Laki caused 1783 – could Iceland's Bardarbunga Volcano trigger another 'Year Without a Summer'?

Eric Worrall writes: The British and Icelandic MET offices are expressing concern about the possible effect on the climate, of a potentially enormous volcanic eruption in Iceland.

Iceland-Bardarbunga-VolcanoAccording to The Express, a UK daily newspaper;

“BRITAIN could freeze in YEARS of super-cold winters and miserable summers if the  erupts, experts have warned.

Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts.

Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.

The first effect could be a bitterly cold winter to arrive in weeks with thermometers plunging into minus figures and not rising long before next summer.

The Icelandic Met Office has this week warned of “strong indications of ongoing magma movement” around the volcano prompting them to raise the aviation warning to orange, the second highest and sparking fears the crater could blow at any moment.”

The Bardarbunga eruption could yet be a fizzle – the climatic damage caused by the eruption very much depends on the scale of the eruption, the amount of sulphates and ash hurled into the atmosphere, and even the direction of upper atmospheric wind patterns.

But the potential for serious disruption to the climate – and potentially severe impact on Northern Hemisphere food production, even a new year of food shortages, such as occurred in 1815, cannot be dismissed.

The only silver lining is that, since Iceland is in the far North, the southern hemisphere will be to some extent insulated against any climatic disruption – so unlike the disasters in the 1700s and 1815, it should be possible for food from the south to help mitigate the effects of Northern crop failures.

One thing for sure – Dr. Bob Carter was right, when he warned that the world is unprepared for the very real risk of global cooling.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/13/prof-bob-carter-warns-of-unpreparedness-for-global-cooling/

h/t IceAgeNow

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194 thoughts on “Laki caused 1783 – could Iceland's Bardarbunga Volcano trigger another 'Year Without a Summer'?

    • Nope. Meteors are extraterrestrial. A meteorite is fallen meteor. It sounds like they mean terrestrial dust that is put into orbit. This sounds absurd to me. But it is a big change to see absurd alarms about global cooling. What a bunch of yo-yos.

      • No, meteoroids are outside the Earth’s atmosphere. Meteors are streaks of light from meteoroids that fall into our atmosphere. Meteorites are what they become when they hit the surface of the planet, including car windows and a few heads.
        The Iceland Met office announcements I’ve seen are reasonable, I think they are actually somewhat understated.
        I’ll go see if I can find a better reference.
        BTW, I think Bárðarbunga is going to have a caldera collapse, in fact, it’s already started, but in a peaceful way. If the 850m of ice in the caldera is penetrated by magma, it’s going to melt fast, release a lot of pressure, and trigger some awesome steam explosions. Not good for Europe.

    • By “thrust beyond the Earths atmosphere” they presumably mean “lofted above the troposphere”. Journalists are near illiterate these days.

  1. No. A meteorite is a solid piece of debris, from such sources as asteroids or comets, that originates in outer space and survives its impact with the Earth’s surface. This would be more like floating particulates in the troposphere / stratosphere.

    • I prefer to think of “meteorites” as simply other, (hopefully uninhabited) worlds, that the earth lands on periodically, in a catastrophic (for them) event.
      After all, it is those other worlds that get squished, and not us.

    • If large asteroid impacts Earth, the explosion could eject secondary impactors- I would call these secondary impactors, when they land, meteorites. Or these rocks are going at orbital and sub-orbital velocity.
      A volcano can have comparable explosive power [rarely] as large impactor, or volcano can explode so violently that it create something like as “secondary impactors”, so I would call rock which volcano ejects at sub-orbital trajectories, meteorites.
      But the dust from a volcano, is being sent into the stratosphere. So dust sort of like a high altitude balloon vs rocket launch.
      Or the volcanic “secondary impactor” goes into space and the dust is just going to high atmosphere.

  2. That unfortunately would make our efforts difficult for years to come. The warmists would spend the next Decade telling everyone how much Worse things will be once the cooling caused by the eruption has passed.

    • That would require their 100% erroneous predictions to pass well into 3 decades – how gullible do they think the rest of the world can be? They will be like the ragged doomsayer with his tattered “The end of the World is nigh” sign around his neck standing forlornly on a street corner.
      Give it away snakey kidz , the jig is up.

      • they don’t have to convince the public, just the politicians. Phrases like ” the people are demanding action on climate change” , that sort of thing. Since this issue is close to dead last in opinion polls, I wondered who the people are they are talking about.

    • The warmists will say that GHG caused the eruption. And what volatiles expell an ash cloud? Why..
      CO2 and H2O

    • I agree.
      It is very important that there are no major eruptions over the next 5 to 10 years, so as not to muddy the waters. We need a clean record so that natural variation (ocean cycles, quiet sun etc) can be studied.

      • Yet there are so many historical instances where volcanic and tectonic events coincide with the weak phase of the Sun. From that I would say that there is a strong probability that we will witness some amount of strong natural events. It also makes sense in that if the volcano/s is strong enough, in the right location, and strikes at the right moment to impact NH temperature just prior to the onset of a quiet Sun, then these events will influence the depth of the solar grand minimum that follows.

      • Meanwhile, average middle-class folks freeze in the homes during harsh winters because electricity and natural gas prices double from the EPA’s War on Coal and campaign against CO2 as a hazardous pollutant? I don’t think so. Elections matter.
        Fortunately, no one can control the climate, the sun, or the volcanoes. It does what it does. And mankind does what is necessary, we adapt.

      • Absolutely. I’ve written a brief email to the Head of Volcanoes, so please consider the next five years, at least, sorted.
        Mod – do I need to add /sarc?
        Auto

    • You can counter that nonsense with “if you’re right, then think how much colder we’d be if there was less CO2.”

    • Exactly. They will probably blame any continuing “pause” – or possible solar-minimum-induced declines – on the volcanic action, too.

  3. “minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.”
    Oh dear, I think the messenger has mangled the message. Anything thrust beyond the Earth’s atmosphere (what are they using for a definition?) and isn’t maintaining orbital velocity is going to fall back out quickly.
    The probably meant “stratosphere”, and even there, things settle out in a year or two. I think Willis says that even that doesn’t have much impact, at least he was quite dismissive of my write up about 1816 in New England.
    Actually, this is the first I’ve heard of volcanic eruptions and chaotic weather patterns. I’d like to see some references. I think 1816 had a pronounced meridional flow, hence the pattern of some decently warm weather followed by a cold front and freezing weather behind it. Also, I think the storm track was displaced southward, aiding the active weather.

    • Oops – I meant beyond the troposphere and into the stratosphere. Aerosols in the troposphere wash out quickly, the stratosphere is the only region where aerosols settle out slowly.

      • We knew what you meant. And your facts are directionally correct. I have a chapter on volcanic aerosols in the satellite era in the upcoming book. Main purpose was to expose atrocious science by press release from none other than UC, home of UCAR. Busts the pause caused by volcanic aerosols thesis.

    • Several commenters above have mentioned the possible connection of volcanic and tectonic events, and a weaker Sun,
      I believe the New Madrid earthquake occurred in 1815.
      Any comments on possible relataions to solar activity?

  4. Other volcanic eruptions have a cooling effect primarily on the following summer, and then a greatly diminishing effect through only the next few years. But this volcanic eruption will have a much longer lasting effect?:
    “Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.”
    Perhaps someone is hoping for a way to explain the weather not living up to certain expectations!

  5. No, no, no, volcanoes irrelevent. The only thing on earth that affects climate is CO2, I mean wait, wait, the only thing on earth that affects climate is man-made CO2. There that’s better and eveyone knows that. If they don’t know that, they probably don’t know to read or add numbers past 50.
    end tag /smug
    Meanwhile did Gore really build his carbon spewing mansion near the shore? If so, ain’t that all the proof we need that the sea-level rising crisis is a myth? Gore likes making money and he knows shore property values will remain at a premium into the foreseeable future or more likely til the end of mankind.

  6. Fun to speculate, but as has been noted, decades of chaotic weather (whatever that means exactly) is a stretch to say the least.

  7. It’s possible the alarmists are setting up an excuse for the cold weather that seems to be coming. This way the IPCC warning might still seem credible

    • Equatorial volcanos can cause longer term climate disruption. With enough sulfur rich atmospheric material to cause a thick veil, and additional volcanic belching to keep it restocked, the normal recharge function of the solar-oceanic connection around the equatorial belt is disrupted. Then, as the disrupted less-recharged ocean circulates around the globe, there is a domino affect on weather patterns.

  8. The Thing is… If future cooling of the planet is next, there have been lots of Solar explanations put forward years ahead of any volcanic forcing, this silliness need to stop. Volcanoes go off all the time, there are hundreds erupting at anytime around the planet, people are playing with several minor gas forcing scenarios to counter act and balance their own illiterate nonsense/claims, as if one gas blocks the sun and another magnifies the sun.. It’s still the sun.

  9. The Icelandic Met office hasn’t gotten very excited yet. Their most recent status is at http://en.vedur.is/media/jar/Factsheet_Bardarbunga_20140919.pdf and says:

     The volcanic eruption in Holuhraun continues with similar rate as last few days.
     The subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera continues with same rate as before.
     Seismic activity has been rather intensive over the last 24 hours. The biggest was M5,3 at 14:21 yesterday and another one was measured M4,7 at 06:44 this morning. In total 10 earthquakes larger then M3,0 were detected in Bardarbunga since our last meeting. Smaller earthquakes were detected in Dyngjujokull glacier and in north part of the dyke.
     GPS monitoring continue to show irregularity in in the crustal movements over the last few days. This sign could indicate that the magma movement under Bardarbunga is changing.
     No change was detected in water monitoring.
     Chemical analysis and modelling, of the magma coming up in the Holuhraun eruption, indicates that the magma is coming up from a depth of more than 10 km.

    Their most likely scenarios are unchanged:

     The eruption on Holuhraun declines gradually and subsidence of the Bardarbunga caldera stops.
     Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, prolonging or strengthening the eruption on Holuhraun. In this situation, it is likely that the eruptive fissure would lengthen southwards under Dyngjujokull, resulting in a jokulhlaup [glacial meltwater flood] and an ash-producing eruption. It is also possible that eruptive fissures could develop in another location under the glacier.
     Large-scale subsidence of the caldera occurs, causing an eruption at the edge of the caldera. Such an eruption would melt large quantities of ice, leading to a major jokulhlaup, accompanied by ashfall.
    Other scenarios cannot be excluded.

    • I’m no volcanologist, but magma from more than 10km implies more dissolved gases =’s more problems at the surface. Deeper magma flow means more extensive sourcing more heat. Corrections anyone?

      • Actually the composition of the magma is not dependent on the depth of the magma chamber. It is determined by other factors. There is little basis for supposing that this situation will lead to the sort of disastrous event sometimes caused by an explosive ash type of volcano

    • Yep, the Express has form on this. Paul Hudson’s blog has an interesting post on this , 20 Daily Express headlines predicting extreme weather, all wrong, often embarrassingly so.

  10. If the world is heading for a cooling phase then maybe the alarmist are hoping for a mega eruption so that the volcano can be blamed for the cooling and that they and their models are in the clear

  11. Basic Geology and plate tectonics calls into question their doomsaying. 1815 was caused by the eruption of Mount Tambora, in the Indonesia. Which is on a convergent ocean to ocean boundary between plates. This type of boundary tends to erupt the most violently. Iceland on the other hand sits over two plates moving away from each other, a divergent boundary which tend towards magma upwelling more than anything else. So just a bit of alarmism at its best.

      • Laki is thought to have put 15 cubic KM into the air over a years period, 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora put like 100 cubic km into the air all at once, the two are not even comparable. Laki was regional, Mount Tambora was world wide. Laki brought famine to Europe, Tambora brought famine to the world. Could this current volcano do a repeat of a Laki, and cause some disruption sure, though a year long eruption would give us time to figure out ways to deal with those problems. What we wont see is worldwide famine such as another mount Tambora.

      • If you look at the reference to Laki, one of the “regions” affected was North America – Benjamin Frankly recorded in his observations that he believed ash from Laki was the reason for the cold summer and bitter winter that year.
        So I agree Laki was smaller than Tambora, but you don’t need a Tambora to produce significant problems over a large area. If Bardabunga causes a drop in food production in Europe, North America, Canada and Russia, thats a pretty big dent in global food production.

    • Actually LARGE fissure eruptions are extremely nasty. Read up on Laki 1783, and that was actually smallish in a longer perspective, but it is the largest fissure eruption that has occurred in historical times.

  12. Sulfuric acid can stay in the stratosphere for longer than a year. So much so that we actually have a background continuous level of Sulfuric acid in ice cores, from which spikes tied to volcanic eruptions rise above background levels. Sulfuric acid reflects incoming solar light very well. Climate disruption is considered to be a given when these sulfur dioxide rich volcanos blow their top with a big enough bang to send sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere in large quantities where it forms sulfuric acid droplets known as a volcanic “veil”.
    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php

    • Therefor A volcanic eruption of that type will actually cool the planet more than it was already going to cool, see Climate Science is easy, just make it up as you go along. 🙂

      • Sparks, I fail to follow your comment. My comment on the volcanic veil and its known affects is not made up science. The reduction in solar insolation can be mathematically calculated and correlated with observations.

  13. This looks like a great area to get some research grants. “the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.” Salivating! Decades!

    • “Laki was the biggest Icelandic volcano in 1,000 years.” I don’t think there is a volcano named Laki, I think it’s the name of the village that had a front row view. The Laki eruption was a fissure eruption, much larger than the current eruption which is also, for the time being, a fissure eruption.
      Most everything else in the first 15 minutes was more reasonable, though it suffers from not having video of the Laki eruption (obviously). While I won’t hazard a guess as to what the current eruption will be, I will look forward to the TV program summarizing it. As of now, air space is open around the fissure, I expect some great video is being accumulated.
      I’ll watch the rest later.

    • The latter two thirds was fairly British-centric. I think it could have had more to say about the deaths of people and livestock in France, but it is from the BBC and England did have better records.
      A couple weather notes that I would like to see more backup for. The summer of 1783 was very warm, a high pressure system further east than normal brought wind over Iceland, Scandinavia, central Europe and into England. The winter was very cold. I don’t know if that’s a typical followup after warm summers. By then the eruption was over, but the video claims SO2 made it into the stratosphere despite there seeming to be no explosive activity. It does estimate that as much SO2 was released every three days as was released in the Pinatubo eruption, so perhaps the convection alone was enough to reach well into the stratosphere.
      The video didn’t report on weather changes further away, e.g. the low flow in the Nile that year.
      Whatever the current unpleasantness turns into, there’s going to be a lot of stuff to watch. I think I’m happy to be on this side of the Atlantic!

  14. “. . . it should be possible for food from the south to help mitigate the effects of Northern crop failures.”
    What area, or areas, in the south can replace a large percentage of the grains grown in North America?
    Who will decide what population eats and what ones starve?

  15. Sensational news reporting by The Express. The climatic effect of the Laki eruption in 1783-84 lasted until 1785 not decades. It did kill thousands of people from fluoride and sulfuric gas poisoning, famine and cold winters. Looks like Bardarbunga is one order of magnitude less powerful judging from 200-600 kg/s SO2 emissions. But volcanoes can sometimes pull a surprise like Mt. St. Helens in 1980.

    • It is the Daily Express. I’m just amazed that they didn’t work the death of Diana, Princess of Wales and the effect of a volcanic eruption on house prices into the piece.

  16. What is interesting to me is the process that produces Earths (Electric Magnetic Field) EM Field, it’s the same process that produces the suns EM Field, I’m open minded of the theoretical “Solar Dynamo” reversing the suns polarity, although I haven’t been convinced this processes begins from the outside in, on the sun, manifesting on a polarity reversal that resonates to its core, this seems back to front to me. The thing about the polarity of a magnetic field is that it can move an incredible amount of mass, and in return, the mass that produces the magnetic polarity will effect the polarity of an another nearby mass with a magnetic polarity.
    When you calculate the mass of the sun and the power of its EM field, it’s polarities should not be effected by the outer mass of the sun, whereby faster rotation of mass at the suns equator can not produce enough polarity to reverse the much greater mass in the interior of the sun.
    Of course, as a practical analogy, a small magnet can move a large magnet, But where does that leave the issue when the sun has planets?
    Also there is a fact, when magnetic polarities interact over a period they eventually degauss them selves, and on a planetary scale even “polartize” themselves, either way this process should produce energy, Tectonic, Volcanic, warming, cooling?
    Get a grip!

    • On one of the space stations labs, I’d like to see whether a molten spinning blob of iron produces a magnetic field.
      According to my friends in astronomy, Jupiter has a larger magnetic field than the sun. Maybe they are pulling my leg. However, I’ve noted on the boards, Jupiter revolves around the sun almost in sync with the sunspot activity, and the earth’s magnetic field has decreased by 10% since 1840.
      Resonates? We’ve (not you and I, the others) talked about sound. Is that what you mean? I’m just asking. I have a lot more questions than answers. And since you are probably familiar, iron when heated up looses it magnetic properties. The earth’s core is supposedly iron. Which leads to something else. Both Mars and Venus had magnetic fields, they do not anymore, and Mars is more of an umbrella like in places. Interestingly both had water at one time, lots of water.
      I’m sitting here reading your 5 statements, thinking about gravity.. and fluid dynamics.

        • I’m not quoting or researching on Wikipedia….if I do I verify it. Without observing and doing experiments, you don’t know whether Jupiter has an effect on the sun, if it does, then it would almost certainly have an effect on us. And of course our little world passes it 12 times in its trip. Richard Holle put out a piece, from the boards, that tied together the movements of our moon and tornadoes. I knew about the 18.5 year complete cycle, but never thought about it in the production of tornadoes. I understood immediately what it meant because I had been thinking about it. Now, we, collectively, may know things but not how they fit. It would be just as easy to dismiss the lunar cycle not related to tornadoes until somebody sees a pattern. I’m sure that there is a lot more that we don’t know.

      • Thank you rishrac.
        I enjoyed your comment.
        Iron has nothing to do with planetary solar magnetic polarity, this idea comes from an early idea that heavier properties such as Iron are the same between earths core and it’s surface, where heavier elements such as Iron sink to a planets core, mainly of weight and composition, a Huge miscomprehension, Most elements break down under such heat and pressure for a start, and when it breaks down it is certainly denser than Iron. lmao. I’ve seen worse. (Read any text book on the planets, Neptune and Uranus apparently have rocky cores surrounded by ice. incorrect theories.. Neptune, is hot compared to Uranus etc..)
        We’re talking about enormous mass and pressures, hydrogen alone can be packed dense under enormous gravity, but sticking with polarities and more importantly, “the fluidity”.
        As it behaves both as a solid and as a fluid at the core of a planet or our sun. The interaction of mass and movement should reduce the strength of polarity. But we’re talking thousands of years for our sun, there is also another shorter term variability factor that the sun has related to the solar cycle.

    • Sparks, Are you related to Al Gore? He also mentioned the Earth’s interior was millions of degrees.
      http://www.examiner.com/article/al-gore-thinks-the-earth-is-actually-hotter-than-the-sun
      AlGore, “but two kilometers or so down in most places there are these incredibly hot rocks, ’cause the interior of the earth is extremely hot, several million degrees, and the crust of the earth is hot …”.
      You sound like you two had the same science teachers.

    • Geomagnetic storms can produce over 250 nanotesla magnetic anomaly on earth’s surface. MRI machines can produce 3 tesla. Assume a volcano is 100 sq. km. in area. The MRI exerts greater magnetic force than geomagnetic storm. Put MRI on top of volcano and see if it will trigger an eruption. I don’t think so.

      • I know where you’re coming from, why build these “colliders” when the energy observed in them happens at much greater energies above the earth every second, why not observe that? I was told it is cheaper.
        If you’re comparing an mri machine with hundreds of magnetic polarities and sensors to our sun, then this is not good at all, our sun has only two polarities. please elaborate.

      • The number of polarities is irrelevant. Magnetic pressure is directly proportional to B^2
        magnetic field strength = B
        Whether B is caused by a single magnet or thousands of magnets. We measure the effect B regardless of its cause.
        It is virtually impossible to conduct controlled experiments with cosmic rays. That’s why they built the LHC

  17. Since it is said that a single volcanic eruption can change climate abruptly and completely (albeit temporarily), I would like to ask those around here “in the know” to explain it in comparative terms to human pollution. Why does one matter and the other one doesn’t? The interest is honest.
    (Paranoids and catastrophists, please stay away)

    • CO2 is not a pollutant and all charges laid against it have now been dismissed, volcanoes and Chinese industrial pollution are a different kettle of fish.

    • Volcanoes loft SO2 into the stratosphere where it can stay for a considerable time. SO2 and other poillutants in the troposphere are washed out quickly by rain. It takes a massive localized heat source to convect material into the stratosphere, a volcano can do it, but not humans (fusion bombs possibly excepted).

      • Volcanoes can force dust and gas beyond the tropopause by the explosive force of the eruption, plus a little convection. A good Plinian eruption can go to 50Km above the surface. Yellowstone erupted with this force on its last active period. Due another soon.

      • Yellowstone is [not] “due” for much of anything, certainly not a supervolcano eruption. Most of its magmatic eruptions have been relatively minor events.

  18. lsvalgaard
    September 19, 2014 at 11:44 pm
    “Sparks, your comment shows that you don’t know how the dynamo works.”
    That would be your problem Leif. how does perpetual motion work on a star?

    • It’s not Perpetual Motion as stars eventually either run out of fuel and go dark or become unstable and explode.
      Think of a campfire as an analogy, either it runs out of wood and goes out, or it escapes and causes a forest fire and continues to burn until all the available fuel is gone.

      • A campfire doesn’t have rotating magnetic poles interacting with it’s own EM field. The “Perpetual” reference was about the suns magnetic field reversal not it’s source of energy. it was directed more towards Leif who would have understood it, as part of an ongoing interesting discussion.
        I will point out Leif is highly regarded and knowledgeable on the subject, So my own curiosity and questions may appear daft at times, at least I ask or inquire so to speak 🙂

  19. This would be what one Guardianista has called the horror of ‘negative warming’, a kind of warming that is more insidious and dangerous than the better known positive kind. But just as inevitable if we carry on offending the Earth Mother. Negative warming is a little known phenomenon with ice, snow, freezing rain, hail, all kinds of dreadful things. People think warming is only lethal levels of heat, but this negative kind is a real killer too.

  20. Genuine threat or not, I wouldn’t use a newspaper as a source of reliable information, much less the Express.

  21. SO2 is a minor irritant in comparison with Hydrogen Fluoride, which is a highly dangerous gas, forming corrosive and penetrating hydrofluoric acid upon contact with tissue. The gas can also cause blindness by rapid destruction of the corneas. I mention this for two reasons. Although 120 million tons of of SO2 were released during the Laki eruption, there were also 8 million tons of Hydrogen Fluoride released, which was devastating. The consequences for Iceland, known as the “Móðuharðindin” (Mist Hardships), were catastrophic.
    An estimated 20–25% of the population died in the famine and fluoride poisoning after the fissure eruptions ceased. Around 80% of sheep, 50% of cattle and 50% of horses died because of dental and skeletal fluorosis from the 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride that were released.
    I speak from experience about just how damaging Hydrogen Fluoride is. In 2002, I was unexpectedly exposed to gaseous Hydrofluoric Acid for 20 minutes. My lungs were damaged & since 2005 I have been incapacitated. Yes, I am alive, but the last 9 years have not been what I had planned for my retirement.
    http://emergency.cdc.gov/agent/hydrofluoricacid/basics/facts.asp

  22. Not this old canard about volcanoes again. The most severe ones have an effect for a season or two but the historic record shows it extends little beyond that. In this case and that of the supposed 1287 event the temperature had already dipped a year or two before the eruption and recovered afterwards. This has been the pattern in the observational record that I can trace from around 1100AD
    http://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2013/06/graph09.png
    Tonyb

  23. Never listen to any bold predictions made by the Express regarding weather!! Not to detract from the Bardabunga event that may occur…..however the Express is notorious from overstating what the weather may do in following weeks to fill it’s front page, the Editors really don’t care for real forecasts, just the story.

  24. I too agree with Bob Carter – we are unprepared for global cooling. Not necessarily from volcanoes – but from natural variation, This from 2009:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton/#comment-129231
    Allan M R MacRae (05:12:46) :
    ralph ellis (04:38:57) :
    >>If indeed we are heading towards a Maunder
    >>type minimum, the die off of humans will be severe.
    Why? We survived the Maunder Minimum in good shape, ready for the coming Enlightenment Era. Why will our age be any different?
    ***************************
    What worries me Ralph is that the scoundrels and imbeciles of the global warming cult are driving society in the wrong direction, and wasting trillions of dollars in scarce resources to fight their favorite fantasy – global warming.
    If this foolish and destructive direction is not reversed soon, I fear that humanity will suffer greatly.
    We are completely unprepared if severe global cooling happens.
    ===============================================
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/08/more-maunder-than-dalton/#comment-129302
    Allan M R MacRae (08:34:35) : Your comment is awaiting moderation
    http://bourabai.narod.ru/landscheidt/new-e.htm
    New Little Ice Age instead of global warming [PDF 429K]
    by Dr. Theodor Landscheidt
    Energy and Environment 14, 327-350. – 2003
    Abstract:
    Analysis of the sun’s varying activity in the last two millennia indicates that contrary to the IPCC’s speculation about man-made global warming as high as 5.8° C within the next hundred years, a long period of cool climate with its coldest phase around 2030 is to be expected. It is shown that minima in the 80 to 90-year Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, coinciding with periods of cool climate on Earth, are consistently linked to an 83-year cycle in the change of the rotary force driving the sun’s oscillatory motion about the centre of mass of the solar system. As the future course of this cycle and its amplitudes can be computed, it can be seen that the Gleissberg minimum around 2030 and another one around 2200 will be of the Maunder minimum type accompanied by severe cooling on Earth. This forecast should prove skillful as other long-range forecasts of climate phenomena, based on cycles in the sun’s orbital motion, have turned out correct as for instance the prediction of the last three El Nino years before the respective event.
    *******************************
    11. Outlook
    We need not wait until 2030 to see whether the forecast of the next deep Gleissberg minimum is correct. A declining trend in solar activity and global temperature should become manifest long before the deepest point in the development. The current 11-year sunspot cycle 23 with its considerably weaker activity seems to be a first indication of the new trend, especially as it was predicted on the basis of solar motion cycles two decades ago. As to temperature, only El Niño periods should interrupt the downward trend, but even El Niños should become less frequent and strong. The outcome of this further long-range climate forecast solely based on solar activity may be considered to be a touchstone of the IPCC’s hypothesis of man-made global warming.
    ***********************************

  25. I do not know if the heading picture is Bardarbunga but the volcano pictured is not causing a problem. The erupted gas is mainly steam here. The eruption itself is effusive which does not cause much cooling because the gasses and dust fail to breach the tropopause. You need a Plinian eruption for that.

  26. The maximum that Bardarbunga has thrown at us was a VEI6 in AD 1477. For comparison: Tambora was VEI7, Pinatubo VEI6 and Mt. St. Helens VEI5. So if Bardarbunga does a repeat of 1477, that would be something that could have serious repercussions. But that would only be in a worst case scenario: when the glacier ice comes in direct contact with the magma chamber beneath Bardarbunga, causing a big eruption. For now, it’s just a fissure eruption in Holuhraun, which has only local effects.

  27. Eric Worrall said
    “Laki, a massive Icelandic eruption, is believed to have caused a significant drop in temperature in 1783.”
    The UK was extremely warm while it was engulfed in dense low altitude sulphate aerosols during the summer of 1783. The cold winter of 1783/84 was primarily caused by the same pattern of short term planetary ordering of solar activity that caused the winter of 1962/63.

  28. “The Bardarbunga eruption could yet be a fizzle…But the potential for serious disruption to the climate…cannot be dismissed.”
    It would be a nice change of pace if everyone would stop with the hysterical weather predictions. Much of the first half of the year was spent on hysterical predictions of a catastrophic El Nino and instead we have a CA drought due to its lack.
    Two years ago the Great Lakes States were hysterical about “record” low lake levels and now they are all above the mean.
    So until this thing actual blows up let stop with the hysteria.
    Please.

  29. We predicted global cooling, starting by 2020-2030, in an article published on Sept. 1. 2002.
    The following post is from 2013:
    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1462890
    An Open Letter to Baroness Verma
    “All of the climate models and policy-relevant pathways of future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions considered in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) recent Fifth Assessment Report show a long-term global increase in temperature during the 21st century is expected. In all cases, the warming from increasing greenhouse gases significantly exceeds any cooling from atmospheric aerosols. Other effects such as solar changes and volcanic activity are likely to have only a minor impact over this timescale”.
    – Baroness Verma
    I have no Sunspot Number data before 1700, but the latter part of the Maunder Minimum had 2 back-to-back low Solar Cycles with SSNmax of 58 in 1705 and 63 in 1717 .
    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-indices/sunspot-numbers/international/tables/
    http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/solar/image/annual.gif
    The coldest period of the Maunder was ~1670 to ~1700 (8.48dC year average Central England Temperatures) but the coldest year was 1740 (6.84C year avg CET).
    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
    The Dalton Minimum had 2 back-to-back low SC’s with SSNmax of 48 in 1804 and 46 in 1816. Tambora erupted in 1815.
    Two of the coldest years in the Dalton were 1814 (7.75C year avg CET) and 1816 (7.87C year avg CET).
    Now Solar Cycle 24 is a dud with SSNmax estimated at ~65, and very early estimates suggest SC25 will be very low as well.
    The warmest recent years for CET were 2002 to 2007 inclusive that averaged 10.55C.
    I suggest with confidence that 10.5C is substantially warmer as a yearly average than 8.5C, and the latter may not provide a “lovely year for Chrysanths”.
    I further suggest with confidence that individual years averaging 7.8C or even 6.8C are even colder, and the Chrysanths will suffer.
    So here is my real concern:
    IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
    You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
    I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
    I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
    I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
    I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
    As always in these matters, I hope to be wrong. These are not numbers, they are real people, who “loved and were loved”.
    Best regards to all, Allan MacRae

    • Mount Tambora
      [Excerpt from wiki]
      With an estimated ejecta volume of 160 km3 (38 cu mi), Tambora’s 1815 outburst was the largest volcanic eruption in recorded history. The explosion was heard on Sumatra island more than 2,000 km (1,200 mi) away. Heavy volcanic ash falls were observed as far away as Borneo, Sulawesi, Java, and Maluku Islands. Most deaths from the eruption were from starvation and disease, as the eruptive fallout ruined agricultural productivity in the local region. The death toll was at least 71,000 people, of whom 11,000–12,000 were killed directly by the eruption;[6] the often-cited figure of 92,000 people killed is believed to be overestimated.[7]
      The eruption caused global climate anomalies that included the phenomenon known as “volcanic winter”: 1816 became known as the “Year Without a Summer” because of the effect on North American and European weather. Crops failed and livestock died in much of the Northern Hemisphere, resulting in the worst famine of the 19th century.[6]
      [end of excerpt]
      [Excerpt from my above post]
      The Dalton Minimum had 2 back-to-back low SC’s with SSNmax of 48 in 1804 and 46 in 1816. Tambora erupted in 1815.
      Two of the coldest years in the Dalton were 1814 (7.75C year avg CET) and 1816 (7.87C year avg CET).
      [end of excerpt]
      Commentary:
      So, for CET’s, it appears that the 1815 eruption of Tambora had minimal effect, since CET’s in 1814 were slightly lower than CET’s for 1816.
      However, the anecdotal evidence suggests that 1816 was a much harder year for humanity than 1814.
      What to believe?

  30. Reblogged this on Manuel Simonini and commented:
    Volcano‬ Bardarbunga‬: possible evolution scenarios, webcam live streaming.
    http://www.ruv.is/frett/another-eruption-if-the-current-one-stops
    http://www.volcanodiscovery.com/bardarbunga/news/47903/Bardarbunga-volcano-update-Holuhraun-eruption-and-subsidence-of-Bardarbunga-caldera-continue.html
    Professor Magnús Tumi Guðmundsson, professor of geophysics at the University of Iceland´s Institute of Earth Sciences and the foremost Icelandic expert on subglacial eruptions outlines the three following scenarios:
    1) The eruption at Holuhraun stops and with it the depletion of the magma reservoir of the Bardarbunga system also stops.
    2) The eruption at Holuhraun continues as does the depletion with an accompanying subsidence at the Bardarbunga caldera. (As this goes on, the risk of possibility #3 increases, our note).
    3) The deflation reaches a critical point where part of the roof of the Bardarbunga caldera collapses which allows water, liquid or in the form of ice, to interact directly with the magmatic main body. (This will lead to a series of very violent explosions which will only stop when either the body of water/ice or the body of magma are exhausted, our note).
    http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/2014/09/10/bardarbunga-holuhraun-update-140910/
    http://www.youreporter.it/video_Impressionante_intensificazione_eruzione_nord_Bardarbunga
    Bardarbunga11
    Volcano Bardarbunga: straeaming.
    http://www.livefromiceland.is/webcams/bardarbunga-2/
    Vulcano Bardarbunga, l’esperto: “il magma è risalito dal mantello”. Le immagini dallo spazio
    http://www.meteoweb.eu/2014/09/vulcano-bardarbunga-lesperto-magma-risalito-dal-mantello-immagini-dallo-spazio/319703/
    Volcano Bardarbunga: info.
    http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com/info-on-bardarbunga/
    Poco dopo la mezzanotte di venerdì 29/08/2014 è iniziata una piccola eruzione con emissione di lava e fumo da fratture in prossimità del vulcano.
    Il traffico aereo al momento non ha subito ritardi, anche se l’allarme è tornato al livello rosso. Nei prossimi giorni ci si può aspettare un peggioramento a causa dei venti che potrebbero spingere la nube di ceneri verso sud, sull’oceano atlantico.
    A livello locale il maggior rischio è costituito dai ghiacci che ricoprono il vulcano che potrebbero sciogliersi a causa dell’eruzione provocando allagamenti.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/icelandic-bardarbunga-volcano-erupts-2014-8
    Nel caso si verificasse lo scenario N° 3. Il problema è serio anche per quanto riguarda il clima, se la quantità di ceneri immesse in atmosfera fosse davvero abbondante, potrebbe influenzare il clima di tutta l’Europa provocando una piccola era glaciale nei prossimi anni. I danni economici, soprattutto per l’agricoltura sarebbero enormi.

  31. I find this piece in Wikipedia rather amusing:
    “Sir John Cullum of Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, England, recorded his observations on 23 June 1783 (the same date on which Gilbert White noted the onset of the unusual atmospheric phenomena), in a letter to Sir Joseph Banks, then President of the Royal Society
    …‘about six o’clock, that morning, I observed the air very much condensed in my chamber-window; and, upon getting up, was informed by a tenant that finding himself cold in bed, about three o’clock in the morning, he looked out at his window, and to his great surprise saw the ground covered with a white frost: and I was assured that two men at Barton, about 3 miles (4.8 km) off, saw in some shallow tubs, ice of the thickness of a crown-piece.”
    Daily mean CET for the 21st June 1783 was 12.4°C, but by the 23rd June it had risen to 17.2°C. The monthly mean for July 1783 at 18.8°C, was not beaten until 1983, and one more time in 2006. While the Rev Gilbert White reports that the pavements were hot enough to cook meat on, the learned folk at the Royal Society decided that all that smog dimming the Sun should be causing cold weather, and either mistook ash deposits for frost, or the year is wrong and it was in June 1784.

  32. If the volcano does erupted, what can we do to protect ourselves. Because we have loads of discussion about how bad it will or could be but what about what we could do. I bet the government have a plan in action and place to go when shit hits the fan. But the the government won’t tell anyone they are only going to save their own arse. Could we build buildings to protect from the bad weather etc. Or am I being stupid?

  33. Just think of the eruption as a runaway 100GW powerstation.
    All the geothermal fans must be very enthusiastic.

  34. Sorry, but volcanoes have nothing like the catastrophic effect on the weather claimed in the head post. The most powerful volcano of modern times, Pinatubo, scarcely caused a perceptible disturbance in the force. I’ve written a number of posts on the subject of volcanoes. In chronological order they are:
    Overshoot and Undershoot
    Prediction is hard, especially of the future.
    Volcanic Disruptions
    Dronning Maud Meets the Little Ice Age
    Missing the Missing Summer
    New Data, Old Claims About Volcanoes
    BEST, Volcanoes and Climate Sensitivity
    Volcanic Corroboration
    Volcanoes: Active, Inactive, and Retroactive
    Stacked Volcanoes Falsify Models
    The Eruption Over the IPCC AR5
    Volcanoes Erupt Again
    Eruptions and Ocean Heat Content
    Short answer? The effect of the volcanoes is small, local, and transient … and most volcanoes cannot be identified in the temperature records, they make no more difference than the natural temperature fluctuations.
    w.

      • Thanks, Bill. I can see that an eruption the size of the Yellowstone Caldera would definitely affect the weather by some measurable amount in given locations.
        What happens globally, however, is that when the incoming sunlight goes down for any reason, the tropical clouds form later in the day. This lets in additional hours of sunlight, and the energy balance is maintained. See my post cited above called “Volcanoes Erupt Again” for an example of this process at work.
        w.

      • How long does it take for the compensating heating in the tropics to reach temperate zones? For that matter, how does it heat northern areas (e.g. Europe and Canada, or latitudes 45-55) without affecting southern areas, say latitudes 30-40?

      • Willis, if additional hours of sunlight are themselves diminished by a stratospheric veil, I don’t see where your “balance” is achieved.

      • Pamela Gray September 20, 2014 at 3:14 pm

        Willis, if additional hours of sunlight are themselves diminished by a stratospheric veil, I don’t see where your “balance” is achieved.

        More hours times less sunlight = no change. Not sure where your problem is.
        All the best,
        w.

      • Ulrich, while I have made many errors in my scientific work, as has any serious scientist, I don’t deal in trickery of any kind, interesting or not.
        In addition, I have no clue what you are calling “trickery”, your comment is far too vague.
        Your unexplained accusation is unwarranted, wrong, and most unpleasant, and I have no interest in further discussion.
        If you want to apologize and start over, fine. I’m happy to discuss any error I might have made in re Hohenpeissenberg. Otherwise … bye bye, go insult someone else, I’ve got no time for sleazy accusations.
        w.

      • Ulrich, accusing someone of “trickery” is indeed accusing them of deliberate deception. That’s what trickery means, look it up. Sorry, I don’t buy that you meant something else.
        I’m still waiting for an apology.
        Sadly,
        w.

    • Willis, it is obvious that you had made an oversight (which I have pointed out) and were not deliberately being deceptive, so no apology is due. But nonetheless, your conclusions did have the value of a conjuring trick, even though unintentional. And please could you have the courtesy to spell my name correctly.

      • Ulric, you falsely accused me of trickery. From the dictionary:

        trick·er·y
        ˈtrikərē
        noun
        the practice of deception.
        “the dealer resorted to trickery”
        synonyms: deception, deceit, dishonesty, cheating, duplicity, double-dealing, legerdemain, sleight of hand, guile, craftiness, deviousness, subterfuge, skulduggery, chicanery, fraud, fraudulence, swindling;

        In other words, you falsely accused me of deception, or deceit, or dishonesty, or cheating, or duplicity. I still await your apology. Perhaps it was totally unintentional, like accidentally stepping on someone’s toe … and just as I would in that case, I still await your apology. Perhaps you didn’t realize what the word meant. I still await your apology.
        Because when you insult a man with a false accusation, deliberately or not, whether you meant to or not, whether you understood what you were saying or not, you owe him an apology.
        As to spelling your name, when you falsely accuse me of deception and deceit, and then you refuse to apologize for your actions, why should I pay the slightest attention to how you spell your name?
        w.

    • Willis said:
      “In other words, you falsely accused me of deception, or deceit, or dishonesty, or cheating, or duplicity. I still await your apology. Perhaps it was totally unintentional, like accidentally stepping on someone’s toe … and just as I would in that case, I still await your apology. Perhaps you didn’t realize what the word meant. I still await your apology. ”
      As I explained, you conclusions are deceptive, but in no way did I accuse you of knowingly being deceitful, as patently you were unaware of you error. So you can stop digging for an apology that is is not due, and hopefully man up and admit to the mistake that you made.

      • Ulric, my only possible conclusion is that you don’t understand English. You say:

        As I explained, you[r] conclusions are deceptive, but in no way did I accuse you of knowingly being deceitful, as patently you were unaware of you error. So you can stop digging for an apology that is is not due, and hopefully man up and admit to the mistake that you made.

        You don’t seem to understand that when you accuse someone of “trickery”, you are accusing them of “knowingly being deceitful”, in your words. That’s the meaning of “trickery”, as I clearly demonstrated from the dictionary. “Trickery” and “deception” are both things that can only be done knowingly.
        If your actions are not knowing, then what you do is called an error or a mistake or an oversight. None of these imply bad motives or an attempt to deceive … but “trickery” is deliberately trying to fool someone.
        Here’s a protip about the English language, Ulric, which you obviously don’t know. Trickery and deceit both mean that the person consciously set out to deceive people. In fact we have a whole list of words which mean the same thing, a conscious, deliberate attempt to deceive someone. Here’s the list, from my comment above:

        trickery, deception, deceit, dishonesty, cheating, duplicity, double-dealing, legerdemain, sleight of hand, guile, craftiness, deviousness, subterfuge, skulduggery, chicanery, fraud, fraudulence, swindling

        All of those, Ulric, imply underhanded motives. All of them include the idea that the deception is not accidental but is deliberate. All of them mean it’s not an innocent error, it’s done on purpose. All of them means that the author set out to fool people …
        So when you accused me of trickery, Ulric, you damn well DID accuse me of “knowingly being deceitful”, because THAT’S WHAT “TRICKERY” MEANS! Read the dictionary, my friend.
        In any case, you’ve successfully convinced me to give up paying the slightest attention to your comments. Satisfied now?
        w.

    • Willis, my comment “Interesting trickery” in no way accuses you of deliberately deceiving, it was a humorous play on your “trick questions” in your original post. But still nonetheless your conclusions are deceptive, as they do not portray the relative summer season mean temperatures in the series. This could easily misinform others, as did your comments about the NAO not being positive in July and August 2013, i.e. Richard Courtney.

  35. Willis, I will have to disagree with you. Catastrophic eruptions marked by significant sulfur emissions high up into the stratosphere have indeed triggered significant and in rare cases, global climate disruptions that have the potential to domino through more than a year after such an eruption. Why? Due to a significant stratospheric sulfuric acid veil leading to a diminution of solar insolation recharging our stores of ocean heat. The effect is especially significant when that veil, along with fine particulate matter, reduces equatorial insolation.

    • Pamela, always good to hear from you. You say:

      Catastrophic eruptions marked by significant sulfur emissions high up into the stratosphere have indeed triggered significant and in rare cases, global climate disruptions that have the potential to domino through more than a year after such an eruption.

      However, a claim such as you have made, devoid of data, citations, names, years, or locations, and without the slightest bit of actual facts, is less than convincing … I’ve given you 13 citations to my work discussing a host of eruptions. If you are discussing one of those eruptions, you’ll have to show where I was wrong.
      And if you’re talking about some other volcano … which one?
      All the best,
      w.

      • I have linked to many studies regarding volcanic disruption of climate and I know you are aware of those links and those studies. The 1257 eruption, one that volcanologists have been aware of for decades, has only recently been identified as an equatorial sulfur-rich eruption of the now ancient (and Crater Lake styled decapitated volcano I might add) Samalas Volcano. The following link will get into the research papers if you follow the links therein. Bottom line, it appears that sulfur rich extended ultraplinian phase equatorial eruptions appear capable of marked reduction in solar insulation. That alone will have local and regional affects immediately and eventually on ocean warming, especially in the equatorial band. And that would then have consequences on a global basis as the domino affect of reduced ocean recharge commences along the ocean circulation path.
        http://www.wired.com/2013/09/samalas-in-indonesia-identified-source-of-the-1258-a-d-missing-eruption/

      • Pamela, your comment was not directed at me but at the world. So whether or not I am aware of “those links and studies” is immaterial.
        However, in fact I have no clue which “links and studies” you are referring to. I deal with hundreds and hundreds of comments in a given month.
        Next, when I point out that your claims are vague and uncited, your saying that I should know what you are referring to is both meaningless and useless. I assure you, I don’t ask for citations because I know what you mean. I ask specifically because I don’t know what you are referring to.
        Finally, the link you offer to an eruption in 1258 gives only scattered anecdotal evidence for what it calls a “temporary disturbance of the world’s climate” … color me unimpressed.
        Yes, volcanoes do create short-term effects. The very rare supervolcanoes have a somewhat larger effect, and the 1258 eruption was very large.
        But in NO case does this provide support for the claim in the head post, which was that:

        Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.

        Decades of disruption? There’s no evidence for that at all, neither in your citation nor anywhere I know of.
        All the best,
        w.

      • Ed Martin September 20, 2014 at 8:12 pm Edit

        Pretty sure that Pam is not talking about just one lone eruption. They often come in clusters over a decade.

        Thanks, Ed. Pretty sure we don’t know what Pam is talking about, but since she’s only mentioned one volcano, I took that as a best guess …
        w.

      • That web site doesn’t like my old Firefox and chrome browsers, but I’m confident that the Bárðarbunga volcano is not erupting. It is undergoing a (for the moment) well-behaved collapse, but that could change at any time. Many of the magnitude 5+ earthquakes there are associated with a GPS system there measured a few centimeter drop atop the 850 meters of ice that makes the top layer of the caldera.
        The magma there and more from as deep as 10 km is forming a dike to the northeast, and that has breached the surface in the Holuhraun lava field as a fissure eruption (Laki was also a fissure eruption, it’s unclear if this will grow into something comparable.
        http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/ shows the caldera (look for green stars), the dike, and I think the fissure eruption is near the southern end of the northern most line of earthquakes.

      • Ric, I’ve been under the impression that the fissure eruption is toward the north end of the middle dike swarm. SSE of the Askja caldera lake.
        This map puts the fissure center at about 64d 52′ 30″ N 16d 50′ W. The lava flows from there to the NE.
        So the fissure is near the north end of the middle dike swarm, just north of the big ice cap.

      • Ric, you appear to be correct in terms of the sparks and magma not being from the caldera (but not as far away as before either). But the earthquakes are in the caldera and rim. Which are likely to be subsidence related. Those are the ones that if they keep going, could mean a caldera collapse is happening (slowly right now but it could speed up) followed by explosive fireworks from all that snow and ice capping the magma, IE BOOM.

      • I have lots of footage of the last volcanic eruption. Effaga-evaja ka-uul, evog-ull. you know the one.. Thanks, love it 🙂 I do like to keep an eye on volcanoes.

    • It is the first I have noticed the Bardarbunga2 web cam is on a programmed pan.
      There is a blinking marker (2 quick flashes, a second pause) that is in view for whole pan, on the left when looking at the fissure eruption, then the webcam pans left to put the blinker on the right. When it is panned right on the fissure, it zooms in holds for maybe 15 sec, zooms out. The whole cycle may be about 2-3 minutes long. This is new in the past four days.
      So if you click on the Bardarbunga-2 webcam and don’t see anything, wait it out a couple of minutes.
      There is a blinker visible in t he Bardarbunga-1 webcam, but it is a slow, single blink. This webcam appears to be non-pan and non-zoom.

  36. Been following the action on the Iceland Metrology site, http://volcanocafe.wordpress.com and iceland geology http://www.jonfr.com/volcano/ . Lots of knowledgable commenters on both sites.
    Looks like the biggest danger is if the eruption gets under the glacier, either along the rift or in the caldera. That could cause a very large flood. See the video Fire on Ice (uTube at 41 minutes) for what that might be like. A big problem for Iceland as some of the outlets go down valleys to hydro plants, but no danger to the rest of the world.

  37. Ah the Daily Express, that well known reliable source of weather forecasting and climate science – not.
    This is the same Daily Express that last autumn was predicting a Great Freeze in the UK, when actually we had one of the mildest and wettest winters on record.
    Anyway, back to Laki, yes Iceland is a potent source of potential short term weather changing eruptions. Laki was a huge eruption that affected the weather – and health – in Europe in the short term.
    I have a bit of eruption material from Laki in my living room – picked up when on holiday in Iceland in 2004.
    But it is pure speculation to say that the current rumblings will develop into a Laki situation.
    And even if there was a major Icelandic eruption, it will not have an impact on the long term rise in global temperatures due to rising GHG concentrations.
    The article is just another excuse for claims of “global cooling is on its way” as also predicted in this thread by Allan MacRae.
    Its all wishful thinking from those who have become obsessed in their mission to “prove climate science wrong”. However, the evidence is that warming is continuing (NOAA report for August 2014), just not as rapidly as expected.

    • You need to get a Geiger counter on your piece of lava from Laki. My bits of lava from Hamarinn in 1970 are quite radioactive. A lead box rather than the living room may be more appropriate storage.

    • Have they been telling you, James Abbot that your view of climate processes is wrong? Then perhaps you should listen – you could pick up some interesting ideas.

    • James Abbott said:
      “It’s all wishful thinking from those who have become obsessed in their mission to “prove climate science wrong”. However, the evidence is that warming is continuing (NOAA report for August 2014), just not as rapidly as expected.”
      _____________
      James, the problem is that NOAA, the Hadley Centre, the IPCC and all other warmist institutions have NO successful predictive track record – every one of their dire predictions of global warming, wild weather, etc has failed to materialize. I suggest that in science, one’s predictive track record is perhaps the only objective measure of competence.
      The fundamental problem of the warmists is that they insist upon modeling a ridiculously high Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) to CO2 for which there is no supporting evidence, and considerable evidence to the contrary. That, and the little detail that CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.
      An alternative theory that appears more promising is that atmospheric CO2 has little impact on global temperatures, which seem to vary naturally and somewhat cyclically, probably in response to solar activity. If that is true, then imminent global cooling, whether mild or severe, seems to be more probable than increased warming, after the current ~20-year flattening of global temperatures (in warm-speak labelled the “pause”, or the “hiatus hernia”).
      I hope that your NOAA citation proves correct, because more warming would be good for humanity and the planet. However, my bet is that we can expect mild or severe global cooling starting by 2020 or sooner, regardless of volcanic activity.
      Regards to all, Allan

  38. “Britain could face a freezing winter if the Icelandic volcano erupts. Depending on the force of the explosion, minute particles thrust beyond the earth’s atmosphere can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns.
    The first effect could be a bitterly cold winter to arrive in weeks with thermometers plunging into minus figures and not rising long before next summer.”
    Oh my oh my, the wishful thinking is not even camouflaged. The hysterics of our career alarmists and the $50million computer they bought to assist them! This will allow them to broaden their forecast range even to more ridiculous extents. The desperation, the straw clutching, is palpable. Let me make a prediction. When the cold weather hits as it must from things already in motion, you will see news reports and scientific papers rushed into print blaming this little volcano. We better send some fire bombers over to snuff this thing out. These guys would happily breath sulphuric acid fumes if it gave them an excuse to cling to their shriveled climate theory. Shameful stuff.

  39. Trivia department: The fourth character in “Bárðarbunga” is an “eth” not a “d” as in English. It has the “th” sound that you get in the English word “them” (except that no word in Icelandic can begin with an eth).
    If this interests you, see also “thorn”. (Putting “eth and thorn” into your search engine will get both.)
    Ian M

  40. “Ric Werme September 20, 2014 at 4:11 pm
    At least we’re sure it isn’t the $2.3M mansion in Nashville with the $40K per year utility bill. Hey, that one made Snopes! http://www.snopes.com/politics/business/gorehome.asp
    Snopes’ liberal bias makes them as unreliable as the Guardian. The article in this link spends half its time making excuses for Gore’s extravagant 12x energy use. Like the rest of is don’t have home offices!

  41. “…can trigger DECADES of chaotic weather patterns”
    Decades? We’ve seen over and over in the data that it’s only a couple of years at best. This sounds like a veiled attempt to excuse, or bet hedging, against any upcoming or ongoing cooling/stagnation.

  42. I found Iceland’s fake human driven forecast for 2050, part of a series of fake forecasts, each ending with Moonbeen’s call to action ahead of the Climate Summit. They predict forests, insects, and an agricultural boon. Sort of like when the Vikings had farms and……wait a minute……that was before human’s caused warming……..never mind.

  43. Since the “Iceland’s ‘Bardarbunga’ volcano is lighting up the night sky” thread is about to close, I’m going use this for further daily observations. Previous thread here.
    The webcam for Bardarbunda2 is quite good tonight. Zoomed in, bright fountains, glowing lava flows, wind blowing the smoke away. Most interesting I’ve seen in a week.
    Screen Capture
    Last 24 hrs quake activity:
    At Bardarbunga: one M 5.5 at 9 km, a M4.5, M4.2 same depth all 13-18 hrs ago.
    Three M3.5-3.7 between 2-5 km, 5-8 hrs ago.
    No activity to the west or south in the past 24 hrs.
    At the fissure, a Mag 2.2 at 4 km 12 hrs ago at the top of a pipeline of mag 0-1 quakes.
    NE of Askja, four small ones, Mag 0.5-1.2 4-8 km.

  44. Last 16 hrs:
    Bardarbunga: A series of 10 quakes Mag 3.0-3.9, plus two Mag 4.7-4.9 quakes in the past 4 hrs. Most at 5-8 km, one was 1 km.
    A couple quakes west of Bar, largest 2.2 at 1 km. some scattered small ones.
    Two small events south of Bar.
    The fissure has a typical swarm of small quakes. Mag 2.2 at 11 km was the biggest.
    What is unusual is that there were a Mag 2.2 (5 km) and Mag 1.4 (9 km) under the Askja crater, both 6 hrs ago. Normally the activity is NE of Askja and sub Mag 1.5 for the past week.
    We’ll see if it is a one-off.
    I have not seen reports about the fissure in several days, but from the webcam last night and comparing it to early September screenshots, it seems to me to be shortening in eruptive length.

    • This is a video of the fissure eruption which I highly recommend. It really shows that the scale of it is far bigger than appears on the webcams which are 20-30km away.

    • Two big surprises in the video. First, the length of the lava river on the surface. I figured it would have crusted over and become a lava tube most of the length.
      Second, the last 20 seconds of the video with a fountain higher than the helicopter.
      Metadata says the video was Sept. 20.

      • The lava field is now up to 0.5 cu km and, judging by the pictures from mila 2 tonight, the eruption isn’t slowing down any. If anything, it looks to be getting stronger.

  45. Past 24 hrs at Bardarbunga: at least 10 quakes above Mag 3. including a 5.2 and three above 4. All about 5-7 km depth.
    One Mag. 2 quake west of Bar.
    Very quiet in the neighborhood of Askja. Only three, biggest M1.4
    Of note at the fissure: A M2.6 at 13 km Biggest there in days.
    Long narrow pipeline of quakes to the surface from there.
    The map shows the fissure groups is extending SSW closer to Bardarbunga. But these are very small, below Mag 1.

  46. Past 24 hrs at Bardarbunga:
    Web cam has been zoomed out about 1/2 size than previous days. Lava flows to the left and right. A bit of vibration, though it doesn’t look windy in the smoke.
    At least 9 quakes between Mag 3.4 to 4.9 from 10 km to the surface.
    Biggest quake at the fissure was M2.1 and M1.8 at 13 km.
    Biggest around Askja was M1.0[.

  47. Past 24 hrs
    at Bardarbunga: Only 5 quakes M3+ from 0-10 km. One was M5.0. An unusually large number of Mag 1.8-2.4 quakes 5-7km in the past 5 hrs. I don’t know whether that is unusual or whether it is unusual to not have larger recent quakes masking the signature.
    Biggest at the fissure was Mag 2.4 (10 km) and two Mag 1.8s.
    NE of Askja: One M2.2 at 3 km about 30 hrs ago.
    the webcams were not noteworthy the past two nights.
    ruv.is published a video. Not exceptional. It has an animation of the subsurface plumbing.

  48. Past 48 hours
    At Bardarbunga: two 5.2 quakes, one at 8km, another at 2 km.
    Four quakes between M4.0 and M4.9.
    Six quakes between M3.0 and M3.9. Nothing deeper than 10 km.
    At the Fissure, activity is way down. only nine quakes at M 1.0+ Biggest M1.7 at 7km.
    Nothing shallower than 7 km in past 24 hours.
    Around Askja, only five quakes M1.0+ Biggest 1.8.
    Only one quake, M0.9, in past 24 hrs.
    West of Bardarbunga. seven quakes M1.0+ biggest M2.2
    No new news from ruv.is.
    Weather forecast has been for rain the past few days. I found no information about how much.
    The fissure is visible in webcam2, but it is not sharp.

  49. Last 24 hrs:
    They say there is no obvious decrease in lava flow out of Holuhraun. They estimate a total of 0.6 cubic km of lava has erupted. This is currently the 2nd largest eruption in 150 years. The largest eruption was Hekla in 1947-48 that took 9 months to extrude 0.8 km*3 of lava. Holuhraun could surpass that in within two weeks, a total of 1.5 months.
    No obvious decrease in lava, but an astounding decrease in the number of quakes today.
    http://en.vedur.is/photos/jarvatj_rit/140930_0320.png
    One M5.5 at 7km on the SE side of Bardarbunga
    Four midside, M3.9, M4.1, M4.4, M4.9 all stacked vertically NW of the M5.5 in the Bard. area.
    Only five M2.0-M3.0, and only twenty Mag 1.0-2.0, (some at the fissure) so few you can count them off the plot. I think the quakes at Bardarbunga are spreading out.
    The fissure is very quiet. only 9 quakes M0.6-M1.3, mostly between 7 and 12 km, one at the surface.
    Four M0.8-M1.2 widely scattered around Askja. Very quiet, very small.
    The Bardarbunga2 webcam is misaimed tonight and not very interesting.
    The Bardarbunga1 webcam is nice. A “light of the sky” shot with full width lava flow.

  50. Last 24 hrs: At Bardarbunga
    No mag 5’s
    Six biggest: 4.0, 4.2, 3.8, 4.8, 4.9, 4.2 3 – 10 km
    An M2.9 on the surface, plus M1.8, 1.9 on the surface.
    An M2.5, M2.6 at 20 km
    the fissure has a usual vertical pipe of M0.8-M1.4 quakes 5-13 km.
    Nothing around Askja or west of Bardarbunga.
    The shallow-surface quakes and the 20km quakes at Bar are the unusual aspects today. It is the first day without a Mag 5+ in a while although it just missed with a 4.8 and 4.9.
    Askja has been getting quieter for some days.
    The webcams are fogged-weathered in. Nothing in the news.

    • Looked at the baering/3Dbulge plot again this morning and a M2.8 showed up in the fissure group at 10 km, but “19 hours ago”. So it was a late posting to the database. The day before, there were two M2.2 quakes at the fissure that also appeared about 12 hrs late. Odd.
      three M 4.2 quakes at Bardarbunga in the past 8 hrs. 3, 6, 8 km.

  51. Last 48 hrs at Bardarbunga:
    Ten Mag 4.0-5.0. (Six M 4.5-5.0)
    Five Mag 3.0-3.9
    28 Mag 2.0-2.9. 17 in the past 24 hrs.
    Everything bigger than M2.0 is at Bardarbunga.
    New activity NE of Askja A vertical string of small quakes M0.8-M1.1 crowned by a M 2.0. at Long 16.35W
    12-7 km At least 11 quakes in the string.
    Close by the Askja crater (at Long 16.65W) there are about five M0.7-1.6 quakes all at about 4 km.
    At the fissure, a more spread out group than recently, at least 21 quakes of M 0.6-1.4. 5-14 km.
    West of Bar, 1 quake, M1.3, near surface.
    South of Bar, well under the glacier, 4 quakes, shallow, a M2.6 at 1 km followed by M1.4 at 2 km, M0.7 st 2km, M1.3 at 2 km. (Long 17.45W) The M2.6 is the biggest I’ve see in this location, but it is easy to miss. You have to look at the 3DBulge on end or they get superimposed by more recent quakes in the main crater.
    the webcams Bar2 is zoomed in, out of focus and dim. (rain/snow?). Bar1 is zoomed out, lava stream glowing across 50% of field of view.
    Nothing new in ruv.is news.
    vedur.is has a chart showing 9.25 meters of sinking of the top of the glaciersince 9/14. The rate is constant. The question is, how much of that is the caldera sinking, and how much of it is melting of the glacier from the bottom?
    Great Photo!!: Erez Marom Photography facebook photo page:
    ‘VOLCANIC SUNSET’
    An aerial shot of a new lava flow in Holuhraun. We were incredibly lucky to be there in time for spectacular sunset colors. What an evening!
    [Taken from above the yellow-orange-red-brown lava flow front, looking back along the lava river to the lava fountains with a dusky sunset behind it.]

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