Claim: Average temperature in Finland has risen by more than two degrees

I looked at a number of Finnish weather stations in the GISTEMP database, and many of them suffer from step changes like the one below and/or data gaps, so I don’t put much stock in the claim as being anything more than an observational artifact that they have not dealt with effectively.

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=614029740000&dt=1&ds=14

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=614029740000&dt=1&ds=14

See also my peer reviewed paper on the claim of extra heat related deaths due to “global warming” in nearby Stockholm:

New skeptic publication in Nature Climate Change rebuts Åström et al. claims of increased deaths due to heat waves

A good example of a step change artifact in the temperature record is in Tromo:

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=634010250000&dt=1&ds=14

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/show_station.cgi?id=634010250000&dt=1&ds=14

One wonders if the authors simply used all the weather stations in Finland without regard to their data quality. I don’t have time today to evaluate it all but perhaps readers will have a go, since the PDF is available as open source, which is a credit to the authors.


 

PRESS RELEASE: According to a recent University of Eastern Finland and Finnish Meteorological Institute study, the rise in the temperature has been especially fast over the past 40 years, with the temperature rising by more than 0.2 degrees per decade. “The biggest temperature rise has coincided with November, December and January. Temperatures have also risen faster than the annual average in the spring months, i.e., March, April and May. In the summer months, however, the temperature rise has not been as significant,” says Professor Ari Laaksonen of the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Institute. As a result of the temperature rising, lakes in Finland get their ice cover later than before, and the ice cover also melts away earlier in the spring. Although the temperature rise in the actual growth season has been moderate, observations of Finnish trees beginning to blossom earlier than before have been made.

Temperature has risen in leaps

The annual average temperature has risen in two phases, the first being from the beginning of the observation period to the late 1930s, and the second from the late 1960s to present. Since the 1960s, the temperature has risen faster than ever before, with the rise varying between 0.2 and 0.4 degrees per decade. Between the late 1930s and late 1960s, the temperature remained nearly steady. “The stop in the temperature rise can be explained by several factors, including long-term changes in solar activity and post-World War II growth of human-derived aerosols in the atmosphere. When looking at recent years’ observations from Finland, it seems that the temperature rising is not slowing down,” University of Eastern Finland researcher Santtu Mikkonen explains.

The temperature time series was created by averaging the data produced by all Finnish weather stations across the country. Furthermore, as the Finnish weather station network wasn’t comprehensive nation-wide in the early years, data obtained from measurement stations in Finland’s neighbouring countries was also used.

Finland is located between the Atlantic Ocean and the continental Eurasia, which causes great variability in the country’s weather. In the time series of the average temperature, this is visible in the form of strong noise, which makes it very challenging to detect statistically significant trends. The temperature time series for Finland was analysed by using a dynamic regression model. The method allows the division of the time series into sections indicating mean changes, i.e. trends, periodic variation, observation inter-dependence and noise. The method makes it possible to take into consideration the seasonal changes typical of Nordic conditions, as well as significant annual variation.

###

S. Mikkonen, M. Laine, H. M. Mäkelä, H. Gregow, H. Tuomenvirta, M. Lahtinen, A. Laaksonen Trends in the average temperature in Finland, 1847’2013

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, Online First, 17 Dec 2014

DOI: 10.1007/s00477-014-0992-2 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00477-014-0992-2

Full PDF: http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/96/art%253A10.1007%252Fs00477-014-0992-2.pdf?auth66=1419294105_93e936f512a2c987460f69cc3712d3ad&ext=.pdf

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134 thoughts on “Claim: Average temperature in Finland has risen by more than two degrees

  1. Why was a model even in the equation? You have data, analyze it. There should be dancing in the streets because the biggest increases have been in the Winter!

      • I enjoyed the various replies.
        But it seems to me that, perhaps, we need to define just what is a “model”.
        The first “model” I ever built was a P-51 Black Widow. While it did have twin nacelles, it didn’t require a bra and there was nothing humbug about it’s combat record.
        Some engineers build scale models of they are testing, say a building, scaling the strength and stresses the real thing might experience.
        Computer programs are used similar design testing. Then a prototype is actually built to see if it performs as expected.
        Is putting data points on a graph a globe a model? My understanding is only when the data is extrapolated to predict or project the future.
        In the context of climate science, a computer generated climate model is one where something is entered into the extrapolation that will influence the future to the extent the programmer thinks it will.
        The programmer may be right or he may be wrong or there may other influences under or over represented or not represented at all.
        As I’ve said before, I’m just a layman, one of may that visit this site.
        Those of you who aren’t “layman”, am I in the ball park?

        • “The programmer may be right or he may be wrong or there may other influences under or over represented or not represented at all.
          As I’ve said before, I’m just a layman, one of may that visit this site.
          Those of you who aren’t “layman”, am I in the ball park?”
          If the subject is well known, then it shouldn’t matter, but as the level of complexity or level of abstraction increases, the more you have to worry about it.So yes in the ball park.
          I spent over 15 years supporting, creating models for, and validating electronic design simulations on 10 or 12 different simulators. I was the guy who had to take some customers trick circuit, model it, then explain what the results are and why they were what they were. If I didn’t do a good job, we lost business.

      • Cart before horse I’m afraid.
        First the data (how can one analyze without data), then
        the analysis (how can one build a model without analysis) then
        the model then
        the model run then
        the comparison to actuals then
        more analysis
        then the redesign of the model
        reiterate until model run approxes to actuals then
        the model forecast then
        wait 15 years to see if model forecast = close to actuals
        If it does the model may be useful – may be!
        If not throw away model and start again.
        Persons in ivory towers may have different views but this is how it works in real world. Models in the context of climate forecasting are just computer programs that at best embody some good guesses about how climate actually works.

        • “Models in the context of climate forecasting are just computer programs that at best embody some good guesses about how climate actually works.”
          Might work.

    • Without sun those 10 extra degrees would just mean darker winters with less snow, more disease and annoying insects. I’ll take my -30 degrees Celsius and enjoy it.

  2. so the average temperature in Finland has gone from what, 2C to 4C? And we are to believe that people are dying in the streets from this heat wave? That because of the searing temperatures, ice will no longer grow in Finland, endangering their all important export crop, bringing the economy of Finland to its knees?
    you would think that on hearing the good news, the people of Finland would be dancing in the street. Their climate has gone from “way too cold”, to “way too cold”.

    • Here is their abstract. They note that since the end of the LITTLE ICE AGE mean temperature in FINLAND has risen. I find this quite surprising. :-p

      Abstract
      The change in the mean temperature in Finland is investigated with a dynamic linear model in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 166 years. The data consists of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in the temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the model. Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen very likely over 2 °C in the years 1847–2013, which amounts to 0.14 °C/decade. The warming after the late 1960s has been more rapid than ever before. The increase in the temperature has been highest in November, December and January. Also spring months (March, April, May) have warmed more than the annual average, but the change in summer months has been less evident. The detected warming exceeds the global trend clearly, which matches the postulation that the warming is stronger at higher latitudes.
      http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00477-014-0992-2

      In the above WUWT post they say due to lack of stations in the early years they used data from nearby countries. They also say the lake ice breaks up earlier. Here is a nearby weather event last spring.

      05 Apr 2013
      Late-season freeze sets Baltic ice record
      Ice breakers navigating the Gulf of Bothnia have been astounded at the record spread of ice on the Baltic Sea, while scientists say they have never seen anything like it.
      “Since record keeping began in the sixties, we’ve never encountered anything like this before,” ice breaker Ulf Gulldne told the local newspaper Örnsköldsviks Allehanda……
      “The cold is unusually stubborn, as normally the ice would have started to melt by now,” said Torbjörn Grafström at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI)….
      http://web.archive.org/web/20140809033729/http://www.thelocal.se/20130405/47154
      http://www.thelocal.se/20130405/47154

  3. “Professor Ari Laaksonen of the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Institute. As a result of the temperature rising, lakes in Finland get their ice cover later than before, and the ice cover also melts away earlier in the spring. Although the temperature rise in the actual growth season has been moderate, observations of Finnish trees beginning to blossom earlier than before have been made.”
    The trees are in on the “hoax”
    Finland represents .22% of the surface of the earth.
    warming is not homogeneous and not monotonic. you can tell absolutely nothing by looking at one small area of land.
    In the grand scheme of things, yes we expect the northern latitudes to warm FASTER, regardless of the cause.

    • As the norse graves in Greenland slowly thaw out of the permafrost now, we learn about previous catastrophic man made global warming/climate change/climate weirding.
      The ‘grand scheme of things’ is a foothold civilization was achieved because of prior causes of ‘catastrophic global warming’ and it was catastrophic global cooling that forced that tentatively thriving agrarian population to get frozen out.

    • Agree, but I support the Finnish Meteorological Institute as far as the temperature rise is concerned. Same thing in Norway. Aprox 1.5-2.0 degrees higher since 1850. Finland has no coast toward the Atlantic like Norway. That is why Finland got even more warming than stations in Norway. A lot of stations in Norway are influenced by the North Atlantic and temperature change are moderate either way. Inland areas are always warming or cooling most.

    • But but but Mann used a dataset of proxy data from 12 trees, in particular YAD061, from a small area of land and claimed it proved man was changing the climate. And the IPCC, Govn’t and the media fell for it!

      • But that was because Steven was not their to tell him or the IPCC that “warming is not homogeneous and not monotonic. you can tell absolutely nothing by looking at one small area of land.”
        PS. I am not disagreeing with this particular part of Steven’s comments.

      • So, with his knowledge and apparent access to media etc, why wasn’t he making this known to those that are in the positions to make our lives worse?
        “The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.”
        Edmund Burke

      • Maybe it is the case that in the arctic there are some temperature changes and given that Mann used data from a similar region the hockey stick is in fact correct but totally unrepresentative of the planet earth.
        One Finland does not make a CAGW.
        My concern is the emergence of a temperature fall as may already be happening. Witness arctic recovery and other anecdotal evidence reported and elsewhere.
        Good early warning maybe.

    • Well yes, obviously you can tell nothing by looking at one small area of land. Unfortunately in climate science politics of both sides this happens all the time. Recently no where more evident than in the extreme weather industry.
      BTW the northern latitudes are regional slices and why would warming be bad for a particularly cold region. Sure the eco-system would change, but from a pedestrian point of view, probably for the better.

  4. Well the reported temperatures for Finland to my knowledge are as non-scientific temperatures as those for Stockholm after 1860:
    Swedish text for Stockholm:
    ”Vår rekonstruktion av vinter- och vårtemperaturens variationer över ett halvt årtusende visas i bild 1. Mätningarna efter 1860 är korrigerade för den artificiella uppvärmning som orsakats av staden Stockholms tillväxt, så att kurvan visar de mer naturliga förändringarna.” Source: Forskning och Framsteg nr 5 2008, 500 års väder.”
    Quick English Translation using Google Translate: “Our reconstruction of the winter and vårtemperaturens variations over half a millennium shown in Figure 1. The measurements for 1860 are corrected for the artificial warming caused by the city of Stockholm’s growth, so that the curve shows the more natural change source: Forskning och Framsteg no 5 2008, 500 years weather
    [Forskning och Framsteg = Research and Progress, a science journal…..] 🙂
    What they done? They have used figures from Uppsala (inlands) on Stockholm (close to the Lake Maelaren with many islands of Stockholm in the Baltic Sea…) and after that, they have corrected even more before using models… 🙂 I have seen a like corrections for Helsinki (close to the Baltic Sea) can’t find the source note for the moment.
    When will they ever learn.

    • Dear Norah,
      Thank you for yet another excellent, well-documented, comment. I ALWAYS think that when read what you write (or enjoy your wry sense of humor in your quips and chuckle over them). Now, I am finally saying so.
      (thanks to two nice guys who changed my attitude this evening from grim to gay <— well, is that term COMPLETELY dead as to meaning "merry"…. ?? (smile) thus, focusing outward on others instead of inward … (ugh)).
      Take care up there (assuming you are at home in Skandihoovianland) and Merry…. er Gay…. er… Blithe Chr…er Holidays! 🙂
      Janice

      • Thanks for the nice words. Couldn’t missed being informed in this field of science. My father, died almost 93 years old 2008, was one of the world’s first four specialists working full time with the part dealing with Environmental problems, air and water, used to have me as his assistent from age 7……
        read almost all there is to be read written in Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, English, French, German and Dutch….
        Humor makes the world happier. One can’t be sad all the time for problems re. Clean Water and Clean Air – those are the true problems of Environment. But that’s an other question.

      • Yes, indeed, Ms. Norah.
        Also, very impressive achievement on your part in addition to your dad’s genes and his excellent training. I walk away from my computer tonight a bit more humble.
        Good for you! Your dad must have been so proud of you. Oh, I KNOW he was… I just hope he told you so.
        Keep on posting!
        #(:))

  5. Given that Finland was traumatized repeatedly since 1900, by two world wars, plus a Russian revolution as well as invasion in between, some gaps in the records seem understandable.
    That aside, the data does show an ongoing upward temperature drift, somewhat surprising given the apparent up and down fluctuations in Arctic temperatures and sea ice reported over that interval.
    It would be a massive job to try to reconcile these various records, but surely worth while.

  6. I would be willing to wager that, like so many other “averages” that Finland has not gotten 2 degrees C warmer but 2 degrees LESS COLD. Many areas show NO trend in maximum or maximum mean temperatures; but we see less cold minimum mean temperatures resulting in a rising trend in the average while all that has happened is less cold. But that has been commented on hear many times before. The problem with averages. Like average rainfall, the average doesn’t actually tell you about seasonality and many other factors in climate.

  7. Always wondered about accuracy of instruments 20, 40, 60, 80, 100+ years ago. Absent accurate instruments reliance has to be on modeled adjustments and that forces us to rely on intellectual honesty of the research. Which we know is in serious question.

    • As for the graph on top of this page labeled Helsinki/Seutula one should be aware that the place is better known as Helsinki International Airport. According to data from FMI, the weather station is situated smack in the middle of the three runways. The description of the stations surroundings waxes poetic: forest with small bogs and rocky hills… No mention of the airport.

  8. It would be interesting to hear what temperature researcher Frank Lansner has to say about this.
    (lol — mostly likely the Danes (of which Lansner is one) would say that it is just those exhibitionist Finns trying to get attention… and the Finns would just snort and look away in disdain… and the Danes would just laugh… Skandinavians are FUN :)… I’ve known a few… hm… wait a minute. Nope. They are NOT all “fun.” Some of them are very, very, VERY, serious. And that is ALL they are, lol… which tends to get them laughed at ….. which they do a very good job of pointedly ignoring.)
    BUT WHO COULD HELP BUT LAUGH AT THE ABOVE “METHOD”**???!!!
    (**”Method”: computer code written to produce the results the authors want.)
    In the meantime, until Mr. Lansner arrives, here are a couple of his articles:
    1. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/08/01/a-comparison-of-adjusted-vs-unadjusted-surface-data/
    2. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/06/the-original-temperatures-project/
    (Note: He writes excellent English, but, that is not his first language. In other words, please overlook grammatical and other language-based errors — he is a conscientious researcher and an exceptionally bright man.)
    ****************************
    On another note…
    I tried to read the post sent from WUWT to my In Box this morning in which Josh wished us all a “Happy Christmas.” The website (wattsupwiththat.com) said that post was no longer available — it had JUST been sent.
    Are we not even allowed to say “Happy Christmas”??? Or…. what?
    Well,

    MERRY CHRISTMAS!

    (that was a test — let’s see if it gets censored…)

    • Here’s wishing YOU the Merriest of Christmas… and a Joy filled New Year, Sweet Pea!
      And a little snow down to 500′ ASL would be nice….
      Mac

      • Aw, Mackie, thanks. I needed someone to say something sweet to me tonight. You are very kind to take the time.
        I hope that you are enjoying the traditional Christmas, er, “Holiday” (heh) break the (blank) Company has given its employees for many years.
        Take care and MERRY CHRISTMAS! {<—- if there is just a blank and a "snip" there, it was a two-word greeting commonly said in a jovial manner at this time of year… ;)},
        Janice
        P.S. After reading of your health concerns (no details given — don't worry, you didn't tell us THAT much…), I've been praying.

      • Janice,
        No one can sensor ‘Peace On Earth, Goodwill To Man!’ I make it my personal mission in the month of December to bring at least a small joy to one or more of the folks I interact with each day. (I try to do this every day of the year… but December gets special attention, ’cause He’s Makin A List… And Checkin It TWICE!)
        I’m just back from a round trip to Aurora OR today, having picked up a ‘quick build’ fuselage kit for an airplane I’m building (Merry Christmas to ME!), had a small scotch ‘n water, and decided to ‘spread the cheer’! As for health issues, I’m upright, substantially above room temperature, and frisky enough to keep folks around me wondering “What’s Next?” ! That’s a good thing….
        Mac
        PS: You are in my prayers, to find the job of your desires! I haven’t forgotten….
        I can’t help much, as my division is ‘reorganizing’, we are reducing head count, and have a 2 year moratorium on hiring. There ARE opportunities on the commercial side however. Two major new development programs need many composites, metallurgical, and process engineers to support them, both in Everett and Renton. Look for posting in the New Year.
        PPS: Let’s honor The Reason For The Season! Enjoy!
        http://youtu.be/eF0hye4bBd4

  9. I read an unsigned story on this topic published by the AFP this morning. The lead sentence: “Stockholm (AFP) – Temperatures in Finland rose almost twice as fast as in the rest of the world over the past 166 years, meteorologists said Monday, supporting claims global warming hits higher altitudes hardest.”
    The article doesn’t say exactly at what ALTITUDE Finland is located, but this “higher altitudes warming” certainly complicates the predicament of the Finnish people with regard to rising sea levels. Maybe they’re happy about it.
    The full article at:
    http://news.yahoo.com/temperature-rising-faster-finland-anywhere-else-223524053.html

    • They must mean ATTITUDE.
      I read Janice Moore’s comment just above. She is the inspiration.
      (and Merry Christmas to you too, Janice)

      • John “The also serve who only stand and wait” Hultquist!
        #(:))
        You Washington guys are SO KIND. Thank you!
        I really needed that (and the John Milton quote which seeing your name brought to mind — I have been “standing and waiting” for so long………aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa. There. Now, I feel better, lol).
        Take care, dear Mr. Hultquist.
        Merry Christmas to you and may 2015 be your (and Nancy’s, too!) best year, so far,
        Janice
        P.S. Loved the UFO — good point…. but…. but….. BUT IT WAS PUBLISHED, SO… IT — IS — THE– TRUTH! heh

      • A Sybot! #(:))
        MERRY CHRISTMAS to YOU! (this is so much fun!!)
        And, OF COURSE IT WAS PEER REVIEWED — WHAT ISN’T? lololol
        Janice

  10. This is one of the worst things about this scam. Yes, they want more money. Yes, they are willing to kill the elderly over fuel costs. Yes. they are willing to bastardize science but they have ruined our temperature record. We have no record now.

  11. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that paper. They used homogenized data and they evidently didn’t use all the Finnish stations. They claim they started with six stations and slowly increased as the years passed. A lot of stations must not have been suitable for their purpose. The International Surface Temperature Initiative(ISTI) database has these stations which already existed in 1835 and still exist in 2013. Their data is mostly complete right from the beginning. I couldn’t find a list of stations they used to see if they used any of these.
    ID,Latitude,Longitude, Elevation, Name
    FI000000304 60.1667 24.95 4 HELSINKI_KAISANIEMI_AWS
    FIE00142080 60.3269 24.9603 51 VANTAA_HELSINKI-VANTAAN_LENTOA
    FIE00142090 60.1 24.9167 5 HELSINKI_KATAJALUOTO
    FIE00142096 60.1831 24.8331 2 ESPOO_OTANIEMI
    FIE00142101 60.2 24.9167 47 HELSINKI_ILMALA
    FIE00142111 60.2667 24.9667 14 HELSINGIN_MLK_TAMMISTO
    FIE00142185 60.1044 24.9783 3 HELSINKI_HARMAJA
    FIE00142226 60.2028 24.9642 24 HELSINKI_KUMPULA
    FIE00142235 60.1714 24.9478 3 HELSINKI_RAUTATIENTORI
    FIE00142241 60.2531 25.0481 15 HELSINKI-MALMIN_LENTOASEMA
    FIE00142246 60.1331 25 10 VALLISAARI
    FIE00142251 60.2167 25.0331 8 HELSINKI_VIIKIN_KOETILA
    FIE00142296 60.2 25.0831 22 HELSINKI_MARJANIEMI
    FIE00142311 60.1042 25.0708 4 HELSINKI_ISOSAARI
    FIE00142320 60.2 25.0494 5 HELSINKI_HERTTONIEMI
    Their paper also says they peaked at 179 stations in the 1970’s. ISTI shows Finland with more than 200 stations in the 1970s reaching a peak of more than 270 circa 2005.

  12. A Finnish heatwave is an unusually cold day here on the bottom edge of the tropics. Even if this is true, the correct response is to celebrate. I’m pretty sure they’ll adapt.

  13. Finland represents .22% of the surface of the earth.
    warming is not homogeneous and not monotonic. you can tell absolutely nothing by looking at one small area of land.
    [Steven Mosher December 22, 2014 at 4:52 pm]
    Measurements are taken at a tiny area, likely representing a volume about the size of the seating area at your average McDonalds, then extrapolated (smeared) over a surface of hundreds of square miles. What could possibly go wrong? Nothing apparently, for because of these astonishingly accurate numbers Europe and the USA intend to trash both landscape and economy, and try to force others to accept permanent impoverishment. Gives one a warm fuzzy feeling.

  14. There is a post here with a map that lets you see unadjusted GHCN station trends over various periods. It shows fairly uniform rising trrends over Finland and most of Europe. Examples 1977-2012:
    Jyvaskyla 5°C/cen
    Helsinki 6.5°C/cen
    Jokoionen 5.55°C/cen
    Haparanda 7.98°C/cen (sweden, border)
    Sodankyla 6.86°C/cen
    Turku 4.5°C/cen

  15. This “study” is a known trick:As the temperature of Finland is now exactly the same as in the 1930:s, our warmists use smoke and mirrors to make public believe in climate change.FMI:s ,Finnish meteorological institute’s own pages tell interesting facts:Go to “Ilmatieteenlaitos” pages, there “Ilmasto”, then “vuositilastot”, and there “Sodankylä and Helsinki”-chart.Those red and blue lines.They show no warming for 80 or so years.So, as You can see, even Finnish croocks are basically honest…
    Timo Kuusela Vantaa Finland

    • Thank you for that insightful and WELL INFORMED comment, Mr. Kuusela.
      Here is a link that might help us find that “Sodankyla and Helsinki” chart… but I stopped my research here (too tired, sorry):
      http://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/web-tools-workshop
      And… Hyvää joulua ja … onnellista uutta vuotta!
      Your American Ally for Truth,
      Janice
      #(:))

    • And so we have more “smoke and mirrors” from the data keepers. More dubious science from the dubious scientists.

  16. Helsinki/Seutula is the international airport nowadays called Helsinki/Vantaa. Look at the airport’s history https://www.finavia.fi/en/helsinki-airport/in-brief/history/ and of course there must be historical records of the weather station.
    The starting point is also interesting because in 1866-1868 there was a famine in Finland. 8% of the population died. It was cold and harvest was weak. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finnish_famine_of_1866%E2%80%9368.

  17. At least there is same kind of graph from Finnish Meteorological Institute:
    http://ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/vuositilastot
    It is from Helsinki-Kaisaniemi, not Helsinki-Seutula, but anyhow there is step somwhere 1988-9. I suppose data here is direct from Finnish database.
    I myself live now about 25 from Seutula airport but was not here at 1989.
    I think it is possible that the temperature step is real and not an artifact.

  18. I’m from Finland. I do remember my childhood winters when there was always snow. These days we don’t get as reliable snow on the coast any more. So yes, there is a change. However, it’s impossible to tell the reason as Finnish weather is very unpredictable.
    If we have southern winds, we have a warm winter with little or no snow. If we get eastern or nothern winds, we have a cold winter. Our winter temperatures do depend a lot on the weather. It’s not like our -15C winters have become -13C winters thanks to CO2. It’s more like 0C or -15C. Nobody knows if we’ll have -20C or 0C in a few weeks.
    Last winter was warm with practically no snow. The two winters before those we had bitter colds and a lot of snow. Trying to find a AGW signal from this mess is pointless. But as the Finnish Met Institute has its own Climate Change Department, of course they are wasting time trying to find that signal.

    • “… wasting time” spending YOUR hard earned money… .
      Thanks for sharing, Vieras. You may have noticed (if you have read WUWT very often) that most comments go unacknowledged… even some of the finest. Just wanted you to know that yours was read and appreciated. And so will be your comments in the future…. even if no one says so!
      #(:))
      Keep on commenting and (yawn) have a good Tuesday… I will… in about 6 hours….,
      Janice

      • Thank you Janice. The only good thing of that study is that over 2C increase. That sends us right over the famous CAGW limit. So Finland will supposedly now be in huge trouble and receive billions worth of Climate Aid. Yay!

    • As Vieras says, it has become more “unpredictable”. The cold and stable winters are gone, except for some years. No doubt about that. The main reason for the sudden anomaly starting in the nineties is change in wind pattern and pressure position. Long lasting high pressures are more seldom over Scandinavia+Finland nowadays. With normal winter temperatures no global warming…

  19. It seems that those FMI pages are also in english, so it makes things a bit strange:The pages are different in english, so if You want to see temperature history, it can only be tracked down in finnish.I think that I retract that “basically honest” thing…So :Ilmatieteen laitos – Ilmasto (climate) – Vuositilastot (temperature history) – Sodankylä , Helsinki .That shows the trick they used.

    • This is the page, just scroll down to the chart “Vuosikeskilämpötilat Helsingissä ja Sodankylässä”
      http://ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/vuositilastot
      Annual variation in Finland is great. The list of warmest years in Sodankylä, Lapland, still shows 1938 as the warmest year since 1900….by a margin of 0.8 degrees C compared to the runner-up year 2011.
      That aside, the trend seems to be that winter arrives later and spring starts earlier. You can notice it clearly.
      Btw, someone in the comments mentioned that we Finns should be worried about sea level rise. Well, due to glacial isostatic adjustment, Finland elevation goes up 3-8 mm/year. Lucky us 🙂

  20. OK, now it seems that FMI is perhaps changing those Finnish pages too as I have reminded people in Finnish media about them, so enjoy while it lasts…That red line is Helsinki with it’s UHI and the blue is Sodankylä.Below them is the rain chart.”Vuosisademäärä” is “yearly rain”.

    • Actually there was a ~2C step-change at several Fenno-Scandinavian stations in the early 1920s IIRC. Backward causation in time?
      Merry Christmas everyone from the Land of Under where my broad beans are later than they have ever been (bean?). Fortunately the French beans in the greenhouse are doing well 🙂

    • Roha, you are right!
      Actually at 1860’s 7 % of Finnish population died becauce of cold weather.
      In 1940 Couple thosand Ukraine (Russian)soldiers froze to death at Raatteentie near Kajaani city.
      In 1987 we had extremely cold winter here in Finland causing extreme problems to infrastructure.
      So, yes. Climate is OK now… but it seems that we are going back to cold phase again 🙁

    • Yes ,the Finnish FMI states that the temperature has risen over 2 degrees C in 166 years.In plain English.While finnish language pages show that the temperature has not risen for about 80 years.So ,what can we figure out of that…?

  21. In “Original Temperatures Sweden and Norway”
    http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/posts/original-temperatures-sweden-and-norway-280.php
    Also Northern Finland is represented in “area 1 and 2”:
    Here area B1 incl stations from North Finland:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/AORIT/Sweden/19.gif
    Certainly not 2 K warming.
    And then RUTI Scandinavia that shows Finland directly using GHCN v2 raw and Nordklim:
    http://hidethedecline.eu/pages/ruti/europe/scandinavia.php
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/ARUTI/Europe/Scandinavia/fig20.jpg
    http://hidethedecline.eu/media/ARUTI/Europe/Scandinavia/fig21.jpg
    Southern Finland perhaps with slightly more warming than Northern Finland, but again, certainly NOT 2 K.

  22. Raw data for Helsinki temperatures between 1829-2014 is available here: http://www.findikaattori.fi/en/table/66.
    To my understanding the data before 1950’s is from Helsinki Kaisaniemi (city centrum) and data after that is from Helsinki Seutula (airport), but I’m not sure about that.
    We can see that for each of the season the warmest years are as follows:
    – Winter 1925
    – Spring: 1921
    – Summer: 2011
    – Autumn: 1967

  23. And, oh the irony:FMI’s pages in english, the page “Observations” there is a picture of a weather station.It is the Kumpula station, near FMI’s offices.Also near are all of those University buildings, parking lots and a barren rock hill, so it has heat sources all around it.Those fools picked the one of the worst examples of all Finnish weather stations, but who knows how bad the all others actually are.
    The Director General of FMI is Petteri Taalas.He is also a WWF guy, and his comments are straight from Sceptical Science and Open Mind.Naturally he has selected his cronies well…So ,as it seems to be a worldwide propblem. our meteorological institute too is run by warmist a%&holes that feed the media with disinformation and propaganda.But we Finns have that Sisu thing:I will never give up.I will be a thorn in their side.There are more of us every day.

    • I will never give up. I will be a thorn in their side. There are more of us every day.

      Timo Churchill Kuusela!
      Oh, yes, indeed!
      And TRUTH IS WINNING! #(:))

  24. As Kelvin says, there is a definite sharp rise in most Europena datasets in the late 1980’s.
    At the same time, in the UK, there is a sharp rise in sunshine hours, which has been associated with much reduced air pollution.
    http://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/12/21/has-increased-sunshine-caused-uk-warming-in-late-20thc/
    It is often claimed that the drop in NHG temps after the war was due to aerosols, but this is nonsense because air pollution has been around since the mid 19thC.

    • Yes, I just commented on your sunshine hour post here on WUWT that the 1988 change is real and seen all over Europe, and – as I show with a link in that post – most clearly seen as a step change up in precipitation in Norway. Here in Norway, this is touted as proof that the weather gets “wilder” with “climate change”. Of course they don’t mention that the change virtually happened in only one year, not over time.
      There’s no need to look extensively for wrong data – the change was real. Now if only some real climate scientists could work on describing and explaining this highly interesting change instead of the AGW tribe trying to explain it away with their overly simplistic CO2 theories.

      • One “real climate scientist,” Bob Tisdale is:
        {There is much more good information in Tisdale’s book and in the publications of many other real (as in DATA-based) scientists — the below is just a sample of what you will find.}
        “The North Atlantic has an additional mode of natural variability called the AMO (Atlantic
        Multidecadal Oscillation). I’ve mentioned it a few times already. As a result of the
        Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, for the period of November, 1981 to July, 2013 (the
        satellite era of sea surface temperature data), North Atlantic sea surface temperatures
        warmed almost 3 times faster than the global oceans. (See Figure 7-13.)”

        Climate Models Fail, p. 232, Bob Tisdale (2013 e book)

  25. Step change in 1988 was a very real climate shift in Scandinavia at least.
    Finland sits in the border of oceanic and continental climate zones. Slight change
    in Atlantic SST (+ve AMO) and mild winter’s results. When AMO in long term goes
    negative, continental (Siberian) climate reclaims its territory and the opposite happens.
    Funny thing, none of the Finnish climate “scientists” have ever mentioned AMO. None.

  26. “The biggest temperature rise has coincided with November, December and January. Temperatures have also risen faster than the annual average in the spring months, i.e., March, April and May. In the summer months, however, the temperature rise has not been as significant,” says Professor Ari Laaksonen of the University of Eastern Finland and the Finnish Meteorological Institute.

    And yet paradoxically, many Finns flock to places like Majorca, Canary Islands and Thailand during the most affected months. Sometimes even during the summer. Would things like this have something to do with it? http://yle.fi/uutiset/helsinki_still_copes_with_last_winters_snow/5429556

  27. Don;t know of the validity of the numbers or conclusion of this report, it seems data is all over the place and there are plenty of contradictions and concerns.
    Regardless, I don’t think anyone in Finland is turning in their wool sweaters or mittens any time soon.

  28. Here’s what I have for annual temp data for the stations in a that 1 x 1 degree cell

    YEAR	MAXTEMP	        MINTEMP
    1952	46.70397112	32.24909747
    1953	48.35810811	34.60472973
    1954	47.93584906	35.03396226
    1955	44.1		29.02592593
    1956	44.8006993	29.87062937
    1957	46.19847328	34.22900763
    1958	45.10306407	30.72423398
    1959	48.70285714	33.55142857
    1960	46.89675516	32.01769912
    1961	49.27146814	35.07756233
    1962	45.55801105	31.61325967
    1963	46.61157025	30.61983471
    1973	47.70773481	32.10441989
    1974	48.51416838	37.96365503
    1975	49.60018433	36.62193548
    1976	44.29614679	31.20733945
    1977	44.38838174	33.16514523
    1978	43.72486188	31.52458564
    1979	44.9370319	33.43800277
    1980	45.39098592	33.12056338
    1981	45.29725275	34.28956044
    1982	46.92980769	35.22815934
    1983	47.64342466	35.83726027
    1984	47.83703125	36.25328125
    1985	43.76219178	28.84410959
    1986	46.66437126	31.85868263
    1987	43.83315068	28.81287671
    1988	48.1068306	33.13278689
    1989	50.72534435	35.70936639
    1990	49.86136986	34.52
    1991	49.13068493	34.17369863
    1992	49.39562842	34.63579235
    1993	47.72		32.82136986
    1994	47.99561644	32.85287671
    1995	49.31671233	33.87315068
    1996	47.46857923	32.12540984
    1997	49.31150685	33.68821918
    1998	47.86164384	33.63534247
    1999	50.43415978	35.06363636
    2000	51.19453552	36.73688525
    2001	48.98054795	34.35369863
    2002	50.03671233	33.76849315
    2003	48.89146006	32.74517906
    2004	49.03306011	32.93306011
    2005	49.4369863	34.43342466
    2006	50.55424658	34.01589041
    2007	50.99972603	35.21726027
    2008	50.68726944	38.51717902
    2009	48.12465706	34.86882716
    2010	46.40340909	32.62503444
    2011	50.40674003	36.57912655
    2012	47.08677599	34.34968597
    2013	50.82326169	36.1583228
    

    9999 is an average of all measurements.
    9999 47.75009467 33.63057858
    [Reformatted column data with html code ‘pre’ .mod]

  29. I had a look at the satellite global gridded RSS Lower Troposphere temperature anomalies. I masked just the grid cells that were best covering Finland and averaged them. I used the data from 1980 through 2013 The graph was very similar to the authors’ findings. There appeared to be a defined step change up at about 1989. as in the Helsinki and other data. So, it seems this step up phenomena is not just confined to surface data, but is present in the satellite data as well.

  30. When the AMO switches to “cold” then this “study” will put on ice. Like some scotch drinkers do…I prefer warm … so I can taste the finest qualities. MMmmmm….back to being merry…

  31. I’m still working on it but I noticed something strange about maximum temperatures in remote regions of Australia. There is a step up around 2000.
    http://postimg.org/image/liwsrzmqr/
    I don’t have the plot on me but I selected a half dozen sites in rural NSW and took the monthly mean maximums, did a moving 12 month mean for all stations together. There is a very unnatural step up around 2000.

  32. Finland used to be dominated by industrial cellulose plants whose stench was everywhere in the 1960’s . From the 1990’s the use of the Internet had led to a steady decline in the celluiose industry and paper making which has removed a lot of particulates from the air. Present Finland is a lot cleaner and sunnier. Some of the increase in temperature could be caused by this change in particles in the air, as well as the decline of noxious smog producing industry in adjoining Russia to the east, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

    • You are dreaming. There was no climate shift in 1988, just an ordinary El Nino. It is the one Hansen thinks is the tip of a rising temperature curve, which it isn’t. It is just one of five El Nino peaks of equal height in the eighties and nineties observable in satellite records. They cover the temperature platform from 1979 to early 1997, which is when the super El Nino begins to grow. Do not look for this in ground-based temperature curves because they show a fake warming there. There is no warming, just ENSO in this temperature stretch.

  33. Perhaps with 2C warmer temps, the employees of Lapua and Vihtavuori won’t have such creaky bones and can therefore move a bit faster, thus increasing their production and exports to the US, where such excellent items seem to be in perpetual short supply.

  34. Those graphs use one year increments and are worthless. Use monthly increments and do not put any dots into the graph. You need this to be able to see the ENSO pattern. That is necessary to spot any discontinuites that you think you see.

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