Fitting the data to the theory
Story submitted by Eric Worrall
A Dutch Action is the reverse of a standard auction – instead of the price starting low, with each bid driving the price up, a Dutch Auction inverts this process – the price starts high, and slowly drops until a bid is placed. The winner of the Dutch auction is the first person to make a bid.
Something very similar is happening right now in the world of mainstream climate science, as scientists struggle to fit a growing body of adverse data to their increasingly shaky theories of imminent catastrophic global warming, by slowly ratcheting down their estimates of climate sensitivity, while doing all in their power to avoid conceding that skeptics have been right all along.
The latest bid in the climate Dutch Auction comes from a paper published in Nature. According to authors Markus Huber & Reto Knutti, if you dial down transient climate response to 1.8c / doubling of CO2, and conceded around 0.15c to a combination of bad luck (lack of El Nino events) and the drop in solar activity, and squint really hard, you can just about fit the data to the models.
According to the abstract;
“Accounting for these adjusted trends we show that a climate model of reduced complexity with a transient climate response of about 1.8 °C is consistent with the temperature record of the past 15 years, as is the ensemble mean of the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5).”
Of course, the abstract ends with the customary genuflection to climate alarmism.
“We conclude that there is little evidence for a systematic overestimation of the temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the CMIP5 ensemble.”
Added by Anthony: Here is a grouping of bids, er, transient climate sensitivity values with Huber and Knutti added as a vertical line in bright green:
Graphic from a discussion at Climate Dialogue
As you can see, the values have lowered since the IPCC AR4 report.