Eric Worrall writes: The Guardian has published an unusually interesting article about the danger to our civilisation, of a new Tambora scale volcanic eruption.
![Tambora_volc[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/tambora_volc1.jpg?quality=83)
According to Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL;
“In April 1815, the biggest known eruption of the historical period blew apart the Tambora volcano, on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, 12,000km from the UK. What happened next testifies to the enormous reach of the biggest volcanic blasts.
The Tambora volcano had shown no signs of life for 1,000 years; a single eruption in the previous five millennia provided the only indication that magma was still churning far beneath. It is very likely that the residents of the island considered the volcano extinct, and possible even that they did not know the impressive 4,300m (14,107ft) mountain – at the time, probably the highest in the East Indies – was a volcano at all. This all changed, however, with the rumblings and earthquakes of 1812, a full three years before the climactic blast. Over time, the seismic shocks were superseded by steam blasts and small ash explosions, engendering increasing trepidation on the island and signalling that something bigger might be imminent. It was. On 5 April 1815, a titanic explosion hurled a cloud of ash to a height of more than 30km.”
…
The consequences for the developed societies of the northern hemisphere were dire. A dry, sulphurous, fog draped itself across the landscape of eastern North America, causing temperatures to plunge and bringing unprecedented summer cold. In New York State, snow fell in June, while the bitter cold and killing frosts wiped out crops and halved the length of the growing season across much of the region. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe saw summer temperatures down by 2C compared to the average for the decade; the unseasonal cold accompanied by incessant rains and – into the following winter – by unusually powerful storms. Analysis of climate records reveals that 1816, the so-called “year without a summer”, was the second coldest in the northern hemisphere of the past six centuries.”
McGuire adds a minor obligatory genuflection towards climate change, this is after all The Guardian – but unusually for a Guardian story about the environment, the focus of the article is not on the alleged dangers of our industrial output of CO2. And what McGuire says is entirely pertinent – a Tambora style eruption could kill millions of people from starvation, as massive crop failures caused food prices to skyrocket. And Tambora is not the worst which could happen – The Toba eruption, which occurred 74,000 years ago, blackened the sky, causing massive die backs across the world – and may even have almost ended the human race. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#Genetic_bottleneck_theory
McGuire then goes on to list a few of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes – though interestingly the Indonesian volcano Merapi, an unstable giant slumbering adjacent to a city of 3 million people, doesn’t make his list. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Merapi
These colossal global catastrophes of the past, and the certainty that similar catastrophes will occur again in the future, maybe even in our lifetime, really puts the feeble temperature wobbles which are ascribed to humans into perspective.
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McGuire, huh?
Don’t you understand, what I’m trying to say?
And Can’t you feel the fear that I’m feeling today?
If the button is pushed, there’s no running away,
There’ll be no one to save with the world in a grave,
Take a look around you, boy, it’s bound to scare you, boy,
But you tell me over and over and over again my friend,
Ah, you don’t believe we’re on the eve of destruction.
That was Barry McGuire wasn’t it?
Barry McGuigan, surely?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barry_McGuigan refers
Of course, the diamond standard Wikipedia, that even I can comment on.
Auto
I have questions about that endangering human race issue. If Toba affected WORLDWIDE temperatures and drove the human race nearly to extinction, wouldn’t most OTHER mammals also have suffered equally? I don’t think there’s a record of a GENERAL mammal bottleneck 74,000 years ago.
But I thought that women and children were the worst affected by these kinds of disasters. Apparently men, dogs and cats get along much better.
So do I tick the box “accept volcanic eruption insurance” or do I take my chances? Celebrating Earth Day was so much easier. Except for the hangover.
Oh to be born without a conscience! Let me write volumes of scare stories based on how man is destroying his self. And may the royalties be never ending. The unwashed masses lined up to offer a penitence for the sin of existence. The beckoning call of my private jet and yacht stand ready, just in case, to whisk me away from impending disaster. A daring adventure awaits, perhaps to row across the ice free Artic ocean or measure the acidic oceans in some far away place like Tahiti. Oh the acclaim! The adulation! Perhaps a Nobel prize.
Or a share of a Nobel.
Or a contribution towards same.
Or writing something vaguely pertinent, in the same (or similar) decade
Note – I am a Nobel-winner, being (I did not say ‘happily and enthusiastically’) an EU Resident when the EU won a gong for – oh whatever it was that jumped out at the jury . . . . . . .
Mods – default mode, these days – is /Sarc . . .
Auto, still refining my Nobel acceptance speech
More excerpts from McGuire’s excellent science book on climate “Waking the Giant”…
“The initial Tambora eruption was so powerful that it caused the American’s to attack the Canadians in the war of 1812. Luckily (for Canada) several Newfoundlanders were visiting Toronto at the time and lent the military their seal clubs allowing Canada to beat back the Americans to their borders and beyond. Newfoundland would later join Canada in confederation in 1949 with Canada eventually stripping the Newfs of their seal clubs for fear of a similar fate on off-shore oil & gas revenue sharing.”
So it’s not just an accurate science book. It’s also an accurate history text.
Newfies create mayhem wherever they go clubbing.
The Treaty of Ghent was signed on 24th December 1814. Tambora errupted in April 1815.
Those Americans. Showing up early to a war…
It’s a little foretaste of the imminent end of the current interglacial and average drop in temp of -6C for 100,000 years.
Sinabung, a volcano near Lake Toba supervolcano has become active since late 2014 after a long dormant phase. If Lake Toba, goes then it would be devastating for South East Asia.
Why is it that there appears to be a prevalent thought in today’s world that a mega disaster like a supervolcano eruption or other similar disaster won’t or can’t happen in our lifetimes? It seems that many people (including some prominent scientists) do everything in their power to explain away this possibility. I think we are relaying too much on computer forecasts, and our acquired modern day knowledge, which may be giving us a false sense of security. The same applies to the possibility of another “Little Ice Age” that we may be soon entering.
In my humble opinion we should let history be our guide and pay more attention to what has happened in the past…even the recent past. Because those of us who forget the lessons of the past are doomed to repeat them.
Perhaps these three recent events should serve as a warning.
1. Mount Pinatubo June 15, 1991.
The volcano’s Plinian / Ultra-Plinian eruption on 15 June 1991 produced the second largest terrestrial eruption of the 20th century after the 1912 eruption of Novarupta in the Alaska Peninsula. The effects of the eruption were felt worldwide. It ejected roughly 10,000,000,000 tonnes (1.1×1010 short tons) or 10 km3 (2.4 cu mi) of magma, and 20,000,000 tonnes (22,000,000 short tons) SO
bringing vast quantities of minerals and metals to the surface environment. It injected more particulate into the stratosphere than any eruption since Krakatoa in 1883. Over the following months, the aerosols formed a global layer of sulfuric acid haze. Global temperatures dropped by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) in the years 1991-93,[7] and ozone depletion temporarily increased substantially. A reported 847 people were killed by the eruption, mostly by roofs collapsing under the weight of accumulated wet ash, a hazard amplified by the simultaneous arrival of Typhoon Yunya.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Pinatubo
2. Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami December 26, 2004.
The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake occurred at 00:58:53 UTC on 26 December with an epicentre off the west coast of Sumatra, Indonesia. The event is known by the scientific community as the Sumatra–Andaman earthquake.[6][7] The resulting tsunami was given various names, including the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, South Asian tsunami, Indonesian tsunami, the Christmas tsunami and the Boxing Day tsunami.
The undersea megathrust earthquake was caused when the Indian Plate was subducted by the Burma Plate and triggered a series of devastating tsunamis along the coasts of most landmasses bordering the Indian Ocean, killing 230,000 people in 14 countries, and inundating coastal communities with waves up to 30 metres (100 ft) high.[8] It was one of the deadliest natural disasters in recorded history. Indonesia was the hardest-hit country, followed by Sri Lanka, India, and Thailand.
With a magnitude of Mw 9.1–9.3, it is the third-largest earthquake ever recorded on a seismograph. The earthquake had the longest duration of faulting ever observed, between 8.3 and 10 minutes.[9] It caused the entire planet to vibrate as much as 1 centimetre (0.4 inches)[10] and triggered other earthquakes as far away as Alaska.[11] Its epicentre was between Simeulue and mainland Indonesia.[12] The plight of the affected people and countries prompted a worldwide humanitarian response. In all, the worldwide community donated more than $14 billion (2004 US$) in humanitarian aid.[13]
According to the U.S. Geological Survey a total of 227,898 people died (see table below for details).[1] Measured in lives lost, this is one of the ten worst earthquakes in recorded history, as well as the single worst tsunami in history. Indonesia was the worst affected area, with most death toll estimates at around 170,000.[56] However, another report by Siti Fadilah Supari, the Indonesian Minister of Health at the time, estimated the death total to be as high as 220,000 in Indonesia alone, giving a total of 280,000 casualties.[4]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_earthquake_and_tsunami
3. Tōhoku Earthquake and Tsunami March 11, 2011.
The 2011 earthquake off the Pacific coast of Tōhoku (東北地方太平洋沖地震 Tōhoku-chihō Taiheiyō Oki Jishin?) was a magnitude 9.0 (Mw) undersea megathrust earthquake off the coast of Japan that occurred at 14:46 JST (05:46 UTC) on Friday 11 March 2011,[2][3][8] with the epicentre approximately 70 kilometres (43 mi) east of the Oshika Peninsula of Tōhoku and the hypocenter at an underwater depth of approximately 30 km (19 mi).[2][9] The earthquake is also often referred to in Japan as the Great East Japan earthquake (東日本大震災 Higashi nihon daishinsai?)[10][11][12][fn 1] and also known as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake,[13] and the 3.11 earthquake.
It was the most powerful earthquake ever recorded to have hit Japan, and the fourth most powerful earthquake in the world since modern record-keeping began in 1900.[8][14][15] The earthquake triggered powerful tsunami waves that reached heights of up to 40.5 metres (133 ft) in Miyako in Tōhoku’s Iwate Prefecture,[16][17] and which, in the Sendai area, travelled up to 10 km (6 mi) inland.[18] The earthquake moved Honshu (the main island of Japan) 2.4 m (8 ft) east and shifted the Earth on its axis by estimates of between 10 cm (4 in) and 25 cm (10 in),[19][20][21] and generated sound waves detected by the low-orbiting GOCE satellite.[22]
On 10 March 2015, a Japanese National Police Agency report confirmed 15,891 deaths,[23] 6,152 injured,[24] and 2,584 people missing[25] across twenty prefectures, as well as 228,863 people living away from their home in either temporary housing or due to permanent relocation.[26] A February 10, 2014 agency report listed 127,290 buildings totally collapsed, with a further 272,788 buildings ‘half collapsed’, and another 747,989 buildings partially damaged.[27] The earthquake and tsunami also caused extensive and severe structural damage in north-eastern Japan, including heavy damage to roads and railways as well as fires in many areas, and a dam collapse.[18][28] Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan said, “In the 65 years after the end of World War II, this is the toughest and the most difficult crisis for Japan.”[29] Around 4.4 million households in northeastern Japan were left without electricity and 1.5 million without water.[30]
The tsunami caused nuclear accidents, primarily the level 7 meltdowns at three reactors in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant complex, and the associated evacuation zones affecting hundreds of thousands of residents.[31][32] Many electrical generators were taken down, and at least three nuclear reactors suffered explosions due to hydrogen gas that had built up within their outer containment buildings after cooling system failure resulting from the loss of electrical power. Residents within a 20 km (12 mi) radius of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant and a 10 km (6.2 mi) radius of the Fukushima Daini Nuclear Power Plant were evacuated. In addition, the U.S. recommended that its citizens evacuate everyone within up to 80 km (50 mi) of the plant.[33]
Early estimates placed insured losses from the earthquake alone at US$14.5 to $34.6 billion.[34] The Bank of Japan offered ¥15 trillion (US$183 billion) to the banking system on 14 March in an effort to normalize market conditions.[35] The World Bank’s estimated economic cost was US$235 billion, making it the costliest natural disaster in world history.[36][37]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_T%C5%8Dhoku_earthquake_and_tsunami
The take away from this entire post for me is that there are still so many mysteries about the earth that will confound the human mind for years to come. All fascinating stuff. Thanks to all for the links and contributions.
Book sales obviously flagging, so here’s the pitch. The stupid stuff starts at around 11:00.
Sorry Bill, you didn’t even mention the unattributed volcano in 1809 so I won’t be buying your London cabby style alarmist drivel. Shit happens, get used to it.
Reality is such a bitch, especially with those big SO2 injections into the strat.
So uninformed. Where to start? And people applauded him?
Only when he stopped talking.
http://www.amazon.com/Seven-Years-Save-Planet-Questions/dp/0297853368
Published 2008… 🙂
Maybe he’s putting in one final sales push before Doomsday.
Maybe he’s also trying to get it into the top 4 million on Amazon books:
Amazon Best Sellers Rank: #4,041,087 in Books
And when does the asteroid arrive?
No comet.
Apophis arrives in 2036. It is then that we are all doomed.
If some horrible climate change suddenly caused food production to drop it would raise the price of food higher than the price of gasoline. Result would be that the corn that is currently being converted into ethanol would be too expensive and would be eaten. And the various grains that are fed to animals would suddenly become expensive and probably too valuable to use that way. The result would be that available food would increase substantially just from the change in the price of food.
Our present wealth is part of the reason we’re more immune to starvation than people were in the Middle Ages. The other part is that our farmers can react to sudden changes a lot better than they could 500 years ago. So I wouldn’t worry too much about this.
Carl March 29, 2015 at 7:38 am
Yes.
So ethanol availability falls, fuel price rises, Crude price rises, fracking becomes economic, Saudi share of oil exports [never mind usage] tumbles.
So, I guess, Saudi Arabia is seeking bigger and better volcano plugs, and lubrication for them.
Putin is looking for bigger and better tanks.
Cameron [UK PM in case you missed him – balding cove with impressive jowls] seeks better arguments against the Lib Dems, who wouldn’t let a decadely review of constituency sizes, and borders, go ahead – apparently because the People had dissed their sky-is-falling ideas on changing the British Constitution radically [with no roll-back, no risk assessments, no explanation – just it’ll help us . . . . .]
We’ve six weeks or so to the most disruptive General Election since, probably, about the Reform Bill of 1832.
Expect more of the same from Brits.
Sorry.
The parties do not discuss Energy, Defence, the deficit – this year our [‘our’] Government will besides spending every penny of all the taxes, duties, charges, etc. they raise, also spend [having borrowed] well over a thousand pounds for every man woman and child in the UK.
And this borrowed sum will add about six per cent to the outstanding debt – which all has to be paid back.
And on which interest has to be paid.
Next financial year, 2015-2016, the UK will spend more on interest [at current near zero rates, even!] that we spend on all education.
Rant – well, not over, I’m sure; more interrupted, a bit.
Auto
The big question here after a major volcanic eruption is how are the warmists going to generate power that have installed solar panels on their roof? I guess they won’t be off the grid anymore…
goldminor
March 29, 2015 at 1:42 am
“Except that there may be a common denominator between then and now. Tambora erupted during the Dalton GM. The Laki Fires happened just prior to the onset of the Dalton….”
My friend, from the USGS: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
There are averages of 13,000 EQ per decade of 4-5 on the Richter Scale; 1300 EQ per decade at 5-6, 130 at 6-7 (big), 15 at 7-7.9 (huge) and ~1 >8 (colossal). Re volcanoes, the brief climate effect follows the volcano. With the magma down scores of km, it wouldn’t know the surface temp had gone up 0.07C per decade. This is the trouble with the whole CAGW storm in a teacup. The numbers are little. If we get a huge volcano in the next year or two, there will be those who write a paper on the long pause causing pent up warming that triggered the disaster. BTW, these are the babies (and earthquakes, fires, storms) that we should already have been reasonably prepared for a hundred years ago, not for a bogeyman in the future. Let’s see, food, water, shelter, clothing, medical and emergency energy supplies.
All of those New Madrid quakes were mainly colossal, with a few huge intermingled in. The volcanoes that did erupt during that period were large events. I think that the odds are raised for larger Earth events during Gleissberg and GM periods. It could be that this has to do with the depth of any given grand minimum with the exception that some grand minima last for two 30 year periods, the Maunder being one example and that unnamed event around 290 AD also at 60 years duration. The Dalton was 30+ years, and around 900 AD with the MWP in full swing it looks to me like there was a 15 year short cycle grand minimum. If the current warm period is to continue to some future point, then a 15 year grand minimum could be the type coming up.
I have watched the daily quake for 4+ years. The daily averages ebb and flow a bit over time. From where I first started watching quakes there was an increase in the daily average months after the Tohoku Quake, and that is also when I first noticed quakes striking in the middle of the US, a few around Hope Arkansas which was then followed by several quakes in Oklahoma. From that point forward the rate of quakes in Oklahoma has steadily increased, and as of the last year Kansas quakes are on the map mainly around Anthony Kansas. Today there have only been 5 Oklahoma quakes over the last 24 hours, but in days and months past the rate was up as high as 16/24hr. There are some days where there are more daily quakes in Oklahoma then in California. That gets my interest up.
Yes. But global warming enthusiasts aren’t interested in putting anything in perspective. They want the unwashed masses to be bereft of modern life, leaving the bounty of natural resources for themselves. Don’t believe it? Just look at how the loudest proponents of global warming live.
I immediately think of Al Gore, David Suzuki, and Prince Charles. All living quite well, while telling the poor masses to consume less.
It would be remiss to forget Leonardo DiCaprio
‘Geological catastrophes being induced by global warming’ seems to be the latest analogy to ‘picking up a turd by the clean end.’
“a Tambora style eruption could kill millions of people from starvation, as massive crop failures caused food prices to skyrocket.”
Really?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/04/15/missing-the-missing-summer/
If people are worried about millions dying from starvation, then worry about a total global collapse of the derivatives market.
Contrary to the trendy fantasy that barter is hip, depending on a “coincidence of wants” will not feed the world. Money is the prerequisite to specialization, division of labor, and multilateral trade. Money is what enables all of the marvels around you, from grapes in winter to this blog.
Money used to be something of positive value. Now, after the US fraudulently defaulted on its gold obligations in 1933 and again in 1971, the USDollar, along with all currencies around the world, are based on something of negative value: the irredeemable promises of spendthrift governments — unpayable perpetual debt.
That debt, in the form of government bonds, has since 1980 become a plaything in the hands of speculators. They have for 35 years driven up the price of those bonds (in direct contradiction of the Quantity Theory of Money). Few understand that the Great Depression was a bond bull market; the raging bull vacuumed money out of every crack and crevice in the economy, including once-sound businesses. Fewer still understand that we are in the Greatest Depression, one that is already four times longer, and far deeper than its predecessor.
So great are the gains to be had in the 35 year bond bull — gains siphoned off from producers and savers (you can only steal from those who have something to steal!) — that, despite the mountain of debt, there are not nearly enough bonds to go around to serve as chips in the casino. In response a 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivatives Tower of Babel has self-organized to create ever more casino chips (euphemistically described has hedges, or bond and interest rate insurance). Don’t fall for the lie: those derivatives do not stabilize the global monetary system, they destabilize it.
All it takes is one default in gold or silver at the COMEX or other commodity exchange, and in an instant all offers to sell the monetary metals will disappear. There will be plenty of bids, but zero asks. Gold will not be for sale at any price (in currencies). This can happen in flash.
At that moment, the entire 1.5 quadrillion dollar derivatives pyramid cannot fetch a single gram of gold (just as a 100 trillion Zimbabwe note could not fetch a single gram).
The world’s payment system is shattered.
Without a global payment system — without “money” — specialization, division of labor, and multilateral trade collapse.
The world’s economy flattens back to barter, the ultimate in deflation.
Welcome to the stone age.
Anyone who thinks that money (and value) is purely subjective, and that gold is “just a metal” is an abject fool.
* * * * *
GOLD FOR BREAD
so it’s not the volcano then?
I’ve been hearing this same thing since the 1950’s, when Eisenhower was President – ie. that our grandchildren are going to have to pay off this accumulated debt…I think that’s why it rings on deaf ears to the politicians.
Were we to have statespersons [M/F] of vision, such a scenario, which has persisted for two generations, may be segued, and at least rolled over.
I see very few statesfolk today.
We’ve just lost Lee Kwan Yew, a major player.
Ronnie Ray-gun and the Plutonium Blonde are both long out-of-office, and, crucially, deceased.
Cameron, Ms. Clinton, the Clown of Italy, even President Xi (though he may be China-beneficial pragmatic) do not excite. Nor the latest King of Saudi Arabia unhappily.
Maybe – hold on to your hats . . . . .
Auto
there have been, in effect, four monetary systems
-central banks, money as debt
-gold
– non-cornerable commodiities
-scrip systems
pls stop citing gold. if the world goes to that, somone would corrner the market and everything might be even worse. IMO, a false dualism
Of course we’re not ready for the next super volcanic eruption. Nor are we ready for the next asteroid strike. Or a super earthquake that destroys dozens of major cities. Or Putin losing what is left of his marbles and starting a nuclear war. Or Obama losing what few marbles he ever had and handing Iran the path to a nuclear bomb, sparking a Sunni/Shia nuclear arms race that ends who knows where.
We are not, and cannot be “prepared” for such eventualities, so we live our daily lives as best we can and deal with unexpected when/if it happens.
Navigate the shoals. That is what I tell my kids and will continue to tell them. Not that they listen.
Here’s what I find astonishing re: Big volcanos (and their aerosols SO2, etc) versus the climate change bedwetters.
In the 20 March 2015 Science mag, Dr Marcia McNutt, Editor-inChief, penned an editorial called “Ignorance is not an option.”
Here is the introductory paragraph and some highlights of her piece:
Some “back of the envelope” numbers from Pinatubo or a hypothetical Bardarbunga volcano SO2 release to the stratosphere clearly so how puny man is against these big volcanos, and even then their effects are so short-lived.
It seems to me it’s all about trying get more research money, as no matter how much is invested in studies, we will be woefully ignorant of the aerosol science.
She is not a McNutt for no reason.
I am completely ready for the Sweet Meteor of Death (SMoD), the Sweet Volcano of Death (SVoD), or the Sweet Not-Quite-Dead-But-Not-Really-Sleeping Giant Mollusk of Death (SNQDBNRSGMoD) (Ia Cthulhu!) . Bring it on, baby. Bring it on.
How about the Muddling Through As Per Usual Until Dying At A Ripe Old Age From God Knows What Death (MTAPUUDAAROAFGKWD)?
Ready for that?
Huh?
Huh?
Huh?
🙂
From VUKCEVIC
No Changing Climate does not trigger earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanoes.
If anything it is the other way around.
.
William Astley
March 29, 2015 at 2:00 am
Large volcanic eruptions correlate with deep solar magnetic cycle minimums. There is an increase in volcanic eruptions when the solar magnetic cycle slows down. The very large volcanic eruptions occur when the solar magnetic tries to restart. We have already experience the increase in volcanic activityand earthquake activity that is associated with the slowdown of the solar cycle (2010 for example there was a threefold increase in volcanic activity in Indonesia.)
MY REPLY- I agree with all of the above commentary . Many data sources show a good correlation between major volcanic activity and prolonged solar minimum periods.
(2010 for example there was a threefold increase in volcanic activity in Indonesia.)
So, the solar magnetic cycle knows how to pick out Indonesia and leave the rest of the planet out of it? Talk about cherry picking! Its a big planet, there’s some area on earth featuring higher than normal volcanic activity every single year!
l think more of a worry is if prolonged solar minimum periods are linked to a increased risk of “arctic blasts” pushing down across North America.
Quite right!
But when is correlation causation? Is there some third factor that is coincident with both “prolonged solar minimum periods” and “major volcanic activity”?
Yes! That would be the “Cannot do a damn thing about it” factor.
http://www.spaceandscience.net/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderfiles/ssrcresearchreport1-2010geophysicalevents.pdf
The data showing correlations between major volcanic activity and prolonged minimum solar periods of activity.
http://articles.adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-iarticle_query?bibcode=2003ESASP.535..393S&db_key=AST&page_ind=1&plate_select=NO&data_type=GIF&type=SCREEN_GIF&classic=YES
Another good study on solar/volcanic correlations