When I got this press release from NOAA a few minutes ago, the first thing I did was check the NOAA NESDIS sea surface temperature map for the tell-tale El Niño pattern signature, because NOAA didn’t include any SST graphic in the press release. I sure don’t see an El Niño pattern in today’s SST product.
Now, compare today’s product to the one from August 27th, 2009, when there actually was an El Niño, something they reference in the press release.
Source: http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2009/anomnight.8.27.2009.gif
Seems like a reach to me, especially when the report referenced in the PR says:
Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Niño conditions.
Update: Confusion anyone? AP’s Seth Borenstein got this quote from the NOAA staffer quoted in the PR and tweeted it:
@afreedma Halpert acknowledges: "What we've learned from this event is that our definition is very confusing and we need to work on it."
— @borenbears (@borenbears) March 5, 2015
Update2: It seems there is a decision flowchart for calling an El Niño, I wonder if they followed it this time?
Source: http://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/decembers-enso-update-close-no-cigar
Here’s the PR:
NOAA: Elusive El Niño arrives
Forecasters predict it will stay weak, have little influence on weather
and climate
Contact
Maureen O’Leary, maureen.oleary@noaa.gov, 202-578-5257
March 5, 2015
The long-anticipated El Niño has finally arrived, according to forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In their updated monthly outlook released today, forecasters issued an El Niño Advisory to declare the arrival of the ocean-atmospheric phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.
Due to the weak strength of the El Niño, widespread or significant global weather pattern impacts are not anticipated. However, certain impacts often associated with El Niño may appear this spring in parts of the Northern Hemisphere, such as wetter-than-normal conditions along the U.S. Gulf Coast.
“Based on the persistent observations of above-average sea surface temperatures across the western and central equatorial Pacific Ocean and consistent pattern of sea level pressure, we can now say that El Niño is here,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, and ENSO forecaster. “Many climate prediction models show this weak El Niño continuing into summer.”
Forecasters say it is likely (50 to 60 percent chance) that El Niño conditions will continue through the summer.
The last El Niño, in 2009-2010, was a moderate to strong event. Other recent El Niño’s took place from 2002-2003 (moderate), 2004-2005 (weak), 2006-2007 (weak to moderate). The last very strong El Nino was 1997-1998 and was known for providing heavy rainfall in the West, especially California. As for this year, “this El Nino is likely too late and too weak to provide much relief for drought-stricken California,” added Halpert.
NOAA scientists will continue to monitor the situation and will issue its next monthly update on April 9.
NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and our other social media channels. Visit our news release archive.
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The traditional definition of El Niño is 5 seasons of the Niño-3.4 index at or above +0.5. So far, it has only been 4 seasons: +0.5, +0.7, +0.7 and +0.6. NOAA appears to be jumping the gun a bit.
If indeed, this is an El Niño, then it will be the latest arriving and weakest on record. NOAA’s records go back to 1950:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml
Which was about the start of the warm PDO which was replaced by the current cold PDO around 2005 – 2010
And they wonder why their models tuned for a warm PDO do not work,
The PDO is neither warm or cold, but refers to the location of the warm cold in the n pacific. BTW, the PDO recently turned what you call warm again. Warm eastern pacific.
The biggest reason for the difference between this event and previous ones has been the lack of atmospheric coupling. All we’ve had is the waves of warm water upwelling in the East Pacific but no major change in the trade winds to let the warm surface water in the West Pacific slosh back into the Nino 3, 4 regions. As one can see in the following charts there have been a few warm waves and a new one is just starting to up well up as we speak. However, only the first one was strong and until we get some kind of atmospheric coupling, I don’t see this becoming a strong event.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/tlon_heat.gif
What? Where? 30 day SOI went positive (read: POSITIVE SOI) on March 2nd. bwahwhathuh?
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
According to NOAA’s MEI Index, we have has El Nino since last April!
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html
Something is wrong here. As mentioned above in comments, previous definition is 5 consecutive months of 3-month ONI averages of 0.5 or higher. So far we have 3, perhaps 4 since it is the beginning of March and NOAA may have ONI for DJF now. We have ASO=0.2, SON=0.5, OND=0.7, NDJ=0.7, DJF=?? (>0.5?). But if so this is still only 4. Perhaps DJF went up, and so they are assuming JFM will also be >0.5?
But they should wait until they actually have the data until they call it. This smacks of activism, not science.
In the NOAA ENSO diagnostic discussion linked above, ONI for DJF=0.6. If I were in NOAA, I would be concerned that ONI for JFM will fall to 0.4 (since it is now dropping), and I would wait. But I’m not a climate activist. So I guess I know what to think of think of these NOAA people. Ever heard of Jonathan Gruber?
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC.
By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons.
These thresholds have exceeded for a period of only 4 consecutive overlapping 3-month seasons. The ONI Index being SON 0.5, OND 0.7, NDJ 0.7 & last DJF 0.6 . If JFM =>0.5 then an El Nino can be declared, so we have one more month to monitor before an El Nino can be confirmed or there is a washout !
They know there is an El Nino out there somewhere and it’s a travesty that they can’t find it.
Reblogged this on Norah4you's Weblog and commented:
As I written in my comment below:
El Niño????
Where and when?
I guess: The answer my friend, is blowing in the wind…..
Re the Higgs – they had to find it. After all, the alternative was to tell Europe’s politicians they had just spent billions on the promise of spectacular results and actually “sorry, we haven’t found anything”. Non-starter really. Anyway, think of the positive aspects – the Swiss now have the world’s most spectacular 20 mile diameter microwave oven on their doorstep, with no one living more than a few minutes drive away of being able to warm up a tasty pop tart or pasta. Always a bright side if you look for it.
The Swiss can always do with a boost to their cooking skills….
I am asking a question here. This project to find this singular “Higgs/Boson” particle in this massive “machine” at CERN ( and I do not doubt the Russians and Chinese have similar projects and I remember one was cancelled in Canada about 10-15 years ago) will lead to what? Is there a place I can find out .other than the PR btw, what is being sought after?. For a lay person the amount of money spend is staggering. Is there a practical solution at the end? such as fusion?, an energy force to be used in space? or whatever. This (great) site many times leads me to answers and I realize this is away from Climate but if someone can point me? Thanks beforehand!
Well, here’s a flow chart:
[Start Here] Are many states in the midst of one of the coldest periods in north America on record? [If yes, proceed to next] Has Antarctic ice (despite our assurances) exceeded all warmist predictions? [If yes, proceed to next] Has snow accumulation across the U.S. exceeded all our wildest denials, snarling traffic, and forcing us to redefine “warming”? [If yes, cover one eye and proceed to next] Do we at NOAA look like ignorant, elitist buffoons with an agenda? [If still yes, cover both eyes and put your feet over your ears, then proceed to next] Haven’t we told you so about every winter and spring? [Still yes? Cover both eyes, both ears, and your mouth, then curl your tail in a manner suitable to protect your hindquarters and proceed to the coup de grace] Yep, that little monster’s a-comin’ and it’s called… “Summer”.
You head it here.
lol. 🙂
I call your attention to a recently published paper.
The Sun is the climate pacemaker I. Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures
by D. H. Douglass and R. S. Knox [Physics Letters A. Vol 379 p823-829 (2015)]
Abstract
Equatorial Pacific Ocean temperature time series data contain segments showing both a phase-locked annual signal and a phase-locked signal of period two years or three years, both locked to the annual solar cycle. Three such segments are observed between 1990 and 2014. It is asserted that these are caused by a solar forcing at a frequency of 1.0 cycle/yr. These periodic features are also found in global climate data (following paper). The analysis makes use of a twelve-month filter that cleanly separates seasonal effects from data. This is found to be significant for understanding the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon.
In this paper El Ninos are identified with the maxima of segments showing phase-locked oscillation, which can have periods that are exactly 2-years or 3-years.
In the conclusions we state:
“The climate system is presently (June 2014) in a phase-locked state of periodicity 3 years. This state, which began in 2008, contains a maximum (El Niño) at about 2010 followed by a minimum (La Niña) followed by a maximum (weak El Niño at about 2013). If the climate system remains in this phase-locked state, the next maximum will not occur until about 2016 – i.e., no El Niño before that date. On the other hand, if a maximum occurs before then, it will signal the end of the phase-locked segment (and therefore a climate shift).”
I just checked the latest SST3.4 data (though Feb 2015). Analysis of this updated data set indicates that the climate system is still phase-locked in a 3-year state with the next maximum (El Nino) predicted to occur at about Dec 2015/Jan 2016).
David Douglass
Department of Physics and Astronomy
University of Rochester
Rochester, New York
Simple enough to confirm or falsify. Ask the Peruvian anchovy fishermen. They know if there is an El Nino before anyone else by their catch.
Rah – according to undercurrent news Peruvian anchovy stocks are set to fully recovered. This means renewed upwelling bringing nutrients to the surface, as evidenced by the strong juvenile year class:
http://www.undercurrentnews.com/2015/03/04/peru-to-set-southern-anchovy-biomass-as-fishing-season-could-be-moved-forward/
For a while I have been predicting a significant La Niña this year. So far this is not happening due to a continued – but weakening – series of Kelvin waves trying to keep the El Nino show on the road. When these finally sputter out we could still have a La Niña in the first half of this year.
BTW it would be nice to have the spot price of prime fish meal added to the WUWT Ocean and/or ENSO data pages.
lol, here ya go, Phlogiston! 🙂
http://research.investors.com/quotes/nyse-omega-protein-corp-ome.htm
@David Douglass
Above in your comment concerning your paper you say “…both locked to the annual solar cycle.” But there is no “annual solar cycle”. The revolution of the earth about the sun is a terrestrial cycle. So it’s not the sun. It’s the revolution of the earth about the sun.
I’m not saying there isn’t such a phase locked phenomena, just that it shouldn’t be claimed that the sun is causing it.
Coaldust
Hi. Everbody knows that in a coordinate system with the Sun at the origin the Earth goes around the Sun in an ellipse. However, the climate system of the Earth is best described with the Earth at the origin. As we point out in our paper in section 3.2, in this coordinate system, the Earth experiences a sinusoidal Solar Irradiance of amplitude 11.3 W/m2 at 1.0 cycles/year.
David Douglass
“Update2: It seems there is a decision flowchart for calling an El Niño, I wonder if they followed it this time?”
If it doesn’t fit you must acquit!
While there IS a bit of a trade wind anomaly west of about 170W (from about 170W to about 160E), the eastern half trades are nominal to stronger than usual. Once you get west of 160E it goes close to nominal again. This is still looking like a protracted “La Nada” to me or maybe some kind of weird modiki modiki. Based on recent behavior, my gut tells me this is a short term local trade wind anomaly. We’ve seen this a couple of times over the past 12 to 18 months. Both times people called for a nino, both times it went bust.
So — we have stronger than normal trades in the eastern Pacific, slack trades in the mid-western Pacific and nominal trades in the far western Pacific. You can’t have a real EN Nino without slack trades and the western Pacific warm pool is empty — the water there is cool. So this isn’t any Nino event I have ever seen and doesn’t look likely to produce one in my opinion.
@ur momisugly cross,”So — we have stronger than normal trades in the eastern Pacific, slack trades in the mid-western Pacific and nominal trades in the far western Pacific. You can’t have a real EN Nino without slack trades and the western Pacific warm pool is empty — the water there is cool. So this isn’t any Nino event I have ever seen and doesn’t look likely to produce one in my opinion”
That is where I get really confused. How and where and when do all these air flows equalize? To me you cannot have a weak flow in the Western Pacific coupled with a strong one in the Eastern Pacific otherwise would it not leave “a vacuum”? Air has to come from somewhere. Does it flow in from the tropics (warmer) or from the (colder) air mass in the Northern Pacific to fill these voids? And how and by what are these two influenced?
To me ??? Interesting but a Chaos.
El pendejito jajajaj
On the flowchart, the second decision box labeled, “[Do you] think the Niño-3.4 SST will stay >=0.5C for the next several seasons.” is subjective. If NOAA can call an El Niño based on “what they think”, then any official El Niño is meaningless. It should be based on measurements. If the Niño-3.4 SST drops below 0.5 for the JFM average, will they call back the El Niño? Because if it does, they should.
Down Under we should call it the ‘Wenju Cai’ factor:
http://econews.com.au/news-to-sustain-our-world/csiro-ocean-data-points-to-strong-el-nino/
http://www.climatenewsnetwork.net/warming-will-double-extreme-el-ninos/
this guy would stagger out of Las Vegas with not a stitch on him….
It must be nice to be able to have a range of verifying sources to choose from to substantiate your message.
In the commercial world, having numerous sets of books to produce to the authorities would get you a gaol sentence. In the climate world, this is apparently acceptable.
It looks like the missing heat hiding in the oceans is hiding pretty well….
El Ninja?
Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I can’t help but thinking that they wanted to wait on any official proclamation of an El Nino until after they proclaimed 2014 as the hottest year ever. That way none of those pesky deniers could blame 2014 on an El Nino. And just like Ashby Manson, it feels to me like a mild El Nino weather-wise here in Southern California: there’s been rain every month since November, a bunch of rain in December (mild version of 2010 El Nino) and then late season winter storms in February and March (mild version of 1998 El Nino).
It’s a Justin El Nino, the one have just-in-case it really is one, is really going to be one or could be an eensy teensy one … or your keyboard slipped and said it was one.
Not according to the BoM, Australia. But then again, they use an 0.8 variation for neutral, not an 0.5.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=SOI
NOAA’s gone nuts!
Cold water all along the equator in the
Eastern Pacific is developing “La Nina”.