Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
It’s morning here in Reno, and I thought I’d write a bit more about the Kaya Identity and the Beer Identity. My last post about the Kaya Identity was controversial, and I wanted to see if I could clarify my point. On the last thread, a commenter did a good job of laying out the objections to my work:
Sorry but I think you’ve all entirely misunderstood the point of the identity. The Kaya identity is a means of communicating the factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions.
These are analogous to mathematical factors, for e.g. 6 = 3 x 2. This illustrates that 2 and 3 are factors of 6. This doesn’t prove anything mathematically – it’s just an identity. But it is informative nonetheless. It tells you that 6 can be broken down into factors of 2 and 3. In the same way, CO2 emissions can be broken down into factors of population, GDP per population, energy per population, and CO2 emissions per energy.
That is a very clear and succinct description of what the Kaya Identity is supposed to do. The only problem is … it doesn’t do that.
Let me take another shot at explaining why. To start with, the Kaya Identity states:
where “CO2 emissions” are the CO2 emissions of say a given country; “Population” is the population of that country; “GDP” is gross domestic production of the country, which is the total value of all the goods and services produced; and “Energy” is energy consumed by the country.
The Beer Identity, on the other hand, states the following:
Where all of the other variables have the same value as in the Kaya Identity, and “GBP” is gross beer production by the country.
I think that everyone would agree with those two definitions. They would also agree that both of them are clearly true.
Now, as the commenter said above, when we write
6 = 3 x 2
it tells us that six can be broken into factors of three and two. Not only that, but we can say that for example
(6 * 0.9) = 3 x (2 * 0.9)
That is to say, if we change one of the factors by e.g. multiplying it times 0.9, the total also changes by multiplying it by 0.9.
But is that true of the Beer Identity? Suppose we get more efficient at producing beer, so that it only takes 90& of the energy to make the same amount of beer. Will this decrease our CO2 production by 10%, such that
Well … no. It’s obvious that changing our beer production to make it 10% more energy-efficient will NOT reduce CO2 emissions by 10%. In other words, despite it being unquestionably true, we have no guarantee at all that such an identity actually reflects real world conditions. And the reason why it is not true is that it doesn’t include all of the factors that go into the emission of the CO2, it only includes the beer.
Now, I can hear you thinking that, well, it doesn’t work for gross beer production, but it does work for gross domestic production.
And up until yesterday, I was convinced that the Kaya Identity doesn’t work for GDP any more than it works for GBP … but I couldn’t figure out why. Then yesterday, as I was driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with the gorgeous ex-fiancee, I realized the factor that is missing from the Kaya Identity is … me, driving along the Lincoln Highway on my holiday with my gorgeous ex-fiancee.
The problem is … I’m burning energy, and I’m emitting CO2, but I’m not part of the GDP. I’m not producing anything with that energy—no goods, no services, nothing. My CO2 emission is a part of the total, but it is not included in the Kaya Identity anywhere.
So in fact, the Kaya Identity does NOT tell us the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised, in order to explain the physical levers that are available if one wishes to control an economy’s CO2 emissions” as the commenter said.
And that to me is the problem with the Kaya Identity. It’s not that it is false. It is that it gives a false sense of security that we’ve included everything, when in fact we haven’t. And because it looks like mathematical truth, we have folks who take it as gospel, and object strongly when it is questioned or laughed at. Steven Mosher thinks I was wrong to laugh at the Kaya Identity, and I do respect his and the other opinions on the matter, his science-fu is strong … but in fact, the Kaya Identity is no more complete than the Beer Identity, which is why I laughed at it.
So that’s my objection. It’s not that the Kaya Identity is false. It can’t be, by definition its true.
It is that it gives the false impression of mathematical certitude, the impression that it represents the real world, the idea that it identifies the “factors of which CO2 emissions are comprised” … but it doesn’t. This false certainty, because people think it’s “mathematically demonstrable”, leads people to not question whether it applies to the real world.
Finally, in closing let me repeat something I said in the comments on the first thread, which likely didn’t get seen because it was somewhere down around the five hundredth comment.
l hear rumblings that people think that Anthony shouldn’t have published this piece of mine, or should disavow it in some fashion. This totally misunderstands both what Watts Up With That (WUWT) does, and Anthony’s position in the game. The strength of WUWT is not that it is always right or that it publishes only the best stuff that’s guaranteed to be valid.
The beauty and value of WUWT that it is the world’s premier location for public peer review of climate science. On a personal level, the public peer review afforded by WUWT is of immense use to me, because my work either gets falsified or not very quickly … or else, as in this case, there’s an interesting ongoing debate. For me, being shown to be wrong is more valuable than being shown to be right. If I’m right, well, I thought so to begin with or I wouldn’t have published it, and it doesn’t change my direction.
But if someone can point out my mistakes, it saves me endless time following blind alleys and wrong paths. And my opinions on the Kaya Identity may indeed be wrong.
There is much value in this public defenestration of some hapless piece of bad science, whether it is mine or someone else’s. It is important to know not only which ideas are wrong, but exactly why they are wrong. When Anthony publishes scientific claims from the edges of the field, generally they are quickly either confirmed or falsified. This is hugely educational for scientists of all kinds, to know how to counter some of the incorrect arguments, as well as giving room for those unusual ideas which tomorrow may be mainstream ideas.
So it is not Anthony’s job to determine whether or not the work of the guest authors will stand the harsh light of public exposure. That’s the job of the peer reviewers, who are you and I and everyone making defensible supported scientific comments. Even if Anthony had a year to analyze and dissect each piece, he couldn’t do that job. There’s no way that one man’s wisdom can substitute for that of the crowd in the free marketplace of scientific ideas. Bear in mind that even with peer review, something like two-thirds of peer-reviewed science is falsified within a year, and Anthony is making judgements, publish or don’t publish, on dozens of papers every week.
So please, dear friends, cut Anthony some slack. He’s just providing the arena wherein in 2014 we practice the blood sport of science, the same sport we’ve had for a few hundred years now, ripping the other guys ideas to bits, also known as trying to scientifically falsify another person’s claims that you think don’t hold water. It is where we can get a good reading on whether the ideas will stand up to detailed hostile examination.
It is not Anthony’s job to decide if mine or any other ideas and expositions and claims will withstand that test of time … and indeed, it is often of value for him to publish things that will not stand the test of time, so that we can understand exactly where they are lacking.
So please don’t fill up the poor man’s email box with outrage simply because you think a post is not scientifically valid enough to be published. Send your emails to the guest author instead, or simply post your objections in a comment on the thread. Anthony is just providing the boxing ring. It is not his job to predict in advance who is going to win the fight. His job is to fill the fight cards with interesting bouts … and given the number of comments on my previous post about the Beer Identity, and the huge popularity of his website, he is doing it very well.
Regards to each and all of you, my best to Mosher and all the folks who have commented, and my great thanks to Anthony for the huge amount of work he does behind the scenes to keep this all going. I’m on the road again, and my highway CO2 emissions are still not included in the Kaya Identity …
w.
As Always: If you disagree with something that someone has said, please have the courtesy to quote their exact words. It avoids much confusion and misunderstanding.
kabend: Well, the Kaya identity is everything but a statistical analysis. It is a tautology. An algebraic tautology.
The terms on the RHS are to be determined by statistical analyses of states and regions. If estimated with sufficient accuracy (a practical problem), then the effects of changes in the terms can be calculated. The ratios on the RHS are to be output/input relations in the processes in the production of CO2 (links in the chain of causation.) There are indeed people who wish to lower CO2 by reducing the size of the scaling factor (population); others want to lower CO2 by reducing at least 1 of the ratios (energy/gdp or CO2/energy), but nothing in the presentation of the equation, or in the equation, prescribes an optimal policy. All it says is how much change in the LHS can be effected by changes in the terms on the RHS.
Oh dear dp:
The nonsense of grabbing numbers out of the air and plugging them into the identity, or suggesting changing one thing necessarily changes another is wrong-headed.
Part of the definition of an identity is that its equality exists for all possible values of its variables!
You must be able to put any value into any variable otherwise its not a valid identity.
For example in:
a^2 −b^2 = (a+b)(a−b)
both a and b can be replaced with any value and the equation retains its equality.
As such totally pointless, unless you are trundling through lines and lines of mathematical calculations, when the line you just wrote contains the pattern like the identity above (either the LHS or the RHS will do. As soon as you spot it, you can replace it with the opposite side:
If it helps your calculation.
That is the only reason I would use an identity.
Pattern matching to save work and intellectual effort.
If you say you can not perform normal mathematical operations on your KI formula then it is not an identity.
Matthew R Marler:
At July 13, 2014 at 2:26 pm you write
NO!
I could not care less if “The terms in the Kaya identity can be given operational definitions”.
I want to know the definition which specifies what terms should be in the Kaya identity and which should not.
Without that specification the Kaya identity can only be an expression of the opinion held by whoever presents it.
And I will not be satisfied with excuses for failure to provide a definition which makes the REQUIRED specification. The excuses are a proclamation that the Kaya identity is an expression of the opinion held by whoever presents it; i.e. it is disingenuous propaganda.
Richard
The real Kaya Equation is here and is used to model emissions over time:
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/kaya/
There’s even code but not data:
http://climatemodels.uchicago.edu/kaya/kaya.F
The units are correct, so from a physical viewpoint, it checks out. Some assumptions are made, such as exponential growth or loss in population, GDP, Energy or CO2 efficiency and there is also a small mistake in the code for exponential population growth, but otherwise it all checks out.
The main problem here is there are too many sites that simplify this stuff including Wikipedia and Manicore. Give me garbage and I will regurgitate it back at you like I did in previous comments. My sorry.
There are still assumptions made about the source of all the CO2. The paper I quoted previously only allows for 1% of non-fuel hydrocarbons in total consumption, but the “100 megatonnes” that Willis quotes is actually closer to 10% of China’s output, so there are real problems with how the numbers are used.
richardscourtney: I could not care less if “The terms in the Kaya identity can be given operational definitions”.
I want to know the definition which specifies what terms should be in the Kaya identity and which should not.
Without that specification the Kaya identity can only be an expression of the opinion held by whoever presents it.
And I will not be satisfied with excuses for failure to provide a definition which makes the REQUIRED specification. The excuses are a proclamation that the Kaya identity is an expression of the opinion held by whoever presents it; i.e. it is disingenuous propaganda.
If you won’t accept rubricks, won’t accept ostensive definitions, and won’t accept operational definitions, is there anything in science that you find to be adequately defined? Dogs and cats? atomic weight? the curvature of space-time?
James Gibbons says: July 13, 2014 at 2:50 pm
The main problem here is there are too many sites that simplify this stuff including Wikipedia and Manicore.
No, the main problem with the site you link too is that they use the KAYA identity as a “model”, something that would allow you to somehow “predict” (or as they say “prognosticate”) CO2 emissions.
That is complete *****, for a whole number of reasons, most of them correctly identified in many of the posts above.
Shawnhet:
Thanks for your clarification at July 13, 2014 at 2:22 pm.
I write both to thank you for it and to draw attention to it.
Richard
Steven Mosher says:
July 13, 2014 at 2:06 pm
“Firstly, can I just point out that your post is not just a clarification of your original point. Your original point was different and it was just wrong – there was no “stupid maths error”. If you want to be taken seriously as someone who is on a genuine quest for truth and reason, you could do more to acknowledge this.”
I agree fully with Steven Mosher and am now in the quandary as to what, if anything,I can reliably accept as reliable that is posted on WUWT by Willis. OK, an overstatement, I only accept what “I think makes sense”. But I’ve had my doubts about Willis for some time. . . now my doubts have been only been accentuated.
Way to go Willis. . . you know, it’s not all about your immense ego and arrogance! I dare say you have no inkling as to the depth of your ignorance.
Dan
As my wife would say if you fellows can do this for 380 some comments on this subject, you will live long.
Matthew R Marler:
I am copying all of your ridiculous post at July 13, 2014 at 2:55 pm because it is so daft it is in the Pete Brown league.
If you cannot give it a unique specification then you cannot conduct a scientific investigation of it.
That is why taxonomy exists. You mention dogs and cats. A definition which says a dog is an animal with a leg in each corner is not an adequate specification of canines.
And that is why I will not be satisfied with excuses for failure to provide a definition which makes the REQUIRED specification, and why without that specification the Kaya identity is only a propaganda tool.
Richard
No time to read all the posts, but consider this scenario:
For unspecified reasons, the cost of natural gas rises dramatically. Many people in northern areas decide to substitute the burning of wood in stoves or fireplaces for some portion of their winter heating needs. Rather than purchase wood, they spend their summer and fall weekends felling trees and cutting them into logs which are then burned over the winter.
Net result: the effect on GDP is indeterminate, dependent upon the elasticity of natural gas consumption and other substitution effects. i.e., the total consumption of natural gas would decrease, but any change in the total value of production is indeterminate here. However, the output created by weekend logging is certainly not fully captured by GDP figures outside of purchasing chainsaws, fuel, axes, etc. The most valuable portion — labor — goes unreported. Additionally, since some of that logging labor might be substituting for actual paid labor (e.g., a separate weekend job), it potentially represents additional downward pressure on GDP. Actual reported energy usage measured in BTUs definitely decreases here. However, since wood is a far more carbon intensive fuel per BTU produced, carbon output would almost certainly go up in this scenario.
The fact that the equation presents the inputs and output as an identity is thus negated. GDP, energy production and carbon output are all uncoupled in this case.
The bottom line is that there is far more economic activity that occurs than is captured in GDP accounting. (Think of the trade in illegal drugs, arms and prostitution to name obvious examples. Or for that matter, unreported child care income.) The equation smacks of “scientism”: lending a false sense of accuracy through the use of numbers and equations.
I can accept that one might be able to use the equation as some kind of baseline for the purposes of inter-temporal comparisons, but to pretend it produces some sort of valid absolute number is highly questionable. And its usefulness for the purposes of comparison would be immediately suspect if there were some supply shock as I described in my scenario, wherein the shock results in a radical change in behavior that is not captured by standard measures.
Cheers!
In case anyone is still looking at this thread, I have posted some graphs (one has actual data!) that show how the Kaya Identity might be used: http://mygardenpond.wordpress.com/2014/07/13/a-graphical-look-at-the-kaya-identity/
climatereflections says:
July 12, 2014 at 2:51 pm
[…]
BTW, what you should have written is M(Total) = C * (B/C) * (P/B) * (M(Individual)/P), as the M on the front is not the same as the M on the end.
***********************************************
This is good but still just a little bit more: M (Individual) must be the amount of M in one P. So the P’s can’t also be the same value either. Actually the last term should be M (Individual) / P (Individual). A rate that is not dependent on knowing M ahead of time.
His point is valid, let me provide a better example.
I can go out into the forest, cut down a tree, and build a bonfire. There is no impact on GDP, but an increase in atmospheric CO2. This works, even though I am not utilizing fossil fuels, because I have also reduced the size of the carbon sink.
Identities are useful tools for performing mathematical operations. But they cannot provide useful information, in this instance because 1=1 (which is known).
Daniel G. says:
July 12, 2014 at 3:02 pm
co2(Total) = pop * (gdp/pop) * (energy/gdp) * (co2(for a unit of energy)/energy)
***********************************************************
Units problem.
ton / year = ton Joules / year
Ruth Dixon says: July 13, 2014 at 3:21
Hello Ruth,
The chart you posted,
(pmhttp://geodata.grid.unep.ch/extras/posters.php#infographics_posters_bubble_charts)
proves my new and improved Kaya Identity (see 2:42 PM):
Human Prosperity Factor = population x GDP/pop x Energy/GDP x CO2/energy.
It simplifies to:
Human Prosperity Factor = Human CO2 emissions.
I call it the the Eschenbach Identity.
: )
Thomas (at 2.42 and 3.42pm), as you say, prosperity is linked to CO2 emissions at the moment, but more fundamentally. Prosperity = Energy, regardless of how it’s generated.
By grabbing numbers out of the air I mean grabbing numbers that have no relationship to the purpose of the identity. For example (seen above):
This is a meaningless but valid instantiation of the Kaya identity and does not represent how it would be used in an analysis. Secondarily, claims that changing one parameter (in nature) forces a response in other parameters. Yes but this is not a dynamic model.
I agree with your points but apparently made mine badly.
Ruth Dixon 4:02 pm.
Ruth, prosperity = energy so long as energy is not too expensive. I once calculated that Americans use the energy equivalent of about 300 oxen. Oxen are expensive to feed and require a lot of space. When we most depended on animal power we were mostly not prosperous.
Reply to Willis E. ==> In regards yours above. Your comment violates WUWT commenting policy as it is a personal attack and includes rank name calling — quoting your salacious words: “you nasty little man, I said that in the head post because I know there are sleazebags like you”.
As for my comment that “This is not the first time he has gone off half-cocked and shot himself in the foot with something ill-considered”, please refer back to your previous post re: Andy Revkin. Readers should review w.’s comments to his own piece for the full effect, it is quite a show–and judge for themselves. I believe my observation not only to be correct, but extremely mild given the cases in hand.
I freely admit, based on previous personal communication with you, that “Nor will it be the last.” is a prediction resulting from both past performance and privately held information.
Thomas, yes, but the same applies to your equality – it has to be ‘cheap’ CO2. I don’t think you are proposing burning diamonds to generate electricity!
Shawnhet says:
July 13, 2014 at 10:39 am
Ian W says:
July 13, 2014 at 10:11 am
“Sigh
If a country moves to all Nuclear/Wind/Hydro/wave power as its input is your ‘identity; true?”
Sign. Not the point at all. Countries can’t just decide to move to non-carbon sources of energy at the flip of a switch. Rather, it has to happen slowly and gradually, which means that something like Kaya could still provide a valuable picture of the world (in other words its math will not be “fake”).
You are wrong of course.
Belgium used to claim that they were one of the few countries visible from space as their surplus nuclear power capacity meant that all their autoroutes/motorwegs were lit all night. So Belgium creates far less CO2 for its GDP per head than say Poland or Germany that use lots of coal. Increasing Belgium’s GDP may have no effect on its CO2 emissions whereas increasing Poland’s GDP would do so.
If LNER nuclear fusion becomes reality – then the ‘identity’ fails. If GDP rises because of the banking or reinsurance markets, then the identity fails, Only someone in PR would think this was a useful exercise. It is the level of logic that said London would be feet deep in horse manure due to the increase in population and transport requirements.
The error comes in the definition of the terms and their relationships not in the maths. It is deliberately vague so each reader can get what they want out of it. It would fail validation and verification testing but who cares right? It is PR spin and was not intended to be testable.
richardscourtney: You mention dogs and cats. A definition which says a dog is an animal with a leg in each corner is not an adequate specification of canines.
You and I agree on that. I think you’d be hard pressed to find a scientific term which is defined to your standards. Most of them have ostensive definitions and operational definitions.
dp @10:00am:
“Willis is punching above his weight here and has disqualified himself from ever criticizing the mathematical work of anyone else. His wiggling where there is no wiggle room is surely drawing laughter from Anthony’s peers. His errors are the platform upon which other uninformed people chant the same wrong conclusion: CO2 = CO2! There will be no gracious mea culpa, no apologies to math teachers everywhere for confusing their students, no clarification as emergent phenomena of his failure. The hole he’s dug here is deep enough to be considered one of the wonders of the world. The Willis Eschenbach by-line is now junk stock.”
—–
You are going a bridge too far. Yes, Willis cited to an incorrect version of the Kaya equation, which got him off on the wrong foot. *However,* there are other sources, including Wikipedia and some published papers I’ve seen which present the Kaya Identity essentially as Willis has written it. In that form, it is a joke, an absurdity, laughable, useless. Willis should sneer at such an equation. So should every other rational individual. (Embarrassingly, there are many people on this thread who think they need to dig in their heels and defend an indefensible equation on the mistaken idea that because it is called an “identity” magic can happen, allowing us to imagine that canceling equivalent terms on the same side of an equation is somehow meaningful . It is not. It is nonsense.)
In my humble opinion, Willis should admit that he took the Kaya equation (from wherever he got it) without looking at how it is actually used in practice. He should apologize for jumping the gun. I would personally think him a better man for doing so and for providing an update to this thread which got wrong-footed from the outset due to an incorrect description of what the Kaya equation actually is. If he were to post an update to the thread, it might also (mercifully) help us avoid the numerous red-herring comments this thread is generating.
However, that said, Willis is not the first one to list the Kaya equation the wrong way. In addition, his other questions about whether the Kaya equation in fact captures real-world realities are useful, relevant questions, regardless of one’s assessment on that substantive point. So to say that he has no credibility and is “junk stock” is going a bridge too far.
Ruth, Yes, you’re correct. My wife would not let me burn diamonds. Not even a small one.