While we have one of the lowest US fire seasons to date on record so far…
![screenhunter_1655-aug-04-06-59[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/screenhunter_1655-aug-04-06-591.gif)
(Data at right from National Interagency Fire Center plotted by Tony Heller)
…we have this special report based on “…numerous predictions that wildfires—especially in the West—will get larger, more intense, and increasingly hard to contain with climate change,”.
The Interaction of Climate Change, Fire, and Forests in the U.S.
Special Journal Section Provides Regional Assessments
Asheville, NC — A special section of the September issue of Forest Ecology and Management, available online now, assesses the interactions among fire, climate change, and forests for five major regions of the United States.
The editors of the section—Drs. Chelcy Miniat from the U.S. Forest Service, Monique Rocca from Colorado State University, and Robert Mitchell (now deceased) from the Joseph W. Jones Ecological Research Center—started the project by organizing teams of scientists from the Forest Service and universities to provide scientific input into the third National Climate Assessment (NCA), which is prepared at least every four years to assess the effects of climate change on sectors, resources, and regions of the United States.
“The idea for the section came from conversations I had with Bob Mitchell when I was working with the U.S. Global Change Research Program a few years ago,” said Miniat, project leader with the Forest Service Southern Research Station. “We quickly realized that the ability to manage wildfires and to use fire as a tool would be affected by climate change and that this interaction needed more attention in the next round of assessments. We wanted to tailor this information for forest managers.”
Articles in the special section review the interactions between climate and fire in five different regions of the U.S—the Pacific Northwest, Southwest, Rocky Mountains, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Each article follows the same general structure, providing a description of the region and its forest types; discussion of projected changes in climate and how they will likely impact fire and forests; and a synthesis of what is known about the effects of fire on forest ecosystem services such as water quantity and quality, air quality, and biodiversity.
“The growing interest in fire and climate has been fueled by numerous predictions that wildfires—especially in the West—will get larger, more intense, and increasingly hard to contain with climate change,” said Rocca. “Understanding the complex relationships among climate, fire, and vegetation is critical to the ability of policymakers and resource managers to respond to climate change. Our goal in these articles is not only to provide the best available science, but also to inform the conversation on how forest management choices can impact the valuable services we derive from our forests.”
Access the articles included in the special issue.
– See more at: http://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/news/572#sthash.pJRuAkna.dpuf
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I work in the forest in northern Alberta and the biggest factor in creating dangerous fire conditions is wind. Nothing dries out a forest faster than wind and nothing turns small fires into large ones like wind. Temperature and precipitation take a back seat.
The latest issue of Men’s Journal also has an article about CAGW & fires. Perhaps based on same USFS paper ; I don’t know for sure because I couldn’t stomach to read it.
And just what is CAGW & fires doing in Men’s Journal anyway ? I would be interested in the back story of how that got published.
http://www.mensjournal.com/
I noticed that nearly all these big fires occurred at sometime after Aug 1. Why do they choose this ending date when most fires, at least in my area of Cal. happen later in the fire season. We have had a number of moderate fires this year, but without the hoped for El Niño, I suspect our biggest fire this year is yet to come.
I see retired engineer beat me to it. How many of those fires are man made? The Black Forrest area here in Colorado did not become a royal crown fire. It was the drift on the forest floor. It was a somewhat wet spring. The official line is somewhat murky on how the Waldo canyon, Black Forest, and Royal Gorge fires started, but most everyone believes that they were started by arson.
“Historically, fire has been a frequent and major ecological factor in North America. In the conterminous United States during the preindustrial period (1500-1800), an average of 145 million acres burned annually. Today only 14 million acres(federal and non-federal) are burned annually by wildland fire from all ignitionsources. Land use changes such as agriculture and urbanization are responsible for50 percent of this 10-fold decrease. Land management actions including land
fragmentation and fire suppression are responsible for the remaining 50 percent.”
http://www.nifc.gov/PIO_bb/Policy/FederalWildlandFireManagementPolicy_2001.pdf
OK…. but the number of large fires (over 1,000 acres) has risen since 1984, and the fire season has lengthened from 5 to 7 months. I’m glad fires are down, but it looks like you’re cherry-picking data here, Anthony. Not to mention the misleading headline… climate models do not predict forest fires.
So, wild in the years 1500-1800 consumed 145 million acres annually; arond 1990’s – 14 million acres; from 2004-2013 – 4 million acres.
R. Shearer says:
August 5, 2014 at 2:45 pm
http://publishing.cdlib.org/ucpressebooks/view?docId=ft5z09p09z&chunk.id=d0e101&toc.id=d0e101&brand=ucpress
David Douglas, an English (actually Scottish) botanist who arrived in the Willamette Valley (western Oregon) in the autumn of 1826, noted of the aftermath of burning, “Most parts of the country burned; only in little patches and on the flats near the low hills that verdure is to be seen.” A few days later he commented, “As I walked nearly the whole of the last three days, my feet are very sore from the burned stumps of low brush-wood and strong grasses.” Not only did the earliest European and Euro-American visitors and settlers in the Willamette Valley remark on the immediate effects of the Kalapuya’s use of fire, but they also left records of the actual process and scene of burning. On 15 September 1841, W.D. Brackenridge noted as he traveled out of the southern Willamette Valley, “day very fine but dense with smoke from prairies in vicinity.” Jesse Applegate, nephew of the more famous settler by the same name, left the following description of his family’s encounter with one of the last of the Kalapuya burnings, which occurred in the early 1840s:
This season the fire was started somewhere on the South Yamhill, and came sweeping up through the Salt Creek gap. The sea breeze being quite strong that evening, the flames leaped over the creek and came down upon us like an army with banners. All our skill and perseverance were required to save our camp. The flames swept by on both sides of the grove; then quickly closing ranks, made a clean sweep of all the country south and east of us. As the shades of night deepened, long lines of flame and smoke could be seen. . . . On dark nights the sheets of flame and tongues of fire and lurid clouds of smoke made a picture both awful and sublime.[19]
” Winterrulz says:
August 5, 2014 at 1:35 pm
MJC, I’m not sure where you got your info about the lawns versus farrmland in Northwest Ohio, but it is simply not true.”
I’m much more familiar with the Cleveland area…I haven’t been in Toledo in quite a while. Cuyahoga county is definitely NOT agricultural any longer.
And in a way you make my point. Ag run off is strictly controlled, and has been for many years…urban/suburan run off from lawns is not. And in many areas, storm run off goes directly to the lakes/rivers.
If you really want to get into the nuts and bolts of what causes forest fires and what makes them big, I have a challenge for you. Answer this question: Why is it that fires in the western states often burn out of control and defeat fire management but fires east of the Mississippi never burn out of control and never defeat fire management?
I asked this question some two years ago and a resident of the Southwest gave a dynamite answer. He said that the factors that explain the differences are (1) population density (2) quality and number of access roads (3) quality and location of fire fighting resources and (4) relative difficulty of terrain.
To make a long story short, in the western states fires can burn for some time before they are spotted because of low population density, once they are spotted access to them is difficult because the roads are relatively few, fire fighting equipment can travel some distance to reach a fire and, finally, the terrain is much more “up and down” than in the east.
The great bonus question: How is some adaptation to climate change going to affect the critical challenges facing fire fighters in the West?
Theo Goodwin says:
August 5, 2014 at 3:26 pm
There are practically no areas east of the Mississippi comparable to the national forests or BLM ranges of the West.
I have been told that the Little Ice Age was a largely norther hemisphere affair. I have been told that the northern hemisphere has warmed in an unprecedented manner since around 1850. So here are the results from observations.
Abstract – 2008
Climate and wildfires in the North American boreal forest
…Climate controls the area burned through changing the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño Southern Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation, PDO/ENSO and AO) that control the frequency of blocking highs over the continent at different time scales…
……Since the end of the Little Ice Age, the climate has been unusually moist and variable: large fire years have occurred in unusual years, fire frequency has decreased and fire–climate relationships have occurred at interannual to decadal time scales……
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2315.short
———————————
Paper – 2008
K.E Ruckstuhl et al
Introduction. The boreal forest and global change
……In this issue, Macias & Johnson (2008) show that the frequency of these blocking highs in the North American boreal forest is controlled by the dynamics of large-scale teleconnection patterns (the Pacific Decadal Oscillation/El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation). They also note that warming itself is not a predictor of increased fires since, as shown in previous studies, fire frequency across the North American boreal forest decreased as the Little Ice Age came to an end in the late nineteenth century (Johnson 1992; Bergeron & Archambault 1993). The study by Macias & Johnson (2008) provides not only evidence for the link between decadal-scale changes in the teleconnection patterns (e.g. the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index) and the increased fire frequency in the late twentieth century but also an explanation of why the pattern of fire variability and fire-climate relationships changes at different time scales from centennial/decadal to interannual…..
http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/363/1501/2243.short
———————————
Abstract – 1998
M.D. Flannigan et. al.
Future wildfire in circumboreal forests in relation to global warming
Despite increasing temperatures since the end of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1850), wildfire frequency has decreased as shown in many field studies from North America and Europe. We believe that global warming since 1850 may have triggered decreases in fire frequency in some regions and future warming may even lead to further decreases in fire frequency….
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2307/3237261/abstract
doi:10.2307/3237261
———————————
Abstract– September 1993
Yves Bergeron et. al. – The Holocene
Decreasing frequency of forest fires in the southern boreal zone of Québec and its relation to global warming since the end of the ‘Little Ice Age‘
We present here evidence from fire and tree-ring chronologies that the post-‘Little Ice Age’ climate change has profoundly decreased the frequency of fires in the northwestern Québec boreal forest.
doi: 10.1177/095968369300300307
———————————
Abstract – February 2000
Henri D. Grissino Mayer et. al. – The Holocene –
….Century scale climate forcing of fire regimes in the American Southwest
Following a centuries-long dry period with high fire frequency (c. AD 1400-1790), annual precipitation increased, fire frequency decreased, and the season of fire shifted from predominantly midsummer to late spring….
http://hol.sagepub.com/content/10/2/213.short
It’s always those darn observation
Well, they predict warming and, in some locations, lower rainfall, which implies more fires there. The recent National Climate Assessment drew that obvious conclusion, I believe.
milodonharlani says:
August 5, 2014 at 3:44 pm
I am not sure what you are talking about. The second largest national forest system is in northwest Alabama. The Deep South is covered in forests.
In any case, my point was not about the extent of forests but about the relative difficulties of fighting fires in them.
You missed a big one.
Haymen Fire, Colorado, June 8, 2002. 138,000 acres, several deaths, millions in lost property and suppression costs, started intentionally by a forest service employee, and since I was within 5 miles of ground zero when it started, quite spectacular to watch develop. The woman who started it plead guilty and was ultimately sentenced 15 years probation (wrist slap – bad killer, no cookie) and 1,000 hours community service.
Theo Goodwin says:
August 5, 2014 at 4:43 pm
I’m talking about absolute number of acres & share of total by state.
I don’t know what you mean by system. Number or area of national forests? Alabama’s national forest land isn’t a pimple on the ass of Western national forests, either in absolute terms or even by percentage of total.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._National_Forests#mediaviewer/File:USA_National_Forests_Map.jpg
You’re right that there is a lot of private softwood land in the SE, & that it is flat & easily controlled & managed compared to the West, but even factoring in that acreage, there is no comparison to the public & private forest land in the West.
Nearly half of Oregon’s 63 million acres, some 30 million, are forested. Of this total, 18 million acres, ie 60%, are federally owned. This is nearly the area of South Carolina. In contrast, the Southeast is mostly privately owned, with less than 10% of its land under public ownership. Alabama might well exceed this average.
dp says:
August 5, 2014 at 6:53 pm
You’re right I should have included it, as CO’s largest fire. I’ve discussed it on this blog before, to support my point about intentional arson. The West Fork Complex last year was pretty close.
I also didn’t mention the four worst known fires in Oregon history, which occurred between 1846 & 1868, burning 300K to a million acres each.
I neglected the Great Michigan Fire of 1871, which happened about the same time as the Peshtigo Fire, both of which didn’t get the ink they deserved because of the contemporaneous Great Chicago Fire, all fanned by the same strong winds.
milodonharlani says:
August 5, 2014 at 7:16 pm
Why are you talking about the total acreage of forests in the West? What does that have to do with anything? Are you thinking that each fire affects the entire forest acreage in the West? Take a pill, man.
milodonharlani says:
August 5, 2014 at 7:16 pm
Check your statistics. Oregon is number 2 in total forest area but Georgia is number 3 and Alabama is number 6.
http://www.statemaster.com/graph/geo_lan_acr_tot_for_lan-geography-land-acreage-total-forest
Theo Goodwin says:
August 5, 2014 at 7:55 pm
I’m trying to understand your point.
Single fires in the West have burnt more acreage than in all the national forests of Alabama, ie ~667,000 acres. One in Oregon burnt about a million acres.
Your claim about National Forest System land in Alabama is not just wrong, but hilariously so. That’s my point.
Theo Goodwin says:
August 5, 2014 at 8:03 pm
What did I say that was wrong? I never said Oregon was number one. Besides which, we’re talking wildfires. Add in public grasslands that burn & Oregon alone has more land susceptible to wildfires than GA & AL together, let alone the larger Western states.
Found one example… Here is a deadly algae superbloom where it is undetermined what the cause is. Harsh winters is prominently mentioned. Recent forest fires are considered a strong possibility. Even smoke from west coast forest fires occasionally get mentioned as a possibility in the great lakes super blooms because the smoke travels that far away and drops (in rain). Like the ash fall from volcano eruption can cause plankton superbloom.
http://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/local/environment/lagoon/2014/05/03/indian-river-lagoon-went-wrong/8672245/
These algae blooms are often toxic to people and critters. A lot of Florida wildlife are getting killed by superbloom of algae. A lot of critters died from cold in the last five years or so too, where far fewer were before.
Record 829 Manatee Deaths in 2013 Puzzle Scientists
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140122-manatee-deaths-florida-red-tide-threats-endangered-species/
Frosty Winter of 2010 Still Haunts Florida
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/the-frosty-winter-of-2010-stil/14597892
Oh wait, that wasn’t the one that blamed forest fires. Thought I had it.
So why has the Forest Service decided to stop maintaining logging roads in its forests, letting them fall into disuse when a tree (for example) falls across them?
(Presumably this is the result of greenie indoctrination and pressure.)
PS: I wonder if a decline in the number of usable logging roads has hurt some recent fire-fighting episodes.