From NOAA NNVL:
July 2015 Ocean Temperatures –
Conditions are currently warming up in the Pacific, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the winter and most likely into the spring. This image shows the July 13-19, 2015 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific.
El Niño conditions are on the rise in the Pacific Ocean, this could potentially become a record event that might even beat the great 1997 El Niño as seen in the image above. We aren’t there yet, but the Climate Prediction Center has an advisory out that suggests we might be soon.
California could see an end to their drought situation, with the jet stream pattern changing to bring more winter storms to the south part of the state (hello mudslides).
If a record ENSO event occurs it would virtually guarantee that 2015 will become the warmest year “ever”, which will set off all sorts of calls for controlling global warming, 2C limits etc, even though El Niño has nothing to do with CO2 posited warming, being a natural event of its own.
Our own Bob Tisdale concurs that we are on the cusp: July 2015 ENSO Update – Tropical Pacific at the Threshold of a Strong El Niño
Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures for the week centered on July 8, 2015 are at 1.5 Deg C, the threshold a strong El Niño. Of course, the running 3-month average of the monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies would have to remain at or above that threshold for a number of months in order to register as a strong El Niño on NOAA’sOceanic NINO Index.
Ocean and hurricane specialist Dr. Philip Klotzbach has had some interesting insights into this on Twitter this week:
About 80% of ECMWF ensemble members have 2015 as the warmest El Nino since 1950 by September. pic.twitter.com/fKElvY6TCw
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 23, 2015
June PDO value is +1.54. Highest June value since '97. 12-month average values at highest levels since 97/98. pic.twitter.com/d9t8x7aGbz
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 21, 2015
Weekly Nino 3 index at 2.3C. Only two El Ninos since 1950 have had monthly Nino 3 values >= 2.3C ('82-'83, '97-'98). pic.twitter.com/DvEozApXNE
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 20, 2015
The 2015 El Niño is shaping up to be a big one
Then perhaps we should call it El Hombre.
Let us hope it’s enough to bust up the California drought.
Mike McMillan: Let us hope it’s enough to bust up the California drought.
A rainfall large enough to make a long-term difference will cause $$$ billions in damages. Other things being equal (granted, they never are), I would like to see a flood wipe out one of those new solar farms. Other things being equal (again, an imaginary state), loss of a solar farm would be much less costly than the loss of roads, bridges, schools, transformers, homes, and libraries with equal replacement prices.
Although El Nino has nothing to do with AGW, the increase in temperature caused by El Nino is on top of any warming from AGW.
And any warming from the natural changes since the LIA, of course.
But it’s reasonable to remark on the warmest year ever.
whats really narking me is..ok so maybe…USA might be a tad warmer but the planet is NOT Usa! the recent severe cold down south hem would be knocking that global avg around, as should have your prior cold winters that extended as did UK and EU.
sth america has snows n cold that have killed many animals and so have areas in asia,
amazing those never get media mention(not really)
“If a record ENSO event occurs it would virtually guarantee that 2015 will become the warmest year “ever”…”
Appears the ‘pause’ will be well and truely busted even using the satellite data – TLT being more sensitive to El N Warming than surface data. Unless, of course, the sensitivity of estimated TLT temperature has been so reduced by data processing that the effect of the El N doesn’t show!
On the positive side, if RSS & UAH show a good, fat El N spike, starting with this selected point and with a little statistical prestidigitation, this can be the start a new ‘pause’ 🙂
Unless, of course, temperatures drop back when El Niño ends.
” TLT being more sensitive to El N Warming than surface data”
=============================
Thanks VI. Now consider that the broken surface record is currently doing the opposite, moving more then the satellites in response to the El Nino. (strong indication of a faulty record)
The satellites are immune to UHI, faulty homogenization algorithms, lack of stations, changing of stations, movement of stations, and station setting errors. The surface record is broken, and the satellites currently show 1998 as FAR FAR warmer then 2010, 2014 and 2015. 2015 will not set a satellite record. 1998 was the warmest year on record for our atmosphere. CAGW theory demands that the troposphere warm more then the surface. It is not warming at all.
Before y’all get knotted knickers, if we get a strong El Nino it is not climate – it is weather. Get used to it.
this is not an el-nino .. looks like one sure .. my guess is over the next month all that cold next to SA will come up and break that band ..
if you follow the ocean patterns this is the cold pushing the heat ..might be far away but it’s the Antarctic that’s driving this .. just the same as it has done in the Atlantic ocean ..
That 2015 will be the ‘warmest ever’ was a given at the start of the year , with Paris coming up there was no chance of it being anything but this. So in one way this will have little affect , in another way any ‘real increase ‘ has opposed to ‘model increase’ so beloved of climate ‘science’ will cause problems has it will be jumped on has ‘proof’
The fact that El Nino is natural and nothing to do with man-made , is the part that ‘will not ‘ make the headlines .
The Pacific equatorial cold tongue is starting to develop. The Atlantic tongue is already quite cold.
30-day:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif
1-year:
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/globalsst_nowcast_anim365d.gif
Have you got similar 30-day animations for 1997 and 2002?
Edim,
Thank you.
Edim- What is the source data for this? Especially in the 30 day animated graphic, what is the source data support for 25JUL – 01AUG (forecast) period?
We just need Al Gore to travel to the Eastern Pacific area and El Niño will be over. Hey Gore, how about giving some Global Warming talks in Ecuador/Peru?
Best news of all…no landfalling US Major Hurricane for 10th consecutive year?
Sadly, luck will run out sometime. Imagine the wailing and gnashing of teeth that will go on when it does. Jim Cantore (of the Punxsutawney Weather Discovery Center Hall of Fame) has been waiting a long time …
Nylo,
The Atlantic has been pretty quiet so far this year. Look at the cold water pushing into the Eastern Atlantic off Africa from ‘Edim’ comment above. But the Gulf of Mexico is warm so it may be fewer named storms (24 hour non events at sea) but if one forms in the gulf, well its gotta go somewhere.
I’m hoping for none.
I think Joe Bastardi called for a cold US winter with lots of snow, iirc. Perhaps Mr. Bastardi will show up soon 🙂
Hopefully the cold will show up before the Paris circus gets started.
So far our Summer is about 10F below normal, we had a -22F morning last winter, and the ground froze past near 3′, if this keeps up this winter is going to be colder than last.
If it moderates our east US winters, compared to the last two, I’m all for it. Mild, wet winters were the rule in the late 1990’s.
That was due to air coming north out of the gulf, with cold blasts out of Canada, it’s switching to being mostly out of Canada.
I think this represents the difference in climate here between now and the colder 60’s and 70’s, just which side of the jet stream we’re (41N,81W) on.
Plus, NSIDC show Arctic sea ice area currently at its highest since at least 2010. Unless there is a massive melt from now, the minimum summer level will have been roughly stable for three years.
Above was meant as a response to Rob @ur momisugly 4.40am
El Nino is an earth bound intrinsic climatic factor which is not going to push the climate into some kind of a new regime.
The main climate drivers Milankovitch Cycles, Solar Variability. Geo Magnetic Field Strength ,Land Ocean Arrangements are trending toward colder times ahead.
In addition the PDO/AMO should trend to a cold phase and ENSO going forward will be featuring less El Nino’s after this one ends, if PDO reverts to it’s cold phase.
Will a strong El Nino be a good or bad thing?
Good for some, bad for others.
Bad for all if the alarmist can barter it into more CO2 reductions.
13 degrees C (55f) here in Southern England – late July! And we’ve had 2 inches of rain, with a further 2 inches forecast. My wife says she would have had 4 four inches by midnight. What?
my wife had the electric blanket switched on last night. now the east coast of scotland may not be the warmest place in the world in summer, but even here that is unusual for july.
El Nino, is unfortunately for AGW enthusiast a natural climatic event having nothing to do with their absurd theory.
Is it still possible for an extreme climatic event to be natural?
Of course. All the extreme events in earth’s past were natural. Take a look around at some of earth’s geography; it’s pretty obvious some dire things happened in the past.
Given that claim that cooling is ‘proof ‘ of global warming why do you think they will not jump on any increase in the temperature the El Nino brings will not also be jumped on has ‘proof ‘ ?
What.s it going to be? Weak, moderate, strong? See Hamlington et al. this year in JGR.
Big El Ninos have been steadily increasing in intensity since 1950 which lends some credibility to the notion that El Nino events mediate global warming via a ‘step up’ process. The really strong period of warming from 79 to 98 was marked by a definite preponderance of moderate to strong El Ninos over La Nina conditions. The 97/98 super El Nino was the punctuation mark at the end of this warming which stepped up global temperatures to a plateau; a long period of little or no warming where La Nina conditions have dominated. If I was to hazard a guess, I would say that if, as expected, a strong, super, even Jurassic[!] El Nino happens this year, it WILL define a new era of global mean surface temperatures – cooling. So any spike will be brief and cooling thereafter sustained and significant. I could be wrong and it might herald a new era of rapid warming, but this doesn’t seem to me to make a lot of sense, looking back over past ENSO data and the actuality of global climate at present.
even though El Niño has nothing to do with CO2 posited warming, being a natural event of its own.
Sorry, but on present evidence, CO2-induced increases in the intensity of El Niño can not be ruled out. Step changes in the measured characteristics of dynamic systems can result from steady inputs. Computational and experimental examples are presented in nearly all introductory texts, such as “Modern Thermodynamics” by Kondepudi and Prigogine.
On the whole, I think that present evidence is more supportive of a weak effect for CO2 on global warming, rather than a strong effect, but I do not think CO2 can be positively ruled out.
There is no evidence that El Nino and CO2 are connected because the premise behind the connection was suppose to be El NINO, being a result of a persistent lower tropospheric hot spot which is not present. The basic reasoning as called for by AGW theory has once again failed to materialize.
Al the basic atmospheric processes that AGW theory has called for have not come to see the light of day. The theory is wrong.
Salvatore Del Prete: The theory is wrong.
Probably. I am not convinced.
Mat – Would an analysis using an equation (derived using the first law of thermodynamics) which, with the only input being sunspot numbers, produced a 97% match to measured temperatures since before 1900 convince you? It can be found at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
“All the basic atmospheric processes that AGW theory has called for have not come to see the light of day. The theory is wrong.”
Yes, and a good point. Everything predicted has failed to come to pass. When does total failure of your scientific predictions finally falsify your theory?? Karl Popper call your office!
markstoval says: “Everything predicted has failed to come to pass.”
…
http://www.universetoday.com/94468/1981-climate-change-predictions-were-eerily-accurate/
@ur momisugly Joel D. Jackson July 24, 2015 at 2:16 pm
What a joke that link was! One paper from ’81 that no one paid any attention to and was “rediscovered” by someone? Ah come on.
And this:
No warming for dang near 20 years, no warming more than expected coming out of the Little Ice Age since the LIA and these people say “looking down the barrel of the global warming gun”? Jesus, Joseph, and Mary!
James Hansen has never gotten a prediction right. You can bank on that. (well, other than predicting that the CAGW racket would pay off big time — that he got right)
Dan Pangburn: Would an analysis using an equation (derived using the first law of thermodynamics) which, with the only input being sunspot numbers, produced a 97% match to measured temperatures since before 1900 convince you?
It would depend on how well it fit out-of-sample data over the next few decades. At this point, model fits are about a dime a dozen.
Mathewr – You said “model fits are about a dime a dozen”. Help me out here. I have not found any other models which are developed from the energy equation and match all 5-year smoothed, measured average global temperature anomalies since before 1900 with R^2 better than 0.97.
Dan,
“and match all 5-year smoothed, measured average global temperature anomalies since before 1900 with R^2 better than 0.97.”
Here where I urge caution, I don’t believe global temperature series are accurate. I think they use some measurements and then process those measurements with an energy model to account for at least on a global level poor sampling for the entire series.
You could easily have just reproduced their energy model, to which a good match would be expected.
The big issue as I see it is that a latitude based surface model can’t accurately account for the differing path of the jet stream and the dividing line between polar and tropical air masses, which in turn get moved by the state of the ocean. Remember that the PDO wasn’t even discovered until after the declaration of AGW and the first global temperature series.
@ur momisugly micro6 – I see I left out the word ‘reported’ and should also point out that I used the data as reported at the time (2012) and that I used NOAA, HadCRUT4, HadCRUT3, and GISS. I ‘normalized/averaged’ them to HadCRUT4 as described in the text at http://globaltem.blogspot.com . All reported data that exists that far back is used; no ‘sampling’.
I am certain the reported temperature changes do not represent energy changes of the planet and discuss this in the section titled ‘Temperature measurement uncertainty’ in http://globaltem.blogspot.com and the section titled ‘Ocean oscillations’ in http://climatechange90.blogspot.com/2013/05/natural-climate-change-has-been.html . The effect of the random uncertainty is ameliorated by using the 5-year running average. Also, the absolute accuracy is not relevant because the equation is calibrated to the reported measurement anomalies. Changing their data or their methods (as they have recently) however, is problematic.
Because I applied the energy equation to the entire planet as a single entity, it does not matter if they used an energy equation to interpolate between measured locations.
Latitude, jet stream, tropical, etc. are addressing how energy moves around the planet and do not address the planet as a single entity, as in ‘global’.
The term PDO was indeed coined in 1997 by Hare (Mantua, et al, 1997) but the phenomena has been researched over the past millennium (MacDonald and Case, 2005).
The analysis at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com accounts for only two things, ocean cycles and sunspot numbers, and achieves a better than 97% match with a 5-year running average of ‘least biased’ reported measured temperatures. That means that the influence of everything else must find room in the remaining less-than 3%.
Any CO2 additions to the oceans would have to occur under La Nina conditions. Why? With evaporation discharge of stored heat ruling El Nino warmed equatorial sea surfaces, CO2-sourced longwave radiation would not be able to heat to any depth and instead would be immediately evaporated off the surface. You would then only have a wind-blown La Nina type condition left as the condition where such longwave radiation could be mixed into the top ocean layer.
Using two ODP sites, one in the warm pool and another off Peru, Heather Ford found Reduced ENSO during the last glacial maximum. On the other hand, using corals, Kim Cobb found both increased frequency and intensity of ENSO during the little ice age.
Let’s just say the jury is still out on how pre human influenced atmospheric temperature affects ENSO and on what time scales these influences might apply.
Why no one pays attention to anomalies of pressure over the polar circle?
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.gif
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=23&startmonth=06&startyear=2015&starttime=00%3A00&endday=25&endmonth=07&endyear=2015&endtime=00%3A00&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
The coming winter will be similar in North America to the previous two, and the Northeast can be fierce because the AMO is in decline.
The decrease in solar activity means increased pressure on the Polar Circle.
ren
lts not just North America that’s at risk of a cold winter this year. Whats been happening over NW Russia as also been of interest to me. As l now believe l understand what the basic weather patterns need to be to take the Atlantic side of the NH into “ice age” type climate cooling. But its a bit off topic on this tread, so l will wait for a more suitable topic before l go into more details.
matthewrmarler July 24, 2015 at 11:44 am
There hasn’t been a strong El Nino since 1997/98 and the current one looks weaker based on similar time stages before they peak and also much cooler waters already developing off Peru. Since then CO2 has risen 35 ppm and yet 18 years later we still wait one to match it, never mind beat it. If it was CO2 related then why has taken this long and why have strong El Ninos occurred many thousands of years ago while CO2 levels were much lower? One mechanism that does match the change in the ENSO are the changes in global clouds and especially over the tropics. Changes in cloud levels in the tropics significantly affect the ocean absorbing solar radiation of which the ENSO is entirely derived from.
I expect this El Niño to reach it peek in the next few months.
I’m currently working with an Artificial Neural Network or an ANN which I built. I use this ANN to make ENSO predictions. I’ve cracked the ENSO code.
I few months ago I got a breakthrough by applying a new approach. I use Moon Cycles, solar and Earth magnetic data as input.
The training period is from 1979 up to 2004. I have two test periods. The first called Calc12 which is from 2005 and up to 2012. The second is Called Calc15 which is from 2005 and up to 2015. After the test period follows forecast estimations. During these periods I use estimates of the solar data and data on Earth’s magnetic data where I add on the trend noise to simulate these values to be in line with the expected trend.
As you can see the ENSO peek is near and which naturally followed by a drop into La Niña territory at the end of 2016. I’m now going to continue to make the same type of predictions on NINO1+2 and NINO3+4 temperature anomalies. There are still works for me to do, because there are still more improvements I could make by using better data. ENSO is mainly a tidal phenomenon.
I didn’t get the graphs included in the message above over my ENSO predictions.
So I try again
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/ENSO-solar-tidal-impact.jpg
http://www.global-warming-and-the-climate.com/images/ENSO-forecast.jpg
Per, mmmmm, your prediction graph for 2019-20 sort of matches Ian from above “3rd FULL MOON EPOCH [1993-94 to 2024-25]
1997-98 –> 2006 –>. 2015-16 –> 2024-25 with 2019-20 as a possible half cycle”
Go ahead and run your ANN to 2025 and show us what you get.
Maybe you guys are onto the same thing here.
You said, “During these [training] periods I use estimates of the solar data and data on Earth’s magnetic data where I add on the trend noise to simulate these values to be in line with the expected trend.”
Two issues:
1) I assume the noise you speak of is ENSO data. If it is your models are filled with auto-correlation, meaning that you have not cracked the ENSO code.
2) Please include a link to your data (the estimates and noise you speak of) and calculations (what sort of math you do with the data) so that your work can be replicated.
Why? It would be to your advantage to have more than your own two eyes looking at your work (insurance against bias). You will avoid mistakes you can’t see and possibly end up with a much improved product.
About 1) No I’m not talking about ENSO noise. The noise I talked about is noise I added on the input data related to solar and magnetic data on the forecast part, in other words for the future after 2014. Of course I don’t know with precision this future data, but I know the overall trend. In the coming years these values should decrease as we are closing in on the coming solar minima between cycle 24 and 25.
2) I do correspond with scientists in this field, so I’m not alone. Although I’m not working in academia. I’m an independent researcher.
I didn’t came up with a theory and from there used data which I tortured until I got what I wanted. No, not at all. Instead I studied the data with my ANN and to my surprised I found the link and mechanism between the tidal lunar cycle and its connection to ENSO more by accident.
I can conclusively state that ENSO is a phenomenon which is mostly driven underlying forces. These underlying forces are driven by tidal lunar cycle variations and by electromagnetic variations of the sun of which the lunar tidal cycle variations is the most important one. When I read the comments here at WUWT it becomes apparent that others are on the right track. Howe ever the trick is to find a way to combine lunar and solar effects together.
The primary goal I have now is to improve my ENSO forecasts further and by doing so to solidify what I found. There are some ways I can do that. One way is to use solar and magnetic data with higher resolution and to make some optimization. This should result in better response from these data. Another way is to compensate for possible overfitting of the ANN, by limiting the number of iterations and by setting limit of the error threshold a bit above the received minimal error value that I currently get. Yet another way is to use magnetic data going back in time which goes back nearly a century and by doing that I would get better statistics.
I’ve just during the last days looked into NINO 1+2 and NINO 3+4 temperature anomlies and I looked if I could get good results with my ANN. It turned out to be more difficult than expected than it is with the MEI data I have used so far.
I am going to produce an ensample set of forecasts with unique set of weight values, network setups and I’m also going to add different noise forecast setup by using unique random seeds. By doing this it would give me a better grip on the accuracy and the volatility of the forecasts I generate with the ANN I currently use.
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