Claim: Putting a price tag on the 2°C climate target no more expensive than fossil fuels

Addressing climate change will require substantial new investment in low-carbon energy and energy efficiency – but no more than what is currently spent on today’s fossil-dominated energy system, according to new research from IIASA and partners.

To limit climate change to 2° Celsius, low-carbon energy options will need additional investments of about US $800 billion a year globally from now to mid-century, according to a new study published in the journal Climate Change Economics. But much of that capital could come from shifting subsidies and investments away from fossil fuels and associated technologies. Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.

“We know that if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, we need to drastically transform our energy system,” says IIASA researcher David McCollum, who led the study. “This is a comprehensive analysis to show how much investment capital is needed to successfully make that transition.”

The study, part of a larger EU research project examining the implications and implementation needs of climate policies consistent with the internationally agreed 2° C target, compared the results from six separate global energy-economic models, each with regional- and country-level detail. The authors examined future scenarios for energy investment based on a variety of factors, including technology progress, efficiency potential, economics, regional socio-economic development, and climate policy.

Investments in clean energy currently total around $200 to 250 billion per year, and reference scenarios show that with climate policies currently on the books, this is likely to grow to around $400 billion. However, the amount needed to limit climate change to the 2° target amounts to around $1200 billion, the study shows.

The energy investments needed to address climate change continue to be an area of large uncertainty. By comparing the results from multiple models, the scientists were able to better define the costs of addressing climate change.

“Many countries say that they’re on board with the a target of  2° Celsius global mean temperature stabilization by 2100; some have even made commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But until now, it hasn’t been very clear how to get to that point, at least from an investment point of view. It’s high time we think about how much capital is needed for new power plants, biofuel refineries, efficient vehicles, and other technologies—and where those dollars need to flow—so that we get the emissions reductions we want,” says McCollum.

IIASA Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi, another study co-author and project leader, says, “Given that energy-supply technologies and infrastructure are characterized by long lifetimes of 30 to 60 years or more, there’s a considerable amount of technological inertia in the system that could impede a rapid transformation. That’s why the energy investment decisions of the next several years are so important: because they will shape the direction of the energy transition path for many years to come.”

The study shows that the greatest investments will be needed in rapidly developing countries, namely in Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

“Energy investment in these countries is poised to increase substantially anyway. But if we’re serious about addressing climate change, we must find ways to direct more investment to these key regions. Clever policy designs, including carbon pricing mechanisms, can help.” says Massimo Tavoni, researcher at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, a climate research center in Italy, and overall coordinator of the LIMITS project, of which the new study is a part.

The researchers note that their analysis of future investment costs does not attempt to quantify the potentially major fuel savings from switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy. As shown in the IIASA-led Global Energy Assessment, such savings could offset a considerable share of increased investment on a global scale.

This study provided an important input into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group III, Chapter 16 on Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues.

About the LIMITS project

This study was conducted as part of the Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of Required Tight Emissions Control Strategies (LIMITS) project, a European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP-7)-supported collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Italy, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, the, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Central European University, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute in China, the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in the US.

Reference

McCollum D, Nagai Y, Riahi K, Marangoni G, Calvin K, Pietzcker R, Van Vliet J, van der Zwaaan B. (2014). Energy investments under climate policy: a comparison of global models. Climate Change Economics Vol. 04, No. 04. DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400101

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ferdberple
July 3, 2014 6:32 am

WASHINGTON (CBS DC) – Physics professor and climate change expert Dr. Christopher Keating is offering a $30,000 reward to anyone who can disprove that man-made climate change is real.
==========
He failed to define “man-made climate change”. Only a fool would think that cutting down forests and jungles and replacing them with farms and cities has no effect on climate.
The question isn’t climate change, but rather how to solve it. How do you get rid of farms and cities without the mass starvation and death such great minds as Pol Pot, Stalin and Mao were famous for?
The simple answer is you cannot. There is no way we can feed and house 7+ billion people without changing the climate. No matter what we may wish. Thus, we are left with only two possible solutions. Either we get rid of the people, or we learn to live with climate change.
Because in the end, it is because we have farms and cities now covering 40% of the land’s surface that we are changing the climate. CO2 is simply a by-product of this human activity, not an objective. The driving force is the farms and cities, within the limits of existing technology.
Climate science fails to grasp this. They see CO2 as a climate driver, but fail to grasp that it is economic activity that drives “man-made climate change”, with CO2 a by-product of our technology at this point in history.

Ivor Ward
July 3, 2014 6:35 am

This reference to the $500 billion subsidy uses the same logic as my ex wife. She would go out and buy something for $500 with a discount of $150 and then go and spend the $150 dollars with another discount of $50 thus saving a total of $200 in the day to spend tomorrow. Sounds like the perpetrators of this rubbish think that there is $500 billion floating around ready for them to spend on their junk technology. Can you divorce Academic idiots as well?

Lancifer
July 3, 2014 6:42 am

It is all about energy flux density and oil, gas and coal have it and wind and sunlight do not. It is that simple.- Truthseeker

This obvious fact should be enough to end most of the discussion of “alternative” fuels.
Fossil fuels have lifted humanity out of the drudgery and muck it endured for most of it’s existance and these “green” clowns want to drag us back into it.
Nuclear energy is the sole fuel source that has the potential energy density to replace fossil fuels and of course the vast majority of these carbonphobic fools are against it as well.

ferdberple
July 3, 2014 6:47 am

Can you divorce Academic idiots as well?
===========
I’m surprised she didn’t buy more. The more you buy, the more you save, until eventually you make a profit with every purchase and can quite your job and retire to a life of shopping.

Bill_W
July 3, 2014 6:48 am

If they underestimate the true cost and overestimate the true amount of energy from renewables (as well as underestimating the negatives such as higher food prices, burning down forests, heavy metals in solar manufacturing, etc) as they have done in the past, the true cost could be 3-5X instead of just 2-3X. In addition, I believe they are counting standard tax accounting that all firms in the US get as if they were “subsidies”. Personally, I would like to get rid of most true subsidies, but let’s be honest about what is meant by a subsidy.

Jeremy
July 3, 2014 6:49 am

“Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.”
Total BS. Absolute complete and utter lies.
Fossil fuels generate the largest tax receipts of any industry. Royalties etc. & consumer taxes make them easily one of the highest taxed industries in the world.
Just ask yourself when was the last time an oil company got a subsidy to produce or refine oil below cost? Never! It just doesn’t happen. A tax break on investments or reduced tax due to high operating cost – sure but these are not subsidies, like all activities, tax tends to be weighted towards profits – quote normal.
http://www.api.org/policy-and-issues/policy-items/taxes/~/media/Files/Policy/Taxes/Oil-Natural-Gas-Industry-Pays-Its-Fair-Share-Taxes.ashx

ferdberple
July 3, 2014 6:57 am

I suspect part of the “subsidy” is related to the uncompensated costs that the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere is presumed to impose on economies.
===================
Certainly that is the position of China and the third world. By polluting the atmosphere with Carbon Pollution for so many years, the US owes the rest of the world massive reparations for the harm they have done to other economies.
Now that the EPA and US Supreme Court has recognize Carbon Pollution as harmful, the US doesn’t have a leg to stand on and will need to go cap in hand to China for the money. China will have conquered the US without firing a shot. Sun Tzu and the Art of War. China 500 BC. The best strategy for winning a war is to conquer your enemy without having to go to war.

rogerknights
July 3, 2014 7:01 am

Here are some posts from the past (on WUWT) wrt subsidies:
================

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/04/08/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-86/
Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Connie Hedegaard, the EU Commissioner for Climate Action, has an essay demanding that countries stop subsidizing fossil fuels. She states: “According to the IEA, fossil-fuel subsidies rose by almost 30%, to $523 billion, in 2011. Meanwhile, the UN Environment Program reports that global investment in renewable energy totaled only $257 billion in 2011.”
Ms Hedegaard fails to state that the IEA study she cites shows the vast bulk of fossil fuel subsidies occur in developing countries, not in developed Western nations. In descending order, the five countries with the greatest fossil fuel subsidies are: Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, India and China. The omission is all too typical among Western green bureaucrats and Ms. Hedegaard’s logic is far from daunting. Should a western country subsidize expensive, unreliable wind and solar because Iran subsidies gasoline? Please see Article #3 and link under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
HaroldW says:
June 22, 2010 at 10:33 am
there are some subsidies, but they are actually really small.
1: royalties paid to foreign countries and states are credited for tax purposes…. as it should be.
if you paid for raw material, it has be considered as expense.
2: research credit that is available to ALL INDUSTRIES is available to oil&gas. there is nothing special here.
3: govt pays poor people for heat. that is welfare. not a subsidy to oil&gas. That money can be used for electric heat, even if it is hydro electric or other “renewable” source.
4: investment credits available to everyone is available to oil&gas. where is the subsidy there?
——————
Jeremy says:
September 26, 2011 at 12:00 pm
U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., is proposing to end what he says are $4 billion a year in tax subsidies to the biggest oil companies.”
Firstly, all Oil Companies pay taxes on earnings just like any corporation. According to data found in the Standard & Poor’s Compustat North American Database, the industry’s 2009 net income tax expenses — essentially their effective marginal income tax rate — averaged 41 percent, compared to 26 percent for the S&P Industrial companies. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) concludes that, as an additional part of their tax obligation, the major energy-producing companies paid or incurred over $280 billion of income tax expenses between 2006 and 2008.
http://dailycaller.com/2011/04/25/the-truth-about-americas-oil-gas-companies-part-i/ .
Secondly, according to the ONRR, annual revenues from federal onshore and offshore (OCS) mineral leases are one of the federal government’s largest sources of non-tax revenue. In 2010, Royalty Revenue amounted to around $8 Billion
http://www.onrr.gov/
————–
Luke says:
September 26, 2011 at 10:44 am
Most of those $4.0 billion in “subsidies” are not specific to the oil & gas industry. They break down as follows:
$1.7 billion in Domestic Manufacturing Credits: Applies to all production companies equally. A reward for creating/leaving the jobs in the US economy. You can argue whether or not they can move this production from the US, since the oil is located here, but it is clear that they can move the exploration equipment to anywhere in the world and ship the oil in. There is no requirement that oil used domestically must be produced in the US. So given that, what other industries should we strip this credit from?
$1.0 billion in % depletion allowance: Applies specifically to the oil and gas industry as a mechanism for capital recovery. It takes the place of depreciating the assets in the ground. Of course we don’t like to talk about the dark side of this one, which is when oil prices are lower for a sustained period of time, it acts like an anti-subsidy, so this one can cut both ways and at time has. Easy solution is to use capital base instead of income. Over the long haul though, I doubt this equals $1.0 billion a year. Just $1.0 billion a year in the current price environment.
$0.9 billion in foreign tax credit: This one again, applies equally to all. The dodgy part with this is classification of royalty payments as income taxes. Some foreign governments have converted royalty payments to income taxes, allowing for greater deductibility under US tax law. This, however, is not unique to the oil industry. So again, who else would you like to strip this one from?
$0.8 billion in intangible drilling costs: This one is specific to the oil and gas industry. This however is not a subsidy. Period. Exclamation Point! At best, this is a shifting of tax payments to later years. It allows the oil company to deduct their exploration expenses immediately. When this rule was enacted, it actually made sense because 90% of those expenses were written off in the first year anyway because of the abysmal hit rate for new wells, as opposed to the alternative which is adding it to the depreciation base for a new well. Now that the hit rate is much better, maybe it’s time to rethink the break, but it will not provide an $0.8 billion dollar annual windfall. It might provided a short term difference, but after 4-5 years under the new rules, you’d be pretty much back to the same annual number for “tax breaks” resulting from intangible drilling costs.
—————–
chris y says:
September 26, 2011 at 9:31 am
“U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., is proposing to end what he says are $4 billion a year in tax subsidies to the biggest oil companies.”
That $4B amounts to 1.6 cents per gallon of gasoline.
Did Schumer also propose an end to Federal, state and local gasoline taxes to ‘even the playing field’?
Did Schumer also propose an equivalent tax on solar and wind energy to ‘even the playing field?’
—————
Catcracking says:
December 3, 2011 at 7:20 am
One favorites of Pelosi is the reduction in royalities that was set up during the Clinton Administration to give companies an incentive to drill in deep water offshore in the Gulf when oil prices were low. Royalities are still paid but circa 20 % less. It was a good business deal for both sides at the time and improved for the drillers as oil prices rose. So now many of the tax and spend crowd want to change the contract and threaten those who refuse to comply with blackballing them from biding on new leases. How else can they make renewable energy sources look competitive?
Another item frequently referenced is the accelerated write off of capital expenses to encourage investment and boost the economy that is offered to every other business.
A third item is the foreign tax credits offered to all companies that bring foreign earnings back to the US.
—————
Janice says:
December 3, 2011 at 7:36 am
There is a hidden subsidy for both solar and wind power, one that could easily be avoided, but never will be because it is not politically expedient. The subsidy is the amount of money it takes to remove solar and wind farms once the parent company abandons them. It usually winds up being public money that is used, since the parent companies usually go bankrupt and are dissolved. It could easily be avoided if the parent companies were forced to post a bond equal to the amount it would take to remove the equipment, and restore the area. And that is a subsidy which coal and oil do not enjoy, because they are forced to remediate their mining and drilling sites.
Roy UK says:
December 5, 2012 at 8:33 am
@Alexandre 7.47am
Statement before the Senate Finance Committee
Subcommittee on Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure March 27, 2012
FY2010 Electricity Production Subsidies and Support per megawatt-hour
(year 2010 dollars)
Natural Gas, Petroleum Liquids 0.63
Coal (pulverized) 0.64
Hydroelectric 0.84
Biomass 2.00
Nuclear 3.10
Geothermal 12.50
Wind 52.48
Solar 968.00
So subsidies per MWh to Wind and Solar are 100 – 1500 times the cost of subsidies to the Big oil. You didn’t really think your question through did you?
Steve Keohane says:
December 5, 2012 at 8:38 am
Alexandre says:December 5, 2012 at 7:47 am
I’d like to know where the Heartland Institute stands in the issue of fossil fuel subsidies. You know, being non-Big Oil and all…

According to the link you provided $58B was paid globally in so called oil subsidies. In 2004, according to energy.gov, we in the USA used 140 billion gallons of gasoline, for which $70B in taxes at the pump was collected. And don’t for get the corporate tax on the wholesale sales, and the taxes paid by the oil employees to make the gasoline, etc. So where is the subsidy? Your so-called oil subsidies are smoke and mirrors, nothing more.
John M says:
December 5, 2012 at 9:11 am
Steve Keohane says:
December 5, 2012 at 8:38 am
Regarding the whining about fossil fuel “subsidies”, it would be interesting to see Alexendre’s opinion on these “subsidies” listed in his source:
Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (Petroleum) : 336 Million
Fuel-Tax Exemptions for Farmers: 1 Billion (that’s a B)
Strategic Petroleum Reserves: 1 Billion (Hell, the way that one’s been used, it should be charged back to the DNC as a campaign contribution)
Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (Nat Gas): 1.7 Billion (that’s a B too)
Credit for Investment in Clean-Coal Facilities: 370 Million
Amortisation of Certain Pollution-Control Facilities: 200 Million
Jeez, maybe they ought to count food stamps as a fossil fuel subsidy too, since they are used to buy food produced by those farmers who get those huge Fossil Fuel tax exemptions, or allow poor people to spend more to fill their tanks.
ralfellis says:
March 6, 2014 at 11:09 pm
Another Geologist’s Take says: March 6, 2014 at 11:31 am
The analysis to be fair needs also to consider the generous subsidies that the oil, natural gas and coal industries get from our governments. They are substantial and have been around for decades.
_______________________________________
Absolute tosh.
In fact, that is tosh of the century.
Those are not subsidies for the oil industry, they are investments.
In reality, UK government finances depend in a great part on the huge taxes that they levy on oil and gas products. Thus they know that if they INVEST a little money to open a new and difficult oil/gas field, they will get their money back in spades when the product comes on-stream.
With renewables, the government subsidises the infrastructure, and then CONTINUES TO SUBSIDISE the end product (electricity) through the Renewable Obligation Certificates – which are a shadow taxation scheme levied on your electric bills.
In summary, the oil and gas industrues get no net subsidy, because their production pays back taxes that are greater than the subsidy BY SEVERAL ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE. They are net contributors to the government purse. In fact, many governments around the world would be bankrupt within the year, were it not for the huge profits from oil and gas.
Steve from Rockwood says:
March 7, 2014 at 6:07 am
The IMF introduces the concept of “corrective taxes” for such things as CO2 emissions ($25/ton). These are a major part of their subsidy estimates. In fairness to the IMF they appear to lay these subsidies at the foot of government while you place them at the door of the oil companies.
Mario Lento says:
December 6, 2012 at 3:17 pm
I found this goldmine of information on total subsidies. Does anyone have any comments on the validity of it? I could not connect to some of the links to the source references.

http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/hardfacts-uploads/NJI_IER_HardFacts_ALLpages_20120423_v8.pdf
[hard-headed, anti-green, 73 pages, not much on subsidies per se

Jeremy
July 3, 2014 7:04 am

World bank report
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTPA/Resources/SunleyPaper.pdf
“The choice of tax rate reflects the typically higher economic rent in the petroleum sector.”

ferdberple
July 3, 2014 7:08 am

the potentially major fuel savings from switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy.
============
nonsense. oil, coal and gas under the ground are free. nature placed them there and didn’t charge a penny. what costs money is to extract them and turn them into unusable energy. exactly the same problem as faced by renewables. thus, there is no money to be made in “fuel savings”.

pat
July 3, 2014 7:15 am

of course nuclear is being subsidised in the name of CAGW. wind & solar are the PR talking points to keep the greenies on side.
30 June: UK Telegraph: Ministers must stop misleading consumers over true policy costs
The Department for Energy and Climate Change must be honest about the gamble it is taking
Ministers have guaranteeed the price they will pay green technologies such as wind farms and nuclear plants. That means that if the actual power price is lower than the Government has forecast, then the cost of subsidising these green technologies is much, much higher…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/telegraph-view/10937092/Ministers-must-stop-misleading-consumers-over-true-policy-costs.html
27 June: Reuters: UK awarded too much in renewable energy subsidies – NAO
Britain’s energy ministry awarded too much in subsidies to eight renewable energy projects in April – 16.6 billion pounds in total – meaning that consumers will pay over the odds for the electricity the projects produce, a parliamentary watchdog said…
The subsidies were awarded under Britain’s new contracts-for-difference (CfD) scheme, designed to boost investment in new power plants in the country, particularly low carbon emission generation such as renewable power and nuclear plants.
The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) defended its payments…
Last year the government awarded contracts under the scheme worth 16 billion pounds to EDF energy to help fund development of the Hinkley Point C nuclear project in southwest England.
The European Commission is currently considering whether the contracts for difference are compatible with EU state aid rules.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/uk-britain-renewables-idUKKBN0F12ZR20140626

kadaka (KD Knoebel)
July 3, 2014 7:16 am

Attn: Willis

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/publication/more_XO-13-043.php
Energy Investments under Climate Policy: A Comparison of Global Models
Authors: McCollum DL, Nagai Y, Riahi K, Marangoni G, Calvin K, Pietzcker R, van Vliet J,van der Zwaan BCC
Program: ENE
Publication Year: 2013
Reference: LIMITS Special Issue, FP7 LIMITS project
Available at http://www.feem-project.net/limits/docs/04.%20cce%20limits%20special%20issue_paper3.pdf

Also mentioned at:
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007813400101
“Volume 04, Issue 04, November 2013”
Name and Authors and Volume and Issue/Number all match, there’s only the understandable year difference (organization release to publication in activist rag).
I used the pre-made link at bottom of first URL. 391K, no problem, looks fine and complete.

earwig42
July 3, 2014 7:31 am

Or as the NCDC would say…. “… our algorithm is working as designed”

Paul Coppin
July 3, 2014 7:31 am

These people are stark raving nuts. Worse, they actually believe this crap.

mbur
July 3, 2014 7:35 am

So, I go to buy a few ‘degrees’ somewhere and when they give me my receipt, they also give me ‘climate change’.
Thanks for the interesting articles and comments.

Political Junkie
July 3, 2014 7:36 am

This may have been covered above:
The definition of ‘subsidy’ in these reports is a serious problem. If farmers are given a reduced tax rate on fuel, the government pays out no cash but reduces potential future revenue. On the other hand, if a wind farm gets a subsidy in advance to set up operations, there is an actual cash outlay.
Many of these reports [treat] the two conditions as equal. A layman sees them as being totally different.

John G.
July 3, 2014 7:37 am

The removal of a $500 billion subsidy is identical to the imposition of a $500 billion tax as far as a corporation is concerned. Corporations don’t pay taxes, they pass them on to their customers. So taking away that subsidy is the same as a tax on you the consumer levied through higher prices for fossil fuel products. Moreover I suspect these subsidies they want to eliminate are exactly the same as are granted many if not all businesses for various business practices and trade conditions and so singling out the fossil fuels industry to forego them is unfair and just a trick to punish a hated industry while raising the prices on fossil fuels to make them less competitive with renewables (though I doubt that would make wind and solar even close to being competitive).

Catcracking
July 3, 2014 7:40 am

“To limit climate change to 2° Celsius, low-carbon energy options will need additional investments of about US $800 billion a year globally from now to mid-century, according to a new study published in the journal Climate Change Economics. But much of that capital could come from shifting subsidies and investments away from fossil fuels and associated technologies. Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.”
We still have people out there who believe that by some magic of spending even more money on expensive and often failed renewable sources such as wind and solar they will provide the energy level currently enjoyed by using fossil fuels. That is not going to happen unless Europe goes back to the middle ages. Did they not learn anything from Spain and Greece economic problems.
Also the article is disingenuous since as others have already pointed out, there are insignificant subsidies for oil in the US. Note the reference is global where countries like Venezuela where the subsidies go to the poor people who could not afford $3.50 gasoline. Also China subsidies oil so that their industry can grow and sell cheap goods. Does anyone in their right mind really believe that these countries are going to kill their economies and divert their “subsidies” to build expensive “renewable”, expensive energy sources?
Another point the fossil fuel business pays huge taxes throughout the world including exorbitant motor fuel tax throughout Europe and massive taxes and royalties to the US Treasuries..
I doubt that this is included in the economic analysis in any way.

RACookPE1978
Editor
July 3, 2014 7:53 am

An example of OVERSEAS (foreign/third world oil subsidies) that the writers are (deliberately) trying to confuse with US policies!
Mexico’s Pemex to Spend $6B to Maintain Output at Cantarell (Oil Field)
Rig Zone ^ | July 1, 2014 | Reuters

“Mexico’s state-run oil company Pemex will launch a $6 billion investment in 2017 aimed at maintaining current levels of production at its once-supergiant Cantarell field over the next decade, a Pemex official said on Tuesday.
Discovered in 1976, output from the offshore Cantarell field once supplied over 2 million barrels per day (bpd), or more than half of Mexico’s total crude production.
But output at the field has fallen more than 80 percent since 2004 to hover around 340,000 barrels per day (bpd).
The investment will counteract the natural decline of Cantarell by squeezing out an additional 100,000 bpd per year via secondary recovery over the course of a decade, said Miguel Angel Lozada, Pemex’s Cantarell administrator.
Lozada said that Akal, Cantarell’s most productive sub-field, will be stabilized with the plan.
“By doing this we can make sure that Akal’s output will remain steady at between 180,000 and 200,000 bpd for a longer period of time,” he said.”

Pamela Gray
July 3, 2014 7:57 am

So we will be using that same amount of money to subsidize non-fossil instead of fossil fuel. Okay. But the overall price will still be higher because it is more expensive to produce non-fossil fuel. If we change to non-fussil fuel here are your choices:
1. Inflation will ensue as wages must rise to compensate for more expensive fuel in order to maintain standard of living.
2. The standard of living will decrease for middle class and lower if wages do not increase.
3. The upper middle class will likely reduce buying high-energy sucking leisure products, thus taking a bite out of manufacturing jobs.
4. Even more manufactuing jobs will go elsewhere because other countries will be able to make stuff cheaper using fossil fuel.
We win how?

catweazle666
July 3, 2014 7:58 am

“Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year. “
A lie.

Jimbo
July 3, 2014 7:59 am

All I see are models and assumptions.

We know that if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, we need to drastically transform our energy system,” says IIASA researcher David McCollum, who led the study……..compared the results from six separate global energy-economic models,

Sorry, but we don’t know. I barely read the press release and these alarming words pop out at me.
Here is what we do know when economists get to work.

BBC – 19 April 2013
The student who caught out the profs
This week, economists have been astonished to find that a famous academic paper often used to make the case for austerity cuts contains major errors. Another surprise is that the mistakes, by two eminent Harvard professors, were spotted by a student.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-22223190

BBC – 10 January 2014
“Only days before the 1929 stock market crash, one of the best known economists of the time, Professor Irving Fisher of Yale University, announced that “stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau”. Even after the crash occurred, Fisher insisted it was only a market correction that would soon be over. Losing most of his own fortune, the distinguished economist was as deluded as nearly everyone else. In case you’re wondering who anticipated the crash, two who did were the mobster Al Capone, who described the stock market in the boom years as a racket, and Charlie Chaplin, who unsuccessfully pleaded with his friend, the songwriter Irving Berlin, to sell out the day before the market collapsed.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25680144

Jimbo
July 3, 2014 8:08 am

The lead author of the paper is DAVID McCOLLUM. He worked on AR5.

Dr. McCollum is currently authoring multiple chapters of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Working Group III). In particular, he co-coordinates the material on co-benefits and risks of climate change mitigation, linking mitigation to other sustainable development concerns (air quality, energy security, land and water use, biodiversity, energy access, and employment).
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/staff/staff.php?type=auto&visibility=visible&search=true&login=mccollum

He moves from failure to failure. From the failed global warming projections to the soon to failed economics hothouse Earth models.

Jimbo
July 3, 2014 8:12 am

When did taxes on fossil fuels turn into subsidies?

John F. Hultquist
July 3, 2014 8:18 am

Folks here seem to know the difference between a subsidy and a tax credit. My local progressive can’t seem to make the distinction. He spends a lot of time driving between places for his work and listens to National Public Radio (NPR) and is indoctrinated in the climocleptomaniac religion.
———————–
Ivor Ward
ferdberple RE: shopping

Save and Free (as in, buy 1 get 1 free) are marketer’s magic words. Grocery store clerks faithfully will look at the cash-register receipt and tell you how much you have just saved. I look at it to see how much I have spent. I made the mistake (once) of explaining to the clerk about store pricing strategies (I have done retail) and why the amount she had just quoted to me was a bogus number. Apparently this is not an approved topic within the marketer’s handbook.