Eric Worrall writes: The Guardian has published an unusually interesting article about the danger to our civilisation, of a new Tambora scale volcanic eruption.
![Tambora_volc[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2015/03/tambora_volc1.jpg?quality=83)
According to Bill McGuire, professor emeritus of geophysical and climate hazards at UCL;
“In April 1815, the biggest known eruption of the historical period blew apart the Tambora volcano, on the Indonesian island of Sumbawa, 12,000km from the UK. What happened next testifies to the enormous reach of the biggest volcanic blasts.
The Tambora volcano had shown no signs of life for 1,000 years; a single eruption in the previous five millennia provided the only indication that magma was still churning far beneath. It is very likely that the residents of the island considered the volcano extinct, and possible even that they did not know the impressive 4,300m (14,107ft) mountain – at the time, probably the highest in the East Indies – was a volcano at all. This all changed, however, with the rumblings and earthquakes of 1812, a full three years before the climactic blast. Over time, the seismic shocks were superseded by steam blasts and small ash explosions, engendering increasing trepidation on the island and signalling that something bigger might be imminent. It was. On 5 April 1815, a titanic explosion hurled a cloud of ash to a height of more than 30km.”
…
The consequences for the developed societies of the northern hemisphere were dire. A dry, sulphurous, fog draped itself across the landscape of eastern North America, causing temperatures to plunge and bringing unprecedented summer cold. In New York State, snow fell in June, while the bitter cold and killing frosts wiped out crops and halved the length of the growing season across much of the region. On the other side of the Atlantic, Europe saw summer temperatures down by 2C compared to the average for the decade; the unseasonal cold accompanied by incessant rains and – into the following winter – by unusually powerful storms. Analysis of climate records reveals that 1816, the so-called “year without a summer”, was the second coldest in the northern hemisphere of the past six centuries.”
McGuire adds a minor obligatory genuflection towards climate change, this is after all The Guardian – but unusually for a Guardian story about the environment, the focus of the article is not on the alleged dangers of our industrial output of CO2. And what McGuire says is entirely pertinent – a Tambora style eruption could kill millions of people from starvation, as massive crop failures caused food prices to skyrocket. And Tambora is not the worst which could happen – The Toba eruption, which occurred 74,000 years ago, blackened the sky, causing massive die backs across the world – and may even have almost ended the human race. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#Genetic_bottleneck_theory
McGuire then goes on to list a few of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes – though interestingly the Indonesian volcano Merapi, an unstable giant slumbering adjacent to a city of 3 million people, doesn’t make his list. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mount_Merapi
These colossal global catastrophes of the past, and the certainty that similar catastrophes will occur again in the future, maybe even in our lifetime, really puts the feeble temperature wobbles which are ascribed to humans into perspective.
In reply to the caterwauling from the doom mongering twits at the Guardian” ‘Who is we?”
I am ready, me and mine will survive just fine as we have tools,skills and that strange ability to change our choices when the evidence forces us back to reality.
Regular readers of the Guardian? Writers of such pap? Probably not.
But most of these would be hard pressed to survive 3 days without electricity.
Kind of like the gullible buyers of CAGW, such are begging to be sold ever more cataclysmic stories and ever more absurd, expensive cures for their imaginary ailment.
For years I have been baffled by the wilful idiocy of “educated persons”, I have chosen not to take advantage of such defenceless consumers .
But, these persons have enabled a 30 year assault upon everything I value.
Such that I now suspect civilization may fall.
Without their extreme gullibility none of the Gang Green Extortion would have been possible.
Therefore not allowing the gullible to suffer the consequences of their own choices has been a stupid decision on my part.
I apologize.
In my chosen trade I can rightly claim the ability to fix nearly anything given enough time, but I cannot fix stupid.
Peace of mind has come from learning not to try.
But I do resent stupid persons trying to control my life.
I have been assured that a “Good Education” is expensive.
The University of Hard Knocks concurs.
Therefore it seems ones civic duty is to “educate” the gullible.
The survival of civilization as we know it may depend upon such action.
Join the cause..bankrupt the gullible…build a nest egg…save civilization.
Sarcasm?
Damned if I know anymore.
John,
You echo the sentiments and frustrations of many of us. The skill sets represented by the folks who visit WUWT are capable of ‘fixing’ damn near any structure, machine, and service on the planet. But we don’t know how to ‘fix stupid’ and we lack the calculated avarice to manipulate their stupidity to our advantage. Our opposition has no such impairment.
But I do resent stupid persons trying to control my life.
A statement of pure resonance, for all but the trolls that visit here.
You are in good company, friend!
Mac
The same climate models that exaggerate the sensitivity of global temperature to the positive radiative forcing of carbon dioxide by a factor of three also exaggerate the sensitivity of global temperature to the negative radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols by a factor of three. While I would not want to minimize the human cost of a repeat of Tambora’s devastating eruption, it should be said that the climate consequences are likely overestimated by a wide margin.
“Are we ready for the next volcanic catastrophe?”
When it comes, it will come – whether we’re ready or not.
joelobryan quotes Dr Marcia McNutt who organised and moderated the AAAS Annual Meeting 2015, Climate Intervention and Geoengineering: Albedo Modification Panel discussion.
ABC Australia’s Science Show is still giving it airplay. my impression has long been that all the talk about geoengineerng is meant to scare the public into accepting the CAGW policy agenda whole, no questions asked:
AUDIO: 28 March: ABC Science Show: Geoengineering – a stimulus for change, an excuse to continue, or even possible?
If geoengineering ever comes to pass, what will be the message? That change is urgent? …
A panel of speakers at this year’s American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting in San Jose tossed around a few of the challenges…
Guests include Alan Robock, Rutgers University, New Jersey USA
http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/scienceshow/geoengineering-e28093-a-stimulus-for-change2c-an-excuse-to-/6353264
(8 mins in: Alan Robock, led by ABC Host Robyn Williams to repeat what he said at the AAAS meeting about his interractions with the public on geoengineering:
Robock: if i tell people i’m working on geoengineering, they say what’s that. most people don’t even know what it is. when i explain it, they say wow, you are thinking about doing something that crazy?…maybe global warming really is a problem, maybe i should consider global warming more seriously. and there’s been academic research showing that is the reaction of people. if they see you are actually planning or thinking about these geoengineering responses, there must be a real problem.
ABC Host Robyn Williams: Yes indeed.)
for once, because CAGW is concerned, UK Independent is concerned that the CIA is concerned!!!
15 Feb: UK Independent: Steve Connor: CIA: Foreign powers may develop ability to manipulate the global climate undetected
Officials are worried foreign countries may develop geoengineering – the deliberate manipulation of the global climate
Consultants working for the Central Intelligence Agency have asked Professor Alan Robock of Rutgers University in New Jersey whether it would be possible for another nation to meddle with the climate without being discovered, he said.
“I got a phone call from two men who said we work as consultants for the CIA and we’d like to know if some other country was controlling our climate would we know about it,” Professor Robock said…
Professor Robock is an expert in geoengineering – the deliberate manipulation of the global climate – and specialises in how large volcanic eruptions cause global cooling by reflecting sunlight back into space, increasing the Earth’s reflectivity, or albedo.
Geoengineering has been the focus of two major studies, one by the Royal Society in Britain and one by the US National Academy of Sciences, ***which was part-funded by the American intelligence agencies. Both reports concluded that albedo modification poses considerable risks but that geoengineering warrants more research…
“I work on the area of stratospheric aerosols to emulate a volcanic eruption and I’ve identified five potential benefits of that and 26 potential risks,” Professor Robock told the American Association for the Advancement of Science in San Jose. “We know the answer to global warming is adaptation and mitigation. We’d rather not have to work on this.”…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/media/cia-foreign-powers-may-develop-ability-to-manipulate-the-global-climate-undetected-10047669.html#
one comment, from what seems to be a typical Independent reader, MICAH C: “I’m much more concerned about the CIA manipulating weather than I am any ‘foreign powers.’ As far as I can tell, the CIA is the only group that currently has that capability, and I also happen to believe they’re guilty of putting it to use.”
Watch for the ability for regional weather manipulation.
=========
I think it’s safe to say there are few people ready to be baked, broiled, asphyxiated, or drowned.
I’m sick of the hype about Tambora and “the year without a summer”. Tambora was the largest volcano in recorded history and had a major impact of GLOBAL climate. Despite Willis and “spot the volcano”, MGST must have been at least 1 degC lower than usual for a year or two. However, there is nothing unusual about a month in which any ONE area is 2-3 degC different from average, so most people didn’t notice the cooling from Tambora.
The “year without a summer” was a remarkable regional cold spell – unforced variability – that happened to strike New England 15 months after Tambora, reducing mean monthly temperatures by at least 3 degC LOCALLY, in addition to the volcanic global cooling. Based on Pinatubo, we might expect that maximum cooling from the eruption occurred in during the winter of 1815-1816, not the following summer. There is nothing unprecedented about snow in late spring in northern New England. 34 inches of snow fell on Whiteface Mountain, NY on Memorial Day weekend in 2013 – without the assistance of a volcano, the Dalton minimum, or the LIA and despite the opposition of 0.8 degC of global warming in the twentieth century. Tambora therefore played only a modest role in New Englands usual weather in 1816.
The year without a summer also effected Europe also, but heavy rain, not remarkable cold, was the major problem. Since heavy rains are not normally associated with volcanic eruptions, the wet summer in Europe of 1816 probably was unforced variability.
Whatever caused the year without a summer, it made an impression on New England. While snow in May is fairly rare (except for Mt Washington, which has seen snow in every month), snow doesn’t happen in June/July/August. My father thought he saw some frost one cold early July morning in a depression next to an interstate, that’s possible with some really impressively dry air and radiational cooling – which we had that day. No farm crops were lost.
In 1816, the corn crop was killed three times by frost, once in each of June, July, and August. That has never happened before or since. From the description of the weather, which included plenty of warm weather, I conclude that the storm track shifted southward in 1816, and that can readily explain the effects being limited to a small range of latitudes. See http://wermenh.com/1816.html (Willis dismissed it in comments to his post on global effects.)
You note:
The planting guidelines in NH say that the danger of frost extends through May. Here in the low lands near Concord NH, the weather around then was:
I fully agree we can get snow and freezing weather in May. I think it was May 5th, 1977 that brought a devastating snow to parts of Massachusetts where deciduous leaves had emerged and caught more snow than the limbs could support.
The summer months were the important ones in 1816. If Dad did see frost that July morning, then all it takes is a modest, or a bit more than modest, effect to produce a very unusual farming season.
I think it would be safe to say that civilization in general will never “be ready” for a global catastrophe.
There were 19 great (cat 8 and above) earthquakes between 1950 and 2002 and 19 great earthquakes between 2003 and today. As these earthquakes are generally on or very close to tectonic plate boundaries, this suggests that the tectonic plates are moving slightly more at present than they were during the second half of the 20th Century. The increased incidence of great earthquakes suggests that it is quite likely that there will be an increased incidence of explosive volcanic activity over the next few decades.
Brent Walker March 29, 2015 at 5:44 pm says:
Citation?
Thanks,
w.
I counted 15 M8+ earthquakes from 2003 to the present, data from here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_21st-century_earthquakes, the last one was 4/1/14.
“Great” earthquakes, M8+, occur on average every 1.5 years according to this source: http://www.boqueteweather.com/pdf_files/freq_earthquakes.pdf
But the USGS says about once every 1 year, http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
I counted 15 up through 2012 from the USGS table, then, adding the 3 more since 2012, gets us 18. Got one missing…
Thanks for mentioning that Brent. Where are you hiding that last earthquake?
The other sources I looked at had different numbers too, so it’s a good idea to double and triple cross check such data sources.
Nice to see the Grauniad maintaining its usual lack of credibility.
Are we ready for the next volcanic catastrophe? No. We can’t stop it. We can get out of the way. But large eruptions can have regional devastation and global climate effect. There is nowhere to hide. Blast the volcano with atomic bombs before it erupts so the eruption will not be explosive. High pressure gases will not build up underneath once the cap rocks are destroyed. Magma flow and SO2 emission will still be a problem. Hopefully the little ice age will not last long.
don’t think so…
Krakatoa = Baby Bro
Tambora = Big Bro
Toba = Big Daddy
Nobody wake big daddy! Let sleeping giants lie.
As Eric Worrall says, this is an unusually interesting article in the Guardian. Here is a comment I posted under it. To my surprise, it wasn’t deleted:
‘On the same page as this genuine article, based on scientific principles, about a known threat, is a link to another page entitled “The argument for divesting from fossil fuels is becoming overwhelming”. From the sublime to the ridiculous.’
The Toba eruption probably killed off our human cousins in south east Asia and most of East Asia leaving the place open for re-occupation by modern humans.
And if we are looking for a volcanic catastrophe Yellowstone is a leading candidate.
It last went off 640,000 years ago
It will erupt again causing major destruction in North America [wind direction at the time will have a bearing on events] and significantly affect weather.
But when will it erupt….in 10 years, 100 years, 1000 years, 1 million years ?
We know what causes eruptions in very general terms but can’t predict them except at the very last gasp.
As J. Buffet enquires……. “Where you going to go when the volcano blows?”
“…….,Analysis of climate records reveals that 1816, the so-called “year without a summer”, was the second coldest in the northern hemisphere of the past six centuries……..”
So, what CAUSED the coldest?? ( which occured BEFORE the volcanic eruption !!!!)
A volcanic eruption of this magnitude probably produced 100 years worth of present-day-HUMAN-generated production rates of CO2 . In that CO2 hangs around in the atmosphere for many , many years, how is it that subsequent to the volcanic particulate matter settling out of the atmosphere – after about 1 to 3 years- the climate did NOT WARM ??? After all, with all that ” excess” CO2 hanging around, it MUST have caused massive global warming.
What happened to the global warming??
I predict once the solar minimum becomes more established geological activity will be on the rise as it was during the 2008-2011 solar lull. That period of time much more active then the past few years, especially this past year.
I said this BEFORE it has taken place on Dr. Spencer’s web-site.
Salvatore Del Prete says:
March 18, 2015 at 1:37 PM
I saw the 6.2 quake. Total up to two earthquakes 6.0 or greater since the geomagnetic event. Never came across the 6.6 quake.
It will be interesting to compare the total number of magnitude 5.0 earthquakes or better a few weeks leading up to the geomagnetic storm versus a few weeks since the storm and see if an increase has taken place.
For my money I think the number of earthquakes magnitude 5.0 or better will be greater from Mar.17 -Mar.31 then they were from Mar.03-Mar.17.
Also volcanic activity has to be watched.
My reasoning is the tectonic plates are unstable to begin with so any added force no matter how slight might be just enough to give them that little added instability which pushes them over the edge.
Ideally I think the sun needs to be in the depths of a prolonged solar minimum (AP index 5.0 or less) with then a geomagnetic storm of K8 magnitude or better(AP index spike over 250) taking place in order to realize the full potential effects.
The AP index has been well above the 5.0 average when this recent event (k8 geomagnetic storm) took place..
Here is the data Mar. 03- Mar. 17, prior to the K8 event versus Mar. 17 – Mar . 31, (note one more day left in this period of time to make the difference even more telling) after the K8 event took place..
Mar. 17- Mar 17 – 46 earthquakes took place with a magnitude of 5.0 or higher.
Mar. 17 – Mar 31 – Note it is only Mar 30 , as of now 62 earthquakes have taken place thus far with a magnitude of 5.0 or higher. This is over a 30% increase over the period prior to the geomagnetic storm.
Mar.03 – Mar 17 – 3 earthquakes took place with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher. No earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher.
Mar.03- Mar. 31 – Note it is only Mar.30 — 8 earthquakes have taken place with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher. This is over a 100% increase over the period prior to the geomagnetic storm, with one earthquake having a magnitude of 7.0 or higher.
I would have to say this data lends support to what I have been suggesting ,especially when consideration is taken into account that the ideal conditions I have called for, that being a very low AP index 5.0 or lower for many months with a sudden spike of 250 or greater were not fully realized.
What matters is I said this BEFORE it happened not after the fact.
This gives me that much more confidence that when prolonged solar minimum conditions become fully established later this decade and a geomagnetic event of this magnitude takes place, that even greater geological activity might be the result.
THIS IS WITH THE CORRECTIONS FOR THE DATES. CARELESS ME!
Ideally I think the sun needs to be in the depths of a prolonged solar minimum (AP index 5.0 or less) with then a geomagnetic storm of K8 magnitude or better(AP index spike over 250) taking place in order to realize the full potential effects.
The AP index has been well above the 5.0 average when this recent event (k8 geomagnetic storm) took place..
Here is the data Mar. 03- Mar. 17, prior to the K8 event versus Mar. 17 – Mar . 31, (note one more day left in this period of time to make the difference even more telling) after the K8 event took place..
Mar. 03- Mar 17 – 46 earthquakes took place with a magnitude of 5.0 or higher.
Mar. 17 – Mar 31 – Note it is only Mar 30 , as of now 62 earthquakes have taken place thus far with a magnitude of 5.0 or higher. This is over a 30% increase over the period prior to the geomagnetic storm.
Mar.03 – Mar 17 – 3 earthquakes took place with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher. No earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher.
Mar.17- Mar. 31 – Note it is only Mar.30 — 8 earthquakes have taken place with a magnitude of 6.0 or higher. This is over a 100% increase over the period prior to the geomagnetic storm, with one earthquake having a magnitude of 7.0 or higher.
I would have to say this data lends support to what I have been suggesting ,especially when consideration is taken into account that the ideal conditions I have called for, that being a very low AP index 5.0 or lower for many months with a sudden spike of 250 or greater were not fully realized.
The first short term solar correlation that I made was in 2010, with larger EQ’s occurring when there were was an Earth facing coronal hole. Without that observation there would be no suspicious0bservers youtube channel, but I dumped the idea because the proposed mechanism was very unlikely, and the stats on a larger sample of events wasn’t that good. But on further inspection I found a more consistent correlation, of larger EQ’s occurring after several days of declining (and less spiky) solar wind speed, and/or in the first day or two following several days of declining speeds. And curiously any larger EQ’s occurring while the SW wind remains higher seem to be be predominately in ocean floor locations:
http://snag.gy/0mWRI.jpg
In 2008 I spotted a pattern of much colder north hemisphere winter episodes preceding larger volcanic eruptions. For some years I have had a forecast out for a very long cold start to 2017, and I suspect that there may be strong eruptive activity following in late summer and autumn 2017. The analogue year that I use for the seasonal forecast, 1838, had larger eruptions in at least Guatemala, Cameroon, Indonesia, and Iceland. See how that works out.
The mechanism that might lead to colder northern hemisphere winters causing an increase in world wide volcanic activity is puzzling.
However it’s a prediction that can be tested.
What were the “larger ” eruptions in Indonesia in 1838-39?
This is yet another sad example of publishers pimping out academics, with their bottom line foremost in mind.
So, are there more volcanic eruptions during winter than summer?
http://www.solen.info/solar/history/hist1960.html
This shows prior to the largest earthquake on record 9.5 magnitude in Chile, May 22, 1960 there were 3 spikes of AP index activity.
Spike one= 240 end of Mar
Spike two= 170 end of Apr.
Spike three= 130 May 09 or so.
See how this situation is along the same lines as today.
Before big volcanic eruptions, several smaller precede (not well recorded), rising clouding-cooling. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century
Part one
Here is my thinking. I think at times of prolonged solar minimums Muons a by product of galactic cosmic rays enter the earth’s crust and penetrate it adding a little extra instability to the already unstable plates. This sets the stage for when an intense active burst of activity from the sun causes a geomagnetic storm here on earth to create havoc with the earth’s magnetic field which compounds the instability on the plates, the increase in Muons created when solar activity was quiet giving a double whammy of instability to the plates which makes them more likely to be pushed over the edge ,the result more geological activity.
The source for the geomagnetic storm from the sun does not matter, it could be coronal holes, a solar flair or a filament explosion.
Part 2
I can see a tie in with more geological activity near solar maximum due to extreme solar events taking place around that time. Not as great however as around very quiet prolonged solar minimum conditions, with a severe solar event taking place within the prolonged solar minimum period.
I think five factors come into play to determine if an increase in geological activity is going to follow a major solar event. I think the five factors are the relative strength of the earth’s magnetic field, the overall level of solar activity in general, the geomagnetic storm strength itself , the state of instability of the plates at that point in time ,and most IMPORTANT the strength in the geomagnetic storm in relation to the level of solar activity in general.
I think the greater the spread is between the average AP index and the AP index during the geomagnetic storm the greater the chances will be for major geological activity to follow.
This is not a black and white situation unfortunately. It does not work like clockwork. This is my best take ,I do not know for certain if this is correct but it seems to be logical in many respects.
I will leave with this, it is never black and white when it comes to climate issues. There always seems to be a counter argument or take to what ever my be presented.