Given Lew and Oreskes latest admonition to scientists who use the word “pause” or “hiatus” it looks like they’ll be applying the “D” word to the entire AGU community of scientists any minute now. From the AGU website, EOS:
Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus

Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is helping to take up the world’s missing surface heat, the heat doesn’t linger; oceanographers now find that heat has moved over to the Indian Ocean.
Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee
By Christina Reed 21 May 2015
At the end of the 20th century, climate scientists noticed what they thought at first was an anomaly: a slowdown in the pace of global warming in the lower atmosphere. Today, it is a recognized trend that has lasted more than 15 years. Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.
In the latest report out of Nature Geoscience this week, University of Miami physical oceanographer Sang-Ki Lee and colleagues may have found some of this missing heat: The Pacific Ocean is keeping its cool by sending heat over to the Indian Ocean. This heat redistribution, the researchers say, could play a role in regulating the rate of global warming.
Oceans: A Complex Buffer
Rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.Why the global warming hiatus has happened and how long it will last is a mystery. However, scientists do know that the ocean has recently helped to buffer what was otherwise an accelerated surface warming, one that has not yet stopped. Warming in the upper atmosphere continues to show that the planet is undergoing a radiation imbalance.
However, rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.
“When I noticed from the hydrographic data that the Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing since 2003 or so, I was very surprised and puzzled,” Lee told Eos. “And when I found a large heat increase in the Indian Ocean, I was almost convinced that there was something wrong with the hydrographic data.”
How Does Heat Escape to the Indian Ocean?
Lee ran a computer model simulation and found that he could explain the difference if a massive amount of heat from the Pacific flowed through Indonesia’s archipelago into the Indian Ocean. However, how best to move the heat?
Warm water, like warm air, rises—or, rather, stays at the surface when nothing else is disturbing it. This is why, in a lake, the upper layer is warmer than the bottom layer.
To get warm surface water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean requires wind—and not just any wind. The trade winds need to be strong enough to push water from the eastern Pacific all the way across the ocean basin to the west, where it piles up and creates a region of above-average sea surface height.
Warm surface water can then flow like a river down around the Indonesian archipelago to the Indian Ocean. A difference in height of less than a dozen centimeters is enough to get the heat moving.
…
Full story here: https://eos.org/articles/tracking-the-missing-heat-from-the-global-warming-hiatus
Citation: Reed, C. (2015), Tracking the missing heat from the global warming hiatus, Eos, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO029947. Published on 21 May 2015.
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Here’s my brand spanking new hypothesis.
The trade winds now go below the surface of the ocean.
In so doing, they have blown the heat that was being stored in the depths of the Pacific Ocean to the depths of the Indian Ocean.
There – the science is settled – again.
Hmmm. The AGU is beginning to crack. That’s significant.
Everywhere they look, the warmists are seeing their precious theory’s acceptance disintegrating. I think it will go like the failure of a earthen dam, first a few minor leaks that become little rivulets which turn into streams that become gushing holes. Suddenly it fails all at once and the water pours out in a huge flood. We’re at the point now where we see the AGW proponents rushing feverishly about as they attempt to patch the holes.
It won’t be long now. One or two more winters like our last one should finish off the theory.
“Warm water, like warm air, rises—or, rather, stays at the surface when nothing else is disturbing it. This is why, in a lake, the upper layer is warmer than the bottom layer.” B-b-b-b-ut it’s hiding in the deep oceans….all that hot water is just lurking down there below 1000ft. Obama told me so.
Be vewy quiet. I’m hunting warmits.
Well the missing heat certainly isn’t in Caribou Maine this morning….If you know how to read a METAR, take a look at this;
KCAR 231109Z AUTO 30006KT 4SM -SN BR FEW005 BKN030 OVC036 01/M01 A2996
KCAR 231105Z AUTO 30007KT 2SM -SN BR FEW005 BKN026 OVC036 01/M01 A2996
KCAR 231054Z AUTO 29006KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR FEW005 FEW010 OVC017 01/M01 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP151 P0005 T00061006
KCAR 231040Z AUTO 31006KT 1SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC011 01/M01 A2995
KCAR 231011Z AUTO 31009KT 1/2SM SN FG VV009 01/M01 A2993
KCAR 230954Z AUTO 30008KT 3/4SM -SN BR FEW005 OVC011 01/M01 A2992 RMK AO2 SLP142 P0002 T00061006
KCAR 230944Z AUTO 30008KT 3/4SM -SN BR SCT005 OVC011 01/M01 A2992
KCAR 230941Z AUTO 30008KT 1SM -SN BR BKN005 OVC011 01/M01 A2992
KCAR 230927Z AUTO VRB06KT 1 1/4SM -SN BR OVC006 01/00 A2992
KCAR 230916Z AUTO 30006KT 2 1/2SM -SN BR OVC006 01/00 A2991
Happy Summer kids!!
p.s. It does look like a good snap-back this week for the Northeast/New England though….bit of a heatwave heading your way!
“Warming in the upper atmosphere continues to show that the planet is undergoing a radiation imbalance.”
Question: Is this a correct statement? I thought the upper atmosphere was cooling, due to added CO2, trapping heat in the lower atmosphere, that would otherwise “escape” to the TOA.
While watching Lew and Oreskes attempt a blackmail scheme on Christine McEntee and her ‘Climate Scientists Legal Defense Fund’ would be fun, 2 million is cash from AGU is small peanuts.
Rather Lew and Oreskes should set their goal higher and head to NYC and the UN where the UN ‘climate fund’ is getting set to dole out a few billion dollars since Japan made good on $1.5 Billion from their national treasury: http://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/u-n-climate-fund-gears-up-to-deploy-cash-after-japan-signs-1-5-bil-pledge
All they have to do is declare themselves a third-world climate endangered country, somewhere in the southern ocean, and try to do an ‘Omar The Beggar’ for a 100 million in cash. They might just get it.
Ha ha
Translation: two decades worth of global warming heat snuck from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean with no-one noticing; a computer model explains this subocean surface skulduggery.
AGU: “Warming in the upper atmosphere continues to show that the planet is undergoing a radiation imbalance.”
Is there warming there? Is there enough? I thought there wasn’t.
But hang on – I thought global warming went with stratospheric cooling. Has that changed now as well?
Yeah, that’s what I thought too. Is the upper atmosphere warming where all the missing heat has transferred?
When arguing with Warmists I find that mentioning the ‘hiatus’ makes [them] hate us even more!
Maybe “hiatus” has a hernia?
The cult of CAGW took 18 years to respond to the plateau of no warming.
I am curious as to the time periods when the media, politicians, and scientific community will abandon the cult of CAGW when faced with significant and dangerous cooling.
Observations continue to support the assertion that the solar cycle has been interrupted.
In the 1990’s paleo climatologists discovered evidence in the first Greenland ice sheet core data that some of the periodic 200yr, 500yr, 1500yr, and 8000yr, climate changes were rapid not gradual events. For example, the Greenland ice core data shows that the Younger Dryas abrupt cooling event, 12,900 years before present at which time the planet went from interglacial warm to glacial cold with 75% of the cooling in last than a decade.
The first Greenland ice core finding was not expected (the consensus belief/paradigm in the early 1990s was that climate changes were gradual) and many specialist at first asserted that the Greenland data must be incorrect as they believed the planet’s climate could not possibly change that as rapidly at the evidence indicated it did. A second Greenland ice core was drilled to confirm the observations were correct. The second set of ice core data corroborated that the past climate changes were very, very, rapid.
The question is now not did the Rapid Climatic Change Events (RCCEs) “Rickies” occur, but rather what is causing them? What is the forcing function(s) that could possibly cause such a rapid and extreme change in the planet’s climate?
The fact that the small, medium, and large climate change events have the same periodicity and the fact that there are cosmogenic isotope changes at the rapid climate change events supports the assertion the same forcing function is causing all events. It is the sun.
An analogue of what to expect next is the 8200 years BP (before present) abrupt cooling event.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/8.2_kiloyear_event#/media/File:Greenland_Gisp2_Temperature.svg
P.S.
The 8200 BP event was not caused by a stoppage or a slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current. The assertion that a stoppage or slowdown of the North Atlantic drift current could cause a significant drop in winter temperatures in Europe and on the Greenland Ice sheet is an urban myth.
http://sheridan.geog.kent.edu/geog41066/7-Overpeck.pdf
According to the marine records, the Eemian interglacial (William: Last Eemain is the name of the last interglacial period) ended with a rapid cooling event about 110,000 years ago (e.g., Imbrie et al., 1984; Martinson et al., 1987), which also shows up in ice cores and pollen records from across Eurasia. From a relatively high resolution core in the North Atlantic. Adkins et al. (1997) suggested that the final cooling event took less than 400 years, and it might have been much more rapid.
The event at 8200 BP is the most striking sudden cooling event during the Holocene, giving widespread cool, dry conditions lasting perhaps 200 years before a rapid return to climates warmer and generally moister than the present. This event is clearly detectable in the Greenland ice cores, where the cooling seems to have been about half-way as severe as the Younger Dryas-to-Holocene difference (Alley et al., 1997; Mayewski et al., 1997). No detailed assessment of the speed of change involved seems to have been made within the literature (though it should be possible to make such assessments from the ice core record), but the short duration of these events at least suggests changes that took only a few decades or less to occur.
The Younger Dryas cold event at about 12,900-11,500 years ago seems to have had the general features of a Heinrich Event, and may in fact be regarded as the most recent of these (Severinghaus et al. 1998). The sudden onset and ending of the Younger Dryas has been studied in particular detail in the ice core and sediment records on land and in the sea (e.g., Bjoerck et al., 1996), and it might be representative of other Heinrich events.
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/palynology/geos462/8200yrevent.html
I read the following words from the above text with interest:
“Warm water, like warm air, rises—or, rather, stays at the surface when nothing else is disturbing it. This is why, in a lake, the upper layer is warmer than the bottom layer.”
I was interested because, when I was a lad swimming in the local, rather muddy river, the top six inches or so were warm and below that the water was very cold. I always thought that weas because the sun’s rays could not penetrate the depth; but now I know better.
Particulate matter in muddy water scatters solar insolation, thus reducing the penetration depth.
What about un-muddy water? Jackson Lake and Estes Park lake were crystal clear when 1) went swimming 2) capsized the sail boat.
The “discovery” that “heat” gets transferred from the Pacific through to the Indian Ocean is hardly groundbreaking news. Southern Western Australia would be a desert without the warm south-flowing Leeuwin Current driven by conditions in the Pacific.
Warmer water, greater evaporation, better rain in SW Australia. Compare with equivalent areas…..Atacama and Namib deserts that have cold currents.
eg https://blogs.csiro.au/ecos/the-good-news-el-nino-story-for-western-australias-oceans/