Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
It’s morning here in Reno, and I thought I’d write a bit more about the Kaya Identity and the Beer Identity. My last post about the Kaya Identity was controversial, and I wanted to see if I could clarify my point. On the last thread, a commenter did a good job of laying out the objections to my work:
Sorry but I think you’ve all entirely misunderstood the point of the identity. The Kaya identity is a means of communicating the factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions.
These are analogous to mathematical factors, for e.g. 6 = 3 x 2. This illustrates that 2 and 3 are factors of 6. This doesn’t prove anything mathematically – it’s just an identity. But it is informative nonetheless. It tells you that 6 can be broken down into factors of 2 and 3. In the same way, CO2 emissions can be broken down into factors of population, GDP per population, energy per population, and CO2 emissions per energy.
That is a very clear and succinct description of what the Kaya Identity is supposed to do. The only problem is … it doesn’t do that.
Let me take another shot at explaining why. To start with, the Kaya Identity states:
where “CO2 emissions” are the CO2 emissions of say a given country; “Population” is the population of that country; “GDP” is gross domestic production of the country, which is the total value of all the goods and services produced; and “Energy” is energy consumed by the country.
The Beer Identity, on the other hand, states the following:
Where all of the other variables have the same value as in the Kaya Identity, and “GBP” is gross beer production by the country.
I think that everyone would agree with those two definitions. They would also agree that both of them are clearly true.
Now, as the commenter said above, when we write
6 = 3 x 2
it tells us that six can be broken into factors of three and two. Not only that, but we can say that for example
(6 * 0.9) = 3 x (2 * 0.9)
That is to say, if we change one of the factors by e.g. multiplying it times 0.9, the total also changes by multiplying it by 0.9.
But is that true of the Beer Identity? Suppose we get more efficient at producing beer, so that it only takes 90& of the energy to make the same amount of beer. Will this decrease our CO2 production by 10%, such that
Well … no. It’s obvious that changing our beer production to make it 10% more energy-efficient will NOT reduce CO2 emissions by 10%. In other words, despite it being unquestionably true, we have no guarantee at all that such an identity actually reflects real world conditions. And the reason why it is not true is that it doesn’t include all of the factors that go into the emission of the CO2, it only includes the beer.
Now, I can hear you thinking that, well, it doesn’t work for gross beer production, but it does work for gross domestic production.
And up until yesterday, I was convinced that the Kaya Identity doesn’t work for GDP any more than it works for GBP … but I couldn’t figure out why. Then yesterday, as I was driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with the gorgeous ex-fiancee, I realized the factor that is missing from the Kaya Identity is … me, driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with my gorgeous ex-fiancee.
The problem is … I’m burning energy, and I’m emitting CO2, but I’m not part of the GDP. I’m not producing anything with that energy—no goods, no services, nothing. My CO2 emission is a part of the total, but it is not included in the Kaya Identity anywhere.
So in fact, the Kaya Identity does NOT tell us the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions” as the commenter said.
And that to me is the problem with the Kaya Identity. It’s not that it is false. It is that it gives a false sense of security that we’ve included everything, when in fact we haven’t. And because it looks like mathematical truth, we have folks who take it as gospel, and object strongly when it is questioned or laughed at. Steven Mosher thinks I was wrong to laugh at the Kaya Identity, and I do respect his and the other opinions on the matter, his science-fu is strong … but in fact, the Kaya Identity is no more complete than the Beer Identity, which is why I laughed at it.
So that’s my objection. It’s not that the Kaya Identity is false. It can’t be, by definition its true.
It is that it gives the false impression of mathematical certitude, the impression that it represents the real world, the idea that it identifies the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised” … but it doesn’t. This false certainty, because people think it’s “mathematically demonstrable”, leads people to not question whether it applies to the real world.
Finally, in closing let me repeat something I said in the comments on the first thread, which likely didn’t get seen because it was somewhere down around the five hundredth comment.
l hear rumblings that people think that Anthony shouldn’t have published this piece of mine, or should disavow it in some fashion. This totally misunderstands both what Watts Up With That (WUWT) does, and Anthony’s position in the game. The strength of WUWT is not that it is always right or that it publishes only the best stuff that’s guaranteed to be valid.
The beauty and value of WUWT that it is the world’s premier location for public peer review of climate science. On a personal level, the public peer review afforded by WUWT is of immense use to me, because my work either gets falsified or not very quickly … or else, as in this case, there’s an interesting ongoing debate. For me, being shown to be wrong is more valuable than being shown to be right. If I’m right, well, I thought so to begin with or I wouldn’t have published it, and it doesn’t change my direction.
But if someone can point out my mistakes, it saves me endless time following blind alleys and wrong paths. And my opinions on the Kaya Identity may indeed be wrong.
There is much value in this public defenestration of some hapless piece of bad science, whether it is mine or someone else’s. It is important to know not only which ideas are wrong, but exactly why they are wrong. When Anthony publishes scientific claims from the edges of the field, generally they are quickly either confirmed or falsified. This is hugely educational for scientists of all kinds, to know how to counter some of the incorrect arguments, as well as giving room for those unusual ideas which tomorrow may be mainstream ideas.
So it is not Anthony’s job to determine whether or not the work of the guest authors will stand the harsh light of public exposure. That’s the job of the peer reviewers, who are you and I and everyone making defensible supported scientific comments. Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece, he couldn’t do that job. There’s no way that one man’s wisdom can substitute for that of the crowd in the free marketplace of scientific ideas. Bear in mind that even with peer review, something like two-thirds of peer-reviewed science is falsified within a year, and Anthony is making judgements, publish or don’t publish, on dozens of papers every week.
So please, dear friends, cut Anthony some slack. He’s just providing the arena wherein in 2014 we practice the blood sport of science, the same sport we’ve had for a few hundred years now, ripping the other guys ideas to bits, also known as trying to scientifically falsify another person’s claims that you think don’t hold water. It is where we can get a good reading on whether the ideas will stand up to detailed hostile examination.
It is not Anthony’s job to decide if mine or any other ideas and expositions and claims will withstand that test of time … and indeed, it is often of value for him to publish things that will not stand the test of time, so that we can understand exactly where they are lacking.
So please don’t fill up the poor man’s email box with outrage simply because you think a post is not scientifically valid enough to be published. Send your emails to the guest author instead, or simply post your objections in a comment on the thread. Anthony is just providing the boxing ring. It is not his job to predict in advance who is going to win the fight. His job is to fill the fight cards with interesting bouts … and given the number of comments on my previous post about the Beer Identity, and the huge popularity of his website, he is doing it very well.
Regards to each and all of you, my best to Mosher and all the folks who have commented, and my great thanks to Anthony for the huge amount of work he does behind the scenes to keep this all going. I’m on the road again, and my highway CO2 emissions are still not included in the Kaya Identity …
w.
As Always: If you disagree with something that someone has said, please have the courtesy to quote their exact words. It avoids much confusion and misunderstanding.
i’ve been mediating on the “identity” for some time now – and i am no longer terrified of it – and only slightly bewildered
it remains for me a secondary issue – i would rather focus on the degree of threat in increasing co2 – and its corollary – the necessity of reducing man-made co2 emissions – if i’m defeated on that issue – then the implications of the kaya equation could take center stage
i would first insist on knowing the cost as well as the man-made co2 emissions – it looks like kaya would give a correct picture of the co2 output of an economy based entirely on nuclear energy – as well a entirely on wind turbines – but does it tell me the cost of each – or rather – the efficiency of each – i’m not sure – if so – kudos for kaya yoichi
—
in a way – these threads on kaya identity are an example of how the alarmists can control the debate – by drawing attention away from the real issue – into a topic where their assumptions are taken for granted
that’s not a criticism of these threads – i see that kaya will need to be confronted from time to time – and its best to be prepared – once again – thank you Willis
–john eyon
Willis,
Like you I’ve been busy traveling.
On July 13, 2014 (12:57 am AND 1:08 am) you quoted me as follows:
Your responses:
Well, Pielke Jr. is an expert on this, and I’m not, so see his work for stronger examples. For myself, I find the identity useful for thinking about recent rises and declines in U.S. CO2 emissions. When the recession hit in 2008, GDP/pop declined, leading to a decline in energy use and thus emissions as well. And as electricity generation has shifted from coal to natural gas fuel, the value of the energy-CO2 linkage declined, leading to a decline in emissions. In both cases, the identity serves a useful accounting role for understanding the effects of structural shifts.
(You go on to say that GDP would increase but other things, notably energy use, would not.)
The point of your scenario, as you note, is that economic structure affects the value of the linkage between GDP and energy use. (You’ll grant, I presume, that your specific scenario is hopelessly unrealistic. Such a government decree would have numerous unintended consequences; it could never simply achieve its intended objective.)
I quite agree with your basic point here. (Similar points have been made by rgbatduke and others.) But that does not negate the usefulness of the Kaya identity. As I note above, the identity is frequently useful precisely for the purpose of accounting for the effects of structural changes within one economy — or for that matter, accounting for the effects of structural differences between one economy and another (rgbatduke’s concern).
I presume that those who use the Kaya identity do so competently — not claiming that the same parameter values apply to all times and places. I’m sure, of course, that the identity can be abused.
Indeed, they’re often not, which is precisely why I specified ‘other things equal’. Nonetheless, there are regularities that we can count on.
Quite right. GDP/pop may shift (“exogenously”, as economists say). The rest of the Kaya Identity then suggests how this affects CO2 emissions.
Again, quite right. Here there’s an exogenous shift in energy/GDP. Again, the Kaya Identity accounts for the effects of this, holding other things equal. Note that, both before and after the shift in the value of energy/GDP, it remains the case that more GDP means more energy use. The issue is simply that the parameter value has shifted.
Likewise!
d.
According to Dr. Kaya the Kaya Identity was conceived as applying to global parameters, not regional, so your example of Hong Kong is not a valid usage.
Scott Wilmot Bennett says:
July 16, 2014 at 3:39 am
“Singapore’s GDP per capita is 70 times that of Bangladesh but Singapore’s CO2 emissions per capita are just 7 times larger!”
I think you have got the total/per capita thing mixed up again – the following page claims that Singapore’s CO2 emissions are ~150 times larger than Bangladesh’s *per capita*.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_carbon_dioxide_emissions_per_capita
“None of these relationships are directly proportional. They demonstrate either inverse or fractional rates of proportion.”
When you use the correct numbers, the relationship is more or less direct.
“The only way to resolve the impasse is to imagine incredible efficiencies for energy production in the cases that don’t follow the ‘model’.”
You’ve heard of nuclear power, right?
Cheers, 🙂
Oops, error in the previous post of mine-
the ratio of Singapore’s per capita CO2 to Bangladesh’s is currently 23.333 from the reference I listed in my last (not ~150, I used the 1990 values not the current one).
As point of comparison, the current ratio of Singapore’s per capita GDP to Bangladesh’s is ~ 31
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita
Cheers, 🙂
not competing to be a bore, but who cares about co2?
cereally.
@Scott Wilmot Bennett: I think you restated my point – I put “Kaya Identity” in scare quotes precisely because I don’t believe it is actually an identity 🙂
dp says:
July 16, 2014 at 10:53 am
Thanks, dp … cite?
And … why would it be valid for the planet but not for a portion of the planet? The planet both receives and exports energy just like countries do …
w.
krischel says:
July 16, 2014 at 6:06 pm
My Apologies!
I did restate what you had said.
We do agree to agree then!! 😉
cheers,
Scott
This is a cross post from old thread:
The problem with the Kaya is that it isn’t an equation or a formula and therefore has no claim to that kind of veracity. Governments might start culling population or attempt to reduce GDP rather than looking at the root cause of inefficient energy production.
Australia is an odd case, in this context, being resources rich, it is also the worlds biggest supplier of fossil fuels. Australia’s resources stoke the fires of the worlds energy production. So much so, that It has now become more profitable (Or two expensive) for Australia to use its natural gas for power generation.
I would argue that there needs to be a couple of more terms in that “equation”. The first one, is in my opinion the most import of all. For the wizards of the black art of economics, it is the equivalent of “he who can’t be named”; the Money Supply!
Is it debt based or credit based? The real reason for growth economies and built in obsolescence, is that money is always chasing money. And I don’t mean simple profit. I mean that the Supply itself, comes into existence, mostly as debt. Thus, the world is chasing the virtual not the actual economy!!
The other term that I think might be very important to include, is physical extent, the geographic size of a Nation compared with its GDP. Two of the examples I chose are extreme because of the tiny space they take up on the globe. Australia is massive by any standard, so is it even rational to compare its GDP with that of Singapore? And if we did, are we really being aware of just how abstract the idea is!!
Correction: “So much so, that It has now become more profitable for Australia to sell its natural gas rather than use it for power generation.”
Scott Wilmot Bennett says: July 17, 2014 at 2:31 am And I don’t mean simple profit. I mean that the Supply itself, comes into existence, mostly as debt. Thus, the world is chasing the virtual not the actual economy!!
Not true for what actually counts – tangible goods. Profit creates a surplus, surplus controls the price. No profit= no surplus= scarcity & extremely high prices (=USSR)
There are plenty of cars unsold, lots of food left uneaten, shelves packed with every imaginable gizmo just sitting there becoming obsolete, etc. That surplus is real not “virtual” and it was created by capitalism in the pursuit of profit within a competitive free market where every producer is locked-in to over-produce in the hope that they will sell more than their competition.
That is the real US economy, a land of plenty created by Lady Liberty.
“That surplus is real … it was created by capitalism in the pursuit of profit within a competitive free market where every producer is locked-in to over-produce in the hope that they will sell more than their competition.”
Incorrect on all parameters. Profit is maximized when you sell exactly what you make, no more, no less. Making too few is much better than making too much. If you make too few your “capital” is not sitting idle in a warehouse, you simply will not have made as much profit as you could have.
Your description is of Soviet style central management that decrees how many of a thing is to be made regardless of demand.
Long term profit does not exist in a free market. It cannot exist. If your company is profitable, making Frisbees for instance, other companies will start making Frisbees. The volume of Frisbees is such that your own factory will reduce its prices so as to AVOID that “surplus” of which you speak. All other factories will do likewise.
The least efficient factories will close or make something else. Pretty soon the production of Frisbees and the price of Frisbees and the demand for Frisbees will “meet” at some magical price/quantity.
Because of the existence of patents, the “free market” has never existed in the United States, but it is a bit more free than many European nations, and considerably more free than centrally managed economies.
Mike M says:
July 17, 2014 at 8:11 am
“Supply” as in Money Supply! Have a close look at this, you will find that true “Capitalism” and real free markets, have never actually happened. What you will find is the dirty art of central banking with economics as its propaganda wing. A “discipline” that spares no expense, to make sure that it doesn’t have a working theory of Banking or Money-Supply and their role in market creation and destruction.
I’m not left or right, both are wings of the same bird. I’m a pragmatist. If you genuinely want to understand the problem beyond the cliches, you have to ask why do economies always have to grow, why does you “gizmo” have a limited life span (Planned obsolescence). Yes, how is wasted surplus even possible in a free market, where real demand drives real supply? Yes it is a competitive market but what is it ultimately competing against?
Ultimately, profit must overcome the cost of Money (The loan you got to buy the resources for your steelworks, the products of which you sell to manufacturers who loaned money to pay you until they can sell their products to the consumers who loaned money to buy the goods; on credit.
The point is, that the Money Supply today, far exceeds the world’s entire GDP. Making all ‘economic’ activity virtual by comparison. And all this money comes into existence as debt. Because this ‘Supply’ is created out of thin air (No real reserve.) it is decoupled from reality.
The result of this system is that wealth is concentrated into narrower and narrower elites. Currently 90% of the worlds entire population own less than 15% of its wealth. A tiny 10% of the global population own 85%.
Just to get both feet on the ground : go and try to put the “identity” into Excel. Put in values for each: pop(heads), GDP($),Energy(Watt), and… well not CO2 because that is what you want to solve for. Thats where it breaks down….. But lets continue to excel: Leave it as the C02/Watt Ratio without computing this from inputs. Then you can solve the equation for C02. Only when you change the fixed ratio will the C02 change. so in this case you can only change the C02/Enery ratio. So your energy/GDP and C02/Energy are not linked any more.
I have no idea how the climate procrastinator works: forecast.uchicago.edu/kaya.html buti assume it just greps output from a “Model”. FAIL.
“Daniel G. says:
July 13, 2014 at 7:36 am
[…]
If you increase pop, gdp/pop doesn’t decrease proportionally, because there will be an increase of gdp. Result: co2 doesn’t remain the same.”
Regrettably, the Kaya thing does not include that gdp-pop tkat makes gdp grow relationship. So, if what you say is true, it is incomplete.
But it does include GDP both in the numerator and the denominator, cancelling it out (and also population and energy). Unless GDP “above the line” is different from GDP “below the line”. I wonder what sort of game this is, but it is not algebra.
Just to bring forward some discussion from the older thread. Scott W Bennett’s points about Bangladesh, HK and Singapore indicating a negative relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP are misleading – because he had only taken three examples.
If one plots the data for all the countries in the world – as I have done – see links. The positive linear relationship works ‘just fine’. I have shown Bangladesh, HK and Singapore in pink dots.
CO2 Emissions vs GDP
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14486064739/
log(CO2 Emissions) vs log(GDP)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14673065305/
Bangladesh lies far above the trend line – a reflection of its low-tech economy. HK sits pretty-much right on the trend line. Singapore lies a bit below the trend line – and lies might be the best word as their last set of CO2 emissions sound too good to be true.
Sorry – error! The pink spots on my previous graphs contained errors. Revised links below. Now it’s Bangladesh which sits pretty-much on the trend line. HK is slightly below it (possibly due to the Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station). Singapore is well below it (possibly due to a palm-oil* burning power station and some creative accounting).
* How very green!
CO2 Emissions vs GDP
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14513410347/
log(CO2 Emissions) vs log(GDP)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14697464714/
Still, in spite of the earlier mistakes, the graphs show a good positive linear correlation between CO2 emissions and GDP.
I will also do some graphs of CO2 emissions vs Population.
CO2 Emissions vs Population
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14676851396/
log(CO2 Emissions) vs log(Population)
https://www.flickr.com/photos/126112946@N07/14696689991/
I have to withdraw the statement based on a re-reading of my original source:
Raupach, M.R.; et al. (May 22, 2007), Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions
In the paper they provide a definition of the Kaya Identity but on re-reading it, they've defined a particular application of the identity, that being, global F. The willipedia compounds this by repeating the definition as specifically applying to global parameters. I've found no solid reference from Kaya himself that requires this limitation.
Second point – Kaya himself is a pragmatist, investing his interest in global problems. It is, for that purpose, probably not helpful to use his identity to do a full analysis of Tuvalu, Ghana, and Tristan da Cunha in seeking global solutions to decarbonization, but yes, it can be done. It may even solve regional problems of resistance to micromanaging people if the royal family of the Kingdom of Tonga can leverage such analysis for their purposes while ignoring KOT's nearly invisible global footprint. Crazier ideals have been floated. As a tool of skepticism the KI can be used to show how futile it is for Oz to flog their economy with a carbon tax while China and India backfill what ever miserable small hole in the CO2 budget Oz may make. So yes, I concede that point, too. I was not thinking clearly as a climate warrior in the blood sport of climate science.