Guest essay by Eric Worrall-
In 2013, NASA decided to take time out from creating spectacularly useless climate models, and reactivated their Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer programme. The result is moderately terrifying – 8 previously unknown near Earth asteroids with catastrophic impact potential have been discovered, along with a host of smaller bodies which have the potential to wipe out a city.
According to The Register;
In December 2013, NASA re-activated the Near-Earth Object Wide-field Survey Explorer (NEOWISE) and in the twelve months since the project discovered three new comets and 40 previously-unknown near-earth objects, eight of which have Earth-bonking potential.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/01/16/ninety_new_doom_asteroids_found_in_2014/
The JPL website contains more information about the discoveries of various space survey projects;
“WISE was launched into a low-Earth orbit in December 2009, and surveyed the full sky in four infrared wavelength bands (3.4, 4.6, 12 and 22 µm) with a 40 cm (16 in) diameter infrared telescope until the frozen hydrogen cooling the telescope was depleted in September 2010. Throughout this time, NEOWISE searched the WISE data for moving objects. Starting in October 2010, the mission was renamed NEOWISE, and the survey continued for an additional four months using the two shortest wavelength detectors. The spacecraft was placed into hibernation in February 2011, after completing its search of the inner solar system.
Recently, NEOWISE has been brought out of hibernation to learn more about the population of near-Earth objects and comets that could pose an impact hazard to the Earth. A three-year survey in the 3.4 and 4.6 µm infrared bands began in December 2013 in which NEOWISE will rapidly characterize near-Earth objects (NEOs) and obtain accurate measurements of their diameters and albedos (how much light an object reflects). NEOWISE is equally sensitive to both light-colored asteroids and the optically dark objects that are difficult for ground-based observers to discover and characterize. Just six days after the restart of the survey, NEOWISE discovered its first potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid, 2013 YP139.
The JPL data table is a little tricky to read, but if I’ve understood it correctly, you take the “H” value (absolute magnitude – a measure of “brightness”) from the asteroid table http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Dangerous.html , and look up that value in the diameter conversion chart, to get a range of possible diameters http://www.minorplanetcenter.net/iau/lists/Sizes.html . The diameter estimate is a range, because the size of the asteroid is not the only factor which affects the magnitude / brightness of the object.
YP139 has a “H” value of 21.6, which corresponds to a possible diameter of 130 – 300 metres.
To put this into perspective, the Chelyabinsk meteor which caused a 500 kiloton explosion over Russia in 2013 was estimated to be around 20 metres in diameter. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chelyabinsk_meteor A 300 metre object has the potential to cause (300 ^ 3 / 20 ^ 3) * 500 kilotons = 1.6 Gigaton explosion. An explosion of this magnitude, especially an ocean strike, could create gigantic Tsunamis, and would severely disrupt the global climate for several years, possibly longer.
Its nice to know that NASA occasionally takes a break from climate bothering, long enough to do something space related, but I’m mildly horrified that a project this important appears to be so far down the list of priorities, that the project was mothballed for a year while the survey satellite stood waiting for a refuel. Granted that a major Asteroid strike is a low probability event, but the consequences are potentially catastrophic – a big ocean strike could kill millions, maybe even billions of people.
As the Chelyabinsk wakeup call demonstrated, the risk of a damaging meteor impact is not a possibility which should be neglected.
Addendum- For the record, there are currently 1533 potentially hazardous near Earth Asteroids -Anthony
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Just enough time to rummage through the archives chaps-
Wonder how many more near Earth asteroids NASA Would have discovered if they had spent the money they wasted on the Global Warming SCAM looking for these potentially far more hazardous and life threating objects?
One note here. By definition the Russian bolide was a Near Earth Object, not possibly one.
I was trying to think of your name. How did the satellite “re-tasking” go (I have not seen an update, but I may have missed it)?
Patrick.
We recovered the spacecraft, recommissioned the instruments, but the nitrogen pressuring in the propulsion system was depleted, keeping us from capturing the spacecraft into Earth Orbit. It will return again in seven years.
The only practical way to divert these is with H-bombs but this isn’t even considered for political reasons. An H-bomb has never even been test exploded in space and is, in fact, illegal.
I don’t think the space police would arrest anyone if we used H-bombs to deflect an Earth-killing space object. If one of these objects was identified in time, and a sound plan was developed to deflect the object, but the plan was rejected for political reasons because the anti-nuk crowd complained about the dangers of launching nuclear weapons into space…well then we probably deserve to go extinct.
Well said.
We must act no! Let us spend billions each year trying to track these potential impactors. We must find ways to tackle climate changing asteroids. Insurance policy and all that blah, blah. Better safe than sorry blah, blah. Which Warmists will join me to protest at the lack of action to tackle climate changing asteroids?
“8 previously unknown near Earth asteroids with catastrophic impact potential have been discovered”
Hmm. Presumably the the guys with slide rules* can predict the course of these things very accurately, otherwise why bother? In which case they must know that none of these are going to hit us or they would have mentioned it. So no worries.
There is no point looking for any more unless we begin building the devices that might save us from them. Ten years advance warning that we need machines that take 11 years to develop is not much use.
Martin
*Ask your parents.
They can only accurately predict where these objects are going to be for 5 to 10 years out. The problem is that no matter how accurately you can place them now, there is always a degree of error in that number. Over time that margin of error grows until it is many times larger than the diameter of the earth. We have to find these objects so that they can be monitored so that periodic updates of their future orbits can be made. Beyond that, the more observations of them we have over the years, the more accurately we can plot their future orbits.
*Ask your parents.
I still have mine (slide rule).
My Pickett N4-T sits in the top right hand drawer of my desk at work. My backup Log-Log DeciTrig graces my desk at home.
AGW is not an existential threat; these things can be (as geologic history shows). Plenty of astroblemes are visible on Google Maps (esp. in the Canadian Shield of Quebec, like Clearwater Lakes and Manicouagan). Without weathering, plate tectonics, volcanism and a lot of water, Earth would be as pock-marked as the Moon. The bigger bell-ringers can cause megatsunamis (as is suspected w/the Burckle Crater propagating across thousands of miles of coastline), earthquakes (potentially disastrous at the point exactly opposite the globe from the impact site) and obviously other nasty stuff. I have long been disappointed by the small-thinking obsession with AGW by NASA etc when a fraction of the money spent on the AGW bogeyman could greatly increase our knowledge of potential hits. We may be the first species with the potential to a) see these coming; and b) be able to nudge them out of our way. The nudge potential seems a long way in the future, but could be the greatest justification for an extended human/technology presence throughout the Solar System. Would be nice to have an option other than ‘place your head between your knees and kiss your _ss goodbye’.
Ever noticed that the Coral Sea is a ring of islands centred on Herald Cay?
Look at the Hudson Bay coastline of Quebec – circular curves and maybe even the Gulf of Mexico (bent by plate tectonics
https://ca.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=B111CA662D20141029&p=map+of+Quebec
Another question is, “Would they tell us about it if they knew?” Do you tell the world that an Extinction Event is about to occur, or do you just do the usual SF scenario of “alert the important people, make secret plans to preserve knowledge, seed stock, animals, etc.” and let the hoi polloi go about their lives normally until the thing streaks across the sky?
In the movie “When Worlds Collide” there’s a scene in a swanky NYC restaurant where some of the in-the-know people are having a Last Dinner Out, and the hero lights a cigarette with a $100 bill, saying “I’ve always wanted to do that.” An elegant dowager at the next table turns up her nose at such crass goings-on, and I always thought that was an especially cruel scene. The poor old lady has led a life of ease and comfort, but you know darn well it’s going to end in desperate, hopeless terror, while these happy-go-lucky few are going to ride the big spaceship into the sky.
No guarantees there either, of course, but at least a chance, while the rest of Earth is pulverized.
@jamesS
funny, I did an article on this exact concept “would they tell” and the answer is clearly no.
http://nukeprofessional.blogspot.com/2012/10/would-they-tell.html
In the film “Melancholia”, one of the main characters looks up the world-shattering collision on the internet:
http://scifi.stackexchange.com/questions/19068/is-the-melancholia-dance-of-death-possible
At this point in the film, presumably the political elite are already on their way to Mars. 🙂
Satellite was not refueled, NASA can’t do that yet. Nor was the detector reloaded with hydrogen ‘coolant’. They are just using the remaining working detectors, which they could have been doing all along.
I know! One of the original design missions for the space shuttle that never came to pass.
Nasa doesn’t do spaceflight anymore. Nasa has no manned launch platforms left. Nasa is so pathetic that we have resorted to using 50 year old space junk from the russians to try and launch satellites, in which it performed about like you would expect 50 year old russian space junk to perform.
Whether its “climate change” or asteroids, all of this is just boogity-boo scaremongering to try and pretend that Nasa still has some function left which would justify all the hundreds of millions being pumped into it each year.
Abolish Nasa Now. It no longer has any real function, and it’s desperate thrashing around to try and hide that fact hurts all of us.
How often do catastrophic asteroids hit the earth? About once every 67 million years, according to the geological record. So say we’re at the end of that range, lets start really worrying about it in 100,000 years or so. Til then, how about we worry about the REAL problems we have, which everyone is scared to talk about?
The periodicity of major earth impacts is indeterminate, but is probably lengthening. Asteroids can hit something else, first, and there isn’t an endless supply of them. Many of the dangerous sort have already been swept from the solar system. We have no measure of the risk.
Since asteroid collisions are potentially world ending events perhaps we should shut down space activities such as the near useless space station, meaningless human trips to Mars, etc., and use the money for protecting the world from such collisions.
The best place to do that protecting from is a very large and very permanent space station.and defence platform. You can’t defend the planet from the bottom of a gravity well.
I had a big torus with the hittile, a series of detector stations and some mega laser platforms as part of a safety system, all in orbit. IIRC the Rough Magic chain was built to kick-start the economy after a big crash and depression.
Hmmm. Maybe I should suggest it to Europe.
JF
Lucifer Falling and Other Stories
[Rather, Lucifer’s Hammer? .mod]
Two stations. We need stereoptical capability. If the object is coming almost directly towards one station (the most dangerous situation), ν₂ ~ 0, and it’s impossible to calculate the orbital elements (a, e, i, Ω, ω and t) accurately. Perturbation would be significant, so we’ll need the best look we can get as early as possible.
Reblogged this on Jewish and Christian News.
Asteroids are the real threat, not global warming.
A substantial meteorite apparently hit the Baudouin ice shelf in Antarctica in 2004, as reported in the press about a week ago. It took the scientific community ten years to notice, although according to this story suspicions started to arise in 2007.
http://www.aol.com/article/2015/01/13/huge-circle-in-an-antarctic-ice-shelf-hints-meteor-impact/21129098/
No need to get in a twist over asteroids as these have stable (more or less) orbits.
It is believed that most of the big cosmic impacts have been due to comets. The Siberian event of about one hundred ya is best explained as a small comet that had been depleted of volatiles.
The reason that comets are most likely to be the giant impactors of the past is due to their orbits, which are such that these intersect the earth’s orbit.
Also, E=MV^2, remember? So the velocity of the impactor (bolide) has more to due with the force of the impact than actual mass. Such velocities are estimated to range from ~5 miles per second to over 50 miles per second, relative to the earth.
So it is fatuous to flatly declare that impactor of X size=Y force.
It might be possible that some unknown traveler, coming from who knows where, could randomly whiz through the asteroid belt, playing croquet and plinko, with a side game of snooker. Not much to be done about that.
Yes, it is allowed that comets passing through the asteroid belt have done just that, hence the loose assortment of _meteroids_ drifting hither and yon through the solar system.
Note that the post refers to asteroids when it should use the term meteoroids. There is a continual rain of cosmic debris upon the earth, from dust size upward. [Sieving] deep ocean sediments yields stainless steel micro spheres (nickel/iron). The reddish tinge of the deserts such as in Australia is due to the cosmic dust. The trace isotope 3He is taken as a proxy for comet activity, and this agrees with the high number of very large impact craters dating from the latter Eocene, the Chesapeake Bay impact being one.
mpainter:
I think you’re trying define comets, meteoroids and asteroids as isolated types of objects.
They’re not. The asteroid belt is ‘believed’ to be the remains from a proto planet or failed planet formation. Comets are proposed as Keiper belt objects, which are also remnants from star/planet formation.
The Keiper belt and beyond are truly beyond our current abilities, unless you want to count V’ger and it’s eight bit radio transmission at 1960s standards. We have a lot of guesses and a little hard information.
Scientists are eager to study objects in the asteroid belt because they believe that there they can research and learn about comets and asteroids, giving insights to many planetary bodies.
Earth, Sol and it’s attendant solar system orbit in a low star density arm of the Milky Way galaxy. Even within this low star density, Sol interacts with near neighbors.
Inclusive in these neighbors are failed dwarf stars, brown dwarfs, planetoids and a seeming endless supply of other ‘oids’.
A large object orbiting the Milky Way galaxy yet transiting near our solar system will interact, if weakly, with our solar system. Worse, that object will act to seriously mix ‘oids outside our Keiper belt and send many of them to visit the Earth.
When they’re aimed at Earth, minor distinctions like does it have a tail, all ‘oids are dangerous.
Some people believe that giant rocky or metal could be the most devastating with their huge molar mass impacting the Earth.
Others wonder about those giant balls of frozen volatiles. Atmospheric friction heats the exterior to UV emission levels until either the giant ball of hydrogen (quite likely, with a sufficient supply of oxygen to be frightening) implodes/explodes or the object impacts the surface to spread superheated gases in all directions. Think napalm only with hydrogen as the fuel instead of jellied gasoline.
The latter might leave the least of the impact craters meaning the Earth directly absorbed a very small part of the impact and the atmosphere took the brunt.
OK, maybe sea levels went up by a half millimeter from all of the new fresh water…
I’m not trying to define squat; it’s already defined as you would see if you would read up. You could, for example, learn how to spell Kuiper.
at those velocities that pesky 1/2 on the energy term does become a little redundant. (E=1/2 MV^2) but at least it will give the right order of magnitude in most cases.
They (NASA) have admitted to only finding 1% of the NEO that could obliterate a major city
Given many of the eviros pushing CAGW think that the world is over populated maybe there’s an inherent logic in their rationale of lowering the priority of calamitous asteroid impact research!
For a fascinating account of a supposed ice age cosmic impact, search Saginaw Bay/ Carolina Bays cosmic impact.
Creating and sending a space probe with the ability to move the impactor so that it will not strike the earth can be done fairly quickly assuming 2 conditions:
(1) the method of diversion is “gravity tractor”
(2) the impactor is far enough out that the gravity tractor has time to work
But it took 2+ years of flight time to get ONE, very small satellite to even INTERSECT a comet’s orbit and rendevous close.
Then a couple of months of effort just to “touch” that comet.
And the satellite landing failed, the “drill” failed, and the satellite power supplies failed.
So, you’re going to claim that a “gravity pull” device can get designed, made, launched and delivered “fairly quickly”?
Get launched from what vehicle into orbit, then into the right path to intersect?
And, how many tons are needed on the device if the impact of a 10 ton, or a 120 ton, asteroid will be within 24 months); when you need 6 months of flight plus 6-18 months of “movement” off of earth’s orbit?
Why not an impacting nuclear device(s) to begin breaking the boulder up, begin changing the vector of each of the smaller pieces? Each blast by itself will probably not be enough. Each blast, by itself, will not be as effective as in the earth’s atmosphere, or within the comet/asteroid itself. But each does it part to move the whole.
Yeah, I have a Ford farm tractor. It does all kinds of ‘gravity’ stuff with the backhoe and bucket. It even has a tractor beam! 🙂
I may be wrong but I think they only care BECAUSE of the impact it has on the environment. I don’t think they care about the human/infrastructure damage.
but I am VERY jaded.
Reblogged this on Sierra Foothill Commentary and commented:
A few mm of sea Level rise, maybe the smallest of disasters that coastal cities need to worry about.
OK, so most of these objects burn up in the atmosphere before hitting the surface. I think that the obvious answer is to make the atmosphere larger/denser.
If only there was some harmless gas that we could emit in large quantities to accomplish this.
Good one MarkS.
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
Now here’s something worth worrying about, rather than a trace gas that functions mostly as plant food. If people worried about human survival were serious, they’d be pushing for more money to track and possibly deflect dangerous asteroids.
The only thing more disconcerting than a possible meteor strike would be depending on NASA to do something about it. Since Apollo it is apparent that NASA is nothing more than another incompetent wasteful bureacracy staffed by people who couldn’t get a real job. Let’s review, 2 shuttle disasters using a system to deliver satellites that cost twice as much as conventional launchers, Hubble Telescope that required a repair mission because they didn’t check the optics, probe sent whose antenna wouldn’t open. This doesn’t count how many employees they have like Hansen. Even if it was possible to deflect an impact, depending on NASA to implement reduces the odds of succuess by at least half at twice as much cost.
Spot on Billyjack. Especially since Obama redefined the mission of NASA to technology and assisting Muslim nations of the world.
I will say this an asteroid impact is much more a threat then the hoax of AGW ,and this is the area NASA needs to devote their resources to.
A future asteroid impact probability is 100% and it would be serious the question is when not if. As far as AGW the probability of this materializing is 0% and of having a serious impact is 0%.
Does anyone here want to take bets on whether or not someone writes a piece linking these identified flying objects with global warming?
.
Perhaps global warming will be claimed to be pulling them toward Earth .. or maybe they will hit the Earth and that will cause more global warming … or maybe they will pass near the Earth and the resulting “friction with our atmosphere” will cause more global warming?
.
These are non-scientific wild guesses, however if they had been projections from a climate change game in a REALLY BIG COMPUTER, the leftists would certainly believe them!
Hotter planet means taller atmosphere, thus snagging more asteroids = it’s all your fault. TAX!