Google forecasts no interest in Paris COP21

Annotated Google Big Data Query showing past and forecast interest in climate related search terms.
Annotated Google Big Data Query showing past and forecast interest in climate related search terms.

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Forbes reports that, according to Google search statistics, the world’s media climate blitz has failed to date to spark any interest in global warming.

According to Forbes;

The graph above shows relative web search interest in the two terms, demonstrating that interest in global warming decreased substantially in mid-2010 and by mid-2013 dropped equal with searches for climate change, exhibiting a more than ten-fold decrease in public interest. Searches for climate change increased from 2006-2010, but in the last three years have been stable at their early 2005 levels. Put simply, the public simply isn’t searching about the topic anymore, suggesting they either aren’t interested or they feel they already know what they would like to know about changing climatic conditions. Google News searches exhibit a nearly identical downward slope suggesting that the public isn’t searching for the latest breaking climate news either, indicating an overall decreasing interest in the topic.

On the other hand, even if public interest is waning, media coverage certainly isn’t.

Read more: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2015/09/26/what-data-tells-us-about-public-interest-in-climate-change-and-its-global-news-coverage/

Out of interest I modified the original Forbes search terms (see the Forbes article for the original), to produce the graph at the top of this page. The modifications were adding the terms “COP21”, “COP 21” and “Paris Climate Conference”, and ticking the box to include Google’s search forecast for the next few months. Click here to see the Google big data web page.

Forbes reports there are a few exceptions to this general complete lack of interest. Small impoverished island states and some third world countries, which have been blitzed with dubious predictions of imminent climate catastrophe, and bombarded with empty promises of climate cash, are showing strong interest in climate issues. I suspect interest will rapidly wane in the wake of the upcoming Paris conference, when they realise it has all been a load of hype.

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Parakoch
September 26, 2015 11:42 pm

One more interesting search term:
“climate conference”
(try with and without quotation marks)
There’s been some rather small interest in the 2010 conference, and some very small interest in 2008, but that’s it.

Parakoch
Reply to  Parakoch
September 26, 2015 11:43 pm

Quick, hide the decline!
SCNR…

Reply to  Parakoch
September 27, 2015 10:16 am

+1 !!!

lokenbr
September 26, 2015 11:57 pm

It seems that folks are much more concerned about the coming Zombie Apocalypse than COP21, according to Google trends…
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=COP21%2C%20Paris%20Climate%20Conference%22%2C%20Zombie%20Apocalypse&cmpt=q&tz=Etc%2FGMT-10

September 27, 2015 12:18 am

I think you are right about the interest shown by small impoverished nations. On TVNZ news tonight, there was an item saying that the big man in East Timor has offered a home to that “World’s First Climate Change refugee” recently deported from New Zealand. I suppose some idiotic Greenie will now say that this confirms him as a climate refugee!

pat
September 27, 2015 12:22 am

same as there is no interest in these so-called “climate protests”. apart from the organisers (always a lengthy list) and their friends, no-one turns up.
PIC: Another Climate Prediction Fizzles: DC Climate Rally for Pope shrinks from expected 200,000 people to just ‘hundreds’
http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/09/24/another-climate-prediction-fizzles-dc-climate-rally-for-pope-shrinks-from-expected-200000-to-just-hundreds/

William Astley
September 27, 2015 12:37 am

NGC will generate interest.
The majority of the warming in the last 150 years was caused by solar cycle changes, rather than the increase in atmospheric CO2. An observation to support that assertion (prove that assertion) would be significant global cooling.
This is one of the first NGC stories. Unfortunately the media interviewed the cult of CAGW so the entire story concerns zombie theories and manipulated data.
The cult of CAGW did not mention the fact that there is a cold blob that has started in the Northern Pacific and there has been a cold blob in the southern hemisphere for almost three years. I am curious when the cult of CAGW will inform the public that the solar cycle has been interrupted and there was no AGW. AGW has the fraud of the millennium.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2015/09/24/why-some-scientists-are-worried-about-a-cold-blob-in-the-north-atlantic-ocean/
http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/

Why some scientists are worried about a surprisingly cold ‘blob’ in the North Atlantic Ocean

Greenland Ice sheet melt started two months late, last summer.
http://beta.dmi.dk/uploads/tx_dmidatastore/webservice/e/n/i/b/m/Melt_combine.png
The cult of CAGW neglected to mention that the Greenland Ice Sheet gained 200 Gt 2014/2015.
http://beta.dmi.dk/en/groenland/maalinger/greenland-ice-sheet-surface-mass-budget/
Big surprise, when there is an abrupt change to the solar cycle the planet cools.
http://iopscience.iop.org/1742-6596/440/1/012001/pdf/1742-6596_440_1_012001.pdf

The peculiar solar cycle 24 – where do we stand?
Solar cycle 24 has been very weak so far. It was preceded by an extremely quiet and long solar minimum. Data from the solar interior, the solar surface and the heliosphere all show that cycle 24 began from an unusual minimum and is unlike the cycles that preceded it. We begin this review of where solar cycle 24 stands today with a look at the antecedents of this cycle, and examine why the minimum preceding the cycle is considered peculiar (§ 2). We then examine in § 3 whether we missed early signs that the cycle could be unusual. § 4 describes where cycle 24 is at today.

The red on this graph is caused by solar wind bursts which in turn are caused by coronal holes, not sunspots. When the coronal holes shrink and/or move to high latitude regions of the sun where they no longer affect planetary temperature NGW will end.
http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.9.24.2015.gif
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/davis-and-taylor-wuwt-submission.pdf

Davis and Taylor: “Does the current global warming signal reflect a natural cycle”
…We found 342 natural warming events (NWEs) corresponding to this definition, distributed over the past 250,000 years …. …. The 342 NWEs contained in the Vostok ice core record are divided into low-rate warming events (LRWEs; < 0.74oC/century) and high rate warming events (HRWEs; ≥ 0.74oC /century) (Figure). … …. "Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice – shelf history" and authored by Robert Mulvaney and colleagues of the British Antarctic Survey ( Nature , 2012, doi:10.1038/nature11391),reports two recent natural warming cycles, one around 1500 AD and another around 400 AD, measured from isotope (deuterium) concentrations in ice cores bored adjacent to recent breaks in the ice shelf in northeast Antarctica. ….

During Dansgaard-Oeschger cooling cycles and during the interglacial terminating Heinrich events the jet stream increases in speed which results increased dust deposited on the Greenland Ice sheet. (Factor of 10 for Heinrich events. The dust comes from China.) The increase in wind speed, the increase in low level cloud cover, and the reduction in cirrus cloud cover causes the roughly 10C drop in high latitude ocean temperatures.
Greenland ice temperature, last 11,000 years determined from ice core analysis, Richard Alley’s paper. William: As this graph indicates the Greenland Ice data shows that have been 9 warming and cooling periods in the last 11,000 years.
http://www.climate4you.com/images/GISP2%20TemperatureSince10700%20BP%20with%20CO2%20from%20EPICA%20DomeC.gif
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-13/surging-jet-stream-winds-hinder-u-s-bound-flights-from-europe

Surging Jet-Stream Winds Hinder U.S.-Bound Flights From Europe
Stronger westerly headwinds for U.S.-bound flights are stretching out travel times, forcing some planes to stop for refueling. Trips such as London to New York, a busy business route, are running almost eight hours — 45 minutes longer than voyages in September.
Two Philadelphia-bound American Airlines flights, one from Brussels and the other from Amsterdam, had to touch down on Jan. 11 to refuel in Bangor, Maine, said Scott Ramsay, the carrier’s managing director of its integrated operations center. The journey from Brussels took 9 hours and 16 minutes, about an hour more than three months earlier, according to industry data tracker FlightAware.
Higher Costs
Flights across the Atlantic to eastern U.S. cities in December 2013 averaged 19 minutes later than a year earlier, according to industry data tracker MasFlight.com. Travel times in December 2014 were similar to those in 2013, MasFlight’s data from more than 1,300 flights a year showed.
With the threat of increasingly strong headwinds every winter, airlines face higher costs on those westbound flights with the use of extra fuel and the crew’s time.
“When you were planning to fly non-stop, stopping for fuel costs money,” said George Hamlin, president of Hamlin Transportation Consulting, who has more than 40 years of experience in commercial aviation and aerospace.

September 27, 2015 1:24 am

BOCC!
Bored of (sic!) Climate Change!

AndyG55
September 27, 2015 1:31 am

OT,,,
A message for any Aussies who voted Liberal (that’s Conservative down-under)…
According to Liberal party pollsters……
YOU DON’T MATTER
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/timblair/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/have_you_quit_the_liberal_party/
Sorry… but my blood is now BOILING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Mervyn
September 27, 2015 1:33 am

Forbes reports that, according to Google search statistics, the world’s media climate blitz has failed to date to spark any interest in global warming. The reason is simple … everyone knows that leading up to COP21 in Paris, the UN has gone about its business, patiently and skilfully, to ensure that the international agreement controlling fossil fuel energy will be signed in December by governments without the farce experienced in Copenhagen.
One of the last obstacles was Tony Abbott, Australia’s Prime Minister, who was a climate change sceptic. Lord Christopher Moncton had previously warned about the toppling of Abbott before the Paris Summit in favour of a Malcolm Turnbull led government (Turnbull being a global warming alarmist). Now that that has just happened, it’s almost certain that virtually all countries that matter are locked in. The agreement will at last be signed, and the ‘FIFA style bribery’ amongst poorer nations will have succeeded as they get their share from the the redistribution of wealth from the wealthy countries.
But what I anticipate, based on sound climate forecasting principles, is that as the world’s politicians and bureaucrats celebrate in Paris, Paris will experience one of the coldest winters for many years… and the UN will insult our intelligence by confirming the cold weather is due to dangerous man-made global warming.

Scarface
September 27, 2015 1:55 am

The more reason to fanatically oppose everything the COP21 is trying to achieve, in talks and blogs and what not.
When they can act ‘unseen’ they might achieve things nobody wants.

Science or Fiction
Reply to  Scarface
September 27, 2015 6:51 am

Silence is the ultimate weapon of power.
– Charles de Gaulle

Eliza
September 27, 2015 2:36 am

Big story abbot was kicked out because he was about to embark on an audit of the Australian Meteorological service
http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/28144/52/

Leigh
Reply to  Eliza
September 27, 2015 3:31 am

Sensing they might be on a “winner”,News com takes it a little further by telling you everything is above board at Australias beureu of meteorology in the way they carry out their worlds best secret adjustments and homogenisation with out actually divulging their methodology.
It’s not what Sherwood , news coms number one alarmist, trys to justify, it’s more about what he doesn’t say.
His story invites comments but I suspect he didn’t get what he was looking for.
Hence as of writing there is none.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/the-cyclone-tracy-of-ideological-battles-does-the-weather-bureau-tweak-data-or-is-our-government-paranoid/story-fnjwvztl-1227545670243

Leigh
Reply to  Leigh
September 27, 2015 3:36 am

Commentscare now up and not a real lot of support for this alarmist.

Jeef
September 27, 2015 2:50 am

COP21 will achieve nothing because all the delegates are looking forward to COP22 in Marrakesh, Morocco, this time next year…

hunter
September 27, 2015 2:57 am

The promoters of the AGW hype know there is little supportive interest in their apocalypse.
They have instead focused on suppressing opposition and criticism of their claptrap.

Ivor Ward
September 27, 2015 3:06 am

Well it seems that China has just blown COP21 out of the water. The money quote from Xi’s speech as follows:
“””Looking around the world, the peace and development remain the two major themes of the times,” the Chinese leader said at the summit in New York.
“To solve various global challenges, including the recent refugee crisis in Europe, the fundamental solutions lie in seeking peace and realising development.
“Facing with various challenges and difficulties, we must keep hold of the key of the development. Only the development can eliminate the causes of the conflicts,” Mr Xi said.””
DEVELOPMENT…repeat after me….DEVELOPMENT. No sustainable in there at all however the BBC spin it.

Jaakko Kateenkorva
September 27, 2015 3:35 am

Small impoverished island states

All right. Let’s exclude tax havens.
http://www.oecd.org/tax/harmful/listofunco-operativetaxhavens.htm

Charlie
September 27, 2015 4:06 am

It would interesting to know the ratio of skeptic interest searches to pro climate activism searches. That would be very telling especially considering the traffic this site gets.

Ryan
September 27, 2015 4:34 am

The only gloom and doom I see that will actually happen is a tax on the air we breathe.

Enginer
September 27, 2015 5:04 am

Most of my more intelligent friend realize that the Climate Change rhetoric is aimed at educing the entropy of living, so that the world might live a little longer. No t a bad thing in itself. However, population change, the real bug-a-boo, is best restricted by successful families who have little to fear and plenty to eat. Been proven over and over. Family size drops with prosperity. That’s one reason why the top 1% is only 1%.
Share the wealth more evenly! The wealthy cannot own the earth, although they are working at it.

michael hart
September 27, 2015 5:15 am

By a curious twist of fate, Google is today celebrating its 17th Birthday on the search page they show me.
So Google hasn’t seen any global warming in the satellite temperature records either.

mairon62
September 27, 2015 5:16 am

The recent change to the AP Style-Guide, dropping the use of the “D-Word” when writing about Climate Change, was probably a tactical marketing decision based on googlish feedback. The internet allows publishers to count the mouse-clicks to know if a word, slogan, title, etc. change is generating +/- volume for an individual story; 1/0. If a news consumer were to explore the issue of “climate change” they might have wondered why the people doing all the shrill name-calling are the good guys?
The mainstream media has decided to hide their claws and fangs as they go after us “non-believers”. Is that what we are now? I was hoping the MSM would go all in, double down and start calling us sceptics things like demon or warlock. And we could call them climate necromancers, but no, cooler heads have prevailed.

herkimer
September 27, 2015 5:22 am

Why would the public be concerned about a non existing global warming threat?
So what is really happening to global temperatures? (All data per NOAA CLIMATE AT A GLANCE)
The trend of annual land temperature anomalies since 2005 or the last 10 years has been flat or in a pause
Global -0.02C/decade
Northern Hemisphere -0.05 C/decade
Southern Hemisphere +0.06C/decade
Global Land Winter temperature anomalies have been trending down since 1977 or 19 years
GLOBAL -0.01 C/ decade
NORHERN HEMISPHERE -0.09 C/decade
NORTH AMERICA -0.54 C/decade
ASIA -0.49 C/ decade
EUROPE -0.05 C/ decade
North America land temperature anomalies have also been trending down mostly since 1977 except summers
WINTER -0.54C/ decade
SPRING -0.08C/ decade
SUMMER +0.23C / decade
FALL -0.03C/ decade
ANNUAL -0.10 C/ decade
US temperature anomalies have also been trending down mostly since 1998 or 18 years except spring and summers
ANNUAL -0.48 C/decade
WINTER -1.44 C/decade
SPRING +0.11C/decade
SUMMER +0.23 C/decade
FALL -0.50 C/ decade

1saveenergy
Reply to  herkimer
September 27, 2015 5:45 am

“Hmph. You can use facts to prove anything!” ….you need to believe the Great Gore, not facts !!

1saveenergy
Reply to  1saveenergy
September 27, 2015 5:48 am

note for readers in USA, that was an example of a sarcastic comment.

JohnKnight
Reply to  1saveenergy
September 28, 2015 8:21 pm

Thanks ever so much.

Adrian Mann
September 27, 2015 6:22 am

However, if we put that Google data into a multi-billion dollar model and make some predictions using a “novel statistical analysis”, we can see that the internet is actually ablaze with interest and will shortly eclipse all other topics. This is 97% certain. Anyone who says otherwise is just a cherry-picking denier and can’t face the facts!

Scottish Sceptic
September 27, 2015 6:52 am

The dead parrot talks are … well dead:
https://youtu.be/4vuW6tQ0218

emsnews
September 27, 2015 8:07 am

Our rulers do NOT want us interested in the Paris talks. They are going to steal money from us and it is all about hidden taxes which ARE going to be imposed on us due to CO2, plant food, our exhalations. We will pay through the nose and the rulers don’t care if the general public is snoozing during these negotiations on a gigantic tax on plant food.

Joseph Adam-smith
Reply to  emsnews
September 27, 2015 11:48 pm

That’s a very good point. Our so-called leaders are happy when the people ignore them and let them get on with wasting our money.

Sparks
September 27, 2015 12:31 pm

When cool periods occur does co2 fall with temperature?

JohnKnight
Reply to  Sparks
September 27, 2015 7:57 pm

Sparks,
As I understand it, yes in general, due to increased uptake by surface waters among other things. Cooler water can absorb more CO2, as the surface temps rise again, warming water releases part of it’s then “excess” CO2 load. With the oceans as vast an deep as they are that’s a big part of the complex cycling that’s always going on. Plants tend to take up more CO2 in warm weatther, less in cool, so that’s another factor . .