Quicky Mid-November 2014 ENSO Update

Guest Post by Bob Tisdale

AUSTRALIA’S BOM UPGRADES ENSO TRACKER STATUS TO EL NIÑO ALERT

On November 18, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) upgraded the conditions in the tropical Pacific from El Niño “watch” to “alert” levels, “indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring”.  See the rest of their update here.

NOAA’S WEEKLY NINO3.4 DATA 

The sea surface temperature anomalies of the NINO3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific are a commonly used ENSO index. NOAA’s Oceanic NINO Index is a form of the data of that region. According to NOAA’s weekly sea surface temperature data for the NINO3.4 region, as of the week centered on November 12th, El Niño conditions (+0.5 deg C or greater) have existed in the NINO3.4 region for 5 weeks and they are presently well above the threshold, now at 0.8 deg C for two weeks.   This is still a far cry from the NOAA requirements to declare an “official” El Niño has taken place (5 consecutive periods of 3-month averages with NINO3.4 anomalies equal to or above the +0.5 deg C threshold). But it’s a start.

BE CAREFUL HOW YOU INTERPRET ANOMALIES ON MAPS

Over the past month or so, the unusual warming of the eastern extratropical North Pacific (known as “the blob”) has dissipated.  Whether or not it will return next year is still uncertain.  But as a result of the blob, there was a large volume of warm water on the surface in the northeastern North Pacific, and presently there are residuals (leftovers) that are now hugging the west coast of North America.  See the map of sea surface temperature anomalies in Figure 1.  It’s from the CMC Environment Canada webpage here.

Figure 1

Figure 1

Some of that warm water along the North American coast, according to the recent interviews with Trenberth and Timmermann, came from a coastally trapped Kelvin wave that formed after the large downwelling equatorial Kelvin wave hit the coast of Ecuador back in April 2014. Also see the discussion of coastally trapped Kelvin waves in the post Axel Timmermann and Kevin Trenberth Highlight the Importance of Natural Variability in Global Warming…  And some of the warm is left over from the blob.

That raises a few questions: is that warm water feeding back down to the tropics?  If so, will it enhance the El Niño conditions in the tropics?

If we look at animations of sea surface temperature anomaly maps, it APPEARS that, yes, the warmer waters along the west coast of North America might be migrating southward along the California Current.

Animation 1 presents the 6 cells from the maps available as part of today’s animation from the CMC Environment Canada webpage here.  That animation runs early October to today.  The visual effect shows up pretty well on those maps.  [Note: It could also be that the warming sea surfaces along the equator are creating a more typical El Niño spatial pattern.]

Animation 1

Animation 1

But in Animation 2 the visual effect isn’t as clear. Animation 2 shows 10 of the weekly cells of the animation here from the NOAA PSD Map Room webpage. They run from mid-September to mid-November.

Animation 2

Animation 2

Unfortunately, there is a large seasonal component to hemispheric sea surface temperature anomaly data, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. As a result, on sea surface temperature anomaly maps, the warmest anomalies can cycle yearly, tracking the change of seasons.  Some of the seasonal appearance (not the blob) results from the seasonal loss and gain of Arctic sea ice, but there can still be large seasonal cycles in small regions…such as along the west coast of North America, where the California Current exists.  See Figure 2.

Figure 2

Figure 2

That brings us to the questions:  is the appearance of warm water migrating southward simply a product of the climatology used to determine the anomalies? Or is the warmer water actually heading south along the coast of North America as one might expect in the California Current?

Well, there’s something else to keep an eye on.

 

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Catherine Ronconi
November 19, 2014 3:57 pm

The Blob oozes south drifting on the current.

LogosWrench
Reply to  Catherine Ronconi
November 19, 2014 4:08 pm

Rework that a little it’s almost a haiku. Give us a total of six more syllables.
🙂

View from the Solent
Reply to  LogosWrench
November 19, 2014 4:12 pm

The Blob oozes south drifting on the current
the plankton are thriving.

jorgekafkazar
Reply to  LogosWrench
November 19, 2014 8:09 pm

Seventeen syllables don’t make a haiku any more than eleven guys make a football team.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  LogosWrench
November 19, 2014 8:24 pm

View from the Solent
November 19, 2014 at 4:12 pm
The Blob oozes south drifting on the current
the plankton are thriving.

The Blob oozes south,
Drifting with the current flow.
Plankton are thriving.

Evan Jones
Editor
November 19, 2014 4:08 pm

Downwelling off the Coast of Ecuador? Sounds like it’s pretty mixed up to me.

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
November 19, 2014 5:47 pm

I’m curious how that warm water made it’s way from Ecuador all the way up to the north Pacific coast, and then back down again. What kind of current does that?

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
November 20, 2014 4:36 am

So you’re saying that kelvin wave collided with Ecuador, then went north along the coast, against the California current, all the way up into the north pacific? How does that happen? And how often?

phlogiston
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
November 20, 2014 6:24 am

He said upwelling

Latitude
November 19, 2014 4:10 pm

yes…..
…..no

Jeff (of Colorado)
November 19, 2014 4:17 pm

Down welling off Ecuador has its ups and downs, but is generally a swell idea.

Dawtgtomis
November 19, 2014 4:34 pm

As a result of ‘the blob’, Steve McQueen became a Hollywood star!

tomwys1
November 19, 2014 4:43 pm

It is the lack of warm water pooling in the Western Pacific that should throw some caution into the wind, as I’d expect the equatorial countercurrent to help “fuel” an El Niño,” and there is little oceanic heat, at present, to transport!!!

tomwys1
Reply to  tomwys1
November 19, 2014 8:15 pm

As a courtesy, I’ll append Bob’s reply to me from his own site:
Bob Tisdale says:
November 19, 2014 at 7:47 pm
tomwys1, depends on which reanalysis one looks at, as to whether there’s warm water in the warm pool:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora/pac/ohc/ohc_pac_xy_L1.gif
From the NOAA webpage here:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/multiora_body.html
Regards

November 19, 2014 4:47 pm

Is the water off the coast of southern California actually warmer than at the equator or does it just look that way since its anomaly is higher? Since if it is not warmer, then it may not enhance the El Nino.

RACookPE1978
Editor
Reply to  Werner Brozek
November 19, 2014 8:42 pm

Werner Brozek
I understand the graph is showing “anomalies” or differences from the normal at that area at that time of year. So, the water IS much warmer near the equator than off of California, but when the graph was plotted, the area near the equator was slightly cooler than normal, and the area off of the California coast was slightly warmer than usual at that time of year.
If they did their processing correctly.

Reply to  Bob Tisdale
November 20, 2014 8:05 am

Thank you to both!

Robert B
November 19, 2014 4:57 pm

Strange that this was made after a few months of drier than normal weather in eastern parts of Australia. As soon as its made, the rain comes. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/flood/index.shtml?ref=hdr
(OK, not enough but it is amusing)

Glen Michel
Reply to  Robert B
November 20, 2014 2:05 am

BoM playing catch up again.70% probability?who knows? Their record of medium term forecasting is very poor and the source of ridicule.(for those who take an interest in such things)

Robert B
Reply to  Glen Michel
November 20, 2014 2:30 pm

http://joannenova.com.au/2013/02/how-well-did-that-50-degree-forecast-work-out-for-the-bom/
Ok, its not something that is in the peer-reviewed literature but I’ve had the same experiences as Glen. I’ve read only a slight chance of showers only hours before 40mm fell causing me a bit of grief (farming). They got the prediction correct after it started raining.

November 19, 2014 5:07 pm

The BOM ‘Alert’ is more likely a way of diverting public attention from ‘The Pause’ and other conflicting data. It also fills in time for the Warmistas until the firebugs get the bushfire season underway.

Bill H
November 19, 2014 5:14 pm

And the westerlies needed to complete this are……….

David Smith
November 19, 2014 5:28 pm

Readers might enjoy the Earth.nullschool display of SST and ocean currents:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/ocean/surface/currents/overlay=sea_surface_temp_anomaly/orthographic=201.32,54.72,1168
Also, recall that wind speed plays an important role in SST. The higher the wind, the greater the evaporation and lower the temperature. Sometimes SST anomalies are due to wind speed anomalies.

u.k.(us)
November 19, 2014 5:54 pm

…….”On November 18, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) upgraded the conditions in the tropical Pacific from El Niño “watch” to “alert” levels,”…..
==========
Just what are the masses supposed to do about an El Niño “alert” ?
Will money help slay the cause, or did money demand a cause.

u.k.(us)
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 19, 2014 6:58 pm

You sure jumped on that one.
I’m not the [trimmed], She is.

Richo
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 19, 2014 7:13 pm

Hi Peter
Australian farmers generally use private forecasters because they normally have a better track record than the BOM at long range weather forecasting because they don’t have any ideological hang ups. The BOM’s track record this year on forecasting El Nino has been abysmal.

Plain Jane
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 19, 2014 8:15 pm

The BoM certainly like to scare the farmers and forecasts like that drop the sheep and cattle markets. The local farmers mood is affected by the BoM here. It is only a grazing area, so not the big dollars to buy better private forecasts and small time sheep and cattle farmers tend to just listen to ABC radio for their weather and get the unending dose of propaganda with it.
I follow the BoM ENSO page and they go to greater lengths to explain when they think it is more likely to be an El Nino and kind of obscure the information when it is less likely to be and El Nino – not that they like to be with the global warming program or anything.

Richo
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 19, 2014 9:23 pm

Hi Plain Jane
This information is free online at a number of sites just like provided by Bob and Joe. Unfortunately, a lot of the smaller farmers are not computer literate and don’t realise that there are a multitude of alternate reliable views on the web other than that tripe dished up by BOM, ABC and Fairfax.

Otter (ClimateOtter on Twitter)
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 20, 2014 1:21 am

You’ve been outvoted by actual people in Australia, petey. Time to take another vacation….. wait, Where did you say you went again, on the last four?

Farmer Gez
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 20, 2014 1:31 am

From my experience BOM alerts are hindcasts for most farmers. The weather patterns are well in place before definitive statements are made which makes it virtually impossible to use BOM forecasts for planning.
Aussie farmers are very skeptical of the BOM’s ability to forecast seasonally when anything past five days looks like a even odds guess.

Glen Michel
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 20, 2014 2:18 am

….and it can rain from a great height during an El Niño. Just saying that BoM is vulnerable to the weather joker.

ozspeaksup
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 20, 2014 4:12 am

BoM trying to scare people into worrying over climate yet again
especially with fire season upon us
funny is the rain we are getting finally on a fair part of east coast n qld
PS
Mods /Anth**y/ anyone..
what happened to the Co2 meter that used to be on the sidebar?
I liked getting a chuckle as it rose and temps did not.

Brian H
Reply to  ozspeaksup
November 23, 2014 12:11 pm

Not a sip in months, and quite clear enough to me. Worries are high in fire season, BoM plays on this, but the rains on the coast are giving the lie to that. Canadian, here.

Plain Jane
Reply to  u.k.(us)
November 21, 2014 3:08 am

I had decisions to make in July (not sure if that is relevant to your question). I sold cows on the point of calving for about 80c / kg when those animals with their offspring would have been worth triple that amount in a few months. I would have had to have the confidence to spend money on agistment and assume the cattle price would lift and it would rain enough in the meantime.

Joel O'Bryan
November 19, 2014 6:48 pm

This year’s El Nino will drive or is going to drive a major re-think on what defines an El Nino by NOAA. We are there by many aspects of na El Nino. The warm pools of water have been spreading across the EPac since Sept, feuling EPac hurricanes, SW US and Texas rains. Maybe it has been weak, but still most of the symptoms are there. The phase changes of PDO are interfering with a likely classically defined El Nino, but it is there and it is still coming with another warm pool of water still to rise off Ecuador within 30 days.

ossqss
November 19, 2014 7:09 pm

How many times will we anticipate that of which has done the bait an switch?
http://youtu.be/G3ceb5OVG7k

November 19, 2014 7:27 pm

Thanks, Bob.
This El Niño will be the most observed ever. Unprecedented.
I think next year the record will be broken again.
More people looking in the right direction. Good.

November 19, 2014 8:04 pm

Still, that temperature graph of the California Current along with the ocean temperature graphs that Bob has provided are eye poppers. Now, whether it means a warming atmosphere OR more heat pushed out of the ocean through the atmosphere into space – what do we get for land surface temperatures? Warming or cooling? Right now, it looks like cooling but considering inertia and lag times, what is the forecast for next summer? Planning to ride horses from Missouri to Nevada starting middle of May so is it going to be sunny and warm, or cold and wet? I think I’ll take a slicker and sun lotion. 😉

Streetcred
Reply to  Wayne Delbeke
November 20, 2014 12:02 am

… and a hat 😉

hunter
November 19, 2014 8:57 pm

An “alert” for a friggin’ El Nino? As if it is a storm or tornado, and not a multi-month to year plus natural phenomenon. It is annoying how everything under control of climate freaks and kooks is described in alarmist or scary terms.

Joel O'Bryan
November 19, 2014 9:05 pm

Weather alarmism is a where the Climate Alarmists are headed. They haven’t gotten the public’s attention with the deceitful Climate Change “alarmism”, so now go with Weather alarmism.
Tell the people of south of Albany NY on Thursday that they are digging out from 8 feet of weather and they would believe it. Tell them it’s “8 feet of Global warming”, not so much.

rogerthesurf
November 19, 2014 9:56 pm

Some warm water for California would be welcome.
The waters usually freezing there.
Can’t beat Manly or Bondi.
Piha’s not bad as well.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.rogerfromnewzealand.wordpress.com

John Harris
November 19, 2014 9:57 pm

Is the Kara sea getting colder?

Bill Jamison
November 19, 2014 10:25 pm

“That raises a few questions: is that warm water feeding back down to the tropics? If so, will it enhance the El Niño conditions in the tropics?”
Warm is relative. The ocean off Southern California is unusually warm right right at ~67 degrees. That’s certainly not going to migrate south and warm up the tropics!

Eliza
November 19, 2014 10:38 pm

I’m am surprised that this site and other skeptic sites ect are not pouncing on the fact that the USA looks like Arctic/Antarctica at the moment (ALL over the news MSM ect), when Arctic temperatures 80N are NORMAL (not warmer) see DMI arctic. You see the warmists are saying that NH pole is warming therefore MORE snow. ITS NOT.

hunter
Reply to  Eliza
November 20, 2014 3:34 am

+1

Jaakko Kateenkorva
Reply to  Eliza
November 20, 2014 1:04 pm

Good point

November 19, 2014 10:41 pm

I was hoping for a strong El Nino to give California some much needed rain, but it doesn’t look very probable given all the cool water flowing into the equator from the Southern Ocean.
Alarmists are covered either way. If a strong El Nino does develop, the global temp spike will be blamed on CO2 forcing, and If a strong El Nino doesn’t develop, the persistent California drought will be blamed on CO2 forcing….
It’s so frustrating and economically devestating when weather is politicized… It leads to really bad infrastructure, agricultural and water management decisions being made that are based on political agendas rather than climate realities.

patrick healy
November 20, 2014 12:41 am

I also was wondering what relevance this interesting article has for the majority of humans who happen to live on land.
The most topical aspect of it was the mention of “the blob”
Is this perchance any relation to the BBG aka the Great Green Blob?
Whilst on the subject of weather is there any truth in the BBC rumour that our American cousins are having a bit of white global warming.
We should be told.

mwh
November 20, 2014 1:41 am

I was interested from the Canadian anomaly series that there is a consistent colder anomaly over the N Atlantic – is this consistent with El Nino conditions in the PNE. 2/2.5 degrees C would have a significant effect on European Autumn weather as well I would imagine

Greg
November 20, 2014 1:55 am

Hi Bob, thanks for the aminations.

That brings us to the questions: is the appearance of warm water migrating southward simply a product of the climatology used to determine the anomalies?

The standard base period being used is not helpful unless you want to shout about ‘unprecedented’ anomalies in Aug/Sept.
What would be more help in seeing what is happenning is to use, say, the post 1998 period as the base for annual cycle. That way there would be less annual residual in the recent data and that, after all, is the real point of anamalies.
I seem to recall that you have produced maps using KNMI in the past. They let you define the anomaly period ( assuming you’re not already looking at an anomaly dataset ).
Could you use that create your own maps and then map animations with a more appropriate base period?
[Please use a legitimate email address. ~mod.]

Farmer Gez
November 20, 2014 2:11 am

Is it possible that the warm waters could be driven to the West Pacific and kick off a La Niña or does the whole system have to trend neutral and a fresh warm pool develop?
What is happening to the trade winds presently?
Normal conditions or a La Niña cause upwelling of cold water in the East Pacific but in the El Niño phase do we get colder water upwelling in the West Pacific?

Farmer Gez
Reply to  Bob Tisdale
November 20, 2014 12:36 pm

Thank you Bob for your detailed reply. As usual with weather the answers to simple questions are often complex.

Greg Holmes
November 20, 2014 3:11 am

Not sure I would trust anything coming from the BOM in Australia. They have been subject to various enquireies over the legitimasy of there reporting in recent years. Dodgy outfit?

hunter
November 20, 2014 3:35 am

It seems that this is a classic El Nino behavior: It is closing in on Christmas and an El Nino may form. Just like Joe Bastardi and Bob Tisdale have been saying.

Alx
November 20, 2014 3:59 am

“indicating at least a 70% chance of El Niño occurring”
When I see a rain forecast a few days out for my area of 70% rain, I conclude that either one of two things will happen, it will rain, or it won’t rain. I imagine the same possible outcomes with El Nino.

Bill Illis
November 20, 2014 5:08 am

Here are a few cross-sections which relate to the hotspot in the north Pacific, what is going on in the California Current and more about what is happening under the surface.
First, the cross-section of Pacific ocean temperatures from the GODAS model at the 140W longitude down to 1000M (going from the Gulf of Alaska to Antarctica, more-or-less the middle of the Nino 3.4 region going across the Pacific from north to south). This is just barely catching the side of the hotspot along the North American coast and side of the California current.
Generally, the warmth, the hotspot is only at the surface.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/yz/mnth.anom.yz.temp.140w.2014.10.gif
Then last summer when the north Pacific hotspot was at its max. This transect should be right in the middle of where the north Pacific hotspot was this summer. Surface only again.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/yz/mnth.anom.yz.temp.140w.2014.08.gif
Then the cross-section at 110W, Antarctica to mid-Mexico coast. Pretty good hotspot here at 15N. This is actually the California Current which bends and flows east to west at this latitude. It is need to fight its way through the Equatorial counter-current at 8N which flows east to west (the big blue cold spot) to make it into the ENSO circulation at the Equator. Or more accurately, it needs to be warm enough to warm up the Eq. counter-current at 8N. It might be big enough to do just that.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/mnth_gif/yz/mnth.anom.yz.temp.110w.2014.10.gif

Bill Illis
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 20, 2014 5:11 am

Sorry, the Equatorial counter-current at 8N flows WEST to EAST.

Bill Illis
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 20, 2014 5:28 am

Forgot to mention all of the cold water in the southern hemisphere transect at 110W. This water has more chance to influence the ENSO equatorial current as it partially flows right in under the influence of the Humbolt Current along the South American coast
Latest animation of surface currents in the region from the high resolution US Navy Hycom model which helps explain a little of the above.
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycom1-12/navo/equpacsst_nowcast_anim30d.gif

phlogiston
Reply to  Bill Illis
November 20, 2014 6:30 am

Bill
I’ve always considered SSTs to be a transient thing. All you need is a calm ocean surface for a few days undisturbed by currents or winds.

wws
November 20, 2014 5:12 am

A bit OT- was just watching the morning news channels, and Gov. Cuomo was on, loudly proclaiming how the 7 feet of lake effect snow in Buffalo was all due to “Climate Change”.
I didn’t know whether to laugh or cry – wanted to do both.

Jim Francisco
Reply to  wws
November 20, 2014 7:13 am

Isn’t it amazing that he can say that with a straight face.

Reply to  wws
November 20, 2014 7:45 am

I didn’t think anyone was dumb enough to start down that road this early, and not wait for people’s misery to be over first.

Jim Francisco
Reply to  wws
November 20, 2014 7:50 am

If you watch this Australian ytube video I guarantee a laugh. Funny F**king weather man from Australia: http://youtu.be/ooaQoBSD52k

Farmer Gez
Reply to  Jim Francisco
November 20, 2014 1:13 pm

Just to explain, Chopper was a real life celebrity hit man. He claimed never to have killed anyone worthwhile. He said he was doing society a service by knocking them off. A macabre sense of humour.

Jim Francisco
Reply to  Jim Francisco
November 20, 2014 6:11 pm

Farmer Gez. The fellow in the video is not really Chopper Reid is he?

Dave Peters
Reply to  wws
November 21, 2014 8:24 pm

WWS — Try this fore dots one might connect:

phlogiston
November 20, 2014 6:33 am

Nina3.4 looks to be peaking around the new year – perfect for triggering a nice big La Nina for 2015.
With ENSO, and climate in general, what goes up must come down.

william
November 20, 2014 6:43 am

Were those warm water blobs responsible for the sharp down turn in sea ice extent that happened toward the end of October/early November. The trend line was headed right into the 1979-2000 1SD “grey area” and then took a sharp downward/rightward turn.

Richard M
November 20, 2014 6:47 am

It looks more to me like this is an El Blobo. If the warm water from The Blob circulating down the CA coast into the tropics is replacing normally cold water that would be cooling the tropics. Without the influence of the colder water mixing into the tropics, it should warm a bit. So, instead of the latest energy surge coming from the PWP, it appears the energy (or lack of cooling in this case) is coming from The Blob. This appears visually in Bob’s animation as it looks like the warm water is moving from the East Pacific to the West Pacific with the normal trade winds.
Now for some wild speculation. We had the 1983 strong El Nino and a 1998 Super El Nino and then the appearance of The Blob in 2013. Notice how they are all 15 years apart. Now, go back to 1968 and 1953 and we also see El Nino conditions of a weaker nature (during a negative PDO). Am I seeing a pattern?
What if during a negative PDO we get a different mode of heating that eventually tracks into the tropics producing an El Nino of a slightly different flavor. Both are instigated by a Kelvin Wave but the strong El Nino events are reinforced by more Kelvin Waves while the El Blobo events are reinforced by warmer water flowing down the California current.
These El Blobo events of the past were fairly long duration which would indicate these conditions will persist through 2015. They were then followed by multi-year La Nina events. If this repeats, then next year will also be warm before the bottom falls out in 2016.

climatologist/meteorologist
November 20, 2014 8:27 am

But where are the expected convection and rain on the equator? After all, we are well into the Mature Phase of a warm event.

November 20, 2014 8:35 am

Joe Bastardi has called for this way back in the spring and has not varied in his opinion. He is the ONLY one that has called this correctly.

Rob
November 20, 2014 12:35 pm

Impressed with cold water south of the Aleutians. This is a huge change. Namias did
a lot of work on this back in the 70’s. In coordination with weak ENSO…Cold Winter for
the Eastern US?

Arno Arrak
November 21, 2014 8:19 am

The El Nino has not been very predictable ever since the super El Nino paid us a visit in 1998. What should have been an El Nino peak starting in 1999 stretched itself out into an irregular, horizontal platform that we now look upon as start of the hiatus. This stretched-out of warming extended for 7 years and then a regular La Nina appeared in 2008. It is a likely candidate for that coooling Trenberth complained about in the Climategate emails. That 2008 La Nina was the first sign that normal ENSO activity was starting up again . It was followed by the 2010 El Nino as expected. But after that the irregularity we had from 2001 to 2007 returned and must be explained. There was no proper La Nina after 2010 and when the time for the next El Nino came it too was somehow botched. They are of course right to look for it in Nino3.4 because that is a point in mid-Pacific where an El Nino must pass through to get to South America. Apparently there was an El Nino wave that did pass through but did not create the warming expected when it hit South America. It was even reported that it spread out along the coast north and south, just what an El Nino wave normally does.But normally it also warms the air above it which then rises, joins the westerlies, and brings us the warmth we expect from an El Nino. That last action is the only thing that is missing now. I am inclined to hold strong trade winds responsible for that. It would appear that the warm air which normally rises when the El Nino wave spreads out along the coast was captured by the extra strong trade winds and carried west instead of east. That robs us of an El Nino peak and the El Nino heat that should have warmed the globe will now warm the central Pacific instead.

James at 48
November 21, 2014 10:17 am

I am still doing a rain dance. Hoping, hoping …

Dave Peters
November 21, 2014 8:30 pm

Bob — Do you have an opinion on the possibility that Nuri affected/reduced the “blob”? Thanks.

Alan Williams
November 22, 2014 7:22 am

The Blob is on the move. What will the alarmists make of this? Probably something like the original Blob:
http://quickhitflix.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Blob-Town-The-Blob-1958-Documentary-@-Phoenixville-Pennsylvania-by-James-Rolfe.jpg

Ian Wilson
November 23, 2014 2:35 am
Ian Wilson
November 25, 2014 11:23 pm

I do forecasts but it seems that no one is listening:
http://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/11/15/evidence-that-strong-el-nino-events-are-triggered-by-the-moon/#comments
Here is my ~ 9 year year cycle in each corresponding 31 year tidal epoch:
A. Full Moon Epochs
1st FULL MOON EPOCH [1870 to 1901]
1877-88 –> 1888-89 –> 1896-97 –> 1905-06 with 1899-1900 as a half cycle
2nd FULL MOON EPOCH [1932 to 1963]
1940-41 –> 1951-52 (weak) –> 1963-64 (weak) with 1957-58 as a half cycle
3rd FULL MOON EPOCH [1993-94 to 2024-25]
1997-98 –> 2006 –>. 2015-16 –> 2024-25 with 2019-20 as a possible half cycle.
B. New Moon Epochs
1st NEW MOON EPOCH [1901 to 1932]
1902-03 –> 1911-12 –> 1918-19 –> 1931-31 with 1925-26 as a half cycle
2nd NEW MOON EPOCH [1963 to 1993-94]
1965-66 –> 1972-73 –> 1982-83 –> 1991-92 with 1987-88 as a half cycle.
3rd NEW MOON EPOCH [2024-25 to 2055]
Only accurate to +/- one year and only a heightened chance of occurring.
2027 –> 2036 –> 2045 —> 2054 with a 2049-2050 half cycle.

December 2, 2014 7:36 am

Sir,
You write a lot on ENSO., it is a lot of effort.
But; I am too confused to understand the current Status. Can you simplify; something like an Abstract or Summary?
Thanks,
Gopinathan Krishnan is a Scientist in the 7th “World”

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