From the INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS and the “back to modeling the future” department: Spring to come 3 weeks earlier to the United States
Scientists have projected that the onset of spring plant growth will shift by a median of 3 weeks earlier over the next century, as a result of rising global temperatures
The results, published today (Wednesday 14th October), in the journal Environmental Research Letters, have long term implications for the growing season of plants and the relationship between plants and the animals that depend upon them.
The researchers, based at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, US, applied the extended Spring Indices to predict the dates of leaf and flower emergence based on day length. These general models capture the phenology of many plant species.
Their results show particularly rapid shifts in plant phenology in the Pacific Northwest and Mountainous regions of the western US, with smaller shifts in southern areas, where spring already arrives early.
“Our projections show that winter will be shorter – which sound greats great for those of us in Wisconsin” explains Andrew Allstadt, an author on the paper. “But long distance migratory birds, for example, time their migration based on day length in their winter range. They may arrive in their breeding ground to find that the plant resources that they require are already gone.”
The researchers also investigated so-called ‘false springs’ – when freezing temperatures return after spring plant growth has begun. They showed that these events will decrease in most locations. However a large area of the western Great Plains is projected to see an increase in false springs. “This is important as false springs can damage plant production cycles in natural and agricultural systems” continues Allstadt. “In some cases, an entire crop can be lost.”
These researchers are working on a NASA Biodiversity Grant, with the goal of assisting people working in conservation of public land in the US. As such, the researchers have provided much of their data freely on their website: http://silvis.forest.wisc.edu/
“We are expanding our research to cover all kinds of extreme weather, including droughts and heat waves” concluded Allstadt. “We are particularly interested in how these affect bird populations in wildlife refuges.”
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As is typical for “science by press releases”, they don’t bother to mention the name of the study, which is pretty lame for IOP since they not only issued the press release, but they published the study too. So, I looked it up; it’s more RCP8.5 modeling madness.
On the plus side, the authors made everything open source, which is commendable. But what you don’t see in the press release is an admission of uncertainty; like the late great Yogi Berra’s famous line “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.“, they concede “…global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult” .
I find this map they provide interesting in the context of the press release since it seems a good part of the middle U.S. might not see that 3 week earlier onset by 2100.
See: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104008
Spring plant phenology and false springs in the conterminous US during the 21st century
Andrew J Allstadt, Stephen J Vavrus, Patricia J Heglund, Anna M Pidgeon, Wayne E Thogmartin and Volker C Radeloff
Abstract:
The onset of spring plant growth has shifted earlier in the year over the past several decades due to rising global temperatures. Earlier spring onset may cause phenological mismatches between the availability of plant resources and dependent animals, and potentially lead to more false springs, when subsequent freezing temperatures damage new plant growth. We used the extended spring indices to project changes in spring onset, defined by leaf out and by first bloom, and predicted false springs until 2100 in the conterminous United States (US) using statistically-downscaled climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 ensemble. Averaged over our study region, the median shift in spring onset was 23 days earlier in the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario with particularly large shifts in the Western US and the Great Plains. Spatial variation in phenology was due to the influence of short-term temperature changes around the time of spring onset versus season-long accumulation of warm temperatures. False spring risk increased in the Great Plains and portions of the Midwest, but remained constant or decreased elsewhere. We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.
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We MUST take money out of the equation to get a realistic study of anything !! Science has been corrupted by MONEY !! Best way to start, give EQUAL amounts to pro and con views, then judge the results !!
“We conclude that global climate change may have complex and spatially variable effects on spring onset and false springs, making local predictions of change difficult.”
How do I get a job like this? Seriously.
Calling Viner…..
“Scientists have projected that the onset of spring plant growth will shift by a median of 3 weeks earlier over the next century, as a result of rising global temperatures,”
This is what everyone wants; a shorter winter, but where, oh, where is that “rising temperature”.
I’ve got a groundhog that can model this for a lot less money.
I remember back maybe twenty years ago seeing stories in the press (from England I think) about spring coming so many days earlier every year due to global warming. That was my first exposure to what would now be called “Climate Change”. I took it for granted it was true at the time.
After twenty years I suppose Spring should be coming in Autumn by now.
So how did these plants and beasties survive the medieval warming period? We do know that as a species we survived and flourished in former warmer climate optimums. Because I know something of the cooling periods Dark Ages and Little Ice Ages and the suffering. I am absolutely amazed that this improvement in the habitability of the climate since the misery of the Little Ice Age is presented as fearsome or alarming and with out appropriate climate perspective by researchers. Given that the populations exploded in the Medieval Warming Period and crashed in the Little Ice Age don’t you think the narrative should change to praying for better habitability? .
“Spring to come 3 weeks earlier to the United States”
Promises, promises.
I designed a model to study changes in the time of sunrise and sunset. I tested my model using data from the months of April and May and discovered that if trends continue, by about March of 2016 the sun will rise before it sets, leaving us with no night. Shocked at my findings, I ran the numbers again using the data from July and August. This time it told me that, according to the trend, the days will get shorter and shorter until about April of next year when there will be no daylight at all. I’m not sure what to make of this contradictory model output, but I’m sure it can’t be the result of natural cycles. If climate scientists can ignore the possibility of natural cycles in their climate models, why shouldn’t I ignore them in my model?
Didn’t someone once propose some theory in which birds that migrate at the wrong time are at a marginal disadvantage and tend to be less successful than other birds which turn up at precisely the ideal time?
I forget the exact details – something to do with selection according to fitness.
It was that same bloke who pointed out – the fact that coral atolls happen to be at just above sea level can’t be a complete bleedin’ coincidence, can it?
(Head collides with desk, in sheer frustration.)
And in the UK the Bewick Swan has arrived 25days early. This Siberian species heralds the start of winter.
I wonder what day they arrived in the UK in 1000 AD (height of the MWP)?
Winter will be over sooner? No. Winter begins at the Winter Solstice and ends at the Vernal Equinox.
Since the time of perihelion (and aphelion) gets a few hours earlier each year wouldn’t the onset of meteorological season change subtlely over time? 7% higher insolation must effect temperature a tiny bit. I think more than the CO2 level. Not sarc, just an observation.
If true, wouldn’t that mean a longer growing season? That’s a good thing – isn’t it? More food from the Bread Basket of the world? Priceless!