I got this press release today Geophysical Research Letters: Different types of El Nino have different effects on global temperature
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence global surface temperatures, with El Niño conditions leading to warmer temperatures and La Niña conditions leading to colder temperatures. However, a new study in Geophysical Research Letters shows that some types of El Niño do not have this effect, a finding that could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming. Spot the bad El Niño in this example (not from the Press release, for illustration only):
PRESS RELEASE FROM GRL:
Different Types of El Niño Have Different Effects on Global Temperature
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence global surface temperatures, with El Niño conditions leading to warmer temperatures and La Niña conditions leading to colder temperatures. However, a new study in Geophysical Research Letters shows that some types of El Niño do not have this effect, a finding that could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming.
The authors examine three historical temperature data sets and classify past El Niño events as traditional or central Pacific. They find that global surface temperatures were anomalously warm during traditional El Niño events but not during the central Pacific El Niño events. They note that in the past few decades, the frequencies of the two types of El Niño events have changed, with the central Pacific type occurring more often than it had in the past, and suggest that this could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming.
Source: http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/PressRelease/pressReleaseId-110825.html
The paper:
The influence of different El Niño types on global average temperature
Sandra Banholzer and Simon Donner
Article first published online: 28 MAR 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059520
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence surface temperatures worldwide. El Niño conditions are thought to lead to anomalously warm global average surface temperature, absent other forcings. Recent research has identified distinct possible types of El Niño events based on the location of peak sea surface temperature anomalies. Here we analyze the relationship between the type of El Niño event and the global surface average temperature anomaly, using three historical temperature data sets. Separating El Niño events into types reveals that the global average surface temperatures are anomalously warm during and after traditional eastern Pacific El Niño events, but not central Pacific or mixed events. Historical analysis indicated that slowdowns in the rate of global surface warming since the late 1800s may be related to decadal variability in the frequency of different types of El Niño events.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059520/abstract
This looks like more plagiarism of Bob Tisdale – the “different” el Nino is simply what he has long described as the el Nino Modoki (different yet the same).
Update on ENSO: for the second month I have seen a “double take” on the published equatorial anomaly transect down to 450 meters:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif
This morning I looked at it and it showed that the Kelvin wave was almost gone – the inclined warm tongue had declined dramatically. But now, a few hours later – it’s back again to how it was before, with the warm tongue with unchanged intensity. Exactly the same thing happened last month – for a few minutes, a 450 m transect showed a sharply reduced Kelvin wave warm tongue, then it was replaced with a “business as usual” Kelvin wave. Has anyone else noticed this?
Is some activist manager at NOAA doctoring the 450m transects to hide a horrifyingly disappointing fizzle of the great 2014 el Nino? Or is there an innocent technical explanation? I smell a rat.
TAO / Triton 5 is showing a fairly wimpish Kelvin wave. (That’s the buoy array if I remember correctly which is being allowed to decay.)
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/sub-surf_anim.gif
More generally on ENSO, the trade winds show no sign of weakening. Maybe they are being sustained by the persistent cold SSTs north and south of the east Pacific equator. Nor any obvious sign of westerly wind bursts, that would signify evolution toward el Nino.
But I guess these will happen any day, right?
Still waiting for el Ninot… (nothing to be done)
p.s. is it just me or does the upper panel here …
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/weeklyenso_clim_81-10/wkteq_xz.gif
…look like an infrared image of a chap’s “meat and two veg” trying to get .. lets say, in the mood … but only making it half way??
I don’t quite understand a different type of El Nino. If it’s an El Nino then the surface water should be warmer. If the water is warmer it affects the heat transfer between the ocean and atmosphere. If this is not the case then it’s not an El Nino but something else entirely.
Reminds me, of how the polar vortex replaced jet stream discussion, last winter. GK
Ralph Kramden: The location of the warmest pool of water is important on where atmospheric troughs and ridges set up. A central Pacific El Nino produces an atmospheric pattern more conducive to a ridge-trough pattern that delivers cold air into the eastern United States during the winter.
Off topic but you got to look at this
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywood/2014/05/20/James-O-Keefe-Dupes-Hollywood-With-Fake-Anti-Fracking-Film
My thought: El Nino’s depend on stored heat to be El Nino’s and not your run of the mill Kelvin wave. If that stored heat is not being fully recharged they will gradually step down in their ability to affect global land temperatures.
BrianJay that is disgusting!!!!! But entirely predictable. I love Ed’s quote. Hollywood and Washington are one and the same.
“Pamela Gray says: I love Ed’s quote. Hollywood and Washington are one and the same.”
Hmmm…..
They’re not climate scientists, they are Climate-Hollywood Stars!
Michael Mann and Kevin Trenberth both play Miley Cryrus as they both love twerking data.