Time Magazine's Jeffrey Kluger writes what might possibly be the stupidest article about climate ever – climate change causes volcanoes

The stupid, it burns like a magnesium flare.

volcanoes-climateExcerpt from the article:

Now, you can add yet another problem to the climate change hit list: volcanoes. That’s the word from a new study conducted in Iceland and accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. The finding is bad news not just for one comparatively remote part of the world, but for everywhere.

Iceland has always been a natural lab for studying climate change. It may be spared some of the punishment hot, dry places like the American southwest get, but when it comes to glacier melt, few places are hit harder. About 10% of the island nation’s surface area is covered by about 300 different glaciers—and they’re losing an estimated 11 billion tons of ice per year. Not only is that damaging Icelandic habitats and contributing to the global rise in sea levels, it is also—oddly—causing the entire island to rise. And that’s where the trouble begins.

Riiight.

Here’s the money quote:

“As the glaciers melt, the pressure on the underlying rocks decreases,” Compton said in an e-mail to TIME. “Rocks at very high temperatures may stay in their solid phase if the pressure is high enough. As you reduce the pressure, you effectively lower the melting temperature.” The result is a softer, more molten subsurface, which increases the amount of eruptive material lying around and makes it easier for more deeply buried magma chambers to escape their confinement and blow the whole mess through the surface.

“High heat content at lower pressure creates an environment prone to melting these rising mantle rocks, which provides magma to the volcanic systems,” says Arizona geoscientist Richard Bennett, another co-author.

Perhaps anticipating the climate change deniers’ uncanny ability to put two and two together and come up with five, the researchers took pains to point out that no, it’s not the very fact that Icelandic ice sits above hot magma deposits that’s causing the glacial melting. The magma’s always been there; it’s the rising global temperature that’s new. At best, only 5% of the accelerated melting is geological in origin.

So, Iceland has had melting glaciers, OK we’ll accept that, but Iceland is not the world, and a good number of volcanoes that have erupted in the last century are in the tropical parts of the world where there are no glaciers on the volcanoes or magma fields, yet somehow, this writer, Jeffrey Kluger, extrapolates Iceland’s glacier melt to volcano link up to to the entire world.

To the uniniformed (such as Time Magazine writers), graphs like this one might seem to be “proof” of such Icelandic-to-global extrapolation:

volcano-2[1]Source data: http://volcano.si.edu/

Gosh, it sure looks like another slam dunk for carbon dioxide driven climate hell in a handbasket, doesn’t it? The VEI starts increasing right about the time of the industrial revolution.

For those unfamiliar: The volcanic explosivity index (VEI) was devised by Chris Newhall of the US Geological Survey and Stephen Self at the University of Hawaii in 1982 to provide a relative measure of the explosiveness of volcanic eruptions. (Wikipedia)

But, there’s a hitch, according to NOAA data, volcanic activity worldwide actually went DOWN in the 2000’s while the climate changing carbon dioxide went UP in global concentration:

Volcanoes-figure-2[1]

Source: PLOS One The Human Impact of Volcanoes: a Historical Review of Events 1900-2009 and Systematic Literature Review (2013)

co2_data_mlo[1]Correlation isn’t causation, at least when it comes to CO2 and climate and volcanoes.

Something that DID increase during the study period was the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). Guess where Iceland is? In the North Atlantic, which has been in the warm phase since about 1980.

The Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) is a mode of natural variability occurring in the North Atlantic Ocean and which has its principle expression in the sea surface temperature (SST) field. The AMO is identified as a coherent pattern of variability in basin-wide North Atlantic SSTs with a period of 60-80 years.

AMO_fig123[1]Source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/AMO.html

Gee, do you think maybe, possibly, that Iceland might have more glacier melt when the AMO is warmer? The authors don’t seem to be cognizant of it, preferring instead to cite the universal bogeyman “climate change”.

Here is the publication that is cited in the Time article:

Climate driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by CGPS geodesy

Abstract

Earth’s present-day response to enhanced glacial melting resulting from climate change can be measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. We present data from 62 continuously operating GPS instruments in Iceland. Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30 mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1-2 mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back-calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends. We show, through a simple inversion, a direct relationship between ice mass balance measurements and vertical position and show that accelerated unloading is required to reproduce uplift observations for a simple elastic layer over viscoelastic half-space model.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL062446/abstract

Again, no mention of the world here, only Iceland. Compare that to the baseless claim made by the TIME writer Jeffrey Kluger:

The finding is bad news not just for one comparatively remote part of the world, but for everywhere.

Newsflash Mr. Kluger: Iceland is not “everywhere”, and the authors make no claim about the issue affecting the rest of the Earth.

WUWT reader Mike Bromley writes something on his Facebook page that I really can’t improve upon:

Plate tectonics….caused by climate change. No mention of the fact that Iceland has one of the highest geothermal heat fluxes on the planet, that its geomorphology is controlled by vulcanism, that many of the scientific terms for glacial melt features are in Icelandic Language, and oh boy, 11 billion tons of ice is really not that much, in fact, one eruption of Hekla or Eyjafjallajokull would release about that much ice.

These people have zero shame, and even less uniformitarian common sense. They elevate conjecture to the level of fact, for an uncritical media to spew around in alarming terms. This one takes the cake. Vote Green, everyone. Soon you’ll find out what living under nature is all about.

We’ll have more on this later, readers are encouraged to add comments regarding this inanity.

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Latitude

..and just last year it was magma

looncraz

…they do grow up fast…

ShrNfr

They sort of magnafy so to speak.

You’re having a larv…
Pointman

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/09/volcanoes-once-again-again/
Willis found quite a different story. During the time when AGW was actually happening (if it was), during the rapid warming in the1980’s and 1990’s, here are the facts:comment image?w=720

This separate article better explains the connections, and that there is a >2,000 year lag between the climate warming and the increased volcanic activity.
http://www.livescience.com/25936-climate-change-causes-volcanism.html

Looking at the graph in the original article, volcanoes started ramping up around 1800. Perhaps someone can explain how that was caused by human CO2 from fossil fuels?

Jimbo

Let’s remember what this WUWT post is trying to address – Jeffrey Kluger of Time Magazine said:

That’s the word from a new study conducted in Iceland and accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters. The finding is bad news not just for one comparatively remote part of the world, but for everywhere.

The authors of the paper talk about Iceland and not countries which don’t have glaciers but have volcanoes. The Time piece has already issued one correction [“Correction appended Jan. 30, 2015“]. Maybe it’s time it issued another.

Next year it’ll be smegma.

Aleks mici

This the best comment !
Those so called science humans.Buach I vomit !

…which would pretty much prove they’re dick-heads?

masInt branch 4 C3I in is

A true Nut Job and Time Mag. as well as the “Authors” and GRL Editors; psycho-ward escapees!
Did the intrepid GRL Editors even notice the word, Geophysical, in their rags title, or for the Nut Jobs to read that Iceland is built on the Mid-Atlantic Spreading Ridge separating two lithosphere plates above the Iceland Hotspot!
Idiots all.

Jimbo

“Number of Volcanic Eruptions Reported

How important is that word in the scheme of things?

Jimbo

Is it possible that the “Number of Volcanic Eruptions Reported“ has trended up because of better observations?
Unreported volcanoes deduced from aerosols.

Abstract
A decade of stratospheric sulfate measurements compared with observations of volcanic eruptions
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/JC088iC06p03741/abstract
Abstract
SAGE II observations of a previously unreported stratospheric volcanic aerosol cloud in the northern polar summer of 1990
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93GL03376/abstract

Jay Hope

But some other experts have suggested that global cooling is causing more volcanic eruptions! And I thought the warming had stopped 18 years ago?

Mac the Knife

I just read the Time article, linked from Drudge Report, and came over here to see if had ‘surfaced’ yet.
http://time.com/3687893/volcanoes-climate-change/
Breathtaking conjecture that belies reason, sanity, even sentience.

Read that too. In middle of article is video of Jeffrey Kluger taking on Sen. James Inhofe using the 97% fudge. We know that attack. Shut it off, waste of bandwidth.

highflight56433

Here I have been blaming increased taxation for global change everything inclusive natural and unnatural… ufda!
“We’ll have more on this later, readers are encouraged to add comments regarding this inanity (insanity).”
I can’t imagine living with a mind that is so off the chart stupid…and I am not exactly anything bright. lol

Questing Vole

Highflight56433
You’d be right to blame some increased taxation on climate change, or at least on crazy policies designed to counter the conjectured “catastrophic anthropogenic” variety.

JayB

highflight – As much as I have pondered this problem, I don’t know how I missed ‘higher taxation’ as a reasonable cause! I’m still laffin’ – and I’m grateful to you because, after reading the piece, I was in dire need of a jolly to help settle my stomach. Also, its been quite some time since I’ve seen the interjection ‘ufda’. This is a good word and should be used more often.

JayB

Actually, I suggest that higher taxation is a result rather than a cause. . .

Bezotch

JayB:
It is both.
More money in the government’s hands causes more wasteful spending on studies such as this. Studies such as this cause higher taxes, which gives the government more money to waste on studies like this, which cause taxes to go up…..
It is called a positive feedback.

Reblogged this on the WeatherAction News Blog and commented:
I remember the infamous ‘corrector of climate disinformation’ Jo Abbas scratching around in Mar 2011 following the Tōhoku/Sendai earthquake/tsunami as she was convinced it was all our fault. ‘Science’ has proved how right she was
/sarc

Ryan

Just one year ago Time was reporting that volcanoes were slowing down climate change.
http://time.com/9717/volcanoes-may-be-slowing-down-climate-change/

Bert Walker

So, actually this volcano effect would represent a negative feedback for the (infinitesimal) CO2 climate forcing.
We shall now all be saved from Anthropogenic Global Warming by erupting volcanos. Yeah!

it is ridiculous, should not be given any play.

Icelandic glaciers reached their Holocene maximum during the Little Ice Age.
From Ingolffson et al, 2009:
During the mid-Holocene climate optimum some of the present-day ice caps were probably absent. Ice caps expanded after 6.0–5.0 cal. kyr BP, and most glaciers reached their Holocene maxima during the Little Ice Age (AD 1300–1900).
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/23/iceland-glaciers-in-lia-biggest-for-8000-years/
And they’re surprised they’ve melted a bit since?

Jimbo

They did some retreating before 1949. Blame co2?

J Eythorsson – Geografiska Annaler, 1935 – JSTOR
On the variations of glaciers in Iceland. Some studies made in 1931
…..Drangajokull is especially remarkable in that it has undergone considerable changes during historic times. It has laid waste several farms, and the ruins of some of them may still be seen and are known by name……..In Drangajokull no volcanic eruptions are known to have taken place within historic times. Its variations must therefore chiefly be due to climate changes,
http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/519954?sid=21105212693471&uid=2&uid=4
============
Temperature variations in Iceland
J Eythorsson – Geografiska Annaler, 1949 – JSTOR
… The glaciers have been rapidly retreating and thinning for the last two decades, and wherever
you travel in the…..
https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=iceland+glaciers+retreat&hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&as_ylo=1900&as_yhi=1950
[paywalled]

Frank

Even better, we have a new thermostat theory of climate control to added to Willis’s. Volcanos erupt and cause global cooling. Cooling causes Ice caps grow on volcanos. Weight of ice suppresses volcanic activity. Volcanic aerosols clear from the air, causing global warming. Global warming returns, melting ice caps. Volcanic activity is restored.

Aleks mici

Yes , your comment it is the most competent !
Grosseclockner ( Austria) glacier was not there 2000 years ago, after that it grew imenssely to the valley 25 km long, after that smelted again and in that place it was a lake and again the glacier rise hugely , all that before the industrial era, and now it smelt slowly and those scientific bastards crys: disaster ! disaster .
If don’t obey to politicians and banks we will not get any salary. Therefore climat change.
Such imbecile tautology : climat change !

David M

Gee..here in new Mexico we had volcanoes erupting millions of yrs ago…must have climate change

DirkH

Cool! We’ll have Palm trees, pomegranates and olive trees in Germany, and volcanos in our gardens! Big fun!

Some people never learn to understand tectonic plates…. that’s one thing. Stupid as it might be….

Harold

Yes, kids, you too can play scientist with a degree from Acme School of Journalism!

Mac the Knife

Excellent rebuttal analysis, Anthony!

Too bad it’s not true — otherwise, this would be a major negative feedback mechanism.

DirkH

Negative feedback against a warming that has stopped 18 years ago? How does a negative feedback work against a signal that refuses to change?

A related thread:
Another story about global warming causing volcanoes… WUWT Oct. 2, 2014.
I don’t buy it at all. Earth-Tides move the crust up and down 0.3 meters twice a day.
What I can buy is a drop in sea level during Global Cooling can cause volcanic eruptions by increasing the stress on thousands of volcanic islands with their lava skirts exposed above water.

noaaprogrammer

What about a contest on WUWT as to what ridiculous geological or astronomical catastrophe will be caused by global warming. I’ll start with: “A significant change in the Earth’s axial tilt found from melting polar icecaps!” Try to top that one – without being too far fetched.

ralfellis

Disruption of the Earth’s axis die too much ice at the poles? Sorry, that one was done long ago, and several people still have the T-shirt…..
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pole_shift_hypothesis
Ralph

Bezotch

How about:
Due to thermal expansion caused by global warming, the earth has a larger surface area and therefore is much more likely to be hit by an asteroid or comet.
Co2 causes asteroid strikes.

grant

It looks like it should be a wash. As more ice melts, the sea level will increase, putting more pressure on those undersea volcanos causing less eruptions there. /sarc

I’m not sure if it’s a wash. Last year I proposed this mechanism informally. The way I see it, the ice ages should cause increased volcanism in sea floor spreading centers. The rhythmic ebb and flow of sea level oscillating about 130 meters should allow magma chambers to “reload” when the ice is growing and sea level drops. Once the sea level rises there’s a fairly large load imposed over a large area, this should increase magma chamber pressure.
If this mechanism works then we have a decreased local load where the glaciers melted, and increased load in the areas where there were no glaciers and were underwater. But this “kneading” effect should be at its peak when sea level rose and hit a high point. I would have expected increased volcanic activity from say 18000 to 8000 years ago.
I don’t think tying volcanic activity to anthropogenic CO2 has much to stand on, but the geomechanic effects do merit study.

D.J. Hawkins

Ice has a density of about 57 lb/cu ft and so exerts a pressure of 0.396 psi. At a depth of 1 mile, the additional pressure on the crust of the earth is 2,090 psi. Basalt has a density of about 190 lb/cu ft. I found one reference suggesting magma chambers lie around 11-15km below the earth’s surface. Crustal pressure from 11km of basalt above the chamber would be on the order of 47,500 psi. Doesn’t sound like a big change (~5%) to me. Even less, depending on the depth of the glaciers under discussion.

the entire ice cap would have to melt to change the pressure 5%. they are not even sure if the ice cap is shrinking or growing. depends on who does the measuring.

OK I’ll buy that and add a bit.
Iceland is ~40,000 mi² and the glacial coverage is ~11% of that or 122.6×10^9 ft². 11 billion tons of ice (I’ll even use long tons since they didn’t specify) means 197 lbs of ice lost for each ft². That’s a pressure change of 1.37psi. (Yes, I know that’s not how glaciers lose ice, but that’s what the article infers.) If we ignore the rest of the ice depth and just use the basalt’s pressure that’s a delta from 47,500 psi to 47,498.63 psi or a change of 0.002%. <sarc>I can’t imagine why the whole island isn’t now flooded by magma like a dam just broke with that massive pressure change.</sarc> Considering it takes more overpressure than that to break the average plate glass window this is another one I ain’t worrying about. What an inane article, but the loons that think crystals can heal them and Nature is benevolent will buy it hook, line and (lead free, all natural, approved by the State of California) sinker.

Aleks mici

The scientific bastrads treat the Earth as it is an abces !
Strange ways to make clear what it is absolutely not possible to be known.
It is just an educated guess , not more . But they try to sell a fraud , just to please their masters of the NWO.

chris moffatt

Yeah! I can’t tell you how many prospecting trips we had to cancel because of active volcanoes in Labrador when I was in the mining business. The whole Canadian Shield, as I understand, is completely untravellable because of constant lava eruptions. And it’s only getting worse as the air temperatures spiral upwards out of control. I understand there are similar problems in Hawaii with the glaciers there. And as soon as the mile thick ice is gone from Yellowstone we can expect another super-eruption – should be anytime in the next twenty thousand years.

hunter

Over at Bishop Hill, poster Michael Hart stated:
“The BBC aspire to educate the world, yet they cannot educate themselves.”
Reading this article from Time, it seems clear that the deliberate ignorance of the BBC extends to other media outlets.
It is fair to state that Time Magazine aspires to inform its readers, but declines to educate itself.

Rob

The elevated alarm raised by the ‘research’ is rather shocking, but the disgust should be directed toward the post doc PhD student from U of A who is principally making the claim, with total blinders on. Unfortunately, there are incompetent personnel at every institution.

I blame it on the schools, people are often taught how to write good English at the expense of never been taught basic logic. Common sense and actual fact checking are indeed a rare commodity to most in Journalism. This could have simply been blown out the water by just passing the paper under the noses of a few academics from true sciences first – the BS reaction would have been almost instant.

Harold

Good English? Where? Most kids (and many adults) these days think ‘their’ is singular.

mebbe

Pedantry is all well and good but you run the risk of saying something silly. And you just did that.
Impersonal ‘their’ has been employed by speakers and writers, many of them highly esteemed, since at least the fifteenth century.

Alan Robertson

“Stupidest” vs “Most stupid” (more stupid/stupider) has also been bandied about for quite some time,
as has the usage of “bantered” vs “Bandied”.
I don’t care.
All I want to know is, where are the trolls?

Harold

Consensus of the esteemed? Oy.

mebbe

Harold,
Doubling down on silly!

CodeTech

Their they’re – just relax, don’t listen to the loosers, there not to brite neway.

Isn’t as important as learning how to think, they could do that poor English could be forgiven.

highflight56433

Few graduate with any sense of “good” writing skills. Even some GRPs are scribbled drivel on TP.

Gunga Din

ur n 2 smting

DCA

Warming causes volcanoes which causes cooling. Where’s the net “Change”? ….or is volcanic activity a negative freedback to the warming?

DCA

that’s feedback

JPS

“Perhaps anticipating the climate change deniers’ uncanny ability to put two and two together and come up with five, the researchers took pains to point out that no, it’s not the very fact that Icelandic ice sits above hot magma deposits that’s causing the glacial melting.”
There’s no need to be nasty about it. It’s a fine question: How sure are you which one causes which?
Only in climate science and a few other fields is asking such questions seen as evidence of bad faith.
Being one of those uncanny 2+2 = 5 folks (not really, but he’d say so), I’d further ask: How did they disprove that volcanic activity caused the melting? Were they open to the idea that it did, or did they start with the need to disprove this alternative? I’m hoping there’s more to it than “The magma’s always been there,” since their whole observed effect is *increased* volcanic activity!
Not that I am making this case; I’d incline, while confessing my relative ignorance, toward the AMO explanation nicely given above. But that’s the great thing about this particular “science”: You’re not allowed to ask, “How do you know that?” or say “Not so fast,” unless you have the right credentials and signal that you’re on the right team.

This.
“Being one of those uncanny 2+2 = 5 folks (not really, but he’d say so), I’d further ask: How did they disprove that volcanic activity caused the melting? Were they open to the idea that it did, or did they start with the need to disprove this alternative? I’m hoping there’s more to it than “The magma’s always been there,” since their whole observed effect is *increased* volcanic activity!”
Yep, the magma has always been there, at precisely the same temp, never moved, never had rock above it weakened by tremors, and sat 1C below its freezing point at high pressures. Only when AGW took away what, 2m of ice thickness? did volcanoes happen.
How do volcanoes ever happen anywhere else then???

Jeff Mitchell

But 2+2 = 5 for large values of 2.

+1

Just an engineer

And after proper hominization, there is a 38% chance that 2+2 will equal 6!

Mike M

Then let’s just chalk up volcanoes as being yet another negative feedback….

Texcis

I was going to say that, but you beat me to it! Nature’s thermostat control much more advanced than ours.

Here is some more info on the state of their glaciers
http://earthice.hi.is/glaciers_iceland
Seems to have started in the late 1800’s.

Jimbo

Glaciers around the world have been in a general state of retreat since the end of the Little Ice Age (~1870). I vaguely recall that Icelandic glaciers have also been generally retreating with occasional advances.

Abstract
“The Little Ice Age glacier maximum in Iceland and the North Atlantic Oscillation: evidence from Lambatungnajökull, southeast Iceland”
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1502-3885.2006.tb01113.x/abstract
Abstract
The Initiation of the “Little Ice Age” in Regions Round the North Atlantic
http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-017-3352-6_2

What about land rise in Northern Sweden by as much as 3 feet per century. There are no volcanoes there.
It is still recovering from the last ice-age. The whole North Atlantic ridge from Jan Mayen to Svalbard is rising too, All that water has to go somewhere, hence the rising sea levels in the rest of the world.

MCourtney

It makes sense.
Volcanoes go with dinosaurs.
Glaciers go with mammoths.
Where dinosaurs stop you get mammoths.
So where volcanoes stop you get glaciers.
And vice versa.
QED.

wayne Job

Going with real science, volcanic activity and climate is the suns domain, the magma is in pools, balls of molten rock unconnected to the centre of the Earth. This makes them an electric-magnetic phenomenon caused by the moods of the sun.

Barry

I recommend reading the entire article (as usual), rather than only edited snippets:
http://time.com/3687893/volcanoes-climate-change/
A nice video documentary to boot!

Jimbo

I have read it and it is BS. They are speculating of the cause being man. It’s not.

“A new study reveals one more consequence of our messing with the environment”

How do I mess with NAO and AMO?
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379113001145

Barry, as a matter of curiosity, have you EVER seen or read ANY thing that that supported your ardent belief in CAGW that you didn’t come and praise loudly? I’m sure if there was an article on ‘man-made global warming’ causing clowns make-up to run being ridiculed that you and Harry and David Socrates would all be there telling us how important it was, how foolish we were to laugh and what a nice video documentary it was.

Another Ian

Dave
Ist April coming up. Do tou think – –

Keith Willshaw

Its complete bollocks and very misleading bollocks at that, An Isostatic rebound of an inch or so
a year can be found across most of northern Europe and America. It has NOTHING to do with current ice melting but is a reaction to the melting of the mile high ice sheets that used to exist.
See Journal of the Geological Society March 2010 vol. 167 no. 2 417-432
Take a look at the UK Met Office page on Iceland and you will see that eruption rates in the 20th century were LOWER than those in the 18th and 19th centuries when the region was still in the grip of the little ice age.
I’ll leave the last word to them.
“Iceland’s volcanism can be attributed to its location on the Mid Atlantic Ridge in the North Atlantic Ocean, where the Eurasian and North American plates are moving apart a few centimeters per year. In Iceland, this produces volcanic rift zones, regions where the Earth’s crust is being pulled apart and fractured, and here molten rock, or magma, rises up, and some reaches the surface and erupts as lava and/or ash. ”
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/latest/volcano/iceland

Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
Global warming is like the monster in a bad 1950s science fiction movie: there is nothing it cannot do. Nothing.

And like “The Blob”, it moves very slowly yet it can’t be outrun.

Iceland actually straddles the mid Atlantic rift. That is why almost all of it is so active, and also why so many of the eruptions are basaltic. One part of the rift on Iceland is the Reykjanes Ridge, and the spreading rate there is on order of 2.5cm/year! This also changes elevations, but that is cross fault block and side (west/east) dependent. No glacier there now. Popular tourist spot. My daughter went last summer.
I am not going to read the paper, since is is impossible to disentangle tectonic uplift from ice mass loss isostasis no matter how fancy the model calculations are. All a differential GPS can do is measure change in elevation. Not why
Techtonic uplift under the eastern cauldron under the Vatnajokul glacier has been measured as high as 9 cm/day prior to sub ice eruptions causing jokulhlaups. Part of the monitoring/warning system.
So the papers Iceland conclusions are more models all the way down. Let alone that Iceland is unique. Time’s extrapolation to the world just shows how braindead MSM have become.

Pat Frank

Good point implicit in your last line, Rud. There seems to be a good correlation between increasing MSM stupidity and rising CO2 levels.
Does global warming cause journalists to become increasingly dumb? Or is it that increasingly dumb journalists hyperventilating more CO2 are causing global warming?
The question seems right up there with the other recent profundities considered in climate science.

Joe Prins

Was waiting for someone to bring up the Atlantic rift. The ( computer) modellers will have fun trying to allocate the various forces at play in that part of the world. Blaming any isostatic rise to an minuscule increase in air temperature would be just a tad of a stretch. Was playing tourist there last year. 27 of 62 gps stations show statistically upward movement, that is, less then half. Climate change does not affect the other 35? Do they have any model to explain that?

Mike Henderson

Here’s a current report from Vatnajokul.

Mike Henderson
AntonyIndia

Isn’t this kind of publication part of the campaign to scare politicians into “doing more” at COP21 later this year in Paris? The “Armageddon around the corner” setup? Another example is this one: “Grassroots sports at risk from heatwaves due to climate change, report warns” here http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jan/30/grassroots-sports-at-risk-from-heatwaves-due-to-climate-change-report-warns

They’re onto something . . . or on something . . . Is anyone minding the store any longer?
“planet has a fever”???

Dawtgtomis

Maybe it’s just hot flashes and moodiness. If it is a fever then get ready for some chills, too.

Mac the Knife

Mann-o-pause….. causes all symptoms.

Mann-Made Mann-O-Pause… I like it!

Dawtgtomis

If this speculation is at all substantial, one would expect to find evidence of at least regional surges in volcanic eruptions during the MWP. If the chart above had shown that period and a rise during it, it might have gotten my interest, despite the evidence that a LACK of volcanic activity shared causality of the MWP.
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/175842/medieval-warm-period-MWP
Can anybody point me towards a source of data on medieval volcanic activity to check this out?

If you google it you’ll see that 5 out of 10 of the largest volcanic eruptions in human history happened in the last two centuries, beginning with Tambora in 1815.

Fenryys

…and the only prescription is more cowbell.

Reminds me, I’m hungry. I’m going to go eat a hamburger. A mile high one at that. if you’ve seen the ad you’ll know what I mean..

Duster

I may have experienced a sever arithmetic break down, but … isn’t 12-billion tons about the equal of a cube of basalt 150 meters on a side? That is, if you assume the first “tons” are short tons, and you estimate volume based on 3,011.5 kg per cubic meter of solid basalt? That would be not merely a small but an absolutely trivial effect.

simple-touriste

Why don’t they use a multiple of kg to avoid the metric ton/funny(*) ton issue?
(*) I am French, so the idea that a ton is sometimes not 1000 kg is funny to me.

I did the math in a reply to D.J. above and got 1.37psi change of his calculated 47,500psi of basalt. I believe that’s a few orders of magnitude below “absolutely trivial.”

Duster

That would be a “severe” arithmetic breakdown.

Sir Harry Flashman

The relationship between melting ice (on a grand scale) and volcanism is nothing new at all, it’s been known for years.And while the results are completely unpredictable, volcanism is rarely a good thing for human populations.

mebbe

Yes, having all that annoying basalt and granite intruding and extruding all over the place is a true curse.
If only we could just cool the poor Earth’s terrible fever, we could force that rock down into the magma.

Grey Lensman

Thats just what geothermal energy extraction does.

Jimbo

Sir Harry Flashman
….volcanism is rarely a good thing for human populations.

Actually many people locate farmland near volcanoes due to it being among the “richest agricultural lands on earth“. [University of California at Santa Barbara, Department of Geological Sciences] I assume the food they eat is good for them.

Abstract
Volcanoes and the Environment
Fred M. Bullard
Houston Geological Society Bulletin, Volume 19, No. 3, November 1976. Pages 2-2.
…….Periodic ash falls from volcanic eruptions maintains the fertility of the soil. A study in Indonesia shows a direct relationship between soil fertility, density of population, and the location of active volcanoes.
http://archives.datapages.com/data/HGS/vol19/no03/02.htm
=========
Encyclopedia Britannica
Indonesia……..Soils…….
Among the most fertile soils are the ando soils, which developed on the andesitic volcanic sediments of the northeastern coast of Sumatra. Highly fertile soils, also derived from or enriched by basic andesitic volcanic material, occur on Java and Celebes as well. Valuable volcanic ash is transported by wind and deposited as a layer of homogeneous, fresh inorganic material over wide areas; it is also carried as suspended material in streams and irrigation channels. Minerals that are leached from the soil are replaced by alluvial deposition from rivers, as in some parts of Kalimantan, or by deposition in impounded water or rice terraces……
http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/286480/Indonesia/22841/Soils

dccowboy

Well, that didn’t work out too well for the folks in Pompeii & Heracleanum

joelobryan

Not too mention almost all (if not all) the world’s coffee bean production comes from volcanic hillsides with rich dark mineral-laden soils.
– Joel, a caffeine coffee addict.

Jimbo

dccowboy
January 30, 2015 at 2:55 pm
Well, that didn’t work out too well for the folks in Pompeii & Heracleanum

I had never thought of that! What I was addressing was this:

Sir Harry Flashman
….volcanism is rarely a good thing for human populations.

I showed evidence of widespread good for farmers who farmed rich volcanic soils near volcanoes. Food is “good”.

Gentle Tramp

@HarryFlashmann
Quote: “…volcanism is rarely a good thing for human populations.”
That’s a rather shortsighted view which is typical for most warmists who usually have a poor understanding of the geological perspective.
Without volcanos, life on the continents would have gone extinct long before the first humans could have roamed the earth. That is because volcanos are the main source of getting back life-giving CO2 (for photosynthesis – remember?) from the sedimentation process into the atmosphere. Hence volcanos do close the global carbon circuit and consequently the circle of life itself. Without volcanism and its carbon-liberating effect in the lithosphere, nearly all carbon would be now deposited in the gigantic carbonate sediments of our planet and in coal, fossil oil and natural gas, as well.
But in the long run, carbon-liberation by volcanism was weaker than the carbon sedimentation process. This is the reason why the CO2 levels in atmosphere gradually declined since the jurassic and cretaceous eras until it reached a dangerously low level of about 180 ppm at the end of the last ice age. Life on the continents was then shockingly close on the brink of extinction which lies below a CO2 concentration of 150 ppm because photosynthesis will stop then!
Therefore, in the long run again, it is a very positive and honorable action of us humans to help the volcanos delivering CO2 – THE GAS OF LIFE – back into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels ! Otherwise who can tell whether life on earth would survive the next real and probably 100 ka long ice age, when the atmospheric CO2 level could decline even more ???
PS: And don’t forget as well: Without volcanism and a liquid Earth mantle as its reason, we would not have our geo-magnetical shield against cosmic radiation and the erosion of our thin atmospheric air layer…

Gentle Tramp

One might add this quote from a description of Earth’s carbon circuit:
“Some have calculated that if no CO2 is added at all, the atmosphere and the oceans will be emptied for CO2 over about 2.5 million years and all photosynthesis and thus all life will then cease.”
Any questions?

Grey Lensman

On the basis of ” Pompeii & Heracleanum”, watermelons would evacuate all human settlements within 100km of every volcano. Thats how their mind works on every issue. think of the consequences.

without the heat of the mantle to turn water to steam, our oceans would have long ago drained into the earth, and life as we know it on earth would have long been extinct.
given the density of water, and its ability to flow downhill through even the smallest cracks, the oceans are only held in place by a layer of high pressure steam underneath them.

Gentle Tramp

@fredberple
Very funny indeed, but I’m not sure if all warmists could understand your joke. So let’s be clear: Water has a smaller density than the lithosphere and the oceans don’t need the help of volcanism to keep their rightful place… 😉

Rick K

Well, being atop an active volcano may not be good.
Being under an ocean is also not good.
Being under fertile, arable land isn’t good either.
I guess I’m missing something here…

Dawtgtomis

You are missing the negative perspective. It makes change of anything a threat, instead of an opportunity.

bob boder

Troll alert

“It was only later that we appreciated that a planet running a fever is just like a person running a fever, which is to say it has a whole lot of other symptoms: in this case, droughts, floods, wildfires, sea level rise, species loss, crop death and more.”
The symptoms that we need to be concerned about are the effects of schedule 1 drugs on an entire generation, and their subsequent use of drugs on school children to keep them quiet in their public schools.

Texcis

+1

how is it that large numbers of boys are prescribed Ritalin to keep them quiet in school? In some private schools I’ve heard the number is well over 50%.

You should have seen how upset they were when I said no. He knew every Thomas the tank engine trains, every pokeemon ( at that time there were 128) , but somehow the teachers weren’t able to teach him anything? He wasn’t hyper either, he could stand at attention for an hour or more. (went to basic encampment at Ft Dix part of the civil air patrol) We took him and the rest out and homeschooled.

Has anyone else caught the story that the shrink who “invented” ADD & ADHD said it was a “ficticious disease”? They wanted to put my son on that Ritalin crap. Not only no but hell no. I put him on a full-spectrum liquid mineral supplement and the complaints about “figiting in class” stopped completely. Our soils are depleted; if you can add cold water extracted, plant derived minerals to your daily diet do so.

Jim s london

But that’s good for Iceland more hot magma rising to the surface more Geothermal Energy.

Jim

It’s nice to have the geothermal energy. On the other hand it has been estimated that the 1783 volcanic eruption in Iceland resulted tin the death of about 25% of Iceland’s populaition. So it’s definitely a mixed blessing.

Rick K

Mother Earth is simply making more Iceland. Why don’t warmunists like Iceland?

Duster

Not really. You want it near the surface, where water can penetrate and then get can be cycled through a turbine by judicious drilling and ducting. On the surface it cools right off and then you are left with aggregate base source material.

mebbe

“But, there’s a hitch, according to NOAA data, volcanic activity worldwide actually went DOWN in the 2000’s…”
That’s not a hitch, that’s consistent with what the models are telling us. Global Warming ♫ causes more volcanoes and fewer volcanoes.

Thanks for the H/T, Anthony. Reading that article actually cause physical pain…with its liberal admixture of frumpy ad hominem and junk science alarm. Stupendous.

marty glaude

Hold on a second guys. I’ve been arguing with my liberal friends about “global warming” for decades now. I’m a complete skeptic.
However!!! When my family lived in Sitka, Alaska we had a dormant volcano named Mt Edgecumbe that geologists think was caused by isostatic rebound. It last erupted 11,000 years ago after the last of the glacial (~3,000 ft. of it) ice melted. The geologists theorize this since the volcano isn’t located near any faults/rifts like most volcanoes are.
So, it might be possible in a few instances, eh?
Love your site and the work you do Anthony.
Marty

JPS

Marty:
“Mt Edgecumbe…last erupted 11,000 years ago after the last of the glacial (~3,000 ft. of it) ice melted.”
Are you sure?
http://www.sitka.com/Porky/porky.htm

marty glaude

Hey jps, my roadside geology book says 9,000 years.
Yeah, I’ve always wanted to recreate Porky’s stunt.
Bought a chainsaw from his son once..
marty

Mac the Knife

A masterful prank!
Thanks!

The complete melting of 1mile thick glaciar vs. a small % increas in the melt speed are two very different things.

Kevin Kilty

It’s at the end of a fault that is presently a transform fault (Queen Charlotte) but may have had different modes of motion in the past. So, it’s in a bit of a different situation than the volcanoes on the Aleutian chain, but the entire coast of western North America has volcanism of all sorts. And, once there is an established plumbing system to store and transport magma, volcanism can go on for a few millions of years, anyway, after the primary cause is gone.

Duster

Ah, Marty, that whole landscape you lived in is defined by two major geological processes. One is glaciation. The other is tectonics. All the glacial rebound in the world can’t trigger a volcano unless there is a magma source very close to the surface (like Ice Land in fact, which has magma near enough to the surface to keep the island pretty warm considering where it is located latitudinally). More to the point look at the region on Googlearth from an altitude of about 2100 km. Find Denali. You will be able to trace a neat, smooth, approximately parabolic arc along the Alaska Range. Projecting the eastern side downward in a smooth, compatible curve will pretty much bulls eye Sitka and Mt. Edgecumbe. The Alaska range itself is a volcanic arc caused by the northern motion of the Pacific plate, which dive under the south coast of Alaska. Sitka, and thus Mt. Edgecumbe is sitting more or less on the boundary between the Pacific and North American plates.

marty glaude

hey duster.
of course you’re right.
what I remember was some geologists theory that mt. edgecumbe was unique. no other volcanoes within 100’s of miles. so perhaps isostasy and crustal rebound created a magma channel that terminated with mt edgecumbe..
marty

marty glaude

are you an isostatic rebound denier, duster?

marty glaude

sorry. it’s late..

Sitka, AK, is located near a diffuse transform plate boundary between the Pacific and North American plates. The islands and fjords of the Panhandle region are accreted and sheared slices of crust and their boundaries. Plenty of crustal weakness to provide conduits for magma movement. The big giveaway for subglacial to isostatic rebound vulcanism would be the presence of pillow lavas, as can be demonstrated by a similar Pleistocene eruptive phase in the nearby British Columbia interior, tectonically similar to the Alaska Panhandle.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ash_Mountain_(British_Columbia)
The mechanism is clearly known to occur, during and subsequent to the removal of more than a kilometer of ice….which would have the isostatic effect of removing 400 meters of rock load–in a geologically very short period–from a region fraught with a jumble of accreted crustal slices.
Iceland, however, is a living, breathing cauldron of inflating and deflating magma chambers and fissures, as recent activity has shown. To declare a set unidirectional ‘rebound’ rate for the island due to ice melt is very amateurish because it does not acknowledge the volcano-tectonic overprint which is impossible to predict. Basically, Iceland bounces up and down like a leviathan basaltic bronco on a short geological time scale….which is far longer than the tiny and partial GPS record these fellows have used to “sort of” develop their hypothesis….before it runs smack dab into the required climate change link.

marty glaude

excellent breakdown, mike.

NielsZoo

I’ll second that, nice job Mike. Makes perfect sense.

Kevin Kilty

Indeed, rocks do melt under lowered pressures; but, the pertinent question is “what is the partial derivative of temperature with respect to pressure on an adiabat?” It is a very small quantity. I recall it being possibly a couple of hundred degrees (K) when the pressure changes are those of, say, 600 kilometers of dense rock (3500 kg/m^3). One mile of ice seems like a lot of pressure until one compares it to a mile of rock, and removing a mile of rock at Bingham Pit, for example, has not lead to a magma discharge. Perhaps this changes the subsurface temperature by a measurable fraction of a degree, but it is not a measurable contribution to magma production.

Kevin Kilty

“led” not lead.

mebbe

Not a led mine, you’re saying? 🙂

The Puffington Host had a similar observation back in 2010: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dk-matai/are-global-warming-volcan_b_550936.html … And my contemporaneous take on it: http://stevemaley.com/2010/04/26/552443908/

marty glaude

ok, I can’t find the exact citation in my “Roadside Geology of Alaska ” book, so I might be getting it wrong.
The only pertinent quote is, “Local tectonic structures such as the Chatham Strait fault and other northwest trending faults became inactive several tens of millions of years before the Edgecumbe volcano rock erupted and thus cannot be involved.”
marty

Christopher Hanley

Increasing CO2 = rising global temperature = melting glaciers = more volcanoes = global cooling = thickening glaciers = less volcanoes = global warming, ad infinitum.

JimS

This goes beyond plain stupidity; it is as insane as Caligula appointing a horse as Consul of Rome.

in a contest of common sense, I’d place my money on the horse.

bob boder

+10 to ferd

joelobryan

JKluger@time.com is indeed breathtakingly stupid on the issue of Climate Change with regards to human-produced CO2 causation. Trying to make the Iceland findings appear as a global climate change issue is idiotic beyond belief. Ignorance can be cured with education, but as AW notes above, Mr. Kluger’s climate change stupidity burns white hot. Even more sadly, Kluger willfully deceives his readers.
I find it quite humorous that this lawyer-turned-journalist is the Time’s senior science editor. His only real claim to fame is co-writing a book on Apollo 13 with astronaut Jim Lovell, that was used by Ron Howard to make the movie. Sadly Lovell did not sign the April 10, 2012 open-letter (link below to a copy with signatories) to NASA Administrator Bolden, but 7 of his fellow Apollo-SkyLab era-astronauts did, along with Dr Kraft and Mr Griffin, both Directors for many years of Johnson Space Center. The climate change alarmists tried to dismiss this letter but a review of the names and positions of the signatories, reads like a Who’s Who of NASA, including many science and engineering PhDs and senior staff of the 60’s-90’s.
http://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-scientists-dispute-climate-change-2012-4
Joel O’Bryan, BSCE, PhD

mikewaite

An interesting observation . Just a few days ago certain individuals hostile to skeptics were dismissing the analyses of Lord Monkton because he was a classical trained graduate from Cambridge (no mean university ) turned journalist and therefore had no right to get involved in scientific debate.
I have not seen a similar dismissal from the same individuals , on equivalent grounds , of this lawyer-turned -journalist .
Hypocrisy is the word that springs to mind and risks devaluing any further contribution from those sources .

mikewaite, the whole argument of the form “he’s not a climate scientist” is bollox, no matter who makes the claim. It ignores the content, and offers no clear view of what those who make such an argument object to. I get pilloried often by this type of thing, because a geologist “is not a climate scientist”. Well, OK then. But a geologist deals with the rock record, a good proportion of which is sedimentary, and basically a data disk that recorded the actions of climate. Tree Trunks on Ellesmere Island sort of stuff.
But yes, you are right, the fact that those who skewer Monckton for his lack of credentials are not equality-minded in their distribution of targets.

dam1953

Next week in Time “climate change causes sun spots.” You read it hear first.

MarkW

Magma changes are under miles of rock, yet somehow the loss of a few feet of ice is critical.
These guys can’t do even simple math.

Alan Robertson

Well, climate mitigation in this case will be extra simple. First, gather the virgins…

Neil Jordan

If your climate control method inadvertently causes too much cooling, you can reverse the effect with timely bottle(s) of gin to propitiate Pele, the volcano goddess:
http://www.hawaiilife.com/articles/2011/10/visit-to-kilauea-volcano/
“We were told to bring a bottle of gin, flowers, fruits, and the song within us to honor the Goddess Pele, and when we went there, it was such a beautiful day! We could tell she was pleased to see us!”
I don’t know about the flowers, fruits, and song. When I lived there, it was gin. And it better not be the cheap stuff.

Before COP 21 Paris meeting this fall, if the lead post’s absurd kind of research garbage is a trend setting precedent, then I expect to see a paper entitled:
‘Climate Change caused by Changed Climate (Really so Run for Your Lives)’
If we see a paper like it, then what are the odds it would be favorably tweet peer reviewed by Dana, Cook, Ward, Oreskes and Mann?
John

Alan Robertson

Yes, but who could look forward to such a thing, as we would be swarmed by trolls- hating on us for questioning the “science”.

Alan Robertson,
On the brighter side, consider that anyone coming here to hate us is ‘sauce for the goose’ . . .
I enjoy your frequent comments on WUWT.
John

Brandon Gates

Alan,
Questioning science is fine. Required in my book. What causes this troll to swarm are the broad-sweeping, thinly evidenced (read:preposterous) allegations and insinuations of nefarious manipulation you are so fond of spewing. It’s difficult to have a properly skeptical evidence-based conversation when one party flatly and categorically rejects the empirical observations which don’t conform to their position.

Alan Robertson

Hey Brandon,
I think it’s doubly funny that mentions of trolls caused you to not only come out of the closet and admit that you are a troll, but that you also went on to mount an ad hominem attack against me. You weren’t even on the list of trolls I was thinking about when making those earlier remarks, but the shoe sure fit you, so you picked it up and put it on. Hilarious!
By the way, it’s almost heartwarming to see you recognize and list all of your traits and characteristics of which we’ve grown so wearily accustomed. For a moment, I almost had hope for your improvement, but I’m resigned that it won’t last… run along now and take your meds. The adults will still be here when you get back.

Brandon Gates

Alan,

I think it’s doubly funny that mentions of trolls caused you to not only come out of the closet and admit that you are a troll …

I’ll put it in “scare quotes” next time. For ironically impaired donchaknow.

… but that you also went on to mount an ad hominem attack against me.

Says the guy who is fond of calling people trolls. See, I know my tu quoque too.
Of course the main point of my reply to you was the preposterous nature of your arguments about systemic data manipulation, and the near-impossibility of having a reasonable debate with someone when there is little or no commonly established basis for relevant facts.

By the way, it’s almost heartwarming to see you recognize and list all of your traits and characteristics of which we’ve grown so wearily accustomed.

Thphphththt …. “troll” is hardly encompassing of my most endearing qualities. Insufferably arrogant know-it-all is far more descriptive. And accurate.

For a moment, I almost had hope for your improvement, but I’m resigned that it won’t last… run along now and take your meds. The adults will still be here when you get back.

How can I help but be perfectly charming with such good advice as that!

Alan Robertson

Brandon says “Of course the main point of my reply to you was the preposterous nature of your arguments about systemic data manipulation,”
—————————-
Since you have intruded yourself into this conversation, you’ve twice used those words and similar as a weapon of personal attack. Surely nothing I’ve said in this thread related in any way to your accusations. You pulled your smears out of thin air.
Your blatant defense of troll behavior makes me think that perhaps you are in fact, working in concert with some of the more ridiculous trolls who frequent these pages.
If you detest the term troll, then you should stop being a troll. You came out of the woodwork on this one, with sole point of making a baseless attack against me and now you’ve done it again.

Brandon Gates

Alan Robertson,

Since you have intruded yourself into this conversation, you’ve twice used those words and similar as a weapon of personal attack. Surely nothing I’ve said in this thread related in any way to your accusations. You pulled your smears out of thin air.

Not in this thread, but here’s a very current example from another one: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/29/a-sin-of-commission/#comment-1847758
Your manipulated graph and original statement did nothing but obscure the truth.
In response to a graph posted by rooter …
http://www.phy.duke.edu/~rgb/cCO2-to-T-volcano.jpg
… which if you click on you will find isn’t rooter’s graph at all.

Your blatant defense of troll behavior makes me think that perhaps you are in fact, working in concert with some of the more ridiculous trolls who frequent these pages.

You were saying something about pulling “smears out of thin air”?

If you detest the term troll, then you should stop being a troll.

I don’t detest the term “troll”, I object to its imprecise definition and selective, arbitrary application. Not just on WUWT but everywhere.
It is also a form of ad hominem argument. I don’t take kindly to “do as I say, not as I do” standards of behavior. If objecting to that is trolling, then I am guilty as charged.

Alan Robertson

Brandon, it’s simple, really… quit thinking of yourself as a troll and doing such things as outing yourself as a troll. Then, you won’t have to behave as a troll in order to maintain your self image and the rest of us won’t have to put up with it, either.

Brandon Gates

Alan,
I don’t think of myself as a troll. That I’m given to making ascerbic remarks about arguments which I think are crap does not cut it in my book. Especially not WUWT which is a gathering place for people given to verbally skewering arguments and people alike. Can you honestly tell me that my comments are any more a paint-peeling “personal attack” than your quote: Your manipulated graph and original statement did nothing but obscure the truth.? Are you ever going to acknowledge that it isn’t even rooter’s plot? Substantiate your assertion that it was somehow improperly manipulated?
Here’s my unsolicited advice to you. If you don’t want people to throw rocks at your arguments, don’t throw rocks with your arguments. I’m more a cinder block guy myself, dropped from a great height when I can manage it. The petty whinging you’re dealing on my alleged troll complex isn’t fit to be called gravel. You need a boulder here, and you’re not going to find it with amateur Internet psychoanalysis. I’d be heads-down in the data were I in your shoes.

Alan Robertson

“What causes this troll to swarm are the broad-sweeping, thinly evidenced (read:preposterous) allegations and insinuations of nefarious manipulation… ”
—————-
Again, it is apparent that the only one who has called anyone a troll in this thread is you, Brandon. You interjected yourself into a lighthearted banter about trolls and then also dragged another person into the conversation. It’s too bad that you haven’t yet realized that by your effort to besmirch and intimidate me for using the term “troll”, that you subtly and indelibly branded that other person as a troll. Surely, that couldn’t have been your intent?
Enough about trolls. That graph and rooter’s statements really do need more than my opinion given in passing…
First, I don’t care who made the graph originally, or where it was found. When rooter posted it and commented, he owned it and the graph became “your (rooter’s) graph” for purposes of discussion. Your machinations about ownership are a strawman, but you know that (don’t you?) Semantics aside, any graph could be viewed as a manipulation (hint: the “fitted” label in this case is a big tipoff.) That graph isn’t too bad, but was used by rooter to make a point about a causal logarithmic relationship between CO2 and temperature. If rooter’s statement and the graph’s correlation were together meaningful, then the ideas that atmospheric CO2 had no warming impact before 1950 and thus, could be responsible for only half of any warming since that time, would be wrong. By attacking my opinion of both the graph and rooters smartypants comment(s) at the time, you are saying that what we think we know of atmospheric physics is wrong, effectively claiming- CO2 was the driver which brought the planet out of the Little Ice Age. If causality attributed to the graph’s correlation were correct and the physics is wrong, then any early 21st century warming would have continued in step with increase in CO2atm and there might have been a closer “fit” during other periods covered by the graph. Is that what happened?
——
” the broad-sweeping, thinly evidenced (read:preposterous) allegations and insinuations of nefarious manipulation you are so fond of spewing…”
Really?

Brandon Gates

Alan Robertson,

Enough about trolls.

Yes, please, by all means, enough.

Your machinations about ownership are a strawman, but you know that (don’t you?)

More of a positive ad hominem in the form of an appeal to good reputation, if not authority. And yes, I’m fully aware of it. It was intentional.

Semantics aside, any graph could be viewed as a manipulation (hint: the “fitted” label in this case is a big tipoff.)

A logical possibility, sure. It just happens that I’ve done that particular fit myself a number of times, so I natively trust it.

If rooter’s statement and the graph’s correlation were together meaningful, then the ideas that atmospheric CO2 had no warming impact before 1950 and thus, could be responsible for only half of any warming since that time, would be wrong.

Here’s the plot again:
http://www.phy.duke.edu/~rgb/cCO2-to-T-volcano.jpg
1850-1950 shows about 0.15 K of predicted warming, so yes I agree that “the ideas that atmospheric CO2 had no warming impact before 1950” is challenged on the basis of this plot alone.

By attacking my opinion of both the graph and rooters smartypants comment(s) at the time, you are saying that what we think we know of atmospheric physics is wrong …

That is not my position.

… effectively claiming- CO2 was the driver which brought the planet out of the Little Ice Age.

Magic didn’t bring us out of the LIA either. Here’s one well-known contributing factor to both the LIA and the rising temperature trends following it:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/itsi_wls_ann.png

If causality attributed to the graph’s correlation were correct and the physics is wrong, then any early 21st century warming would have continued in step with increase in CO2atm and there might have been a closer “fit” during other periods covered by the graph. Is that what happened?

It’s difficult to answer that question because it hinges on the implicit conclusion that the physics is wrong. Look at 1880-1920 and 1940-1980, and then look at this:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/iamo_hadsst.png

” the broad-sweeping, thinly evidenced (read:preposterous) allegations and insinuations of nefarious manipulation you are so fond of spewing…”
Really?

Yes, really. I don’t keep a tally, so perhaps I overstated. It’s a common enough theme in these parts and I do have my own prejudices working against me.

Alan Robertson

Brandon Gates

Just when I thought this was becoming an interesting discussion. Alas.

Alan Robertson

And there I was thinking that the linked song was exceedingly interesting (and ever so apropos.)
Mwahahaaa