Cartoonist Rick McKee of the Augusta Chronicle sends this global warming related cartoon our way today. It is set for tomorrow’s edition of the paper, dated 2/21 but we get a sneak peek. Thanks Rick!
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Winter in the eastern US.
http://oi59.tinypic.com/fz8cjq.jpg
“A second wave of cold air is forecast to drop southeastward from Canada during the middle and latter part of the week.
While the cold waves will not be quite as extreme as that already experienced this month, they will prolong winter or delay spring weather, depending on your perspective.
“Temperatures will average 20-30 degrees below normal over a huge area from the southern Plains to New England during the first blast and then 10-20 degrees below normal over a similar area during the second blast,” Lundberg said.
The first week or so of March will trend less cold, but temperatures may still average slightly below normal in part of the Midwest and much of the East.””
http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/newsstory/2015/650x366_02201909_hd21.jpg
34 F on my lanai Friday morning 7 AM. A bit warmer this morning. Thankfully we are looking to get back into the 70’s this weekend.
Tom, 40F in Hollywood, FL on Friday morn.
Matched the record set in 1960.
The loading pattern of the AO is defined as the leading mode of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of monthly mean 1000mb height during 1979-2000 period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/new.ao.loading.gif
The pattern is typical. Why arctic air descends south? The reason is the increase in winter temperatures in the stratosphere.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_JFM_NH_2015.gif
Whenever Arctic air sloshes down, it gets replaced by warmer than average air — a sign of Arctic amplification and melting of sea ice, and quite possibly a positive feedback loop that could intensify this extreme weather over time.
So you are saying that the Arctic is warm? Uhh ..no I didnt think so. Its colder than the US
Lots of extreme cold warnings in the Arctic by Environment Canada. I see that in one place around baker lake the children could finally venture outside to play street hockey because to temperature rose to -30C this past week.
Barry
Whenever Arctic air sloshes down, it gets replaced by warmer than average air — a sign of Arctic amplification and melting of sea ice, and quite possibly a positive feedback loop that could intensify this extreme weather over time.
Please name previous years when the polar vortex was active this way. I’d like to see whether your guess/claim/assumption did actually melt more sea ice up north. Which, over all of the years since 2005, has been oscillating, but steady. Low twice (Sept 2007, Sept 2012), but at the same level overall of -0.950.
Whoa. LOL — that has to be one of the FUNNIEST cut-and-paste fails we’ve seen in a long time.
Barry: Go eat breakfast. You brain is DEFINITELY in a positive feedback loop. Eat — now! You have just 49 more minutes until you have passed the point of extremis!
Barry, I guess if it’s true now, it must have been true in 1886.
The increase in temperature in the stratosphere is the result of galactic radiation waves.
http://oi57.tinypic.com/2mwyq86.jpg
We’ve had only one round of snow so far but the temps—soooo low (for us, anyway). Something interesting I read in the discussion concerning low temps Fri morning at Wakefield (NWS AKQ site). Their thermometer hit -1F but the ASOS instrument there read 3F and that will be the ‘official temp’. I found it interesting that it was mentioned—a 4 degree difference!
The snow in Boston – 17 photos:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/11420088/Snowmageddon-17-amazing-photos-of-record-breaking-US-snow.html
Time to revive an oldie but goodie
‘If we had some global warming’ by M4GW
Nice Muskie!
Seen photos in UK newspapers, including one of a frozen Niagara Falls. You have our sympathies!
Slightly off thread, the Jet Stream is a major influence on our weather and I have been able to forecast the weather with some accuracy by looking at the Jet Stream forecast. 10:00 am here temperature just above freezing but still frosty, beautiful blue skies, not a cloud in sight nor any mention of climate change from the BBC, strange but true!
Well! Mechanicsville, VA, 12 miles NE of Richmond, is nothing like Boston, but we do have our first 5.5″ of snow of the season on the ground. It fell as 5.5″ on Monday night and Tuesday early morning, and it is still there. No melting or thawing except on streets where plowing has exposed the blacktop. So far this week the temp has gone below the RIC (airport) all-time record low three consecutive times, Thursday, Friday, and today. The month so far is averaging 10.4 degrees F below the 30-year RIC average (or “below normal” as some people say). And yes, I know that RIC suffers from UHI, while Mechanicsville doesn’t (or not as much)–but ten degrees’ difference?
What is normal for temperature? Answering that question would imply that we know what the temp is supposed to be, just as we know human body temperature is normally about 98.6 and normal eyesight is 20/20. Of course, we can’t know that about weather or climate. Since rain often lowers ambient temperature, does that mean a rainy day in summer is abnormal? Actually, an “average” day in terms of mean temperature is not common. I just checked my record for the past year and a half and found eleven (11) “average” days since the end of October 2013, which means the other 450 or so days in that span were either above average or below average in mean temperature. I do get tired of hearing weathermen on TV tell me that the temp outside is “warmer [or colder] than it should be this time of year.” Who gets to tell us what it “should” be?
thank Christ we have the internet otherwise we would be all left in the dark
Oh Anthony, you are going to have a field day when you wake up to the R. K. Pachauri news 🙂
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/rk-pachauri-the-energy-research-institute-harassment-charges/1/420185.html
As also mentioned above, it would appear that the Senate will hold an inquiry into how NASA handles global surface temperature adjustments. Smith v. Heller? Will be interesting.
http://dailycaller.com/2015/02/20/republicans-to-investigate-climate-data-tampering-by-nasa/
Heller/Goddard seems to think that TOBS is a small part of the adjustment issue.
“TOBS is actually only a small portion of the Final minus Raw adjustments, and is not due to the time when they “take the temperature.” That is misdirection by NCDC intended to confuse people. It is based on the time when the thermometer is reset. Min/max thermometers record the highest and lowest temperatures since the last time they were reset.” Could this be right and, therefore, the time bomb?
This could be the confrontation of the Century in Climate Change. Mosher will probably appear shortly to try and demolish Heller/Goddard & Co.
Well, I think calling it ‘data tampering’ is the wrong approach. I don’t seriously believe that NASA is arbitrarily adjusting temperatures upward & downward. I do think that they are involved in a ‘cognitive bias’ in that the ‘adjustment’ methodology they have developed favors their particular ‘belief’ about what temperatures are doing. If the methodology reports increasing temperatures, it is what they ‘expect’ so they don’t look to ensure that the methodology is correct. On the other hand, if it reports temperatures falling, then they are sparked to think “there must be something wrong” and they modify the methodology. They believe that temperatures are rising so they can’t see a bias towards warming in the adjustments (if any exists).
When I was a programmer (not a terribly good one, which is why I ended up in software project management – those who can’t do, manage) we always had someone else check our code when looking for a ‘bug’ in our code. It was a well known fact that the programmer was ‘too close’ to the code to readily see his own mistake, we ‘believed’ it was correct, therefore we would have great difficulty finding the error. Another programmer, who had no ‘cognitive bias’ and no stake in whether the code was correct or not, usually saw the problem very quickly.
I think that is what may be going on at NASA, not purposeful deceit. They would probably benefit from an ‘independent audit’ of the adjustment methodology, although, given the current ‘politicized’ state of the Climate Science arena, that will be had to do.
Calling it ‘data tampering’ sets up an adversarial atmosphere from the start and isn’t helpful to finding the truth of the matter.
If you read essay When Data Isn’t in ebook Blowing Smoke, you will probably reach a different conclusion. There can be no question that many of the changes were deliberate, and progressive greater over time. Not just Heller’s stuff, and not just the US.
Leftist Eco-wackos don’t need to be logical, rational or right, they just need to beliiiiieve their in their delusions passionately…
Passion is the new logic….
In a piece in the UK Daily Telegraph which starts with Yellowstone bears coming out of hibernation several weeks early, the card-carrying CAGW-believer Geoffrey Lean says:
“No wonder the bears are confused. Temperatures in the park have been some 10 degrees higher than usual, in what has been one of the warmest winters recorded across the US. Although there have been snowstorms in New England recently, the snowpack in California is only a fifth of average, boding ill for this year’s water supplies for the drought-hit state.”
Not sure which planet he’s on.
Stratosphere 15 km.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_z100_nh_f00.gif
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t100_nh_f00.gif
Planet Daily Telegraph, most former readers managed to get onto spaceships out of there, just before it implodes!
And remember to have your towel handy.
I read Geoffrey Lean’s article in the Daily Telegraph also. A hilarious example of desperation fueled cherry picking and compulsive intellectual dishonesty. If WUWT ran a Saturday funny it would be the odds on favourite.
Thankfully such ideological cant is ably counteracted by Christopher Booker in his Sunday Telegraph column.
I would bet that this has happened many times over the last thousand years. Nothing new. I remember being taught that in elementary school in the 70s . These people should know better since they are considered experts.
We are already 1.2 meters above average snowfall here. Been out helping clear snow off the roofs of the old folks, and filling their wood boxes. I have noticed that the snow seems less dense and perhaps drier than usual? A lot of people have those wood pellet stoves and are hard pressed to get fuel. Glad I cut down 4 extra cord of wood last spring.
There seems Washington DC is producing a lot of “heated’ CO2, but it’s not helping cold snap.
(I might as well get my jabs in now before the Obama’s “net neutrality” takes affect.)
If you just looked at events of the past 100 years you’d think you were seeing a re-run of the early 1970s, when cold and snow meant that it was cold and snowy. Now add alarming AGW due to CO2 green-house effects and what explanatory power does it bring? Mary Tyler-Moore would just frown a moment and say, “Are you’re kidding?”
Check out Youtube right wing philosopher Stefan Molyneux
This guy is incoherent. It makes no sense to “oppose models”, or their predictions. If you want to debate how to respond to the predicted threats, that’s fine, but don’t oppose scientific evidence. “Right wing philosopher” says it all, I guess.
Wow, Barry, that guy may be a kook (didn’t watch the vid),
but, YOU are REALLY mixed up.
The failed IPCC models’ “predictions” are not “scientific evidence.”
No, Mr. Molyneux makes complete sense, Barry. (You must be an apologist for the “Climate Change” cabal and plugged your ears for the whole 15:42.)
Since “climate models” don’t model reality (they obviously deviate from real-world observation), they’re pretty useless. To believe otherwise is what’s unscientific!
Funny how you’d accuse Mr. Molyneux of being a “Right wing philosopher” when he’s actually RIGHT.
You are dishonest when you write an inaccurate review with the intent of getting people to avoid listening to his scathing rebuke of your climate change religion.
By the way, I watched the video. I recommend everybody spend 15 minutes and see why Barry hates the truth.
Are you Barry Obama Soetoro ? Your writings is a perfect match … did you know?
“Barry” is the “other” handle for Pres. B. O. Everyone just keep that in mind as you consider his ramblings. StreetCred nailed it… Maybe “Barry” gets grant $$$ from all of us, via the tax-and-spend processes (another nightmare “model” Mr. B. O. loves). BTW, I use a charcoal grill to cook chicken, steak, and turkey… all yummy and surely encrusted with CO2 stuff, and likely NOT included within the IPCC modeling.
Thanks, Rick. Thanks to global warming South Florida isn’t that cold!
But we have 31°F in the panhandle.
My new screen wall paper.
No doubt about it, it’s been a brutal winter here in NH. Aside from a freakish pre-Thanksgiving nor’easter that dumped a foot or more of heavy, wet snow, causing massive power outages, it was relatively snowless until well into January. However, we had plenty of cold weather which kept the snow cover around from that first storm. Now, folks have been busy raking, shoveling, or however else, getting snow off of roofs, especially with yet one more storm (thankfully, relatively small) arriving later today and tonight.
Thanks for the cartoon version of my back yard. Another 15cms tonight. I agree this is like the 1970s. Did some one hit the re-set button?
23.02 Monday snow in the entire Texas.
At -5 degrees this morning on the SOUTHERN New England coast, I’m glad my fireplace is contributing to both indoor and global warming.
Very cold weather is now gripping Eastern and Central North America, all the way down to Florida.
My friend Joe d’Aleo and colleagues correctly predicted this very cold winter just like they did last winter – unlike Environment Canada and the USA National Weather Service who incorrectly predicted two relatively warm winters and utterly failed last winter and this winter too.
It is notable that our government weather services not only failed to predict the past two winters with any accuracy, but also apparently failed to learn from their past mistakes.
This is a serious issue because many more people die during winter than during summer. The real danger to our society is cold weather, and yet too many people in and out of government and politics are obsessed the false threat of alleged global warming.
***************************************************************************************
Background Information – Europe – I have no data for Canada or the USA
Many more people die of winter cold than summer heat – there is a factor called the “Coefficient of Seasonal Variation in Mortality”, also called the “Excess WINTER Mortality Rate”. This is the greater percentage of people who die in the four winter months (December thru March) than in the warmer eight months of the year. In Europe, the Excess WINTER Mortality Rate ranges from a low of about 10% in Scandinavian countries that adapt well to the cold, to about 20% in the UK, and up to about to 30% in Portugal. In England and Wales that amounts to about 25,000 excess WINTER deaths per year. In all of Europe these excess winter deaths of real people in an AVERAGE winter probably exceed one-quarter of a million souls.
Excess Winter Mortality in Europe: a Cross Country Analysis Identifying Key Risk Factors
http://jech.bmj.com/content/57/10/784.full
Table 1 – Coefficient of seasonal variation in mortality (CSVM) in EU-14 (mean, 1988–97)
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[Changed table to text mode with html “pre” format .mod]
Just back from a panic stricken neighbors place. We moved 5 feet of snow off his roof. Great hot chocolate flavoured with baileys. Love East Coast hospitality. Working on sliding hill for the local kids. All of whom were not supposed to know what snow was. They are all mad because the promised warming never happened and are now getting snow duties,
Hey sully,
“Good fences make good neighbours.”
– Robert Frost
“Good snow-shovelers make even better neighbours.”
– Jack Frost
Thanks for being a good neighbour. 🙂
Comment:
In an article published in the Calgary Herald in 2002, I (we) predicted a return to naturally-caused global cooling by about 2020-2030. In 2002, Solar Cycle 24 was incorrectly predicted by NASA to be robust and it is clearly a dud, so our prediction could be about a decade too late.
A revision or our prediction based on a weak SC24 would start natural global cooling by about 2010-2020 – any time now.
**************************
WINTER HOLDS EASTERN U.S. IN ICY GRIP WITH RECORD LOWS
Doug Stanglin and Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 4:56 p.m. EST February 20, 2015
A bitter, record-setting cold air mass kept its icy grip on much of the central and eastern U.S. on Friday, bringing subzero temperatures and showing no sign of relief next week for winter-weary residents from Florida to New England.
At least 72 record low temperatures were set Friday morning, all the way from Marquette, Mich. (minus 26 degrees) to Miami (42 degrees).
In Minnesota, the community of Cotton posted an overnight low of minus 42 degrees, without the wind-chill factor, the National Weather Service reports. In western Pennsylvania, temperatures dipped to minus 18 degrees in some areas.
“An eddy of the polar vortex is leading to the coldest weather of this recent cold spell, creating a deep layer of bitterly cold air, along with gusty winds,” said meteorologist David Hamrick of the weather service’s Weather Prediction Center.
Lynchburg, Va., plummeted to minus 11 degrees Friday morning, setting a new all-time record low, the Weather Channel reported. Flint, Mich., tied its all-time record low
Washington’s Reagan National Airport registered a 6-degree low on Friday, beating a 119-year-old record low for the day of 8 degrees. New York City’s Central Park dipped to 2 degrees, breaking a 1950 mark of 7 degrees.
Baltimore’s airport posted a low of 2 degrees, besting the previous record of 4 degrees set in 1979.
Amazingly, at 25 degrees, it was warmer in Anchorage than it was in Atlanta, where the temperature bottomed out at 15 degrees this morning.
Commuters wait at the Arlington Heights, Ill., Metra train station as a cold snap took hold in the suburbs of Chicago on Feb. 19, 2015. (Photo: Joe Lewnard, Daily Herald, AP)
After subzero overnight lows from Illinois to western Virginia, highs on Friday are expected to struggle to get out of the teens, according to the weather service.
Nor is winter ready to give up for the year as February comes to a close. The weather service says the latest band of Arctic air could plunge parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into deep freezes that haven’t been felt since the mid-1990s.
As the cold air mass settles in, more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to set the stage for what the weather service calls an “ice event” across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys into the early weekend.
People from New England to the Gulf Coast are coping with some of the coldest temperatures their regions have seen in about 20 years. (Feb. 20) AP
Sleet and freezing rain is expected from Missouri to northern Georgia, changing over to rain Saturday. On the East Coast, snow will change to a wintry mix and eventually to rain for many areas of the mid-Atlantic.
“We are very concerned about the added weight triggering a new round of roof collapses in New England and parts of upstate New York,” says AccuWeather Meteorologist Mark Paquette,
A second wave of cold air is expected to flow out of Canada to the southeast at midweek, bring another round of low temperatures, although not as extreme as this week.
AccuWeather.com says the waves of cold air will “prolong winter or delay spring weather, depending on your perspective.”
Temperatures in the first week of March will be less cold, but still slightly below normal in parts of the Midwest and much of the East, according to AccuWeather.com senior meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Contributing: Associated Press