and said “Nice Hat”…..
….and woke up an hour later with a phalanx of concerned medical types crowded around shaking me to make me breathe. “We almost lost you” was the first thing I heard. I wondered if I had pissed off the Sikh fellow, in my giddy truth-serum hangover.
Merry Christmas to all, I’m not done pissing off the world yet, I guess.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Mike Bromley the Kurd
December 25, 2015 7:15 am

Hi Mike, “nice hat”, that’s pretty funny. Sometimes it pays to be quiet though. Last year I was in for a colonoscopy and as per policy the nurse asked me what I am having done that day as I lay on the table just prior to the start of the procedure. My first inclination was to say “tonsillectomy” but better judgement keep my usually smart ass mouth quiet for once. Had I done that, they would have cancelled the procedure, rescheduled and I would have had to do the prep all over again at a later date.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 25, 2015 8:06 am

A few yrs ago I was having a brain op, in pre-op the nurse asked me what I am having done, ‘Pedicure’ says I, & she fills in the form. 2 days later I wake up & doctor comes round, tells me the operation went well but there had been a complication, he’d broken my toenail, so they’d broken open my skull to harvest materiel for a bone graft …the toe was now fine, but he didn’t know about the head, but as I was talking, unfortunately it looked like I would survive to annoy more of his staff !!
When I went back 9 mths later for discharge, at the end he gave me a piece of paper saying “the feelings mutual” , whats this mean I asked ?? “I take it you never want to see me again” he said
The Walton Hospital Liverpool, Brill place, staff & care.

lyn roberts
Reply to  Tom in Florida
December 26, 2015 4:25 am

Tom – They don’t cancel, just threaten to do the procedure without anesthestic. I shut up at that point, bad place to try to be funny. Nerves was my excuse as I was going under.

Alan Robertson
Reply to  Mike Bromley the Kurd
December 25, 2015 9:58 am

Ah Mike, that would have been Dr. Singh.
(aren’t they all)
Ps smartalecness is an affliction shared by many of us

Ivor Ward
December 25, 2015 6:22 am
European farmers may harvest another enormous wheat crop for the third year in a row in 2016. Area is expected to remain strong. In the past month, French consultancy Strategie Grains and European farming federation Copa-Cogeca estimated 2016 EU wheat area to drop by less than 1 percent from 2015.
But the slight loss in area should be outweighed by gains in trend yield alone. Taking these area estimates together with trend yield, the EU would expect to harvest 152 mln. tonnes of wheat in 2016.
Oh well wrong again!
H/T Bishop Hill
The strange thing is that they may turn out to be right but for the wrong reasons. If they block the use of GM seed, Irrigation by electrically pumping water and the climate turns cold there could well be the disaster they are praying for. Brought about by their own corrupt thinking.

December 25, 2015 6:37 am

Global harvests, and particularly African ones don’t seem to have done too badly so far!

Robert of Ottawa
December 25, 2015 7:00 am

It always amazes me that the good side of the equation is ignored. For example, a two degree rise in temperatures in Canada would be a good thing, bringing moreand under agriculture and more crops Northwards. Same applies to Siberia, so any agriculture lost in the Sahara will be more than compensated for.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
December 25, 2015 8:12 am

Isn’t global warming supposed to increase rainfall?

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Gloateus Maximus
December 25, 2015 8:57 am

But not when it doesn’t.

Gloateus Maximus
Reply to  Gloateus Maximus
December 25, 2015 9:36 am

Hence the miracle of “climate change”. Whatever happens, it’s bad, the fault of humans and worse than expected, while of course in line with predictions all along.

Scott Scarborough
December 25, 2015 8:28 am

My Grandfather had a hernia operation in his 60s. They opened him up and found that his appendix was exploded all over his insides. It had happened 50 years earlier during a scarlet fever epidemic. The doctors thought he had scarlet fever when he was a boy. He survived a ruptured appendix with no medical intervention.

December 25, 2015 9:39 am

No food or water? That’s nothing. The Observer (Guardian) in 2004 told me of a Pentagon (Is nobody immune from this madness?) report in which by 2020 there could be
Flooding of European cities due to sea level rise
Nuclear conflict
Mega droughts
Global widespread rioting
‘Siberian’ Britain
Water shortages
Energy shortages
Crop failure
Mass migration
Global chaos
Guardian, I salute you. That thing is a thing of alarmist beauty.

Reply to  Charlie
December 25, 2015 11:20 am

There are still 4 years for them to get it right!!

December 25, 2015 9:41 am

50 years ago, following the first successful heart transplant by Dr. Christian Barnard in South Africa, there was a cartoon going the rounds of the project I was working on, overseas. There was no caption to the cartoon, only a sketch view into a typical double operating table transplant operating theatre. The organ recipient was sitting up on one operating table, relaxed and with a big grin on his face. On the second operating table, heavily strapped down, struggling to get free and with a look of sheer terror on his face was the donor: a donkey!

December 25, 2015 10:26 am

Many years back, while chatting with a couple of my engineering students, we were discussing doctors and I volunteered that I did not suppose the average doctor was any smarter than the average engineer.
“I don’t think so either,” said one of them (Scott), “they just have stronger stomachs!”
Quite so. Curiously, Scott’s family name was Worrell or perhaps Worrall! Spelling aside, I remember him well. We always remember the very best and the very worst. Scott was excellent and then some.

David S
December 25, 2015 10:44 am

Global warming will cause more water to evaporate from the oceans. Then the water vapor rises into the atmosphere. But it doesn’t stay up there forever. It eventually condenses and falls back to earth as rain, snow, sleet or hail. So warming means more rain, not less.

December 25, 2015 11:28 am

Glad that you made it Eric!
I find the responses to Eric’s post fascinating. Eric is the “credible source”, who told us something, and without any further evidence or research, many of us accept what he said as true.
But any judgements about whether or not the surgeon in question is like a failed model, are purely subjective without more evidence. How often is that surgeon wrong? Was he in fact correct at the moment he made the statement? Did Eric, as a unique individual, respond differently than expected and thus change the outcome? Or did the doctor not have full information when he said it…and thus make statement based on his fullest knowledge at the time? Did he lie? Did Eric tell us everything, or did quantifying statements follow his declaration?
A truly logical mindset is consistently logical, or strives to be. It is capable of believing that Eric’s story is accurate from Eric’s point of view, but also refusing to make a determination about the doctor’s predictive abilities without examinging all possibilities first. And until it can, Eric’s story is merely anecdotal as a comparison to climate models and modelers.
Details are important. The title of the article Eric referenced makes a claim that is not supported by the quotes Eric used. The title insinuates that something terribleqrhc “will happen”, but the quotes say “could happen”. If water is the most important requirement for human survival, then of course one can honestly say that drought, which limits the amount of drinking water readily available to humans, is the greatest threat that COULD occur in the list of things that COULD happen due to global warming. Is the scientist quoted warning us that it could happen, because all the markers are there that preceeded it before, or is the scientist saying it WILL happen…guaranteed?
We have to be as vigilant about what IS said, and what is implied, if we want to be viewed differently than everyone else who just reads a title, or hears someone that we find credible say something, and just accepts what is stated, as the truth. If we make assumptions about someone else’s motives or circumstances based on premises that we cannot prove, we are no better than the people who call us science deniers, or shills.

December 25, 2015 1:08 pm

“But most people don’t pay much attention to climate issues. ”
I was chatting to a good friend a couple of days ago, who I’d assumed believed what I’d told her over the years about the climate scam. She always jokes that I’m always talking about it. I was astounded when she said “Oh come on Tony. There’s lots of evidence to support it.”
I naturally asked her exactly what that evidence was and she said “Oh I don’t know. I’m not a scientist but I know there’s heaps of evidence.”
I pointed out some basics but it went straight over her head.
I have no doubt that the majority of people are like this. The big question is how to get through to them?

Pablo an ex Pat
December 25, 2015 1:22 pm

Had an eye exam one time and it confirmed what I already knew, my eyesight was getting worse. I asked my opthalmologist for a diagnosis of why this was happening and whether it would it improve on it’s own.
He said “Unfortunately it will not improve but will actually get steadily worse. You need to know you have a terminal condition……… you’re getting older and so are your eyes”
Made me laugh out loud, I thought it might have been a serious problem, phew !

December 25, 2015 1:27 pm

Most doctors and surgeons do not know or understand nearly as much as they think that they do.
The same can be applied to Climatologists.

Reply to  ntesdorf
December 25, 2015 6:40 pm

Writes ntesdorf:

Most doctors and surgeons do not know or understand nearly as much as they think that they do.
The same can be applied to Climatologists.

“Most doctors and surgeons,” knowing how hard it is to be certain about what goes on in a complex multivariant system with nonlinear responses to input, have examined the “consensus” climatologists’ catastrophe caterwaul and we’ve decided that this crap is pure quackery.
And quackery we learn a helluva lot about.

“There’s no need for fiction in medicine,” remarks Foster… “for the facts will always beat anything you fancy.”

— Arthur Conan Doyle

Patrick MJD
Reply to  ntesdorf
December 26, 2015 4:33 am

I sort of agree, but also disagree. Drs. cannot possibly fully understand the variability of conditions, and symptoms, their patients exhibit. And of course they see many many people daily, and may get a bit tired? My best description is they “guess” based on what you tell them, and in large part they do a good job IMO. Now, as sort of an analogy, when I take my car to a mechanic and say…”The big ends have gone.”…”There is a real noisy rumbling from my back end.” …he and I know exactly what I am talking about.

lyn roberts
December 25, 2015 2:06 pm

I have a copy of a letter from a world renowned heart hospital, here in Brisbane, addressed to my husbands GP stating that my husband is going to die in less than 30 days, and not to sign his death certificate, as they wanted to autopsy him.
I did not become aware of this letter until about 8 months latter when i was praising the hospital care to my GP, his reply was so much for their expert opinion, your husband wouldn’t be alive if they were right.
This morning my husband is nearly 5 years later, and going back to see our specialist at same heart hospital, on the 12 January, who said the last time we visited him, I have thrown away the text books, your husband is teaching me more than I ever learned at medical school.
All I was told at the time my husband was discharged from hospital, was we can do no more for him.
What gets in my craw is that they never warned me about the time frame, and also that they had instructed our family GP not to sign his death certificate if he did die within the next 30 days.
In Australia if you have been in hospital and have a known condition the GP can sign off death certificate without an autopsy.
Otherwise you are in the hands of the police and coroner to establish the cause of your death, having a neighbor who was treated like a criminal by the police when her husband died unexpectedly, GP would not sign his death certificate, turned out he had a clot ,and having cared for my husband I feared to be treated the same, she was in a dreadful state after hours of questioning by the police.

December 25, 2015 2:50 pm

We could well run short of water if we don’t develop nuclear power to the point it is cheap, but global warming won’t have anything to do with it. It will be we need to grow food, take showers, water our lawns, and take baths. All good things, IMO.

December 25, 2015 3:38 pm

You don’t have to know that the climate models are wrong, to know that there won’t be a food production problem. The climate models actually show globally improved potential for food production. First, the models show 2-3% increased precipitation per degree C of warming. The figure should be about 7%, but 2-3% will do : it means more rain, globally. More rain means more ability to grow food. Secondly, there are vast land areas – chiefly Canada and Russia – which will become available for growing food where little or none is grown now. When people concentrate on specific areas that are predicted to be worse off in order to generate a negative message, and ignore the vast areas that will be better off, that’s a very nasty cherry-pick.

December 25, 2015 3:52 pm

It’s not much of a trend, but it is a trend and I’ll take it.
Not sure this will work correctly (it’s the government, after all), so here’s the home page for this information.

December 25, 2015 4:09 pm

I had surgery on my teeth, he knew I was terrified and said “it’s a minor operation ” then added “ of course you do know the difference between a major operation and a minor operation? If I have it it’s major, if you have it it’s minor.

December 25, 2015 4:12 pm

“Science is the belief in the incompetence of experts”. I have come to embrace that quote by Richard Feynman everytime I read news headlines in any area. It’s a philosophy I recommend to anyone who hasn’t time to research issues in detail and a statement of common sense for anyone who has.

December 25, 2015 5:15 pm

Thought I’d add to the doctor-patient jokes by re-telling the old Rodney Dangerfield gag:
Doctor: “Rodney, you are dangerously obese”
Rodney: ” I’d like a second opinion”
Doctor: “OK, you’re ugly too”

December 25, 2015 5:21 pm

Food distribution is an issue when food production mismanaged. Venezuela is bigger (by ~1/3) than Texas & has a lot more water but it’s president had to arrange food imports from Uruguay (July 2015) & then only paid US$50 million (Nov 2015) of the US$267 million due. So Uruguay sent 1/3 of milk & 1/10 of cheese until gets paid as Uruguay’s National Milk Institute head R. de Izaguirre said: “We had understood it would be just one complete payment. Three cheese companies have the remaining orders in fridges waiting to go.”

December 26, 2015 12:28 am

There is no better example of a misguided phrase than “Central Planning”. It boils down to everyone wears gray. No exceptions.

Paul Westhaver
December 26, 2015 4:41 am

My aunt died from a ruptured appendix and infection. It happens.

December 26, 2015 5:14 am

Thank you Eric for your essays, which I have very much appreciated. You wrote: “Even with experience and skill, prediction is a difficult.”
I agree, and yet some of us have an excellent predictive track record.
Way back in 2002, three of us predicted the current global warming fiasco with remarkable accuracy. A recent summary is here:
The UN’s IPCC Has No Credibility On Global Warming September 6, 2015
by Allan MacRae
Summarizing the IPCC’s track record: The IPCC has fabricated false projections of catastrophic global warming and extreme weather that have not materialized. The IPCC’s false claims are contradicted by two decades of credible data. The IPCC has negative credibility.
In contrast, the eight predictions we made on our 2002 PEGG rebuttal remain credible:
1. “Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming – the alleged warming crisis does not exist.” NO net global warming has occurred for more than 18 years despite increasing atmospheric CO2.
2. “Kyoto focuses primarily on reducing CO2, a relatively harmless gas, and does nothing to control real air pollution like NOx, SO2, and particulates, or serious pollutants in water and soil.” Note the extreme pollution of air, water and soil that still occurs in China and the Former Soviet Union.
3. “Kyoto wastes enormous resources that are urgently needed to solve real environmental and social problems that exist today. For example, the money spent on Kyoto in one year would provide clean drinking water and sanitation for all the people of the developing world in perpetuity.” Since the start of global warming mania, about 50 million children below the age of five have died from contaminated water.
4. “Kyoto will destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs and damage the Canadian economy – the U.S., Canada’s biggest trading partner, will not ratify Kyoto, and developing countries are exempt.” Canada signed Kyoto but then most provinces wisely ignored it – the exception being now-depressed Ontario, where government adopted ineffective “green energy” schemes and drove up energy costs.
5. “Kyoto will actually hurt the global environment – it will cause energy-intensive industries to move to exempted developing countries that do not control even the worst forms of pollution.” Note the huge manufacturing growth and extremely polluted air in the industrial regions of China.
6. “Kyoto’s CO2 credit trading scheme punishes the most energy efficient countries and rewards the most wasteful. Due to the strange rules of Kyoto, Canada will pay the Former Soviet Union billions of dollars per year for CO2 credits.” Our government did not pay the FSU, but other governments did, bribing them to sign Kyoto.
7. “Kyoto will be ineffective – even assuming the overstated pro-Kyoto science is correct, Kyoto will reduce projected warming insignificantly, and it would take as many as 40 such treaties to stop alleged global warming.” IF one believed the false climate models, one would conclude that we must stop using fossil fuels.
8. “The ultimate agenda of pro-Kyoto advocates is to eliminate fossil fuels, but this would result in a catastrophic shortfall in global energy supply – the wasteful, inefficient energy solutions proposed by Kyoto advocates simply cannot replace fossil fuels.” Governments that adopted “green energy” schemes such as wind and solar power are finding these schemes are not green and produce little useful energy. Their energy costs are soaring and these governments are in retreat, dropping their green energy subsidies as fast as they politically can.
All the above predictions that we made in 2002 have proven correct in those states that fully adopted the Kyoto Accord, whereas none of the IPCC’s scary climate projections have materialized.
So what happens next? Will we see catastrophic humanmade global warming?
No, we predicted in 2002 that Earth will soon cool and that prediction is increasingly probable.
My paleoclimatologist colleague and I predicted the commencement of global cooling by 2020 to 2030 in an article I wrote in 2002. This prediction is gaining credibility as solar activity in current Solar Cycle 24 (SC 24) has crashed. This prediction is still less than certain, but SC25 is also projected to be very weak, so we will probably experience two consecutive very-weak Solar Cycles in SC24 and SC25. IF the Sun does indeed primarily drive global temperature, as I believe, then successive governments in Britain and continental Europe have brewed the perfect storm. They have crippled their energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected wind and solar power schemes. Global cooling will probably happen within the next decade or sooner, and Europe and the world will get colder, possibly much colder. Winter deaths will increase as cooling progresses, especially harming the elderly and the poor. Excess Winter Mortality rates will provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
Timing is difficult to estimate, but I now expect natural global cooling to be evident by 2020 or sooner.

European politicians are retreating from highly-subsidized green energy schemes that have damaged their industrial competitiveness and harmed their people, and they are gradually reverting to fossil fuels. It appears they would do so more quickly, except they are embarrassed by their foolish acceptance of global warming mania and are trying to save face. The Sun, a UK newspaper, recently quoted British Prime Minister David Cameron as saying: “We have got to get rid of all this green crap.”
Mr. Cameron’s candid statement reflects the fact that the UK has created its own energy crisis due to excess investment in worthless, over-hyped green energy schemes and must quickly find a solution.
The lessons for Alberta are clear: When misinformed politicians fool with energy systems, the costs are enormous – globally, trillions of dollars of scarce resources have been
squandered, economies have been severely damaged, and innocent people have needlessly suffered and died.
[end of excerpt]
I suggest that these uber-green politicians and their minions were adequately warned of their green-energy folly more than a decade ago, and can now be held accountable. Under British law, they may be sued under “misfeasance in a public office”. In the USA, global warming advocates and their institutions may also be sued under Civil RICO.
Regards to all and Happy Holidays, Allan

December 26, 2015 6:25 am

My mother owns some prime Missouri River bottom land a few miles east of Kansas City that my dad used to farm. I don’t remember the year, but I do remember he and my mother talking over the dinner table about how we’d had our first year in which he’d produced an average of 100 bushels of corn per acre. It was a big deal. A milestone. I was born in 1962 so that was probably sometime in the late ’60s, maybe early ’70s. My mother still owns the land and now the man who farms it regularly produces 200+ bu/acre. I think the average was 240 bu/acre in 2013, and slightly less last year in 2014 due to a wet spring that prevented planting during the optimal window.
But the point I want to make is that in 2014 a man in Georgia produced a world record 503 bushels of corn per acre. Yes, in Georgia. Not the traditional “corn belt” like Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois or Indiana. The world will be absolutely flooded with corn once the techniques the Georgia man used to produce 503 bushel per acre are widely adopted. While not as dramatic, farmers here are have also seem huge productivity increases in soybean yields since my father was farming. Those are the primary grains grown in this area. The seed strains used today are unbelievably resilient to drought, pests, etc. It is depressing to hear so much pessimism when we are experiencing a “golden age” in productivity in food production.

Reply to  Groty
December 26, 2015 6:48 am

Should have mentioned. The U.S. national average corn yield in 2014 was estimated by USDA to be 171 bu/acre.
So the difference between the 503 bu/acre world record and the national average of 171 bu/acre shows how much potential there is for additional productivity improvements. All of this is why I am fully on board with Jesse Ausubel’s theory that the world is approaching “peak farmland”. Not because we’re running out, but because we don’t need any more.

Reply to  Groty
December 26, 2015 9:45 am

Hi Groty, – My surmise is that this was irrigated & as important that strobilurin, an anti- fungal spray, was used. If anyone interested refer to (2013) “Quantifying the effect of pyraclostrobin grain-fill period and kernel dry matter accumulation in maize”, by Byamukam, et. al in journal Plant Health Progress which says the grain kernel weight goes up (ie: due to better 8 leaves above ear which provides >85% assimilates into grain, as per 2005 “Yield loss of corn hybrids to iincremental defoliation”, by Adee et. al in Crop Management, 4) since both fewer kernels fail & the time for the grain to fill can be increased (see 2008 “Kernel weight dependence upon plant growth at different grain-filling stages in maize and sorghum” by Gambin, et. al in Australian Journal of Agricultural Research, 59, 3). The chemical also acts as a plant growth regulator since interacts with the plant in such a way to lower the generation of ethylene (ie: senescene allayed gives better vitality period) & also up-regulate the enzyme nitrate reductase (ie: more nitrogen assimilated) leading to a higher % of protein in corn leaves .

December 26, 2015 8:55 am

It seems to be a thread for medical adventures:
Two decades ago, I awoke during a five-hour surgery to view a room full of people measuring my intestines. I did not know until that moment that I was completely immune to painkillers and had just been asleep.
I was unhappy. And the doctors were panicked. Ultimately, they suffocated me unconscious so that they could continue. It was the largest dose of anesthetic ever given by that hospital. Still true; they are now clients of mine.
My problem was that I had never been “cool” as a youngster, never drank, smoked or did drugs. And I did not realize that morphine, alcohol,Valium, Percodan, Darvocet, Dilaudin, et cetera don’t touch me at all.
I recovered from the surgery; the parts they left out I evidently didn’t really need. But if you know any researchers in pain medication, I would happily volunteer to be a guinea pig. These days I am dealing with constant low-level pain from nerve damage last year (I am wheelchair-bound now), and would appreciate some relief.
===|==============/ Keith DeHavelle

December 28, 2015 11:26 pm

I feel very much the same Eric and recently I found a way to express my irritation. I won’t say anger, it’s impossible for me to stay angry with these “folks” (for lack of a better word) over years at a time; it’s bad for my health. But I’ve found I can maintain an effective level of irritation almost indefinitely.
There’s a guy named J.D. King who put out an impressive feature length documentary on the failures of the Green movement he calls “Blue”. It’s on Vimeo (I think) and you can watch it on the ‘net for free. Those without religious leanings might find some of the philosophy foreign but certainly not overpowering and it doesn’t get in the way o the Science. Lord Christopher Monkton of Brenchly has a leading role! If you’re interested in the subject of AGW, the corruption of environmentalism by the Greens, and you enjoy well researched and produced documentary film, Joe Bob says “check it out!”.
Anyway, the same guy is producing another documentary on polar bears called “Vicebear” (Susan, take note), the topical one liner is “If these people can’t even get polar bears right, how do you expect them to handle something complicated like climate?”. I think he has a good point so I signed up on Kickstarter to be an Associate Producer. If you’re interested, you better move fast to snag a cheap credit on the film before they’re all gone 🙂 Google should get you there.

December 29, 2015 10:40 am

I think that those who peddle alarmist bs have a serious pyschological problem, and those who believe them naively a lesser psychological problem.
The underlying cause is a negative view of humans.
Sometimes that comes from religious teachings (such as the born-sinner theology invented by Saint Augustine circa 400AD), most often in societies like AUZ-Canada-UK-US from Marxist teachings which are widespread in universities and public schools. Marxism, from the Plato-Kant thread of philosophy, denies effectiveness of the human mind, thus teaches fixed-pie economics and drive-to-the-bottom ethics.
It is very common for the food alarmists to be
The amazing thing is that evidence to the contrary is all around them, and they benefit tremendously from it every day. Agricultural productivity, sound shelter, medical cures and restorations, transportation, clean water, waster disposal, etc.
A wild example recently was a letter in a local newspaper claiming that gray squirrels were decimating bird populations because they eat eggs and even small birds. But the day after reading that I saw a flock of robins, in a neighborhood that has gray squirrels, raccoons, crows, cats, and a Coopers Hawk. The flock was on a lawn, in sunshine – conditions in which I expect worms emerge (robins like worms).

December 29, 2015 2:01 pm
Phillip Marchand reviews “Black Earth: The Holocaust as History and Warning” by Timothy Snyder, a book that points to Hitler’s belief that humans are just animals who will eliminate each other to get food. Snyder is concerned that alarmism about food will motivate people to be aggressive because – Snyder believes – food production is declining and climate change will increase drought and floods. Snyder apparently likes governments as he thinks they protect people, but the example of Hitler himself, and the regimes in Iran, Cambodia, and Communist China show that government must have the correct foundation.)
The big question is why people believe eco-nuts, which Hitler was, and even vote for them as they did for Hitler. Today’s version even advocates tattooing people who question them, just as Germany’s Nationalsozialistische regime tattooed Jews.

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