Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
It’s morning here in Reno, and I thought I’d write a bit more about the Kaya Identity and the Beer Identity. My last post about the Kaya Identity was controversial, and I wanted to see if I could clarify my point. On the last thread, a commenter did a good job of laying out the objections to my work:
Sorry but I think you’ve all entirely misunderstood the point of the identity. The Kaya identity is a means of communicating the factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions.
These are analogous to mathematical factors, for e.g. 6 = 3 x 2. This illustrates that 2 and 3 are factors of 6. This doesn’t prove anything mathematically – it’s just an identity. But it is informative nonetheless. It tells you that 6 can be broken down into factors of 2 and 3. In the same way, CO2 emissions can be broken down into factors of population, GDP per population, energy per population, and CO2 emissions per energy.
That is a very clear and succinct description of what the Kaya Identity is supposed to do. The only problem is … it doesn’t do that.
Let me take another shot at explaining why. To start with, the Kaya Identity states:
where “CO2 emissions” are the CO2 emissions of say a given country; “Population” is the population of that country; “GDP” is gross domestic production of the country, which is the total value of all the goods and services produced; and “Energy” is energy consumed by the country.
The Beer Identity, on the other hand, states the following:
Where all of the other variables have the same value as in the Kaya Identity, and “GBP” is gross beer production by the country.
I think that everyone would agree with those two definitions. They would also agree that both of them are clearly true.
Now, as the commenter said above, when we write
6 = 3 x 2
it tells us that six can be broken into factors of three and two. Not only that, but we can say that for example
(6 * 0.9) = 3 x (2 * 0.9)
That is to say, if we change one of the factors by e.g. multiplying it times 0.9, the total also changes by multiplying it by 0.9.
But is that true of the Beer Identity? Suppose we get more efficient at producing beer, so that it only takes 90& of the energy to make the same amount of beer. Will this decrease our CO2 production by 10%, such that
Well … no. It’s obvious that changing our beer production to make it 10% more energy-efficient will NOT reduce CO2 emissions by 10%. In other words, despite it being unquestionably true, we have no guarantee at all that such an identity actually reflects real world conditions. And the reason why it is not true is that it doesn’t include all of the factors that go into the emission of the CO2, it only includes the beer.
Now, I can hear you thinking that, well, it doesn’t work for gross beer production, but it does work for gross domestic production.
And up until yesterday, I was convinced that the Kaya Identity doesn’t work for GDP any more than it works for GBP … but I couldn’t figure out why. Then yesterday, as I was driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with the gorgeous ex-fiancee, I realized the factor that is missing from the Kaya Identity is … me, driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with my gorgeous ex-fiancee.
The problem is … I’m burning energy, and I’m emitting CO2, but I’m not part of the GDP. I’m not producing anything with that energy—no goods, no services, nothing. My CO2 emission is a part of the total, but it is not included in the Kaya Identity anywhere.
So in fact, the Kaya Identity does NOT tell us the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions” as the commenter said.
And that to me is the problem with the Kaya Identity. It’s not that it is false. It is that it gives a false sense of security that we’ve included everything, when in fact we haven’t. And because it looks like mathematical truth, we have folks who take it as gospel, and object strongly when it is questioned or laughed at. Steven Mosher thinks I was wrong to laugh at the Kaya Identity, and I do respect his and the other opinions on the matter, his science-fu is strong … but in fact, the Kaya Identity is no more complete than the Beer Identity, which is why I laughed at it.
So that’s my objection. It’s not that the Kaya Identity is false. It can’t be, by definition its true.
It is that it gives the false impression of mathematical certitude, the impression that it represents the real world, the idea that it identifies the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised” … but it doesn’t. This false certainty, because people think it’s “mathematically demonstrable”, leads people to not question whether it applies to the real world.
Finally, in closing let me repeat something I said in the comments on the first thread, which likely didn’t get seen because it was somewhere down around the five hundredth comment.
l hear rumblings that people think that Anthony shouldn’t have published this piece of mine, or should disavow it in some fashion. This totally misunderstands both what Watts Up With That (WUWT) does, and Anthony’s position in the game. The strength of WUWT is not that it is always right or that it publishes only the best stuff that’s guaranteed to be valid.
The beauty and value of WUWT that it is the world’s premier location for public peer review of climate science. On a personal level, the public peer review afforded by WUWT is of immense use to me, because my work either gets falsified or not very quickly … or else, as in this case, there’s an interesting ongoing debate. For me, being shown to be wrong is more valuable than being shown to be right. If I’m right, well, I thought so to begin with or I wouldn’t have published it, and it doesn’t change my direction.
But if someone can point out my mistakes, it saves me endless time following blind alleys and wrong paths. And my opinions on the Kaya Identity may indeed be wrong.
There is much value in this public defenestration of some hapless piece of bad science, whether it is mine or someone else’s. It is important to know not only which ideas are wrong, but exactly why they are wrong. When Anthony publishes scientific claims from the edges of the field, generally they are quickly either confirmed or falsified. This is hugely educational for scientists of all kinds, to know how to counter some of the incorrect arguments, as well as giving room for those unusual ideas which tomorrow may be mainstream ideas.
So it is not Anthony’s job to determine whether or not the work of the guest authors will stand the harsh light of public exposure. That’s the job of the peer reviewers, who are you and I and everyone making defensible supported scientific comments. Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece, he couldn’t do that job. There’s no way that one man’s wisdom can substitute for that of the crowd in the free marketplace of scientific ideas. Bear in mind that even with peer review, something like two-thirds of peer-reviewed science is falsified within a year, and Anthony is making judgements, publish or don’t publish, on dozens of papers every week.
So please, dear friends, cut Anthony some slack. He’s just providing the arena wherein in 2014 we practice the blood sport of science, the same sport we’ve had for a few hundred years now, ripping the other guys ideas to bits, also known as trying to scientifically falsify another person’s claims that you think don’t hold water. It is where we can get a good reading on whether the ideas will stand up to detailed hostile examination.
It is not Anthony’s job to decide if mine or any other ideas and expositions and claims will withstand that test of time … and indeed, it is often of value for him to publish things that will not stand the test of time, so that we can understand exactly where they are lacking.
So please don’t fill up the poor man’s email box with outrage simply because you think a post is not scientifically valid enough to be published. Send your emails to the guest author instead, or simply post your objections in a comment on the thread. Anthony is just providing the boxing ring. It is not his job to predict in advance who is going to win the fight. His job is to fill the fight cards with interesting bouts … and given the number of comments on my previous post about the Beer Identity, and the huge popularity of his website, he is doing it very well.
Regards to each and all of you, my best to Mosher and all the folks who have commented, and my great thanks to Anthony for the huge amount of work he does behind the scenes to keep this all going. I’m on the road again, and my highway CO2 emissions are still not included in the Kaya Identity …
w.
As Always: If you disagree with something that someone has said, please have the courtesy to quote their exact words. It avoids much confusion and misunderstanding.
@ur momisugly JK
Thanks, good catch, yes I should have had (0.95^2) there.
I’m not producing anything with that energy—no goods, no services, nothing.
Wrong, you produced formal GDP when you bought the gasoline, bought the car, changed the oil. serviced the brakes, paid a toll etc. Also, you informally produced utility by moving people somewhere they wanted to be.
In any case, an equation with cancelling factors is just a dumb equation.
@dp 6:19.
Check your assumptions.. page 12 of the 8Mb pDF Pathways to deep decarbonization.
As defined, here, Willis makes no mistake.
As he stated in first post, a Laugh Out Loud moment.
The fourth term is poorly written.
Making an appearance of an algebraic absurdity.
You could have saved all the typing by, snickering ..pointing out the actual definition of this term and moving on.
Instead… you sneer at the commenters here,our intelligence is impaired, we do not comprehend higher maths, you also seem to have “Willis Derangement Syndrome”.
And keep telling us viewers we do not appreciate the texture, warp and weave of the Emperors new Clothes.
Because we do not see that CO2 emissions does not mean CO2 emissions, as used in the 4th term.
Do not mistake your blindness for that of others.
I have seen this behaviour before, it reoccurs in government bureaucrats at an alarming rate.
Where we taxpayers are assured that what the document states is not what the document means.
Until we wind up in court being raped by sub clause 3 paragraph 4.
Ian W says:
July 14, 2014 at 5:38 am
“France gets 75% of its power from Nuclear energy – and you say that is ‘stuff that hasn’t happened yet’?”
And your evidence that the Kaya identity doesn’t work for France is?
“Claim 2 — Energy generation is equivalent to CO2 generation”
You’re way off base here. The CO2,/Energy term in Kaya explicitly takes account of precisely this factor. If France moved to 100% Carbon sources for its energy, it’s CO2/Energy term would be 4 times as high, which *everything else being equal* would result in its CO2 emissions being 4 times greater.
Respectfully, your criticisms fail because you don’t understand the *basics* here.
Cheers, 🙂
Whatever it is that Roger Pielke Jr is doing, he is not doing it using the Kaya Identity.
He says:
However,
1. If
c= 2, g=20, p=4, e=8.
Then
RHS = p x (g/p) x (e/g) x (c/e) = 4 x (20/4) x (8/20) x (2/8) = 4 x 5 x 0.4 x 0.25 = 2
Therefore CO2 Emissions = 2 if c= 2, g=20, p=4, e=8.
2. If
c= 2, g=2000, p=4, e=8. (Increasing g)
Then
RHS = p x (g/p) x (e/g) x (c/e) = 4 x (2000/4) x (8/2000) x (2/8) = 4 x 500 x 0.004 x 0.25 = 2
Therefore CO2 Emissions = 2 if c= 2, g=2000, p=4, e=8.
————————————————————————–
Again he says:
From 1. above
c= 2, g=20, p=4, e=4. (Reducing e)
Then
RHS = p x (g/p) x (e/g) x (c/e) = 4 x (20/4) x (4/20) x (2/4) = 4 x 5 x 0.2 x 0.5 = 2
Therefore CO2 Emissions = 2 if c= 2, g=20, p=4, e=4
—————————————————————————-
You get the picture!
What I actually think he is doing, is using numbers that have not been derived from the ratios of the Kaya but are completely independent and therefore completely arbitrary, such that:
c= 2, g=20, p=4, e=8.
c = g*e*c*p
c =20x8x2x4
c = 1280
Or
c= 2, g=200, p=4, e=8.
c = g*e*c*p
c =200x8x2x4
c = 12800
If so, the ‘construction’ is no longer an identity but a crude product of meaningless factors (Meaningless because they are mathematically independent).
It doesn’t matter if they are real world figures. If they aren’t derived from the identity statement then it no longer holds any claim to mathematical rigour of the ‘Kaya statement’.
rgbatduke:
Thankyou for your reply to me at July 14, 2014 at 6:00 am which includes
Again, I agree and I have been attempting – with no success – to obtain a definition of the “factors” which would specify what should and what should not be included in the “identity”. At present the ONLY use of the Kaya identity is propaganda because – as I have been persistently saying – it is inadequately specified and can be used to suggest anything. Or, as you put it in your first post
Richard
dp @10:49pm:
“Once we’re beyond the mechanics of the math the worth of the process can be questioned and that is a healthy exercise.”
Agreed.
Johan says:
July 14, 2014 at 2:14 am
Will says: July 14, 2014 at 1:56 am
But I guess I am missing your point. If you meant a = a/b * b is meaningful then you miss the fact that a on the left is different that a on the right, your example, a on the right = 12.8 and a on the left is 10.9, illogical. Not to mention the value of b is 1 and 1.18 respectively.
Applying elementary rules of algebra:
a = a x 1 = a x (b / b) = a x [b x (1/b)] = a x [(1/b) x b] = [a x (1/b)] x b = (a/b) x b
In my example 12.8 kg CO2 is a; 1.18 gallons is b and 10.9 kg CO2/gallon is (a/b).
So of course 12.8 doesn’t equal 10.9; for the simple fact that 12.8 = a and 10.9 = (a/b).
Since when is a = (a/b), if b is not equal to one (and for the sake of convenience one might also assume b is different from zero) ???
**************************************************************
You say a = a/b * a, which is absolutely true but doesn’t mean much.
you say b = 1.18
solve for a
a = a / 1.18 * 1.18
The only way you know a is 12.8 is because you declared it ahead of time.
But I declare it to be pink elephants
Pink elephants = pink elephants / 1.18 * 1.18
Pe = Pe so I’m right too.
Michael 2 @12:00 am:
“It’s fun to pick it apart and contrary to your assertion, it is also on display at the world’s leading resource for casual information — Wikipedia!”
It is not contrary to my assertion. I realize there are too many comments here for everyone to read everything, but I have stated several times already in this thread that this abominable “identity” shows up on Wikipedia as well. You are quite right on that front.
The real point, however, is that *no-one* uses the identity. It cannot be used, by definition.
Instead, what they do (after showing the silly identity in their papers — or on Wikipedia) is run a straight-forward, every-day, simple, multiplication calculation based on *per unit* numbers. Indeed, even the Wikipedia page shows the calculation taking place on a per unit basis, notwithstanding the large page-width graphic of the useless identity.
So we have the ironic situation in which this identity shows up everywhere, but no-one actually uses it.
It isn’t Willis’ fault that so many researchers keep writing the darn thing in their papers. His mistake was simply not reading the papers in more detail to realize that the researchers don’t actually end up using the cited “identity” in any way.
rgbatduke says:
July 14, 2014 at 4:53 am
“What, exactly, is the advantage of adding the the GDP step in that? We learn a bit from GDP/population times energy/GDP that we didn’t already know from energy/population, but not much, and what we do learn isn’t likely to be universal or describable in functional form.”
I’m not sure why you’re having a hard time seeing the value of including GDP – clearly, the level of economic growth is related to energy use (and, hence, CO2 emissions)- GDP measures (amongst other things) the stuff that gets made and moved in an economy. The simplest way to eliminate all carbon emissions would be to destroy all economies – reduce GDP to 0 and no CO2 emissions. Problem solved. No new technology needed or expensive and time consuming efforts to encourage conservation or whatever. The only problem is people like their economies and, generally, want them to be as big as possible.
As a practical matter, it costs money (or GDP) to affect parts of the Kaya, so one can, in theory, evaluate the cost of various proposals. All other things being equal, dropping CO2 levels by 5% would cost a country 5% of its GDP unless it can find a way to make its energy generation less carbonized. If a CO2 reduction scheme will cost about 2% of GDP but will only reduce the C02/E by 0.5% most people would probably not be a good value. 80% of the CO2 benefit would come from the loss to the economy of (for instance) inflated costs on relevant items.
Cheers, 🙂
Will Nelson @9:09am:
Quite right. The alleged “identity” cannot possibly be meaningful in any substantive sense. Anyone arguing that we somehow have “more information” because we have written self-cancelling variables on the same side of the equals sign doesn’t know what they are talking about.
Again, it is surprising to see so many people trying to defend the identity as though it teaches us something, when the silly thing is never used in practice anyway.
—–
Well, I’ll check back in a time or two, but I think we’ve about exhausted this thread.
Johan says:
July 14, 2014 at 2:14 am
[…]
Since when is a = (a/b), if b is not equal to one (and for the sake of convenience one might also assume b is different from zero) ???
******************************************
You confused me. Is your rate 10.9 kg CO2 per (1) gallon OR 10.9 kg CO2 per 1.18 gallons? You might want to answer this one carefully.
John West said:
July 14, 2014 at 7:19 am
I was really struggling to work out how to apply the Kaya practically, then I saw you using it with ease! I checked the above and it calculated for me! 😉
However, your next line had me stumped:
How did you do this, I wondered. On careful examination I noticed that you changed
population but (GDP/Population) had remained the same. This is fine but it means that GDP
must be changed in the next ratio also (Energy/GDP):
“CO2↑ = 90 people x ($10,000 per capita) x (0.111111111111111 kWh/$) x (990 Tons CO2↑/kWh)
= 99,000,000 Tons CO2↑”
I’d like to know how to use the Kaya Identity as constructed. Let me know what you think.
It’s very late here, will look at this tomorrow, cheers.
Wikipedia definition of “Flogging a Dead Horse” should include an External Link to this thread.
It is worth looking at actual data to see that the Kaya identity be illuminating when comparing countries. See graphs in my post here
http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/a-graphical-look-at-the-kaya-identity/
Nicely done, Ruth! Your graphs do an excellent job of showing what the addition of different factors do for providing a picture of the real world IMO.
I believe the link is broken though – this is address in question
http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/a-graphical-look-at-the-kaya-identity/
Cheers, 🙂
Because comparing the GDP of Kuwait to the GDP of Vanuatu to the GDP of the Catholic Church to the GDP of the United States is not, actually a useful exercise. Kuwait makes and exports one thing — oil (plus, doubtless, a small trickle of other stuff). Vanuatu has a tiny handful of exports and has a correspondingly tiny GDP. The Catholic Church doesn’t make anything at all of concrete value, and yet is the 19th wealthiest “country” on Earth. The United States has an enormously complex economy. GDP is also not a measure of “growth” — it is an expression of the value of goods and services produced within an economy. But Vanuatu makes very different “stuff” than Kuwait or the US or world Catholicism, and has a very different standard of living in a very different climate where one has very different fundamental needs.
Your inability to see this point may be reflected in your suggesting that the “simplest” way to eliminate all carbon emissions would be to reduce the GDP to 0. First of all, that wouldn’t do it because human contributions to global CO_2 levels are one small part of huge gain terms (balanced by huge loss terms) in e.g. the Bern formula. Natural emissions and absorptions would continue. It isn’t even clear that net gain would immediately trend to zero as the solution is non-Markovian with feedbacks, just as there is some reasonably serious argument over how accurately we know the natural vs anthropogenic decomposition in this equation (or, by extension, how much of the additional CO_2 is truly anthropogenic).
Second, the only way to make a GDP go to zero is to make the population go to zero, because another term for a nation with zero GDP is “extinct”. Humans require food, water, sufficient shelter and other protections from the environment, and an opportunity to reproduce and care for offspring and even a barter economy or hunter-gatherer economy that meets those needs has a “GDP”, even if it isn’t based on a monetary currency. Humans by existing produce CO_2 with every breath, so only by them completely dying can the “carbon emissions” from anthropogenic sources go to zero. If they insist on doing things like cooking their food or living north of the tropics, they start up the CO_2 emissions tree long before there is any meaningful shift in GDP compared to their raw food eating tropical cousins who have yet to discover or “need” fire in order to survive.
As you note, one can certainly reduce human carbon emissions by killing off populations. That is the most prominent feature of this “identity” — if one makes a small mountain of assumptions — most notably a homogeneity that is virtually nonexistent in the primary world economies — it is easy to reduce carbon consumption by killing people or sterilizing them.
Of course this isn’t really true, as even in our economy, some people bike to work, live in small communities where one can bike or walk most places, are supplied by nuclear or hydroelectric power, and generally have a small “carbon footprint”. Other people — note that I’m reducing this to the level of individuals — fly all over the place in jets, logging as much as a million miles a year as they work, spending substantial time in cold or air conditioned climates where they burn carbon with the lights and AC and heater that is on all of the time. You could kill any number of the former to equal the “carbon impact” of a single one of the latter (and amusing, people who globe trot to sell the climate catastrophe are like as not in the latter category. Both of these individuals can easily be “American” — or “Indian” or Chinese” or “Kuwaiti” — and the GDP doesn’t really reflect their prevalence on average across multiple countries with very different economic schemes and distributed productivity.
You’re reminding me of a line from “The Sheep Look Up”, a prophetic novel by Brunner — at the very end of the story a suitably programmed supercomputer spits out The Answer, the way humanity will save itself from extinction. What is it? Kill the 200 million wealthiest individuals on the planet.
And this, of course, is the all-too-simple political subtext of this equation. According to the Bern formula, we will never be carbon neutral as long as we peskily insist on living. We could drop back to a 16th century economy and we would still increase atmospheric CO_2 at a steady (perhaps slower) rate. The only way to drop it to zero (with anything even vaguely plausible technology even in a pure science fiction novel) is to wipe out not 200 million, but 7 billion, humans, or else drop the standard of living to pre-Holocene levels and wait for nature to take its course.
This is what the catastrophic climate change folks never seem to grasp. You aren’t balancing a possible future catastrophe against minor inconvenience now. You’re balancing an ongoing, real-time catastrophe that is happening right now because of the measures being taken to prevent it against the possibility of future catastrophe. You are performing the moral (literally) equivalent of sacrificing children to the gods by throwing them into the volcano to prevent it from erupting or ripping the still beating hearts out of captive slaves in order to ensure a good harvest next year. Maybe it works, maybe it doesn’t, but in the meantime its a job and keeps the population down and the wealth under the control of the wealthy and their obedient priesthood.
rgb
rgbatduke:
re your post at July 14, 2014 at 11:03 am.
Yes! Thankyou! Hear, hear!
That one post collates everything I have been trying to say about this subject for days, and says all of it more clearly and more cogently than I have achieved.
Hopefully everybody with an interest in the subject will read your excellent summary of the issues.
Again, thankyou.
Richard
rgbatduke says:
July 14, 2014 at 11:03 am
“Because comparing the GDP of Kuwait to the GDP of Vanuatu to the GDP of the Catholic Church to the GDP of the United States is not, actually a useful exercise. Kuwait makes and exports one thing — oil (plus, doubtless, a small trickle of other stuff). Vanuatu has a tiny handful of exports and has a correspondingly tiny GDP. The Catholic Church doesn’t make anything at all of concrete value, and yet is the 19th wealthiest “country” on Earth. The United States has an enormously complex economy. GDP is also not a measure of “growth” — it is an expression of the value of goods and services produced within an economy. But Vanuatu makes very different “stuff” than Kuwait or the US or world Catholicism, and has a very different standard of living in a very different climate where one has very different fundamental needs.”
I’m sorry but you are mistaken about this. Comparing GDP levels between countries doesn’t tell you much about the *specifics* of an economy, but does give a decent view of its general size and comparing changes in the growth of GDP between countries. There are many ways to make this point but perhaps the simplest is trade – countries with a lot of GDP can buy a lot of stuff from other countries and trade causes two countries to be more similar to one another. Vanuatu probably doesn’t build any of its own computers but there are probably lots of computers on Vanuatu. Vanuatu may have lots of differences with other countries but it has some similarities to other countries and those similarities are partially the result of the size of its economy.
Most of the rest of your post seems to be based on the idea that I was actually advocating reducing the GNP to 0 – I was not – I was pointing out that by not paying attention to GNP you would end up choosing outcomes that are suboptimal.
“And this, of course, is the all-too-simple political subtext of this equation. According to the Bern formula, we will never be carbon neutral as long as we peskily insist on living. We could drop back to a 16th century economy and we would still increase atmospheric CO_2 at a steady (perhaps slower) rate. The only way to drop it to zero (with anything even vaguely plausible technology even in a pure science fiction novel) is to wipe out not 200 million, but 7 billion, humans, or else drop the standard of living to pre-Holocene levels and wait for nature to take its course.”
Take a look at the graphs posted here:
http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/a-graphical-look-at-the-kaya-identity/
You’ll see that GDP vs. CO2 shows a pretty direct linear correlation between the two – for a listing of many countries. Respectfully, I think you are paying way too much attention to what you see as the subtext and ignoring the practical reality that GDP and CO2 emissions are directly related to one another and are likely going to remain so for the foreseeable future. You do not have to be in favor of killing lots of people (which I am not) to recognize this. OTOH, recognizing that they are directly related to one another gives you some idea of the real costs associated with different options.
Cheers, 🙂
Thanks, Shawnhet, for fixing the link!
@ur momisugly Scott Wilmot Bennett
The Plan letters (A-E) correspond to the letters of the choices originally reported by the professor to the rest of the elders. I just varied the factors one at a time in order of appearance in the kaya identity and then an additional combo. Of course, you are correct it is nearly impossible to imagine varying any of the factors in the real world without changing the others as well and the identity doesn’t deal well with evaluating combinations of changes. That’s the problem with the kaya identity as I see it, no terms all factors, way too simple for evaluating real world scenarios.
silly me – i thought the public argument was about the left side of the equation – shouldn’t that be CO2(man-made emissions)
Samuel C Cogar says: July 14, 2014 at 5:36 am
“Thus, his purchase of gasoline was “consumption spending” which added to the GDP ….. but he “burned” it without producing anything of value ….. thus NO increase in GDP.”
Value is determined by what people are willing to pay. Willis paid for the gasoline (added GDP) so he could take a vacation that he though was at least as valuable as the money he paid, otherwise he would not have paid the money. Entertainment is a significant part of the average American’s consumption so it’s a significant part of GDP.
A thing doesn’t have to have value to be counter as GDP. Consider for example the billions of dollars spent on climate research. I would argue a lot of that expenditure has a negative value because it’s used to justify harmful policies. Nevertheless, in the modern world there is a direct correlation between GDP and CO2 emissions.
Wills was wrong to accuse the Kaya equation for being algebraically non-sensical and he was wrong when he said his driving trip produced CO2 without adding to GDP. He was also wrong too dismiss an argument based on the fact that someone said “other things being equal.” That’s a logical method to use when evaluating an equation that explains a process.
Willis’ Beer Identity is funny and it’s actually workable because there is probably a strong correlation beer consumption and CO2 emissions. In fact it might be nearly as accurate as the correlation between population, GDP (prosperity) and CO2. As populations expand and get richer, the produce more CO2 and consume more beer.
I agree that the Kaya equation is “silly.” It’s silly because it presumes to provide a method for calculating a factor (CO2 emissions) that we already track with a relatively high degree of accuracy. It’s silly to write a long equation with factors than only introduce uncertainty to calculate something that is accurately measured. If you want to know how much CO2 a particular country produces, look it up. The equation is also silly in that it includes population and GDP, as if anyone in their right mind would want to reduce population or prosperity just to control our output of plant food.
I have a great respect for Wills. I even named an equation after him.
The Eschenbach Identity: Human Prosperity Factor = CO2 emissions.
(See my post of July 13, 2014 at 2:42 pm.)
Some compare KI with conversions of seconds to minutes to hours. Well every second is the same. Every minute is the same. Every hour is the same. But KI? None of the terms in KI are standards. Not every person consumes the same products. Not every product took the same energy to produce, ship, store, etc. Not every energy producer emits the same percentage of CO2. And GDP ignores trade.
Some say KI is useful for seeing what happens if you change one term and keep the others the same. Consider changing from coal to nuclear to reduce the last term. It’s not magic. You need people and machines and materials and a lot of energy and time to construct the new plant to replace the old, so to reduce the term I’ve increased emissions! Meanwhile the coefficients of KI are changing (population, consumer demand, efficiency of mechanization, and fuel costs increasing) so by the time I turn on the nuclear plant and shut down the coal one, I can’t just adjust one term of the KI I was using in the beginning. I would have to discover the new coefficients of each term during the grand opening.
I don’t even see KI as a way to “tag” CO2 to people. It only looks at domestic products. Considering that the contents of a can of corn could vary from local to foreign from one day to the next depending on the season and commodity prices and more, I’d love to know how you calculate products per energy. People emit CO2 not just in producing products, but consuming them too. People also do stuff that removes CO2 out of the air.
But are the uses suggested above all straw men? What am I missing?
Willis Eschenbach says (July 13, 2014 at 12:57 am): “However, the GDP appears in both the numerator and the denominator, so the net result is unchanged. We’ve totally restructured the economy, we’ve converted huge amounts of energy from being “wasted” on holidays to actually producing something … and yet it makes no difference at all to the Kaya Identity. It looks just like when we started.”
Touché!