I got this press release today Geophysical Research Letters: Different types of El Nino have different effects on global temperature
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence global surface temperatures, with El Niño conditions leading to warmer temperatures and La Niña conditions leading to colder temperatures. However, a new study in Geophysical Research Letters shows that some types of El Niño do not have this effect, a finding that could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming. Spot the bad El Niño in this example (not from the Press release, for illustration only):
PRESS RELEASE FROM GRL:
Different Types of El Niño Have Different Effects on Global Temperature
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence global surface temperatures, with El Niño conditions leading to warmer temperatures and La Niña conditions leading to colder temperatures. However, a new study in Geophysical Research Letters shows that some types of El Niño do not have this effect, a finding that could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming.
The authors examine three historical temperature data sets and classify past El Niño events as traditional or central Pacific. They find that global surface temperatures were anomalously warm during traditional El Niño events but not during the central Pacific El Niño events. They note that in the past few decades, the frequencies of the two types of El Niño events have changed, with the central Pacific type occurring more often than it had in the past, and suggest that this could explain recent decade-scale slowdowns in global warming.
Source: http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/PressRelease/pressReleaseId-110825.html
The paper:
The influence of different El Niño types on global average temperature
Sandra Banholzer and Simon Donner
Article first published online: 28 MAR 2014 DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059520
Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is known to influence surface temperatures worldwide. El Niño conditions are thought to lead to anomalously warm global average surface temperature, absent other forcings. Recent research has identified distinct possible types of El Niño events based on the location of peak sea surface temperature anomalies. Here we analyze the relationship between the type of El Niño event and the global surface average temperature anomaly, using three historical temperature data sets. Separating El Niño events into types reveals that the global average surface temperatures are anomalously warm during and after traditional eastern Pacific El Niño events, but not central Pacific or mixed events. Historical analysis indicated that slowdowns in the rate of global surface warming since the late 1800s may be related to decadal variability in the frequency of different types of El Niño events.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2014GL059520/abstract
So, they are basically saying that “global warming” was caused by a sequence of the “right” type of El Ninõs, and not by CO2?
Good.
So they’re ditching carbon as the prime mover?
“So, they are basically saying that “global warming” was caused by a sequence of the “right” type of El Ninõs, and not by CO2?”
“So they’re ditching carbon as the prime mover?”
Lucius, Col, are you serious? That would be the end of their funding
===============================================================
Not if they are fishing for funding to study (and stop?) the CAGW type of El Ninõs.
Latest hype from NASA on coming ElNino
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/
Is this different than the El Nino Modokai?
No, it is very clear…
Global warming causes the right kind of el Nino.
AND
The right kind of el Nino cause the planet to warm.
Are strong El Niños becoming less frequent?
Using +1.8 as the minimum 3-month-season, and counting from the start year of the El Niño
1957, +1.8, then 8 years
1965, +1.9, then 7 years
1972, +2.1, then 10 years
1982, +2.2, then 15 years
1997, +2.4, then 17 and still counting…
these are magic El Ninos that can avoid the powerful catalytic influence of CO2. Amazing!!!
The flailing about of the consensus crew for any explanation for the lack of warming has reached new depths of stupidity.
As the observed temperatures fail to conform to the modelled projections, reality is increasingly rejected by these Team ™ IPCC members.
TimB says: “Is this different than the El Nino Modokai?”
Central Pacific El Nino events are another name for El Nino Modoki.
Alec aka Daffy Duck, you forgot the 1986/87/88 El Nino. The peak value wasn’t very high, but it lasted from one El Nino season to another.
CO2 is no longer the master control knob of climate change? Bite your tongue, heretic!
ColdinOz says: “Latest hype from NASA on coming ElNino
http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/19may_elnino/”
Thanks for the link. I didn’t notice any hype. The video is a reasonably non-technical intro to El Nino.
They seem to have scored an own goal. LOL
Too bad Banholzer and Donner (2014) is paywalled. It might be interesting.
The first type of El Nino is when the PDO was positive, the second when it was turning negative. So maybe it’s not El Nino that’s important but the phase of the PDO…
Haven’t we heard that before? /sarc
“A series of unfortunate events.” 😉
Maybe we had the wrong type of CO2 .Otherwise why should the heat be hiding next to the missing Malaysian plane ?
El Nino Modokis were not known about until satellites made viewing them possible in the late 1970’s. The first example clearly noted was around 1986. In other words, it has been roughly twenty-five years since the phenomenon was “discovered,” (though examining past records hints the El Nino Madoki is not a new phenomenon, but has always been around. Calling it “new” is like the Spanish calling North America, “The New World.”)
Why is everybody saying that this means CO2 is no longer possibly to blame? Haven’t el niño and la Nina always”overrideen” other variables? Isn’t that why we know the exist, because we can detect them?
Well Bob, you mentioned length… since the Supercalifragilistic El Niño of 1997, there has been 4 el ninos, all short, none lasting longer than 10 3month seasons.
Just a curiosity… Little Boys getting littler
indicated that slowdowns in the rate of global surface warming since the late 1800s may be related to….recovery from the LIA
Do these dolts realize the rate of change in temperature….depends on what the ambient temp is
In other words, natural variation trumps CO2 warming? It must because there’s “The Pause,” which is actually a stop until and unless the warming picks up from where it left off.
Why do continuing papers like these remind me of the Twilight Zone episone “Five Charaters in Search of an Exit”? Each of them alone and together continuously trying to explain the unexplainable, and never giving up regardless of their futility. Whether their explanations were practical or absurd, their formulated conclusions held fast — right up to the end. Serling was a genius in understanding the human condition.