From the UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY
Using statistically modeled maps drawn from satellite data and other sources, U.S. Geological Survey scientists have projected that the near-surface permafrost that presently underlies 38 percent of boreal and arctic Alaska would be reduced by 16 to 24 percent by the end of the 21st century under widely accepted climate scenarios. Permafrost declines are more likely in central Alaska than northern Alaska.
Northern latitude tundra and boreal forests are experiencing an accelerated warming trend that is greater than in other parts of the world. This warming trend degrades permafrost, defined as ground that stays below freezing for at least two consecutive years. Some of the adverse impacts of melting permafrost are changing pathways of ground and surface water, interruptions of regional transportation, and the release to the atmosphere of previously stored carbon.
“A warming climate is affecting the Arctic in the most complex ways,” said Virginia Burkett, USGS Associate Director for Climate and Land Use Change. “Understanding the current distribution of permafrost and estimating where it is likely to disappear are key factors in predicting the future responses of northern ecosystems to climate change.”
In addition to developing maps of near-surface permafrost distributions, the researchers developed maps of maximum thaw depth, or active-layer depth, and provided uncertainty estimates. Future permafrost distribution probabilities, based on future climate scenarios produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), were also estimated by the USGS scientists. Widely used IPCC climate scenarios anticipate varied levels of climate mitigation action by the global community.
These future projections of permafrost distribution, however, did not include other possible future disturbances in the future, such as wildland fires. In general, the results support concerns about permafrost carbon becoming available to decomposition and greenhouse gas emission.
The research has been published in Remote Sensing of Environment. The current near-surface permafrost map is available via ScienceBase.
###
Using statistically modeled
under widely accepted climate scenarios
It’s worse than we thought when we projected our projections
As President Obomber said today ” the seas will erode the coasts”. When I heard that I thought “well, duh. It’s called erosion for a reason”.
…. Our new models are the best models available ! They are based on the old models that never worked using even older models that couldn’t even predict the temperature of tomorrow ! Progress !
If they killed most of the the funding for all this “go along to get along” BS research and put that money into efforts to perfect practical and economically feasible new energy, we could solve any possible CO2 issues, and, more importantly, conserve our carbon resources as chemical building blocks for the products of tomorrow.
We understand quite well that at several junctures during the past couple thousand years, that much of Alaska was either warmer than at present, or as warm and remained so for hundreds of years. Witness is the relatively young tree stumps being found under currently receding glaciers, like the Exit and Mendenhall glaciers.
Is there not a good understanding of how the permafrost has responded during the past 2,000 years or so?
I’d say that if these new USGS models are any good they should be able to accurately predict the permafrost state five years from now. If they’re successful, we should consider funding a 30 year study. If that works, we should consider taking them seriously.
From the article
“…statistical modelled maps…”
Right! I think I will focus on finishing assembling my friends daughters trampoline instead.
So us tax paper funded scientists publish something and we get to pay $37 to read the darned paper?
If you read the words of the scientists in their entirety, you begin to realize it is the media who causes the technical writing to bleed like a stuck squealing pig.