Story submitted by Eric Worrall
How do we prove climate alarmists are wrong? Let us count the ways
If the temperature goes up, this is just what the models predicted – watch out because …
…soon it will get a lot worse. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runaway_climate_change
If the temperature goes down, the deep ocean is swallowing the heat – even though the heat can’t be measured, we know it must be there, because that is what the climate models tell us. Global warming prevails! http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/pacific-ocean-and-climate-change-pause/
If the global temperature crashes, its because global warming induced melting of arctic ice shut down the ocean currents. http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2004/05mar_arctic/
If the snow disappears, this is just as models predicted – snowfall is a thing of the past. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
If there is an unusually heavy snowfall, this is just as models predicted – global warming is increasing the moisture content of the atmosphere, which results in increased snow cover. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/02/10/2010-snowmageddon-explained-sans-global-warmingclimate-change/
If there is a drought, that is because of global warming. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/07/21/causes-of-midwest-drought-2012_n_1690717.html
Except of course, when global warming causes heavy rainfall. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/13/global-warming-the-incompetent-politicians-excuse/
No matter what the observation, no matter how the world changes, we can never falsify alarmist climate theories. Any possible change, any possible observation, can always be explained by anthropogenic global warming.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/03/22/occams-razor-and-climate-change/
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Richard Wright says:
August 16, 2014 at 6:30 pm
Why am I not surprised that among the many things you don’t know is that RNA and lipid bubbles, like cell membranes, self-assemble, and that RNA can function both as a repository of genetic information and as an enzyme to catalyze and synthesize biochemical reactions?
The organic compounds which are the precursors to and constituents of RNA and lipids exist throughout the solar system. One meteorite contains dozens of amino acids and peptides (of which polypeptides, ie proteins, are composed), many of which don’t occur naturally on earth now that organisms are around to metabolize them.
Richard Wright:
Your entire post at August 16, 2014 at 6:46 pm says
Thankyou, that does explain your confusion: i.e. you fail to understand the difference between ‘information’ and ‘knowledge’.
Information is a statement or set of statements that has some meaning for its recipient.
Knowledge is awareness and understanding of information.
I know my endocrine system exist but – other than that – I have no knowledge of it. And I certainly have no knowledge of information by and from my endocrine system, but that information has great meaning for parts of me because I would be dead if it did not.
The important point is that the information exists whether or not an organism it affects ‘knows’ (i.e. is aware) of its existence.
As I explained and you quoted, information can be altered by random effects.
Some alterations can increase complexity of the information; e.g. replication error duplicates parts of a DNA molecule so the molecule contains additional code. And natural selection determines whether this alteration will increase in a population or be destroyed.
Contrary to your assertion, this is also demonstrated by computer programs. Copying errors may alter the behaviour of a copied program. If this is noticed by the program’s user then the copied version will be destroyed (i.e. natural selection) but if it is not noticed then the error may be transcribed into other copies of the program (i.e. natural selection).
The point of my solar illustration was to demonstrate that evolution is not unique to living organisms that utilise DNA. Energy, matter, atoms, molecules and living organisms have each evolved since the Big Bang.
It is NOT necessary to invoke a Creator for evolution to have formed Creation.
If a Creator was involved then it is obvious that evolution is the tool He has used and is using to form His Creation.
Incidentally, I declare an interest in that I believe a Creator was and is involved.
Evolution uses random chance. Perhaps you need to consider the importance of this. Assuming the existence of a Creator, then ‘free will’ is enabled to exist within the Creation of an omniscient Creator as a result of random chance operating within the duality of the macro-world and the quantum world. It is a solution to the paradox of an ‘all knowing’ being not knowing what you will choose to do within the space-time continuum.
Richard
PS Please note that I am not discussing religion in this post. I am comparing evolution and creationism (aka ‘intelligent design’).
richardscourtney says:
August 15, 2014 at 1:21 am
…
We do NOT ” know the earth is absorbing more energy than it is emitting back to space.”
Indeed don’t we know rather the opposite? Since OLR seen by sats varies in lockstep with surface temperatures, it is the default conclusion that any “additional” heat is radiated away more or less immediately
Brian H:
At August 17, 2014 at 1:17 am you say
Yes, indeed so.
And your point draws attention to the reprehensible nature of the series of disingenuous posts by Will Nitschke in this thread. My first reply to him was at August 15, 2014 at 3:06 am and is here.
Richard
In my opinion ‘Den1ers are Always Wrong’ TM, because anthropocalypticians throughout human history have perceived skepticism as a attack against The Noble Cause. Fortunately the modern times have the biggest enemy of anthropocalypse – fundamental rights.
Konrad says:
The very foundation of the global warming hoax depends on the calculation that the surface of the planet would be at 255K in the absence of an atmosphere.
I’ve seen a figure of 274K for Luna based on distance from Sol.
How could Earth, without an atmosphere, possibly be cooler?
Regarding the meanings of “knowledge” and “information,” Claude Shannon left us with a widely accepted mathematical definition of “information.” It is a concept in the probabilistic logic. This is the logic that is formed by that generalization from the classical logic in which the rule that every proposition is true or false is replaced by the rule that every proposition has a probability of being true. In this logic, an inference has the unique measure that is called its “entropy.” The entropy is the missing information in this inference for a deductive conclusion per event.
“Knowledge” lacks a widely accepted mathematical description. However, it matches the description of the mathematical function that is called the “mutual information.” The mutual information is the information that is not missing for a deductive conclusion per event. The mutual information varies inversely with the entropy. At the peak, the entropy is nil and the mutual information is called “perfect information.”
The vitriolic hatred that some evolutionists have for anyone who challenges their world view is matched only by the hatred that the warmists have for the skeptics.
To compared a self-assembled bubble of lipids to a cell membrane is like comparing a collections of wires and semi-conducters to a computer. (http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK9898/).
The nucleotides of RNA do not self-assemble in water, not to any useful degree. Experimenters talk of RNA-like molecules, proto-RNA,nucleotides which have been modified or activated but, no, RNA nucleotides do not self-assemble. And try synthesizing the nucleotides themselves. Lots of conjecture.
Are the amino acids found in meteorites a racemic mix or are they all left-handed, the only kind used by life? Anyone ever succeeded in producing only the left-handed kind or separating them out by any natural mechanism?
Regardless of the dogmatic proclamations of some, scientists have no idea how life arose. It’s really simple, go make like in the laboratory, if you know how. Synthesize the left handed amino acids and nucleotides. Throw them into a beaker with phospholipids and water and see if something comes walking out. Take all of the conjecture and proposed mechanisms and try them. Produce life. Make the DNA, RNA and proteins. Watch the DNA naturally encode itself with the instructions to create proteins and turn them on and off, to replicate itself, create the cellular membrane and all of the structures of the cell. Use all of the meteorites, crystals, clays and ice that you want.
I know, I know. It’s all just lies that I’m spewing. Scientists create life in the laboratory everyday. We read about the new life forms in the daily paper. And computers also self-assemble and create their own programming.
Richard Wright says:
August 17, 2014 at 5:24 pm
You are incapable of challenging the “world view” of biologists because you are totally ignorant of the science. It’s not hatred. It’s contempt for the presumption of a total ignoramus presuming to repeat ID lies without having done even a tiny smidgen of the work needed to understand what in the hell you’re talking about.
If only you had studied biology, you’d see why your lunatic ravings are held in such utter contempt.
I didn’t mean to imply that DNA or cells were self-aware when talking of “knowledge”. I was trying to make the correlation between knowledge and information, that information does not just create itself. DNA is a code that contains the instructions to build the cell, govern it’s operation and replication. Codes are created by intelligent beings and represent their knowledge.
Absolutely copying errors alter the behavior of the program and you are right to say they are destroyed or the original programming is restored if discovered. The reason is because the random alteration is detrimental. Anyone who deals with codes goes to great length to preserve their accuracy and prevent alteration. Send a coded nuclear launch message to a nuclear submarine and you ahd better hope the message comes through unaltered.
Richard Wright says:
August 17, 2014 at 6:32 pm
Your capacity to ignore reality is unplumbed, even when it’s set before you.
RNA self-assembles far better in water ice than in liquid water. How did you miss that one, posted here by at least one other commenter.
Why would the original lipid membrane have to have all the functionality of its modern descendants in the eubacteria, archeabacteria and eurkaryotes? Your antiscientific lies and drivel have been blasted out of the water, but still you continue embarrassing yourself. Your false religious faith must be very important to you.
The objective fact is that a simple Ur-cell containing RNA surrounded by a minimal lipid membrane would be capable of both replication and metabolism, especially in the rich biochemical environment of early earth. Science doesn’t need to create such an organism from scratch to show how it might have developed under the conditions prevailing on earth c. 3.8 billion years ago.
You are blinded by false belief.
Richard Wright says:
August 17, 2014 at 6:50 pm
Random alterations are not always detrimental. Why can’t you get this?
Take the human population for an example. Every human is born with a few mutations, and acquires more during his or her life, some of which occur in sperm and egg cells. Those in sperm are especially effective in providing genetic variation to the human population, which is why old fathers are an important source of new material upon which human evolution can work.
Not all seven billion humans will reproduce, of course, so let’s just look at the, say, five billion who might do so or have already done so. On average, each of them (us) might have about five (probably more) mutations. Those which were lethal to start meant their bearers weren’t born. So we’re talking maybe 25 billion mutations. Deleterious ones are masked by the matching genes on the other chromosome from the other parent, which is another advantage of sexual reproduction (one reasons why males are less “fit” than females, when the risks of child-bearing are detrended).
So, if just one mutation in a million is favorable (it’s actually more), then people walking around today are going to pass on 25 million beneficial mutations.
Maybe if you had ever taken a course in genetics or any other biological subject you wouldn’t humiliate yourself so hilariously. But I doubt it, so benighted is your brain by its false belief system.
Spoken like a true scientist! Experimental proof is unnecessary!
You know nothing about me yet proclaim with dogmatic certainty that I have never studied biology or been gainfully employed as a scientist. But you are completely wrong about this. I hope you are more objective in your own scientific pursuits. There is really no point in carrying this on because your are seemingly unable to respond without resorting to insults. Best of luck.
Richard Wright says:
August 17, 2014 at 7:27 pm
There is no such thing as “proof” in science, ignoramus, as you’ve been corrected before. I see you’re just as ignorant of science in general as biology in particular.
This from the ID liar who asserted without any evidence whatsoever that origin of life research had nothing, that it was all mysterious. What a buffoon!
You have been shown the evidence, fool, but you’re too scared of reality even to have clicked on the links provided. It has been shown experimentally that RNA self-assembles in ice and when assisted by PAHs. It has been shown that lipids form bubbles. What force do you imagine could keep bubbles from forming around self-replicating, protein-synthesizing RNA strands in the environment of earth 3.8 billion years ago, when the chemical signature of metabolic processes has been found in rocks of that age?
All the totally baseless, evidence free, religiously driven lies and cant are in your court.
Richard Wright says:
August 17, 2014 at 7:31 pm
Your clueless comments show that you obviously have never studied biology, or if you have, that it didn’t sink in.
Moderators:
It’s your blog, but do you really think it’s wise to let scientifically illiterate religious fanatics to stink up your site, contributing to the Team’s meme that climate skeptics also deny the reality of evolution?
Curious George says:
August 15, 2014 at 7:51 pm
milodon: I agree with your position – with some variations. I can’t see how an “intelligent design” can be shown false; it is flexible enough to survive any attack by mere facts. So are climate models.
——————-
Au contraire. It’s easy to show ID ludicrously false. This Wiki summary of the Dover trial leaves out certain trenchant points, such as the demonstration that “ID” literature had crudely reworked earlier creationist tracts and that Behe, originator of the ID scam to try to sneak creationism into the public schools by the back door, was forced to admit that natural selection and other evolutionary processes most certainly do produce new species, genera, families, orders, etc.
“In Kitzmiller v. Dover Area School District, the first direct challenge brought in United States federal courts to an attempt to mandate the teaching of intelligent design on First Amendment grounds, Behe was called as a primary witness for the defense and asked to support the idea that intelligent design was legitimate science. Some of the most crucial exchanges in the trial occurred during Behe’s cross-examination, where his testimony would prove devastating to the defense. Behe was forced to concede that “there are no peer reviewed articles by anyone advocating for intelligent design supported by pertinent experiments or calculations which provide detailed rigorous accounts of how intelligent design of any biological system occurred”[43] and that his definition of ‘theory’ as applied to intelligent design was so loose that astrology would also qualify.[44] Earlier during his direct testimony, Behe had argued that a computer simulation of evolution he performed with Snoke shows that evolution is not likely to produce certain complex biochemical systems. Under cross examination however, Behe was forced to agree that “the number of prokaryotes in 1 ton of soil are 7 orders of magnitude higher than the population [it would take] to produce the disulfide bond” and that “it’s entirely possible that something that couldn’t be produced in the lab in two years… could be produced over three and half billion years.”[43][45][46]
“Many of Behe’s critics have pointed to these exchanges as examples they believe further undermine Behe’s statements about irreducible complexity and intelligent design. John E. Jones III, the judge in the case, would ultimately rule that intelligent design is not scientific in his 139-page decision, citing Behe’s testimony extensively as the basis for his findings:
“Consider, to illustrate, that Professor Behe remarkably and unmistakably claims that the plausibility of the argument for ID depends upon the extent to which one believes in the existence of God.”[47]
“As no evidence in the record indicates that any other scientific proposition’s validity rests on belief in God, nor is the Court aware of any such scientific propositions, Professor Behe’s assertion constitutes substantial evidence that in his view, as is commensurate with other prominent ID leaders, ID is a religious and not a scientific proposition.”[47]
“First, defense expert Professor Fuller agreed that ID aspires to ‘change the ground rules’ of science and lead defense expert Professor Behe admitted that his broadened definition of science, which encompasses ID, would also embrace astrology. Moreover, defense expert Professor Minnich acknowledged that for ID to be considered science, the ground rules of science have to be broadened to allow consideration of supernatural forces.”[48]
“What is more, defense experts concede that ID is not a theory as that term is defined by the NAS and admit that ID is at best ‘fringe science’ which has achieved no acceptance in the scientific community.”[49]
“We therefore find that Professor Behe’s claim for irreducible complexity has been refuted in peer-reviewed research papers and has been rejected by the scientific community at large.”[50]
“ID proponents primarily argue for design through negative arguments against evolution, as illustrated by Professor Behe’s argument that ‘irreducibly complex’ systems cannot be produced through Darwinian, or any natural, mechanisms. However, … arguments against evolution are not arguments for design. Expert testimony revealed that just because scientists cannot explain today how biological systems evolved does not mean that they cannot, and will not, be able to explain them tomorrow. As Dr. Padian aptly noted, ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.’… Irreducible complexity is a negative argument against evolution, not proof of design, a point conceded by defense expert Professor Minnich.”[51]
“Professor Behe’s concept of irreducible complexity depends on ignoring ways in which evolution is known to occur. Although Professor Behe is adamant in his definition of irreducible complexity when he says a precursor ‘missing a part is by definition nonfunctional,’ what he obviously means is that it will not function in the same way the system functions when all the parts are present. For example in the case of the bacterial flagellum, removal of a part may prevent it from acting as a rotary motor. However, Professor Behe excludes, by definition, the possibility that a precursor to the bacterial flagellum functioned not as a rotary motor, but in some other way, for example as a secretory system.”[52]
“Professor Behe has applied the concept of irreducible complexity to only a few select systems: (1) the bacterial flagellum; (2) the blood-clotting cascade; and (3) the immune system. Contrary to Professor Behe’s assertions with respect to these few biochemical systems among the myriad existing in nature, however, Dr. Miller presented evidence, based upon peer-reviewed studies, that they are not in fact irreducibly complex.”[53]
“In fact, on cross-examination, Professor Behe was questioned concerning his 1996 claim that science would never find an evolutionary explanation for the immune system. He was presented with fifty-eight peer-reviewed publications, nine books, and several immunology textbook chapters about the evolution of the immune system; however, he simply insisted that this was still not sufficient evidence of evolution, and that it was not “good enough.”[54]
“With ID, proponents assert that they refuse to propose hypotheses on the designer’s identity, do not propose a mechanism, and the designer, he/she/it/they, has never been seen. … In addition, Professor Behe agreed that for the design of human artifacts, we know the designer and its attributes and we have a baseline for human design that does not exist for design of biological systems. Professor Behe’s only response to these seemingly insurmountable points of disanalogy was that the inference still works in science fiction movies.”[55]
“Jones would later say that Eric Rothschild’s cross examination of Behe was “as good a cross-examination of an expert witness as I have ever seen. It was textbook.”[56][57]”
“No matter what the observation, no matter how the world changes, we can never falsify alarmist climate theories.”
No, but because these “theories” cannot be falsified any more than other equally superstitious ideas, we do have the choice to simply ignore them.
@ur momisugly sturgishooper says: August 17, 2014 at 7:35 pm
Trolls need to be fed. If they get no food, they go somewhere else to get it. The only reason the blog is ‘stunk up’ is because you keep feeding them. The stink comes from both sides. Drop it and move on.
philjourdan says:
August 19, 2014 at 6:28 am
Let me get this straight. You think that a creationist troll who tries to promote his false religion on a science blog stinks it up as much as a scientist who tries to correct the troll’s errors, in order to maintain the blog’s credibility on scientific reality.
Interesting.
@sturgishooper – No. I said the debate stinks it up. And if you did not succumb to his trap, then he would go away. Or at least not keep bringing up the subject. The debate is mindless. One is faith, and the other science. So why are you debating faith? You cannot win to them. So just ignore them!
I would prefer to read your more insightful posts. As it is, I am skipping your posts now because I do not care to see religion and science debated anywhere.
That is, and always has been, my problem with the theory of anthropogenic global warming. A true theory is falsifiable. A true scientist will define some set of experimental outcomes that will prove his theory false. And if one or more of those outcomes is realized, the theory will be rejected. No falsification criteria has ever been established for anthropogenic global warming. Instead, anything that occurs, they come up with some new twist on the theory that makes this outcome “fit right in” with the theory. And it doesn’t seem to bother them at all that this new twist on the theory contradicts the last twist they put on the theory to explain what happened last week.
Now, I understand that weather is not climate, and a freak snowstorm here or a low temperature now doesn’t prove anything about climate. But seriously, we need to hold these guys’ feet to the fire and FORCE them to tell us exactly what they would accept as proof that all their theories, all their models, are dead wrong. And since I understand that “climate” is based on long-term trends, it doesn’t have to be some one-time event, or some short-term average. I’ll accept any realistic criteria based on events that occur over some FINITE time period, provided no action is taken, based on the notion that the theory is correct, until that time period has expired and unless the falsifying data has failed to materialize.
But the way it stands, now, it’s like medieval science (i.e., religion). They put out a theory because it jives with their own dogmatic beliefs, and every fact that comes up to contradict the theory is explained away by spontaneous, ad-hoc additions to the theory (often contradictory to each other), or just plain-old denial of the facts.
Actually, now that I think about it, it’s a lot like a kid trying to get away with a lie. I remember an event from my childhood, in which my brother “pretended” to be dead. He was lying, unmoving on the trampoline after I accidentally bumped into him and knocked him down. It didn’t take me long to realize the game he was playing, and I said, “get up, you’re not dead”, to which he replied “I am too”. I said, “but your eyes are closed; dead peoples’ eyes are open”, and he said “no, if you die with your eyes closed, then they stay closed”. I said, “why would your eyes have been closed when I knocked you down?”, and he said, “because I just happened to be blinking at that precise moment”. “Okay, but you’re breathing”; “No, I’m not” (at which point began a short-lived attempt for him to hold his breath until, I can only surmise, I gave up and pronounced him dead, which did not happen in the 20 seconds the atttempt lasted). Then he said “that’s gas building up inside my body”. “Okay, but you’re exhaling too”; “That’s gas escaping through the pores”. “But you’re TALKING. Dead people don’t talk”; “That’s my ghost talking to you”. “But your lips are moving”; “that’s from the gas escaping my body”. “I thought you said the gas was escaping through your pores”; “Well, not all of it, some is coming out of my mouth”. “But I didn’t bump into you hard enough to kill you”; “But you hit my nose, and everyone knows that it doesn’t take a lot of force to drive that bone up into your brain causing instant death”. At that point, tiring of the game, I just punched him in the shoulder, whereupon he screamed “ow”, and grabbed his shoulder with his other hand. I said “Gotcha”; he said, “That was just reflexes”. Reflexes always seemed to be the go-to argument in cases of pretend death, and I knew when I was beat. So finally, I said, “well, if you’re really dead, I guess I better go pack some clothes and leave before the cops come and arrest me for murder”, then I walked in the house and played Asteroids for the rest of the afternoon. To his credit, he held onto the pretense for another hour, lying on the trampoline, no doubt bored as hell. I wish I had known at the time that the human body, upon death, immediately evacuates its bowels and bladder. Sure would have been fun to watch him wet and soil himself just to prove he really was dead. And that is pretty much the equivalent of what the global warming alarmists are doing right now holding on to their pretense.