New Climate Model Introduced, now with knobs!

Due to the cutbacks in funding for climate science, a new climate model has been introduced to help politicians justify unnecessary laws that regulate carbon dioxide emissions…


Etch-A-Climate ModelPrice: $10 Million U.S. – (I only need to sell one to a gullible politician somewhere around the globe.)

[Satire Off]

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UPDATE: This post was prompted by a number of comments around the blogosphere in response to my post Lewandowsky and Oreskes Are Co-Authors of a Paper about ENSO, Climate Models and Sea Surface Temperature Trends (Go Figure!).

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July 23, 2014 9:53 am

I almost choked on my soda!

July 23, 2014 10:01 am

They have two color Etch-a-Sketches? Cool, I gotta get one of them. 🙂

July 23, 2014 10:01 am

The knobs in climate science are not on the devices…

July 23, 2014 10:03 am

The skittery black line is obviously due to the beginner’s difficulty to make the sketch. Soon, though, with practice, the operator will follow one or other of the smooth paths shown.
Climate change is a function of the skill-level of the model operator!

July 23, 2014 10:03 am

Above Bob Tisdale’s ebook Who turned on the Heat? is mentioned. May I propose a title for a book in accordance with empiri: Who or What turned Bob Tisdale away from Theories of Science?

David Schofield
July 23, 2014 10:04 am

I actually compared parametrisation to etch a sketch in my lectures years ago!

July 23, 2014 10:05 am

Bob, I’m sending you the bill for a new keyboard…gov’t rates that should be an extra $2k to tack on to that price tag. (I should know better than to drink coffee around my computer…probably should have called in a haz-mat to clean off the monitor, oh well.)

July 23, 2014 10:06 am

Are the redline labels not reversed…from the financial benefits recoverable point of view I mean?

July 23, 2014 10:07 am

It’d be funnier if it wasn’t true – they genuinely – and openly – want to ignore empirical measurements to suit the models:
This week they’re claiming that the record Antarctic sea ice must be wrong.

July 23, 2014 10:07 am

You probably should do a Fahrenheit version for the U.S. !!
Phil Jones could probably work this one though.
(PS Shouldn’t it be “pesky” not “pesty”?)

Curious George
July 23, 2014 10:10 am

Does it predicts the end of a “pause” as successfully as four best official models?

Mike McMillan
July 23, 2014 10:12 am

Reaching for my checkbook even as we speak.

July 23, 2014 10:14 am

Sorry, I need a manual for this model. How does the CO2 knob control both worst and best case? Why do climate scientists always have to make everything so complicated?

July 23, 2014 10:19 am

Price: $10 Million U.S. – (I only need to sell one to a gullible politician somewhere around the globe.)

$10 million? The real ones have cost more like $10 Billion.

July 23, 2014 10:19 am

The knobs in climate science are not on the devices…
PiperPaul wins the internet today

M Courtney
July 23, 2014 10:28 am

Using the word “poiricaians” in the first sentence of an article that’s titled “… with knobs” is unfortunate.

July 23, 2014 10:32 am

Price: $10 Million U.S. – (I only need to sell one to a gullible politician somewhere around the globe.)
If memory serves, the last politician who pursued the “etch a sketch” strategy lost a major election in the United States. So the well is poisoned. All is not lost though, just shelve it until it has faded from the collective memory retention of the American electorate and then trot it out again…..oh wait….
OK, you’re good to go already. Never mind.

July 23, 2014 10:37 am

Darn,Bob. You’re only asking 10 million? Have check book in hand,will travel. And as an aside M Courtney…I think you meant (pschyopath)…errrr…politician

Mickey Reno
July 23, 2014 10:41 am

When I saw the title of your post, I was thinking of wholly different kinds of knobs.

Bruce Cobb
July 23, 2014 10:44 am

Great. How about an E-Z Bake Climate Oven version? Instead of a light bulb for the “heat” source there would be CO2. Such fun!

July 23, 2014 10:45 am

John: The 2016 prototype comes with a cup holder.

Anything is possible
July 23, 2014 10:45 am

Sorry Bob, this is not going to work.
Not without the secret pairwise algorithm which enables you to match the data with your model output.

July 23, 2014 10:48 am

I don’t get this post. I was pretty sure that toy was what they were using since the late 80s. Are you saying this is an improved version? (like Windows 8.1 I guess)

July 23, 2014 10:48 am

What a great idea! This will save lots of time and money and give us the same results.

July 23, 2014 10:54 am

an early 20th century graphing computer! Loved them as a kid.

July 23, 2014 11:02 am

Hm, on second thoughts, I think I like this one better. It has “sliders” instead of “knobs”!
Problem is: they really mean it !

July 23, 2014 11:03 am

Has GM recalled it yet?

Lance Wallace
July 23, 2014 11:40 am

Johan says:
July 23, 2014 at 11:02 am
Try setting the slider at 0% cuts of emissions. Depending on when you apply the 0% cuts, you can can almost singlehandedly reduce temperature increase below 2 C. But time is short–we must make the 0% cut NOW!

The Definition Guy
July 23, 2014 11:47 am

I lucked out last night. When the Gong Show rerun ended at 3:30am the infomercial for this product came on. The part where they demonstrated what to do when the observed temperature is way below the predicted value was great. Michael Mann shows Phil Jones a peer reviewed paper on the MWP and Jones starts shaking uncontrollably and drops the unit, completely erasing the original data! Genius! Time consuming shredding of documents and those pesky accidental lab fires in response to FOI subpoenas will be a thing of the past. You can’t find a less secure way to store your data! The best news is that if you order in the next 10 minutes you get a second unit absolutely FREE! Just pay additional shipping and handling. Ask the operator how to get a set of Ginsu steak knives Free with your order. Even if you try to return the unit, the knives are yours to keep!
Order 10 units and you get the Speaking Michael Mann bobble head. Programmed to say, “I won a Nobel Prize, kinda”, “12 is enough” “hide the decline.” And. “Because I said so.”
A 12 cent value it’s free with your extended order.
/ end of satire
[But, isn’t a backslash before the “end of satire” a whole new satire because the “end of satire” was ended before the “end of satire” even began? 8<) .mod]

July 23, 2014 12:06 pm

The science is settled, so we can divert funding to finding a complete solution to “Chinese Checkers”
July 23, 2014 12:09 pm

Love that sly reference, knobs indeed!

John West
July 23, 2014 12:16 pm

norah4you says:
“ Who or What turned Bob Tisdale away from Theories of Science?”
Science turns scientists away from theories of science. Here’s a no where near complete list of theories of science that science tells me (& Bob Tisdale) should be turned away from:
Spontaneous generation
Transmutation of species
Maternal impression
Miasma theory of disease
Recapitulation theory
Out of Asia theory
Caloric theory
Classical elements
Phlogiston theory
Emission theory of vision
Ptolemy’s law of refraction
Luminiferous aether
John Dalton’s model of the atom
Plum pudding model of the atom
Rutherford model of the atom
Ptolemaic system
Geocentric universe
Rain follows the plow
Expanding Earth theory
Geosyncline theory
Theory of the four bodily humours
Eclectic Medicine

Bill Parsons
July 23, 2014 12:21 pm

Small print: “Knobs only turn clockwise. Counterclockwise knobs not available in participating university systems.”

July 23, 2014 1:19 pm

Its only a matter of time till some comedian proposes the
‘ice-death-spiral spiro-graph’

July 23, 2014 1:24 pm

Is this the one that is FOIA-free? Just turn it over, give it a shake and – voila, all gone!!

July 23, 2014 1:26 pm

$10 Million dollars what a bargain 😉

Mike in Chile
July 23, 2014 1:35 pm

This looks like my company’s typical projections for projected revenue from a new product !(I admit I am guilty of it as well!). For you younger people in product development and government funded “climate science”: Always turn the left knob counterclockwise and the right knob clockwise to continue getting funding!

Mike in Chile
July 23, 2014 1:44 pm

My above instructions were wrong according to Google. Right is left knob clockwise and Up is right knob clockwise.
Remedial Instructions for Michael Mann:
1) Zoom in on Medieval warm period
2) Turn upside down and shake vigorously
3) Turn back over and continue turning both knobs clockwise with eyes closed

Follow the Money
July 23, 2014 1:51 pm

I would like to see someone qualified to plot all noted models (e.g., CMIP5’s) without accoriding any sensitivity variable as to CO2 at all. Do they all use the same input? Wouldn’t it be remarkable if the following plottings looked “like” the recent temps history? I would not be surprised really. Such could validate everything else about the models, which would be exciting! But scientifically pursuing the otherwise obvious-for-scrutiny issue of sensitivity predictions has the deleterious effect of damaging carbon pricing, so no “Climate Scientist” will do likely do it, unless it is a particularly crazed one who is not hip to the money games.

Gunga Din
July 23, 2014 2:04 pm

norah4you says:
July 23, 2014 at 10:03 am
Above Bob Tisdale’s ebook Who turned on the Heat? is mentioned. May I propose a title for a book in accordance with empiri: Who or What turned Bob Tisdale away from Theories of Science?

Perhaps Bob Tisdale has succumbed to “consensus science”? /SARC!

July 23, 2014 2:04 pm

Has “climate science” become that much of a joke? I remember a time when they at least seemed to make an effort. But with the pause, the failure of the carbon tax, the growing Antarctica ice, the missing hot spot, the lowering of the max climate sensitivity, the ship of fools to Antarctica, the bogus 97% claims (actually being 0.3% LOL), upside down proxies, climategate, hide the decline, etc… it’s just all too easy to mock. And rightly so. Etch-a-Sketch is indeed the perfect analogy.

July 23, 2014 2:09 pm

Nobs been twisted, just got off the tractor here in Delta County, Texas. Can see a big bunch of thunder heads just to the North and East, clear it is there will be wind and rain soon. Got to get every thing shut down and closed up before it gets here.
A cold front from the North East here this time of year is very, very not normal.
So who is at the nobs, can not be Mike Mann for sure.

July 23, 2014 2:09 pm
July 23, 2014 2:11 pm

“Has “climate science” become that much of a joke? I remember a time when they at least seemed to make an effort.”
I remember reading H.H. Lamb’s 1982 book and thinking that this young science was going to amount to something. But then something wicked became of the “science”. I predict it will be at least two generations before climate “science” even is a science again. (they stop thinking computer models trumps real world observations)

M Courtney
July 23, 2014 2:11 pm

Thanks, Justthinking.
My typing is terrible today.
Too focussed in work instead of play – I need to get my priorities righter..

July 23, 2014 2:17 pm

Does this imply that if all funding is cut from modeling we’ll be back to reality?
Oh, my!
(Don’t ya just love the theorem of limts?)

July 23, 2014 2:27 pm

Bob. Your IPCC ETCH A GLOBAL TEMPERATURE MODEL just won’t work. The best and worst case model projections are not identified, which means the can’t be replicated. That means it is not SCIENCE. Or was that the point?
On the other hand the knobs should have pictures on them. I suggest Lewandowsky and Oreskes. They are both knobs. (see urban dictionary… take your pick)
Maybe you should include a roll of Lewpaper to clean the screen.
Seriously Bob, thank you for all that you do,

July 23, 2014 2:36 pm

@Johan & Lance Wallace
What a hoot!
As near as I can figure, if poor and rich countries cut 0% of emissions and ramp down from 2005 to 2010, it’s the best case of all. Typical climate modeling, I guess.
@Bob Tisdale
You’re going to have to simplify your climate control machine for “real klimate skientists.” Maybe something with just an On/Off switch.

July 23, 2014 2:42 pm

just as funny.
EU agree 30%; CAGW activists wanted 40%. agreement is non-binding; activists wanted binding; can’t reduce energy use or it might mess with the ETS;
you can’t make this stuff up:
23 July: Reuters: Barbara Lewis: EU Commission agrees 30 percent energy savings goal for 2030: sources
The European Commission agreed on Wednesday to put forward a target to improve energy efficiency by 30 percent as part of a package of climate and energy policy for 2030, EU sources said.
Member states will decide whether the target should be binding on individual nations or at an EU-wide level, said two sources, requesting anonymity as they are not authorized to speak to the media…
Britain and many business interests have pushed hard for a single goal on cutting greenhouse gases, complemented by a strengthened EU Emissions Trading System (ETS).
The ETS is meant to be the European Union’s flagship policy for tackling climate change but prices of only around 6 euros ($8) per ton are too weak to drive investment in lower-carbon technology…
***Reducing energy use can have the effect of adding to the existing surplus of carbon allowances and lowering their price still further…

July 23, 2014 3:29 pm

I would bet Josh can improve on this idea.
First Panel: Room with a bunch of little MEMs scattered about with their Etch-A-Climate-Sketchs. Pikachu looks in from the side, “The IPCC’s new Super Cluster Computer is busy at work on a Optimum Consensus Solution.”
Second Panel: The little MEMs are now running about and slapping each other silly with their Etch-A-Climate-Sketchs and issuing threats of legal action to each other. Pikachu looks worried.
Third Panel: The little MEMs are now lying about the room quite bruised and exhausted as their furious computations came to a sudden halt. Pikachu explains, “Lades and Gentlemen, our new Super Cluster Computer has experienced a hardware failure. A Consensus is not possible.”
Ha ha ! 😀

July 23, 2014 3:34 pm

Can we please have Anthony or Bob etc create a “widget” button of this so we can post it every time we see one of those confounded “Hiroshima bomb” references? Or Dana’s escalator? Supposedly they constantly develop those shiny objects because they think they promote their point of view to idiots faster and easier. Let’s make some of our own. We owe it to the idiots who buy into shiny widgets to at least confuse them enough that they aren’t sure which shiny widget is true.

July 23, 2014 3:35 pm

Can I get that on a TSHIRT??? Seriously Bob!!

July 23, 2014 3:47 pm

Observation confirmation – norah4you has proved PiperPaul correct!

July 23, 2014 4:03 pm

If only their equipment was this sophistcated…

Gary Hladik
July 23, 2014 4:08 pm

Good one, Bob!
Reminds me of this one:

Neil Jordan
July 23, 2014 5:07 pm

Re John West says: July 23, 2014 at 12:16 pm
Two more for your list (in chronological order)
Bathybius haecklii

David Walton
July 23, 2014 6:28 pm

Etch A Hockey Stick.

July 23, 2014 6:59 pm

This would really sell, you know. I’d love one! We could pull them out of our pockets and show greenies just how their lords and masters have done it. It might even wake up a few. 😀

Gunga Din
July 23, 2014 7:32 pm

A small quibble.
If this is the new IPCC model maker then there is no need to have any data indicated.

Gunga Din
July 23, 2014 7:36 pm

Bob Tisdale says:
July 23, 2014 at 4:58 pm
Sorry about any wet keyboards.
I created the image with the intent of using it on the cover of my next ebook.

Then maybe the next page could have a graphic that is a takeoff of the “Best Case”, “Worst Case” meme called “The Real Case”. Just a thought.

July 23, 2014 7:38 pm

“Gunga Din says:
July 23, 2014 at 7:32 pm
A small quibble.
If this is the new IPCC model maker then there is no need to have any data indicated.”
You’ve got it wrong…there’s a basic set of synthetic data, included, for bedazzling the unwashed masses…and for your soul, you can get the corrected version.
And for a few million more, you can even get a super-deluxe proprietary code excuse generator, 16-bit Windows 95 version only.

James Bull
July 23, 2014 10:36 pm

Thank you Bob and the many comments that have cheered up my morning.
Gary Hladik says:
July 23, 2014 at 4:08 pm
I remember that cartoon being used by one of the tech support guys at work to show management computer skill level. They just need to be new and have lots of add on bits that don’t do anything to make them a “must have” item.
James Bull

July 23, 2014 11:40 pm

John West says:
July 23, 2014 at 12:16 pm
Thank you for that excellent response.
Mine would have been much less civil as well as less informational.

John Moore
July 24, 2014 1:40 am

This one came through at the same time — but trying to see it brought a message “unable to find”
“I wonder how this decicated weather observer feels about having his readings adjusted by NCDC?”

bit chilly
July 24, 2014 3:00 am

unfortunately there is a glaring error in the graphs presented . it would appear you failed to consider that the worst case scenario and the BEST case scenario are tracking the same line.

July 24, 2014 3:39 am

PiperPaul says:
July 23, 2014 at 10:01 am
The knobs in climate science are not on the devices…
todays winner:-)
so very true.
and Ta Bob it IS good for a book cover,
would really make a great Tshirt as well as suggested:-)

Steve from Rockwood
July 24, 2014 5:31 am

@Bob Tisdale. First, that was a great graphic. Second, you may want to read up on the “Bootstrap” algorithm that estimates sea ice extent. It is described as being based on sound scientific principles in theory but the implementation is “highly empirical”.

Russ R.
July 24, 2014 11:16 am

You need a third knob, that cools the past, to make the current temps more alarming!
Make it the “Hide the Decline” knob.

July 24, 2014 2:08 pm

Bruce Cobb says:
July 23, 2014 at 10:44 am
“Great. How about an E-Z Bake Climate Oven version? Instead of a light bulb for the “heat” source there would be CO2. Such fun!”
CO2 only starts the reaction. You need to add a bowl of water. The CO2 makes the water evaporate, and the water vapor then amplifies the effect, until all water is vaporized and the Greenhouse Oven reaches its operating temperature of 500 deg C.

July 24, 2014 2:13 pm

Johan says:
July 23, 2014 at 11:02 am
“Hm, on second thoughts, I think I like this one better. It has “sliders” instead of “knobs”!”
That was fun! I managed to save the Earth, but I had to ramp down all CO2 emisions to zero; rampdown beginning at 2015 and ending in 2020. Show it to your green friends, it’ll drive them into the best fascist frenzy they can muster!

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