People send me stuff. What I received reminded me of this famous quote from NCDC’s Dr. Tom Peterson back in 2011
In this case multiple sources have sent me a press release and advance copies of a paper that would easily qualify Dr. Peterson’s remark.
Tomorrow at 2PM EDT, there will be a press release from the American Association for the advancement of Science (AAAS) about a paper from NCDC published in the journal Science. Since there is an embargo in place, and while I got the information second hand and am not bound by the terms of its advance release to journalists, I’m still going to honor that embargo. So, I can’t give the title or anything else about it, but I wanted to give everyone a heads up.
Why? Well despite the embargo, the paper and the press release that goes with it is quietly being circulated among journalists to get advance stories written. It’s an unfair advantage given to a select few that I aim to correct. So, I don’t feel at all bad about giving other media people a heads up to ask NCDC and AAAS if they can get into the “inner circle” of elite journalists who got this PR to the exclusion of others. So much for equal access. Isn’t government funded science great?
NCDC is hoping for a big splash, and they’ll probably get it in some of the usual media circles, except, WUWT has already found the fatal weakness in the paper, and we’ve drained the pool ahead of time.
Tune in here tomorrow at 2PM EDT (11AM PDT) and you’ll see why this is the most mendacious attempt yet to save their climate science from the terrible ravages of an uncooperative planet.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
http://www.les7duquebec.com/7-de-garde-2/non-le-giec-nest-pas-un-organisme-objectif/
Steve Godard regularly posts GIFS of overlaid graphs showing the alterations that have been made over time. Some of them are so radical that it’s hard to believe anyone would think they could get away with such shenanigans!
How about a ‘doctored’ graphs page to go along with Sea Ice, Solar, Ocean etc….?
NOAA makes mess of perfectly good data !
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/NOAA-gmd.gif
Mr. NOAA try to do spectral analysis on your data.
Mr. NOAA you are keeper of the world’s geomagnetic data, stop making mess of it.
Mr. NOAA give back to the scientists what the science gave to you!
p.s : follow the UK’s Met Office example! They were informed (by author of this comment) of the flaw in their CET data algorithm and they CORECTED IT !
Yes, the corrected it.
Whatever the alleged reasons for the adjustments one can’t help but feel that in an ever decreasing warming world adjustments are becoming the gold standard for climate science. Where’s there’s a will there’s a way!
Dr. Phil Jones – CRU emails – 5th July, 2005
“the ‘no upward trend’ has to continue for a total of 15 years before we get worried.’ Dr. Phil Jones – CRU
So Phil Jones is now “worried” that the world isn’t ending – what a fool.
‘WUWT has already found the fatal weakness in the paper,’
If the weakness are based on facts , reality or honest data , they sadly I have to tell you there not weakness at all for none of those actual have a high level of value in an argument that is not factually based in the fist place.
We have seen often enough how the scientifically worthless is promoted by both press and politicians , endlessly defended by those in climate ‘science’ becasue it offers support for ‘the cause ‘ . Mann’s stick may be the classic case but it far from the only one . And although we may ask how do they think they can get away with it , the answer is simple , becasue they have so many times before .
Their job is to continually re-invent new “clothes” for the Warmist emperor, and ours is to point out they really aren’t clothes at all. That’s just the way things are.
This article was 3rd down on my Yahoo this morning.
It’s the first time I’ve seen a direct link to WUWT there.
Well I don’t think you can argue with Mann’s hockey stick.
http://www.dreamwitness.com/WUWT/WUWT%203.jpg
For those interested;
Danish Proffessor Ole Humlum has an excellent site “Climate4you” site with lots of data plus a number of very interesting historical events in the links that cover the last couple of centuries and which are very relevant to much of the current discussion.
Ole Humlum provides a number of graphs in the “Global Temperature” section which highlight the ever increasing differences in the temperature anomalies between older temperatures and present temperatures created by the bigoted and ever warming “adjustments [??]” of the official keepers of the Earth’s global temperature data.
Ie; In the example from the NCDC in May 2008 , the January temperature anomalies between January 1915 and January 2000 were given by the NCDC as 0.39C
By May 2015 the temperature anomalies between the same January 1915 and January 2000 historical periods the NCDC had “adjusted” those historical temperatures and had had jumped the differences to 0.52 C.
An increase of 0.13C in the historically recorded temperatures differences or anomalies between Jan 2015 and Jan 2000 which was achieved purely and entirely through the biased and bigoted “adjustments” used by the NCDC
This increase in those historical temperature comparisons was done by the NCDC through the medium of its highly biased and bigoted “adjustments” to those long recorded historical temperatures, adjustments that were made over that very recent 7 years long period, May 2008 to May 2015 and which Proff. Ole Humlum has graphed on his “Climate4you” site..
Ole Humlum also provides another example from GISS for the period January 1910 and January 2000 where in May 2008 the difference between those January’s were 0.45 C.
Whereas by May 2015 the difference had increased purely via GISS’s ongoing “adjustments” to past temperatures between that January 2010 temperatures and the January 2000 temperatures, the exact same identical period relying on the same historical data, to 0.69 C.
An “adjustment” of nearly a quarter of a degree, 0.24 C in a period of just seven years and this in a global temperature environment where the global increases in temperature were accepted as running at about 0.6C to 0.8C per century since the end of the LIA in the early part of the 19th century.
Climate4you; http://www.climate4you.com/
The range of the estimates of the change in global mean surface temperature in December 2014 was from 0.06C (GISS) to 0.15 (HadCRUT), a difference of 0.09C or approximately 10% of the total reported global mean surface temperature anomaly since 1880, in a single month. However, in each case, the reported anomaly change was just large enough to make 2014 “the warmest year on record”. Hmmmm!
I am not sure whether that makes these estimates precisely inaccurate, or inaccurately precise; or, both. 😉
Correction; second last para;
“Whereas by May 2015 the difference had increased purely via GISS’s ongoing “adjustments” to past temperatures between that January 1910 temperatures and the January 2000 temperatures, the exact same identical period relying on the same historical data, to 0.69 C.”
If SST’s are really getting so much warmer, we should see the effect on atmospheric temperatures per the satellite record.
We don’t – end of story.
Looks like ROM needs to do another correction
“An increase of 0.13C in the historically recorded temperatures differences or anomalies between Jan 2015 and Jan 2000 which was achieved purely and entirely through the biased and bigoted “adjustments” used by the NCDC”. Surely that should be 1915 instead of 2015?
ROM bangs head on desk; Alzheimer’s or maybe at 77 years old, the End is Near!
ROM, ROM, dear ROM, be kind to ROM. That was a TYPO. Your comment was excellent! Why, just yesterday, in my journal, I started to write what happened to me on June 3, 1015. And I’m quite aways behind you in the road race of life. Just laugh.
(Note: re Altzheimers: as we get older we need to be vigilant to remind and, thus, reassure ourselves, that we ALWAYS have forgotten things like “where did I park?” in a big parking lot and “where are those KEYS!!!” As long as you remember what the car keys are for, you’re fine!
#(:)) )
They have been complaining about the poor reliability of Bucket Sea Temps, but have completely glossed over the Calibration Errors that were found in the Argos bouy instruments. see the Jo Nova article here.
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/06/study-shows-argo-ocean-robots-uncertainty-was-up-to-100-times-larger-than-advertised/
Up to 2.0C errors found.
They have also glossed over the same kind of errors when comparing Mercury Thermometers and the new electronic ones.
So no pause? So no missing heat? I’m glad that’s been settled and we can all go home happy now.
============
The “Pause” has been a huge inconvenience and embarrassment for Warmunists, with some trying to deny it exists, while others were creating “explanations” for it. If they can off the “Pause” it would allow them to all be singing from the same hymnal in Paris, presenting a united front instead of one in disarray.
“some trying to deny it exists, while others were creating “explanations” for it.”
If the Pause “disappears” for some reason, do all of the papers creating explanations get retracted?
anyone in the tank for this B.S. will side with the scientists….what they don’t say is what is very concerning…we are cooling not warming.
Under the current liberal democrat emperor NOAA has become another corrupt bureau serving the will of odama; it exists for no other reason……
Makes me wonder how much idle speculation plays it’s part in the adjustments.
For example it is speculated that warmth has been “trapped” in the oceans for the last few decades, so have the measurements been adjusted to compensate for this trapped heat even though there is no proof of the oceans playing a new unprecedented role in climate?
At a certain point adjustments are not really “fixing” the data but just speculation on what the data should be.
As the witch said to Dorothy, you’re not in Kansas any more. BTW it is widely accepted now that the tornado in the Wizard of OZ was not caused by the evil witch but by global warming.
If the plateau didn’t exist, would the adjustments have been made?
Fred Singer weighs in at http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2015/06/the_climate_warming_pause_goes_awol.html In part:
The renowned National Climate Data Center (NCDC), a division of NOAA located in Asheville, NC, claims that the widely reported (and accepted) temperature hiatus (i.e., near-zero trend) is an illusion – just an artifact of data analysis – and that the global climate never really stopped warming.If true, what a blessing that would be for the UN-IPCC – and for climate alarmists generally, who have been under siege to explain the cause of the pause.
Of course, NCDC-NOAA and Science may end up with egg on their collective faces. It does look a little suspicious that NCDC arrived at this earth-shaking “discovery” after all these years, after “massaging” its own weather-station data, just before the big policy conference in December in Paris that is supposed to slow the rise of CO2 from the burning of energy fuels, coal, oil, and gas.
The bottom line
One can certainly argue about whether the NCDC results are correct –and I expect many months of back-and-forth.So, has global warming really stopped?We will know for sure in just a few years.
There will certainly be debate also about my proposition of no evidence at all for AGW.We will need a persuasive answer to the puzzle — why do land thermometers show a warming before 2000, but not after 2000?I may have an answer, but must first try to convince my colleagues.
One thing is quite certain, however: Current IPCC climate models cannot explain what the observations clearly show.This makes the models unsuitable for climate prediction – and for policy purposes generally.
which of course is why the Pause must be eliminated. It is a mortal blow to the model outputs, and by extension, to the IPCC agenda if it remains.
Has NCDC-NOAA been keeping the AMO data ‘warm’?
There is a rather ‘weird’ case of the North Atlantic’s SST multidecadal oscillation (de-trended version is the AMO) drifting further and further apart from the Arctic’s atmospheric multidecadal oscillation as it can bee seen HERE
The rate of drift has been constant at least since the 1890s. One rational explanation could be a slowdown in one of the Arctic overflow currents, possibly a major contributors to the AMOC.
According to the graph (see link above) a critical point in time can’t be far off.
I think it’s a good tactic by the warmists. Just deny the pause exists. As for the satellite temperature records just deny they exist too.
Yes, it has. Stopped or halted implies nothing about the future, whereas “paused” implies warming will re-commence. The only question now is; has cooling begun? There is evidence that it has, but we should know in a few years. What we do know for sure is that the Halt in warming shows the much-vaunted GCMs are pure unadulterated crapola.
Ah yes, Science magazine.
That paragon of virtue, truth, and rigorous review before publishing.
Especially if the article ‘fits the narrative’.
This little embarrassment happened just a week or so ago.
Link: (to one article of many in various newspapers)
http://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2015/may/28/science-retracts-same-sex-marriage-canvassers-michael-lacour
Title:
Science magazine retracts same-sex marriage and gay canvassers study
First couple of paragraphs in the ‘Guardian’ article:
Science magazine on Thursday formally retracted a highly publicized article about a study gauging the ability of openly gay canvassers to shift voters’ views toward support for same-sex marriage.
One of the authors of the article, Columbia University political science professor Donald Green, had requested the retraction on 19 May, saying his co-author, Michael LaCour, had been unable to produce the raw data that was used in the study.
Science magazine, after its own investigation, said it decided to proceed with the retraction even though LaCour – a graduate assistant at the University of California, Los Angeles – did not agree with that decision.
———————————————–
I guess the story was just too good to check….. until one of the authors realized he had been duped by the other one, and requested a retraction.
People send you stuff. *
Following your blog equals sitting on top of the world.
Thx – Hans
_____
* there’s known knowns, unknown knowns, …. that blog reduces the unknowing of unknowns.
“If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,”
– Barack Obama at a fundraiser in Philadelphia, 2008
http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2008/06/14/obama-if-they-bring-a-knife-to-the-fight-we-bring-a-gun/
So is Peterson holding the press conference, or the president?
Zeke is a jackass plain and simple and nobody should listen to him.