By Michael Bastasch, The Daily Caller, 2 March 2015
Climate models can be good tools for predicting future sea ice levels — unless, of course, they are completely wrong. In the case of Antarctica, the climate models were dead wrong, according to a new study by Chinese scientists published in the journal Cryosphere.
The study found that most climate models predicted Antarctic sea ice coverage would shrink as the world warmed and greenhouse gas levels increased.
The opposite happened. Most climate models analyzed in the study predicted Antarctica would shrink between 1979 and 2005, but instead south pole sea ice levels increased during that time. Going a step further, sea ice levels have only increased since 2006, hitting all-time highs for sea ice coverage in September of last year.
“For the Antarctic, the main problem of the [climate] models is their inability to reproduce the observed slight increase of sea ice extent,” researchers wrote in their study.
“Both satellite-observed Antarctic [sea ice extent] and [satellite measured] Antarctic [sea ice volume] show[s] increasing trends over the period of 1979–2005, but [climate models’] Antarctic [sea ice extent] and [sea ice volume] have decreasing trends,” researchers added. “Only eight models’ [sea ice extent] and eight models’ [sea ice volume] show increasing trends.”
Chinese scientists only looked at sea ice projections until 2005. Had they kept going, they would find more than a trend of “slightly increasing” sea ice levels. Last year was the first year on record that Antarctic sea ice coverage rose above 7.72 [million] square miles.
By Sept. 22, 2014, sea ice extent reached its highest level on record — 7.76 [million] square miles. Antarctica is now in its melt season, but even so, sea ice levels were very high for late December and early January.
The same can’t be said for Arctic sea ice coverage. The Chinese study notes that for the Arctic “both climatology and linear trend are better reproduced.” Climate models predicted Arctic sea ice extent and volume would decrease as the world warmed, which it has.
“The same can’t be said for Arctic sea ice coverage. The Chinese study notes that for the Arctic “both climatology and linear trend are better reproduced.” Climate models predicted Arctic sea ice extent and volume would decrease as the world warmed, which it has.”
There is a near consensus amongst the IPCC models that increased forcing of the climate will increase positive North Atlantic Oscillation conditions. Yet the NAO turned increasingly negative from the mid 1990’s, in the same time frame as the accelerated warming of the AMO and Arctic. It is true that increased forcing of the climate will increase positive NAO, but not true that increased positive NAO will cause the AMO and Arctic to warm. And by definition, the increase in negative NAO since the mid 1990’s must therefore be due to a decrease in forcing of the climate. And how anyone could model warming at both poles in denial of the polar see-saw effect is astonishing.
There has been a huge increase in older/thicker ice over the past four years.
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https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/03/04/arctic-sea-ice-continues-to-track-2006-3/
In the last two years Ren, and that could readily be reduced again in half the time.
Not sure about the discrepancy between your source of multiyear ice at 5m thick (red) in 2014 and the current readings here
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif
which is more similar in distribution to the 2011 map with the 5m+ ice hugging the northern coast of Ellesmere Island and the northern coastal region of the Archipelago
And a ‘huger’ decrease in older ice prior to the end of 2011, the starting point for your animation.