To limit climate change to 2° Celsius, low-carbon energy options will need additional investments of about US $800 billion a year globally from now to mid-century, according to a new study published in the journal Climate Change Economics. But much of that capital could come from shifting subsidies and investments away from fossil fuels and associated technologies. Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.
“We know that if we want to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, we need to drastically transform our energy system,” says IIASA researcher David McCollum, who led the study. “This is a comprehensive analysis to show how much investment capital is needed to successfully make that transition.”
The study, part of a larger EU research project examining the implications and implementation needs of climate policies consistent with the internationally agreed 2° C target, compared the results from six separate global energy-economic models, each with regional- and country-level detail. The authors examined future scenarios for energy investment based on a variety of factors, including technology progress, efficiency potential, economics, regional socio-economic development, and climate policy.
Investments in clean energy currently total around $200 to 250 billion per year, and reference scenarios show that with climate policies currently on the books, this is likely to grow to around $400 billion. However, the amount needed to limit climate change to the 2° target amounts to around $1200 billion, the study shows.
The energy investments needed to address climate change continue to be an area of large uncertainty. By comparing the results from multiple models, the scientists were able to better define the costs of addressing climate change.
“Many countries say that they’re on board with the a target of 2° Celsius global mean temperature stabilization by 2100; some have even made commitments to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. But until now, it hasn’t been very clear how to get to that point, at least from an investment point of view. It’s high time we think about how much capital is needed for new power plants, biofuel refineries, efficient vehicles, and other technologies—and where those dollars need to flow—so that we get the emissions reductions we want,” says McCollum.
IIASA Energy Program Director Keywan Riahi, another study co-author and project leader, says, “Given that energy-supply technologies and infrastructure are characterized by long lifetimes of 30 to 60 years or more, there’s a considerable amount of technological inertia in the system that could impede a rapid transformation. That’s why the energy investment decisions of the next several years are so important: because they will shape the direction of the energy transition path for many years to come.”
The study shows that the greatest investments will be needed in rapidly developing countries, namely in Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
“Energy investment in these countries is poised to increase substantially anyway. But if we’re serious about addressing climate change, we must find ways to direct more investment to these key regions. Clever policy designs, including carbon pricing mechanisms, can help.” says Massimo Tavoni, researcher at the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, a climate research center in Italy, and overall coordinator of the LIMITS project, of which the new study is a part.
The researchers note that their analysis of future investment costs does not attempt to quantify the potentially major fuel savings from switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy. As shown in the IIASA-led Global Energy Assessment, such savings could offset a considerable share of increased investment on a global scale.
This study provided an important input into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group III, Chapter 16 on Cross-cutting Investment and Finance Issues.
About the LIMITS project
This study was conducted as part of the Low Climate Impact Scenarios and the Implications of Required Tight Emissions Control Strategies (LIMITS) project, a European Union Seventh Framework Program (FP-7)-supported collaboration between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) in Italy, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, the, the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, Central European University, the National Development and Reform Commission Energy Research Institute in China, the Indian Institute of Management (IIM), the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) in Japan, and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in the US.
Reference
McCollum D, Nagai Y, Riahi K, Marangoni G, Calvin K, Pietzcker R, Van Vliet J, van der Zwaaan B. (2014). Energy investments under climate policy: a comparison of global models. Climate Change Economics Vol. 04, No. 04. DOI: 10.1142/S2010007813400101
WASHINGTON (CBS DC) – Physics professor and climate change expert Dr. Christopher Keating is offering a $30,000 reward to anyone who can disprove that man-made climate change is real.
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He failed to define “man-made climate change”. Only a fool would think that cutting down forests and jungles and replacing them with farms and cities has no effect on climate.
The question isn’t climate change, but rather how to solve it. How do you get rid of farms and cities without the mass starvation and death such great minds as Pol Pot, Stalin and Mao were famous for?
The simple answer is you cannot. There is no way we can feed and house 7+ billion people without changing the climate. No matter what we may wish. Thus, we are left with only two possible solutions. Either we get rid of the people, or we learn to live with climate change.
Because in the end, it is because we have farms and cities now covering 40% of the land’s surface that we are changing the climate. CO2 is simply a by-product of this human activity, not an objective. The driving force is the farms and cities, within the limits of existing technology.
Climate science fails to grasp this. They see CO2 as a climate driver, but fail to grasp that it is economic activity that drives “man-made climate change”, with CO2 a by-product of our technology at this point in history.
This reference to the $500 billion subsidy uses the same logic as my ex wife. She would go out and buy something for $500 with a discount of $150 and then go and spend the $150 dollars with another discount of $50 thus saving a total of $200 in the day to spend tomorrow. Sounds like the perpetrators of this rubbish think that there is $500 billion floating around ready for them to spend on their junk technology. Can you divorce Academic idiots as well?
Can you divorce Academic idiots as well?
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I’m surprised she didn’t buy more. The more you buy, the more you save, until eventually you make a profit with every purchase and can quite your job and retire to a life of shopping.
If they underestimate the true cost and overestimate the true amount of energy from renewables (as well as underestimating the negatives such as higher food prices, burning down forests, heavy metals in solar manufacturing, etc) as they have done in the past, the true cost could be 3-5X instead of just 2-3X. In addition, I believe they are counting standard tax accounting that all firms in the US get as if they were “subsidies”. Personally, I would like to get rid of most true subsidies, but let’s be honest about what is meant by a subsidy.
“Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.”
Total BS. Absolute complete and utter lies.
Fossil fuels generate the largest tax receipts of any industry. Royalties etc. & consumer taxes make them easily one of the highest taxed industries in the world.
Just ask yourself when was the last time an oil company got a subsidy to produce or refine oil below cost? Never! It just doesn’t happen. A tax break on investments or reduced tax due to high operating cost – sure but these are not subsidies, like all activities, tax tends to be weighted towards profits – quote normal.
http://www.api.org/policy-and-issues/policy-items/taxes/~/media/Files/Policy/Taxes/Oil-Natural-Gas-Industry-Pays-Its-Fair-Share-Taxes.ashx
I suspect part of the “subsidy” is related to the uncompensated costs that the addition of CO2 to the atmosphere is presumed to impose on economies.
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Certainly that is the position of China and the third world. By polluting the atmosphere with Carbon Pollution for so many years, the US owes the rest of the world massive reparations for the harm they have done to other economies.
Now that the EPA and US Supreme Court has recognize Carbon Pollution as harmful, the US doesn’t have a leg to stand on and will need to go cap in hand to China for the money. China will have conquered the US without firing a shot. Sun Tzu and the Art of War. China 500 BC. The best strategy for winning a war is to conquer your enemy without having to go to war.
Here are some posts from the past (on WUWT) wrt subsidies:
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World bank report
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTTPA/Resources/SunleyPaper.pdf
“The choice of tax rate reflects the typically higher economic rent in the petroleum sector.”
the potentially major fuel savings from switching from fossil fuels to renewable sources, such as wind and solar energy.
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nonsense. oil, coal and gas under the ground are free. nature placed them there and didn’t charge a penny. what costs money is to extract them and turn them into unusable energy. exactly the same problem as faced by renewables. thus, there is no money to be made in “fuel savings”.
of course nuclear is being subsidised in the name of CAGW. wind & solar are the PR talking points to keep the greenies on side.
30 June: UK Telegraph: Ministers must stop misleading consumers over true policy costs
The Department for Energy and Climate Change must be honest about the gamble it is taking
Ministers have guaranteeed the price they will pay green technologies such as wind farms and nuclear plants. That means that if the actual power price is lower than the Government has forecast, then the cost of subsidising these green technologies is much, much higher…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/telegraph-view/10937092/Ministers-must-stop-misleading-consumers-over-true-policy-costs.html
27 June: Reuters: UK awarded too much in renewable energy subsidies – NAO
Britain’s energy ministry awarded too much in subsidies to eight renewable energy projects in April – 16.6 billion pounds in total – meaning that consumers will pay over the odds for the electricity the projects produce, a parliamentary watchdog said…
The subsidies were awarded under Britain’s new contracts-for-difference (CfD) scheme, designed to boost investment in new power plants in the country, particularly low carbon emission generation such as renewable power and nuclear plants.
The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) defended its payments…
Last year the government awarded contracts under the scheme worth 16 billion pounds to EDF energy to help fund development of the Hinkley Point C nuclear project in southwest England.
The European Commission is currently considering whether the contracts for difference are compatible with EU state aid rules.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/26/uk-britain-renewables-idUKKBN0F12ZR20140626
Attn: Willis
Also mentioned at:
http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/abs/10.1142/S2010007813400101
“Volume 04, Issue 04, November 2013”
Name and Authors and Volume and Issue/Number all match, there’s only the understandable year difference (organization release to publication in activist rag).
I used the pre-made link at bottom of first URL. 391K, no problem, looks fine and complete.
Or as the NCDC would say…. “… our algorithm is working as designed”
These people are stark raving nuts. Worse, they actually believe this crap.
So, I go to buy a few ‘degrees’ somewhere and when they give me my receipt, they also give me ‘climate change’.
Thanks for the interesting articles and comments.
This may have been covered above:
The definition of ‘subsidy’ in these reports is a serious problem. If farmers are given a reduced tax rate on fuel, the government pays out no cash but reduces potential future revenue. On the other hand, if a wind farm gets a subsidy in advance to set up operations, there is an actual cash outlay.
Many of these reports [treat] the two conditions as equal. A layman sees them as being totally different.
The removal of a $500 billion subsidy is identical to the imposition of a $500 billion tax as far as a corporation is concerned. Corporations don’t pay taxes, they pass them on to their customers. So taking away that subsidy is the same as a tax on you the consumer levied through higher prices for fossil fuel products. Moreover I suspect these subsidies they want to eliminate are exactly the same as are granted many if not all businesses for various business practices and trade conditions and so singling out the fossil fuels industry to forego them is unfair and just a trick to punish a hated industry while raising the prices on fossil fuels to make them less competitive with renewables (though I doubt that would make wind and solar even close to being competitive).
“To limit climate change to 2° Celsius, low-carbon energy options will need additional investments of about US $800 billion a year globally from now to mid-century, according to a new study published in the journal Climate Change Economics. But much of that capital could come from shifting subsidies and investments away from fossil fuels and associated technologies. Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year.”
We still have people out there who believe that by some magic of spending even more money on expensive and often failed renewable sources such as wind and solar they will provide the energy level currently enjoyed by using fossil fuels. That is not going to happen unless Europe goes back to the middle ages. Did they not learn anything from Spain and Greece economic problems.
Also the article is disingenuous since as others have already pointed out, there are insignificant subsidies for oil in the US. Note the reference is global where countries like Venezuela where the subsidies go to the poor people who could not afford $3.50 gasoline. Also China subsidies oil so that their industry can grow and sell cheap goods. Does anyone in their right mind really believe that these countries are going to kill their economies and divert their “subsidies” to build expensive “renewable”, expensive energy sources?
Another point the fossil fuel business pays huge taxes throughout the world including exorbitant motor fuel tax throughout Europe and massive taxes and royalties to the US Treasuries..
I doubt that this is included in the economic analysis in any way.
An example of OVERSEAS (foreign/third world oil subsidies) that the writers are (deliberately) trying to confuse with US policies!
Mexico’s Pemex to Spend $6B to Maintain Output at Cantarell (Oil Field)
Rig Zone ^ | July 1, 2014 | Reuters
So we will be using that same amount of money to subsidize non-fossil instead of fossil fuel. Okay. But the overall price will still be higher because it is more expensive to produce non-fossil fuel. If we change to non-fussil fuel here are your choices:
1. Inflation will ensue as wages must rise to compensate for more expensive fuel in order to maintain standard of living.
2. The standard of living will decrease for middle class and lower if wages do not increase.
3. The upper middle class will likely reduce buying high-energy sucking leisure products, thus taking a bite out of manufacturing jobs.
4. Even more manufactuing jobs will go elsewhere because other countries will be able to make stuff cheaper using fossil fuel.
We win how?
“Worldwide, fossil subsidies currently amount to around $500 billion per year. “
A lie.
All I see are models and assumptions.
Sorry, but we don’t know. I barely read the press release and these alarming words pop out at me.
Here is what we do know when economists get to work.
The lead author of the paper is DAVID McCOLLUM. He worked on AR5.
He moves from failure to failure. From the failed global warming projections to the soon to failed economics hothouse Earth models.
When did taxes on fossil fuels turn into subsidies?
Folks here seem to know the difference between a subsidy and a tax credit. My local progressive can’t seem to make the distinction. He spends a lot of time driving between places for his work and listens to National Public Radio (NPR) and is indoctrinated in the climocleptomaniac religion.
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Ivor Ward
ferdberple RE: shopping
Save and Free (as in, buy 1 get 1 free) are marketer’s magic words. Grocery store clerks faithfully will look at the cash-register receipt and tell you how much you have just saved. I look at it to see how much I have spent. I made the mistake (once) of explaining to the clerk about store pricing strategies (I have done retail) and why the amount she had just quoted to me was a bogus number. Apparently this is not an approved topic within the marketer’s handbook.