Usually we are treated to scare stories about sea level rise inundating NYC, this one says its worse than that, by the 21st century, they’ll be like “Okies”. From the CARNEGIE INSTITUTION, and the department of modeled scare-de-jour, comes this claim:
End-of-century Manhattan climate index to resemble Oklahoma City today
Washington, DC– Climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions will alter the way that Americans heat and cool their homes. By the end of this century, the number of days each year that heating and air conditioning are used will decrease in the Northern states, as winters get warmer, and increase in Southern states, as summers get hotter, according to a new study from a high school student, Yana Petri, working with Carnegie’s Ken Caldeira. It is published by Scientific Reports.
“Changes in outdoor temperatures have a substantial impact on energy use inside,” Caldeira explained. “So as the climate changes due to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the amount of energy we use to keep our homes comfortable will also change.”
Using results from established climate models, Petri, under Caldeira’s supervision, calculated the changes in the number of days over the last 30 years when U.S. temperatures were low enough to require heating or high enough to require air conditioning in order to achieve a comfort level of 65 degrees Fahrenheit. She also calculated projections for future days when heating or air conditioning would be required to maintain the same comfort level if current trends in greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked.
Looking forward toward the end of this century, her calculations found that Washington state will have the smallest increase in air conditioning-required days and southern Texas will have the largest increase. Likewise, upper North Dakota, Minnesota, and Maine would have the largest decrease in heating-required days and southern Florida would have the smallest decrease.
Petri then took this inquiry one step further and looked at a sum of heating-required days and cooling-required days in different regions both in the past and in future projection, to get a sense of changes in the overall thermal comfort of different areas.
“No previous study has looked at climate model projections and tried to develop an index of overall thermal comfort, which is quite an achievement,” Caldeira said.
Today, the city with the minimum combined number of heating- and cooling-required days, in other words the place with the most-optimal outdoor comfort level, is San Diego. But the model projected that in the same future time frame, 2080-2099, the climate would shift so that San Francisco would take its place as the city with the most-comfortable temperatures.
Other changes predicted by the model are that the amount of heating and cooling required in New York City in the future will be similar to that used in Oklahoma City today. By this same measure, Seattle is projected to resemble present day San Jose, and Denver to become more like Raleigh, NC, is today.
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The authors used the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
What a coincidence. Just checked my electric bill from my Coop and it shows
Cooling Degree Days 386
Heating Degree Days 0
What in the H*11 does that mean?
Let me go on and I quote from the back of my bill.
Heating and Cooling Degree Days
Heating and cooling degree days can be used to relate how much more or less you might spend on heating or air conditioning.
To calculate the heating degree days for a particular day, find the day’s average temperature by adding the day’s high and low temperatures and dividing by two. If the number is above 65, there are no heating degree days that day. If the number is less than 65, subtract it from 65 to find the number of heating degree days.
Cooling degree days are also based on the day’s average minus 65. They relate the day’s temperature to the energy demands of air conditioning. For example, if the day’s high is 90 and the day’s low is 70, the day’s average is 80. 80 minus 65 is 15 cooling degree days.
Come on you math guyes, make a model of it!
This is old hat load calculation methodology from the HVAC industry. It burns entire city climate data into a few numbers that can be easily referenced and interchanged into a design calculation. The basic concept is used for deciding how much A/C you are using and how big you need to build your unit. I think this is actually more applicable than many of you think, but it is definitely at a broader and vaguer range than y’all are trying to make it.
Not sure which is more absurd, the fact that intelligent people spent time on this study, or that it made it to publication. . Almost just as interesting/useful as a study that predicts how the average number of goose pimples in a city will change as the climate changes. Which cities goose pimples changes more? Stay tune for the riveting results.
Now they should spend more time calculating the effect on the C02 level and climate by producing such a meaningless study. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/08/28/met-office-supercomputer-a-megawatt-here-a-megawatt-there-and-pretty-soon-were-talking-real-carbon-pollution/
Monumental waste of time and energy.
“Monumental waste of time and energy.”
No 97% of all believers will….believe, it re-enforces the message on the road to Paris
IN eastern Australia you cannot by a electric blanket anywhere all sold out last night -2 in some places around Sydney sooooooooooooooo cold
Another person taking money from tax payers to talk bs.
I have a strange feeling that New York City will be like NYC and Oklahoma City will be like Oklahoma City – weather wise. Who wants to dispute that? Just based on my BS meter…
Is there anything wrong or weird with OK City?
Yes….it’s in America (:-))
I’ve never been to Oklahoma City. Is it a bad place?
No, its a great place to live. Greater OKC is quite large, spreads at least twenty miles all directions from downtown, much like Dallas but not so dense. Don’t quite understand why they think our climate is so bad to highlight it. Here is July’s report… abnormally cool again:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/climate/get_f6.php?city=okc&month=07&year=2015&fontsize=3
Quite mild the last couple of summers, feeling more like the cooler 70’s and early 80’s. If you were to judge the globe from OKC’s standpoint… it a cooling people, not warming. Could THAT be what they subliminally mean?
I guess your leftist friend doesn’t like Republicans there. It is still OK.
Off thread but I was delighted to hear the UK Met Office getting a hammering this am on the BBC Today programme particularly their climate change forecasts. Most unusual. The ice is beginning to crack.
Warmer is better…
I can’t find that on the Radio 4 ‘Listen Again’ website. Do you know what time it was on?
OK, found it. It is not actually the Today Programme, it’s a separate Quentin Letts programme aired at 10AM. Bishop Hill has links to it.
http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2015/8/5/the-point-of-the-met-office.html
It’s very good, Amazing to hear that on the BBC. What went wrong? How did it slip through?
Peter Lilley, who sat on the Select Committee on Climate Change, was very good.
“They need even more money for even bigger computers so they can be even more precisely wrong in future”
Roger Harrabin, the BBC climate change reporter (or whatever) had this to say: “Climate Sceptics have demanded ‘their’ programme. They just got it. Radio 4. 10.00”.
Surely it was 9am?
10 am is Woman’s Hour.
Actually it was the first part of a 4 part series entitles “What’s the Point of”.
I assume the second part is next week but probably won’t be about the MO.
The first part is repeated tonight at 9.30 pm.
This just demonstrates how far off models are from out putting reality.
Given that New York is surrounded by water, how could it possibly resemble Oklahoma City which is about as far away from the oceans that you can get?
Do they not know anything about how oceans mediate, moderate and control the climate?
It is why on the plains of Spain, it is frequently in the mid 40s (degC) in the Summer, and in the Winter frequently close to zero or below, whereas on the Spanish Costa (sitting on the Med and only a couple of hundred miles away ) it is rarely above 35degC in the Summer, and rarely below 12 degC in the Winter.
If a model can out put that garbage, there is only one place for it, in the bin.
Agree, I had the same thought, any idiot knows that being close to the Ocean has a dramatic impact on the weather and climate. That’s another reason people go to the shore in the summer. The onshore breezes in the evening bring in cool air from the ocean and displace the warm air generated during the day. How does that work in Oklahoma? The boardwalks along the Jersey coast are very pleasant even after the warmest of days.
wildlife seems to love oklahoma city dwelling-
Oklahoma City, OK
Wildlife Removal
405-437-1701
“Many of Oklahoma’s wild animals have learned to adapt and even thrive in our homes. For example some wildlife have found that attics make great places to live. Other animals find refuge under homes or porches. Invariably, these animals cause damage. Rodents, like squirrels and rats, love to chew on electrical wires once in an attic, and this causes a serious fire hazard. Raccoons can cause serious contamination in an attic with their droppings and parasites. Same goes for bat or bird colonies. We specialize in solving Oklahoma’s wildlife problems, from snake removal to large jobs like commercial bat control, we do it all”
I have a solution for critters in the attic. Squirrels gnawed their way into out attic and did a lot of damage (we had a hard time finding the hole). Mice followed. We sprayed cellulose insulation into the attic. It is treated with boric acid to make it fire resistant*. The boric acid hurts the eyes of the critters so they avoid the stuff. It’s been many years since there has been any trace of critters in the attic in spite of the fact that we found another gnawed hole. It appears that, once the squirrels got in, they decided not to stay.
*The National Research Council of Canada found that cellulose insulation did better in a fire than did fiberglass batts. The cellulose stays in place and prevents flame spread whereas the fiberglass melts. http://michaelbluejay.com/electricity/insulation.html
Have these idiots looked out the winow recently? It’s been a really chilly summer. I don’t think we’ve had more than half a dozen days over ninety and none over a hundred. I know, that’s only the weather….
The Allinskyite age of science: Deceive, dissemble, distract, scare, isolate, and never allow honest discussion
And drive major policy programs based on the list.
And the only thing “progressives” find scarier than Oklahoma is possibly Texas (outside of Austin).
This reminded me of another high schooler from some 8 years ago, Kristen Byrnes, who did a school paper called “Ponder the Maunder”, which became a website. She, unlike this student had both brains as well as gumption.
Sure don’t want to be living inside the virtual reality of a (broken) computer model.
… according to this model it is quite acceptable to use temperatures from Salt Lake City, Utah as a proxy for Tucson, Arizona or vice-versa.
I suppose next they’ll be publishing “scientific” papers by grade schoolers (under Caldeira’s “supervision”, of course) on the future effects of “climate change” on bunnies.
The children will lead us.
“No previous study has looked at climate model projections and tried to develop an index of overall thermal comfort, which is quite an achievement,” Caldeira said.”
Quite an achievement? I could do this in R in a few hours!! But then again I work in the private sector.
Wil the garbage reports and studies never end? I knew it was going to get bad leading up to Paris – but THIS BAD? Never in my wildest dreams.
At this rate we will have red state vs. blue state and up/down arrow journalism converted to science research.
“Changes in outdoor temperatures have a substantial impact on energy use inside,’ Caldeira explained. ”
Well, thank heavens for scientists, I am sure no lay person could have figured that out.
THIS is the crucial sentence:
“Using results from established climate models, Petri, under Caldeira’s supervision, calculated the changes in the number of days over the last 30 years when U.S. temperatures were low enough to require heating or high enough to require air conditioning in order to achieve a comfort level of 65 degrees Fahrenheit.”
Get it? Their prediction is based on GCMs, a common base assumption for “me too” pro-AGW articles. A series of articles published in WUWT recently have demonstrated how wrong the GCMs are.
In my native language we have a saying that is used to illustrate utter falsehood of a statement: “If THIS is true, then I am the Pope!” Logically correct: if A=.false., then whatever the value of B, the inference (A⇒B)=.true.
miso
Wouldn’t it be nice if a prediction were made for, say, 2020, so we could all see if the model works in our lifetimes. The prediction or projection for “the end of the century” is not falsifiable in the lifetime of scientists who are now living, and is therefore, useless, even dishonest.
What gets me is that nothing we can due today with CO2 will make one iota of difference as to whether the temperatures increase. At the current state of our knowledge about long term climate forcers, the proposed alarmist mitigation measures might very well send us into another mini ice age. Then we WILL be screwed! Life has no problem with warm weather, but ice is another story.
By the way,as an Okie for almost my entire life, NYC would be lucky to end up like OKC. I might actually go there to visit!