From NOAA NNVL:
July 2015 Ocean Temperatures –
Conditions are currently warming up in the Pacific, and the NOAA Climate Prediction Center expects a greater than 90% chance that El Niño will continue through the winter and most likely into the spring. This image shows the July 13-19, 2015 sea surface temperature departure from the 1981-2010 average. In addition to the warmer than normal waters generated by the El Niño conditions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is also creating persistently higher than normal sea surface temperatures in the northeastern Pacific.
El Niño conditions are on the rise in the Pacific Ocean, this could potentially become a record event that might even beat the great 1997 El Niño as seen in the image above. We aren’t there yet, but the Climate Prediction Center has an advisory out that suggests we might be soon.
California could see an end to their drought situation, with the jet stream pattern changing to bring more winter storms to the south part of the state (hello mudslides).
If a record ENSO event occurs it would virtually guarantee that 2015 will become the warmest year “ever”, which will set off all sorts of calls for controlling global warming, 2C limits etc, even though El Niño has nothing to do with CO2 posited warming, being a natural event of its own.
Our own Bob Tisdale concurs that we are on the cusp: July 2015 ENSO Update – Tropical Pacific at the Threshold of a Strong El Niño
Weekly NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures for the week centered on July 8, 2015 are at 1.5 Deg C, the threshold a strong El Niño. Of course, the running 3-month average of the monthly NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies would have to remain at or above that threshold for a number of months in order to register as a strong El Niño on NOAA’sOceanic NINO Index.
Ocean and hurricane specialist Dr. Philip Klotzbach has had some interesting insights into this on Twitter this week:
About 80% of ECMWF ensemble members have 2015 as the warmest El Nino since 1950 by September. pic.twitter.com/fKElvY6TCw
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 23, 2015
June PDO value is +1.54. Highest June value since '97. 12-month average values at highest levels since 97/98. pic.twitter.com/d9t8x7aGbz
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 21, 2015
Weekly Nino 3 index at 2.3C. Only two El Ninos since 1950 have had monthly Nino 3 values >= 2.3C ('82-'83, '97-'98). pic.twitter.com/DvEozApXNE
— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) July 20, 2015