100 Year Snow Records broken across the South Eastern US on October 31st and November 01st

It was the earliest and heaviest snow in several places since records have been kept dating as far back as 1880.

Southeast_US_snow
100 Year Snow Records broken across the South Eastern US on October 31st and November 01st. It was the earliest and heaviest snow in several places since records have been kept dating as far back as 1880. Reduced sunspot count shows Solar hibernation is occurring along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) showing a cooling Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO) Atlantic Ocean temperature is predicted to fall by 2020, which screams of cooling events to take place globally.
Story Title:

h/t David DuByne

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136 thoughts on “100 Year Snow Records broken across the South Eastern US on October 31st and November 01st

  1. This isn’t Climate change its just weather. Move Along Nothing to see here. Its what to be expected in a warming world, as warmer weather = more snow as the. Ahem. /scar.

    You can’t ascribe one single weather event to prove global warming etc. etc.

      • I know we want to be fair and all that. But, with the earliest snows in the SOUTH USA since records have been kept following the series of cold winters in N. Am and Europe, unseasonal late snow and frosts damaging crops in Australia and record Antarctica sea ice extent (~+2Msqkm) and the fact that there has been no warming in 18yrs when the warming we hyped about wasn’t much longer than that to start with and the last half of the 18yrs the temperature has actually declined, when does this stop just being an isolated weather event. Add to this that this is all in the face of malfeasance of the temperature station record manipulators – recent e.g.: New Zealand century temp increase at least halved and Australia’s has been the subject of a backlash – two countries that make up the backbone of records for the Southern Hemisphere.

      • Well I live in NJ & had a nice snowstorm last year(Nov 12th 2013) the year befoe we had snow in Oct.Global weirding or just weather!Stuff happens,weather changes due to too many variables on the sun, orbit timing, sun spots or not.Sorry I was brought up to keep the Earth clean & still do. But the garbage I read abuot how Al Bore care is lame.His mentor said “we’ll freeze or starve to death due to over population. Now chicken little(Al Bore) is telling us we’ll all die if we don’t do what the real flat earther’s want us to do.People who want to control sociaity,your habits and life.Socialists by any other name.Doesn’t anyone want to know how much George Soros & Al Bore make on this game of drones? Follow the fools in power, it’s about monery & control.

    • Why not? NASA is talking about Hottest months / years and it’s clear the temperature differences they’re dealing with involve no more than a few hundredths of one degree….. clearly noise

  2. That’s a coincidence. No1 son and I have today had a wheel-changing session. Three cars from summer to winter tyres. He had never changed a wheel before. He knows how to do it now. We turned around the third car in 20 minutes. Splendid lad.

      • Doug. When I first moved to a heavy snow area I was amazed to find how much difference in performance there is between normal and winter tyres. In my town we average 13 metres of snow per winter, so I know about snow, ice and hardpack. Still there are always some (insert “D” word) who insist that winter tyres don’t work. Sigh.

      • Winter tires improve winter weather handling on most any vehicle regardless of drive train. Winter tires combined with an all wheel drive vehicle amplify the vehicles winter weather handling. Rules to remember: 1) Always run four winter tires on the vehicle, ideally of identical make and manufacture, in order to avoid unpredictable handling 2) Newer designs use micro siping and some perform even better than studded models 3)All wheel/ 4 wheel drive does little to improve the vehicles braking performance in and of itself, but will help the operator avoid hard/harsh braking action which is never a good thing in slippery conditions.

      • Winter tires are much better than 4 wheel drive. There is no advantage in 4×4 during downhill braking and during curving and lateral forces. And those 2 things are most dangerous during winter driving. To not get uphill is just nuisance, but to not be able brake downhill is dangerous as to not hold in curve.

      • My millennial daughter told me what she wanted for Christmas – snow tires.

        All three vehicles will have Hakkapeliittas. A little expensive, but ultimately cheap insurance.

    • It’s rarely worth the cost or effort in the UK because snow is such a rare event. That may sound like sarcasm, but last winter we had no snow at all, then a lot for the previous 3 winter, and before that, typically snows for a few days then melts.

  3. The snow is warmer due to global warming. Were it not for global warming, the snow would be much, much colder, Just ask the kidz at SkS.

  4. Due to snow being a rare and exciting event I feel blessed that I have now seen this strange stuff….

    Thank you kindly Anthony for sharing.

  5. CAGW… it’s worse than we thought ;o)

    The missus and I vacationed in South Carolina last week, returning home on November 1st. The weather was sunny, clear, and warm for the week but snow was all around on the drive home. What was really beautiful to see were the trees that were in full fall color contrasted against the snow.

    • Deciduous trees that are still in leaf have a nasty tendency to break when covered in snow. Hope they survived this event.

      • Pub Bloke,

        This rare and exciting event remember…..

        The esteemed Prof Viner told us so…

        They must not be allowed to conveniently forget their prognostications…

        .
        Thanks to the likes of Jimbo.

      • Several years ago I was driving to Simon Fraser University located at the top of Burnaby Mountain to work on my Computer Science course assignment only to discover that the university was shut down because thousands of trees had their limbs broken off and much worse and the roads were impassable, all due to an early snowfall. Trees never again lined the main road to the university. I bicycled that road a few weeks ago on our thanksgiving holiday and they had just finished building a nice new shared pedestrian bike path for me. I hadn’t been on that particular road in a quarter century. I got my one and only speeding ticket in my life coming down that mountain, years ago. So much for trying to safe gas by coasting.
        While I’m at it, I might as well mention that I don’t drive much and have only purchased $10 of gas this entire century so far.

    • More proof that “Global Warming” causes everything and, by implication, that it’s our fault – and it will cost us. And more proof that “Global Warming” can not be falsified.

      • Here is a reminder of their past predictions for warmer, snowless winters and earlier springs.

        Here is the gold standard of Climastrology, the IPCC.

        IPCC – Climate Change 2001:
        Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
        ….Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms but could cause an increase in freezing rain if average daily temperatures fluctuate about the freezing point….
        http://www.grida.no/publications/other/ipcc_tar/?src=/climate/ipcc_tar/wg2/569.htm

        IPCC – Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
        ….Warmer winters and fewer cold spells, because of climate change, will decrease cold-related mortality in many temperate countries…..
        ipcc.ch/ipccreports/tar/wg2/index.php?idp=674
        ————-

        WalesOnline – 30 June 2007
        “Snowlines are going up in altitude all over the world. The idea that we will get less snow is absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming.”
        Sir John Houghton [atmospheric physicist] – lead editor of first three IPCC reports
        http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/snowless-winters-forecast-wales-world-2247457

        Now the tell us to expect more snow and cold. This is also “absolutely in line with what we expect from global warming”. Is there anything co2 can’t do?

      • True, true – “Global Warming can not be falsified”, as every superstitious belief-system can’t be falsified. It’s simply a matter of faith… ;-)

        IPCC: When it is too dry and hot, the reason has surely to be man-produced CO2, and when it is to wet or icy, then – surprise, surprise – the same anthropogenic CO2 is to blame for… !

        Medieval Witch-Hunters used quite a similar logic: The witch was always guilty no matter what did happen in reality or if the witch did confess or not.

        Conclusion: A hypothesis which can not be falsified doesn’t belong to real science, even when some hard core proponents call them self “scientists”.

    • Blackwhite lives!

      Blackwhite—- “this word has two mutually contradictory meanings. Applied to an opponent, it means the habit of impudently claiming that black is white, in contradiction of the plain facts. Applied to a Party member, it means a loyal willingness to say that black is white when Party discipline demands this. But it means also the ability to believe that black is white, and more, to know that black is white, and to forget that one has ever believed the contrary. This demands a continuous alteration of the past, made possible by the system of thought which really embraces all the rest, and which is known in Newspeak as doublethink.” Orwell, “1984”

      • …until the Earth drops off into the next Ice Age (having left the intervening Interglacial). Then it’s a completely different “ball game”.

    • A professional made piece of paid propaganda performed with the typical method of smearing the sceptic side, but as often done by cherry-picking the facts.
      For instance: What about the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) which can not explained by Milankovic cycles?
      The MWP is a big problem for the alarmist side or why else the famous quote “we must get rid of the Medieval Warmth” in the climate gate emails?

  6. Now let me see, someone up there is having fun, I seem to recall yesterday the TV news screaming that the latest beanfeast had produced a “we are all going to die !”

    “OVERTHMOON” himself was wetting his pants in a rear show of emotion, he said that, we have to produce zero carbon by the turn of the century ////////
    Zero Carbon by the end of the century ??? we are all going to die

  7. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/10/11/agricultural-losses-in-2014-due-to-cold-temperatures/#comment-1759748

    I wrote this twelve years ago in an article published Sept 1, 2002 in the Calgary Herald:

    “There is even strong evidence that human activity is not causing serious global warming.”

    “If solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2 [as I believe], we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”

    **********

    Regrets… I was really hoping to be wrong about this prediction…

    • I wonder what Dr David Viner was thinking when he made that remark.

      Was he thinking he would be like Michael Fish – famous for eternity if it turned out he had made a huge weather gaffe or did he really believe the statement he was making?

      If the latter, it goes to show there are some pretty gullible people even if they do have ‘Dr’ in front of their name.

  8. During the planet warmup, which continued through the 20th century, land warmed faster than the oceans. During the cool down, land will (initially) cool faster than the oceans. It looks to be happening.

    The two drivers that explain climate change with 95% correlation since before 1900 and why CO2 change is not a driver are shown at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com

  9. WUWT
    Reduced sunspot count shows Solar hibernation is occurring …

    Hibernation? Can you explain that?

    Solar activity of Cycle 24 seems to be near the 11-year maximum. Recent activity is comparable to Cycle 20 (circa 1970). Right now the SN=91 and SFI=124.

    Activity was a lot lower during the solar minima (green circles), when it seems that the Sun was really “hibernating”. Was there any cooling then?

      • Ok, you’re showing us the ‘hibernating’ Ap Index. How does that explain Reduced sunspot count shows Solar hibernation is occurring…”

        The Ap index is a daily measure of geomagnetic storm activity on Earth, not a count of sunspots. As you can see in this plot, the Ap is only loosely correlated with sunspot activity.

        So the “sunspot count” does not explain the recent exceptionally negative Ap anomaly. The Ap Index has more do to with solar wind and other geomagnetic disturbances in the magnetosphere and on the Earth.

    • Have you not considered that the energy from the high periods of activity go in to the Oceans and buffer the low periods.
      But if you have a low “high” period there is less buffering so the Oceans give up their heat much quicker and the world cools.

      • “…so the Oceans give up their heat much quicker and the world cools.”

        You seem to be saying that when a large object “gives up heat” (i.e. radiates), the objects around it get relatively cooler?

        Wouldn’t they get relatively warmer? I.e., trying to reach equilbrium, to satisfy the First Law of Thermodynamics?

      • Johanus, of course it causes the atmosphere to get warmer and where the hell do you think that “warmth” goes to at night?
        Straight out to space to be lost to the Climate system, the whole system gets cooler.You just needed to complete the thermodynamics cycle to understand the process.

      • There is a physical reason (a missing mechanism) as to why there is a delay in cooling (a mechanism that removes cloud forming ions from the atmosphere). The missing mechanism, is the physical reason why the geomagnetic north pole drift velocity increased by a factor of 10 starting in the 1990’s) and is the physical reason why the geomagnetic field intensity is now dropping at 5%/decade as opposed to 5%/century. Abrupt cyclic cooling climate changes correlates with abrupt unexplained changes to geomagnetic field intensity and field orientation.

        The solar magnetic cycle is not slowing down, it has been interrupted. Look at the solar large scale polar field. The sun will be spotless by this time next year.
        http://www.solen.info/solar/polarfields/polar.html

        The sudden and unexplained cooling of the Southern hemisphere will be followed by sudden and unexplained cooling of the Northern hemisphere. There is an interesting reason why the cooling due to this special abrupt change to the solar magnetic cycle is delayed by roughly a decade and why the Southern hemisphere cooling occurs first.

        The observed cooling will take place very quickly in a few years, not in decades. The initial cooling will be roughly 0.5C. 90% of the warming in the last 70 years was due to solar magnetic cycle changes not due to the increase in atmospheric CO2. If and when there is unequivocal observational evidence of significant cooling I will explain the mechanisms in detail and what to expect next.

        Comments:
        Cloud cover is also affected/modulated by solar wind bursts which create a space charge differential in the ionosphere which causes a electric current to flow from the poles of the planet to the equator (return path is through the ocean.) This mechanism called electroscavenging (see attached review paper for details of the multiple mechanisms electroscavenging and GCR/CRF changes) causes high latitude regions to warm or cool and affects cloud properties and cloud duration times in the equatorial regions which amplifies or inhibits

        El Nino/La Nina events. Solar wind bursts are primarily caused by coronal holes (coronal hole occurrence and variance is independent of the sunspot count). What causes solar coronal holes and solar coronal hole variance is not known. The solar coronal holes for the last two solar cycles have occurred for some unexplained reason in low latitudes on the sun very, late in the solar cycle. The solar wind bursts from the coronal holes if that mechanism is not taken into account make it appear that changes to the solar heliosphere does not modulate planetary cloud cover.

        Solar heliosphere is the name for the magnetic flux and plasma that is stripped off the sun. The solar heliosphere extends past the orbit of the Pluto. The solar heliosphere blocks and defects high speed cosmic particles (mostly protons) that are called for historic reasons cosmic ray flux (CRF) or galactic cosmic rays (GCR). The CRF/GCR strike the earth creating cloud forming ions.

        As noted in this review paper solar wind bursts can remove cloud forming ions making it appear that high GCR/CRF does not cause an increase in cloud cover.

        http://www.utdallas.edu/physics/pdf/Atmos_060302.pdf

        Atmospheric Ionization and Clouds as Links Between Solar Activity and Climate
        4b. Altitude and solar cycle dependencies
        Ambient ions are continuously generated by galactic cosmic rays as noted earlier, with the magnitude of the
        ionization rate variations being a function of latitude and altitude. During a solar cycle, the values of Q vary by ~ 20 -25% in the upper troposphere and ~5-10% in the lower troposphere for high latitudes, and by ~4-7% in the upper troposphere and ~3-5% in the lower troposphere for low latitudes [Ney, 1959]. The effect of such systematic change in ionization rate on the altitude profile for the production of ultrafine particles has been studied by Yu [2002].

        5. The Global Electric Circuit and Electroscavenging
        5a. Modulation of Jz in the global circuit.
        The global electric circuit was illustrated pictorially in Figure 3.1, and a schematic circuit diagram is given in Figure 5.1. General properties of the circuit have been reviewed by Bering et al. [1998[. Earlier comprehensive reviews have been given by NAS [1986] and Israël [1973]. The polar potential pattern is superimposed on the thunderstorm-generated potentials. In a given high latitude region the overhead ionospheric potential, Vi is the sum of the thunderstorm-generated potential and the superimposed magnetosphere-ionosphere generated potential for that geomagnetic latitude and geomagnetic local time. During magnetic storms the changes in Vi from the mean can be as high as 30% within regions extending up to 30 degree of latitude out from the geomagnetic poles [Tinsley et al.1998].

        As indicated in Figure 5.1, horizontal potential differences of order 100 kV are generated, high on the
        dawn side and low on the dusk side, producing corresponding changes in Vi and Jz. The dawn-dusk
        potential difference has a strong dependency on the product of the solar wind velocity, vsw, and the Bz(GSM) north-south solar wind magnetic field component [Boyle et al., 1997].

        http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009JA014342.shtml
        If the Sun is so quiet, why is the Earth ringing? A comparison of two solar minimum intervals.

      • AC Osborn

        of course it causes the atmosphere to get warmer and where the hell do you think that “warmth” goes to at night?

        Only at night?

        If the atmosphere gets warmer, then applying the kinematics of weather, that warm air will advect or diffuse locally to warm cooler places, causing other surfaces (land, water) to warm up a bit. Clouds, water vapor and aerosols will also reflect and/or absorb the radiant heat.

        So it doesn’t all go straight up into space.

    • There was significant cooling during the 70’s. The scientists were busy screaming about the coming ice age during that period.

      • Ok, what about the 1950’s, 1960’s, 1980’s, 1990’s, when equally deep solar minima also occurred? There should be a readily observable 11-year pattern of cooling and warming. Right?

        The point I’m trying to make is that the Warmists wouldn’t mind having “solar excuse” to blame for hiding the GW, which would otherwise be killing us now, they would love to say. (They also don’t really like to accept this fully, because that means they’ll have to figure out another bully-forcing scenario to drive their wealth-distribution goals)

        I don’t think the Sun can be blamed for much of this cooling, if any at all. I think it’s mostly natural cycles driven by cloud cover, water vapor and aerosols.

        Think albedo.

      • What minima during the 50s, 60s, 80s and 90s? Now you are just making stuff up. The last relatively inactive period of the sun occurred around 1810 during the Dalton Minimum.

      • Turner
        ” Now you are just making stuff up.”

        No. Apparently you don’t know what a solar minimum is. (You might be thinking of “grand minimum”.)

        Solar minima occur during each solar cycle. You can see them clearly on my first chart above for Cycles 18 through 24.

        Approximately one per decade, as I was saying.

      • The ‘consensus’ at the time seems to blame the cooling on ‘pollution’. Which actually makes sense because aersosol pollutants can lower albedo.

        So I think the ever-increasing Chinese industrial activity might explain the recent cooling (i.e. ‘non-warming’) better than sunspot activity.

      • I meant to say “because aersosol pollutants can raise albedo” (thus lowering global surface temperatures).

  10. What the propagandists will say is that the earth really is warmer, it is just warmer somewhere you are not. And then they hope you won’t ask the pesky questions like “Why is the land temperature assumed to be the same for hundreds of miles in areas of sparse thermometer coverage?” and “Why is the urban heat island effect accounted for in the modern temperature record? Why are past temperatures adjusted down despite less urbanization?”

  11. The decline in solar activity during the 21st century correlates with an increasing number of reports in the media claiming that global warming will, “counter-intuitively,” bring increasingly colder weather.

    e.g., Before:
    Snowfalls are now just a thing of the past

    e.g., After:
    Experts quiet climate-change skeptics: Warming leads to longer cold snaps
    Severe frosts will be more frequent due to man-made greenhouse gas: scientists
    Cold winters have been caused by global warming: new research

    • The decline in solar activity global warming during the 21st century correlates with an increasing number of reports in the media claiming that global warming will, “counter-intuitively,” bring increasingly colder weather.

      It’s ‘all about the money’, Kwarizmi. Orwellian double speak (“Warming is cooling”) and classical fear mongering helps keep the publicly funded AGW feeding trough well supplied.

  12. The anomaly of ozone over the Bering Strait swells up. Polar vortex is inhibited in this area.

    To the southeast US will to reach successive waves of arctic air.

  13. All of this in what NOAA and NCDC will assure us is the Warmest October on record. More proof that Global Warming heats the air which holds more moisture, causing more snow. The Climate Fearosphere was right, all along.
    /s

  14. Isn’t unusual cold weather what always happens when the IPCC predict global warming……….maybe thats the plan after they noticed the correlation – keep predicting a rapid damaging rise in global temperatures and it slows down.

  15. Eric Worrall
    re the UK Telegraph article about global warming causing severe winters.
    As you can see they are arguing in circles . First they said that global warming would cause warmer winters . When that failed to happen they reversed themselves and said global warming causes colder winters . But there has been no global warming for 17-18 years,yet the winters are still getting colder . As you can see, they know absolutely nothing about climate nor what causes colder winters.

    Natural global climate cycles predict colder weather generally for the next 30 years , so some very cold winters and early winters should come as no surprise to anyone .. United States went through similar colder periods 1890-1920 and again 1955-1980. Global warming was not the cause then nor is it today

  16. I live in the south, and I’m telling you this was a massive story here. Columbia SC rarely gets snow ever. A suburb to the north recorded 6″ of snow on Nov 1st, smashing the record for earliest snow and largest Nov snow on record. This was every bit as big a deal as Snowmageddon a few years ago.

    • I grew up in South Carolina (Charleston) and remember, back in the late 70s, a freak snowstorm, maybe 5 – 8″ of snow. As MattN says, it was (and is today) a BIG deal. To kids in the south, skiing always requires a boat… ;)

  17. All I can say is thank goodness this happened. What with all the “run away warming”, we need these extreme cold snaps to keep up from burning up in some fresh, new, fiery hell.

    /sarc off.

  18. And just to show that for each and every cold event,, there is an equal and opposite warm event: London absolutely smashed its all time record high temperature for 31st October, being over 23C when the previous record was under 21C.

    • In the English ‘Midlands’ the Coleshill station recorded a maximum of 20.2 for 1hr only,not sure of a ‘Smashed Record’ for the rest of U.K.

      • The previous highest for Halloween Day anywhere in the UK was 19.4 C (67 F) at Margate in 1968.

        This year, dozens of places were warmer than this, with the highest reading of 23.6 C (74.5 F) at Kew Gardens in London, and also at Gravesend, a little further down the Thames. The record of daily temperature extremes countrywide goes back to the 1870’s so this is quite a dramatic leap for a national daily record in a country with such a dense recording network.

        The minimum overnight temperature on 1st November at St. james’s Park in London was 15.8 C (60.4 F), narrowly missing the UK record for the warmest November night (15.9 C at Eastbourne on 3rd November 2005.

        A cold front came through thereafter, and so the UK record for November of 21.7 C (71 F), is still safe.

  19. John P. Holdren is calling this “yet another wake-up call to the global community that we must act together swiftly and aggressively in order to stem climate change and avoid its worst impacts.”
    Oh, wait.

  20. SOLAR ACIVITY … BY THE NUMBERS: During the last two weeks of October, the biggest sunspot in nearly 25 years, AR2192, rotated across the solar disk crackling with strong flares. Spaceweather.com reader Sean Barnes has prepared a summary of the eruptions. There were 26 M-flares, 6 X-flares and, perhaps most astronishly of all, zero Earth-directed CMEs.
    November 2:
    http://spaceweather.com/

      • ren the entire sky was filled with “gravity waves” for several hours here today in N. Michigan on the 45th parallel due to protons and electrons that had elevated as your graphic indicates. ACE LE electrons went up as did ACE HE protons at the same time as the GOES data you shown here.

        Eventually partly due to your persistence people “might” realize that the solar wind is an important player in our weather and climate system too besides solar irradiance.

    • Indeed. We were fortunate to have encountered no CMEs when that ‘loaded cannon’ was ‘aimed’ at planet earth.

      • Perhaps some of the money being tossed to AGW should be diverted to protecting the power grid from a solar episode that equals or supersedes the Carrington event. Wow, by the time we made and installed the shielding devices we would have helped the economy and created jobs! We might also save our species from a near-extinction event.

    • Astonishing and fortunate, as we learned from the 2012 near-miss. Each CME clears the interplanetary media for it’s successor so if several CME’s had been geoeffective, we might not be blogging right now. We’ll see what activity this region still holds when it rotates around in mid-Nov.

      • Oopa… should have said several VERY LARGE CME’s. Seems to me as an amateur that several ejections from flares followed by the collapse of a massive equatorial magnetic filament would be something to worry about.

  21. As we Americans trudge off to the polls tomorrow, we should keep in mind that the greatest threat to human civilivation is, according to this adminstration, Climate Change. Also note that draconian measures to needlessly reduce carbon “pollution” will be implemented only AFTER the election.

    The Adapt 2030 video cited periods of cooling a driver of dynasty change over the past 3500 years. We can only hope.

    • Thanks for the reminder, Paul. To all in the US – do you want to see more government-funded climate alarmism??? PLEASE – PLEASE, vote like you mean it tomorrow! This may be last chance we have to stop the madness. Thanks in advance.

  22. Mods, thought the previous reply had disappeared but not so. So please remove the duplicate.

    Thanks &sorry ’bout that.

  23. Did the folks in SC get the irony of the weather mixed with IPCC policy war games aimed against them?

    • Already at a height of about 45 km you will see that over the eastern Siberian isobars to diverge. This shows that the anomalies are associated with the Earth’s magnetic field.

      • Those are isohypses, lines of equal height, not isobars. Everything on that chart has the same pressure, 1mb, so it’s an isobaric surface.

        The heights of isohypses are an indicator of temperature (think of a column of air as a kind of crude thermometer), so we see decreasing temps towards the polar vortex. As expected.

        But 1mb is the top of the stratosphere, bordering the mesosphere, which is partially ionized during the day. It’s not weather. Weather happens in the troposphere (1000mb to 200mb).

      • ren

        Troposphere only responds to the polar vortex.

        I think it would be more accurate to say that the troposphere responds to every force that drives the weather, given the laws of motion and thermodynamics, and the conservation of energy and mass. No other layer of the atmosphere can compete with this driver.

    • Who blamed GW on sunspots? Sunspots block upwelling solar radiation, so they’re actually cooler than the surrounding photosphere. In any case there is only a 0.1% variance in total solar irradiance (TSI) due to sunspot activity. Not enough to have significant effect on GW, IMHO.

      The polar vortex is permanent low-pressure area residing over the poles (very cold up there, right?), which occasionally meanders into the mid-latitudes because of Rossby oscillations in the polar jet. So if the polar vortices become less intense, then how does that make things relatively colder in the mid-latitudes?

      • Jet streams at the border of the vortex restrict most cold air from the Arctic Circle (polar night). When the vortex is displaced air from the Arctic Circle gets to the south. The offset is caused by an obstacle in the form of excess ozone (changes in temperature gradient) on the edge of the vortex.

  24. One week before the record first snowfall in Columbia SC, on Sunday Oct 26th, it was 87degF. The historical average high for that day is 73degF.
    So just seven days before the record snow, and for the next three days the temperature stayed over 10degF above the historical average.
    Then it dropped in just one day to 10degF below the historial average low and snowed.

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/columbia-sc/29201/october-weather/330679?monyr=10/1/2014

    It would be alarmist to claim such an extreme change was an indication of global cooling of the climate. The most that can be observed is that this is weather that is much more variable than historical records indicate is the norm..
    The cause is open to dispute.

    • When I first learned about aviation weather, the instructor said a standard day is 59F and atmosphere pressure is 29.92in/Hg the next thing he says is it rarely is a standard day.
      10 degrees above average, so what? that only neans there are an equal number of 10 degrees lower days.
      Averages and records are two different things.
      . Stop obfuscating.

    • I wager (a lot) that a 20-degree swing in daily high in “just one day” in S.C. is not only not unprecedented, it’s not even uncommon.

    • The joke of course is the CPC and their 6 – 10 day and 8-14 day forecast products centered on 2 November 2014.




  25. @Izen:

    Um “much more variable than historical records”? No. The historical records show that the weather has been abnormally placid the last 30 years or so. Look back to the historical records of the founding of the USA and there is a lot more variation of weather compared to recently. Very warm winters. Very frozen winters. “Year without a summer”. Scorching hot summers. Hurricanes that make “absolutely normal storm Sandy” look like a pipsqueek hitting the same New York / New Jersey coastal areas.

    No, not as ‘instrumented’ as today, but cerntainly very good historical records.

    So, IMHO, what this is showing is that times of high solar activity are times of mild warming and a placid weather environment (with more tornadic wind events but less snow); while times of low solar activity are times of mild cooling and wilder weather events (i.e. more ‘mobile polar lows’ with less tornadoes). In the first case, a relatively cool lagging ocean temperature moderates weather. In the second case, a relatively warmer ocean is driving a lot more heat out to space with much more cyclonic activity and ‘loopy jet stream’.

    Once the ocean cools to equilibrium with the new lower solar state, things ought to settle down some again. Oh, and UV heating of the upper atmosphere makes it puffier and we have more mild weather. Right now the atmospheric height has shortened (see Nasa reports) and that concentrates the heat transport vertically. Also, and this is speculation on my part, looks like it involves more turbulent air and more cyclonic air flow activity.

    But none of that is “abnormal”. It is just like it was long before most of us were ever around to see it.

    • Reading that, it isn’t as clear as I’d like… My speculation is that during high solar activity events, the mobile polar lows and polar air masses are less, but large cyclonic activity picks up to move the heat. So more tornadoes and hurricanes, but less snow and frozen air masses (and the rapid transistion when one runs over you…) During low solar activity events, the reverse: BIG arctic air masses traveling further and making more frontal activity weather and snow. But fewer hurricanes and tornadoes. Warm cycles have more cyclonic activity movine hot air up. Cold cycles have more polar air masses moving cold air out / down. Thus different weather effects. In any case, it’s all in the bounds of recorded historical events.

  26. The climatic significance of one-day temperature records in a densely populated region such as the Netherlands is virtually nil. And the same applies to snowfall records in the Atlantic seaboard of the USA. Let’s not go overboard with impressions based upon highly variable weather events.

    • Of course, everyone knows that weather is NOT climate — except the alarmists. And THAT, my friend, is the big problem.

    • I agree. There’s not too much significance to them, but it’s interesting to hear about national extremes being broken. At least it’s more informative than some comments such as “my tomato plants are late than usual this year”…..

  27. GotToKnow
    November 3, 2014 at 6:59 am
    “Are snow tires better in snow than 4-wheel drive/all wheel drive??”

    I would say yes, because 4wd does not help you stop or turn. Snow tires do. 4wd only helps forward traction in low grip situations.

  28. approx 9-10 inches here in central MAine 11-2 with lot of drifts. my crown vic had a drift sticking off the SIDE of it just under 3feet thick. Heavy wet stuff too, blocks in back with good snow tires I got stuck in driveway after moving 6 feet.
    the escape (AWD) with all seasons went thru it fine

    was w/o power and on generator for 27 hours.

  29. I’m not sure what you U.S. guys are doing wrong. Yesterday my wife sat in shorts in the garden. The October was one of the hottest on record in Germany. And we had no real winter.

    Possibly it is the faith we Germans have in the Energie-Wende and in the energy prices double high as in the US? Or is it the fact that we have increased CO2 output the last two years, and the U:S. have decreased It?

    To be fair: Our summer was below average, winter and annual temperature have a clear downward trend the last 20 years and the amount of snow in the alps have increased during that time.

    So our hot autumn is just weather. But is early snowfall in the U.S. climate?

    • Don’t like the weather? Just wait. Let’s talk about *this* winter in Germany in, oh, say, six months.

  30. Yesterday Nov 2 ABC news spent the first few minutes talking about the record snowfalls and low temperatures. The very next story was about climate change/global warming. I cannot figure them out. My wife wondered what it would have been like if they would have reversed the order of the stories.

  31. November 8 a deep Low-pressure area over the Bering Strait downloads the arctic air to north-central states of the US. All in accordance with the model in the stratosphere.

  32. You probably won’t post this because it doesn’t fit your narrative, but the data from Australia are now in from October 2014 and they just had their warmest October on record. http://www.smh.com.au/environment/hottest-october-on-record-in-australia-as-fire-danger-rises-20141103-11fzsw.html

    [Don’t be silly. The site rules don’t preclude reports of any kind. Our narrative, as you call it, is just comments, facts and debate. A hot month in Australia doesn’t disturb our equilibrium at all. Feel free to post as and when you wish to. . . mod]

    • I just thought of a novel phrase, see what you think …[ahem!]:

      “Records are made to be broken.”

      Well, what’d’ya think?

      Seriously, a new temperature record is broken every day – hot or cold – somewhere. And for every hot new hot record, a new analogous cold record was set at the same time. So, there was a new record cold October just set somewhere, I’ll wager what you have in your pocket.

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