I’m really quite surprised to find this paper in Nature, especially when it makes claims so counter to the consensus that model projections are essentially a map of the future climate.
The Hockey Shtick writes: Settled Science: New paper ‘challenges consensus about what regulates atmospheric CO2 from year to year’.
A new paper published in Nature “challenges the current consensus about what regulates atmospheric CO2 from year to year” and finds “semi-arid ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere may be largely responsible for changes in global concentrations of atmospheric CO2.”
The authors find links between the land CO2 sink in these semi-arid ecosystems “are currently missing from many major climate models.” In addition, they find that land sinks for CO2 are keeping up with the increase in CO2 emissions, thus modeled projections of exponential increases of CO2 in the future are likely exaggerated.
The paper joins many other papers published over the past 2 years overturning the “settled science” of the global carbon cycle.
Climate science: A sink down under
- Nature (2014) doi:10.1038/nature13341
- Published online21 May 2014
The finding that semi-arid ecosystems in the Southern Hemisphere may be largely responsible for changes in global concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide has repercussions for future levels of this greenhouse gas.
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature13341.html
more here: http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/
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milodonharlani says:
May 22, 2014 at 3:30 pm
====
I like that!….and it’s the most accurate way I’ve seen it yet
Has anyone researched the huge phytoplankton blooms off both coasts of S America that satellites recently discovered? I would think they might represent a significant carbon sink, as I believe they are estimated in the gigaton range.
You can sign on to Nature’s “double blind review experiment”. That’s how we got published last month.
As CO2 rises, the viability of vegetation grows substantially, especially in dryer regions. Increased CO2 can actually turn a desert into a grassland and, if more precipitation also occurs along with increased CO2, a desert can turn into a forest.
So, is that going to result in more CO2 sequestration by plants. Obviously yes. That is why the. Carbon uptake of plants, oceans and soils has increased from basically net Zero 100 years ago, to a net Carbon sink of 5.0 billion tons Carbon in recent years.
If you look at the individual numbers for grassland, it appears grasses are actually one of the biggest net sinks, probably responsible for about 3 billion tons of the 5, not tropical forests as climate scientists have perpetuated a myth about. But this is what they do, so it is not surprising.
A desert turning into grassland is one way we know vegetation is increasingly sinking Carbon. The deep dark soils of grassland and pasture tell a story. Why are they dark compared to sand? Carbon, not surprisingly.
Well, what does everyone who challenged me think of the responses by milodonharlani and Mike Jonas?
If you think this isn’t an important point, you are woefully uninformed about the green propaganda in the MSM, the alarmists blogs, and the general public’s lack of knowledge and lack of information on this subject.
It is you who are doing a disservice to this blog by capitulating on alarmist math.
Bill Illis says: May 22, 2014 at 5:32 pm
The deep dark soils of grassland and pasture tell a story. Why are they dark compared to sand? Carbon, not surprisingly.
——————-
Wouldn’t be a hoot if it turned out that intensive agriculture was primarily responsible for the increase in CO2 ? I’d like to see what happens when the warmist propose we stop farming. Pass the popcorn.
David Ball says: May 22, 2014 at 5:53 pm
Well, what does everyone who challenged me think of the responses by milodonharlani and Mike Jonas?
—————–
I think we are doomed because of the massive increase in methane /sarc
Mike Jonas. Please post your source for (Gt) of Co2. Funny that you think you had to “clear this up for me”.
I have stated before that the estimates for Co2 uptake by the vast boreal forests of Canada and Russia have been grossly underestimated.
David Ball says:
May 22, 2014 at 6:11 pm
As I’ve often said, until climate “science” is able to buy a clue as to the carbon dioxide sinks that exist in nature, CACA will remain voodoo at best, & probably worse than voodoo. Fundamental research remains to be done in spades before GCMs have a chance of reflecting however dimly the mere shadow of reality.
milodonharlani says: May 22, 2014 at 6:40 pm :
As I’ve often said, until climate “science” is able to buy a clue as to the carbon dioxide sinks that exist in nature, CACA will remain voodoo at best
—————-
Ain’t that the truth !
ALL sinks AND sources with numbers that have reasonable error bars. The numbers they use now, with perhaps the exception of fossil fuel sources, are “estimates” (extrusions of fundaments).
My favorite place, the Great Sandy Desert: http://pindanpost.com/2013/10/13/searching-for-heat-field-trip-to-the-desert/ flourishing vegetation, sequestering masses of wonderful catastrophic CO2, until the next regular catastrophic fire, often every second year, before once again a quick catastrophic recovery. Gotta love that carbon …
David Ball says: The difference is 0.0001, which, expressed as a percentage is 0.01%.
This is a dazzlingly fallacious argument. This particular fallacy is known as equivocation. You’ve used “percentage” in a different way than is ordinarily understood by humans all over the planet. The true percentage is the difference compared to the original concentration, times one hundred. What you’ve done is express the difference as a percentage of 1.0, which is utterly meaningless.
David Ball says:
May 22, 2014 at 5:53 pm
Well, what does everyone who challenged me think of the responses by milodonharlani and Mike Jonas?
That you’re incapable of performing elementary high school math!
Here’s a problem for you:
A substance is 99% water. Some water evaporates, leaving a substance
that is 98% water. How much of the water evaporated?
By your crazy math 1% of the water evaporated!
See below for the correct answer.
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/63108.html
Anecdotal evidence follows. Last spring I went back to the Cooper Basin in central Australia for the first time in 15 years. Previously i worked there for 7 years. My first observation which i commented on to old colleagues still there was that there was more growth. Not just grasses which come and go with floods and droughts but shrubs and trees were lusher and proliferating. So if someone else concludes that there is CO sink out there I won’t disagree with them.
jorgekafkazar says: May 22, 2014 at 7:11 pm
This is a dazzlingly fallacious argument.
————————-
So is the purported importance of .04% of the atmosphere, which is really what this is really all about. As I said, everybody knows it’s really the 1800 parts per billion methane that has everybody worried because it’s 29 times more active than that nasty CO2.
It has always bothered me why CO2 growth does not trend with emissions, using the woodfortrees app one can clearly see that CO2 growth rate appears to follow most temperature pulses. Unless I am doing something wrong.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst3gl/from:1978/mean:12/normalise/plot/esrl-co2/from:1978/derivative/mean:12/normalise
LT says:
May 22, 2014 at 8:18 pm
CO2 growth rate appears to follow most temperature pulses
——————
Yep, that is pretty much the several year old hypothesis of Murry Salby, temps and rain. See here for details:
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=murry+salby
Yep, but Australia has always been a sink, not just because of recent rains.
‘Australia has 149 million hectares of forest. Of this, 147 million hectares is native forest, dominated by eucalypt (79%) and acacia (7%), and 1.82 million hectares is in plantations[i]. Grassland covers around 440 million hectares of land in Australia[ii]. ‘
‘ Science tells us that the range for forests with continuous canopies is about 0.5-2 tonnes of carbon per year for each hectare. Grasslands may have a similar annual rate of net carbon uptake[i], but the long-term storage of carbon per hectare of grasslands is less than that over an average hectare in woody trees. ‘
http://www.chiefscientist.gov.au/2009/12/which-plants-store-more-carbon-in-australia-forests-or-grasses/
wiki says 2012 estimated emissions 430Mt CO2.
It is technically not a paper as the News & Views section in Nature are more like scientific news reports and are commissioned by the editor. It is also not peer-reviewed.
http://www.nature.com/nature/authors/gta/others.html#newsandviews
David Ball – Source of the Gt of CO2 is http://cdiac.ornl.gov/pns/convert.html#3
1 ppm CO2 = 2.13 Gt C.
1 mole CO2 = 44.009 g CO2 = 12.011 g C.
So 300ppm CO2 is 2.13 * (44.009 / 12.011) * 300 = 2,341 Gt CO2.
Hopefully, my arithmetic was correct, but in any case the increase from 0.03% to 0.04% is correctly stated as about 30% and is also correctly stated as 0.01 percentage points.
Pointing this out is not alarmist, it’s just trying to help, given that there has been a misunderstanding of mathematical convention. So please, everyone, a technicality like this does not make anyone “crazy” or “incapable” (such comments are decidedly unhelpful), and as David Ball was pointing out, 30% of a small amount is … an even smaller amount.
they still looking for the missing heat…. in the oceans, in the deserts, in the forests, under the bed….co2 keeps rising but no heat as predicted and no 50m climate refugees.
milodonharlani:
Your post at May 22, 2014 at 6:40 pm says
YES!!
I have been saying that in many places (e.g. WUWT, HI Conference, etc.) for many years.
Please see my above post at May 22, 2014 at 12:30 pm which is here and follow its links.
For now, I provide the CO2 sources and sinks which we considered to be most important – so we assessed – in our paper referenced in my above post.
MECHANISMS OF THE CARBON CYCLE
Short-term processes
1. Consumption of CO2 by photosynthesis that takes place in green plants on land. CO2 from the air and water from the soil are coupled to form carbohydrates. Oxygen is liberated. This process takes place mostly in spring and summer. A rough distinction can be made:
1a. The formation of leaves that are short lived (less than a year).
1b. The formation of tree branches and trunks, that are long lived (decades).
2. Production of CO2 by the metabolism of animals, and by the decomposition of vegetable matter by micro-organisms including those in the intestines of animals, whereby oxygen is consumed and water and CO2 (and some carbon monoxide and methane that will eventually be oxidised to CO2) are liberated. Again distinctions can be made:
2a. The decomposition of leaves, that takes place in autumn and continues well into the next winter, spring and summer.
2b. The decomposition of branches, trunks, etc. that typically has a delay of some decades after their formation.
2c. The metabolism of animals that goes on throughout the year.
3. Consumption of CO2 by absorption in cold ocean waters. Part of this is consumed by marine vegetation through photosynthesis.
4. Production of CO2 by desorption from warm ocean waters. Part of this may be the result of decomposition of organic debris.
5. Circulation of ocean waters from warm to cold zones, and vice versa, thus promoting processes 3 and 4.
Longer-term processes
6. Formation of peat from dead leaves and branches (eventually leading to lignite and coal).
7. Erosion of silicate rocks, whereby carbonates are formed and silica is liberated.
8. Precipitation of calcium carbonate in the ocean, that sinks to the bottom, together with formation of corals and shells.
Natural processes that add CO2 to the system
9. Production of CO2 from volcanoes (by eruption and gas leakage).
10. Natural forest fires, coal seam fires and peat fires.
Anthropogenic processes that add CO2 to the system
11. Production of CO2 by burning of vegetation (“biomass”).
12. Production of CO2 by burning of fossil fuels (and by lime kilns).
Several of these processes are rate dependant and several of them interact. And the rate constants are not known for most of these processes. Also, annual the rate of change to atmospheric CO2 (measured at Mauna Loa since 1958) shows small change with time (i.e. the recent rise in atmospheric CO23 concentration is approximately linear).
As I said in my above post, we demonstrated that any one of three natural mechanisms in the carbon cycle alone can each be used to account for the observed rise. Our cited paper provides six such models with three of them assuming a significant anthropogenic contribution to the cause and the other three assuming no significant anthropogenic contribution to the cause. Each of the models matches the available empirical data without use of any ‘fiddle-factor’ such as the ‘5-year smoothing’ the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses to get its model (i.e. the Bern Model) to agree with the empirical data.
So, if one of the six models of our paper is adopted then there is a 5:1 probability that the choice is wrong. And other models are probably also possible. And the six models each give a different indication of future atmospheric CO2 concentration for the same future anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide.
Data that fits all the possible causes is not evidence for the true cause. Data that only fits the true cause would be evidence of the true cause. But the above demonstrates that there is no data that only fits either an anthropogenic or a natural cause of the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Hence, the only factual statements that can be made on the true cause are
(a) the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration may have an anthropogenic cause, or a natural cause, or some combination of anthropogenic and natural causes,
but
(b) there is no evidence that the recent rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration has a mostly anthropogenic cause or a mostly natural cause.
Hence, it cannot be known what if any effect altering the anthropogenic emission of CO2 will have on the future atmospheric CO2 concentration.
Robert Brown makes the same points in his post at May 22, 2014 at 3:09 pm here when he writes concerning the Nature paper reported in the above article
And he concludes his post saying
which echoes the finding of our paper that I have here reported, and it is similar to the conclusion of my above post which said
Richard
LT:
Your post at May 22, 2014 at 8:18 pm says (asks?)
Yes, CO2 changes follow temperature changes at all time scales.
I refer you to the discussion in the previous thread which is linked from my first post in this thread. In that discussion I gave you this answer.
And I draw your attention to this post which I provided in that thread and it includes
I hope this answer is sufficient.
Richard
RayG says:
May 22, 2014 at 11:14 am
I stopped reading at the assertion that in the first sentence that CO2 is the main driver of global climate change. I also note that there are no citations to support this claim.
====================================================
Well you missed some improvement in admitting a lack of knowledge, which in itself is rare in climate science. However I do understand your reaction, as I had a similar one. What climate change are they referring to? No observable increase in drought, floods, storms, hurricanes, and a steadily growing greening of the earth. The benefits of CO2 are known and observed, the harms are theoretical, and largely failed by the observations.