By Paul Homewood
Earlier I posted on the news that Department of Energy & Climate Change (DECC) tried to cover up official data showing how electricity prices are expected to skyrocket, as a direct result of climate policies. (See above Telegraph article).
I’ve now had a chance to dissect this data.
They base their assumptions around three scenarios of fossil fuel prices – high, central and low, and all numbers are at 2014 prices, so do not reflect normal annual inflation. They do not clarify exactly what constitutes the fossil fuel price bands, but they use Sep 2014 wholesale electric prices as the starting point.
Let’s start by looking at the central band. First the effect on households.
I have not shown the projections for 2030, as these are little more than guesswork. The key numbers are:-
1) The various green levies will add £188 to household dual bills by 2020, about 13%. Of this, we are already paying £89/yr.
2) Based on 26 million households, this will equate to £4.9 bn a year by 2020.
3) DECC claim that we will all be saving £276 on average by using less energy because of their kind and thoughtful policies. This rather ignores the fact that energy efficiency has continually improved over the years without government help.
4) Notably, a large chunk, £77, arises from “building regulations”. Unfortunately, very few people live in new houses affected by this, and therefore will not save a penny.
5) Electric only households will be disproportionately affected, as electricity price rises will be much greater than gas. The projected green levies will add 23%. It should be remembered in this context, that government policy is to massively switch consumers onto electric heating of homes and electric cars, leaving us ever more vulnerable to higher electricity prices.
DECC have been a bit crafty in the way they have presented their figures, as the “Bill impact of price effects” is calculated against the anticipated lower consumption figures. For instance, household electricity use is expected to fall from 4.5MWh to 3.2MWh by 2020.
The reality is that they expect electricity prices to rise from £141/MWH to £194/MWh by 2020, as a direct result of their policies, an increase of 37%. If we carry on using 4.5MWh a year, the extra cost to households will be £238.
Based on a low fossil fuel price scenario, the extra cost of climate change policy is even greater, adding 42% to electricity prices. Even under the high fossil fuel price option, climate policies will still be adding 29%, and as consumers will be paying more still for energy, the slightly lower climate subsidy won’t come as much of a consolation.
It is also worth pointing out that,even under the high fossil price scenario, by 2030 climate policies will have increased the price of electricity to £233/MWh, from £181/MWh without such policies. In other words, the argument, often wheeled out, that we need renewable energy to protect us from ever rising fossil fuel prices, is dead in the water.
Effect on businesses
The effect on small and medium sized businesses is, if anything, even more scary. Again using the central scenario, we can see that small businesses will be paying 50% more for their electricity, and medium sized ones an astonishing 62% extra.
As the Renewable Energy Foundation correctly points out, it is domestic households which will end up paying for these extra costs to business, through higher prices, lower wages and lost jobs. That is, of course, assuming we have any businesses left.
Following the non agreement that appears to have emerged from Lima, there can be no possible justification left to continue with the flawed and huge expensive Climate Change Act. It is not difficult to see why DECC attempted to hide this data from the public.
Sources
All of the DECC data is here.
So, we’re paying more for less – but that doesn’t get through the indoctrinated skulls of DECC. They just like playing [xxx] (xxx insert deity of choice)
But Ed Miliband the author of this disaster, has promised to freeze prices if elected; we are all saved!
Notice that the UK Climate Change Act was supported by all the MPs in the House with only 5 exceptions (Christopher Chope, Philip Davies, Peter Lilley, Andrew Tyrie, and Ann Widdecombe).
This is not a Party political issue. All the parties voted in favour, overwhelmingly.
Well, there is always cake…
What is the “products policy” portion? Is it rebates for people buying new appliances or some other boondoggle?
No, it’s benefits from supposed better energy efficiency resulting from EU regulations.
“I have not shown the projections for 2030, as these are little more than guesswork.”
When it comes down to it, it’s all guesswork, WAGs & SWAGs & crystal balls.
These price increase are a direct result of the insane Climate Change Act- basically the wet-dream of the scientifically illiterate English graduate and ecofascist Bryony Worthington (she was an FoE activist) who, God help us, a member of the House of Lords.
This Bill was proposed by the equally scientifically-illiterate “Red” Ed Millibrain, leader of the crypto-communist Labour party. It received more or less 100% support from the scientifically-illiterate, time-serving cretins who “represent the people” in the House of Commons.
DECC, run by the scientifically-illiterate PPE (arts) graduate and criminally insane Ed Davey, is the “genius” behind policy implementation.
One of the earliest comments posted under the original Telegraph article provides a link to evidence given in October this year by Professor Dieter Helm to a committee of the House of Lords considering UK electricity system resilience. His slot lasts about an hour and includes some interesting analysis of energy market behaviour, the economics of competing technologies, etc.
The main problem is that his conclusions are driven by the fact that he has swallowed the carbon lie, hook, line and sinker and regards the need for “de-carbonisation” as unquestionable, indisputable.
He berates recent DECC ministers for basing UK energy policies on the mistaken assumption that gas prices will rise, but doesn’t see the plank in his own eye, that he’s basing his analysis on assumptions that the world is warming and that carbon dioxide released by burning fossil fuels is to blame, even though it is increasingly clear that the theoretical models on which those assumptions were based are increasingly out of step with observed climate trends.
At one point he does comment that ‘assumption might not turn out to be the case’, but only in the context that a centralised distribution system may not be needed if, for example, advances in solar film technologies connecting to improved energy storage systems make very local generation more effective than is envisaged at present.
Couldn’t help thinking, it’s good to have this footage in the Parliamentary archive ready for when another enquiry comes along to ask how we got it all so wrong. OK, so he’s only a professor of economics (and only at Oxford University), but it will be evidence that even an apparently superior intelligence could be misled by the propagandists.
I doubt he would have been invited to give evidence if he hadn’t promised to subscribe to the carbon dioxide myth. However, he does castigate the DECC and OFGEM muppets quite effectively in his opening statement.
By the way, if you think DECC are a bunch of Scrooges who don’t care if the elderly freeze to death this Christmas… they are!
The Telegraph reports that they have banned the word Christmas from their thing-mas cards.
Meanwhile, a report is out saying that electric cars are more poluting than standard fossil fuel cars.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2876552/Your-electric-car-not-green-Researchers-say-electricity-generated-coal-plants-make-air-DIRTIER.html
When I pointed this out to Professor Mackay, the government energy advisor, a few years ago, he threatened to sue me. However, I have not received a writ yet. Are you listening, Mackay?
In explanation, Prof MacKay wrote a government advisory pamphlet, saying that electric cars were five times as efficient as petrol cars. But this claim was so disingenuous, it was bordering on frawdulent. And having called him out, in the Sunday Times, he got all upset.
But will the professor now withdraw his frawdulent claim? If not, will he come onto this website and justify his claim. He is still telling the government that electric cars are 5X more efficient. See the pamphlet ‘Renewable Energy without the Hot Air’. I think the claim was on p129, but I will look that up.
Ralph
“if a coal plant is used to produce it”…and I doubt their findings. That being said…another example of how the media picks up a non fact, theory, or even conjecture and promotes it as fact. All the AGW crowd has to do is feed them snippets of thought and the media turns it into full blown scare mongering. The unethical scientists feeding the media must laugh all the way to the next grant.
I think you mis-read the article. Fossil-fueled power plants ARE producing the electricity for your electric car.
In the UK, nearly 70% of our electricity is coal or gas – so 70% of your electric car top-up is coal or gas. Thus 70% of of the electricity in an electric car, has already pumped out its CO2 and other emissions at the power plant. I calculate that most electric cars pump out 10% more CO2 per mile, than my turbo-diesel 5-door saloon. And that is despite my saloon being a hefty great lump, rather than those super-light Tesla things.
Government figures. 70% of UK electricity is coal or gas – See page 3:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/285862/press_notice_february_2014.pdf
Ralph
“I think you mis-read the article. Fossil-fueled power plants ARE producing the electricity for your electric car.” I understand. I was referring to the “3.6 times more smog and soot”. Scrubbers on today’s coal fired plants actually work pretty well.
UK citizens will pay more money for electricity.
Co2 in the EARTH’S atmosphere will continue to rise irrespective.
What is this all for?
The official line is that, if the UK takes a lead on the issue, the little countries like China and India will soon follow along.
We have an Empire, after all, and they are mere foreigners – why wouldn’t they listen to their betters?
No really, from Implementing the Climate Change Act 2008 page 5:
So MCourtney,
Just where does Cameron get off thinking it is ok for him to chastise us colonials (and our Aussie Mates) for not agreeing to jump off the cliff along with y’alls ??
The umbilical was cut years ago, so go ahead and jump, and see if we will come and help you again.
I didn’t vote for him. I don’t think he’s go this right. But he does and we, the little people, should respect our betters.
When you Colonials get a little more experienced I’m sure you’ll understand.
Of course it is going to cost and not just a bit, but lets hide that truth!
Well Obama told us up front that (US) electricity prices, must “necessarily” sky rocket when he implements his energy policies.
So just what is the eventual intent of having expensive energy, along with worthless money ??
So wadja have in mind back then Barri ??
“So wadja have in mind back then Barri ??” Redistribution of wealth and you’ll save the world as an added bonus.