Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Elon Musk has announced the release of a new storage battery for home use. The new battery in principle dramatically reduces the cost of going “off grid” – powering your house entirely from solar or wind, and using the battery to provide backup power, to ensure continuous supply.
According to The Guardian;
The electric car company Tesla has announced its entry into the energy market, unveiling a suite of low-cost solar batteries for homes, businesses and utilities, “the missing piece”, it said, in the transition to a sustainable energy world.
The batteries, which will retail at $3,500 in the US, were launched on Thursday at a Tesla facility in California by the company’s ambitious founder, Elon Musk, who heralded the technology as “a fundamental transformation [in] how energy is delivered across the earth”.
Wall-mounted, with a sleek design, the lithium-ion batteries are designed to capture and store up to 10kWh of energy from wind or solar panel. The reserves can be drawn on when sunlight is low, during grid outages, or at peak demand times, when electricity costs are highest.
The smallest “Powerwall” is 1.3m by 68cm, small enough to be hung inside a garage on or an outside wall. Up to eight batteries can be “stacked” in a home, Musk said, to applause from investors and journalists at the much-anticipated event.
I’m excited by this announcement, not because I’m currently considering buying a Tesla battery, but because of the potential this announcement has, for exerting downward pressure on household electricity bills.
Assuming the battery has around 1000 charge / discharge cycles, paying $3500 every 3 years is approaching price parity with some of the more ridiculous electricity utility charges. When you factor in the satisfaction of tearing up your last electricity bill, there is a real chance a significant number of people will be tempted to make the leap.
How will utility companies respond? I suspect they will be forced to cap household bills, to put as much price distance as possible, between the Tesla option, and staying connected to their grid. It will no longer be possible to make electricity rates skyrocket, to treat household electricity consumers as an inelastic revenue source – because now householders have an alternative, to putting up with endless price rises.
The biggest losers from this potential game changer, in my opinion, might be large scale renewable energy providers. Since households now have an alternative to paying ever larger electricity bills, electricity utilities will be forced to keep costs down – they will no longer be able to ignore costs imposed by government mandated renewable schemes. Either the government will be forced to provide higher subsidies, or large scale renewable schemes will have to be scaled back, to keep grid electricity price competitive.
The hit of $3500 per battery is not going to make it for most of the people of the world, who must build their systems component-by-component as they can afford it.
Ah….hold of on that expected savings just yet.
Electricity is publicly regulated and as such……if the utility can’t meet costs (for whatever reasons in it’s non competitive business models), they will simply raise rates to compensate.
So, without true market forces at work. History has shown us that this will most likely have the opposite intended effect regarding the public’s saving of money…….
The only way this (or frankly any) attempt to reduce electrical costs would work is if the grid was open to any provider and the monopolies to customer bases eliminated. Without that, you could have FREELY generated power and would still cost more.
Mistake in tjhe headline:
Should read “Tesla announces very slightly lower costs for incredibly expensive batteries’.
the way I see it, the main role of this battery is to store solar produced energy so that it can be used at night.
Tesla’s business model is that early adopters pay a premium while funding the R&D that will lead to less expensive, more mainstream models down the road. this is how they are doing their car production…
What car production? Most major car makers around the world have solved how to build a car..
@Greg – there is actually a lot of innovative technology in a Tesla car. Their latest model will go from 0 to 60 mph in 3.2 seconds, as I recall. The entire dash board is an LED screen. If they figure out how to get twice the range at about 1/3 the cost sales will increase a lot. The number of charging stations is increasing every day and it only takes about 30 minutes. There are 10 charging stations conveniently located in Yuma, Az. and another 7 at Gila Bend, 116 miles up the road from Yuma on the Interstate.
I’m not that big a fan of electric, however. If everybody were to convert over a short period there would not be enough generating power in the U.S. to keep them all charged, I am told.
Um, the electric cars that Tesla makes. The Model S runs $70-100k and the upcoming Model X will be around $70k. The Model E will be out in a couple of years and the price should be in the $35k range. The early adopters that bought into the Model S are paying for the research that will allow the Model E to be half the cost…
“The entire dash board is an LED screen.”
I see you haven’t seen the inside of a Mercedes S class lately.
Marcos
May 3, 2015 at 8:53 am
“Um, the electric cars that Tesla makes.”
The FEW and EXPENSIVE cars that Tesla makes.
DirkH
May 3, 2015 at 8:57 am
“The FEW and EXPENSIVE cars that Tesla makes.”
I’ve seen more Tesla Model S’s driving around Houston than I have Chevy Volts, and I sell Chevys
-☺-
Three blind mice, three blind mice,
See how they charge, goin’ off grid,
The wind didn’t blow, ‘no sign of the sun,
The laundry’s all damp, their toast is not done,
And lIving in darkness is really not fun
For those three blind mice.
– sp –
The average house, 1 kwhr. Tesla 85, so to charge in one hour uses 85 houses load of electricity. .0 to 60 wow but runs out in 30 mins with no a/c. Range nowhere near 265, but Tesla knows the true figures from its service data but will not tell anyone.
Tesla’s batteries are simply a repackaging of his car batteries. They are worthless for home use. The number of discharge cycles is limited as is the lifetime. Until the cost is about halved and the lifetime at least doubled lithium batteries are a rich man’s toy. Also, in Arizona the two major power companies have added grid access charges for solar producers to compensate, supposedly, for not paying their fair share of baseline operating costs. Suddenly, generating excess solar power doesn’t look so good.
A consumer’s best bet is still putting in energy efficient appliances, gas-filled windows, and a heat pump with a high efficiency rating, not to mention more insulation. I have allowed dealers offering both leasing and purchase options to make presentations at my home. None of their solutions would have saved me money. I am 71 and am not interested in twenty year solutions, especially involving current battery technology.
Do not think for a minute that public utilities are not poised to alter their charge structures to make sure they continue to be very profitable. If a lot of people go “off the grid” they will probably end up paying a fee to do this to compensate for their lack of usage of the grid. It has gotten that crazy out there. Remember, home owners in some states have been fined for daring to collect rain water on their property on the theory that rain is a resource belonging to the state.
Yes, and So. Cal. Edison is making noise about charging low-usage customers more…
Southern California Edison and other investor-owned utilities propose to raise rates for people who use less energy, and lower rates for people who use more..
http://www.scpr.org/news/2015/03/30/50660/electricity-rates-could-be-changing-those-who-use/
Simply google Elon Musk rent seeker. He gets rich from from U S government transfers of wealth (money) from middle class taxpayers.
Some guys have all the luck…
Rod Stewart
if you get subsidies/tax break I think (if I remember right) you HAVE to hook to the grid to backfeed it.
I very well may be wrong though so if someone knows for sure (this is in US) please correct me.
Lead acid batteries are heavy, lithium batteries are light. That’s so very important when you have to install them in your home or a garage. /sarc
After reading through the comments, I’m surprised no one has mentioned that Musk is going to provide Apple and Google(?) batteries for their mega-sites in CA and China.
I love the idea of letting all those smart, rich companies work out the laws of physics so we can benefit later.
It is also key to the mega installation near Reno that Tesla is building. Your stock price may vary accordingly.
Lastly, I’ve played with electric/hybrid sailboats (poorly). There is a Greman outfit, Torqeedo that is promoting a similar battery for electric propulsion. Might be Tesla’s.
“I love the idea of letting all those smart, rich companies work out the laws of physics so we can benefit later.”
Has all been worked out long ago.
“There is a Greman outfit, Torqeedo that is promoting a similar battery for electric propulsion. Might be Tesla’s.”
No. They’re all alike. SAFT makes some, for instance, used in hybrid high end limos .
Musk tries to do volume business to reduce cost. That’s all.
Where do all of the vapors expelled while charging/discharging these batteries go? What will the levels be in a community when 1/2 the homeowners have them.?
of good lord … its not cheap (lead acid batteries for the same capacity cost less than $1,000) its not new … nor will it save you money over a good coal fired plant …
Musk is great at marketing and this author is just another sucker that Musk will prey on …
Jack up your house, slide a skateboard under it, slap on one of these batteries, and you’re ready to drag race a Prius.
It appeared to me upon seeing a pic of a Tesla car battery internals, that, they use Kapton insulation. Research Kapton in aircraft wiring. In aircraft wiring it represents an extremely serious known fire hazard once environmental degradation occurs. While the circumstance of usage may be different, it raised questions in my mind as to whether they understood the risks of Kapton. The application may be totally safe given the manner in which they engineered their batteries. But, they need to answer that question.
Insofar as the battery itself, they need to post charge profiles for bulk charging, absorption charging, and float charging. From what I have seen about batteries in the past, if, you want to go solar battery back-up, or, off-grid, Rolls-Surrette lead acid, or, the old Edison nickel-iron batteries are still best in the long run on a cost analysis bases. Nickel-iron can be over or under charged, and, they never wear out. Simply disassemble and wash with water and potash once they degrade. Voila! Good as new. The first Edison batteries still run today.
Re-cycling lithium-ion is nasty and much more expensive at this point in time according to a chemist friend. Currently, these batteries are not really re-cycled. Tesla brushes this aside saying they are incorporating this capacity into their battery plant. But, in reality, re-cycling is an exogenous variable to their cost model, which, will be incorporated at some point.
Bill Webb
I like the Ni-Fe – simple, heavy, reliable. Less harardous for today’s “home owners” and businesses. Certainly not “exotic” though. Are the “old” Bell telephone battery Ni-Fe, or were they lead-acid plates – but with metallic lead, not foamed crystal lead like today’s car batteries?
If anything like the propose Tesla system goes forward we will HAVE to recycle lithium-containing items. Let’s see, we can start with collecting Corningware pots from all those “antique” shops – they are about 5% Li2O by weight. I wonder if that will be enough?
And as a result of more batteries?
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-31709198
I didn’t read all the replies so this may have been brought up already;
I don’t see how this would lower electricity prices. An electric company has a bottom line they need to meet for expenses. If many people went the battery route, those that don’t will pay higher costs to make up the difference. The batteries probably couldn’t be used in sky scrapers, so business building in say, NYC would still rely on power from the grid. If they pay higher electric rates they will just pass the higher cost to their customers.
If solar panels last about 10 years, and the batteries about 3 years, I don’t know how much savings there actually is in going this route. I heard Donald Trump on the radio one day, he said he looked into solar for his buildings but the problem was that by the time the panels pay for themselves they need to be replaced.
It sounds like the batteries might be the same.
Nancy, it won’t lower electricity costs, it increases them. It merely covers off some of the problem of irregular supply from renewable sources. It’s a battery system; it only stores electricity that you’ve manufactured or purchases elsewhere. It’s a pure cost add-on that provides electricity for your television at night after the sun has gone down and your solar array is no longer producing anything.
How much does it cost to have your own fire engine?
Because I’m guessing that the fire brigade won’t want to provide cover for a house with one of these in it. They’re already worried about the lives of their firemen if they tackle a fire with a photo electric array on the roof – because you can’t turn the damn things off from outside…
What is the risk? I guess there’s some fear of a fireman putting a foot or an axe through a live wire (even then, he’s wearing rubber boots and gloves), but I always wondered about the danger of electrocution travelling down the stream of water from a garden or fire hose … a discussion of this elsewhere suggests the “stream” is really a “spray”, and its separate droplets unable to form a conduction path. I would put my money on this. I never noticed whether firemen hunt for a breaker.
http://arstechnica.com/civis/viewtopic.php?f=26&t=158561
A huge Obama and Democrat Donor does a “huge” press release, which really is all about nothing, Praising a nonexistent achievement, while hiding a potential explosion hazard, And claiming that it will revolutionize the GREEN AGENDA and revitalize it….
Sounds like Political double speak and whole bunch of Cr@p…
ON another note, In Wyoming many municipalities are making laws which state all homes must have connection to power, water, and other utilities before they can be habitated. One home which has had its own water system, Its own sewer leach field, and off grid power for over 30 years was fined and forced to connect to all utilities even though it had no need to. The home owner is upset that she now has to pay three bills she had no need for as her systems met code prior to the newly elected liberal council pronounced their mandates… I expect the power companies will push this type of legislation on all off grid homes nation wide soon.
She lives in town. If everybody has their own septic tank and their own well… You get to a certain population density and it just makes sense to share water and sewer in a little more controlled manner.
Besides some of these small towns become end-of-the-road destinations for people with absolutely nothing. They get an old house for little of nothing and they camp there. They don’t keep anything up.
You wouldn’t want them for neighbors. They don’t want you for a neighbor either. They are looking for the end of the road – they just can’t afford to go farther. Live in the country, do what you want. Live in town, there has to be some rules.
Now California municipalities – there is an over regulating force to be reckoned with.
So you like dumping the waste water to a river where it goes into the ocean rather than requiring a proper waste water system that puts the water back into the ground where it will replenish the ground water? And YES it can be done safely with absolutely NO health effects, It is use at the power plant where I worked before I retired. Waste water from the plant and over 1000 workers. The soil, vegetation above the soil and the bacteria action make the water clean enough to drink after proper processing. Sample sites around the facility verify this purity weekly.
Reminds me of Ralph Sarich 40 years ago. Millions of dollars in subsidies to produce an orbital car engine that never worked. A few “revolutionary” off shoot products (such as a parking lot gate) to try to justify the money poured down the drain. Ralph Sarich is now on the BRW top 200 rich list, thanks to the taxpayer.
Now Ralph is tackling that next big grant source: “…look at what the fossil fuels are doing,” Mr Sarich said. “They’ll start melting down the ice caps, which is already worse than scientists originally thought, and that will be catastrophic.”
Wow! What a bunch of skeptics! Isn’t there anyone who thinks this is a good idea? I mean… doesn’t anyone from from Tesla read WUWT?
Steve Clauter
Is not everybody employed at Tesla paid by Tesla to make money for Tesla?
Either from government subsidies and propaganda or Green money or from Big Finance or Big Science (getting money to build up Tesla’s pyramid schemes from politically-corrupted (er, connected) individuals before the company folds completely – AKA Solyndra and the others)? Is not Tesla “getting paid” by being closely associated with Oboma’s “war” against energy and the US and western economies?
Steve Clauter –
That’s because it is clearly not a good idea. There are several superior alternative battery choices for the stand alone home application and the Tesla product offers no advantages to factor in. Even the 2 times depth of discharge advantage of Li ion over lead acid batteries is lost to the 2.5 times cost increase of the Tesla batteries. And the cost of the specialized charge controllers and inverters are not even counted in yet.
Steve Clauter
May 3, 2015 at 2:26 pm
“Wow! What a bunch of skeptics! Isn’t there anyone who thinks this is a good idea?”
Steve, I was involved in the development of a load cycle management for a Li Ion contraption like the proposed one by Tesla from 2009-2011, in Hamburg, Germany. Everyone involved knew that the contraption would be too expensive to actually save the user money so the company continuously sent some boys to Brussels to beg for subsidies for this new, groundbreaking, sustainable thingamagick.
It was just a devel job for me, I had no illusion about the viability of the product. All the technology hasn’t changed since then.
New innovative energy products can only be a good thing no matter where one sites in the climate debate. Let the market measure its value to society.
With more such products, though, the “capitalism was all good fun, but now that the climate apocalypse is upon us we have to get down to the serious business of socialism” crowd will have a smaller iceberg to stand on.
Erik Magnuson May 3, 2015 at 1:44 pm
But Erik, that’s only the capital cost of storage. It doesn’t include the items I listed above, viz:
So we’re still a long, long ways from economical.
And that’s another cost you haven’t included …
If there were a significant advantage overall to lithium ion batteries we’d see them used more for all of the tasks for which we use lead-acid batteries. Currently they are almost exclusively used in situations where lead-acid batteries have never been used, such as portable radios, flashlights, and the like. In general, lithium batteries have replaced alkaline batteries and carbon batteries, but they’ve never beaten lead-acid batteries.
Lithium batteries are generally used where you need to have absolute minimum weight for given power. I use lithium batteries in my power hand tools. For less weight-critical tasks, alkaline batteries and carbon batteries (“C cells”, “AA cells”, and the like) are used.
But when you need large amounts of power, and weight/portability are not an issue, lithium can’t compete with lead-acid. It’s why car and truck 12-volt starter motor batteries are not lithium batteries, but the batteries in electric cars like the Chevy Volt are lithium batteries.
w.
One thing that will compete with Batter motivated AND petrol cars will be LENR powered cars.
Just saying! This is not wishful thinking either.
I hope to see this in my life time.
If not within 20years max headroom.
A lot of live-aboard/long distance trawlers have lived this for years. Generally they use AGM/Glass Mat batteries or some use the 6volt “golf cart” lead acid batteries that need distilled water every week or so. But there are other costs, i.e. inverters, generator fuel when you need to run the generator to run big power users: i.e clothes dryers, davits, AC or other 220v devices. Understanding power management as a way of life, you have to get used to it turning off stuff all the time. Learning about power consumption, being curious on how many amp hours you used in the past 24 hours, and when the 156 pound 8d batteries need to be replaced – about every 5-7 years depending on how many discharge cycles and how many times you went below 50% of the remaining amp hours. Learn about floating, absorption and bulk charging, etc.
A lot to learn for people who are used to “always on” stuff. It could be done, but it will take a few generations of learning curve and a lot more than just batteries.
A quick and dirty analysis of time-shifting based on a single 10 KWH unit, lots of assumptions and sparse facts, but you may be able to adjust the component parts to suit your situation and ongoing factual updates. If you want to optimise time-shifting, then you may need additional components to manage that process.
Assume the battery is $3,500 and the inverter and install are $1,500 for a total of $5,000. Assume the 10 KWH battery can be discharged 50% and recharged every day for 10 years before it dies: 3,600 cycles at 360/year, and assume the inverter will last forever. These are very generous assumptions.
Each year you can time shift 1,800 KWH (360 x 5). If your $5,000 investment cost you 4% interest, then you are out $200 plus $350 battery depreciation each year, for a total of $550. If you save 10 cents per KWH shifted, then you only saved $180 against the annual $550. Your break even point is about 30 cents per each KWH shifted, but I pay less than 15 cents extra for a prime-time KWH. Not promising for me as a time-shift device.
But wait! Each KWH you take in from the grid will be transformed and rectified to low voltage DC, then stored in the battery, then recovered from the battery, then inverted back into high voltage AC. I would be shocked if that process was over 80% efficient. So now the break-even point looks like:
cost per KWH sold – (cost per KWH purchased x 1.25) = 30 cents
Not worth the investment risk for me.
And before you reach anywhere near a 350-450 volt connection make sure your other hand is behind you back, you are wearing rubber-soled shoes, the floor is dry (no cool concrete on a warm humid day), and you have a friend across the room ready to dial 911 on your behalf. If there are smoothing capacitors in-circuit this applies even after the power is off.
I prefer my house un-exploded, thanks. I’ll pass.
Upon looking at the battery pack, then reading the specs and seeing the price, my initial thoughts were ‘visially attractive product, easy to use, yet not a great leap forward and more expensive than the competition’.
Therefore the only thing missing is an Apple logo on the front cover.