Given Lew and Oreskes latest admonition to scientists who use the word “pause” or “hiatus” it looks like they’ll be applying the “D” word to the entire AGU community of scientists any minute now. From the AGU website, EOS:
Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus
Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is helping to take up the world’s missing surface heat, the heat doesn’t linger; oceanographers now find that heat has moved over to the Indian Ocean.
Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee
By Christina Reed 21 May 2015
At the end of the 20th century, climate scientists noticed what they thought at first was an anomaly: a slowdown in the pace of global warming in the lower atmosphere. Today, it is a recognized trend that has lasted more than 15 years. Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.
In the latest report out of Nature Geoscience this week, University of Miami physical oceanographer Sang-Ki Lee and colleagues may have found some of this missing heat: The Pacific Ocean is keeping its cool by sending heat over to the Indian Ocean. This heat redistribution, the researchers say, could play a role in regulating the rate of global warming.
Oceans: A Complex Buffer
Rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.Why the global warming hiatus has happened and how long it will last is a mystery. However, scientists do know that the ocean has recently helped to buffer what was otherwise an accelerated surface warming, one that has not yet stopped. Warming in the upper atmosphere continues to show that the planet is undergoing a radiation imbalance.
However, rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.
“When I noticed from the hydrographic data that the Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing since 2003 or so, I was very surprised and puzzled,” Lee told Eos. “And when I found a large heat increase in the Indian Ocean, I was almost convinced that there was something wrong with the hydrographic data.”
How Does Heat Escape to the Indian Ocean?
Lee ran a computer model simulation and found that he could explain the difference if a massive amount of heat from the Pacific flowed through Indonesia’s archipelago into the Indian Ocean. However, how best to move the heat?
Warm water, like warm air, rises—or, rather, stays at the surface when nothing else is disturbing it. This is why, in a lake, the upper layer is warmer than the bottom layer.
To get warm surface water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean requires wind—and not just any wind. The trade winds need to be strong enough to push water from the eastern Pacific all the way across the ocean basin to the west, where it piles up and creates a region of above-average sea surface height.
Warm surface water can then flow like a river down around the Indonesian archipelago to the Indian Ocean. A difference in height of less than a dozen centimeters is enough to get the heat moving.
…
Full story here: https://eos.org/articles/tracking-the-missing-heat-from-the-global-warming-hiatus
Citation: Reed, C. (2015), Tracking the missing heat from the global warming hiatus, Eos, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO029947. Published on 21 May 2015.
Has anyone looked at this site and its breakdown of contributing factors to GW?
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
It looks pretty good but from 2007. Is this still good info? Great if it was because it’s so simple and easy for an amateur sceptic.
It says that humans are responsible for only 0.28% of AGW if water vapor is taken into account. Is this info still scientifically accurate?
Humans are responsible for 100% of AGW —- by Definition!
In my climate pages I have links to 3 pages in the West Virginia Plant Fossils Website:
Global Warming: Introduction, A closer look at the numbers and A Chilling Perspective.
I found nothing obviously wrong and a lot of good common sense and data.
I suspect Lew and Oreskes are actually after a few million dollars, cash, from the AGU’s money laundering scheme — The Climate Scientists Legal Defense Fund — funded by membership fees and which gives hefty cash payouts to James E. Hansen and Michael E. Mann.
I.e. if the AGU does not fork over a few million in cash, Lew and Oreskes will petition to District Court #1 of the Federal Circuit about the REAL goings on at the AGU’s “Climate Scientists Legal Defense Fund”.
Nothing better than good old fashion blackmail at the feet of Her Majesty Christine McEntee.
Har har.
I think they’ve just discovered ENSO. Tisdale told us the trades blow the warm water westward where it piles up. I don’t believe the researcher didn’t read Bob’s stuff and then made his “discovery”. Don’t forget that these guys didn’t figure ENSO into climate until the pause sent them scurrying finding such things as El Nino, El Nina, PDO, AMO, sunspots, aerosols (oops did I spell that correctly) and they actually didn’t discover the pause until about 2009 when they read it in the Daily Mail, nor did governments learn of it until Monckton announced it at the Doha IPCC show.
I hope these guys know, too, that enthalpy changes don’t always signify temperature changes. If suddenly all the world’s winds and currents are picking up as has been reported on, where do they think the air and water get their push from? This is a cooling activity – mostly moving heat to toward the poles were it can radiate to space – they are closing in on the thermostat hypothesis! It stands to reason that, if the maximum amount the oceans’ water can be heated is to 31C and this happens only in the band around the equator, then there is a rock hard limit to temperatures in the system with a steady sun.
My feeling also. ENSO rediscovered by consensus science.
Researchers have been studying these currents for many years. If you go back more than a decade or so, the problem was lack of data.
http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/div/ocp/projects/SE_Asian_Archipelago/
i have argued with various warmist acquaintances that any indication of “warming” at the poles is an increase in heat being lost to the atmosphere , particularly in winter time .
dbstealey wrote May 22, 2015 at 9:46 am
“But… but… climate change is real!”
The last four words led to a video. I think that the video is a spoof to mock true believers. I certainly hope so, for the poor guy seems to be deluded. We had a family expression about somebody being as happy as if they were in their right mind, and he certainly makes you wonder!
Ian M
Definitely not a spoof, just a guy who wants to be a motivational speaker but has absolutely no talent for it. He might compensate for it with enough practice. Which he does not have yet.
Citizens: DANGER
Authorities are asking citizens everywhere to be on the lookout for Missing Heat. Heat has escaped sometime in the past 18 years and despite a massive search it has continued to evade officials around the world. If you see Missing Heat, please do not approach. It is extremely dangerous causing hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, disease, famine, war, death and much, much more. Immediately call 911 and specially trained climatologists will be dispatched to safely capture Missing Heat.
Ghost busters maybe?
Wanted: Missing Heat.
Wanted for violating the laws of Conservation of Energy.
In the real world, there can be no “missing heat.”
Can something missing if it has never existed?
From the same people who told us the sun wasn’t important in the first IPCC report, to admitting the sun might be somewhat important in the second, to agreeing that, yes, it is important, but not really, really important in the third, to telling us to shut up about the sun already in the fourth…
IPCC AR5 acknowledges the pause/hiatus.
WG1AR5_Chapter09_FINAL
Box 9.2 | Climate Models and the Hiatus in Global Mean Surface Warming of the Past 15 Years
“The observed global mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.20, Table 2.7; Figure 9.8; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012 (Section 2.4.3, Table 2.7; Box 9.2 Figure 1a, c). For example, in HadCRUT4 the trend is 0.04ºC per decade over 1998–2012, compared to 0.11ºC per decade over 1951–2012. The reduction in observed GMST trend is most marked in Northern Hemisphere winter (Section 2.4.3; Cohen et al., 2012). Even with this “hiatus” in GMST trend, the decade of the 2000s has been the warmest in the instrumental record of GMST (Section 2.4.3, Figure 2.19). Nevertheless, the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of (1) what has caused it and (2) whether climate models are able to reproduce it.”
And two very good questions.
(1) Increased water vapor, snow albedo, -20 W/m^2 cloud negative feedback..
(2) Obviously no, no they haven’t and can’t.
But the GMST trend over 1951-2012 includes the cooling from 1951 to 1975, and the plateau from 2001 to 2012. So if “the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012” what is the comparable ratio to the warming trend rate over the major period of warming from 1979 to 1999?
The UKMO’s Betts has found a way to measure accurately all the energy in the global system. We should ask him where the energy has gone and from that where he thinks, sorry, knows the heat is hiding.
Betts also does easy to understand decadal temperature forecasts
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/8/m/plumes_2012-800px.jpeg
This one has been explicitly approved by the MettOffice’s day nursery attendees.
Gotcha !
You think it is a joke, no.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/news/decadal-forecasting
Good one Vukcevic. It was a gotcha moment.
AMO cycle is in a phase negative (for 30 years). It will bring the end of the drought in the southern United States.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-amo/from:2010/trend/plot/esrl-amo/from:2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_multidecadal_oscillation
They use it for explaining “pause”.
I like this one better
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/image/a/p/hadcm3_zoom-800px.jpeg
Come out, come out where ever you are HEAT. I can feel you!!!
“Lewandowsky and Oreskes” anagrams to:
A Dorky Swede knows a Lens.
Ek! Wales reasoned sky down
O eke days, less wonder – a wonk
Kooky sand, we wander less
Sway land need, skew rooks
Rank loss. Way done? Skewed.
A workless Dane, Ed, saw no sky.
Seeks lewd and raw on sky.
I’ll stick with what Lysenko Spawned.
Wow. Good job!
Pacific cooling since 2003…
Climate science discovers the PDO!
Of course a fisheries biologist already found it in the 1990s.
The trend of average global temperature data before it was ‘adjusted’ has been flat since before 2001. The data are graphed at http://endofgw.blogspot.com.
Proof that CO2 has no significant effect on climate and identification of the two factors that do cause climate change (95% correlation since before 1900) are at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com
Upjusted
But..but, they predicted not so long ago that Global-Warming was going to and was already SLOWING down the pacific trade winds!
So Global-Warming CAUSES the Pacific trade winds to slow down.
Which… accelerates the Pacific trade winds, which pause global warming?
Totally makes sense.
They are pogroms!
A pogrom have the active support or the establishments blind eye turned toards them when they harass opposition and minorities.A pogrom is an ideologic driven totalitarian who will kill if needed the oppossiton or minority hes attacking. Desmoblog Oreskes Lewandovski Holdren Al Gore … pogroms ! The worst case is the communist and nazi jew case but it the same kind of people just a different ideology application attacking a new monority!
.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pogrom
“The worst case is the communist and nazi jew case”
The bolsheviki were all Jewish; only exception the figurehead, Lenin resp. Stalin (Lenin had one Jewish grandfather), and exterminated millions of Russian Christians. The Nazis exterminated Jews. So I don’t quite get the sentence. Do you claim that communists made pogroms against Jews?
Pogrom is a role and funktion an actor to oppress deiscriminate and scare. When they start to kill people its the final tolitrian activist.
The Bolsheviks weren’t all Jews, although there were disproportionatly large number of Jews in communist party, just like there are disproportional number of Jews among scientists, inventors, musicians and Nobel Prize winners.
Neither Lenin nor Stalin were Jewish or figureheads and communists in the beginning were exterminating everyone equally, including religion Jews or Jews in opposition parties. They switched to regular antisemitism in about 40 years. Most of Jews in leading positions were exterminated within 30 years after revolution.
I really don’t understand what is the point of your posting, it’s even more incoherent than original you replying to.
Incidentally, Pogroms is Russian word to describe killing of Jews by Russian crowds that was instigated and sponsored by Russian government, which was extremely antisemitism and in addition to sponsoring mass killings also prevented Jews from obtaining education, living within thousands of kilometers from large cities or working at most trades.
Of course, the alarmists can show this is the case because there are precedents: It’s all happened before, under similar circumstances. No? (Face-palm) I get it! There were no computers back in the day, so how could it ever have happened before?
With 660,000,000 cubic kilometres of Pacific Ocean trying to heat 274,000,000 cubic kilometres of Indian Ocean, Lombok Straight must have been politely boiling.
I thought the heat was now hiding in the Arctic. It sure gets around doesn’t it? Deep Pacific. Arctic. Now Indian Ocean.
Well, now NASA is saying global warming ISN’T affecting the polar ice caps, so I guess the search for thd missing heat must carry on.
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/pj-gladnick/2015/05/20/oops-updated-nasa-data-reveals-no-global-warming-polar-ice-retreat
Please be aware why ice is melting in west Antarctica.
Will the new volcano erupt?
“Definitely,” Lough said. “In fact, because the radar shows a mountain beneath the ice, I think it has erupted in the past, before the rumblings we recorded.”
Will the eruptions punch through a kilometer or more of ice above it?
The scientists calculated that an enormous eruption, one that released 1,000 times more energy than the typical eruption, would be necessary to breach the ice above the volcano.
On the other hand, a subglacial eruption and the accompanying heat flow will melt a lot of ice. “The volcano will create millions of gallons of water beneath the ice — many lakes full,” Wiens said.
This water will rush beneath the ice toward the sea and feed into the hydrological catchment of the MacAyeal Ice Stream, one of several major ice streams draining ice from Marie Byrd Land into the Ross Ice Shelf.
By lubricating the bedrock, it will speed the flow of the overlying ice, perhaps increasing the rate of ice-mass loss in West Antarctica.
“We weren’t expecting to find anything like this,” Wiens said.
https://news.wustl.edu/news/Pages/25611.aspx
Don’t forget, with the 11-dimension interpretation of Einstein, there are another 7 dimensions for it to hide in! Better get some funding to research that soon.
Energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transported ;-(
What’s the take-home message here? Ocean takes up more heat? Oceans spreading heat around? Ocean-Atmosphere interaction? Why would Lew and Oreske have an issue? Lot’s of questions here, sorry. I simply do not seem to get the rationale behind this post.
Instead of surface warming, there has been relatively more warming of the oceans. Article posted above says so, I think, and that it spreads.
Some talk about hiatus (surface temperatures) while the oceans warm, others say there is no hiatus since the globe warms (surface, oceans, and the rest considered at once).
??
“Why would Lew and Oreske have an issue?”
Because they deny that the pause exists anywhere but in skeptics’ imaginations.
“Why would Lew and Oreske have an issue?”
‘Because they deny that the pause exists anywhere but in skeptics’ imaginations.’
Heh? Evidence please. Nobody is denying relatively slow surface warming (land ice loss is continuing as is ocean warming).
I’m working on a post about Lee et al.(2015). I hope to post it this weekend.
Cheers.
The voice of scientific reason.
I had assumed that warmth in the South China Sea could impede transfer of heat to the Indian Ocean. That would have sent more of the Western Pacific heat north via the Kuroshio Current. This paper seems to suggest that was not the case?
Pacific Ocean cooled…. and Indian ocean warmed….. OK… Did anyone mention the Pacific Ocean is twice the size of the Indian Ocean?
There is a special climate science law called ‘reverse entropy’. They just neglected to tell us that the heat from the Pacific concentrates at the bottleneck around Indonesia. In fact the seas nearly boil there. Then it dissipates into the Indian Ocean. They don’t make this information public because they don’t want to frighten the populace.
I used to do an exercise with my classes in which I would provide them with some statistic that seemed counter-intuitive and ask them to explain it. For instance, in one chart I showed that women were far more likely get AIDS than men were and they were also more likely to suffer severe accidents at the workplace than men. Their explanations were consistently clever and always very politically correct. Common explanations for these two statistics were that women were more likely to get AIDS because men tended to have sex with more than one woman, therefore a man with AIDS would spread it among more women, and women had more accidents at the workplace because they were forced to wear innappropriate clothing, especially shoes. After allowing about 15 minutes to half an hour for the students to explain these findings I would then reveal that I had reversed the statistics – the point being that when you start with a conclusion — any conclusion, no matter how silly — you can always back-engineer a reason.
(And yes, I did often lie to my classes. My point for the course was to trust no one, but always check out the facts for themselves.)
I find the concept of missing heat strange . Heat is either there or not there. It’s like saying some warmists have missing intelligence. It’s either there or not there. It’s as if the world has actually warmed and somehow rather than show up in temperature data it has been somehow transferred somewhere else. How about this theory. It never existed. You are more likely to find the Loch Ness monster than the missing heat.
Aye laddy. You’re talking about Nessie. I think you might be on to something. Perhaps the heat has chased ole Nessie deep into the freezing recesses of an ancient loch. There’s funding in this one!
Hadn’t you heard?
Despite having hundreds of sonar contacts over the years, the trail has since gone cold and Rines believes that Nessie may be dead, a victim of global warming.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/veteran-loch-ness-monster-hunter-968694
The missing heat is a needle in the oceans/clouds/ice sheets. Typically rather hard to locate.
David S, do you think the warmists ever heard of the heat equation and delta T?
Since I was an Army officer in a previous life I prefer to think of the current pause/halt/plateau as a harried Heat, being on the run from the pesky climastrologists, laagering up in a defense position with all defenses pointing outwards. When the situation returns to a different state it will unlaager and resume its destructive reign. Of course no one knows if Heat will be strengthened or weakened from its time spent in laager.
David S says:
I find the concept of missing heat strange.
Yes! That has to be rank speculation. If the ‘missing heat’ wasn’t missing, it would be found, and then they would all jump up and down pointing to it. Since they can’t find the missing heat, they pretend to know it’s there. But they don’t know that, do they?
[BTW, you have a really excellent first name & last intitial! ☺]
How does Global Warming caused by a well dispersed heat absorbing atmospheric gas warm up only one specific area of the planet? Especially as I thought all the heat was going to the poles?
First Global Warming transmogrifies into Climate Change, then it becomes more selective. Elementary, my dear Skinner.