Given Lew and Oreskes latest admonition to scientists who use the word “pause” or “hiatus” it looks like they’ll be applying the “D” word to the entire AGU community of scientists any minute now. From the AGU website, EOS:
Tracking the Missing Heat from the Global Warming Hiatus
Despite indications that the Pacific Ocean is helping to take up the world’s missing surface heat, the heat doesn’t linger; oceanographers now find that heat has moved over to the Indian Ocean.
Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee
By Christina Reed 21 May 2015
At the end of the 20th century, climate scientists noticed what they thought at first was an anomaly: a slowdown in the pace of global warming in the lower atmosphere. Today, it is a recognized trend that has lasted more than 15 years. Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.
In the latest report out of Nature Geoscience this week, University of Miami physical oceanographer Sang-Ki Lee and colleagues may have found some of this missing heat: The Pacific Ocean is keeping its cool by sending heat over to the Indian Ocean. This heat redistribution, the researchers say, could play a role in regulating the rate of global warming.
Oceans: A Complex Buffer
Rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.Why the global warming hiatus has happened and how long it will last is a mystery. However, scientists do know that the ocean has recently helped to buffer what was otherwise an accelerated surface warming, one that has not yet stopped. Warming in the upper atmosphere continues to show that the planet is undergoing a radiation imbalance.
However, rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled over the last decade.
“When I noticed from the hydrographic data that the Pacific Ocean heat content has been decreasing since 2003 or so, I was very surprised and puzzled,” Lee told Eos. “And when I found a large heat increase in the Indian Ocean, I was almost convinced that there was something wrong with the hydrographic data.”
How Does Heat Escape to the Indian Ocean?
Lee ran a computer model simulation and found that he could explain the difference if a massive amount of heat from the Pacific flowed through Indonesia’s archipelago into the Indian Ocean. However, how best to move the heat?
Warm water, like warm air, rises—or, rather, stays at the surface when nothing else is disturbing it. This is why, in a lake, the upper layer is warmer than the bottom layer.
To get warm surface water from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean requires wind—and not just any wind. The trade winds need to be strong enough to push water from the eastern Pacific all the way across the ocean basin to the west, where it piles up and creates a region of above-average sea surface height.
Warm surface water can then flow like a river down around the Indonesian archipelago to the Indian Ocean. A difference in height of less than a dozen centimeters is enough to get the heat moving.
…
Full story here: https://eos.org/articles/tracking-the-missing-heat-from-the-global-warming-hiatus
Citation: Reed, C. (2015), Tracking the missing heat from the global warming hiatus, Eos, 96, doi:10.1029/2015EO029947. Published on 21 May 2015.
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Do the drifting Argo Buoys confirm this flow? I can’t remember where the Argo tracking page is.
One would expect some of the buoys to drift along with the warm water.
If so, what bias does this create in the ARGO data?
I frequently point out that due to the free floating nature of the ARGO buoys, that get swept along with curreents that are themselves density/temperature dependant, may well lead to bias, and yet no evaluation of the ARGO data has been undertaken to establish whether there is such bias, nor to estimate the scale of any such inhernet bias in the temperature data set.
R.V. says…”I frequently point out that due to the free floating nature of the ARGO buoys, that get swept along with currents that are themselves density/temperature dependent, may well lead to bias, and yet no evaluation of the ARGO data has been undertaken to establish whether there is such bias, nor to estimate the scale of any such inherent bias in the temperature data set.”
==================================================
Yes!. I usually hear crickets when this is brought up. Imagine if land based stations simply drifted hundreds of miles. (Of course due to changing data bases and homogenization, in affect they do.)
Does this help?
http://www.argo.ucsd.edu/statusbig.gif
It tells current location, not changes.
Not really each of those dots would have be hundreds of miles in circumference if this was to scale.
Actually no. There is virtually no Argo coverage in the Indonesian archipelago, the water is mostly too shallow for the Argo byoys.
It was just a few years ago that many main stream scientists were still denying the pause, or ta least refusing to talk about it. Of course Trenberth has been searching for the missing heat for a decade or more now, but that must have been some other kind of missing heat as far as the pause deniers were concerned.
Funny how suddenly things sometimes turn around. The Atlantic, a liberal publication, printed an article on the missing heat, and suddenly the pause was real, except for Lewandowsky and Orestes of course. It’s really pretty entertaining to watch the zealots hopelessly marginalizing themselves by refusing to accept reality.
(aka pokerguy)
“and suddenly the pause was real”
Not only real, but according to the data from the NOAA itself, the PAUSE is going to turn into a slow decline!
http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/MTC.htm
It appears they a bit reluctant to look at their own data files.
Strong secondary galactic radiation changes the chemistry of the atmosphere (for example, increasing the production of NO and 14CO2) to the same surface of the Earth. GCR is modulated by the magnetic field of the Earth, both as regards force and the area of action. This will cause interference polar vortex, especially in winter.
EUV changes cause changes in the temperature and density of the thermosphere. Waves are created in the atmosphere, which affects the pressure in the stratosphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_WAVE1_MEAN_ALL_NH_2014.gif
http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/webform/query.cgi?startday=01&startmonth=09&startyear=2014&starttime=00%3A00&endday=23&endmonth=05&endyear=2015&endtime=23%3A30&resolution=Automatic+choice&picture=on
The magnetic field most strongly increases in the Indian Ocean. Is it a coincidence?
http://www.esa.int/var/esa/storage/images/esa_multimedia/images/2014/06/magnetic_field_changes/14582172-1-eng-GB/Magnetic_field_changes_large.jpg
http://www.esa.int/Our_Activities/Observing_the_Earth/Swarm/Swarm_reveals_Earth_s_changing_magnetism
The Atlantic also had something on the American Gestapo and AMTRAK.
*snicker*
It’s Oreskes .NOT. Orestes. However, Mourning does become Lewandowsky.
;>)
This is confirmation bias on steroids.
Meaning? Please explain.
All this is aggravating my hiatus hernia.
You need to re-model that Tim to remove the aggravation.
“The Hardy Boys and the Case of the Missing Heat”
So, we built a model to show how the dastardly heat escaped us, yet again, and we proved it because the model showed it!!!
Good thing real detectivework doesn’t work tlike this…
But… but… climate change is real!
Yes dbstealey, and big oil agrees:
http://www.chextv.com/syn/98/65105/oil-sands-boss-says-climate-change-is-happening
Nice – I’d love to see the cover to that HB installment
“….Will the letter “D”
Be used to signify
That you’ve dangerous free opinions,
That you still won’t comply?
A “D” daubed on your house,
A “D” badge on your coat,
No employment available,
Not allowed to vote….”
Read more: http://wp.me/p3KQlH-Mz (From Environmental Nazis)
I love it!
I’m sure your poetry will be on the top of the burning pile…
Would you deny it in a boat?
Would you deny it with a goat?
Will a goat float.
You realize you guys are creating a Frankenstein.
I would deny it with a GOAT
How many boats would the Stoat goat float if the Stoat goat could float boats?
“Will a goat float.”
Only with lots of ice cream.
rhymeafterrhyme,
I always enjoy your poems 🙂
Incidentally, you might appreciate this … I took an excellent and highly enjoyable poetry class as an undergrad (to have a bit of contrast to all the math and physics stuff), but the part about the various meters was not opaque, but … ummm … not entirely transparent — or maybe put another way, not entirely ‘natural.’
Subsequently I took drumming lessons for a number of years from Pete Magadini, who dominates the published books on drumming meters and poly-rhythms. I had a blast, practiced long and hard, and now I have a huge rhythmic vocabulary thoroughly integrated into my viscera.
Well I got a pleasant shock a number of years back when I revisited poetry meter and discovered that now it is all crystal clear! So much so that it would be trivial for me to transcribe poetry meter to drumming notation. (And yes, to many people’s surprise, drumming does have written music; after all, the X axis of the great staff is time!)
Anyway, keep up the good work. You add to the color of this already colorful site.
If “D” was for “Democrat” – I might go along with that…
http://joannenova.com.au/2011/12/the-travesty-of-the-missing-heat-deep-ocean-or-outer-space/
The reality.
“Perplexed, oceanographers are on a hunt to find where this missing heat has gone.”
Space. The final frontier!
To quote Gene Roddenberry about Mr. Spock – he should be alien with three ears. A left ear, a right ear and a final front ear. It all got a bit garbled by the time it made it through post production.
Pointman
OLR does in fact increase when temperature increases. There is no need to look for hidey-holes.
For those like me who don’t have every acronym memorized, AGU stands for “American Geophysical Union” and EOS appears to be the name of the Greek goddess of the dawn, although their web page is headlined as “Earth & Space Science News.”
Thank you VERY much for bringing this up. It is a very common practice to spell out an acronym the first time it is used in an article (yes, in each and every article), like this: “American Geophysical Union (AGU)”. Then you can use the acronym freely throughout the rest of the article.
Slacking in this area is more annoying to me than misspelling and misusage.
I agree! Acronyms are frustrating enough without having them go undefined.
ROTFLMAO, AFAIK 🙂
WTFDIK?
AARF (Acronyms are really frustrating)
Yes, I spend way too much time looking up acronyms posted by people who think it makes them look smart.
Christopher Paino
Out of curiosity is — AGU (American Geophysical Union) acceptable for first usage in an article? For some reason I generally do it that way. Never thought about it before. Is this in the style handbook?
Eugene WR Gallun
I believe the more accepted form is: “The American Geophysical Union (AGU) … ” with subsequent references being “AGU.” I’ve always taken exception to this, feeling that it should be the other way around, as in your example. My reasoning is that things in parentheses are parenthetical, and since you’re going to be using the initials from that point on, it’s the full name that should be put in the brackets.
But nobody consulted me when they made up the style books.
OK, but I did have to look up BOHICA…..:>)))
If a lawyer was drafting the article they would have stated something along these lines:
American Geophysical Union (hereinafter reffered to as “AGU”).
I guess that sufficiently defines the term, and what the acronym represents/stands for and how it is being used in the remainder of the text/document.
If people are concerned about accuracy, they would not refer to “AGU” as an acronym, as “acronym” only refers to initials that form a pronounceable word. NASA is an acronym because it is pronounced “nahsa”. For “AGU” to be an acronym, it would need to be pronounced “ahgoo”.
SR
Our engineering report consultant used to tell us that use of acronyms was lazy writing. Plus, while we knew what all the acronyms meant as we used them every day, many of our clients weren’t as familiar with the acronyms. Surveys told us they got frustrated at having to go back to find the first occurrence in order to find the definition. Solution: We wrote our draft reports using acronyms, then did a search and replace to put all the spelled out in full versions into the reports.
For technical clients that were used to the acronyms, we ASKED before we finalized the report. If the report was to be used internally, then they were fine with the acronyms. If it was going on to others who weren’t used to the acronyms then we replaced them with the full version depending on what the client wanted.
The client knows best … IMHO 😉
Wayne,
WTF?? LOL!
I have 3 olive-drab Army green t-shirts that say: SNAFU, FUBAR, and BOHICA. I wear ’em all.
Handy reference.
I was once asked by my manager to read some bit of bumf produced by my employer (I think it had something to do with employee performance reviews) I dully wadded though it all and when at the end it asked me what I thought of it all I put the comment. Too many unexplained three and four letter acronyms, my boss started to go through some of them but gave up when I asked what they meant and what they did.
I take the view “Do I do and know my job do I get payed”…..Good enough drop the jargon but I suppose it keeps the office wallahs out of mischief.
As for for this “study” I think they may need to get out a bit more.
It’s looking to be a nice day here so I may be out in the garden later.
James Bull
It’s typical to include a list of acronyms and abbreviations following/as part of the table of contents (TOC) 🙂
If one doesn’t know what “AGU” stands for, then perhaps one needs further education. Do you know what “APS” or AAAS” stands for? I certainly hope so.
Seriously, one should know what Anthony Watts is talking about. If you don’t, get educated—these are major scientific organizations.
Henry,
WUWT <—[there’s another one!] has a good glossary page [in the References tab up top].
Snob
I have a very extensive education. I did not, however, take any classes on the topic of decoding acronyms… past, present or future ones.
As Steve Martin said: Well, Excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuse MEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
Henry – APS stands for Alimentation Par Sol, the French invented arrangment for power supply to trams, streetcars and light rail vehicles (three names for the one vehicle) using a switched third rail between the running rails. Very expensive but it works.
If you were to read a headline, “Climate gets heated in APS debate,” in the local paper here, the story could well be about the troubled Atlanta Public School system.
Also, I’ve read too many articles in which the author wrote Mw when the proper unit was mw (and if you hold that the proper unit should have been obvious, then why bother showing it at all?). It’s easy to make a HUGE mistake. Spell it out, spell it out, spell it out.
As usual, Henry Mencken nailed it:
“The professor must be an obscurantist or he is nothing; he has a special and unmatchable talent for dullness, his central aim is not to expose the truth clearly, but to exhibit his profundity, his esotericity – in brief to stagger sophomores and other professors.”
Here is Feynman:
“You never really know a subject unless you can prepare a freshman lecture on it.”
Here is Einstein:
“You do not really understand something unless you can explain it to your grandmother.”
And here in the UK the IPCC stands for the “Independent Police Complaints Comission”. This could lead to the rather bizarre headline:
“Ex Head of IPCC now appointed to lead the IPCC”
(If a rail engineer/romance novelist can head-up the IPCC, why not a copper;))
They seek them here, they seek them there, they seek them everywhere, those damned elusive calories.
THE WHO LYRICS
“The Seeker”
I looked under chairs
I looked under tables
I’m tryin to find the key
To fifty million fables
They call me the seeker
I been searchin low and high
I wont get to get what I’m after
Till the day I die
I asked bobby dylan
I asked the beatles
I asked timothy leary
But he couldn’t help me either
They call me the seeker
I been searchin low and high
I wont get to get what I’m after
Till the day I die
People tend to hate me
Cuz I never smile
As I ransack their homes
They wanna shake my hand
Focusing on nowhere
Investigating miles
I’m a seeker I’m a really desperate man
I wont get to get what I’m after
Till the day I die
I learned to raise my voice in anger
Yeah but look at my face ain’t this a smile
I’m happy when life’s good and when its bad I cry
I got values but I don’t know how or why
I’m lookin for me
You’re lookin for you
Were lookin at each other and we don’t know what to do
They call me the seeker
I been searchin low and high
I wont get to get what I’m after
Till the day I die
Heh.
Loved that movie! (The Scarlet Pimpernel, for the uninitiated)
First thing I thought of when I read the opening paragraphs.
The incredible power of the CO2 molecule is once more exposed! First we found out that, after a century of increasing atmospheric CO2 and temperature, one final CO2 molecule triggered the entire Atlantic Ocean to begin “hiding” heat deep down at the exact same rate that increasing CO2 was generating it in the atmosphere. Clever molecule!
Now we find that that same molecule cranked up the Pacific trade winds just enough to transfer the requisite heat from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Not just clever, but brilliant!
Is there a new concomitant theory on how it can have positive water vapor feedback in the atmosphere when it’s in the ocean … ? Calling brilliant scientists Travesty Trenberth and Lew and Naomi, hello, hello, come in.
Fact check: Oreskes isn’t technically a scientist. She styles herself a “Historian of Science,” or “Science Historian,” in different contexts.
Science hysterical fits better.
According to IPCC AR5 the additional radiative forcing due to the increased atmospheric CO2 levels between 1750 and 2011 (261 years!) is about 2 W/m^2. IPCC’s four GCMs, RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 W/m^2 are based on corresponding elevated ppm of CO2. ToA incoming power is 340 +/- 2? 5? W/m^2. 168 W/m^2 +/- 2? 5? reaches the surface.
How does anybody quantify the RF of GHGs in the huge amounts of power flowing in the atmosphere? Or determine how such a relatively trivial amount of energy flow significantly impacts the climate. IPCC acknowledges that the negative forcing of clouds is on the order of -20 W/m^2!! Ten times that of CO2.
Nickreality
Those numbers don’t add up. If only 168 W/m^2 reaches the ground, averaged over 24 hours, then 8 hours would be thrice that. Insolation on a solar panel is about a kW/m^2 or nearly double, and PV panels don’t work on IR or backscatter.
Is the figure 168 the average for pole to pole then? At first and second blush it seems low.
If the theory is that the Indonesian archipelago has such significance regarding heat flow, the scientific approach would be to try and prove it by monitoring the area with some fixed buoys and tide gaufes, and gathering some actual data.
But the preferred method of climate scientists seems to be the creation of a model and hey presto – theory proved.
I emailed Lewy to ask if he had told the Met Office that they were wrong about the pause. Oddly, he hasn’t replied
What did Hewy and Dewy say?
“Quack”?
Most apropos.
You say the global warming pause that has occurred is a mystery… it is not a mystery. the sun now bereft of sunspots for the first time for a hundred years and with a rapidly declining solar irradiance gives the answer. As Lockwood, Anthenur(India) and Abdussamatov(St Petersberg) have all said we are facing a new ice age. The De Vries 200 year cycle and the solar decline is proof. Humans are irrelevant.
God is actually playing a shell game with the Warmists and they keep picking the wrong shell. Doh!
Of course, the trick is that there’s no “missing heat” under ANY of the shells!
That horrifying moment when you realize, not only does God play dice with the Universe, but they’re loaded. >¿<
I believe those still pushing the global warming meme are resorting to Doublespeak to keep their agenda alive. “Pause” is a convenient term to suggest their models are correct and the extremes included in those results are still anticipated. “Pause” is an inversion of meaning disguising the truth (= Doublespeak). The truth is: they got it wrong.
Yeah. It really needs to be called the Halt. Until it resolves into more up, or the more likely cold plunge.
The 18 year long climate reversal.
The NY Times editors must still be in shock that they let this be written:
“There’s been a burst of worthy research aimed at figuring out what causes the stutter-steps in the process [global warming] — including the current hiatus/pause/plateau that has generated so much discussion.”
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/26/a-closer-look-at-turbulent-oceans-and-greenhouse-heating/
I did like the statement by Andrew Dessler:
“Rather, I expect that the hiatus will help us understand how ocean variability interacts with the long-term warming that humans are causing. In a few years, as we get to understand this more, skeptics will move on (just like they dropped arguments about the hockey stick and about the surface station record) to their next reason not to believe climate science.”
OK, so if warmists lose the argument they just shut up for a few years, and then claim that it was lost by the sceptics. Nice going. Possibly from “How to win even though you lost the argument.”
Where is the “missing heat” that’s flat-lined the GMT? Well, at some point every Religion needs a “How many Angels fit on the head of a pin?” question.
I’d like to see how many they could fit on the point.
That wascally heat. Someone should put a gps tracker on it.
An awful lot of time is wasted on this, when will these people get a proper job. Make something, feed somebody.
Oh, but in the emergent agendas of the CAGW advocates, “make something” only applies to developing countries and “feed somebody” doesn’t even appear on any warmist radar. Climate Fear proponents might make some half- hearted attempt to refute those points, but the evidence against them is overwhelming. By their own words, they have condemned themselves (repeatedly.)
“Lee told Eos. “And when I found a large heat increase in the Indian Ocean, I was almost convinced that there was something wrong with the hydrographic data.”
Then homogenize it!
Isn’t that how “climate science” is done? !
Why the global warming hiatus has happened and how long it will last is a mystery.
It is the sun.
predicting cold?
Warmunists are too smart to give absolute “Global Average Temperatures” and hide behind their anomalies and shifting baselines and historical revisionism of data (I know, Mosher, you say that all data needs to be revised, but why does it need to be revised AGAIN and AGAIN? Rethorical question, don’t answer. We know the reason for the repetitive revisions: the crave for funding.)
How would it look like if they gave absolute UNrevised temperature averages ; we’re probably already halfway into the cooling. Western Climate science is as reliable as the fraudulent unemployment statistics of the US or the GDP numbers, subject to constant history rewriting.
Predicting cold? No I think the idea is to hope it’s cold because global warming is so bad and everything.
Accordingly “Hope and Change” has been re-purposed:
http://www.dreamwitness.com/WUWT/Hope%20its%20cold%20small.jpg
Proof?
I’d be glad to see any Solar correlation which doesn’t disappear with a modicum of scrutiny.
Actually looking at World temperatures reported by Sky news and BBC every day, The temperatures at mid latitudes and subtropics seems remarkably low over the past 3 months or so has anybody noticed (ie Brisbane 24 degrees south) 22-23C nearly every day rarely 25C or so past 2 months anyway. I think the same has been observed in North America?
I went to Melbourne – I can assure you I noticed!
a couple of mm of ice on the waterbowls outside in Victorias sw this am
first for the year 🙂
and from the feels of outside now
more overnight
the trees on the east coast of scotland certainly noticed , starting to green nicely now though.
“Missing heat”
Like one of those Monty Python skits where the guy who doesn’t get joke keeps repeating it.
Everybody on the floor laughing and he just keeps saying “missing heat.”
Missing heat! It took a hiatus when they shut down the boilers in my condo and created winter in May.
Rather than showing any signs of storing heat, as is the case in the Atlantic Ocean, the Pacific Ocean has actually cooled………
it’s F’in magic
Ha ha. No, not like that, like this:
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CgRyqKNK6lc/U1f_Y43W30I/AAAAAAAAAm0/b9iHzbj7RQ0/s1600/David_threlfall_tommy_cooper_Not_Like_That_ITV.jpg