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![Bill_Nye_Barack_Obama_and_Neil_deGrasse_Tyson_selfie_2014-998x665[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/09/bill_nye_barack_obama_and_neil_degrasse_tyson_selfie_2014-998x6651.jpg?quality=83)
So what harm does it do if Tyson makes up stories to fit his rhetorical needs? As an elite celebrity scientist who gets plum appointments, attracts a cult of personality, and hobnobs with presidents, he sets the tone for the rank and file on issues that do involve scientific substance.
Take a recent blog post from climate scientist Kate Marvel, of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and more recently NASA, in which she proclaims, “I Am So Bored with the Hiatus.” The “hiatus” refers to the failure of global temperatures to warm significantly since the mid-1990s.
I’m not sure anything could better capture the adolescent, “be one of the cool kids” style of the Neil deGrasse Tyson era than to proclaim oneself “bored” and like-soooo-over-this about facts that don’t fit your favored scientific theory. The only way to top this would be to write it in emojis.
In fact, the “hiatus” is a really big problem for claims that mankind’s industrial production is causing the planet to heat up. Historical temperature records show a slight decline in global temperatures from roughly 1940 to 1970, which is why some scientists in the 70s were predicting a new ice age. By 1980, there was some wavering between predictions of global cooling and predictions of global warming, but warming won out and hit the height of its vogue in the late 1980s and the 1990s—not coincidentally, during a sustained period of slightly increasing temperatures. But global temperatures have now been flat for almost as long as they were rising.
The Climategate e-mails show that this has been a topic of great concern in private discussions among the warmists, with one of them asking his colleagues, “where the heck is global warming?… The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” They knew that they had hung their argument on rising surface temperatures, and they knew that they couldn’t explain the recent stasis in those temperatures.
But evidence that challenges the prevailing theory bores Kate Marvel, who brushes it off by declaring: “No serious scientist truly believes that the slowdown in surface warming invalidates greenhouse physics.”
This is utterly superficial. The basic physics of the greenhouse effect are not the issue here. At issue is a whole series of more complex questions: whether the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is mostly attributable to human beings, whether that increase produces a large enough greenhouse effect to warm the planet, and whether any effect from carbon dioxide (which is actually a very weak greenhouse gas) might be offset by the enormous number of other factors in an extremely complex system. So to cite basic physics—a common trope of the warmists—is a glib and irrelevant answer.
Marvel goes on to assert that the pause in warming can be explained by “a massive increase in ocean heat content.” Well, all right, I suppose this is a plausible theory. But it is also a very new one—and only one of 52 different theories offered to explain the hiatus.
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Read the entire essay here, well worth your time. http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/17/neil-degrasse-tyson-and-the-science-of-smug-condescension/
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Marvel goes on to assert that the pause in warming can be explained by “a massive increase in ocean heat content.” Well, all right, I suppose this is a plausible theory.
Not really a theory, it is SWAG, super wild assed guessing.
Actually, I’d argue that’s exactly what is happening. That’s what happens during a negative PDO. What we are seeing is a roughly constant forcing with warm periods being warmer and cool periods being flat.
Therefore expect warming at ~half the rate of 1975 – 1998. It is warming but much slower than “expected”, and not at a dangerous rate.
How about scientific wild ass guess (swag)?
We saw somewhat the same pattern during the 1950s. Negative PDO, but not much decline in temps (though there was an initial drop prior to 1950).
Then when PDO wnet positive there was “double-warming” then flat and so on and so forth. A lukewarming result topping out well under 2C, at a guess.
But not nothing.
Apparently Wikipedia has been infected by “I enjoy my smugness, my smugness is like a holy halo of know it all-ism.” editors. The link below points to factual updates being consistently deleted of Tysons record of taking non-factual pot-shots at opponents. Sad day for Wikipedia.
http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/18/why-is-wikipedia-deleting-all-references-to-neil-tysons-fabrication/
“If you feel…the world is a tragedy. If you think…it is a comedy” – fortune cookie
“In the public square, science has decended from the glory of a moon landing and organ transplants to the tragic comedy of climate change.” – Alx
Nice of Obama to appear for a photo op with his “useful idiots”.
That these “scientists” are outright and willfully lying about the nature of climate alarm skepticism was revealed by physics degree holder and science writer David Appell, who in 2012 when exasperated with skeptical blogs, both parroted the slander that mainstream skeptics are Sky Dragon mavericks, but added suggestions from Michael Mann himself that skepticism be itself declared illegal. No technically trained insider like David Appell or Kate Marvel can feign ignorance about the core of climate alarm being water vapor amplification of the old school greenhouse effect, not the greenhouse effect itself. These people are simply evil and have declared war on both cheap energy production and on the reputations of climate alarm skeptics. They really are “climate Nazis,” not even pretending to do real science any more, but now fabricating things wholesale, fake hockey stick blades and fake 97% consensus claims, knowing the media won’t call their bluff because they are also college degree indoctrinated activists.
I’m afraid the big rebellion against progressive activism in the media will come out of other subcultures, not skepticism, since skeptics simply refuse to organize on social media and carry out pointed, on topic, direct exposure of fraud, along with serious boycotting campaigns against advertisers in popular science magazines. I’m just about the only well read skeptic on the two billion dollar media empire VICE.com, even though they don’t even moderate. But when I’m so isolated, I am likely just seen as a lone voice crackpot. The vigorous #gamergate rebellion against journalists puts climate skeptics to shame.
http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2012/09/the-charlesh-problem.html
David Appell quote: “They are too many, and too stupid. So what to do about them?
I don’t know. Donald Brown, the philosopher at Penn State who has been writing about the ethics of climate change for well over a decade — I interviewed him in the early 2000s — thinks they are perhaps guilty of crimes against humanity.
Are they? Are Anthony Watts and Marc Morano and Tom Nelson and Steve Goddard smart enough to be guilty of climate crimes?
I think so. You can’t simply claim that CO2 isn’t a greenhouse gas.
I think they’re crimes will be obvious in about a decade.
When I profiled Michael Mann for Scientific American, he said he thought it would eventually be illegal to deny climate change. I had doubts about that, but maybe.”
Neil deGrasse Tyson? Watch out folks, we got ourselves a bad*** up in here!
Kate Marvel, who brushes it off by declaring: “No serious scientist truly believes that the slowdown in surface warming invalidates greenhouse physics.”
Kate,
That’s idiotic. It amounts to declaring greenhouse gases are solely responsible for climate change. No serious scientist truly believes that. Ever heard of the Medieval Warm Period and Holocene Optimum? Lower CO2 and higher temperatures.
After reading the comments about Kate Marvel, I had to go have a look at her blog. I’m glad I did because now I know a bit more about the hiding heat. You see, Kate has a graph showing that the oceans began hiding heat back in about 1969 or so.
From Kate’s blog:
I am so bored[…]
No serious scientist truly believes that the slowdown in surface warming invalidates greenhouse physics, and the argument really only works if you ignore the massive increase in ocean heat content (I grew up in Ohio, so I, too, know how difficult it can be to remember the ocean exists). This is a picture I stole from the super-impressive Katherine Hayhoe, and it shows where all that extra energy is going.
[…]
Look, sometimes the ocean takes up more heat, and sometimes the atmosphere does. This is because the climate system is complex
[…]
But really, my biggest problem with the hiatus is that it’s really so tedious. Talking about it without mentioning ocean heat content and natural climate variability is at best disingenuous and at worst insane, but not in a particularly amusing way. What I don’t understand is that, once you’ve decided to sever all ties with reality, why print the same predictable attacks? If you’re going to make stuff up, at least have some fun with it.
note: At the 1st ellipsis, imagine a graphic showing where all the missing heat is going. The graphic is labeled Increased Heat Absorbed by the Earth (x10²¹), and has a rapidly growing blue squiggle labeled “by the ocean,” and a slowing growing green squiggle labled “by the atmosphere, land & ice”
or you could look at it here:
http://marvelclimate.blogspot.com/2014/09/i-am-so-bored-with-hiatus.html
Perhaps Kate could spend the hiatus looking for the missing heat. Heck, I’d be happy just to know why the oceans started stashing heat back in 1969, and how they did it. Maybe Zeke will be along to blame the Boomers.
I confess to ongoing fascination with the missing/hiding/mythical ocean heat from the man-made global warming conjecture, but equally intriguing is the way even ice has managed to eke out a small increase in its heat-absorbing capacity, according to the super-impressive graphic.
Of course, these are serious scientists with sophisticated models, so what do I know?
If Kate Marvel had an average I.Q. she would have said “all serious scientists truly believe the slowdown in surface warming validates the real-world greenhouse physics of more or less 1 C per doubling of CO2 and invalidates the computer-model greenhouse physics of exaggerated climate sensitivity. But common sense is most uncommon among warmists.
Is the heat REALLY missing or was it just never there in the first place !?
I’m betting that “heat” (noun) was never there in the first place.
NO “heat” came from the sun, so it ALL had to be created here on earth, by wasting the high quality electro-magnetic radiant energy that does come from the sun.
Not all of the sun’s energy gets wasted as “heat”; much of it is converted into bio-mass, both on land, and in the oceans, via various photo-synthesis processes.
And these days, a microscopic amount of solar energy gets directly converted to electricity, by solar panels.
It is ironic, that here on earth, in order to make use of solar energy (EM radiation) perhaps the highest quality energy, (besides mass), we first totally waste it, by converting it to waste “heat”, and then we try to recover some small part of that, but now restricted by the Carnot efficiency of this and that “heat” engines.
Even nuclear energy, whether fission, or fusion, we first have to waste as heat, before we can get any work out of it.
So no ! I don’t think the heat was there to begin with.
By the way; those of you who believe that some EM radiation IS “heat”, could you please define for us; what is the minimum wavelength of EM radiant energy, that IS “heat” and what is the maximum wavelength of EM radiation that IS heat.
Is 800 nm radiation “heat” ? What about 799 nm, of 797.314 nm; izzat heat ? What specifically happens, when you cross the wavelength threshholds, that are the boundaries of “heat” ?
How about the 2.77 kelvin cosmic background radiation; izzat heat ? Seems to me it would prevent you from getting down to an absolute Temperature of 1E-6 kelvin, or even let you freeze Helium.
How about whistlers, and howlers, and dawn chorus, and other forms of atmospheric EM radiation, that have frequencies, in the few hertz to a few kHz region; are they “heat” ? The infra-low frequency (milli-hertz) frequency EM radiations that allegedly appear before earthquakes; are those radiations “heat” ?
I’m having a hard time trying to recognize when EM radiation, is or is not “heat” (noun).
Now coal is not heat, but I can get heat from it, if I light a match to it, and burn it, but the coal itself still is not heat; nor is the shopping cart, that I use to transport the coal, and its contained chemical energy, out to my car., yet both seem to be transporting “heat”. Well a shopping cart would be convection I suppose, since it transports the actual physical “heat” containing material.
I’m confused !!
High school science: The conservation of energy dictates that the heat can’t go “missing”. If it ever existed, then it’s still here. If it can’t be found then Occam’s razor would suggest it NEVER EXISTED.
If Obama had a climastrologist son, he’d look like Tyson !
The answer is to the heat problem is here?
http://www.mentholatum.com.au/brands/deep-heat/
Here are details on Tyson’s inventions, which I’ve learned about from Michael Prescott’s blog at http://michaelprescott.typepad.com/michael_prescotts_blog/2014/09/wiki-is-still-wacky.html
It references this article, “Why Is Wikipedia Deleting All References to Neil Tyson’s Fabrication?”, at http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/18/why-is-wikipedia-deleting-all-references-to-neil-tysons-fabrication/, from which the paragraphs below come:
Here’s the third article by the writer in the Federalist, Robert Tracinski. (I linked to his second one in my post just above.) http://thefederalist.com/2014/09/19/neil-degrasse-tyson-and-the-metaphysical-dilemma-of-the-left/ Quotes:
This time, they thought the fund the “unholy grail” CAGW… but now they will have to keep on looking for the next false idol… just sayin’
Fascinating read. Have recently folded my tent commenting at a local news source. The true believers, when confronted with credible evidence that the Earth no longer has a Godzilla-sized fever, simply cover their ears, eyes and brains(layers of tinfoil helps there), murmuring their talking points in a cult-like drone and pointing to sources like the anti-Science Guy and Tyson. If faced with an advancing ice age, no doubt they will continue to deny the frosty evidence hitting them squarely over the head. Their answer to mundane issues like having their veggie garden killed by the cold and facing energy poverty is to add more solar panels that everyone else helps pay for, insist carbon taxes will teach us all and deny the cold, because NOAA just told them it’s been the hottest year ever and over 97% of ALL scientists agree, so anyone presenting any evidence otherwise must have a Cro-Magnon intellect(and probably should be committed somewhere to undergo re-education). In their euphoric state of swirling cognitive dissonance it’s impossible for them to reconcile how their coveted, yet feared Godzilla-sized CO2 is really just a tiny, harmless and actually helpful gecko. (And the poor gecko must go-at any price.)
Says it all:
http://americandigest.org/sidelines/neil-degrasse-tyson2.jpg
Yes it does, and so does his absence when I faced him with the truth, the science he was unwilling to admit –about how modern tires work in high performance driving. He’s a dud.
Tyson said “evolution is a scientific fact”. Who would deny that organisms evolve? Who would deny that climate changes? It’s the ‘how’ and ‘why, that is debatable in both cases.
I found the FB Link where Neil Degrasse makes a fool out of himself: I am not sure if everyone can see this response, but you can see him “stick to his guns here” and then see my response schooling him on why he does not understand what he’s talking about.
My father has the same name as me, and asked what I thought… I responded candidly.
https://www.facebook.com/mario.lento/posts/10202021542853371
Just another positivist.
Tyson and Nye are twits. Could that be a picture of a twit sandwich?
I know it’s late to post here, but I just came across this today and I couldn’t resist snarking about Marvel’s post on my own blog:
http://blog.peterdonis.com/opinions/science-heal-thyself-again.html
Basically, the graph she gives doesn’t show the oceans “doing more work” now; it shows that they did less work than normal in the 1990s–in other words, the period when everyone started hyperventilating about CO2-induced warming was the period when the added heat in the atmosphere was coming from the *oceans*.
Nice… +1