Willis Eschenbach sends us this story from the HuffngtonPost, where the subtitle on their COP21 story is one of certainty, and of course as we predicted earlier in the week, also one of pure hilarity.
“It’s time to get out of this negotiation rhetoric and focus on solutions, otherwise, in a hundred years, we’ll all be dead.”
Who knew? …
The average human lifespan is increasing, maybe by then we’ll all be immortal if the trend keeps up.
![Life_Expectancy_at_Birth_by_Region_1950-2050[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/life_expectancy_at_birth_by_region_1950-20501.png?resize=720%2C480&quality=75)
Note: edits were made to this story to correct spelling errors
The rate at which people die has increased in almost exact correlation to the rate of increase of CO2.
People were dying in very small numbers until about 1750, whereupon, as we all now know, climate change started – and since then more and more people have died per year, year on year.
At this rate everyone currently alive will certainly be dead within 100 years or so.
Children just aren’t going to know what being alive is…
(May contain sarc.)
Are we going to name this the copulatory corollary?
Irony detected but no sarcasm
What was that famous quote about the two certainties in life? “Death”, and… something else I can’t quite remember at the moment. I think that’s what they’re working on in Paris.
Yep, being born is fatal.
How much of the increased lifespan is due to reduced infant mortality? The maximum lifespan may be increasing, but not nearly so much as the averaged figures suggest.
My qute of the week.
Anyone that would overlook the slaughter of 130 innocent people after only 2 weeks and less than a mile from where he is speaking is not fit to lead. While trying to back it down he has already shown no sympathy to the victims, their families, or anyone other than himself. His speech blows like extreme bad breath into faces of the intelligent and disappointed people of France.
My qute of the week. On mass killings only occur in the USA.
Ah, the ludi-crass Huff-Po hasn’t realised that Cop21 is the new Secular Games.
Wiki:-
“The Secular Games (Latin Ludi Saeculares) was a Roman religious celebration, involving sacrifices and theatrical performances, held in ancient Rome for three days and nights to mark the end of a saeculum and the beginning of the next. A saeculum, supposedly the longest possible length of human life, was considered as either 100 or 110 years in length.”
It’s already happening! Even though the temperature has gone up by less than 1C over the last hundred years, billions have died!
It’s worse than we thought.
ferdberple December 1, 2015 at 9:46 am
Dear ferdberple. Actuary tables would disagree with you about living forever. These things say that if “Immortality” came along plus cures for all diseases, then -living a normal everyday life but not having children -fifty percent of the population will be gone by 600 years then fifty percent of the remainder after a further 600 years etc etc. Then there is the Copernican Conundrum chasing furiously after the ones who stubbornly insist on remaining in the remainder.
And if we all do as they say we must (give up all carbon based energy sources), we’ll all be dead a lot sooner than 2100.
Well:
Volume 62, Number 7, January 6, 2014, National Vital Statistics Reports
National Vital Statistics System of the National Center for Health Statistics of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of the U.S. Department of Health and Human services
United States Life Tables, 2009
Table 1. Life table for the total population: United States, 2009
Out of 100,000 children born, 2,056 will survive their 100th birthday at which time they will have a life expectancy of 2.3 years.
So, almost all of us. Certainly, I will not survive 100 more years. Almost nobody lives past 115. There are a few documented cases of people living longer than that. I believe that longest document life was Jeanne Calment of France who died in 1997 at the age of 122 years & 164 days.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people
In life expectancy, the past is prologue. In 1900 the average expectancy in the USA was 49. Now it is 79. By 2100 hundred will it be 109? And the USA has not increased as rapidly as many other countries. There now are 28 countries with life expectancies of 80 or more. And the USA is not one of them (79) – ranking 37th.
Don’t go by what we see in the USA. The real stories are elsewhere.
A Japanese (84) only needs to live 16 years past average to be 100. Women only need 13 years beyond average to get to 100. Up from 83 ten years ago. In 1950 Japan was at 59. In 65 years they’ve gone up 25 years.
Spain is only a year behind Japan, at 83 overall and 86 for women.
Mexico was at 28 in 1900, at 49 in 1950, and is now at 76. Up 48 years in 115 years – about 5 additional months per year lived.
I think it was Isaac Asimov who said that if we achieved individual immortality, the average lifespan would be about 800 years, because of accidents. Now of course some might live much longer, and some much less, but all things considered, I’d be happier with 800 years than I am with my current prospects.
/Mr Lynn
Well, as and enthusiastic deep and steep skier, horse enthusiast and past motorcycle rider, heart attack survivor, cancer survivor and radiation poisoning survivor and survivor of a whole pile of accidents, I am already well past my best before date so I don’t object to my eventual disposition. My body would never last 120 years never mind 800 – it’s too damaged to last much longer and though I signed a donor card, I am thinking they might just want to use it to show medical students how not to treat a body (I signed off on that too). Nevertheless, I plan to keep on skiing and riding horses till that expiry date comes around (and maybe even buy another motorcycle to take a last tour around the continent before the legs and arms stop working). Geez, who’d want to live 800 years anyway? Gotta make room for my grand kids and go visit all my old friends who left the planet before me. Threads across the Universe.
Life expectancy is not increasing ( or very little, compared to conventional wisdom) Infant mortality rates are decreasing. Those numbers are added into the average and gives the impression that everyone is living longer. Not entirely true. Dig up some statistics that show life expectancy at age 50, after disease and accidents and stupidity have been filtered out, and you’ll see that life expectancy has only increased a few years.
Maybe we’re all already dead
http://img3.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20100305053626/southpark/images/thumb/6/67/Imaginationland18.jpg/500px-Imaginationland18.jpg
The ABC (Australian) news this morning said that the Pacific Ocean island nations were complaining because “they had been left high and dry” at the Paris conference. Funny but I thought that was their intention – rather than going under water.
“If we don’t do something about [taxes; regulations; politics; whatever] causing climate change, in a hundred years we will all be out of a job.” There. I fixed it for you.
OT: Sorry to ask here, but I don’t know where else to post. Does anyone know when we’ll get the next value on the length of the pause? Shouldn’t it be soon? I’m on pins and needles.
UAH Update for November
UAH for November showed a drop of 0.1 from October. I knew that UAH could not reach second place before this. However a huge upward spike in November could have made it interesting. But with a drop, reaching second place it totally out of the question. It is stuck in third.
This is the warmest November on the UAH6.0beta4 record. However it seems as if the El Ninos just fail to produce high November anomalies. For example, the first 10 months of 1998 all beat 0.33. As well, the first 9 months of 2010 beat or tied 0.33.
The pause for UAH remains at 18 years and 6 months. It is just shifted over by a month so now it starts in June 1997 and ends on November 2015.
RSS Update for November
RSS for November came in at 0.426, a slight drop from the October value of 0.447. While it is the warmest November on record for RSS, the anomaly of 0.426 was beaten in the first 10 months of 1998 and the first 9 months of 2010. 2015 is in third place now and there is no way it can even reach second in 2015.
The pause remains at 18 years and 9 months, however it is shifted by one month. So it is no longer from February 1997 to October 2015, but rather from March 1997 to November 2015.
This is a chart of the average daily derivative of temperature for surface stations over the whole planet.
?w=696
You can see the 97 El Nino, which shows how the surface temp went up a lot (as the warm tropical air moved inland). But it didn’t last long, look at the downward spike that followed, the tropical air doesn’t enhance warming, it just takes some time to cool off (consider the kinetic energy carried by the millions of gallons of water poleward).
Thanks Dean. I to find it amazing no one has heard of it. The Climate Depot folks have calculated, by least-squares, 18 years 9 months looking at RSS data through Oct. The Oct value was the highest it’s been since 2010. I was wondering when we’ll get Nov numbers, as I was hoping Nov might not be any higher.
The Huff must have been channelling Woody Allen?
Woody Allen