A “superbomb” storm is being predicted for Christmas Day in the Northeast United states according to WeatherBell Meteorologist Dr. Ryan Maue who has pointed out it looks to be reminiscent of the Cleveland Superbomb of 1978 aka the “Great New England Blizzard of 1978”.
This GFS forecast model for Christmas Day shows the depth of the low, poised to gather moisture from the Great Lakes and dump it into the Northeastern U.S. over the next 24-48 hours, potentially making Christmas and post-Christmas travel a nightmare, but … there is a twist.
Dr. Maue adds on his Twitter feed:
Exciting to see extreme weather forecasts with an item that requires dusting off the record books. 958 mb low
For reference, a 958 millibar low pressure system is as low as the central pressure for some tropical storms and nearly that of some hurricanes. For example Hurricane Sandy had a central pressure of 940 mbar or 27.76 inHg.
According to the Time article on the Cleveland Superbomb of 1978:
Meteorologists have a name for a storm that occurs when air pressure drops very rapidly as a jet stream brings in moisture: a weather bomb. In late January 1978, a low-pressure system moving from the Gulf Coast met with two other low-pressure systems, one from the Southwest and one from Canada, to create one of the worst snowstorms the Midwest has ever seen. With barometric pressure so low, it was more like a hurricane than a snowstorm, the so-called Cleveland Superbomb dumped 1-3 ft. (30-90 cm) of snow on several Midwestern states, including Ohio, Indiana and Michigan. Wind gusts approached 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h), causing snowdrifts to reach heights of 25 ft. (8 m) in some areas. Such snowdrifts made roadways impassable, forcing doctors and emergency personnel to ski and snowmobile their way to those in need. Indiana’s governor sent tanks down I-65 to remove stranded trucks, while in Ohio, National Guard helicopters flew some 2,700 missions to help stranded drivers. About 70 deaths are attributed to the storm.
While the Cleveland Superbomb has an intriguing name, the most well-known snowstorm of that year was known simply as the Great New England Blizzard of 1978. On Feb. 6, about two weeks after the Superbomb, a blizzard dealt Boston and other parts of the Northeast as many as 27 in. (69 cm) of snow with winds of 80-110 m.p.h. (130-180 km/h). Thousands of homes were damaged or destroyed and approximately 100 people died.
Maue adds:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545288516591030272
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545289623228805120/photo/1
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545290397014958080
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545291816380006402
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545290824976564224
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/545291107353899009
I’ll add, it also has nothing to do with that other favorite catchphrase of the media, the “polar vortex”.
Well here’s the current forecast from the Albany NY guys, still looks like a coin toss…
Tuesday night into Christmas… the long-wave trough revs up and
turns negatively tilted Tuesday night. Short-wave energy digging around
the base of the trough helps another surface cyclone form over the
Carolinas Tuesday night. There maybe a brief lull in the precipitation before
this next wave races towards the northeast. An area of upper level
diffluence sets up over the northeast by Wednesday morning. The
coastal wave looks to take an inland track allowing milder air to
flood into most of eastern New York and western New England. Strong qg Omega
occurs due to strong convergence ahead of the intensifying and
deepening wave…as it moves towards NYC by Wednesday afternoon. The h850
winds increase to 35-50+ kts from the east/southeast during the afternoon. It
could be quite windy…as the surface low deepens potentially to 975 hpa
or by early Wednesday evening…especially from then Hudson River valley
eastward. A narrow cold frontal rainband could even form…if the
wave tracks along or just east of the Hudson River valley…though
the gefs mean has the wave as far west at the kbuf-kroc corridor.
Periods of rain… possibly heavy could be possible…but if the
track is further east it could be snow and rain for a larger potion
of the area. Highs on Christmas evening looks to be above normal in the
m40s to l50s south and east of capital region…and u30s to l40s.
Christmas evening into Christmas the storm deepens potentially to below
970 hpa over S-central Quebec. Much colder air moves back into the
region for a period of snow or snow showers for a large portion of
the region. Any accums looks to be on the light side…except for
perhaps the southern dacks and southern greens…but it is too far out to get
into exact snow accums. Lows will be in the u20s to m30s Christmas
evening…and 30s to l40s on Christmas.
Translation: winter is cold.
It’s winter, there is going to be colder weather and likely more rain, snow, etc. Last year in the western US we had very cold temperatures, but not much precipitation. This year the precipitation seems a little above average for this time of year. My bet is that the rest of the winter/spring will come in about average. Lets just hope the early storms have set the ground for a good snow pack up high. This is my PHD thesis.
Those looking to hand out a $100 million grant can contact me and I’ll give you the account information.
It would be nice if one of these would descend over D.C. and stay there until we can’t see the Washington monument for the pile of snow.
Best to stay away from DC…
Inch and a half of rain. Meh.