The Week That Was: 2015-04-11 (April 11, 2015) Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org) The Science and Environmental Policy Project
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Climate and Health: By using the Freedom of Information Act, Chris Horner, of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, obtained an email addressed to “Richard Winsor” the imaginary employee of EPA used by Lisa Jackson as a disguise for receiving and sending email. The particular email in question, dated March 18, 2009, discussed strategic communications and suggested EPA shift its tactics from emphasizing the weakening science of global warming to the fear of pollution, especially air quality, with emphasis on the EPA’s Children’s Health Office. As discussed in the February 7 and February 14 TWTWs, the EPA has done this, making many highly questionable claims about respiratory diseases, such as asthma, even though the causes are not known and the disease may be greatly over-diagnosed, not only in the US but in England as well. TWTW cited research that made the claims dubious, at best.
This week, the Administration announced a major marketing campaign involving the Surgeon General of the US and many government agencies claiming that climate change is a threat to public health. One of the featured diseases is asthma, particularly childhood asthma. The effort is led by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), with an enacted budget for fiscal year 2014 of $2.489 billion from various agencies plus an additional $14 million from the State Department and USAID.
The President added a now common personal touch by claiming that his daughter suffers from asthma caused by climate change. Now, instead of claiming the coal-fired power plants cause asthma, the Administration is claiming climate change causes asthma.
The executive summary of the report declares that: “Changes in climate, specifically rising temperatures, increasing precipitation, and increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, are expected to contribute to increasing levels of some airborne allergens and associated increases in asthma episodes and other allergic illnesses compared to a future without climate change.” The report asserts a high confidence in this finding. [Please note that each page of the report states: “Draft for Public Comment. Do Not Cite or Quote.”]
Humanity evolved beginning about 6 million years, with homo-sapiens appearing about two hundred thousand years ago. For about 2.5 million years the earth has had extreme climate change of ice ages with long periods of glaciation and brief periods of warmth. According to the Administration, humanity, which evolved in the tropics during extreme climate change, is now threatened by climate change and warmth?
According to the announcement by USGCRP, public comments must be submitted by 12:00pm Eastern time, June 8, 2015. To adequately prepare SEPP’s comments, over the next several weeks, TWTW will present certain parts of this document, with comments, for review by its readership. The goal will not be to prepare an exhaustive rebuttal, but to prepare a 5 to 10 page document refuting of the most salient points. The adequacy or inadequacy of hypothesis testing will be emphasized. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy, Communicating Better to the Public – Use PSYOPs, http://www.globalchange.gov/about/budget, and https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/march-09-epa-strategy-memo-to-lpj.pdf
Quote of the Week: “When we allow science to become political then we are lost. We will enter the internet version of the Dark Ages, an era of stifling fears and wild prejudices, transmitted to people who don’t know any better.” Michael Crichton [H/t Tim Ball]
Number of the Week: 13
SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving, following these criteria:
· The nominee has advanced, or proposes to advance, significant expansion of governmental power, regulation, or control over the public or significant sections of the general economy.
· The nominee does so by declaring such measures are necessary to protect public health, welfare, or the environment.
· The nominee declares that physical science supports such measures.
· The physical science supporting the measures is flimsy at best, and possibly non-existent.
The three past recipients, Lisa Jackson, Barrack Obama, and John Kerry, are not candidates. Generally, the committee that makes the selection prefers a candidate with a national or international presence. The voting will close on May 1. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. Thank you.
PSYOPs: Students of Psychological Warfare may recognize the Administration’s tactics as typical psychological operations – PSYOPs. The Department of Defense defines PSYOPs as “planned operations to convey selected information and indicators to foreign audiences to influence the emotions, motives, objective reasoning, and ultimately the behavior of foreign governments, organizations, groups, and individuals.”
Though practiced for countless generations, PSYOPs came into full flower during World War I, with the belligerents using it both against the enemy and on their own people. In general, when using PSYOPs, propaganda, on their own populations, the Germans ridiculed the allies as incompetent, the allies de-humanized the Germans. In preparing for World War II, Hitler, and others, recognized the allied effort was more effective than the German effort. During World War II, all sides depicted their own populations as heroic and the enemy as sub-human.
During World War I, Edward Bernays was one of the foremost practitioners of PSYOPs for the United States. He wrote the influential Propaganda, published in 1928. At the time, propaganda did not have the negative connotations it developed during World War II and afterwards. Bernays made a fortune advertising for cigarette companies. Later, when the strong evidence became known that cigarette smoking is harmful to health, Bernays dropped these accounts.
There is a legal issue if the US Information and Educational Exchange Act of 1948 (Smith–Mundt Act), which restricts the use of PSYOPs and propaganda on the US population, applies to all agencies of the US, or just the Department of State. Nevertheless, it is important to identify government use of these tactics on the public.
One could argue that propaganda has been common in the global warming/climate change issues. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the USGCRP, which follows it, have become ever more strident with certainty in their science that humans are the primary cause of global warming/climate change. This certainty is being increasingly questioned as nature refuses to follow the forecasts of an ever-warming globe. Increasingly, natural variation is coming to the fore.
The hockey-stick, which minimized natural variation, and emphasized late 20th century warming is but one example of the stridency, which could be viewed as propaganda or PSYOPs. The personal investigations by members of Congress on the private funding of researchers who express doubt about the official science are another example of PSYOPs, propaganda. So are the unsubstantiated claims that independent scientists questioning the IPCC received funding from tobacco companies, etc. The these claims are particularly disturbing when those making such claims are honored by once distinguished scientific institutions. In some small measure, we should be thankful that the Administration has become so blatant in its efforts, allowing PSYOPs and propaganda to be openly discussed in its proper context. See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use PSYOPs
Another View of US Health Effects from Climate Change: In 2012 the Cato Institute released a point-by-point rebuttal to the 2009 report of the USGCRP. Unlike the 2009 USGCRP, the Cato report contained a chapter on human health. As Patrick Michaels and Chip Knappenberger discuss the key points in that chapter are:
• “The health effects of climate change on the United States are negligible today, and likely to remain so in the future, unless the United States goes into precipitous economic and technological decline.
• Death certificate data indicate that 46 percent of all deaths from extreme weather events in the United States from 1993-2006 were from excessive cold, 28 percent were from excessive heat, 10 percent were from hurricanes, 7 percent were from floods, and 4 percent were from tornadoes.
• Over the long term, deaths from extreme weather events have declined in the United States.
• Deaths in the United States peak in the colder months and are at a minimum in the warmer months.
• In U.S. cities, heat-related mortality declines as heat waves become stronger and/or more frequent.
• Census data indicate that the migration of Americans from the cold northern areas to the warmer southwest saves about 4,600 lives per year and is responsible for three to seven per cent of the gains in life expectancy from 1970-2000.
• While the U.S. Global Change Research Program states that “Some diseases transmitted by food, water, and insects are likely to increase,” incidence of these diseases have been reduced by orders of magnitude in the United States over the past century, and show no sign of resurgence.”
To this, SEPP can add that according to the two largest re-insurance companies in the world, monetary losses from extreme weather events are declining, but losses from cold weather in the US are increasing. The Administration needs to be informed that its PSYOPs campaign has already been decimated. Only an update for its new claims is needed. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy
Convincing a Skeptic: Ron Bailey of Reason Magazine asked: “What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?” The short answer to that is: if you are referring to carbon-dioxide caused global warming, now called climate change, show a global climate model that has been verified and validated. In spite of the U.S spending over $35 billion on climate science, there are none.
Failing that, show a global climate model with significant predictive skill – it forecasts temperatures well. Judith Curry observed: that “there is one climate model that falls within the range of the observational estimates: INMCM4 (Russian).” As Curry notes, others observed that the Russian CMIP-5 model is performing the best with HADCRUT 4 and Berkeley Earth surface temperature data and it “has high inertia from ocean heat capacities, low forcing from CO2 and less water for feedback.”
In different posts Roy Spencer and Christopher Monckton answer Bailey’s question in greater detail. Spencer’s comments are particularly succinct:
“The first problem I have is with his premise: that skeptics believe humans have no role in climate change. I don’t know of any serious skeptics who hold such a view. Now, maybe he is addressing people who deny any human involvement in global warming. His article is vague, and maybe he can clarify his intent for us.
“The second problem I have is with Ron’s list of a variety of evidences of global-average warming, which (again) no skeptic worth their salt disputes. The science dispute is over how much of the warming is manmade versus natural. Like too many others, Ron conflates climate change with human-caused climate change, which are not the same thing.
“Regarding his list, he seems to believe they are independent evidences of manmade warming. Wrong. To the extent warming occurs, even if it is entirely natural, warming would occur in the atmosphere and deep ocean; it would cause an increase in atmospheric water vapor, as well as precipitation; the warming would be stronger in the upper troposphere than the lower troposphere; and stronger over land than over the ocean.
“These things would all occur together anyway, no matter the cause of the warming, Ron. And causation is, indeed, the question which science so far cannot answer.
“Since climate models cannot even hindcast what has happened (let alone forecast), they clearly have no handle on multi-decadal temperature changes brought about by natural effects. There does not even need to be any forcing — e.g. the sun, volcanoes, etc. — in order for climate to change because the ocean-atmosphere system is nonlinear and dynamical — in a word, chaotic. It can change all by itself. For example, [in] this plot we see that global warming (and cooling) has been the rule, not the exception, for the last 2,000 years:” [Plot given in post.]
“Significantly, that warming occurred during the period when climate modelers developed their models, and since they assumed all warming was manmade, they had to increase the models’ sensitivity. Now, they are between a rock and a hard place, continuing to publish overly-sensitivity models they know are wrong (based upon both surface AND deep ocean warming rates).”
Spencer’s point that a list of the consequences of global warming is not evidence of cause is particularly salient. Repeatedly, there are studies of the projections from climate models being given as evidence. Yet, projections from climate models, which have not been validated, are little more than sophisticated speculation and are categorized in TWTW under the heading Un-Science or Non-Science?
Spencer’s point of the models being developed during a time of warming, which was assumed to be man-made, and now overestimate warming is crucial. The failure of government to fund natural causes of recent warming and cooling is becoming apparent and its interpretation of climate science is biased.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://judithcurry.com/2015/03/23/climate-sensitivity-lopping-off-the-fat-tail/
Acidic Waters? There were several recent articles on the mass extinction that occurred about 252 million years ago. Most discussions attributed the extinction to enormous volcanic activity, particularly the region of north-central Russia called the Siberian Traps. For example, Ian Plimer’s heaven+earth states the eruption may have released sufficient sulfur dioxide to cause intensely acidic rain and perhaps cause the ocean surfaces to become acidic for a brief time. A recent paper published in Science attributes the lowering of pH to carbon dioxide (CO2). However, the abstract does not explain how the technique used to measure pH can separate if the cause of the lowering is due to carbon dioxide (carbolic acid) or due to sulfuric acid. Those claiming that carbon dioxide emissions will cause acidic waters will support the CO2 explanation, even though sulfuric acid is far stronger than carbolic acid.
TWTW reader Clyde Spencer writes: “I question whether a highly-buffered alkaline solution (sea water) can dissolve enough CO2 to truly become acidic. From reading in my college oceanography text, it appears that even in hydrogen sulfide-rich waters in ‘dead’ zones, sea water rarely even gets as low as pH 7 [neutral]. Club Soda, which is un-buffered and saturated with CO2, has a pH of about 5. That is probably the lowest fresh water can get with only carbonic acid present.”
Decaying vegetation can cause freshwater bodies to reach significant acid levels, far below 7 (neutral). For example, Okefenokee is a southern blackwater swamp (or bog) stretching from southern Georgia to northern Florida. It has a measured pH between 3.5 and 3.9. Yet it supports plant and animal communities including insects, fishes, birds, turtles and alligators. None are unique to the swamp. It also supports smaller creatures such as crustaceans. Before jumping to conclusions about the acidic effects of carbon dioxide, the research be must explored further. See links under Changing Earth — Acidic Waters and https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/44153/BergstedtA-97.pdf
Lowering Standards: The American Physical Society (APS) is revisiting its policy statement on global warming. The draft statement reads:
On Climate Change:
Earth’s changing climate is a critical issue that poses the risk of significant disruption around the globe. While natural sources of climate variability are significant, multiple lines of evidence indicate that human influences have had an increasingly dominant effect on the climate warming observed since the mid-twentieth century. Although the magnitudes of future effects are uncertain, human influences on the climate are growing. The potential consequences of climate change are great and the policies of the next few decades will determine human influences on the climate for centuries.
On Climate Science:
As summarized in the 2013 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there continues to be significant progress in climate science. In particular, the connection between rising concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased warming of the global climate system is more certain than ever. Nevertheless, as recognized by Working Group 1 of the IPCC, scientific challenges remain to our abilities to observe, interpret, and project climate changes. To better inform societal choices, the APS urges sustained research in climate science.
On Climate Action:
The APS reiterates its 2007 call to support actions that will reduce the emissions, and ultimately the concentration, of greenhouse gases, as well as increase the resilience of society to a changing climate. Because physics and its techniques are fundamental elements of climate science, the APS further urges physicists to collaborate with colleagues across disciplines in climate research and to contribute to the public dialogue.
Some had hoped that the APS would consider recent research suggesting natural influences play an important role in climate change, but the bureaucracy is too entrenched. What it defines as “significant progress in climate science” is anyone’s guess. Steve Koonin’s participation in an APS workshop give rise for some hope beyond the bureaucratic science. But to no avail. Writing in Climate Etc., Koonin points out the human (anthropogenic) influence is very small compared with the natural influences on climate, which are many times larger. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
Number of the Week: 13. There are 13 federal government entities identified as taking part in the US Global Change Research Program and the president’s new PSYOPs offensive. The government entities are: Departments of Agriculture; Commerce; Defense; Energy; Health and Human Services; Interior; State; Transportation; plus EPA, NASA, NSF, Smithsonian Institution and USAID. http://www.globalchange.gov/agencies
Please note that articles not linked or summarized here are reproduced in the Articles Section of the full TWTW that can be found on the web site under the date of the TWTW.
1. Calling Obama’s Bluff on Climate Change
The president is threatening to bypass Congress and sign an international treaty. Here’s how to box him in.
By Steven Hayward, WSJ, Apr 6, 2015
[SUMMARY: Hayward, a target of the congressional witch-hunt, suggests two methods of forcing Mr Obama to seek Congressional approval for any agreement limiting CO2 emissions for the US in the meeting to take place this November and December in Paris.
“First, the House and Senate could pass the climate equivalent of trade-promotion authority, telling Mr. Obama to go forth and negotiate an agreement subject to specific conditions. A climate version should include language saying that any agreement must not be economically asymmetrical, but above all stating that Congress will hold an up-or-down vote on whatever the president brings back from Paris.
“Second, the House and Senate could pass a bill blocking federal agencies from regulating greenhouse-gas emissions until two conditions are met: 1) Congress ratifies a new post-2020 climate agreement; and 2) the nations entering the agreement represent at least 80% of global greenhouse emissions. (The Kyoto Protocol covered barely more than half of the world’s total emissions.)”
These measures would: “expose the breathtaking insincerity and situational ethics of Mr. Obama’s executive usurpations. The president has said that climate change is a more serious global threat than Islamic State—on which Mr. Obama has consulted Congress by asking for a new use-of-force resolution. Why not similarly seek the involvement of Congress in global warming, which he considers the more important challenge?”]
2. Harry Reid’s Nuclear Taxpayer Waste
The legal bills for killing Yucca Mountain are billions and climbing.
Editorial, WSJ, Apr 6, 2015
“We’ve been telling you about Harry Reid’s bargain with President Obama to kill the Yucca Mountain nuclear waste site in Nevada in return for all but shutting down the Senate. It turns out the deal is even more expensive than that.”
The National Law Journal reported a review of federal payouts in 2014 to resolve litigation against the government. “The Energy Department was the biggest spender, accounting for nearly one-third ($929 million) of the $3 billion the feds forked over in verdicts or settlements.”
The Journal did not go into details, “it noted that “most” of that $929 million “went to nuclear power plants to settle breach-of-contract claims involving the storage of spent nuclear fuel.” Our legal sources tell us “most” means about $915 million.”
“Credit for this huge legal bill goes to Mr. Reid, who installed a handpicked aide, Gregory Jaczko, as chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in 2009. Mr. Jaczko proceeded to do everything in his power to block the nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. As a result the feds have been in breach of agreements to accept spent nuclear fuel, and the lawsuits from utilities have rolled in. Energy has paid more than $4 billion as a result of such suits over the past four years, and by some estimates total liability for these legal breaches could exceed $50 billion.”
“Energy’s litigation costs are covered by a separate pot of money known as the federal Judgment Fund. The National Law Journal describes this fund as a “permanent, indefinite appropriation, exempt from annual congressional approval.” Which means that taxpayers can look forward to footing the legal bill for Mr. Reid’s Yucca Mountain protection racket for years to come.”]
3. The State Electricity Revolt
A promising way to resist Obama’s federal climate coercion.
Editorial, WSJ, Apr 9, 2015
[SUMMARY: The EPA’s power plan can endanger the reliability of the electricity grid.
“Under the cooperative federalism of the Clean Air Act, states are invited to draw up implementation plans for EPA approval. But they have no legal obligation to do so, because the feds cannot commandeer the states. The EPA can pursue a fallback federal plan if it doesn’t like what states do. But there is good reason for the states to band together, refuse to participate, and thus call the EPA’s bluff.
“In particular, states would avoid making themselves complicit in dangerous behavior. Virtually everyone who understands the electric grid, from state utility commissions to the regional transmission operators, warns that the EPA’s ambitions threaten reliability. These apolitical organizations think brownouts or cascading blackouts are possible.
“The section 111(d) rewrite [by the EPA, running some 1,200 pages, of a provision in the Clean Air Act] will be litigated for years or decades and almost certainly resolved by the Supreme Court. The 2016 White House budget requests $52 million merely to hire lawyers to defend this single rule. It would be prudent for states to postpone cooperation until the lawsuits shake out, rather than spend billions of dollars now that may turn out to be unnecessary.
“More to the point, the states ought to decline to lend political legitimacy to an extraordinary abuse of federal power. The EPA is not merely exercising the lawmaking that belongs to Congress but frustrating democratic accountability. If the EPA causes a blackout, then voters should understand that the EPA is the cause, not a Governor.”]
NEWS YOU CAN USE:
Science: Is the Sun Rising?
NASA Study Finds Small Solar Eruptions Can Have Profound Effects On Unprotected Planets
Press Release by Karen Fox, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t William Readdy]
Sun Experiences Seasonal Changes, New Research Finds
Press Release, NCAR/UCAR, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t William Readdy]
Link to paper: The solar magnetic activity band interaction and instabilities that shape quasi-periodic variability
By McIntosh, et al, Nature Communications, Apr 7, 2015
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Sunshine Increasing Across All Seasons In England
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry – The Witch Hunt – Push-Back
Calling all supporters of Dr. Willie Soon
By Christopher Monckton, David Legates and Matt Briggs, WUWT, Apr 10, 2015
Challenging the Orthodoxy
White House Announces Initiative to Focus on Health Concerns of Global Warming: We’ve Already Done It For Them!
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Apr 7, 2015
Link to Report: ADDENDUM: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States
By Patrick Michaels, Editor-in-Chief, Cato Institute, 2012
Answering Ron Bailey’s Question: “What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?”
By Roy Spencer, His Blog – Global Warming, Apr 6, 2015
Link to article: What Evidence Would Persuade You That Man-Made Climate Change Is Real?
By Ronald Bailey, Reason.com, Apr 3, 2015
How to convince a climate skeptic he’s wrong
By Christopher Monckton, WUWT, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Another response to Bailey’s question – immediately above.]
Are human influences on the climate really small?
By Steven Koonin, Climate Etc. Apr 8, 2015
Freeman Dyson on the gas that we call life
By Luboš Motl, The Reference Frame, Apr 8, 2015 [link to video]
Has The Guardian “Rolling Stoned” Christy & Spencer?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Global Warming, Apr 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: See article by Dana Nuccitelli under Defending the Orthodoxy.]
Huang’s Inconvenient Paper
By Paul Homewood Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 4, 2015
Link to paper: Late Quaternary temperature changes seen in world-wide continental heat flow measurements
By Huang, Pollack, and Shen, Geophysical Research Letters, Aug 1, 1997 (Dec 7, 2012 online)
“Analysis of more than six thousand continental heat flow measurements as a function of depth has yielded a reconstruction of a global average ground surface temperature history over the last 20,000 years. The early to mid-Holocene appears as a relatively long warm interval some 0.2–0.6 K above present-day temperatures, the culmination of the warming that followed the end of the last glaciation. Temperatures were also warmer than present 500–1,000 years ago, but then cooled to a minimum some 0.2–0.7 K below present about 200 years ago. Although temperature variations in this type of reconstruction are highly smoothed, the results clearly resemble the broad outlines of late Quaternary climate changes suggested by proxies.”
[SEPP Comment: This paper has been available for almost two decades. Yet, the IPCC, and its followers, ignore it, indicating a great bias in the selection of scientific papers by these organizations.]
Pitfalls in climate sensitivity estimation: Part 1
By Nicholas Lewis, Climate Audit, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Addressing the critical issue of how sensitive is the earth temperatures to a doubling of carbon dioxide.]
Defending the Orthodoxy
Draft Climate & Health Assessment Available for Public Review
By Staff Writers, U.S. Global Change Research Program, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t CATO]
Report: USGCRP Climate & Health Assessment
“Thirteen Agencies, One Vision: Empower the Nation with Global Change Science”
“This is a draft report. Its contents should not be cited or reproduced.”
FACT SHEET: Administration Announces Actions To Protect Communities From The Impacts Of Climate Change
Press Release, White House, Apr 7, 2014 [H/t Malcolm Ross]
Obama: ‘A lot more work to do’ on climate
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 7, 2015
“Those efforts led White House press secretary Josh Earnest to declare Tuesday that Obama will go down as the ‘greenest president’ ever.”
Obama says climate change is harming Americans’ health
By Josh Lederman, AP, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Storm as National Trust [UK] boss vows to go to war on global warming: Charity warned not to meddle in politics after its pledge to step up attempts to tackle climate change
By Ben Spencer, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 6, 2015
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Reply to ‘Anesthetic gases raise Earth’s temperature (a little) while you sleep’
By Charles G. Battig, M.D., WUWT, Apr 9, 2015
Clean Power Plan Justification Is Hot Air
By Larry Bell, Newsmax, Apr 6, 2015
Climate of denial
Editorial, New York Post, Apr 1, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Arctic sea ice extent total for March does not equal global polar bear habitat
By Susan Crockford, Polar Bear Science, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Measurements of decline in Arctic Ice are meaningless in predicting effects on polar bears if the decline occurs in areas in which polar bears do not live, breed, feed, etc.]
Scientists On Trial? Retired Lawyer’s Blogsite To Examine Earlier “Predictions” Made By Climate “Experts”
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 10, 2015
Using the Global Warming Hoax to Destroy America
By Alan Caruba, Warning Signs, Apr 8, 2015
On to Paris!
Climate change availability cascade
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 9, 2015
“Is climate change making us stupid? I fear that the answer is ‘yes.’ This problem is exacerbated by politically correct climate change orthodoxy, enforced by politicians, advocates and the media in an availability cascade, which is destroying our ability to think rationally about how we should respond to climate change. As a result, we have created a political log-jam over this issue, with scientists caught in the cross-fire.”
[SEPP Comment: Some climate scientists are doing the shooting.]
Social Benefits of Carbon
Planet Earth is actually getting greener — but that might not be a good thing
By Michael Miller, Washington Post, Apr 10, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: Turning good news into bad.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Modi says India to strike own path in climate battle
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Apr 6, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Scientists predict gradual, prolonged permafrost greenhouse gas emissions
By Staff Writer, Phys Org, Apr 8, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Link to paper: Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback
By Schuur et al, Nature, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Not the sudden burst of methane many claim, if it occurs at all.]
UN Climate Official: “We Should Make Every Effort” To Decrease World Population (VIDEO)
By Patch Adams, Gateway Pundit, Apr 6, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Seeking a Common Ground
Why Summer Nighttime Temperatures Don’t Fall Below Freezing
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Apr 10, 2015
Climate sensitivity: Ringberg edition
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 5, 2015
Iceberg of disagreement
By Verity Jones, Digging in the Clay, Apr 5, 5015 [H/t WUWT]
[SEPP Comment: A convenient way of approaching disputes.]
You Ought to Have a Look: Curry on Worry
By Patrick J. Michaels and Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger, CATO, Apr 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Also discusses “Retraction Watch.”]
Review of Recent Scientific Articles by CO2 Science
Strong Storms of the Little Ice Age on the Southern Coast of Brazil
Oliveira, F.M., Macario, K.D., Simonassi, J.C., Gomes, P.R.S., Anjos, R.M., Carvalho, C., Linares, R., Alves, E.Q., Castro, M.D., Souza, R.C.C.L. and Marques Jr., A.N. 2014. Evidence of strong storm events possibly related to the Little Ice Age in sediments on the southern coast of Brazil. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 415: 233-239., Apr 8, 2015
The Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM)
Ji, D., Wang, L., Feng, J., Wu, Q., Cheng, H., Zhang, Q., Yang, J., Dong, W., Dai, Y.., Gong, D., Zhang, R.-H., Wang, X., Liu, J., Moore, J.C., Chen, D. and Zhou, M. 2014. Description and basic evaluation of Beijing Normal University Earth System Model (BNU-ESM) version 1. Geoscientific Model Development 7: 2039-2064. Apr 7, 2015
”Yet in spite of all of these deficiencies, Ji et al. write that the BNU-ESM model ‘is being actively used by many researchers in prognostic simulations for both anthropogenic and geo-engineering forcing scenarios.’”
Chitons Facing Ocean Acidification Grit Their Teeth and Prosper
Sigwart, J.D. and Carey, N. 2014. Grazing under experimental hypercapnia and elevated temperature does not affect the radula of a chiton (Mollusca, Polyplacophora, Lepidopleurida). Marine Environmental Research 102: 73-77. Apr 6, 2015
Century-Long Trends in Water Use Efficiency of European Forests
Saurer, M., Spahni, R., Frank, D.C., Joos, F., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N.J., McCarroll, D., Gagen, M., Poulter, B., Siegwolf, R.W., Andreu-Hayles, L., Boettger, T., Linan, I.D., Fairchild, I.J., Friedrich, M., Gutierrez, S., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Heinrich, I., Helle, G., Grudd, H., Jalkanen, R., Levanic, T., Linderholm, H.W., Robertson, I., Sonninen, E., Treydte, K., Waterhouse, J.S., Woodley, E.J., Wynn, P.M. and Young, G.H.F. 2014. Spatial variability and temporal trends in water-use efficiency of European forests. Global Change Biology 20: 3700-371, Apr 6, 2015
Models v. Observations
What Caused the Global Warming Pause or Why Hate the Hiatus?
By Ed Caryl, No Tricks Zone, Apr 8, 2015
A reply to Born: How to represent temperature feedbacks in a simple model
By Christopher Monckton, David Legates, Willie Soon and Matt Briggs, UWUT, Apr 5, 2015
NASA [GISS] Junk Science – Worse Than It Seems
By Steven Goddard, Real Science, Apr 9, 2015
“NASA has doubled 1890-1980 global warming since 1981, simply by altering their data set progressively over time.”
More On Adjustments At De Bilt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 10, 2015
Two-thirds of Australia’s warming due to “adjustments” — according to 84 historic stations
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 8, 2015
Researchers map seasonal greening in US forests, fields, and urban areas
By Staff Writers, Asheville NC (SPX), Apr 05, 2015
Link to ForWarn web site: Satellite Based Climate Recognition and Tracking
2015 was the coldest January through March in the entire record in the 10 Northeast States and DC
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 10, 2015
In the Northeast, February like no other in our lifetime, JFM harshest since the Little Ice Age
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 8, 2015
Meteorologist: Northeast Has Snowiest Winter Since 1717
By Michael Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 10, 2015
Amazing Video of Rochelle, IL Tornado Yesterday
By Roy Spencer, Global Warming, Apr 10, 2015
Link to: The Tornado—Pacific Decadal Oscillation Connection
By Roy Spencer, May 25, 2011
“If warm, moist air was the missing ingredient [for tornadoes], the tropics would be filled with tornadoes.”
California Drought: The Rest of the Story
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Apr 9, 2015
“These results suggest that natural internally generated changes in atmospheric circulation were the primary cause of coastal NE Pacific warming from 1900 to 2012 and demonstrate more generally that regional mechanisms of interannual and multidecadal temperature variability can also extend to century time scales.” [Johnstone and Mantua]
Human Alteration of Climate: What the Media Rarely Talks About
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The author leaves out that some studies of the Central Valley, CA, show that irrigation causes nighttime warming exceeding daytime cooling. The nighttime warming is due to increased humidity, water vapor.]
‘Warm blob’ in Pacific Ocean not caused by climate change, affects U.S. weather
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 9, 2015
‘Warm blob’ in Pacific Ocean linked to weird weather across the US
By Staff Writers, Science Daily, Apr 9, 2015
Link to paper: Causes and Impacts of the 2014 Warm Anomaly in the NE Pacific
By Bond, Cronin, Freeland, and Mantua, Geophysical Research Letters, Apr 6, 2015
NOAA ENSO Model Now Forecasting a Supercalifragilistic El Niño for 2015/16 Season
By Bob Tisdale, WUWT, Apr 10, 2015
Who’d A Thought It? Whales ‘Adapt To Sea Warming’
By Mark Macaskill, The Sunday Times, Via GWPF, Apr 5, 2015
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Making the case for arctic ice recovery by 2020
By Joseph D’Aleo and Joe Bastardi, Weatherbell Analytics LLC, ICECAP Apr 8, 2015
Changing Earth — Acidic Waters?
Carbon was critical to ocean life’s survival 252 million years ago
By Staff Writers, Arlington TX (SPX), Apr 08, 2015
Link to paper: High influx of carbon in walls of agglutinated foraminifers during the Permian-Triassic transition in global oceans
By Nestell, et al, International Geology Review, March, 2015
Greatest mass extinction driven by acidic oceans, study finds
By Staff Writers, Edinburgh UK (SPX), Apr 10, 2015
Link to paper: Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction
By Clarkson, et al. Science, Apr 10, 2015
Oxygen-depleted oceans had key role in mass extinction over 200M years ago
By Staff Writers, Southampton UK (SPX), Apr 05, 2015
The Last Time Oceans Got This Acidic This Fast, 96% of Marine Life Went Extinct
By Brian Merchant, Motherboard, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
The invisible helping hand
By Martin Livermore, The Scientific Alliance, Apr 10, 2015
Un-Science or Non-Science?
Canada glaciers to shrink by 70% by 2100
By Richard Ingham, AFP, Apr 6, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
Complex landscape has both vulnerabilities and resilience to change
By Staff Writers Houghton MI (SPX) Apr 07, 2015
Link to report: Central Appalachians forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Appalachians Climate Change Response Framework project
By Butler, et al, USDA Forest Service, 2015
Draft APS Statement on Climate Change
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. Apr 7, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate change seen bringing more fires, less snow to Yellowstone
By Laura Zuckermann, Reuters, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
“Such dry condition have not been seen in the area for the past 10,000 years, said the report.”
[SEPP Comment: Based on accounts from contemporary newspapers in the area, the 1988 Yellowstone fire was a controlled burn, which got out of control. Afterwards, the Green groups and Forest Service praised it. Aspen and whitebark pine are an important food for grizzly bears?]
WAPO’s Dana Milbanks’ Epic Climate Change Fail
By James Delingpole, Breitbart, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
More Americans Trust Fox News Than Obama On Climate Change, Poll Finds
By James Gerken, Huff Post, Green, Apr 2, 2015
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Another call to arrest climate “deniers”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Apr 7, 2015
Climate-change deniers are in retreat
By Dana Milbank, Washington Post, Apr 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: According to Joe Bast, President of Heartland, the Institute is not backing down. If government funding, which ignores natural causes of climate change, were cut-off, the so-called crisis would quickly disappear]
A revealing interview with top contrarian climate scientists
John Christy and Roy Spencer are pro-fossil fuel and anti-scientific consensus
By Dana Nuccitelli, The Guardian, UK, Apr 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Another “objective” article in the Guardian which links those who question human-caused global warming with those who question cigarette smoking can cause lung cancer.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use PSYOPs
Doctrine for Joint Psychological Operations
By Staff Writers, For the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, September 5, 2003
Asthma Justification for EPA Regulations Gutted by the Latest Science
By Paul C. “Chip” Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, CATO, Feb 5, 2015
Link to paper: Neighborhood poverty, urban residence, race/ethnicity, and asthma: Rethinking the inner-city asthma epidemic
By Keet, et al, Journal of Asthma and Clinical Immunology, Jan 20, 2015
Sorry, Mr. President, Global Warming Didn’t Cause Malia’s Asthma
Editorial, IBD, Apr 8, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Global warming didn’t give Malia asthma:
President’s smoking more likely to cause daughter’s health problem than climate change.
By James Robbins, USA Today, Apr 9, 2015
Global warming didn’t give Malia asthma; WV students can debate global warming
President Obama Plays the Asthma Card
By Marlo Lewis, ICECAP, Apr 9, 2015
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Obama: ‘Climate Change Is a Primary National Security Threat’
By Staff Writers, CNS News, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
[SEPP Comment: A collection of assertions that are contrary to facts.]
Questioning European Green
Greens Humiliated! Whopping 92% Of Swiss Vote ‘No’ To Non-Renewable Energy Tax …”Historic Debacle”
By P. Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: It is easier for Greens to ignore than to comment!]
Recent Storm Over Europe Exposes The Lies Of The Energiewende…Is A Stable Grid A Thing Of The Past?
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 9, 2015
Who Needs Electricity Anyway?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2015
“Wind turbines are currently supplying just 0.3% of UK electricity demand. [at that date]. Fortunately, coal, gas and nuclear are contributing 84.2%, and the French are helping out with 6.1%.
“What will happen when all our coal power stations are shut in a few years’ time?”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
War on Fossil Fuels Tragedy
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 10, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Many who make grand pronouncements about sacrifice have no idea of how to live without electricity, about the global distribution of resources, and the costs to redistribute electricity.]
Norway plans to drop worst greenhouse gas emitters from wealth fund
By Staff Writers, Reuters, Apr 10, 2015 [H/t Clyde Spencer]
[SEPP Comment: Such as those in the very industry that created the sovereign wealth fund?]
The Traitor Tribe?
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 8, 2015
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
The Mask Slips on the Climate Scam
By Steven Hayward, Power Line, Apr 5, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
“Carbon Taxes and Global Warming” (Roy Cordato’s 1992 insight for today)
By Roy Cordato, Master Resource, Apr 6, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Such taxes reduce market efficiency. The claim that the tax money would be 100% returned to citizens is absurd.]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA sends controversial water pollution rule to White House
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 6, 2015
Energy Issues – Non-US
Time for political leadership to resolve Renewable Energy Target crisis
By Staff Writers, Melbourne, Australia (SPX) Apr 07, 2015
[SEPP Comment: The renewable energy crisis is self-inflicted. No one is forbidding the building of renewable, unlike coal in some places. The issue is that the renewable energy sector cannot match other sources for reliable, affordable electricity. It requires subsides that others do not.]
As Germans Block Danish Wind, a New Feud Tests Crisis-Weary EU
By Jesper Starn and Weixin Zha, Bloomberg, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Easter Blackout! Cologne Area And ‘Phantasia’ Amusement Park Lose Power 3 Times In 24 Hours! Green Energy To Blame?
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2015
France: ‘Buried shale gas report’ kicks off new row
By Oliver Gee, The Local, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Energy Issues — US
America’s Shale Fields Could Improve International Interests
By Staff Writers, NCPA, Apr 6, 2015
Link to Article: America’s Shale Fields Offer A Chance For A New Oil Doctrine To “Reset” Geopolitics
By Mark Mills, Forbes, Mar 30, 2015
Washington’s Control of Energy
Obama formally proposes Alaska refuge protections
By Timothy Cama, The Hill, Apr 3, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Deny oil to the Alaskan pipeline.]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Top 12 Media Myths On Oil Prices
By Dan Doyle, Real Clear Energy, Apr 9, 2015
Shale Oil Revolution Continues
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 7, 2015
Home counties ‘have as much oil as North Sea’: Area may boast 100 billion barrels… but experts say that’s optimistic
By Louis Eccles and Laura Chesters, Daily Mail, UK, Apr 9, 2015
Over £300bn worth of oil ‘discovered’ in West Sussex
UKOG claims the site has the potential to be a “world class potential resource” but industry experts sound notes of caution
By Ben Wright, Telegraph, UK, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
An Elephant Under England?
By Staff Writers, The American Interest, Apr 9, 2015
Texas energy sector can weather the storm, officials say
By Daniel J. Graeber, San Antonio (UPI), Apr 3, 2015
Fracking’s Earthquake Problem, and How to Tackle It
By Staff Writers, American Interest, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t Climate Etc.]
Northeast Obstructionists: Natural Gas Pipelines at Risk (Keystone XL’s slippery slope)
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, Apr 8, 2015
Return of King Coal?
Japan’s New Coal Plants Threaten Emission Cuts, Group Says
By Chisaki Watanabe, Bloomberg, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Wind, Sun Free; Solar, Wind Power Expensive,
By Marita Noon, Breitbart, Apr 6, 2015
Wind Farm Industry Plans New Wave of Mega-Turbines,
By Donna Rachel Edmunds, Breitbart, Apr 3, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Perverse climate “morality”
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Apr 5, 2015
Dehydrated California Loses $2 Million To Save Nine Fish
By Stephen Moore, IBD, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Health, Energy, and Climate
RFK Jr. equates vaccinations to a holocaust – yes, he went there
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Apr 8, 2015
[SEPP Comment: An advisor to New York Governor Cuomo on hydraulic fracturing?]
“Pesticide linked to bee collapse may pose more risks”: Pure junk from the EU and the NY Times
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Apr 9, 2015
White House: Obama ‘greenest president’ ever
By Jordan Fabian, The Hill, Apr 7, 2015
Bloomberg Gives $30M to Shut 50% of Coal Plants by 2017 – ‘Thousands’ of Jobs Killed, Trade Group Says
By Penny Starr, CNS News.com, Apr 8, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]
Greenpeace India’s Registration Suspended, Bank Accounts Frozen
By Anirvan Ghosh, Huffington Post & Times of India, Apr 9, 2015 [H/t GWPF]
Greenpeace activists board Arctic-bound oil rig
Polar Pioneer drilling rig boarded 750 miles northwest of Hawaii by six activists in protest at Shell’s plans to drill for oil in Alaska waters
By Staff Writers, AP, The Guardian, UK, Greenpeace, Apr 7, 2015
Pay no attention to the man behind that apple
By Staff Writers, ACSH, Apr 6, 2015
Other Scientific News
Ancient human fossils from Laos reveal early diversity
By Staff Writers, Champaign IL (SPX), Apr 10, 2015
Early Modern Humans and Morphological Variation in Southeast Asia: Fossil Evidence from Tam Pa Ling, Laos
By Demeter, et al., Plos One, Apr 7, 2015
“However a rapid migration out of Africa into Southeast Asia by at least 60 ka [60,000 years ago] is supported by archaeological, paleogenetic and paleoanthropological data.”
[SEPP Comment: This was in the middle of the last Ice Age, demonstrating that humanity thrived during extreme climate change.]
NASA Selects Companies to Develop Super-Fast Deep Space Engine
By Staff Writers, Moscow (Sputnik) Apr 08, 2015
[SEPP Comment: A return to space exploration?]
Scientists Take Aim at Four Corners Methane Mystery
Press Release by Carol Rasmusssen, NASA, Apr 7, 2015 [H/t William Readdy]
Other News that May Be of Interest
The trouble with Google defining ‘truth’
Google thinks we’re only entitled to seeing Google’s “facts,” especially on climate change
By Ron Arnold, WUWT, Apr 9, 2015
High-speed rail versus driverless cars
By 2030 working while driving may be as easy as working while on the train
By Matt Ridley, The Rational Optimist, Apr 7, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Will driverless cars be common by the time the high-speed train, reducing the calculated benefits of the train?]
Colleges’ Obsession With ‘Sustainability’ Is Unsustainable
By Kerry Jackson, IBD, Apr 6, 2015
Climate Science And Energy Policy News From Germany Site ‘NoTricksZone’ Turns 5! Thank You, Readers!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 4, 2015
Flashback 1971: Scientists Predict Burning Coal Will Cause The Next Ice Age
By Michel Bastasch, Daily Caller, Apr 3, 2015
W.Va. board passes science standards allowing climate change debate
By Samuel Speciale, Charleston Daily Mail, West Virginia, Apr 9, 2015
[SEPP Comment: Anti-science?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE:
A hilarious new use for those old AOL discs – carbon sequestration
From the American Chemical Society
How unwanted CDs and DVDs could help cut carbon emissions
By Anthony Watts, WUWT, Apr 8, 2015
Anesthesia gases are warming the planet
By Emily DeMarco, Science Mag, Apr 7, 2015
Wet Basement? Blame Global Warming!
By John Henderaker, Power Line, Apr 6, 2015 [H/t Timothy Wise]